3. A map of “Great Tartary” (Russia) and China, London, 1704
4.
5. The Russia-China partnership has developed in the past 20
years
One of the most important legacies of the Gorbachev era
1989: Normalization of USSR-China relationship
1992: Upgrading the relationship in Beijing
1996: Concept of Strategic Partnership announced in
Shanghai
1999: first joint naval exercises
2001: Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship and
Cooperation, signed in Moscow
1995-2007: Full settlement of the border issues
2002: Formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Economic and military cooperation
Same positions on most international issues, joint diplomatic
initiatives, growing coordination of foreign policies
6. Not an alliance (3 disappointing precedents: 1895, 1945,
1950)
But a new type of relationship between two major powers
What is new:
Context: globalization and multipolarity
Power trends: US in decline, China and Russia rising
The 2 countries, adapting to the realities of the globalized
post-Cold War world, are discovering more and more points
of common interest and concern and acting together
A growing factor in Eurasian and global politics
7. What is the historical norm for the four-century old
relations?
Very few conflicts (if one compares this relationship with
others)
Russia’s wars with Sweden, Germany, Poland, France,
Austria, Turkey, Iran
With China:
When Russia was expanding into Siberia: minor clashes
with Cossack settlers in the Primorskiy Krai, 17th
century
The Qing Empire was very strong at the time, it was not a
matter of Russian domination
8. Late 19th
century: Russia dominant, takes advantage of Qing
decay
Russia’s participation in the suppression of the Ihetuan
(Boxer) Rebellion in 1900
The conflict over the China Eastern RR, 1928
The Damansky Island clash, 1969
Indirect conflicts in Afghanistan and Vietnam
No large-scale military conflict between the two states
Russia is the only country with which China has entered into
an alliance with – 3 times over the past century
10. Parallel experiences:
Major setbacks for both empires in the 1840s-1850s: Britain
as the main adversary, the global hegemon at the time
Lost wars with Japan at the turn of the 20th
century
Revolutions and fall of the two empires (Russia, 1905-07,
China, 1911, Russia, 1917)
Civil wars
Alliance in WWII
Alliance in the most dangerous period of the Cold War (on
the same side in Korea and Vietnam)
Imperial revival under Communist regimes
11. Ideological affinity
1917 was a major watershed for both
Bolshevik anti-imperialism (incl. Russian)
The “science” of revolution
Systemic emulation (Soviet modernization model for Mao,
China’s market reforms for Gorbachev)
12. What led to the rift in the 1960s:
Out of phase ideologically – Soviet abandonment of
Stalinism and attempts at rapprochement with the US – at a
time when Maoism was just getting into its high gear and
relations with the US were on the verge of war
“Soviet revisionism”
Later, under Brezhnev’s more conservative leadership –
Full-fledged clash between the two foreign policies
Soviet hegemony in the communist movement, influence in
the 3d world
14. But then geopolitics began to play the decisive role -
Nixon moved to support Beijing in its standoff with Moscow
Triangular balancing
Relations began to normalize when ideological change
came to USSR with Gorbachev
15. US role
From 1970s till 2000s, the US generally regarded China as
a geopolitical ally
And it has built a massive economic relationship with China
Dissolution of USSR made geopolitical reliance on US
almost irrelevant for China
Meanwhile, geopolitical cooperation with Russia developed
Under Bush Jr., US tended to regard China as a rising
threat
And it put Russia under growing pressure through its
security policies
Shared Chinese-Russian security concerns about US
hegemony and radical Islamist threat
16. Today’s remarkable scope of cooperation with minimal
differences should not be surprising, because cooperation is
historically a more normal mode of Sino-Russian relations
than the familiar China-Soviet split of the 1960s-1980s
What brings the two countries together – and what
generates differences (not conflicts, not tensions, not even
frictions) between them?
17. Power trends:
Systemic crisis in Russia – successful reforms in China
Collapse of the Soviet Union – growth of China
Compared to the past, an unprecedented interplay
Late Qing – Romanov
USSR – ROC and PRC
18. Population, 2007:
China – 1,337 mln.
Growth rate – 0.6%
Russia – 143 mln.
Decline rate – 0.5%
If current population trends continue, by 2050:
China will rise the level of 1.5 bln.
Russia will fall to the level of 100 mln.
19. Population of border regions
Russian Far East – 7.5 mln.
China’s Heilunxian Province – 120 mln.
Maritime Province: 2.3 mln.
China: 70 mln.
20. China:
GDP, PPP – $7 trln.
GDP per capita - $5,300
Real growth rate pre-2009 – 11.4%
Russia:
GDP, PPP - $2 trln.
GDP per capita - $14,600
Real growth rate pre-2009 – 7.6%
21. Expenditures on R&D, 2003, % of GDP:
China – 1.3%
Russia – 0.3%
Number of people employed in the R&D sector, 1995-2003:
China: increase from 470,000 to 820,000
Russia: decline from 804,000 to 411,000
Now, China is offering investments in Russian R&D
------------------
Tatyana Chesnokova and Natalia Cherkesova, Rossiya – Delete? 2030 god:
Global’naya skhvatka tsivilizatsiy. M., Yauza-EKSMO, 2007
22. Comprehensive national power, Chinese calculations:
United States 90.62
Britain 65.04
Russia 63.03
France 62.00
Germany 61.93
China 59.10
Japan 57.84
Canada 57.09
South Korea 53.20
India 50.43
23. Geopolitics
Global level
Opposition to US hegemony and unilateral use of force
Support of multilateralism
Economic cooperation with all
Opposition to new arms races
Regional level
Demarcation of the borders (Russia-China, Central Asia)
Stability in Asia
Hostility to Islamism
24. Trade and investment
Russia to China:
Energy resources, raw materials, arms, technology transfers
China to Russia:
Consumer goods
Asymmetrical
Quality of trade remains unsatisfactory
Investment goal: $12 bln. by 2020
Trade remains a major link between US and China
Russia’s interest in technological development – China’s
offers, money, joint ventures
Symbiosis is possible
25. The volume of Sino-Russian trade is 2 percent of China's
total foreign trade, or:
1/10th the amount of China's trade with the United States,
1/9th of that with Japan, 1/8th of that with the European
Union, and 1/6th of that with South Korea.
Russia has sought to promote sales of industrial goods, but
China is not much interested in anything except
commodities and arms.
Common concerns in Russia:
Imports of Chinese goods are threatening whole sectors of
Russian industry
It is unwise to sell weapons to a large and dynamic country
that poses a potential strategic and demographic threat to
Siberia.
26. Ideology
Market authoritarianism (left-wing in China, right-wing in
Russia)
State-capitalist models
Defence of sovereignty in the face of globalization
Opposition to Western democracy promotion
27. Russia-China
Economic links underdeveloped, political relations
excellent
US-China
Developed economic links, political relations cool
US-Russia
Minimal economic links, political relations deteriorating
In this kind of triangle, Russia is at a disadvantage
28. Russian public opinion
..Russia-ChinaRussian public attitudes, 2007.doc
In a 2007 opinion poll, conducted among listeners of the
popular radio station “Echo of Moscow”, 74% endorsed the
opinion that Russia must conclude an alliance with China to
counterbalance the US. “Together, we’ll become bigger than
the Americans”, wrote one listener.
29. Germany, France, UK, other
Western European
countries
48%
Ukraine, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, other members
of CIS
43%
India, China 23%
USA 22%
Japan 22%
Arab countries, Cuba, North
Korea
8%
Don’t know 16%
“Which countries should Russia develop cooperation with
in the first place?” – Levada Center, Jan. 2011*
•http://www.levada.ru/press/2011032100.html
30. “China is a great country from which we should learn a lot –
qualities like resourcefulness, initiative, persistence, hard
work. I don’t understand those who see China as an enemy.
China is our closest neighbour and strategic partner. If your
neighbour is richer and more successful than you, you
shouldn’t undermine him – instead, you should try hard to
improve your own performance. Likewise, we Russians
should not envy China and foster an enemy image. We
should strive to reach the same level of economic
development and of national cohesion. Everyone would only
benefit from that”
Gennady Lysak, Russian businessman, provincial MP in
Primorskiy kray*
*Лед российско-китайских отношений тает, Konkurent.ru, 2006-01-16
31. Russia’s place in Chinese foreign policy
Not the No.1 priority
But a key partner
It is important to keep Russia friendly, and to team up with it
China is using Russia as backup
But economic relations with the West are far more important
32. China’s place in Russian foreign policy
Neither is it priority No.1
Relations with the West more important
Russia is using China as backup
Russia’s growing rift with the West
World public opinion on Russia
33. A balance of interests
Each other’s strategic rear
Gradually, the two sides are finding more and more uses for
their partnership
34. Academician V. Myasnikov:
“The level of strategic partnership, one rung below that of a
full-fledged alliance, has a number of advantages. Unlike an
alliance, the partnership does not make Russia responsible
for any of China’s actions, nor does it involve major
commitments which would limit Russia’s freedom of
maneouvre. At the same time, it does increase mutual trust
between the two countries. Finally, the partnership, acting
through the various geopolitical “polygons”, stimulates other
powers to try to develop their relations with both Russia and
China up to the level of Russian-Chinese relations. This last
point is currently more advantageous for China, but Russia
also benefits from the fact that other powers are interested
in preventing an even closer rapprochement between
Russia and China.”
http://asiapacific.narod.ru/countries/china/o_rossiysko_kit_
otnosheniah.htm
China, too, is wary of alliances, prefers more flexible forms
of relations
35. Power trends
Russia is behind, and falling farther back
China feels confident, Russia uncertain
China has the initiative, Russia reacts
Russia won’t be able to compete with China
Russia may be marginalized
Especially if its relations with the West should deteriorate
There is a logic in the idea of balancing out China
But such balancing out is considered by China as a major
threat to be neutralized
So, the balancing can only be done through multilateral
organizations
36. China is not afraid of Russia’s resurgence
It welcomes it – while the West is concerned
This draws Russia closer to China
In Russia, rise of China does generate some concerns
Asymmetry of perceptions
Still, cooperation deepens
37. Sources of problems
Competition for Central Asian oil and gas
Both sides’ interest in multipolarity, in balancing each other
out – may create distrust
For instance, if Russia moves too close to the US
Or, if China teams up with US to contain Russia
Trade issues: disappointment on both sides with quality
Russian concerns about Chinese takeover of the Russian Far
East
But: it’s a network-type relationship, not a hierarchy
41. Bad scenarios
A China-Russia anti-Western alliance
A China-Russia war
Neither is very likely
The prospects for the partnership are good
And the partnership poses no threat to others
It is likely to be a stabilizing factor in Eurasia
42. Amb. Denisov:
“It is a good example of how two major states belonging to
different sociopolitical and cultural-civilizational models
have managed to find mutually acceptable solutions to the
immensely complex and delicate problems inherited from
history, in the first place, the border issue, and to work out a
model of peaceful and goodneighborly coexistence.
Russian-Chinese relations have reached a qualitatively new
level, that of comprehensive partnership and strategic
cooperation.”
43. Amb. Denisov:
“Russia and China are two great powers and Permanent
Members of the United Nations Security Council. In recent
years the emergence at the global and regional levels of
new acute international problems, challenges and threats
has predetermined a multitude of new points of contact and
spheres of real cooperation for Russia and China. A fruitful
bilateral partnership in international affairs is based on the
similarity of national interests of Russia and China, on the
identity of approaches of Moscow and Beijing to the key
global problems - future world pattern, strategic stability,
central role of the United Nations, in international affairs and
so on. Given the attempts to use the globalization for
gaining unilateral economic and geopolitical advantages,
the upholding by Russia and China of the principles of
multilateralism in international affairs, respect for
sovereignty of states and the rights of peoples to an
independent choice of their development road has a special
importance.”
44. In 2007, The China Daily described China-Russia relations as "a
harmonious relationship with unique characteristics“:
"The two countries [China and Russia] are close without having to rely
on each other. They protect their own dignity with no intention to
subvert the other; they manage to resolve conflicts of interest through
negotiations on an equal footing ... and they are both keen on
developing bilateral ties with the US, the only superpower in the world
today, while opposing unilateralism," it added.
The wrangling that lies ahead in Russia-China relations can be kept to
a minimum if the two countries get used to their divergent foreign-
policy priorities. Fortunately for them, as the China Daily assessed
recently, their relationship has "more positive than negative factors".
45.
46. 2008: Settlement of the Far East border
issue:
http://news.ntv.ru/142253/video/
http://news.ntv.ru/160335/