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Risk in the changing world – Opportunity or threat
Helen Barge
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
2
Who are we?
We’re on a mission to take
consulting from dreary to
delightful. Our clients love
our friendly, jargon-free and
personal approach, but we’re
more than just happy faces.
We lead by example, holding
ourselves to high standards
of governance, risk
management, and
compliance.
Quite simply, we would never
ask our clients to do
something we wouldn't do
ourselves.
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
3
What does AI say about me?
We will come back to the
topic of Artificial Intelligence
later ...
AI is massively powerful, but
it’s critical that we challenge
the output and validate the
content as being true and
accurate.
Here’s an example ......
Helen Barge is a professional who has worked in various fields. Here is some
information about Helen Barge based on the real-time information:
•Helen Barge is the Managing Director of Risk Evolves Ltd, a dynamic management
consultancy specializing in risk management and operational improvement.
•She has extensive experience in the IT industry since 1986 and is considered a leader
in the areas of risk management and operational improvement.
•Helen Barge is also an author and has contributed to Risk Evolves' blog, sharing
insights and expertise on risk management.
•Additionally, she is active on LinkedIn, where you can learn more about her work
experience and education.
•Helen Barge is also a cookery instructor, emphasizing fun, health, sustainability, and
affordability in her classes.
•She is on Facebook, where she connects with others and shares her interests.
.
Overview:
• Reminder of the principles of Risk Management and benefits
• Dispel some myths
• Tips on how to manage
• Risks aren’t all bad
• A view of the external risks that are facing organisations – what are the
opportunities?
• What is horizon scanning
• Signpost to some useful resources
Risk Management Basics:
Risk Management Basics:
Risk Management Basic:
Risk Management – Key Outcomes:
Achieve Business Objectives through
• Informed decision making
• Supporting compliance
• Reducing costs / avoiding penalties
• Managing supply chain
• Driving project success
• Satisfying stakeholders
• Embracing innovation
• Protecting and enhancing reputation
Risk Management – Key Principles:
• Strategies, operations, projects, processes – and risks and events
• Change introduces risk
• Link to ‘the real world’ - and your core purpose and objectives
• An aid to decision making – consider the opportunities
• Keep calm, contextualise and be curious
• Communicate, communicate, communicate
• And it’s EVERYONE’S RESPONSIBILITY
Risk Management – How to mitigate:
• Tolerate – i.e. take no action but continue to monitor.
• Treat – e.g. physical, process or human/cultural change.
• Terminate – e.g. Don’t do it or do something different instead.
• Transfer – e.g. insurance, outsourcing or contract terms.
Note:
• You remain accountable for the risk even if you transfer it.
• Don’t forget residual risk.
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
11
External Risk Categorisation
External Risks are typically
categorised using the PESTLE
framework.
Ensure that you consider the
scope of your organisation
when using PESTLE e.g.
international influences,
sector dynamics
Additional information:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.
uk/government/uploads/system/uplo
ads/attachment_data/file/550691/To
ol_3.pdf
Political
Economic
Societal
Technological
Legal
Environmental
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
12
Key Global Risks
Consider information from
Trusted Sources
The World Economic Forum
produces a global report
each year on the risks that
are envisaged.
Respondents were asked to
identify up to 5 risks that
they believe are most likely
to create a material crisis on
a global scale in 2024
Source: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/digest/
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
13
A view of the UK risk landscape
Sources of external risk are
many and varied and will
impact organisations
differently, depending on
sector, client / customer
base, supply chain, skills and
a myriad of other factors.
You need to consider what is
relevant to your organisation
Source:
https://www.allianz.co.uk/news-and-
insight/insight-and-expertise/allianz-risk-
barometer-2024.html
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
14
Political Risk
2024 is a historic election year,
with elections in 50 countries
As close to three billion people
are expected to head to the
electoral polls across several
economies over the next two
years, the widespread use of
misinformation and
disinformation, and tools to
disseminate it, may undermine
the legitimacy of newly elected
governments. Resulting unrest
could range from violent
protests and hate crimes to
civil confrontation and
terrorism.
Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/2024-elections-around-world/
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
15
Political Risk
With this backdrop of political
change across the globe, it is
probable that there will be
changes in policy, legislation,
regulations, interest rates,
taxes etc.
Geopolitical volatility is the
biggest risk identified in the
World Economic Forum’s Chief
Risk Officers Outlook
How could your organisation
be impacted? Consider your
supply chain, technology
providers, resource
dependencies etc. ? What new
opportunities may exist ?
Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/2024-elections-around-world/
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
16
Cyber Crime – CNI
The governments national risk
register assessed the likelihood
of an attack on Critical
National Infrastructure (CNI)
occurring as 5–25%, and the
impact as “moderate”—
putting it in the same category
as a terrorist attack on
transport, a medium-scale
chemical or nuclear attack, or
a major contamination of UK
food supply.
Source: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5804/jtselect/jtnatsec/194/report.html
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
17
Cyber Crime – Your organisation
Ransomware is on the rise,
together with social
engineering. AI is an
accelerator.
The Prevent and Protect
strategy continues to be
challenged by a shortage of
appropriate skills.
Whilst larger organisations
typically have the resources
available, smaller organisations
are now being actively
targeted.
Source:
https://commercial.allianz.com/content
/dam/onemarketing/commercial/comm
ercial/reports/Allianz-Risk-Barometer-
2024.pdf
Confidentiality
Integrity
Availability
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
18
Cyber security and Industry
Consider the impact of a
cyber attack on your
industrial controls systems
AI can help us to better
defend from attacks, but the
criminal fraternity is also
using AI to develop more
efficient and effective means
of attack
Prepare and prevent remains
a key part of planning, but
respond and recover should
be priorities
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
19
Business Resilience
How would your organisation
be able to respond and
recover from an incident?
Consider factors outside of
your immediate control
Supply chain resilience is now
critical – consider lessons
from Covid. Test your plans
and include your critical 3rd
parties.
Remember – an incident may
last longer than 24 hours
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
20
Business Resilience
The purpose of any business
continuity plan is to minimize
the disruptive impacts of any
unplanned event or disaster
on operational ability of an
organization
• Be prepared for the Risk
• Reduce the impact of a
disruption
• Continue to meet
deadline in recovery
• Return to normal
operations as quickly as
possible
• Bounce forward, not back
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
21
Artificial Intelligence
Insurers see the development
of AI as a key risk in 2024, but
there are many opportunities .
AI can influence many other
risks, both positively and
negatively
You must interrogate,
challenge and validate
outcomes from AI. Beware
bias!
Consider the impact of new
legislation and case laws.
Read your AI policy
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
22
AI in the Supply Chain
Who in your supply chain is
using AI?
What are they using it for?
How could it positively or
negatively impact your
organisation
What controls do they have
in place?
Will you give permission for
your data to be used?
Source: Human Intelligence – Andy Whitely
www.hop-unlimited.com
AI replacing HI – Missing out on gut feelings & taste, smell, emotions etc..
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
24
Environmental
Almost half of chief executives
believe that their business will
cease to exist within a decade
without reinvention, with the
climate crisis being a major
driver of physical, reputational
and competition-related risks
according to a report from
PWC.
Consider reputational risk of
‘green washing’. What is
happening in your supply
chain?
How can the risk be managed
differently?
Source: https://www.edie.net/climate-crisis-forcing-quicker-business-reinvention-thousands-of-ceos-say/
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
25
Supply chain
‘No man is an island’ and our
network of organisations that
we rely on:
• Capita
• Royal Mail
• Evergiven
Growing need to look beyond
3rd parties. What is happening
in your 4th, 5th and 6th party
networks?
Supplier concentration
analysis required – legislative
and best practice
© Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden.
26
Horizon Scanning
Read, watch and listen to
information from varied and
trusted sources.
Be curious, think ’outside of the
box’, ask questions, build a
network. Consider impact of risk
velocity and risks combining.
Avoid:
• Group Think
• Hindsight bias
• Confirmation bias
• Affinity bias
What opportunities are available
if you manage risk early?
Explore the opportunities
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/
oct/19/english-winemakers-expecting-record-
crop-after-exceptional-conditions
Risk Management – Trusted Sources:
• Legal:
• https://www.twobirds.com/en/
• Society:
• https://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm
• Economic:
• https://www.weforum.org
• Environmental:
• https://betterbusinessact.org
• https://bcorporation.uk
• Other:
• https://www.mckinsey.com
• https://hbr.org
• https://www.iirsm.org
© 2023 Association for Project Management
APM London WiPM – 8th March Event
Inspiring inclusion within the project management
profession and celebrating individual differences
Date: 8 March 2024
Time: 13:30 - 16:15 GMT
Venue: ISH Venues London - The
Portland Room 1 Park Crescent,
London, City of, W1B 1SH, United
Kingdom
The event will kick-off with our fantastic key-note speaker, followed by an
interactive networking session. To round off the event we will have four
amazing panel members to discuss their project careers with a focus on how
they continuously strive to deliver diversity, equality and inclusion into every
element of the project world.
Speakers and Panellists
• Sheilina Somani ChPP RPP FAPM FHEA
• Nicola Benjamin - UKIMEA, Board Programme Manager
• Rosemarie Jenkins - Regeneration Team Leader, Camden Council
• Florence Hanlon - Senior Manager within Business Advisory Services,
Mace
• IJ Samuel - Director, Turner & Townsend
• Kirstin Polson - Contract Manager, Nuclear Restoration Services
• Louisa Baille - Masters in Applied Project Management, University of
Sunderland
• Irene Maposa - Senior IT Project Manager, APM WiPM Chair
© 2023 Association for Project Management
APM London – April Date TBC
Team Lead Succeed – Helping You And Your Team
Achieve High-Performance Teamwork
Date: TBC April 2024
Time: 18:00 - 21:00
Venue: TBC
In this interactive session, Nick will share learning from Team Lead
Succeed that can be applied immediately and make a positive
difference to your teamwork.
Nick will share the importance of knowing both WHO is in your team
and also HOW effective your teamwork is.
Speaker
Nick Fewings, MD of Ngagementworks, published Team Lead
Succeed, based on his 30+years of both leading operational
and project teams, and subsequently facilitating team
development around the world.
© 2023 Association for Project Management
APM London – 22nd May
How Project Managers Can Deal with Stress and
Avoid Burnout
Date: 22nd May 2024
Time: 18:00 - 21:00
Venue: TBC
Whereas short bursts of stress are perfectly normal and can have a
positive effect on performance, prolonged stress is harmful and can
cause burnout. Too many project managers are chronically stressed
and don’t take the warning signs seriously.
In this talk Susanne will share her own story of how she almost faced
burnout running a multi-year programme. She will explain the
underlying patterns that lead to burnout and provide tips and insights
from 15 years of coaching that can help you thrive and stay clear of
negative stress.
Speaker
Susanne Madsen is an internationally recognised project
leadership coach and the award-winning author of The Power
of Project Leadership.
© 2023 Association for Project Management
APM London Information
APM London – LinkedIn group
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8715128/
APM London Branch community page
https://www.apm.org.uk/community/london-branch/

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Risk in the changing world – Opportunity or threat

  • 1. Risk in the changing world – Opportunity or threat Helen Barge
  • 2. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 2 Who are we? We’re on a mission to take consulting from dreary to delightful. Our clients love our friendly, jargon-free and personal approach, but we’re more than just happy faces. We lead by example, holding ourselves to high standards of governance, risk management, and compliance. Quite simply, we would never ask our clients to do something we wouldn't do ourselves.
  • 3. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 3 What does AI say about me? We will come back to the topic of Artificial Intelligence later ... AI is massively powerful, but it’s critical that we challenge the output and validate the content as being true and accurate. Here’s an example ...... Helen Barge is a professional who has worked in various fields. Here is some information about Helen Barge based on the real-time information: •Helen Barge is the Managing Director of Risk Evolves Ltd, a dynamic management consultancy specializing in risk management and operational improvement. •She has extensive experience in the IT industry since 1986 and is considered a leader in the areas of risk management and operational improvement. •Helen Barge is also an author and has contributed to Risk Evolves' blog, sharing insights and expertise on risk management. •Additionally, she is active on LinkedIn, where you can learn more about her work experience and education. •Helen Barge is also a cookery instructor, emphasizing fun, health, sustainability, and affordability in her classes. •She is on Facebook, where she connects with others and shares her interests. .
  • 4. Overview: • Reminder of the principles of Risk Management and benefits • Dispel some myths • Tips on how to manage • Risks aren’t all bad • A view of the external risks that are facing organisations – what are the opportunities? • What is horizon scanning • Signpost to some useful resources
  • 8. Risk Management – Key Outcomes: Achieve Business Objectives through • Informed decision making • Supporting compliance • Reducing costs / avoiding penalties • Managing supply chain • Driving project success • Satisfying stakeholders • Embracing innovation • Protecting and enhancing reputation
  • 9. Risk Management – Key Principles: • Strategies, operations, projects, processes – and risks and events • Change introduces risk • Link to ‘the real world’ - and your core purpose and objectives • An aid to decision making – consider the opportunities • Keep calm, contextualise and be curious • Communicate, communicate, communicate • And it’s EVERYONE’S RESPONSIBILITY
  • 10. Risk Management – How to mitigate: • Tolerate – i.e. take no action but continue to monitor. • Treat – e.g. physical, process or human/cultural change. • Terminate – e.g. Don’t do it or do something different instead. • Transfer – e.g. insurance, outsourcing or contract terms. Note: • You remain accountable for the risk even if you transfer it. • Don’t forget residual risk.
  • 11. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 11 External Risk Categorisation External Risks are typically categorised using the PESTLE framework. Ensure that you consider the scope of your organisation when using PESTLE e.g. international influences, sector dynamics Additional information: https://assets.publishing.service.gov. uk/government/uploads/system/uplo ads/attachment_data/file/550691/To ol_3.pdf Political Economic Societal Technological Legal Environmental
  • 12. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 12 Key Global Risks Consider information from Trusted Sources The World Economic Forum produces a global report each year on the risks that are envisaged. Respondents were asked to identify up to 5 risks that they believe are most likely to create a material crisis on a global scale in 2024 Source: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/digest/
  • 13. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 13 A view of the UK risk landscape Sources of external risk are many and varied and will impact organisations differently, depending on sector, client / customer base, supply chain, skills and a myriad of other factors. You need to consider what is relevant to your organisation Source: https://www.allianz.co.uk/news-and- insight/insight-and-expertise/allianz-risk- barometer-2024.html
  • 14. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 14 Political Risk 2024 is a historic election year, with elections in 50 countries As close to three billion people are expected to head to the electoral polls across several economies over the next two years, the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism. Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/2024-elections-around-world/
  • 15. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 15 Political Risk With this backdrop of political change across the globe, it is probable that there will be changes in policy, legislation, regulations, interest rates, taxes etc. Geopolitical volatility is the biggest risk identified in the World Economic Forum’s Chief Risk Officers Outlook How could your organisation be impacted? Consider your supply chain, technology providers, resource dependencies etc. ? What new opportunities may exist ? Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/2024-elections-around-world/
  • 16. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 16 Cyber Crime – CNI The governments national risk register assessed the likelihood of an attack on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) occurring as 5–25%, and the impact as “moderate”— putting it in the same category as a terrorist attack on transport, a medium-scale chemical or nuclear attack, or a major contamination of UK food supply. Source: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5804/jtselect/jtnatsec/194/report.html
  • 17. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 17 Cyber Crime – Your organisation Ransomware is on the rise, together with social engineering. AI is an accelerator. The Prevent and Protect strategy continues to be challenged by a shortage of appropriate skills. Whilst larger organisations typically have the resources available, smaller organisations are now being actively targeted. Source: https://commercial.allianz.com/content /dam/onemarketing/commercial/comm ercial/reports/Allianz-Risk-Barometer- 2024.pdf Confidentiality Integrity Availability
  • 18. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 18 Cyber security and Industry Consider the impact of a cyber attack on your industrial controls systems AI can help us to better defend from attacks, but the criminal fraternity is also using AI to develop more efficient and effective means of attack Prepare and prevent remains a key part of planning, but respond and recover should be priorities
  • 19. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 19 Business Resilience How would your organisation be able to respond and recover from an incident? Consider factors outside of your immediate control Supply chain resilience is now critical – consider lessons from Covid. Test your plans and include your critical 3rd parties. Remember – an incident may last longer than 24 hours
  • 20. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 20 Business Resilience The purpose of any business continuity plan is to minimize the disruptive impacts of any unplanned event or disaster on operational ability of an organization • Be prepared for the Risk • Reduce the impact of a disruption • Continue to meet deadline in recovery • Return to normal operations as quickly as possible • Bounce forward, not back
  • 21. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 21 Artificial Intelligence Insurers see the development of AI as a key risk in 2024, but there are many opportunities . AI can influence many other risks, both positively and negatively You must interrogate, challenge and validate outcomes from AI. Beware bias! Consider the impact of new legislation and case laws. Read your AI policy
  • 22. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 22 AI in the Supply Chain Who in your supply chain is using AI? What are they using it for? How could it positively or negatively impact your organisation What controls do they have in place? Will you give permission for your data to be used?
  • 23. Source: Human Intelligence – Andy Whitely www.hop-unlimited.com AI replacing HI – Missing out on gut feelings & taste, smell, emotions etc..
  • 24. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 24 Environmental Almost half of chief executives believe that their business will cease to exist within a decade without reinvention, with the climate crisis being a major driver of physical, reputational and competition-related risks according to a report from PWC. Consider reputational risk of ‘green washing’. What is happening in your supply chain? How can the risk be managed differently? Source: https://www.edie.net/climate-crisis-forcing-quicker-business-reinvention-thousands-of-ceos-say/
  • 25. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 25 Supply chain ‘No man is an island’ and our network of organisations that we rely on: • Capita • Royal Mail • Evergiven Growing need to look beyond 3rd parties. What is happening in your 4th, 5th and 6th party networks? Supplier concentration analysis required – legislative and best practice
  • 26. © Risk Evolves Ltd 2024 Unauthorised copying and re-use forbidden. 26 Horizon Scanning Read, watch and listen to information from varied and trusted sources. Be curious, think ’outside of the box’, ask questions, build a network. Consider impact of risk velocity and risks combining. Avoid: • Group Think • Hindsight bias • Confirmation bias • Affinity bias What opportunities are available if you manage risk early?
  • 28. Risk Management – Trusted Sources: • Legal: • https://www.twobirds.com/en/ • Society: • https://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm • Economic: • https://www.weforum.org • Environmental: • https://betterbusinessact.org • https://bcorporation.uk • Other: • https://www.mckinsey.com • https://hbr.org • https://www.iirsm.org
  • 29.
  • 30. © 2023 Association for Project Management APM London WiPM – 8th March Event Inspiring inclusion within the project management profession and celebrating individual differences Date: 8 March 2024 Time: 13:30 - 16:15 GMT Venue: ISH Venues London - The Portland Room 1 Park Crescent, London, City of, W1B 1SH, United Kingdom The event will kick-off with our fantastic key-note speaker, followed by an interactive networking session. To round off the event we will have four amazing panel members to discuss their project careers with a focus on how they continuously strive to deliver diversity, equality and inclusion into every element of the project world. Speakers and Panellists • Sheilina Somani ChPP RPP FAPM FHEA • Nicola Benjamin - UKIMEA, Board Programme Manager • Rosemarie Jenkins - Regeneration Team Leader, Camden Council • Florence Hanlon - Senior Manager within Business Advisory Services, Mace • IJ Samuel - Director, Turner & Townsend • Kirstin Polson - Contract Manager, Nuclear Restoration Services • Louisa Baille - Masters in Applied Project Management, University of Sunderland • Irene Maposa - Senior IT Project Manager, APM WiPM Chair
  • 31. © 2023 Association for Project Management APM London – April Date TBC Team Lead Succeed – Helping You And Your Team Achieve High-Performance Teamwork Date: TBC April 2024 Time: 18:00 - 21:00 Venue: TBC In this interactive session, Nick will share learning from Team Lead Succeed that can be applied immediately and make a positive difference to your teamwork. Nick will share the importance of knowing both WHO is in your team and also HOW effective your teamwork is. Speaker Nick Fewings, MD of Ngagementworks, published Team Lead Succeed, based on his 30+years of both leading operational and project teams, and subsequently facilitating team development around the world.
  • 32. © 2023 Association for Project Management APM London – 22nd May How Project Managers Can Deal with Stress and Avoid Burnout Date: 22nd May 2024 Time: 18:00 - 21:00 Venue: TBC Whereas short bursts of stress are perfectly normal and can have a positive effect on performance, prolonged stress is harmful and can cause burnout. Too many project managers are chronically stressed and don’t take the warning signs seriously. In this talk Susanne will share her own story of how she almost faced burnout running a multi-year programme. She will explain the underlying patterns that lead to burnout and provide tips and insights from 15 years of coaching that can help you thrive and stay clear of negative stress. Speaker Susanne Madsen is an internationally recognised project leadership coach and the award-winning author of The Power of Project Leadership.
  • 33. © 2023 Association for Project Management APM London Information APM London – LinkedIn group https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8715128/ APM London Branch community page https://www.apm.org.uk/community/london-branch/