The document discusses risk communication strategies for environmental issues like climate change. It emphasizes making risks feel local, personal, and immediate to increase risk perception. While facts are important, risk is subjective and colored by emotions. Fear appeals may backfire by causing paralysis instead of action. Effective risk communication involves discussing both risks and solutions, and framing issues in terms of potential losses to motivate precaution. The challenges of communicating complex, global problems like climate change are also addressed.

1. RISK COMMUNICATION
#SciCommLSU
Lecture by Paige Brown Jarreau

2. Brossard, D., & Lewenstein, B. V. (2009). A Critical Appraisal of Models of Public Understanding of Science: Using
Practice to Inform Theory. In L. Kahlor & P. Stout (Eds.), Communicating Science: New Agendas in
Communication(pp. 11-39). New York: Routledge.

3. WHAT WE’VE LEARNED SO FAR
 What scientific research looks like
 How to tell STORIES about science
 What environmental issues (and solutions)
look like on an local level
 How we can communicate complex
environmental issues in ways people can
relate to
 But how do people perceive environmental
RISKS?
 People’s perception of any given
environmental risk and their vulnerability to it
will influence their attitudes and behaviors.
http://www.youtube.com/user/storytellingscience
http://www.eyeonfda.com/eye_on_fda/2012/01/personalized-risk-communication.html

4. RISK PERCEPTION

5.  Communication of risks is not as straight-forward
as scientists may like to think
 Emotions and affect color perceived risk
 People often perceive greater risk from
low probability events with severe
outcomes (like being infected with Ebola)
than they do for higher probability events
with less severe or delayed outcomes
 Negative outcomes “spring more readily
to mind” than neutral outcomes, thus
increasing their perceived likelihood
(Risen and Gilovich, 2007)
RISK PERCEPTION

6.  “A major challenge facing climate
scientists is explaining to non-specialists
the risks and uncertainties surrounding
potential changes over the coming
years, decades and centuries.”
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1080.html#a
uth-2
RISK COMMUNICATION

7.  Diverse policymakers and the public should understand
the climate change risks and uncertainties relevant to
the decisions that each faces.
 However, promoting such understanding is unlikely to
be a sufficient condition for individuals or societies to
respond effectively to the risks posed by climate
change. Political, psychological and physical barriers to
action also need to be addressed.
 However, understanding of risk IS a necessary condition
for action.
IMPORTANCE OF RISK
COMMUNICATION

8.  In other words, me communicating to you your risk of
flooding in your current home does not necessarily
mean you will take action. You may not have the
financial resources, or you may not see any of your
neighbors doing anything, so you are reluctant to act.
BUT if you don’t know your risks, you definitely won’t act.
IMPORTANCE OF RISK
COMMUNICATION

9.  Global
 Distant (for example, melting ice-caps)
 Long time scales
 Averages and probabilities
 Inherent uncertainty, especially in terms of local
impacts
 “Whatever their beliefs, most people find climate
change psychologically distant, as something that will
affect other people in other places and times”
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1080.html#auth-2
WHY CLIMATE CHANGE IS A
‘WICKED PROBLEM’ IN TERMS OF
RISK COMMUNICATION

10. http://www.slideshare.net/matthewnisbet/risk-communication-28002869

11. People often believe their own senses and
experiences more than ‘what scientists say’…
“Science and expertise are under attack. We have
to show the public that the very iPhone or GPS that
they are using has come from sound science and
technology. Science is not about an agenda or
politics, it is about questions, discovery, and
advancement.”
- Marshall Shepherd, 2013 President of American
Meteorological Society, 12 years NASA research
meteorologist
SO PUBLIC TRUST IN SCIENCE IS
ALSO AN ISSUE

12. “Consensus is tricky. Disagreement has always been a part
of science. However, I find now that in the era of ‘arm-chair’
science – many people just don’t understand the
scientific process, the peer-review process, etc. They see
things more like a legal system and reasonable doubt. If
there is reasonable doubt or slight uncertainty, they think
the basic scientific premise is flawed. Science doesn’t
work that way. There is uncertainty in an 80% chance of
rain, but you will probably grab an umbrella. There is
uncertainty in many medical doctors' diagnoses, but we
consume the information.”
- Marshall Shepherd, 2013 President of American
Meteorological Society, 12 years NASA research
meteorologist

13.  “Scientists do not normally repeat facts that are
widely accepted among them, focusing instead
on the uncertainties that pose the most
challenging problems. As a result, lay observers
can get an exaggerated sense of scientific
uncertainty and controversy, unless a special
effort is made to remind them of the broad areas
of scientific agreement.”
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1080.html#auth-2
UNCERTAINTY
https://royalsociety.org/further/uncertainty-in-science/

14. IPCC LANGUAGE
HTTP://WWW.UCL.AC.UK/LAGNADO-LAB/
PUBLICATIONS/HARRIS/HARRISCORNERJEPLMC.PDF

15.  Saying something is "unlikely" or that it "probably
will happen" is an indication of the probability
that this particular thing will occur.
 When it comes to the environment, the chance
of something harmful happening is called risk.
 Risks are typically dependent on many factors,
and so determining risks can be complex.
RISKS

16. What factors might determine your risk for
flooding?
 Distance from the coast? From the river? Flood
plain? Changing weather/hurricane conditions?
Storm surge? Health of the wetlands in your area?
Structure of your house? Levee conditions?
Surrounding city structures? Sea level rise? Erosion?

17.  Different people understand risks in different ways
 How people perceive risks can depend upon how
their values
 For example, some people care primarily about
threats to human life. Others care about the
economy or the environment as well, and need
different risk estimates.
 Proponents of environmental justice want to know
which groups of people will bear the risks and which
get the benefits of proposed policies.
 Some people need to know the extent to which risks
are voluntary, controllable, uncertain, irreversible, etc.
UNDERSTANDING RISK
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1080.html#auth-2

18.  People’s perceptions and interpretations of
risks can also depend on how you frame the
issue and the language that you use…
UNDERSTANDING RISK

19.  Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the
outbreak of an unusual disease, which is
expected to kill 600 people if you do nothing.
You have to choose between two treatments for
600 people affected by a deadly disease.
 Treatment A: 200 people will be saved
 Treatment B: A 33% chance of saving all 600
people, 66% possibility of saving no one.
Which do you choose?
PROBABILITY EXERCISE

20.  Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the
outbreak of an unusual disease, which is
expected to kill 600 people if you do nothing.
You have to choose between two treatments for
600 people affected by a deadly disease.
 Treatment C: 400 people will die
 Treatment D: A 33% chance that no one will die,
66% possibility that 600 people will die.
Which do you choose?
PROBABILITY EXERCISE

21.  Typically, choices involving gains are more risk-adverse,
while choices involving losses are more risk-taking.
 For example, “the negative feelings associated with
losing $100 outweigh the positive feelings associated
with gaining $100. Thus people have a natural tendency
to avoid losses rather than to seek gains.”
 If we want people to take actions that might involve
short-term risks for themselves, should we communicate
the issue in terms of potential gains? Or potential losses?
 What if you want people to avoid risks?
RESULTS
http://guide.cred.columbia.edu/guide/sec2.html

22. For example:
 “People may be more likely to adopt
environmentally responsible behavior and
support costly emissions reduction efforts related
to climate change if they believe their way of life
is threatened and that inaction will result in even
greater loss. They are less likely to adopt these
measures if they focus on the current situation
which they see as acceptable and discount
future improvement of it.” http://guide.cred.columbia.edu/guide/sec2.html
GAIN VS. LOSS FRAMING

23.  Understanding risk requires knowing risk estimates
AND having accurate mental models of the
processes that create and control those risks.
 For example, people may need to know HOW
warmer oceans lead to stronger hurricanes, or how
rising CO2 in the atmosphere causes ocean
acidification, in order to follow public debates and
grasp the rationale for policies.
 Knowledge of risk processes protects people from
being “blind-sided” by misinformation.
 Knowledge of risk processes can help people feel
empowered to DO something about their risks.
UNDERSTANDING RISK
Ian Webster
http://guide.cred.columbia.edu/guide/sec1.html

24.  A mental model represents a person’s thought process for
how something works (i.e., a person’s understanding of the
surrounding world).
 “Mental models, which are based on often-incomplete
facts, past experiences, and even intuitive perceptions,
help shape actions and behavior, influence what people
pay attention to in complicated situations, and define how
people approach and solve problems.”
 “When hearing about risk, people often refer to known
related phenomena and associations from their past to
decide if they find the risk threatening or manageable.”
 “But sometimes a mental model serves as a filter, resulting
in selective knowledge ‘uptake,’ i.e., people seek out or
absorb only the information that matches their mental
model, confirming what they already believe about an
issue. This poses a potential stumbling block for climate
change communicators.”
MENTAL MODELS
http://guide.cred.columbia.edu/guide/sec1.html

25.  What mental models can you think of that
people might have to understand their risk of
flooding? How could these mental models be
wrong?
MENTAL MODELS

26.  So how do we communicate environmental risks
in ways that people can understand?
 Risk communication based on facts alone is
inadequate.
 “Risk is subjective. It’s not just a matter of the
facts, but how those facts feel. Climate change is
a perfect example. The same facts lead to
widely different interpretations and opinions.”
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/the-importance-of-risk-perception-for-effective-climate-change
RISK COMMUNICATION

27.  We worry less about risks that we don’t think can really
happen to us.
 Can you name one way that climate change will seriously
negatively impact you in the next 10 years? Most people,
even ardent believers, can’t.
 We worry less about risks the further off in the future they
are.
 We worry less about abstract risks, risks that are presented
as ideas and “science,” hard-to-get-our-heads-around risks
of global scale and centuries-long time spans, and risks
depicted impersonally with facts and figures, rather than
real human victims.
 We worry less about risks caused by choices that also
produce benefits (like the reliance on oil and gas industry in
Louisiana).
 We worry less about risks over which we have some control.
RISK PERCEPTION
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/the-importance-of-risk-perception-for-effective-climate-change
Ebola!
vs. Climate
change

28. “Climate change is unlikely to become
a high-priority national issue until
Americans consider themselves
personally at risk.”
Climate change is not often perceived as a significant local concern
among the American public.
http://www.glennumc.org/clientimages/41359/etf_risk_perception.pdf

29.  MAKE IT LOCAL, AND PERSONAL.
 MAKE IT CONCRETE, NOT ABSTRACT. Focus on
specifics, not generalities. Not sea level rise in
general, depicted on a map from outer space, but
where various predictions would put the ocean on
local streets.
 MAKE IT NOW, NOT LATER. People are more likely to
support adaptation to what is already occurring, or
may happen soon, than what lies years down the
road.
 POINT OUT THE TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN RISKS AND
BENEFITS. Adaptation now is cheaper and easier to
do than adapting after more severe changes and
damage are underway.
 POINT OUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF DELAY.
LESSONS FOR RISK
COMMUNICATION
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/the-importance-of-risk-perception-for-effective-climate-change

30.  Everyone evaluates risks differently.
 Risk perception is also colored by
emotion and affect, as opposed to
just cognitive understanding.
 Fear appeals are “designed to arose
fear in order to promote
precautionary motivation and self-protective
action.”
http://scx.sagepub.com/content/early/2009/01/07/1075547008
329201.abstract
 However, while fear appeals can
capture attention, they often are
ineffective in motivating genuine
personal engagement. Fear can
result in paralysis instead of action.
RISK PERCEPTION AND
AFFECT

31. Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM)
 “individuals will respond to a threat by either
engaging in danger control, in which action is taken
to reduce the threat, or fear control, in which the
actual threat is not addressed and individuals
instead avoid, or become skeptical of the issue.”
 “The response that an individual takes is guided by
whether or not they feel that there is an effective
action they can engage that might address the
threat - when individuals do not perceive that they
have efficacy to address the threat they are more
likely to engage in fear control.”
 Fear control responses are more likely for risks that
are complex, require multiple stakeholders for
action, and have no clear path forward on action
that can be taken.
RESPONDING TO RISK
http://bigthink.com/age-of-engagement/communicating-about-climate-risks-while-avoiding-dire-messaging

32.  Risks are an essential part of discussions about
climate change impacts
 Dialogue about risks should include risk estimates,
but also information about underlying processes
(like HOW wetland degradation leads to
increased flooding risk)
 However, overplaying risks or using fear appeals
can paralyze people and prevent action
 SO dialogue with your audience should be
relevant and relatable to immediate, local risks
and impacts
 Dialogue should include manageable solutions,
where positive benefits can also be seen
TAKEAWAYS

33.  Break up into 2 groups; One group is the audience, the other is the risk
communicators.
 A long-time coastal Louisiana community is faced with changing
risk conditions. The community did not flood during hurricane
Katrina. However, since that time, loss of wetland marsh and
rising sea levels have made the community more vulnerable to
flooding. Stronger hurricanes are also becoming more frequent.
What should the community do? How should they understand
their risks?
 Risk Communicators: Take 15 minutes, as a group, to discuss your communication
plan. What will you recommend be done? How will you communicate the risks?
With statistics? With stories about impacts on neighboring communities? Visually?
In terms of losses or gains?
 Audience: Take 15 minutes, as a group, to discuss your risk perceptions. What is
your mental model for understanding your risks? Put yourself in the shoes of this
community. What are your concerns? How will you respond to the risk
communicators?
 20 Minute Debate: Take turns
 Risk Communicators: Communicate the risks to this community, and suggest a
plan to them.
 Audience: Respond to the risk communicators. Do you trust them? Do you agree
with their suggestions? Are you persuaded?
 Risk Communicators: Respond to your audience’s concerns. Would you change
your communication strategy?
ROLE-PLAYING DEBATE