The document discusses how the timing of new technologies entering the market and gaining adoption is difficult to predict. It examines the importance of the ecosystem around a new technology in determining its potential success. The emergence of a new technology ecosystem poses challenges to existing, established ecosystems. Understanding what stage of competition a given industry is in - whether a new technology is emerging or established - is crucial for determining appropriate resource allocation and strategic choices. Considering both the technology and surrounding ecosystem provides insights into the pace of change and performance needs in the interim.

1. NOVEMBER 2016
BY
RON ANDER
RAHUL KAPOOR
NOVEMBER 2016

2. Introduction
Too late to come in
the market
Too early to come in the market
Creative destruction is always fascinating but
not all innovation end up in immediate
triumph. The timing of technological changes
still remains a secret. Companies like Uber
and Twitter take off overnight but it took
decades for HDTVs and Cloud Computing to
gain a noticeable market share.

3. The new technology’s ecosystem
In assessing an emerging technology’s potential, the
important concern is whether it can satisfy customer
needs and deliver value in a better way.
How much additional development will be required?
HDTV
High-definition cameras

4. The old technology’s ecosystem
Emergence challenges of established
technologies have overcome and they are
already incorporated within successful
and established ecosystems.

5. The War Between Ecosystems
The race between new and old technology
ecosystems begin when the new technology
isn’t just replacing the old technology on the
existing infrastructure.

6. Implications for Action
Once you understand that in the race to
dominance, ecosystems are just as important
as technologies, you will be better at thinking
through how quickly change is going to
occur—and deciding what level of
performance you need to aim for in the
meantime.
• Which quadrant is our industry in?
• What are the implications for our resource
allocation and other strategic choices?

9. What are the implications for resource allocation
and other strategic choices?
In quadrant 1 innovators should
aggressively invest in the new technology.
In quadrant 3 it is not the time to redouble
innovation efforts in the old technology.
In quadrant 4 new-technology innovators
should be clear-eyed about working to
resolve the ecosystem constraints they
face. But at the same time they must
recognize that the performance threshold
for their core technology is rising.
In quadrant 2 firms can continue to invest
in the old technology and aggressively
invest in improvements to the ecosystem,
knowing that the new and the old
technologies will coexist for an extended
period.

10. CONCLUSION
Now it’s clear that ecosystems are just as
important as technologies, it’s easier to think
how quickly change is going to occur and
deciding what level of performance is needed to
aim for in the meantime.