In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community. In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

1. Lecture L07
BECOMING INVISIBLE

2. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER

3. Inflection points
When technology changes business
Decline starts
Rapid growth starts

5. Hype Curve

6. Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on
the Hype Curve and forecasting

7. The
Hype
Cycle
A
graphic
representation
of
the
maturity,
adoption
and
business
application
of
specific
technologies

9. The Internet Bubble
NASDAQ
January
2000

10. The Internet Bubble
NASDAQ
January
2000

11. The Internet Bubble
NASDAQ
January
2000

12. Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends

13. Theory of Predicting the Future
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future
!
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four
stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with
something else. The stages are:
!
1.
2.
3.
4.
Critical Price
Critical Mass
!
Displace another technology
Become nearly free

14. The
Railway
Bubble
Railway
Stock
in
Britain
The
value
of
railway
stock
grew
4
fold
from
1826
to
1846
Many
companies,
heavy
over-­‐investment
The
bubble
burst
1846

15. The
Internet
Bubble

16. Shifting focus

17. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER

18. Computers
are
still
pretty
complicated
technology
!
!

19. Consumer Devices
The
Computer
and
the
Internet
disappear

20. Netbooks
Price
point
is
$300
25%
of
laptop
sales
25-­‐30
million
units
in
2009

22. Chromebook
Samsung
Chomebook
$249
!
16
GB
Solid
state
drive
100
GB
Cloud
Storage

23. PC sales decline by 10% but Chromebooks climb 112%

24. Tablets
Explosion
in
tablet
sales
Consumerazion
Where
is
the
C-­‐drive?

26. Source: IDC http://www.technobuffalo.com/2013/05/28/tablets-to-outshippcs-idc-report/

29. DESIGN
As technology matures,
design becomes important

31. Technology
Adoption
Life
Cycle
The
talent
of
the
company
that
made
the
product
in
the
early
days
may
become
wrong
when
the
product
matures
!
The
organisational
structure
of
companies
need
to
change
when
the
company
moves
from
technology
to
products/services
!

32. Conway’s Law
Organisations which design
systems ... are constrained to
produce designs which are
copies of the communication
structures of these
organisations

33. To whom does the designer report to?
A programmer?

35. Technology
Business
Design

36. Technology
Life
Cycle
When
will
the
early
majority
pragmatics
start
buying
a
product?
!
The
value
of
the
product
is
sufficiently
great
or
good-­‐enough

37. Technology
Life
Cycle
Early
in
the
cycle,
technology
is
important
When
technology
becomes
good
enough
Value
becomes
more
important
Design
becomes
more
important
Technology
is
no
longer
the
variable
that
controls
purchases
Improvements
loose
their
glamour
!
Customers
are
looking
for
things
like
value
convenience,
productivity,
ease-­‐of-­‐use,
low-­‐cost,
reliability
!
Emotions

41. Life
Cycle
of
Technology
The
move
from
Technology
to
Commodity
The
need-­‐satisfaction
curve
of
technology

42. The
Market
of
Commodites
• What
happens
when
a
market
becomes
mature?
– Karaoke
Capitalism
takes
over
• Red
oceans
– All
the
industries
in
existence
today
—the
known
market
space
– Industry
boundaries
are
defined
and
accepted,
and
the
competitive
rules
of
the
game
are
known

43. Creating
Blue
Oceans
• Strategy
for
creating
new
markets
– Make
the
competition
irrelevant
• Blue
oceans
denote
all
the
industries
not
in
existence
today—the
unknown
market
space,
untainted
by
competition

44. Value Innovation
Instead
of
focusing
on
beating
the
competition,
you
focus
on
making
the
competition
irrelevant
by
creating
a
leap
in
value
for
your
buyers
and
your
company,
thereby
opening
up
new
and
uncontested
market
space