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Review of existing
Low Emissions Development
Strategies in the World
Ben Bartle
Energy and Environment, UNDP
Croatia


                               United Nations Development Program Croatia
Review of international LEDS
 Presentation Agenda


 Discussion
 Item one     Presentation of LEDS Components
              Common LEDS components


Discussion
Item two
              An exploration of LEDS Essentials
              From existing global examples


 Discussion
 Item three   Feedback and findings
              Feedback and findings from LED managers
International LEDS


 •   There is growing number of LEDS, information can be found on the
     following website http:/europeandcis.undp.org/lowcarbon
 •   EU – A Roadmap for Moving to a Low Carbon Economy 2050
 Examples LEDS:
 •   Annex I country: United Kingdom, Slovenia, Japan
 •   Non-Annex I Countries: South Korea, Turkmenistan, Moldova


 Many countries developing LEDS as they see the advantages for economic
 growth, social and environmental benefits NOT because they are obliged
 to!
Basic Concept of LEDS =
LOW EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
But how do we achieve triple bottom lines of social, economic and
environmental benefits.......
                        DEVIL/ANGEL
                           in the
                          DETAIL




                                - Environmental
                                - Social
                                - Economic
LEDS Components
        Examples of LEDS components explored

S   •   Visions and Goals
U   •   Timeframe
S
T   •   Assessment of Current Situation and Projections – Global and National
A
    •   Relation to national Development Strategies, Budgets and Ministerial Coordination
I
N          •   Holistic Consideration of Sustainable Development
A   •   Institutional arrangements – identification of stakeholders
B
L   •   Identification of Priority Programs
E   •   Choosing Priority Programs
D          •   Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
E          •   Sectoral roadmaps
V •     Finance and cost of Mitigation Measures
E
L •     Additional categories
O          •   Barriers to Implementation
P
           •   Vulnerability and Adaption to Climate Change
M
E          •   Green growth, Poverty Reduction, Equal opportunities, Education, Job Growth
N •     Monitoring, Reporting and Verification
T
Timeframe and associated vision/goal of
LEDS
•   EU Road Map
      •   Sectoral targets and Roadmaps Until 2050
      •   80% reduction in GHG from 1990
•   Short term Strategy:
      •   Around 2010-2020 (~10-35% reduction)
•   Medium Term Strategy:
      •   2010-2020 until 2030, 2040, 2050 (~30-95% reduction)
•   Long Term Strategy:
      •   2100 (100% reduction / zero emissions)
•   Vision Goal
- Annex I countries, vision is top down, shaped by international agreements and
then NAMAs and often sectoral roadmaps are decided upon
- Non-Annex I countries, vision is bottom up, developing NAMAs followed by
creating an overall vision
Assessment of Current Situation:
National GHG Inventory and past emission trends

•   Figure 1: GHG Emissions by Sector and by Gas, 2005                                                             National Situation
                              2005                                                 2005                            •   National GHG Inventory
                  Solvents                                                           N2 O    HFCs
                 and Other                                              CH4
                 Products
                                                                                     11.8%   0.158%       SF6              •   By sector
                                Agriculture                            24.3%
      Industrial    Use                           Waste                                                 0.002%
      Processes 0.4%              17.9%
        4.9%
                                                  11.8%                                                                    •   By gas

                                                                                                                   •   Past economic, energy and
                                                                                                       CO2             emissions trends
                                                                                                      63.8%
                 Energy
                 65.0%



                                         1990        1991     1992        1993     1994      1995        1996     1997
    1. Energy                             34.52       30.22    21.38       16.48    13.98     11.14       11.43     9.53
    2. Industrial Processes                1.35        1.10     0.58        0.52     0.38      0.38        0.39     0.43
    3. Solvents                            0.07        0.06     0.05        0.04     0.03      0.03        0.03     0.03
    4. Agriculture                         5.32        5.04     4.49        3.84     3.60      3.39        3.05     2.84
    5. LULUCF                             -1.67       -1.16    -0.92       -0.54    -0.87     -0.76       -0.74    -1.32
    6. Waste                               1.63        1.76     1.87        1.89     1.86      1.83        1.88     1.82
                                         1998        1999     2000        2001     2002      2003        2004     2005
    1. Energy                              7.94        6.18     5.44        6.64     6.74      7.33        7.49     7.72
    2. Industrial Processes                0.35        0.34     0.33        0.33     0.34      0.41        0.48     0.58
    3. Solvents                            0.03        0.03     0.03        0.03     0.04      0.04        0.05     0.05
    4. Agriculture                         2.52        2.44     2.31        2.22     2.31      2.25        2.21     2.13
    5. LULUCF                             -1.16       -1.31    -1.35       -1.39    -1.23     -1.31       -1.32    -1.38
    6. Waste                               1.76        1.83     1.73        1.60     1.53      1.50        1.45     1.40

    Figure 2: Greenhouse Gas Emission and Sink Trends by Sector in Mt CO2 eq., 1990-2005
                                                                                                                                           Source: Moldova
                                                                                                                                           Draft LEDS, 2011
Assessment of Current Situation:
International Climate Agreements and Climate trends

                                                      International situation:
                                                      •   Annex I Countries must
                                                          consider: Kyoto (second
                                                          commitment period), Cancun,
                                                          Bali, Durba
                                                      •   Annex II, Bali Action Plan
                                                      •   Any Further agreements
                                                      •   Latest IPCC findings and data
                                                          presented


                                                             •   GHG concentration
                                                             •   Global temp
                                                             •   Future projections


                                                                          Source: Moldova
                                                                          Draft LEDS, 2011
Projections:
Future Emissions Strategy

  •   Emissions Reduction goal by sector   •   Emissions
                                               projections
                                               •   Reduction goal
                                                   by sector
                                               •   Business as
                                                   usual scenario
                                               •   With measures
                                                   scenarios
Identification of Institutions and
stakeholders:
 Participants in Discussions
 • Line Ministries
 • Local Government
 • General Public
 • Business
 • Research institutions
 • NGOs (national and international)
 • Experts
 • UN and other multinational organisations
 • EU – Commission and member states
 Committee
  Individual representatives nominated by Line Ministries
•Relation to other Development Plans,
Budgets and Inter-ministerial Coordination
Sustainable Development Goal of LEDS:
Ensuring triple bottom lines

 •All LEDS at least         Basic
 mention Sustainable
 Development                • Briefly covers Sustainable Development



                                Moderate
                                • Considers sustainable development
                                  characteristics within NAMAs and sectoral
 •Some  focus on economy          roadmaps
 wide Green Growth
 strategies
                                     Comprehensive – Green Growth
                                     • Considers development strategies and
                                       green growth within separate chapter

 •Some  maintain holistic
 consideration of                        Comprehensive - Holistic
 Sustainable Development
 throughout                              • Integrates a holistic concept and
                                           understanding of Sustainable
                                           development throughout strategy
Choosing Priority Programs:
Non-Annex I

  •LEDS to individual measures or Nationally Appropriate Mitigation
  Actions (NAMAs)
        •   Consider existing NAMAS
        •   Prioritise creation of new NAMAS
  •   Mostly developing countries
Choosing Priority Programs:
Annex I

• LEDS to priortise sectoral strategies with individual measures/NAMAS.
• EU Roadmap takes this approach
• Developed countries



                                                                 • Green Growth
                                                                 Strategy
                                                                 • Adaption to
                                                                 Climate change
                                                                 •Other strategies
                                                                 for sustainable
                                                                 development
Finance Options:
Sources of finance for priority programs

 •   Identify need for governments to create favourable investment
     framework conditions to unlock private investment in LED
     sectors
 •   Finance Options for mitigation measures
       •   International finance for annex I countries
       •   Government revenue/public expenditure (Households and Private
           Sector)
       •   Public and private investment,
       •   Carbon markets – Global, EU, and new markets
       •   Percentage of export energy revenue
       •   Public and private financing (tax and credit)mechanisms: Renewable
           Energy Certificate Schemes, Feed-in Tariffs, Tax incentives etc.
       •   Funds such as Climate Funds, Renewable Energy Funds, Environmental
           Funds
Mitigation costs
Cost benefit analysis of different mitigation options:

 •   Marginal Abatement Cost Curves – McKinsey GHG Abatement
     curve
                   Marginal Abatement Cost Curve
        $/tCO e
           2
                                                                  • Marginal cost
                                                                    effectiveness
                                             Abatement options
                                                                    of climate
                                             and their associated
                                             reduction potential
                                                                    change
                                              and costs per ton
                                                                    mitigation



                                                      Mt of CO 2e reductions
                               Optional emission
                             reduction targets and
                             their associated costs
                                     per ton




                                                                               Source: Moldova
                                                                               Draft LEDS, 2011
Additional Element:
    Barriers to Implementation
Some LEDS explore possible barriers and challenges to implementation
•   Financial
•   Technical
•   Political
•   Capacity
•   Coordination


Challenges may constrain the effective, large scale deployment of low
GHG technology and mitigation measures, therefore it is important to
address and explore how to overcome possible challenges
Additional Element:
    Vulnerability to Climate Change
 •   Increase in natural disasters – flooding, droughts and sea level
     rise
 •   Increased likelihood of droughts – threats to crops and hydro
     power production
 •   land use change, changes to agricultural country - threats to
     agricultural production levels and the threat this poses to
     economic development
 •   Threats to development and economic security caused by
     climate change

 Although...
 Considering these vulnerabilities can be used to improve risk
  management systems and preparedness for climate change
Monitoring Reporting and Verification
(MRV)

 •   Identification of national and internationally accepted MRV to
     ensure consistency in the achievement of LED goals.

 •   Some provide basic coverage of MRV – some in separate
     documents

 •   Many countries overlooked the inclusion of MRV frameworks

 •   Good examples of MRV procedures and framework found in
     Slovenia and Moldova LEDS
Feedback
Lessons learnt from LED Managers

Key LEDS success factors:                          •   Key LED Pitfalls
•   Top-level commitment and leadership            •   External imposition
•   Integration into development planning,         •   Poor integration in national
    cross-cutting approach                             development strategies
•   Strong data basis & scientific analysis (GHG   •   Poor inter-ministerial coordination
    inventory, BAU, scenarios, etc.)               •   Lack of capacity for prioritisation
•   Transparency in approach and assumption
•   Stakeholder participation and engagement
•   Acceptance of technical assistance and use
    of peer-to-peer learning
•   LEDS viewed as a living and dynamic
    document
•   Inter-ministerial coordination structure
    including key ministries (finance, economy,
    energy, etc.)
Thank You for your time 
• Contact     Details:
Robert, Robert.pasicko@undp.org

Zoran, Zoran.kordic@undp.org

Ben,    Ben.bartle@undp.org

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Review of existing Low Emissions Development Strategies in the World

  • 1. Review of existing Low Emissions Development Strategies in the World Ben Bartle Energy and Environment, UNDP Croatia United Nations Development Program Croatia
  • 2. Review of international LEDS Presentation Agenda Discussion Item one Presentation of LEDS Components Common LEDS components Discussion Item two An exploration of LEDS Essentials From existing global examples Discussion Item three Feedback and findings Feedback and findings from LED managers
  • 3. International LEDS • There is growing number of LEDS, information can be found on the following website http:/europeandcis.undp.org/lowcarbon • EU – A Roadmap for Moving to a Low Carbon Economy 2050 Examples LEDS: • Annex I country: United Kingdom, Slovenia, Japan • Non-Annex I Countries: South Korea, Turkmenistan, Moldova Many countries developing LEDS as they see the advantages for economic growth, social and environmental benefits NOT because they are obliged to!
  • 4. Basic Concept of LEDS = LOW EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT But how do we achieve triple bottom lines of social, economic and environmental benefits....... DEVIL/ANGEL in the DETAIL - Environmental - Social - Economic
  • 5. LEDS Components Examples of LEDS components explored S • Visions and Goals U • Timeframe S T • Assessment of Current Situation and Projections – Global and National A • Relation to national Development Strategies, Budgets and Ministerial Coordination I N • Holistic Consideration of Sustainable Development A • Institutional arrangements – identification of stakeholders B L • Identification of Priority Programs E • Choosing Priority Programs D • Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) E • Sectoral roadmaps V • Finance and cost of Mitigation Measures E L • Additional categories O • Barriers to Implementation P • Vulnerability and Adaption to Climate Change M E • Green growth, Poverty Reduction, Equal opportunities, Education, Job Growth N • Monitoring, Reporting and Verification T
  • 6. Timeframe and associated vision/goal of LEDS • EU Road Map • Sectoral targets and Roadmaps Until 2050 • 80% reduction in GHG from 1990 • Short term Strategy: • Around 2010-2020 (~10-35% reduction) • Medium Term Strategy: • 2010-2020 until 2030, 2040, 2050 (~30-95% reduction) • Long Term Strategy: • 2100 (100% reduction / zero emissions) • Vision Goal - Annex I countries, vision is top down, shaped by international agreements and then NAMAs and often sectoral roadmaps are decided upon - Non-Annex I countries, vision is bottom up, developing NAMAs followed by creating an overall vision
  • 7. Assessment of Current Situation: National GHG Inventory and past emission trends • Figure 1: GHG Emissions by Sector and by Gas, 2005 National Situation 2005 2005 • National GHG Inventory Solvents N2 O HFCs and Other CH4 Products 11.8% 0.158% SF6 • By sector Agriculture 24.3% Industrial Use Waste 0.002% Processes 0.4% 17.9% 4.9% 11.8% • By gas • Past economic, energy and CO2 emissions trends 63.8% Energy 65.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1. Energy 34.52 30.22 21.38 16.48 13.98 11.14 11.43 9.53 2. Industrial Processes 1.35 1.10 0.58 0.52 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.43 3. Solvents 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 4. Agriculture 5.32 5.04 4.49 3.84 3.60 3.39 3.05 2.84 5. LULUCF -1.67 -1.16 -0.92 -0.54 -0.87 -0.76 -0.74 -1.32 6. Waste 1.63 1.76 1.87 1.89 1.86 1.83 1.88 1.82 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1. Energy 7.94 6.18 5.44 6.64 6.74 7.33 7.49 7.72 2. Industrial Processes 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.41 0.48 0.58 3. Solvents 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 4. Agriculture 2.52 2.44 2.31 2.22 2.31 2.25 2.21 2.13 5. LULUCF -1.16 -1.31 -1.35 -1.39 -1.23 -1.31 -1.32 -1.38 6. Waste 1.76 1.83 1.73 1.60 1.53 1.50 1.45 1.40 Figure 2: Greenhouse Gas Emission and Sink Trends by Sector in Mt CO2 eq., 1990-2005 Source: Moldova Draft LEDS, 2011
  • 8. Assessment of Current Situation: International Climate Agreements and Climate trends International situation: • Annex I Countries must consider: Kyoto (second commitment period), Cancun, Bali, Durba • Annex II, Bali Action Plan • Any Further agreements • Latest IPCC findings and data presented • GHG concentration • Global temp • Future projections Source: Moldova Draft LEDS, 2011
  • 9. Projections: Future Emissions Strategy • Emissions Reduction goal by sector • Emissions projections • Reduction goal by sector • Business as usual scenario • With measures scenarios
  • 10. Identification of Institutions and stakeholders: Participants in Discussions • Line Ministries • Local Government • General Public • Business • Research institutions • NGOs (national and international) • Experts • UN and other multinational organisations • EU – Commission and member states Committee Individual representatives nominated by Line Ministries
  • 11. •Relation to other Development Plans, Budgets and Inter-ministerial Coordination
  • 12. Sustainable Development Goal of LEDS: Ensuring triple bottom lines •All LEDS at least Basic mention Sustainable Development • Briefly covers Sustainable Development Moderate • Considers sustainable development characteristics within NAMAs and sectoral •Some focus on economy roadmaps wide Green Growth strategies Comprehensive – Green Growth • Considers development strategies and green growth within separate chapter •Some maintain holistic consideration of Comprehensive - Holistic Sustainable Development throughout • Integrates a holistic concept and understanding of Sustainable development throughout strategy
  • 13. Choosing Priority Programs: Non-Annex I •LEDS to individual measures or Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) • Consider existing NAMAS • Prioritise creation of new NAMAS • Mostly developing countries
  • 14. Choosing Priority Programs: Annex I • LEDS to priortise sectoral strategies with individual measures/NAMAS. • EU Roadmap takes this approach • Developed countries • Green Growth Strategy • Adaption to Climate change •Other strategies for sustainable development
  • 15. Finance Options: Sources of finance for priority programs • Identify need for governments to create favourable investment framework conditions to unlock private investment in LED sectors • Finance Options for mitigation measures • International finance for annex I countries • Government revenue/public expenditure (Households and Private Sector) • Public and private investment, • Carbon markets – Global, EU, and new markets • Percentage of export energy revenue • Public and private financing (tax and credit)mechanisms: Renewable Energy Certificate Schemes, Feed-in Tariffs, Tax incentives etc. • Funds such as Climate Funds, Renewable Energy Funds, Environmental Funds
  • 16. Mitigation costs Cost benefit analysis of different mitigation options: • Marginal Abatement Cost Curves – McKinsey GHG Abatement curve Marginal Abatement Cost Curve $/tCO e 2 • Marginal cost effectiveness Abatement options of climate and their associated reduction potential change and costs per ton mitigation Mt of CO 2e reductions Optional emission reduction targets and their associated costs per ton Source: Moldova Draft LEDS, 2011
  • 17. Additional Element: Barriers to Implementation Some LEDS explore possible barriers and challenges to implementation • Financial • Technical • Political • Capacity • Coordination Challenges may constrain the effective, large scale deployment of low GHG technology and mitigation measures, therefore it is important to address and explore how to overcome possible challenges
  • 18. Additional Element: Vulnerability to Climate Change • Increase in natural disasters – flooding, droughts and sea level rise • Increased likelihood of droughts – threats to crops and hydro power production • land use change, changes to agricultural country - threats to agricultural production levels and the threat this poses to economic development • Threats to development and economic security caused by climate change Although... Considering these vulnerabilities can be used to improve risk management systems and preparedness for climate change
  • 19. Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) • Identification of national and internationally accepted MRV to ensure consistency in the achievement of LED goals. • Some provide basic coverage of MRV – some in separate documents • Many countries overlooked the inclusion of MRV frameworks • Good examples of MRV procedures and framework found in Slovenia and Moldova LEDS
  • 20. Feedback Lessons learnt from LED Managers Key LEDS success factors: • Key LED Pitfalls • Top-level commitment and leadership • External imposition • Integration into development planning, • Poor integration in national cross-cutting approach development strategies • Strong data basis & scientific analysis (GHG • Poor inter-ministerial coordination inventory, BAU, scenarios, etc.) • Lack of capacity for prioritisation • Transparency in approach and assumption • Stakeholder participation and engagement • Acceptance of technical assistance and use of peer-to-peer learning • LEDS viewed as a living and dynamic document • Inter-ministerial coordination structure including key ministries (finance, economy, energy, etc.)
  • 21. Thank You for your time  • Contact Details: Robert, Robert.pasicko@undp.org Zoran, Zoran.kordic@undp.org Ben, Ben.bartle@undp.org