The document summarizes components of Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS) from examples around the world. It discusses common LEDS elements such as visions and goals, assessments of current emissions situations, priority programs, and financing options. The document also provides feedback from LEDS managers, highlighting success factors like top-level commitment and integration into development planning, and pitfalls to avoid like poor integration into national strategies.
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Review of existing Low Emissions Development Strategies in the World
1. Review of existing
Low Emissions Development
Strategies in the World
Ben Bartle
Energy and Environment, UNDP
Croatia
United Nations Development Program Croatia
2. Review of international LEDS
Presentation Agenda
Discussion
Item one Presentation of LEDS Components
Common LEDS components
Discussion
Item two
An exploration of LEDS Essentials
From existing global examples
Discussion
Item three Feedback and findings
Feedback and findings from LED managers
3. International LEDS
• There is growing number of LEDS, information can be found on the
following website http:/europeandcis.undp.org/lowcarbon
• EU – A Roadmap for Moving to a Low Carbon Economy 2050
Examples LEDS:
• Annex I country: United Kingdom, Slovenia, Japan
• Non-Annex I Countries: South Korea, Turkmenistan, Moldova
Many countries developing LEDS as they see the advantages for economic
growth, social and environmental benefits NOT because they are obliged
to!
4. Basic Concept of LEDS =
LOW EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
But how do we achieve triple bottom lines of social, economic and
environmental benefits.......
DEVIL/ANGEL
in the
DETAIL
- Environmental
- Social
- Economic
5. LEDS Components
Examples of LEDS components explored
S • Visions and Goals
U • Timeframe
S
T • Assessment of Current Situation and Projections – Global and National
A
• Relation to national Development Strategies, Budgets and Ministerial Coordination
I
N • Holistic Consideration of Sustainable Development
A • Institutional arrangements – identification of stakeholders
B
L • Identification of Priority Programs
E • Choosing Priority Programs
D • Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
E • Sectoral roadmaps
V • Finance and cost of Mitigation Measures
E
L • Additional categories
O • Barriers to Implementation
P
• Vulnerability and Adaption to Climate Change
M
E • Green growth, Poverty Reduction, Equal opportunities, Education, Job Growth
N • Monitoring, Reporting and Verification
T
6. Timeframe and associated vision/goal of
LEDS
• EU Road Map
• Sectoral targets and Roadmaps Until 2050
• 80% reduction in GHG from 1990
• Short term Strategy:
• Around 2010-2020 (~10-35% reduction)
• Medium Term Strategy:
• 2010-2020 until 2030, 2040, 2050 (~30-95% reduction)
• Long Term Strategy:
• 2100 (100% reduction / zero emissions)
• Vision Goal
- Annex I countries, vision is top down, shaped by international agreements and
then NAMAs and often sectoral roadmaps are decided upon
- Non-Annex I countries, vision is bottom up, developing NAMAs followed by
creating an overall vision
7. Assessment of Current Situation:
National GHG Inventory and past emission trends
• Figure 1: GHG Emissions by Sector and by Gas, 2005 National Situation
2005 2005 • National GHG Inventory
Solvents N2 O HFCs
and Other CH4
Products
11.8% 0.158% SF6 • By sector
Agriculture 24.3%
Industrial Use Waste 0.002%
Processes 0.4% 17.9%
4.9%
11.8% • By gas
• Past economic, energy and
CO2 emissions trends
63.8%
Energy
65.0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
1. Energy 34.52 30.22 21.38 16.48 13.98 11.14 11.43 9.53
2. Industrial Processes 1.35 1.10 0.58 0.52 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.43
3. Solvents 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
4. Agriculture 5.32 5.04 4.49 3.84 3.60 3.39 3.05 2.84
5. LULUCF -1.67 -1.16 -0.92 -0.54 -0.87 -0.76 -0.74 -1.32
6. Waste 1.63 1.76 1.87 1.89 1.86 1.83 1.88 1.82
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1. Energy 7.94 6.18 5.44 6.64 6.74 7.33 7.49 7.72
2. Industrial Processes 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.41 0.48 0.58
3. Solvents 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
4. Agriculture 2.52 2.44 2.31 2.22 2.31 2.25 2.21 2.13
5. LULUCF -1.16 -1.31 -1.35 -1.39 -1.23 -1.31 -1.32 -1.38
6. Waste 1.76 1.83 1.73 1.60 1.53 1.50 1.45 1.40
Figure 2: Greenhouse Gas Emission and Sink Trends by Sector in Mt CO2 eq., 1990-2005
Source: Moldova
Draft LEDS, 2011
8. Assessment of Current Situation:
International Climate Agreements and Climate trends
International situation:
• Annex I Countries must
consider: Kyoto (second
commitment period), Cancun,
Bali, Durba
• Annex II, Bali Action Plan
• Any Further agreements
• Latest IPCC findings and data
presented
• GHG concentration
• Global temp
• Future projections
Source: Moldova
Draft LEDS, 2011
9. Projections:
Future Emissions Strategy
• Emissions Reduction goal by sector • Emissions
projections
• Reduction goal
by sector
• Business as
usual scenario
• With measures
scenarios
10. Identification of Institutions and
stakeholders:
Participants in Discussions
• Line Ministries
• Local Government
• General Public
• Business
• Research institutions
• NGOs (national and international)
• Experts
• UN and other multinational organisations
• EU – Commission and member states
Committee
Individual representatives nominated by Line Ministries
11. •Relation to other Development Plans,
Budgets and Inter-ministerial Coordination
12. Sustainable Development Goal of LEDS:
Ensuring triple bottom lines
•All LEDS at least Basic
mention Sustainable
Development • Briefly covers Sustainable Development
Moderate
• Considers sustainable development
characteristics within NAMAs and sectoral
•Some focus on economy roadmaps
wide Green Growth
strategies
Comprehensive – Green Growth
• Considers development strategies and
green growth within separate chapter
•Some maintain holistic
consideration of Comprehensive - Holistic
Sustainable Development
throughout • Integrates a holistic concept and
understanding of Sustainable
development throughout strategy
13. Choosing Priority Programs:
Non-Annex I
•LEDS to individual measures or Nationally Appropriate Mitigation
Actions (NAMAs)
• Consider existing NAMAS
• Prioritise creation of new NAMAS
• Mostly developing countries
14. Choosing Priority Programs:
Annex I
• LEDS to priortise sectoral strategies with individual measures/NAMAS.
• EU Roadmap takes this approach
• Developed countries
• Green Growth
Strategy
• Adaption to
Climate change
•Other strategies
for sustainable
development
15. Finance Options:
Sources of finance for priority programs
• Identify need for governments to create favourable investment
framework conditions to unlock private investment in LED
sectors
• Finance Options for mitigation measures
• International finance for annex I countries
• Government revenue/public expenditure (Households and Private
Sector)
• Public and private investment,
• Carbon markets – Global, EU, and new markets
• Percentage of export energy revenue
• Public and private financing (tax and credit)mechanisms: Renewable
Energy Certificate Schemes, Feed-in Tariffs, Tax incentives etc.
• Funds such as Climate Funds, Renewable Energy Funds, Environmental
Funds
16. Mitigation costs
Cost benefit analysis of different mitigation options:
• Marginal Abatement Cost Curves – McKinsey GHG Abatement
curve
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve
$/tCO e
2
• Marginal cost
effectiveness
Abatement options
of climate
and their associated
reduction potential
change
and costs per ton
mitigation
Mt of CO 2e reductions
Optional emission
reduction targets and
their associated costs
per ton
Source: Moldova
Draft LEDS, 2011
17. Additional Element:
Barriers to Implementation
Some LEDS explore possible barriers and challenges to implementation
• Financial
• Technical
• Political
• Capacity
• Coordination
Challenges may constrain the effective, large scale deployment of low
GHG technology and mitigation measures, therefore it is important to
address and explore how to overcome possible challenges
18. Additional Element:
Vulnerability to Climate Change
• Increase in natural disasters – flooding, droughts and sea level
rise
• Increased likelihood of droughts – threats to crops and hydro
power production
• land use change, changes to agricultural country - threats to
agricultural production levels and the threat this poses to
economic development
• Threats to development and economic security caused by
climate change
Although...
Considering these vulnerabilities can be used to improve risk
management systems and preparedness for climate change
19. Monitoring Reporting and Verification
(MRV)
• Identification of national and internationally accepted MRV to
ensure consistency in the achievement of LED goals.
• Some provide basic coverage of MRV – some in separate
documents
• Many countries overlooked the inclusion of MRV frameworks
• Good examples of MRV procedures and framework found in
Slovenia and Moldova LEDS
20. Feedback
Lessons learnt from LED Managers
Key LEDS success factors: • Key LED Pitfalls
• Top-level commitment and leadership • External imposition
• Integration into development planning, • Poor integration in national
cross-cutting approach development strategies
• Strong data basis & scientific analysis (GHG • Poor inter-ministerial coordination
inventory, BAU, scenarios, etc.) • Lack of capacity for prioritisation
• Transparency in approach and assumption
• Stakeholder participation and engagement
• Acceptance of technical assistance and use
of peer-to-peer learning
• LEDS viewed as a living and dynamic
document
• Inter-ministerial coordination structure
including key ministries (finance, economy,
energy, etc.)
21. Thank You for your time
• Contact Details:
Robert, Robert.pasicko@undp.org
Zoran, Zoran.kordic@undp.org
Ben, Ben.bartle@undp.org