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Retail Cities Asia Pacific
The Fast Fashion Retail Race
April 2015
Bangkok
Strong domestic consumer demand and astute positioning by the Thai tourism board
have made Bangkok a hip shopping destination. Brandhungry shoppers from home and
abroad jump on the Skytrain and head for the city centre’s sleek malls like Siam
Paragon, CentralWorld Central Embassy and Siam Square One, or take a more
leisurely stroll around Asiatique the Riverfront mall and night bazaar beside the Chao
Phraya River. Bangkok’s retail landscape continues to diversify, with the opening of
HaHa Market and renovations at Central Plaza Bangna, and three high-profile malls
scheduled to open in 2015.
New malls enhance
appeal for
international retailers
Several global brands opened
their first stores in Thailand in
2014, and expansion plans are in
place for 2015. Three prime new
retail centres, The EmQuartier,
Central Westgate and Central
Festival East Ville plus
renovations at Central Plaza
Pinklao, are expected to complete
in 2015, adding another 265,000
sqm of retail space.
Vacancy to decline
after short-term rise
In 4Q14, 22,000 sqm of new
space was provided by the
completion of HaHa Market
(18,000 sqm) and renovations
at Central Plaza Bangna (4,000
sqm). The vacancy rate edged
down by 0.1% q-o-q to 4.7% in
4Q14, and is expected to rise
only in the short term, before
declining relatively quickly
given a high level of
precommitments.
Rents continue to rise
amidst a stable
political climate
Landlords responded to a
calmer political environment
by continuing to raise rents
in 4Q14, which drove average
gross ground floor rents higher
by 2.2% q-o-q, to THB 2,344
per sqm per month.
A positive outlook for
capital values
Rents are expected to rise due
to strong leasing demand and
relatively higher rental rates
at the new malls. This positive
outlook should push capital
values higher, while market
yields may also increase as
rental growth is expected to
outpace the growth in
capital values.
Consumer confidence
returns and tourism
rebounds
Thai consumer confidence
returned after the political
upheavals of early 2014, and
the volume of inbound tourists
recovered in 4Q14. Domestic
and international retailers
are being attracted by the
combination of economic
stability and strong domestic
consumer demand.
0.0% 2.6
mil sqm
+31% 2,344
THB
2.4%
Note: Bangkok Retail refers to Bangkok’s Prime retail market
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psm pm)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
NEW RETAILERS
Anyallerie
Bath & Body
Works
Chloe
La Martina
Laduree
Les Nereides
Maje
Retail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Beijing
The Chinese capital has emerged as a sophisticated retail centre since its pre-2008 Olympic
urban makeover. Several large mixed-use developments feature contemporary malls in a city
once famed for its open-air markets. Today, Beijing is a coveted location for international
retailers, with glitzy venues like Oriental Plaza, China World Mall and SKP appealing to both
brands and shoppers. Designer boutiques plus high-end dining and entertainment draw a hip,
fashion-conscious clientele to Taikoo Li Sanlitun and Parkview Green, while Indigo in
Jiuxianqiao, Solana in the Third Embassy Area and Wangfujing Street are popular with
families.
New openings boost
super-regional market
Five new retail centres opened
in Beijing in 4Q14, with four
– Wanda Tongzhou, Paradise
Walk, Livat and Beijing One
– being located in suburban
areas beyond the Fifth Ring
Road. By adding 740,000 sqm
of space, these new openings
represent a turning point in the
suburban super-regional mall
boom in Beijing.
Only new downtown
mall opens with 90%
occupancy
Located several blocks from
the landmark Taikoo Li mall
in Sanlitun, Yongli Mall was
the city centre’s only major
opening in 4Q14. Its ground
floor features dining and cafes
plus a multi-brand luxury store.
Niche designers
expand despite
luxury slowdown
Amid slower growth in the
luxury market, Vera Wang
opened her first Beijing
store at Taikoo Li North. The
store marks the designer’s
second location in China after
Shanghai.
Slower rental growth
may be the new
normal
Strong competition in key
areas resulted in rental growth
remaining subdued in 4Q14.
Urban chain-linked rents
increased by just 1.0% q-o-q,
similar to the previous quarter,
representing a new normal of
slower rental growth. Market
yields were also unchanged,
and cautious investor
sentiment resulted in no major
sales being transacted.
Vacancy slightly
declines
The core vacancy rate
declined slightly to 4.9% in
4Q14, from 5.4% in 3Q14, as
some properties upgraded
their tenant mixes and helped
brands enter new projects or
expand their market presence.
9.1% 2.6
mil sqm
+27% 1,315
RMB
3.2%
Note: Beijing Retail refers to Beijing’s Urban Prime retail market.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psm pm)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
NEW RETAILERS
Cesare Casadei
Marc O’Polo
Nicholas Kirkwood
Old Navy
Retail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Delhi
India’s retail sector continues to evolve as single-brand foreign retailers expand across the
metro cities. As the nation’s capital, Delhi has benefited from the competition between
domestic and global brands to attract affluent, brand-savvy shoppers, especially in prime
areas with high-quality shopping precincts. The retail landscapeof India’s compelling capital
is divided into several submarkets spread across its vast terrain. Popular hangouts for local
shoppers include Ambience, Promenade and Select City Walk in South Delhi and MGF
Metropolitan in Gurgaon, Great India Place in Noida, Europark in Ghaziabad, and Rohini City
Center and Metro Walk Mall in North Delhi.
Net absorption hits
nine-year low
In 4Q14, large exits from a mall
in the suburban submarket
caused overall net absorption
to decline to its lowest level
in nine years. New leasing
activity was sluggish as
retailers largely focused on
firming up plans for 2015, and
the delay in completion of
some malls caused leasing
volumes to remain low.
Rents remain stable
across the capital
Delhi rents remained stable in
all retail submarkets in 4Q14.
For 2015, retailer interest
is likely to be sustained in
the Prime South submarket,
with rents expected to
show marginal growth.
Rent increments in other
submarkets are likely to be
driven by individual projects
that are performing well.
Capital values to
show measured
growth
Capital values were generally
stable in 4Q14, except for
small increases of less than
1% q-o-q in the Prime South
and Prime Others submarkets.
Slightly higher growth is
predicted compared to rents
in 2015, especially for leased
assets, suggesting further yield
compression.
Slow investment
activity to continue
The investment market
remained quiet with activity
mainly driven by small
investors. With limited
availability of leased assets
and most prominent malls
being owned on an en bloc
basis, there is a lack of quality
retail assets available for
small investors.
Retailer expansion
on the horizon
An improving domestic economy
is likely to kick-start consumption
and retailer expansion should
regain momentum as
macroeconomic fundamentals
improve. Hopes that the
government will pass new
legislation for FDI in multi-brand
retail appear to be delayed, but
single-brand retail is likely to spur
demand as new entrants and
active retailers plan expansions.
n/a 1.1
mil sqm
+44% 247
INR
0.4%
Note: Delhi Retail refers to Delhi’s Overall retail market.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Burger King
Fatburger
Natural Ice CreamRetail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psf pm)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
Guangzhou
China’s southern megacity continues to benefit from ongoing urban redevelopment catalysed
by hosting the 2010 Asian Games. Upgraded city infrastructure includes state-of-the-art new
malls in prime areas. The Zhujiang New Town CBD beside the Pearl River entices global and
local retailers because of its luxury hotels, offices, dining and entertainment. The Mall of the
World is Guangzhou’s largest subterranean mall, Rock Square in Haizhu district is a
commercial and residential property with a large shopping mall, and TaiKoo Hui and
Panyu Wanda Plaza are mixed-use developments featuring a shopping mall, office towers, a
hotel and residences.
F&B and fast fashion
retailers continue to
be the most active
Slower retail sales increased
diligence among retailers
about selecting new store
locations. F&B and fast fashion
continued to drive leasing
activity in 4Q14. New mid-tier
international retailers to enter
the market included Victoria’s
Secret, GAP and Etude House.
Wanda adds to city’s
retail stock
A slow quarter for new malls
saw Panyu Wanda Plaza,
the third Wanda Plaza in
Guangzhou, open in early
November with a a net
lettable area of 49,500 sqm. Its
completion increased the city’s
total prime retail stock to NLA
1.2 million sqm.
Mature malls to drive
rental growth
Positive rental growth in mature
malls was achieved through
tenant and trade mix adjustments.
However, the landlords of
underperforming malls softened
their rental stance to combat
vacancy pressures. As a result,
overall rents grew 1.0% q-o-q to
RMB 357.5 per sqm per month in
4Q14. Established malls should
continue to drive overall rental
growth of between 3–4% in 2015.
Capital values
remain stable
Investment market sentiment
was largely unchanged in 4Q14,
with potential buyers concerned
about a possible oversupply in
retail space. Consequently, capital
values held broadly stable.
Weak expansion
demand to continue
Slowing economic growth and
competition from e-commerce
are likely to depress expansion
demand and tighten rental
budgets. New-to-market
international brands, F&B
operators and other services
based retailers are expected to
continue to expand, albeit
cautiously.
15.1% 1.2
mil sqm
+74% 357
RMB
4.1%
Note: Guangzhou Retail refers to Guangzhou’s Overall Prime retail market.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Ay Lazzaro
Bape
Chris Christy
Etude House
Gap
Givenchy
Holland & Barrett
Kenzo
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psm pm)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
Retail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Hong Kong
Self titled as Asia’s World City, Hong Kong is a dynamic international shopping destination.
Global fashion stores, luxury brand flagships and innovative food and beverage outlets
compete for prestige sites that attract high-spending locals and visitors, particularly from
Mainland China. Shopping hotspots include the impressive Pacific Place, Harbour City, Times
Square, The Landmark and ifc, plus the coveted street-front stores along Queen’s Road
Central and Canton Road in Tsimshatsui. Ongoing demand for retail space has resulted
in several brands hot-footing into non-core shopping areas, such as Shatin, Tuen Mun and
Tsuen Wan.
Rental correction in
some fringe streets
in core areas
The changing shopping patterns
of Mainland Chinese visitors
combined with the sustained
disruption caused by the
Occupy Hong Kong protest put
further pressure on rents.
Coupled with demand dwindling
among some big ticket item
retailers, rental corrections were
seen in some fringe streets in
core locations during 4Q14.
Mixed leasing
response to
Occupy protests
The leasing impact of the protests
was mixed during 4Q14. Some
retailers were still keen on leasing
shops in areas less affected by
the protests, such as Italian lingerie
retailer La Perla, which pre-leased
all four levels of a new
development on Russell Street.
Other retailers used the protests as
a bargaining chip to negotiate for
lower rents, especially for shops in
core locations whose leases
expired during the quarter.
Tai Wai Station
project awarded
The Tai Wai station project was
awarded to New World
Development for HKD 2.9
billion. Upon completion, the
project will provide a 650,000
sq ft shopping centre, with
expected completion in 2018.
Investors target
undervalued assets
in non-core areas
Investors continued to target
undervalued properties with
upgrading opportunities in 4Q14.
Due to the already low fields for
properties in core locations,
investors were unwilling to chase
yields down further, leading to a
quarterly fall in capital values for
high street shops.
Stronger sales growth
predicted for 2015
Retail sales should post stronger
growth in 2015, although the anti-
corruption drive and the changing
shopping patterns of Chinese
shoppers are downside risks.
International retailers remain keen to
open stores given Hong Kong’s
mature retail market and growth in
tourism arrivals, which exceeded 60
million for the first time in 2014, but
they will likely adopt a conservative
approach in leasing negotiations.
-3.9% 2.4
mil sqm
+14% 173
HKD
1.0%
Note: Hong Kong Retail refers to Hong Kong’s Overall Prime Shopping Centre and High Street retail markets.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Castaner
Jnby
Kumamon
Le Relais de
L’Entrecote
Moomin Café
Orobianco
Proenza Schouler
Rag & Bone New York
Valextra
Retail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psf pm)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
Jakarta
Indonesia’s fast-developing capital city boasts a rapidly diversifying retail market to match is
impressively evolving skyline. A constant stream of global brands are establishing flagship
stores in Jakarta before expanding nationwide to tap into rising urban incomes and changing
patterns of consumer behaviour across Southeast Asia’s largest country. Downtown Jakarta’s
smartest malls include Plaza Indonesia, Grand Indonesia, Plaza Senayan and Pacific Place,
all offering a colourful collection of fashion retail, luxury brands and dining.
Retail demand
strengthens despite
weaker currency
Retail demand remained robust
in 4Q14 despite the ongoing
weakening of the Rupiah
against the USD, high inflation
and government debt-reduction
policies. Retailers continued
to expand their store networks
and several new entrants
established a retail presence
in the Indonesian capital in the
expectation of sustained growth
in retail sales.
International retailers
open new stores
in central locations
The large CBD malls continued
to attract new outlets by both
local and international retailers.
Notable store openings included
Zara, Uniqlo and Central
Department Store at Grand
Indonesia, and Debenhams at
Lippo Mall St Moritz.
Government
restrictions impact
supply growth
Supply growth continued be
constrained by the Jakarta
provincial government’s
moratorium on new mall
development. Total prime retail
stock comprised 1.41 million
sqm at the end of 2014, with the
St Moritz shopping mall, which
added 50,000 sqm of stock in
3Q14, being the only project to
enter the market
last year.
Macroeconomic and
local market factors
stem rent increases
The removal of fuel subsidies and
resultant high inflation plus Rupiah
depreciation and a focus on maintaining
occupancy levels meant that most
landlords were unwilling to raise rents in
4Q14. Most landlords of prime malls in
Jakarta apply a flat IDR/USD exchange
rate in their leases and only the few that
adopt a floating exchange rate saw
rents increase in 4Q14. The net result
was a 0.4% q-o-q increase, and modest
rental growth is predicted for 2015.
Investor activity
expected to remain
subdued
It is rare for prime retail
assets to be offered for sale
in Jakarta, and 4Q14 was no
exception. Capital values
remained unchanged at IDR
49,344,061 per sqm at year end,
and market yield remained
largely stable at 11.0%. The
investment market is expected
to remain subdued with few
assets entering the market.
-10% 1.4
mil sqm
+17% 5,420,116
IDR
3.2%
Note: Jakarta Retail refers to Jakarta’s Overall Prime retail market.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Bath & Body Works
Caron
Central
Ingersoll
Itacho Sushi
Leica
Riviera
Tory Burch
Retail sales growth
(December, y-on-y)
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psm pa)
Rental growth
(y-on-y)
Melbourne
Melbourne is famed for its eclectic dining and year-round calendar of major sporting events
and cultural festivals, and is emerging as a heartland of Australian fashion and design.
Australia’s second most populous city also boasts a vibrant retail scene, ranging from the
artisans of Flinders Lane, jewellery shops on Crossley Street and the fashionable new
Emporium Melbourne mall on Lonsdale Street to the high-end stores along Chapel Street and
Collins Street, Bourke Street Mall and Chadstone the Fashion Capital, the southern
hemisphere’s largest shopping centre. Impressive suburban developments beyond include
Highpoint Shopping Centre and Craigieburn Central.
Consumer spending
growth varies across
retail segments
Retail spending growth continued to
accelerate, rising to 6.2% y-o-y in
November 2014, with Victoria ranked
Australia’s third strongest state for retail
spend growth, after New South Wales
and Tasmania. Food, household goods
and cafes, restaurants and take-away
food retailing drove the rebound, while
growth in clothing, footwear and
personal accessories slowed in the
second half of the year.
International
retailers drive
leasing demand
Leasing markets continue to be
driven by new international retailers
who are expanding beyond the
CBD malls into regional shopping
centres. Redevelopments of major
shopping centres are facilitating
this trend, and demand from
domestic retailers is also likely to
increase in certain categories, led
by the improvement in trading
conditions.
Retail supply
declines as mall
completions slow
Three small projects totalling
19,600 sqm completed in 4Q14.
Supply completions declined
significantly in 2014 after
having risen steadily between
2010 and 2013. However, 2014
marked the low point for the
current construction cycle, and
completions are forecast to
gradually rise in 2015 and 2016.
Minimal annual
change in rents
While minor changes in rents
were recorded in 2014,
performance varied between
retail categories. The CBD,
bulky goods and in sub-regional
sub-sectors recorded a
moderate yearly rental uplift,
which contrasted with a modest
contraction in the regional and
neighbourhood sub-sectors.
Fundamentals
appear healthy
for 2015
The expansion of major
international retailers should
help to support leasing demand
and new developments, and
a modest level of new supply
combined with stronger retail
spending should result in a
modest recovery in rental growth
in 2015. Investors appear to
have priced in strong growth, as
reflected in the yield tightening
evident through 2014.
4.2% 2.6
mil sqm
+10% 1,462
AUD
-0.5%
Note: Melbourne Retail refers to Melbourne’s Overall retail market.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Cos
Dior Perfume & Beauty
Zara HomeCurrent retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psm pa)
Rental growth
(y-on-y)
Retail sales growth
(December, y-on-y)
Mumbai
India’s thriving financial and commercial centre is also the nation’s capital of style and design.
Brand awareness among consumers is high encouraging global retailers, luxury and fashion
brands to seek first-mover advantage in India’s trend-setting shopping market. Mumbai is a
large metropolis and the quality of retail developments varies considerably across both the
Prime North and Prime South submarkets. Mall shopping is a popular concept, though, and
smart shopping centres such as Palladium at High Street Phoenix, Inorbit, Infinity Mall and
Oberoi Mall offer a sophisticated mix of retail, dining and entertainment. New shopping
centres are only planned in Suburban locations such as Parle Square are primed to pamper
shoppers with a wider choice of store options.
Retail expansions tap
into positive market
sentiment
Both domestic and foreign retailers
were active in 4Q14, with participation
from a broader category of retailers
than in previous quarters suggesting
an improvement in overall market
sentiment. Among the brands to
leasespace in late 2014 were local
retailers Reliance Digital and Big
Bazaar, plus international retailers
Hamley’s and BritishBrewing Co.
Stronger leasing activity
offset by exits from
underperforming malls
Leasing activity picked up across all
submarkets. Net take-up in Prime
North was mostly due to pre-
commitments at Parle Square. The
Suburbs also recorded strong
leasing in 4Q14, but retailer exits
from underperforming malls that are
being refurbished resulted in net
absorption declining considerably
during 4Q14.
Slight increase in
stock with one new
mall opening
At the end of 2014, Mumbai’s
total retail stock was 9.6 million
sq ft. Parle Square in Prime
North was the only new mall
to open in the city in 4Q14, and
was the first new shopping
centre to come on stream in
this submarket for six years.
Space constraint in
leading malls to drive
rent rises
On an annualised basis, overall
rents increased slightly although
the Prime North and the Suburbs
witnessed no quarterly change in
rents. Capital values remained
unchanged, and overall market
yields were stable at 11.2%. The
lack of vacant space in successful
malls, which have done well to
attract high visitor traffic, should
see rents rise across all
submarkets in 2015.
Expansion of
suburban retail
expected
Underrepresented suburban
precincts such as Panvel,
Kalyan, Nalasopara are likely to
attract more organised retail in
2015. Domestic retailers facing
stiff competition from foreign
retailers in established markets
are likely to find these locations
an attractive proposition.
n/a 0.9
mil sqm
+20% 250
INR
0.8%
Note: Mumbai Retail refers to Mumbai’s Overall retail market.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Burger King
Johnny Walker
Krispy Kreme
Payless ShoeSource
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psf pm)
Rental growth
(y-on-y)
Retail sales growth
(December, y-on-y)
Shanghai
China’s most fashion-conscious city boasts the nation’s most dynamic retail mix.
Sophisticated shopping resides on both banks of the Huangpu River that bifurcates this east
coast metropolis. In downtown Puxi, international and local brands vie for prime storefronts
on Nanjing Road and Huaihai Road, and in smart malls including Plaza 66, Réel, Hong
Kong Plaza, L’Avenue and the art-themed K11. Luxury brand flagships are a feature of
Xintiandi district and the restored heritage mansions lining the riverfront Bund. Across the
river in Pudong, ifc Tower and Superbrand Mall in the Lujiazui skyscraper district and Kerry
Parkside all offer upscale shopping and a classy range of dining.
Fast fashion and
affordable luxury
brands accelerate
store expansions
Fast fashion retailers stepped up
their store expansions with Zara
unveiling its largest Shanghai
flagship, Uniqlo opening three
outlets and Chamtime Plaza
welcoming a new H&M store.
Affordable luxury brands also
demonstrated an appetite for
expansion, with Michael Kors
committing to two new stores at
River Mall and Grand Gateway.
Vacancy rates
Show slight
increase
The ongoing government
crackdown on official entertaining
influenced an increase to 8.7% in
the vacancy rate in the core area
as several malls closed their
banquet-style upper-floor
restaurants. The non-core market
vacancy rate also increased to
7.3%, as new malls entered the
market with relatively high
vacancy.
Four new malls
Open across
Shanghai
Two new malls opened in both
the core and non-core areas
during 4Q14. The south section
of The Place, formerly known as
The HQ, opened in Hongqiao,
and the nearby Arch Walk held
a soft opening. Beyond the core
area, Chamtime Plaza opened
in Pudong, and Yangpu district
welcomed the Bailian Binjiang
Shopping Centre.
Rents rise slowly
in core and non-
core markets
Rents in the core area increased
by 1.3% q-o-q, to RMB 51.2 per
sqm per day, while non-core rents
rose by 0.7% q-o-q, to RMB 17.4
per sqm per day. In non-core
areas, a disparity exists between
mature regional centres and newer
malls which have little pricing
power. Landlords of new
properties are offering generous
terms to boost occupancy.
Large supply
Pipeline anticipated
in non-coremarket
Retailers should continue to seek
expansion opportunities in 2015,
and a large supply pipeline is
anticipated in the non-core
market. Higher quality suburban
malls are emerging, but these
projects may experience longer
stabilisation periods and mature
shopping centres in key retail
submarkets will likely enjoy strong
bargaining power.
8.3% 4.6
mil sqm
+62% 51
RMB
1.4%
Note: Shanghai Retail refers to Shanghai’s Overall Prime retail market.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Beasts
Bulgogi Brothers
Pret a Manger
Pringle of Scotland
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psm per day)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
Retail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Singapore
Singaporeans love to shop, and strong domestic purchasing power plus a magnetic appeal
for Asian shopping tourists combine to create a comparatively mature retail market. The
premier retail destination is Orchard Road, where cutting-edge malls such as Ion Orchard,
Paragon, Mandarin Gallery, Orchard Central and the recently extended Plaza Singapura
feature top-name global brands. Beyond downtown, the redevelopment of Marina Bay has
delivered The Shoppes at Marina Bay Sands, a smart mall offering deluxe boutiques and
emerging labels, while the Suntec City Mall has been recently revamped.
F&B sales revenue
picks up
Sales revenue from fashion
apparel retailers continued to
decline, however F&B activity
supported demand.
Several new mall
openings deferred
Openings and refurbishments
planned for 4Q14 were largely
deferred, with Capitol Piazza,
the Marina Square extension
and the refurbishment of The
Orchard Hotel Shopping Arcade
have all been postponed to 2015.
However, 1.1 million sq ft of
space was added to the market in
the last quarter of 2014.
Declining tourist
arrivals and rising
operating costs
put pressure on rents
Weakening demand drivers
(including declining visitor
arrivals) alongside rising
operating costs due to a
continued labour shortage are
putting pressure on rents.
Capital values
weaken amid
seasonal decline
Capital values in the Suburban
and Marina submarkets
witnessed marginal declines
of 0.6% q-o-q and 1.0%
q-o-q respectively. The
Primary submarket remained
unchanged. Notably, most
investment sales occurred in
the Marina submarket.
Recovery in tourist
arrivals should
support retail sales
Rents should remain stable for
prime high demand locations in
the face of an expected
recovery in tourist arrivals,
which should support growth in
retail sales, and keep demand
steady for the next 12 months.
2.6% 38
SGD 0.8%
Note: Singapore Retail refers to Singapore’s Prime, Suburban and Marina retail markets.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Elevatione
Giudi
Jack Wills
Jo Burton
Kiro
Kurt Woods
Lululemon Athletica
M. Maison
Vacheron Constantin
Vera Wang
2.2
mil sqm +13%
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psf pm)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
Retail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Sydney
Australia’s largest city is positioning itself as an international shopping destination offering a
varied portfolio of smart malls, department stores, designer brands and revamped heritage
shopping centres. A large working downtown population and a regular flow of tourists
create a strong market for the historic Strand Arcade and Queen Victoria Building in the CBD,
plus the strikingly remodelled Westfield Sydney and Mid City malls. Popular retail outlets also
extend along George Street and Oxford Street, while The Rocks and Darling Harbour
magnetise visitors. Beyond the city centre, malls such as Westfield’s Bondi Junction and
Macquarie Centre in Sydney’s north cater to suburban consumers.
Retail turnover
accelerates
The pace of retail turnover
growth in New South Wales
accelerated in the second half
of 2014, reaching 8.6% year-on
year in November 2014, more
than double the long-term
10-year average of 4.0%.
International retailer
expansions drive
leasing upturn
Leasing demand continues to be
driven by international retailers
expanding their store networks in
the CBD and building a presence
in suburban shopping centres.
Strong demand for prime CBD
space saw the vacancy rate
decrease from 3.6% in 1H14 to
3.1% in 2H14. Across all sub-
sectors, the average vacancy
rate fell to 2.2% in 2H14.
Retail supply
follows an
upward curve
Retail completions increased
to 134,600 sqm in 2014, after
reaching a trough of 106,800 in
2013. New supply additions will
increase in 2015-16, with
around 495,500 sqm of retail
projects scheduled to complete
over the next 24 months.
Investment activity
remains robust
Investment activity remained
strong in 4Q14, totalling AUD
918 million. Across New South
Wales, neighbourhood mall
sales accounted for one-third
of total transaction volumes in
2014, while subregional centres
accounted for 25% of sales. The
largest transaction in 2014 was
the sale of Birkenhead Point for
AUD 310 million in October.
Overall positive
outlook for 2015
Stronger retail spending growth
is likely to boost leasing demand
and in turn rental growth during
2015. Highly liquid investment
market conditions should
support strong activity with retail
yields expected to sharpen
slightly despite variations
between sub-sectors.
Note: Sydney Retail refers to Sydney’s Overall retail market.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Dior Perfume &
Beauty
Forever 21
Kate Spade
Little Caesars Pizza
Sephora
6.9% 3.0
mil sqm
+11% 1,933
AUD
-0.2%
Current retail stock
(NLA)
New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(psm pa)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
Retail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Tokyo
Shopping in the Japanese capital is a dazzlingly stylish experience. Tokyo’s vast size means
its retail landscape is subdivided into distinctive districts, each featuring a compelling blend of
marquee malls, department stores and classy boutiques created by top-name designers.
Ginza is a refined area where chic brand stores reside alongside art galleries and high-
society cafes. Roppongi’s HQ offices and deluxe hotels are more than matched by Roppongi
Hills, one of Tokyo’s sleekest shopping centres. Young consumers and a recent influx of
Chinese tourists make for the trendy malls, en vogue fashions and high-definition video imagery
of Omotesando, Shibuya and Shinjuku, while Tokyo Bay’s large mall appeals to families.
Private consumption
shows signs of
recovery
Consumer spending is
recovering with sales at large-
scale retail stores in Tokyo
increasing by 1.8% y-o-y in
December, while luxury goods
sales in department stores in
Tokyo rose 3.3% y-o-y. Nominal
private consumption is expected
to accelerate in 2015.
Tourism spending
boost for retailers
Tourist consumption continues
to be a bright spot for the retail
market, as visitor arrivals reach
record highs amid expanded
tax exemptions for visitors and
yen depreciation. An 80%
increase in the number of
high-spending Chinese visitors
to Japan in 2014 helped boost
tourist spending by 40% from
2013.
Rents maintain growth
amid limited supply
Rents in 4Q14 averaged JPY
69,195 per tsubo per month,
registering modest growth for
the ninth consecutive quarter.
With robust demand expected to
persist and most upcoming
supply in the prime market
already pre-committed, available
space is likely to remain scarce
thereby supporting the growth
trend of rents.
New Ginza malls
attract premium
brands
The 12-storey Kirarito Ginza
shopping centre opened in
4Q14 with high-profile tenants
including Vacheron Constantin’s
first directly operated store in
Japan plus Tocca Hartmann,
Samsonite Black Label and Din
Tai Fung. The three-storey
Ginza 6-chome Takiyama-cho
mall, featuring Versace and
Brunello Cucinelli, is due for
completion in autumn 2015.
Favourable investment
conditions push capital
value growth
Strong competition for
investment assets is expected
to continue amid historic low
interest rates that provide
favourable conditions for
fundraising. This is likely to
place further downward
pressure on yields and
accelerate the growth of
capital values.
1.8% n/a 69,195
JPY
4.3%
Note: Tokyo Retail refers to Tokyo’s Ginza and Omotesando Prime retail markets.
Source: JLL Research, 4Q14
FAST
FACTS
NEW RETAILERS
Cole Haan
Delvaux
Dior Fragrance &
Beauty
Givenchy
IWC
MCM
Vacheron Constantin
n/a
Current retail stock New supply forecast
(2015-2019)
Rental value
(per tsubo pm)
Rental growth
(y-o-y)
Retail sales growth
(December, y-o-y)
Month 00, 2014 13
Month 00, 2014 14
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE 2015
Thank you

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Retail Cities Asia Pacific: The Fast Fashion Retail Race

  • 1. Retail Cities Asia Pacific The Fast Fashion Retail Race April 2015
  • 2. Bangkok Strong domestic consumer demand and astute positioning by the Thai tourism board have made Bangkok a hip shopping destination. Brandhungry shoppers from home and abroad jump on the Skytrain and head for the city centre’s sleek malls like Siam Paragon, CentralWorld Central Embassy and Siam Square One, or take a more leisurely stroll around Asiatique the Riverfront mall and night bazaar beside the Chao Phraya River. Bangkok’s retail landscape continues to diversify, with the opening of HaHa Market and renovations at Central Plaza Bangna, and three high-profile malls scheduled to open in 2015. New malls enhance appeal for international retailers Several global brands opened their first stores in Thailand in 2014, and expansion plans are in place for 2015. Three prime new retail centres, The EmQuartier, Central Westgate and Central Festival East Ville plus renovations at Central Plaza Pinklao, are expected to complete in 2015, adding another 265,000 sqm of retail space. Vacancy to decline after short-term rise In 4Q14, 22,000 sqm of new space was provided by the completion of HaHa Market (18,000 sqm) and renovations at Central Plaza Bangna (4,000 sqm). The vacancy rate edged down by 0.1% q-o-q to 4.7% in 4Q14, and is expected to rise only in the short term, before declining relatively quickly given a high level of precommitments. Rents continue to rise amidst a stable political climate Landlords responded to a calmer political environment by continuing to raise rents in 4Q14, which drove average gross ground floor rents higher by 2.2% q-o-q, to THB 2,344 per sqm per month. A positive outlook for capital values Rents are expected to rise due to strong leasing demand and relatively higher rental rates at the new malls. This positive outlook should push capital values higher, while market yields may also increase as rental growth is expected to outpace the growth in capital values. Consumer confidence returns and tourism rebounds Thai consumer confidence returned after the political upheavals of early 2014, and the volume of inbound tourists recovered in 4Q14. Domestic and international retailers are being attracted by the combination of economic stability and strong domestic consumer demand. 0.0% 2.6 mil sqm +31% 2,344 THB 2.4% Note: Bangkok Retail refers to Bangkok’s Prime retail market Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psm pm) Rental growth (y-o-y) NEW RETAILERS Anyallerie Bath & Body Works Chloe La Martina Laduree Les Nereides Maje Retail sales growth (December, y-o-y)
  • 3. Beijing The Chinese capital has emerged as a sophisticated retail centre since its pre-2008 Olympic urban makeover. Several large mixed-use developments feature contemporary malls in a city once famed for its open-air markets. Today, Beijing is a coveted location for international retailers, with glitzy venues like Oriental Plaza, China World Mall and SKP appealing to both brands and shoppers. Designer boutiques plus high-end dining and entertainment draw a hip, fashion-conscious clientele to Taikoo Li Sanlitun and Parkview Green, while Indigo in Jiuxianqiao, Solana in the Third Embassy Area and Wangfujing Street are popular with families. New openings boost super-regional market Five new retail centres opened in Beijing in 4Q14, with four – Wanda Tongzhou, Paradise Walk, Livat and Beijing One – being located in suburban areas beyond the Fifth Ring Road. By adding 740,000 sqm of space, these new openings represent a turning point in the suburban super-regional mall boom in Beijing. Only new downtown mall opens with 90% occupancy Located several blocks from the landmark Taikoo Li mall in Sanlitun, Yongli Mall was the city centre’s only major opening in 4Q14. Its ground floor features dining and cafes plus a multi-brand luxury store. Niche designers expand despite luxury slowdown Amid slower growth in the luxury market, Vera Wang opened her first Beijing store at Taikoo Li North. The store marks the designer’s second location in China after Shanghai. Slower rental growth may be the new normal Strong competition in key areas resulted in rental growth remaining subdued in 4Q14. Urban chain-linked rents increased by just 1.0% q-o-q, similar to the previous quarter, representing a new normal of slower rental growth. Market yields were also unchanged, and cautious investor sentiment resulted in no major sales being transacted. Vacancy slightly declines The core vacancy rate declined slightly to 4.9% in 4Q14, from 5.4% in 3Q14, as some properties upgraded their tenant mixes and helped brands enter new projects or expand their market presence. 9.1% 2.6 mil sqm +27% 1,315 RMB 3.2% Note: Beijing Retail refers to Beijing’s Urban Prime retail market. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psm pm) Rental growth (y-o-y) NEW RETAILERS Cesare Casadei Marc O’Polo Nicholas Kirkwood Old Navy Retail sales growth (December, y-o-y)
  • 4. Delhi India’s retail sector continues to evolve as single-brand foreign retailers expand across the metro cities. As the nation’s capital, Delhi has benefited from the competition between domestic and global brands to attract affluent, brand-savvy shoppers, especially in prime areas with high-quality shopping precincts. The retail landscapeof India’s compelling capital is divided into several submarkets spread across its vast terrain. Popular hangouts for local shoppers include Ambience, Promenade and Select City Walk in South Delhi and MGF Metropolitan in Gurgaon, Great India Place in Noida, Europark in Ghaziabad, and Rohini City Center and Metro Walk Mall in North Delhi. Net absorption hits nine-year low In 4Q14, large exits from a mall in the suburban submarket caused overall net absorption to decline to its lowest level in nine years. New leasing activity was sluggish as retailers largely focused on firming up plans for 2015, and the delay in completion of some malls caused leasing volumes to remain low. Rents remain stable across the capital Delhi rents remained stable in all retail submarkets in 4Q14. For 2015, retailer interest is likely to be sustained in the Prime South submarket, with rents expected to show marginal growth. Rent increments in other submarkets are likely to be driven by individual projects that are performing well. Capital values to show measured growth Capital values were generally stable in 4Q14, except for small increases of less than 1% q-o-q in the Prime South and Prime Others submarkets. Slightly higher growth is predicted compared to rents in 2015, especially for leased assets, suggesting further yield compression. Slow investment activity to continue The investment market remained quiet with activity mainly driven by small investors. With limited availability of leased assets and most prominent malls being owned on an en bloc basis, there is a lack of quality retail assets available for small investors. Retailer expansion on the horizon An improving domestic economy is likely to kick-start consumption and retailer expansion should regain momentum as macroeconomic fundamentals improve. Hopes that the government will pass new legislation for FDI in multi-brand retail appear to be delayed, but single-brand retail is likely to spur demand as new entrants and active retailers plan expansions. n/a 1.1 mil sqm +44% 247 INR 0.4% Note: Delhi Retail refers to Delhi’s Overall retail market. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Burger King Fatburger Natural Ice CreamRetail sales growth (December, y-o-y) Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psf pm) Rental growth (y-o-y)
  • 5. Guangzhou China’s southern megacity continues to benefit from ongoing urban redevelopment catalysed by hosting the 2010 Asian Games. Upgraded city infrastructure includes state-of-the-art new malls in prime areas. The Zhujiang New Town CBD beside the Pearl River entices global and local retailers because of its luxury hotels, offices, dining and entertainment. The Mall of the World is Guangzhou’s largest subterranean mall, Rock Square in Haizhu district is a commercial and residential property with a large shopping mall, and TaiKoo Hui and Panyu Wanda Plaza are mixed-use developments featuring a shopping mall, office towers, a hotel and residences. F&B and fast fashion retailers continue to be the most active Slower retail sales increased diligence among retailers about selecting new store locations. F&B and fast fashion continued to drive leasing activity in 4Q14. New mid-tier international retailers to enter the market included Victoria’s Secret, GAP and Etude House. Wanda adds to city’s retail stock A slow quarter for new malls saw Panyu Wanda Plaza, the third Wanda Plaza in Guangzhou, open in early November with a a net lettable area of 49,500 sqm. Its completion increased the city’s total prime retail stock to NLA 1.2 million sqm. Mature malls to drive rental growth Positive rental growth in mature malls was achieved through tenant and trade mix adjustments. However, the landlords of underperforming malls softened their rental stance to combat vacancy pressures. As a result, overall rents grew 1.0% q-o-q to RMB 357.5 per sqm per month in 4Q14. Established malls should continue to drive overall rental growth of between 3–4% in 2015. Capital values remain stable Investment market sentiment was largely unchanged in 4Q14, with potential buyers concerned about a possible oversupply in retail space. Consequently, capital values held broadly stable. Weak expansion demand to continue Slowing economic growth and competition from e-commerce are likely to depress expansion demand and tighten rental budgets. New-to-market international brands, F&B operators and other services based retailers are expected to continue to expand, albeit cautiously. 15.1% 1.2 mil sqm +74% 357 RMB 4.1% Note: Guangzhou Retail refers to Guangzhou’s Overall Prime retail market. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Ay Lazzaro Bape Chris Christy Etude House Gap Givenchy Holland & Barrett Kenzo Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psm pm) Rental growth (y-o-y) Retail sales growth (December, y-o-y)
  • 6. Hong Kong Self titled as Asia’s World City, Hong Kong is a dynamic international shopping destination. Global fashion stores, luxury brand flagships and innovative food and beverage outlets compete for prestige sites that attract high-spending locals and visitors, particularly from Mainland China. Shopping hotspots include the impressive Pacific Place, Harbour City, Times Square, The Landmark and ifc, plus the coveted street-front stores along Queen’s Road Central and Canton Road in Tsimshatsui. Ongoing demand for retail space has resulted in several brands hot-footing into non-core shopping areas, such as Shatin, Tuen Mun and Tsuen Wan. Rental correction in some fringe streets in core areas The changing shopping patterns of Mainland Chinese visitors combined with the sustained disruption caused by the Occupy Hong Kong protest put further pressure on rents. Coupled with demand dwindling among some big ticket item retailers, rental corrections were seen in some fringe streets in core locations during 4Q14. Mixed leasing response to Occupy protests The leasing impact of the protests was mixed during 4Q14. Some retailers were still keen on leasing shops in areas less affected by the protests, such as Italian lingerie retailer La Perla, which pre-leased all four levels of a new development on Russell Street. Other retailers used the protests as a bargaining chip to negotiate for lower rents, especially for shops in core locations whose leases expired during the quarter. Tai Wai Station project awarded The Tai Wai station project was awarded to New World Development for HKD 2.9 billion. Upon completion, the project will provide a 650,000 sq ft shopping centre, with expected completion in 2018. Investors target undervalued assets in non-core areas Investors continued to target undervalued properties with upgrading opportunities in 4Q14. Due to the already low fields for properties in core locations, investors were unwilling to chase yields down further, leading to a quarterly fall in capital values for high street shops. Stronger sales growth predicted for 2015 Retail sales should post stronger growth in 2015, although the anti- corruption drive and the changing shopping patterns of Chinese shoppers are downside risks. International retailers remain keen to open stores given Hong Kong’s mature retail market and growth in tourism arrivals, which exceeded 60 million for the first time in 2014, but they will likely adopt a conservative approach in leasing negotiations. -3.9% 2.4 mil sqm +14% 173 HKD 1.0% Note: Hong Kong Retail refers to Hong Kong’s Overall Prime Shopping Centre and High Street retail markets. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Castaner Jnby Kumamon Le Relais de L’Entrecote Moomin Café Orobianco Proenza Schouler Rag & Bone New York Valextra Retail sales growth (December, y-o-y) Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psf pm) Rental growth (y-o-y)
  • 7. Jakarta Indonesia’s fast-developing capital city boasts a rapidly diversifying retail market to match is impressively evolving skyline. A constant stream of global brands are establishing flagship stores in Jakarta before expanding nationwide to tap into rising urban incomes and changing patterns of consumer behaviour across Southeast Asia’s largest country. Downtown Jakarta’s smartest malls include Plaza Indonesia, Grand Indonesia, Plaza Senayan and Pacific Place, all offering a colourful collection of fashion retail, luxury brands and dining. Retail demand strengthens despite weaker currency Retail demand remained robust in 4Q14 despite the ongoing weakening of the Rupiah against the USD, high inflation and government debt-reduction policies. Retailers continued to expand their store networks and several new entrants established a retail presence in the Indonesian capital in the expectation of sustained growth in retail sales. International retailers open new stores in central locations The large CBD malls continued to attract new outlets by both local and international retailers. Notable store openings included Zara, Uniqlo and Central Department Store at Grand Indonesia, and Debenhams at Lippo Mall St Moritz. Government restrictions impact supply growth Supply growth continued be constrained by the Jakarta provincial government’s moratorium on new mall development. Total prime retail stock comprised 1.41 million sqm at the end of 2014, with the St Moritz shopping mall, which added 50,000 sqm of stock in 3Q14, being the only project to enter the market last year. Macroeconomic and local market factors stem rent increases The removal of fuel subsidies and resultant high inflation plus Rupiah depreciation and a focus on maintaining occupancy levels meant that most landlords were unwilling to raise rents in 4Q14. Most landlords of prime malls in Jakarta apply a flat IDR/USD exchange rate in their leases and only the few that adopt a floating exchange rate saw rents increase in 4Q14. The net result was a 0.4% q-o-q increase, and modest rental growth is predicted for 2015. Investor activity expected to remain subdued It is rare for prime retail assets to be offered for sale in Jakarta, and 4Q14 was no exception. Capital values remained unchanged at IDR 49,344,061 per sqm at year end, and market yield remained largely stable at 11.0%. The investment market is expected to remain subdued with few assets entering the market. -10% 1.4 mil sqm +17% 5,420,116 IDR 3.2% Note: Jakarta Retail refers to Jakarta’s Overall Prime retail market. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Bath & Body Works Caron Central Ingersoll Itacho Sushi Leica Riviera Tory Burch Retail sales growth (December, y-on-y) Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psm pa) Rental growth (y-on-y)
  • 8. Melbourne Melbourne is famed for its eclectic dining and year-round calendar of major sporting events and cultural festivals, and is emerging as a heartland of Australian fashion and design. Australia’s second most populous city also boasts a vibrant retail scene, ranging from the artisans of Flinders Lane, jewellery shops on Crossley Street and the fashionable new Emporium Melbourne mall on Lonsdale Street to the high-end stores along Chapel Street and Collins Street, Bourke Street Mall and Chadstone the Fashion Capital, the southern hemisphere’s largest shopping centre. Impressive suburban developments beyond include Highpoint Shopping Centre and Craigieburn Central. Consumer spending growth varies across retail segments Retail spending growth continued to accelerate, rising to 6.2% y-o-y in November 2014, with Victoria ranked Australia’s third strongest state for retail spend growth, after New South Wales and Tasmania. Food, household goods and cafes, restaurants and take-away food retailing drove the rebound, while growth in clothing, footwear and personal accessories slowed in the second half of the year. International retailers drive leasing demand Leasing markets continue to be driven by new international retailers who are expanding beyond the CBD malls into regional shopping centres. Redevelopments of major shopping centres are facilitating this trend, and demand from domestic retailers is also likely to increase in certain categories, led by the improvement in trading conditions. Retail supply declines as mall completions slow Three small projects totalling 19,600 sqm completed in 4Q14. Supply completions declined significantly in 2014 after having risen steadily between 2010 and 2013. However, 2014 marked the low point for the current construction cycle, and completions are forecast to gradually rise in 2015 and 2016. Minimal annual change in rents While minor changes in rents were recorded in 2014, performance varied between retail categories. The CBD, bulky goods and in sub-regional sub-sectors recorded a moderate yearly rental uplift, which contrasted with a modest contraction in the regional and neighbourhood sub-sectors. Fundamentals appear healthy for 2015 The expansion of major international retailers should help to support leasing demand and new developments, and a modest level of new supply combined with stronger retail spending should result in a modest recovery in rental growth in 2015. Investors appear to have priced in strong growth, as reflected in the yield tightening evident through 2014. 4.2% 2.6 mil sqm +10% 1,462 AUD -0.5% Note: Melbourne Retail refers to Melbourne’s Overall retail market. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Cos Dior Perfume & Beauty Zara HomeCurrent retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psm pa) Rental growth (y-on-y) Retail sales growth (December, y-on-y)
  • 9. Mumbai India’s thriving financial and commercial centre is also the nation’s capital of style and design. Brand awareness among consumers is high encouraging global retailers, luxury and fashion brands to seek first-mover advantage in India’s trend-setting shopping market. Mumbai is a large metropolis and the quality of retail developments varies considerably across both the Prime North and Prime South submarkets. Mall shopping is a popular concept, though, and smart shopping centres such as Palladium at High Street Phoenix, Inorbit, Infinity Mall and Oberoi Mall offer a sophisticated mix of retail, dining and entertainment. New shopping centres are only planned in Suburban locations such as Parle Square are primed to pamper shoppers with a wider choice of store options. Retail expansions tap into positive market sentiment Both domestic and foreign retailers were active in 4Q14, with participation from a broader category of retailers than in previous quarters suggesting an improvement in overall market sentiment. Among the brands to leasespace in late 2014 were local retailers Reliance Digital and Big Bazaar, plus international retailers Hamley’s and BritishBrewing Co. Stronger leasing activity offset by exits from underperforming malls Leasing activity picked up across all submarkets. Net take-up in Prime North was mostly due to pre- commitments at Parle Square. The Suburbs also recorded strong leasing in 4Q14, but retailer exits from underperforming malls that are being refurbished resulted in net absorption declining considerably during 4Q14. Slight increase in stock with one new mall opening At the end of 2014, Mumbai’s total retail stock was 9.6 million sq ft. Parle Square in Prime North was the only new mall to open in the city in 4Q14, and was the first new shopping centre to come on stream in this submarket for six years. Space constraint in leading malls to drive rent rises On an annualised basis, overall rents increased slightly although the Prime North and the Suburbs witnessed no quarterly change in rents. Capital values remained unchanged, and overall market yields were stable at 11.2%. The lack of vacant space in successful malls, which have done well to attract high visitor traffic, should see rents rise across all submarkets in 2015. Expansion of suburban retail expected Underrepresented suburban precincts such as Panvel, Kalyan, Nalasopara are likely to attract more organised retail in 2015. Domestic retailers facing stiff competition from foreign retailers in established markets are likely to find these locations an attractive proposition. n/a 0.9 mil sqm +20% 250 INR 0.8% Note: Mumbai Retail refers to Mumbai’s Overall retail market. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Burger King Johnny Walker Krispy Kreme Payless ShoeSource Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psf pm) Rental growth (y-on-y) Retail sales growth (December, y-on-y)
  • 10. Shanghai China’s most fashion-conscious city boasts the nation’s most dynamic retail mix. Sophisticated shopping resides on both banks of the Huangpu River that bifurcates this east coast metropolis. In downtown Puxi, international and local brands vie for prime storefronts on Nanjing Road and Huaihai Road, and in smart malls including Plaza 66, Réel, Hong Kong Plaza, L’Avenue and the art-themed K11. Luxury brand flagships are a feature of Xintiandi district and the restored heritage mansions lining the riverfront Bund. Across the river in Pudong, ifc Tower and Superbrand Mall in the Lujiazui skyscraper district and Kerry Parkside all offer upscale shopping and a classy range of dining. Fast fashion and affordable luxury brands accelerate store expansions Fast fashion retailers stepped up their store expansions with Zara unveiling its largest Shanghai flagship, Uniqlo opening three outlets and Chamtime Plaza welcoming a new H&M store. Affordable luxury brands also demonstrated an appetite for expansion, with Michael Kors committing to two new stores at River Mall and Grand Gateway. Vacancy rates Show slight increase The ongoing government crackdown on official entertaining influenced an increase to 8.7% in the vacancy rate in the core area as several malls closed their banquet-style upper-floor restaurants. The non-core market vacancy rate also increased to 7.3%, as new malls entered the market with relatively high vacancy. Four new malls Open across Shanghai Two new malls opened in both the core and non-core areas during 4Q14. The south section of The Place, formerly known as The HQ, opened in Hongqiao, and the nearby Arch Walk held a soft opening. Beyond the core area, Chamtime Plaza opened in Pudong, and Yangpu district welcomed the Bailian Binjiang Shopping Centre. Rents rise slowly in core and non- core markets Rents in the core area increased by 1.3% q-o-q, to RMB 51.2 per sqm per day, while non-core rents rose by 0.7% q-o-q, to RMB 17.4 per sqm per day. In non-core areas, a disparity exists between mature regional centres and newer malls which have little pricing power. Landlords of new properties are offering generous terms to boost occupancy. Large supply Pipeline anticipated in non-coremarket Retailers should continue to seek expansion opportunities in 2015, and a large supply pipeline is anticipated in the non-core market. Higher quality suburban malls are emerging, but these projects may experience longer stabilisation periods and mature shopping centres in key retail submarkets will likely enjoy strong bargaining power. 8.3% 4.6 mil sqm +62% 51 RMB 1.4% Note: Shanghai Retail refers to Shanghai’s Overall Prime retail market. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Beasts Bulgogi Brothers Pret a Manger Pringle of Scotland Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psm per day) Rental growth (y-o-y) Retail sales growth (December, y-o-y)
  • 11. Singapore Singaporeans love to shop, and strong domestic purchasing power plus a magnetic appeal for Asian shopping tourists combine to create a comparatively mature retail market. The premier retail destination is Orchard Road, where cutting-edge malls such as Ion Orchard, Paragon, Mandarin Gallery, Orchard Central and the recently extended Plaza Singapura feature top-name global brands. Beyond downtown, the redevelopment of Marina Bay has delivered The Shoppes at Marina Bay Sands, a smart mall offering deluxe boutiques and emerging labels, while the Suntec City Mall has been recently revamped. F&B sales revenue picks up Sales revenue from fashion apparel retailers continued to decline, however F&B activity supported demand. Several new mall openings deferred Openings and refurbishments planned for 4Q14 were largely deferred, with Capitol Piazza, the Marina Square extension and the refurbishment of The Orchard Hotel Shopping Arcade have all been postponed to 2015. However, 1.1 million sq ft of space was added to the market in the last quarter of 2014. Declining tourist arrivals and rising operating costs put pressure on rents Weakening demand drivers (including declining visitor arrivals) alongside rising operating costs due to a continued labour shortage are putting pressure on rents. Capital values weaken amid seasonal decline Capital values in the Suburban and Marina submarkets witnessed marginal declines of 0.6% q-o-q and 1.0% q-o-q respectively. The Primary submarket remained unchanged. Notably, most investment sales occurred in the Marina submarket. Recovery in tourist arrivals should support retail sales Rents should remain stable for prime high demand locations in the face of an expected recovery in tourist arrivals, which should support growth in retail sales, and keep demand steady for the next 12 months. 2.6% 38 SGD 0.8% Note: Singapore Retail refers to Singapore’s Prime, Suburban and Marina retail markets. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Elevatione Giudi Jack Wills Jo Burton Kiro Kurt Woods Lululemon Athletica M. Maison Vacheron Constantin Vera Wang 2.2 mil sqm +13% Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psf pm) Rental growth (y-o-y) Retail sales growth (December, y-o-y)
  • 12. Sydney Australia’s largest city is positioning itself as an international shopping destination offering a varied portfolio of smart malls, department stores, designer brands and revamped heritage shopping centres. A large working downtown population and a regular flow of tourists create a strong market for the historic Strand Arcade and Queen Victoria Building in the CBD, plus the strikingly remodelled Westfield Sydney and Mid City malls. Popular retail outlets also extend along George Street and Oxford Street, while The Rocks and Darling Harbour magnetise visitors. Beyond the city centre, malls such as Westfield’s Bondi Junction and Macquarie Centre in Sydney’s north cater to suburban consumers. Retail turnover accelerates The pace of retail turnover growth in New South Wales accelerated in the second half of 2014, reaching 8.6% year-on year in November 2014, more than double the long-term 10-year average of 4.0%. International retailer expansions drive leasing upturn Leasing demand continues to be driven by international retailers expanding their store networks in the CBD and building a presence in suburban shopping centres. Strong demand for prime CBD space saw the vacancy rate decrease from 3.6% in 1H14 to 3.1% in 2H14. Across all sub- sectors, the average vacancy rate fell to 2.2% in 2H14. Retail supply follows an upward curve Retail completions increased to 134,600 sqm in 2014, after reaching a trough of 106,800 in 2013. New supply additions will increase in 2015-16, with around 495,500 sqm of retail projects scheduled to complete over the next 24 months. Investment activity remains robust Investment activity remained strong in 4Q14, totalling AUD 918 million. Across New South Wales, neighbourhood mall sales accounted for one-third of total transaction volumes in 2014, while subregional centres accounted for 25% of sales. The largest transaction in 2014 was the sale of Birkenhead Point for AUD 310 million in October. Overall positive outlook for 2015 Stronger retail spending growth is likely to boost leasing demand and in turn rental growth during 2015. Highly liquid investment market conditions should support strong activity with retail yields expected to sharpen slightly despite variations between sub-sectors. Note: Sydney Retail refers to Sydney’s Overall retail market. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Dior Perfume & Beauty Forever 21 Kate Spade Little Caesars Pizza Sephora 6.9% 3.0 mil sqm +11% 1,933 AUD -0.2% Current retail stock (NLA) New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (psm pa) Rental growth (y-o-y) Retail sales growth (December, y-o-y)
  • 13. Tokyo Shopping in the Japanese capital is a dazzlingly stylish experience. Tokyo’s vast size means its retail landscape is subdivided into distinctive districts, each featuring a compelling blend of marquee malls, department stores and classy boutiques created by top-name designers. Ginza is a refined area where chic brand stores reside alongside art galleries and high- society cafes. Roppongi’s HQ offices and deluxe hotels are more than matched by Roppongi Hills, one of Tokyo’s sleekest shopping centres. Young consumers and a recent influx of Chinese tourists make for the trendy malls, en vogue fashions and high-definition video imagery of Omotesando, Shibuya and Shinjuku, while Tokyo Bay’s large mall appeals to families. Private consumption shows signs of recovery Consumer spending is recovering with sales at large- scale retail stores in Tokyo increasing by 1.8% y-o-y in December, while luxury goods sales in department stores in Tokyo rose 3.3% y-o-y. Nominal private consumption is expected to accelerate in 2015. Tourism spending boost for retailers Tourist consumption continues to be a bright spot for the retail market, as visitor arrivals reach record highs amid expanded tax exemptions for visitors and yen depreciation. An 80% increase in the number of high-spending Chinese visitors to Japan in 2014 helped boost tourist spending by 40% from 2013. Rents maintain growth amid limited supply Rents in 4Q14 averaged JPY 69,195 per tsubo per month, registering modest growth for the ninth consecutive quarter. With robust demand expected to persist and most upcoming supply in the prime market already pre-committed, available space is likely to remain scarce thereby supporting the growth trend of rents. New Ginza malls attract premium brands The 12-storey Kirarito Ginza shopping centre opened in 4Q14 with high-profile tenants including Vacheron Constantin’s first directly operated store in Japan plus Tocca Hartmann, Samsonite Black Label and Din Tai Fung. The three-storey Ginza 6-chome Takiyama-cho mall, featuring Versace and Brunello Cucinelli, is due for completion in autumn 2015. Favourable investment conditions push capital value growth Strong competition for investment assets is expected to continue amid historic low interest rates that provide favourable conditions for fundraising. This is likely to place further downward pressure on yields and accelerate the growth of capital values. 1.8% n/a 69,195 JPY 4.3% Note: Tokyo Retail refers to Tokyo’s Ginza and Omotesando Prime retail markets. Source: JLL Research, 4Q14 FAST FACTS NEW RETAILERS Cole Haan Delvaux Dior Fragrance & Beauty Givenchy IWC MCM Vacheron Constantin n/a Current retail stock New supply forecast (2015-2019) Rental value (per tsubo pm) Rental growth (y-o-y) Retail sales growth (December, y-o-y)
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