Responsible model development
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1) The document discusses the importance of being transparent with clients about the limitations and potential errors of models. 2) It recommends telling clients the estimated monetary error of recommendations based on modeling results to quantify the business risk exposure. 3) Providing transparency about how wrong models could be is the right thing to do, helps sell additional data and sensitivity analysis services, and builds trust with clients.
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Delta Analytics is a 501(c)3 non-profit in the Bay Area. We believe that data is powerful, and that anybody should be able to harness it for change. Our teaching fellows partner with schools and organizations worldwide to work with students excited about the power of data to do good.
Welcome to the course! These modules will teach you the fundamental building blocks and the theory necessary to be a responsible machine learning practitioner in your own community. Each module focuses on accessible examples designed to teach you about good practices and the powerful (yet surprisingly simple) algorithms we use to model data.
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• 3. We’ll cover...1 Right and wrong ways to pick a price2 The two stages of pricing3 7 rules to give your pricing the edge
• 4. Price has a MASSIVE impact on your business.
• 5. Bad Methods for Pricing
• 6. 1. Product cost + X% You’ll undercharge some customers and overcharge others.
• 7. 2. What does the customer want to pay? People have no idea until you ask them for their credit card.
• 8. Pricing by Value
• 9. Value-Based Pricing Your customers get value worth $Y and it only costs them $X.
• 10. Why does this work? People cannot perceive absolute value, only comparative value.
• 11. Some value is easy to calculate...
• 12. Other value isn’t...
• 13. Pricing - Stage 1 1
• 14. Stage 1 is all about the unknown. Customers don’t understand your product and you don’t understand your customers.
• 15. This is before product/market fit.
• 16. The price you pick won’t be the best.
• 17. Your goal = prove that the product can be sold.
• 18. Pricing - Stage 2 2
• 19. This is your growth stage.
• 20. Time to optimize your price. You’ll need a deep understanding for how your customers use your product.
• 21. Interview your customers
• 22. The ideal price is... Just high enough to need consideration but low enough to still provide plenty of value.
• 23. What if you have different customer segments?
• 24. Separate segments with features. Price sensitive customers get limited plans, value sensitive customers get the VIP plan.
• 25. For this to be successful... You need to talk to your customers and understand the benefits they need the most.
• 26. Capture the full value from each customer type.
• 27. Bidsketch Case Study - Old Pricing
• 28. Bidsketch Case Study - New Pricing
• 29. Bidsketch Case Study - Results1 Doubled average revenue per customer2 Only a slight drop in conversions3 No impact on churn Google “bidsketch pricing post”
• 30. Seven Rules for Pricing 7
• 31. Rule 1: End with a 9 $39 or $37?
• 32. Rule 2: Make Your Price Short $1,000.00 or $1000?
• 33. Rule 3: Anchor Your Price 1 That product is $100, this is only $10 2 Was $150, now only $80 3 Value of $1500, selling for only $150
• 34. Rule 4: Offer Multiple Prices
• 35. Rule 5: Double your Price People tend to UNDERvalue their services.
• 36. Rule 6: Be Careful With Freemium Plans Very difficult to make it work outside of mass markets.
• 37. Rule 7: Grandfather Old Customers In As long as you don’t raise prices for old customers, you won’t get any complaints.
• 38. These are rules, not laws.
• 39. Your 3 Tools for Getting It Done
• 40. 1. The Customer Interview
• 41. 2. A/B Testing
• 42. 3. Customer Analytics
• 43. KISSmetrics helps you find the right price 1 Know who to interview 2 Get A/B results from your whole funnel 3 Track WHO’s doing what
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"No Decision": The blind spot that prevents lawyers from doubling their income
Not “a blind spot.”
“The blind spot...”
Yes, we’re saying there is one thing that, all by itself, robs you of the income your marketing and sales effort should produce.
If you fix only one thing, and change nothing else about how you pursue business, you’ll double your income without increasing your level of effort.
Data mining - Machine Learning
1) The document discusses building machine learning models to predict if bank customers will sign up for term deposits based on their characteristics.
2) Feature analysis found previous sign up, housing loan status, and loan default were strong predictors, while age was a moderate predictor. Education was specially preprocessed.
3) Models tested included random forest, AdaBoost, regression, and neural network. AdaBoost had the best performance with a Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.41, 90% accuracy, and 0.88 ROC score on 5-fold cross validation.
Ultimate Guide to SaaS Pricing
• 3. We’ll cover...1 Right and wrong ways to pick a price2 The two stages of pricing3 7 rules to give your pricing the edge
• 4. Price has a MASSIVE impact on your business.
• 5. Bad Methods for Pricing
• 6. 1. Product cost + X% You’ll undercharge some customers and overcharge others.
• 7. 2. What does the customer want to pay? People have no idea until you ask them for their credit card.
• 8. Pricing by Value
• 9. Value-Based Pricing Your customers get value worth $Y and it only costs them $X.
• 10. Why does this work? People cannot perceive absolute value, only comparative value.
• 11. Some value is easy to calculate...
• 12. Other value isn’t...
• 13. Pricing - Stage 1 1
• 14. Stage 1 is all about the unknown. Customers don’t understand your product and you don’t understand your customers.
• 15. This is before product/market fit.
• 16. The price you pick won’t be the best.
• 17. Your goal = prove that the product can be sold.
• 18. Pricing - Stage 2 2
• 19. This is your growth stage.
• 20. Time to optimize your price. You’ll need a deep understanding for how your customers use your product.
• 21. Interview your customers
• 22. The ideal price is... Just high enough to need consideration but low enough to still provide plenty of value.
• 23. What if you have different customer segments?
• 24. Separate segments with features. Price sensitive customers get limited plans, value sensitive customers get the VIP plan.
• 25. For this to be successful... You need to talk to your customers and understand the benefits they need the most.
• 26. Capture the full value from each customer type.
• 27. Bidsketch Case Study - Old Pricing
• 28. Bidsketch Case Study - New Pricing
• 29. Bidsketch Case Study - Results1 Doubled average revenue per customer2 Only a slight drop in conversions3 No impact on churn Google “bidsketch pricing post”
• 30. Seven Rules for Pricing 7
• 31. Rule 1: End with a 9 $39 or $37?
• 32. Rule 2: Make Your Price Short $1,000.00 or $1000?
• 33. Rule 3: Anchor Your Price 1 That product is $100, this is only $10 2 Was $150, now only $80 3 Value of $1500, selling for only $150
• 34. Rule 4: Offer Multiple Prices
• 35. Rule 5: Double your Price People tend to UNDERvalue their services.
• 36. Rule 6: Be Careful With Freemium Plans Very difficult to make it work outside of mass markets.
• 37. Rule 7: Grandfather Old Customers In As long as you don’t raise prices for old customers, you won’t get any complaints.
• 38. These are rules, not laws.
• 39. Your 3 Tools for Getting It Done
• 40. 1. The Customer Interview
• 41. 2. A/B Testing
• 42. 3. Customer Analytics
• 43. KISSmetrics helps you find the right price 1 Know who to interview 2 Get A/B results from your whole funnel 3 Track WHO’s doing what
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Why should we develop an app
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Disruptive technologies
This document discusses disruptive technologies and how they can save time and money. It describes a $3 million project over 3 years that used 5 iPhones and $100 per month in IT spending to conduct real-time culvert inspections. The document advocates developing tools to streamline workflows and giving users control over the tools. It notes that utilities now have large volumes of data from various sources that is frequently updated in real-time, creating both opportunities and challenges.
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Hybrid planning
Top-down and bottom-up planning can be combined into a hybrid planning approach where abstract goals are broken down into tasks and sub-goals which are achieved through projects. These projects are aware of the abstract goals and can learn from experiences to combine and emerge solutions, achieving goals in a distributed manner by applying case-based reasoning and learning from previous successes similar to a playbook approach.
Test driven model development
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Responsible model development
- 3. When the client asks how wrong the model can be, we should be able to look into his eyes and say, The recommendation based on the modeling results has an error of $0.5Million.
- 4. Tell the client the model can be wrong is And the right thing to do. to do the thing right, we need to tell how wrong it is. And that’s something we believe can sell.
- 5. Right and wrong are just the flip sides of RISKs.
- 6. Asset Management Guys tell us: Business Risk Exposure = Probability of Failure X Consequences of Failure
- 7. How Wrong the Model is? Business Risk Exposure = Probability of Model being Wrong X Consequences of Model being Wrong
- 8. An Example
- 9. Pipe 1 Pipe 1 Pipe 2 If GIS is right Pipe 2 If GIS is wrong Pipe 3 Pipe 3
- 10. Consequences of being wrong: spend $30,000 on a good pipe Probability of being wrong: GIS with no source attribution, 70% chance of a typo. The error of the recommendation is $30,000 * 70% = $21,000
- 11. More generic formula BRE = $30,000 * (0.2+0) = $6,000
- 12. It is the modeler’s responsibility to inform the client the limitation of the model, and the extent. It is a good way to sell Data Management and Sensitivity Analysis services. It is a good way to add true value and gain trust.
- 13. Model responsibly. Reference: Rules for responsible modeling, James, William, CHI http://www.chiwater.com/Publications/Books/r184.asp