Dr Yun, NAR's cheif economist was in town last week and gave an excellent presentation about the Albuquerque real estate market and how it compared to other markets and the nation. See his slideshow here
Market Watch 2014 presentation - Dr. Lawrence Yunrealtorsgnar
NAR SVP and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shared trends and forecasts for both the national and Middle Tennessee market at Market Watch 2014 (July 9, 2014).
Market Watch 2014 presentation - Dr. Lawrence Yunrealtorsgnar
NAR SVP and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shared trends and forecasts for both the national and Middle Tennessee market at Market Watch 2014 (July 9, 2014).
Our second Housing Summit included current housing trends and a look at our economy.
Our Keynote speaker is Lawrence Yun: Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
Topics include: Local Residential & Commercial and 2015 Forecast
Economic and Real Estate Outlook Silicon Valley (October 2015)Susan Rits
Insights from yesterday's presentation at Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® by Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., National Association of Realtors Chief Economist.
2015 Reno/Spark Residential Real Estate ForecastDave Hansen
The author has drilled down into the neighborhoods of Reno and Sparks Nevada to provide insight into the affordability of different zip codes and relate this to the local medium income. The report also deals with the increase in new industries coming to this area
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights-Q1 2018Duff & Phelps
Robust sale activity drove supply of existing homes to a 17-year low and prices to a record high. Sales of new and existing homes reached their highest annual pace since 2007 due to a combination of low mortgage rates, rising wages, steady job growth and high consumer confidence. Read more..
Dr. Lawrence Yun's Economic Update at the Charleston Realtors Commercial Market Forecast event on November 15, 2018: Economic Trends and Outlook in a Rising Interest Rate Environment.
Economic and Housing Market Trends and OutlookNar Res
Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
North Carolina Real Estate Summit
Cary, North Carolina
July 16, 2013
Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS presentation at the Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS 2012 Midyear Residential Real Estate Market Update. Dr. Yun shares national and local (Charleston, SC) data recapping market activity through July 2012 and offers a forecast for the remainder of 2012 and beyond.
Economic and Real Estate Outlook by Lawrence YunLana Tsarikaeva
Every year local realtors gather at the Computer History Museum in Moutain View for the annual Economic and Real Estate Update by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors. Below are my notes from the presentation.
1. Tax reform may harm the real estate, for more information, go to http://on.car.org/2017taxreform
2. Once the election ended the interest rates went up, mortgage rates are still low, expect interest rates increase in December 2017.
3. Housing shortage past 10 years across the United States, last time we had one after the World War Two. We are facing the same issue now. Reasons: too many regulations, shortage of lots, shortage of construction workers, domestic trade skill shortage.
4. Inventory, inventory, raise capital gain exemption at least for California.
5. We used to have Oversupply vs Loose lending rules, Today undersupply and Tight lending. Both are equally bad.
6. Fewer borrowers defaulting on mortgages in California due to 20% downpayment mandate.
7. Homeownership rate still near 50-year low
8. Student debt stops young generation to buy a house.
9. Solid jobs growth
10. Jobs opening skyrocketing
Our second Housing Summit included current housing trends and a look at our economy.
Our Keynote speaker is Lawrence Yun: Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
Topics include: Local Residential & Commercial and 2015 Forecast
Economic and Real Estate Outlook Silicon Valley (October 2015)Susan Rits
Insights from yesterday's presentation at Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® by Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., National Association of Realtors Chief Economist.
2015 Reno/Spark Residential Real Estate ForecastDave Hansen
The author has drilled down into the neighborhoods of Reno and Sparks Nevada to provide insight into the affordability of different zip codes and relate this to the local medium income. The report also deals with the increase in new industries coming to this area
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights-Q1 2018Duff & Phelps
Robust sale activity drove supply of existing homes to a 17-year low and prices to a record high. Sales of new and existing homes reached their highest annual pace since 2007 due to a combination of low mortgage rates, rising wages, steady job growth and high consumer confidence. Read more..
Dr. Lawrence Yun's Economic Update at the Charleston Realtors Commercial Market Forecast event on November 15, 2018: Economic Trends and Outlook in a Rising Interest Rate Environment.
Economic and Housing Market Trends and OutlookNar Res
Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
North Carolina Real Estate Summit
Cary, North Carolina
July 16, 2013
Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS presentation at the Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS 2012 Midyear Residential Real Estate Market Update. Dr. Yun shares national and local (Charleston, SC) data recapping market activity through July 2012 and offers a forecast for the remainder of 2012 and beyond.
Economic and Real Estate Outlook by Lawrence YunLana Tsarikaeva
Every year local realtors gather at the Computer History Museum in Moutain View for the annual Economic and Real Estate Update by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors. Below are my notes from the presentation.
1. Tax reform may harm the real estate, for more information, go to http://on.car.org/2017taxreform
2. Once the election ended the interest rates went up, mortgage rates are still low, expect interest rates increase in December 2017.
3. Housing shortage past 10 years across the United States, last time we had one after the World War Two. We are facing the same issue now. Reasons: too many regulations, shortage of lots, shortage of construction workers, domestic trade skill shortage.
4. Inventory, inventory, raise capital gain exemption at least for California.
5. We used to have Oversupply vs Loose lending rules, Today undersupply and Tight lending. Both are equally bad.
6. Fewer borrowers defaulting on mortgages in California due to 20% downpayment mandate.
7. Homeownership rate still near 50-year low
8. Student debt stops young generation to buy a house.
9. Solid jobs growth
10. Jobs opening skyrocketing
Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013Arthur Prescott
Real estate market trends for the Greater Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market. See the latest real estate statistics and the performance of Prudential Georgia Realty.
Stephen Slifer's presentation from the 2013 Year in Review Market Update event in Charleston, SC on January 14, 2014. Hosted by the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors. A review of the housing market activity in the Charleston, South Carolina metro area and the economic factors affecting market activity in 2013.
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...Joseph Lewis Aguirre
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus on Public Safety as Job #1, Engagement, Wealth of HOA, Branding, Communication, Culture, Civic Responsibility
The SVN® organization shares a portion of their new weekly listings via their SVN Live® Weekly Property Broadcast. Visit https://svn.com/svn-live/ if you would like to attend our weekly call, which we open up to the brokerage community.
Rams Garden Bahcelievler - Istanbul - ListingTurkeyListing Turkey
Implemented by Rams Global in Bahcelievler, the Rams Garden Bahcelievler Apartments includes 796 residences of different types from 2+1 to 5+1.
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Rams Garden Bahcelievler Apartments, which has 8 times more green space than the average of Istanbul with its 33 thousand square meters of green area located within a total of 75 thousand square meters, offers various housing options from 2+1 to 5+1.RAMS Garden has brought a lifeline to the construction industry.
Rams Global, which has signed projects in many places from Dubai to Phuket and delivered more than 20 thousand residences, is now starting new projects in Istanbul.
Rams Garden Bahcelievler is located 9 minutes from Metroport AVM, 5 minutes from Marmara Forum AVM, 12 minutes from Kazlıçeşme beach, 9 minutes from Yıldız Technical University, 7 minutes from Istinye University, 9 minutes from Ramada Hotel and Medicana Hospital.
https://listingturkey.com/property/rams-garden-bahcelievler-apartments/
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Rixos Tersane Istanbul Residences Brochure_May2024_ENG.pdfListing Turkey
Tersane Suites Residences is a luxurious real estate project located in the heart of Istanbul, next to the beautiful Golden Horn. This unique development offers hotel concept residences with Rixos management, making it the perfect choice for both homeowners and investors.
The Tersane Suites Residences offers a wide range of options, from studio apartments to spacious four-bedroom units, all designed to the highest standard. The suites are finished with high-quality materials and feature modern, open-plan living spaces, fully-equipped kitchens, and large balconies with stunning views of the city and sea.
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The Tersane Suites Residences also offers a great opportunity for investors, as it provides a rental guarantee program. This means that investors can enjoy a steady income stream, with the peace of mind that their property is being managed by a reputable and experienced team.
The location of Tersane Suites Residences is also unbeatable, with easy access to the city’s main transportation links and within close proximity to the historic center, making it the perfect base for exploring all that Istanbul has to offer.
The KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing TurkeyListing Turkey
Welcome to KA Housing, a distinguished real estate development nestled in the heart of Eyüpsultan, one of Istanbul’s most promising districts.
Just 10 minutes from the bustling city center, Eyüpsultan offers a serene escape with the convenience of urban living. The direct metro line ensures seamless connectivity to all parts of Istanbul, making it an ideal location for residents who seek both tranquility and vibrancy.
KA Housing boasts unparalleled accessibility, with proximity to Istanbul Airport only 30 minutes away, facilitating easy international travel. Effortless city access is guaranteed by direct metro and transportation links to Istanbul’s cultural and commercial hubs. Quick access to key metro lines connects you to every corner of the city within minutes, making commuting and exploring the city hassle-free.
The development offers luxurious living spaces with a range of unit layouts from 1+1 to 4+1, designed with meticulous attention to detail. Each unit features balconies or terraces, providing stunning vistas of Istanbul and enhancing the living experience. High-quality materials and superior craftsmanship ensure durability and elegance, while sound-proof insulation and high ceilings (2.95 m) offer comfort and sophistication.
Residents of KA Housing enjoy exclusive on-site amenities, including a state-of-the-art gym, outdoor swimming pool, yoga area, and walking paths. Entertainment options abound with a private cinema, children’s playground, and a variety of dining options including a café and restaurant. Security and convenience are paramount with 24/7 security, a dedicated carpark garage, and an IP intercom system.
KA Housing represents a prime investment opportunity with limited availability in a high-demand area, ensuring enduring value and potential for lucrative returns. Homes in this development provide exceptional value without compromising on quality, offering affordable luxury for discerning buyers. The construction is of the highest quality, built to the latest seismic and disaster resistance standards, ensuring safety and resilience.
The community and surroundings of KA Housing are enriched by close proximity to prestigious universities such as Haliç University, Bilgi University, and Istanbul Ticaret University, making it an ideal location for students and academics. The development is adjacent to the Alibeyköy stream leading into the Halic waters, offering serene natural escapes amidst lush greenery. Residents can enjoy the cultural richness of the area, surrounded by historical and cultural landmarks that blend leisure, nature, and culture seamlessly.
https://listingturkey.com/property/the-ka-housing/
Discover Yeni Eyup Evleri 2, nestled among the rising values of Eyupsultan, offering the epitome of modern living in Istanbul.
With its spacious living areas, contemporary architecture, and meticulous details, Yeni Eyup Evleri 2 is poised to be the star of your happiest moments. Situated in the new favorite district of Eyupsultan, claim your spot and unlock the doors to a peaceful life alongside your loved ones. Nestled next to the historical and natural beauties of Eyupsultan, embrace the comfort of modern living and rediscover life.
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https://listingturkey.com/property/yeni-eyup-evleri-2/
Sense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing TurkeyListing Turkey
Sense Levent offers a luxurious living experience in the heart of Istanbul’s vibrant Levent district.
This cutting-edge development seamlessly integrates modern design with natural elements, featuring live evergreen plants maintained by an advanced irrigation system, ensuring lush greenery year-round.
The building’s elegant ceramic balconies are both stylish and durable, enhancing the overall aesthetic and functionality. Residents can enjoy the 700m Sky Lounge, which provides breathtaking views of Istanbul and a perfect space to relax and unwind.
Sense Levent promotes a healthy and active lifestyle with a full gym, swimming pool, sauna, and steam room, all available in the building. The interiors are crafted with high-quality materials, ensuring a luxurious and inviting living space.
Designed with young professionals in mind, Sense Levent features 1+1 and 2+1 units with smart floor plans and balconies. The project promises high investment returns, with an expected annual return of 6.5-7%, significantly above Istanbul’s average ROI.
Located in the rapidly growing and highly desirable Levent area, the development benefits from ongoing urban regeneration projects. Its prime location offers proximity to shopping malls, municipal buildings, universities, and public transportation, adding immense value to your investment.
Early investors can take advantage of discounted units during the construction phase, with an expected capital appreciation of +45% USD upon completion. Property Turkey provides comprehensive rental management services, ensuring a seamless and profitable investment experience.
Additionally, robust legal support and significant tax advantages are available through Property Turkey’s licensed Real Estate Investment Fund. Levent is a dynamic urban hub, ideal for young professionals with its numerous corporate headquarters and shopping malls.
Sense Levent is more than just a residence; it’s a place where dreams and opportunities come to life. Contact us today to secure your place in this exclusive development and experience the best of Istanbul living. Sense Levent: Sense the Opportunity. Live the Dream.
https://listingturkey.com/property/sense-levent/
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GVRenting is the leading rental real estate company in Vietnam. We help you to find a serviced apartment for rent in Ho Chi Minh & Saigon. Discover our broad range of rental properties in Vietnam.
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Embark on a journey where lush landscapes and contemporary living converge at Total Environment's Tangled Up In The Green Residential Plots in Devanahalli, Bangalore. Surrounded by verdant expanses, these plots offer an idyllic setting for your dream home. Immerse yourself in the serenity of nature while enjoying the finest amenities and design, where every moment is a harmonious blend of luxury and tranquility.
The SVN® organization shares a portion of their new weekly listings via their SVN Live® Weekly Property Broadcast. Visit https://svn.com/svn-live/ if you would like to attend our weekly call, which we open up to the brokerage community.
Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun
1. Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at Greater Albuquerque Association of REALTORS®
Albuquerque, NM
December 5, 2013
4. Albuquerque Housing Statistics
• Closed Sales through October
Up +19% year-to-date from 1 year ago
• Median Prices
Up +3 to 5% from 1 year ago
• Dollar Volume … up +23% from a year ago
• Inventory … +9% from a year ago
5. Santa Fe Housing Statistics
• Closed Sales through Q3
Up +12% year-to-date from 1 year ago
• Median Prices
Up +16% from 1 year ago
• Dollar Volume … up +18% from a year ago
• Inventory … +9% from a year ago
6. Income Trends
2% to 4% cumulative increase over 2 years
$70,000
$60,000
Household Income
$50,000
$40,000
Family Income
$30,000
$20,000
Disposable Income
per person
$10,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$0
7. 2013 - Jan
2011 - Jan
2009 - Jan
2007 - Jan
2005 - Jan
2003 - Jan
2001 - Jan
1999 - Jan
1997 - Jan
1995 - Jan
1993 - Jan
1991 - Jan
1989 - Jan
1987 - Jan
1985 - Jan
1983 - Jan
1981 - Jan
1979 - Jan
1977 - Jan
1975 - Jan
1973 - Jan
1971 - Jan
Falling Affordability to 5-year Low
But still 5th best in 40 years
250
200
150
100
50
0
9. 2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
Inevitable Rise in Mortgage Rates will
further hurt Affordability
9%
(30-yr rate have been below 6% for 5 years)
8
7
6
5
4
3
10. 0
Jan 14 2000
Jul 14 2000
Jan 12 2001
Jul 13 2001
Jan 11 2002
Jul 12 2002
Jan 10 2003
Jul 11 2003
Jan 9 2004
Jul 9 2004
Jan 7 2005
Jul 8 2005
Jan 6 2006
Jul 7 2006
Jan 5 2007
Jul 6 2007
Jan 4 2008
Jul 4 2008
Jan 2 2009
Jul 3 2009
Jan 1 2010
Jul 2 2010
Dec 31 2010
Jul 1 2011
Dec 30 2011
Jun 29 2012
Dec 28 2012
Jun 28 2013
Refinances will Collapse in 2014
(to at least 15-year low)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
11. 2013 - Jul
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jan
10%
2012 - Oct
2012 - Jul
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jan
2011 - Oct
2011 - Jul
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jan
2010 - Oct
2010 - Jul
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jan
2009 - Oct
2009 - Jul
2009 - Apr
40%
2009 - Jan
2008 - Oct
All-Cash Buyers Stayed High … even when
mortgages were cheap
(Cash share as % of total home sales)
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Normal Range
5%
0%
13. Jan 7 2000
Jul 7 2000
Jan 5 2001
Jul 6 2001
Jan 4 2002
Jul 5 2002
Jan 3 2003
Jul 4 2003
Jan 2 2004
Jul 2 2004
Dec 31 2004
Jul 1 2005
Dec 30 2005
Jun 30 2006
Dec 29 2006
Jun 29 2007
Dec 28 2007
Jun 27 2008
Dec 26 2008
Jun 26 2009
Dec 25 2009
Jun 25 2010
Dec 24 2010
Jun 24 2011
Dec 23 2011
Jun 22 2012
Dec 21 2012
Jun 21 2013
No Increase in Mortgages for Home Purchases
during 2-year Recovery; Will Rise in 2014?
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
14. Ready to Open Credit?
(Average Credit Scores of Approved Loans)
Normal
2009 to 2012
If Normal
Fannie
720
760 to 770
720
Freddie
720
760 to 770
720
FHA
650
680 to 700
660
15% to 20% Higher Sales
15. But Will Washington Allow It?
• Washington Policies so far … Too Restrictive
– Rising g-fees and FHA insurance premiums?
– Uncertainty about QRM down payment
requirement? … Dodd-Frank?
– Too many Lawsuits? … Runaway DOJ?
• Mortgages Have Performed Outstandingly
– Not because of Washington policies
– But because of home price increases
• New Restriction with PATH?
16. What is PATH? … Hensarling’s Ideology
(Protecting American Taxpayers and Homeowners?)
• For-profit Fannie and Freddie were Arrogant
• Today’s Fannie and Freddie have had reforms under
government control
• Remove Government Guarantee on Mortgages
• 30-yr Fixed Rate Mortgages … Hard to get and higher rates
• Large Banks will do Securitization … Small Banks at Risk
• Market becomes excessively pro-cyclical
• Large Banks have FDIC … taxpayer risk … vulnerable to
nationalization and, if so, government credit allocation
• Global capital could decide to go elsewhere rather than the
U.S. …. Other countries grow faster than the U.S.
18. Pending Sales (Contracts, not Closings)
(Seasonally Adjusted)
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
- Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
Source: NAR
19. 2008 - Jan
2008 - Apr
2008 - Jul
2008 - Oct
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
Buyer and Seller Traffic
How Much from Gov’t Shutdown and Dysfunction?
Buyer
Seller
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20. Government Shutdown Did Not Help
IRS Forms Along with FHA and USDA Closures
Purchase Apps Fell with Closures
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Gov't
Conv
Percent Change From Prior Week
Rates Rose with Treasuries
4.7%
4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
Déjà vu in January?…..February?
30-yr FRM
21. 1964 - Jan
1966 - Jan
1968 - Jan
1970 - Jan
1972 - Jan
1974 - Jan
1976 - Jan
1978 - Jan
1980 - Jan
1982 - Jan
1984 - Jan
1986 - Jan
1988 - Jan
1990 - Jan
1992 - Jan
1994 - Jan
1996 - Jan
1998 - Jan
2000 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2010 - Jan
2012 - Jan
New Home Inventory
(Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at near 50-year low)
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
23. Housing Starts … Need to Reach 1.5 million
soon or persistent housing shortage
multifamily
single-family
2500
Thousand units (annualized)
2000
Long-term Average
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
- Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
24. Albuquerque Area Housing Permits
(year-to-date)
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
25. Santa Fe County Housing Permits
(year-to-date)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
26. -5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
Rising Home Prices
Because of Lack of Inventory
(% change from one year ago)
Blue = NAR Median Price
Red = Case-Shiller Index
20
15
10
5
0
28. GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no
Fresh Recession
(Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery)
% growth from one year ago
% growth from one year ago
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
29. 140000
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
U.S. Total Payroll Jobs
(8 million lost … 7 million gained)
In thousands
138000
136000
134000
132000
130000
128000
126000
124000
30. Albuquerque Area Total Jobs
410
400
390
380
370
360
350
2000 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2010 - Jan
2012 - Jan
31. Santa Fe Area Total Jobs
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
2000 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2010 - Jan
2012 - Jan
33. Forecast #1 (in 2012):
Inflation will be Notably Higher by 2015
• No Threatening Inflation Signs for 2013
• But Inflation rises to 4% to 6% in 2015
• Well above Fed’s preferred rate of 2%
• But not in double-digits as in 1970s
34. -1
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth
(the biggest weight to Consumer Price Index)
Owners' Equivalent Rent
Renters' Rent
5
4
3
2
1
0
35. Forecast #2
(Rising Mortgage Rates to 5.3% by end of 2014)
2013
forecast
11%
2014
forecast
0%
Median Price
11%
6%
Dollar Volume
Estimate
+22%
+6%
Existing Home Sales
36. Home Price Forecast
by Wall Street Journal Economists Panel
Year
WSJ Home Price Forecast
2014
5%
Robert Shiller : “Homes are still affordable …
we do not have extravagant mindset today”
37. Forecast #3: More Unequal Wealth
Distribution
• Renters do not accumulate wealth
• Renter population rising
• Homeowners build wealth after buying at low
prices
• Stagnant homeowner population
• Tight Credit hinders ‘good’ renters from
becoming homeowners
• Investors becoming increasing share of
property owners
42. Slightly More Preference For Condo or
Apartment Living Than In 2011
Housing Type Preference (2013):
Housing Type Preference (2011):
Condo
or Apt.
8%
14%
Condo or Apt.
5%
Single
Family
Attached
7%
4%
6%
Single Family
Attached
76%
Single Family
Detached
House
80%
Single Family
Detached House
Right now, if you could choose, which of the following would you prefer to live in:
Slide 42
43. Privacy, Walkability, Schools
Most Important in Deciding Where to Live
Most Important Factors in Deciding Where to Live:
Privacy from neighbors
46%
Sidewalks and places to take walks
37%
High-quality public schools
43%
21%
Being within a short commute to work
25%
Living in a place that’s away from it all
21%
0%
68%
66%
44%
28%
Public transportation within walking distance of your home
Somewhat Important
44%
23%
34%
20%
65%
37%
34%
40%
74%
69%
40%
23%
Living in a community with people at all stages of life adults,
families with children and older people
An established neighborhood with older homes and mature
trees
80%
29%
28%
Easy access to the highway
86%
43%
45%
Being within an easy walk of other places and things in the
community
Very Important
40%
65%
59%
55%
60%
80%
100%
In deciding where to live, indicate how important having each of the following would be to you: very important, somewhat important,
not very important, or not at all important.
Slide 43
44. Walkability and Age-Diversity
Gaining in Importance
Changes in Important Factors in Deciding Where to Live
50%
40%
+1
46% 45%
+1
45% 44%
+6
37%
30%
-8 36%
+4
31%
28%
24%
20%
+8
+2
23%
28%
23%
21%
15%
10%
0%
Privacy from
neighbors
High-quality
public schools
Sidewalks and
places to take
walks
Being within an Being within a
easy walk of
short commute
other places and
to work
things in the
community
Very Important - 2013
A community Easy access to the
with people at
highway
all stages of life
adults, families
with children
and older people
Very Important - 2011
Q.47 In deciding where to live, indicate how important having each of the following would be to you: very important, somewhat important,
not very important, or not at all important.
Slide 44
45. What Buyers Want Most From Their Agent
Determine
what
comparable
homes were
selling for,
8%
Help with the
price
negotiations,
11%
Help with
paperwork,
7%
Help find
and arrange
financing,
3%
Help buyer
negotiate the
terms of sale,
12%
Help find the
right home to
purchase,
53%
46. REALTOR® Median Gross Income
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
How many with more than $100,000? … 200,000
How many with less than $10,000? … 360,000