1. Presented by –
Mushfiqul Hassan Sarkar

2. Introduction about Indian
Economy:
 LPG 1991 & impacts
 Global Recession 2008-09 & its impact..
 The economy has turned itself into a services-driven
economy.
 Services sector now accounts for almost 57 % of India’s
GDP
 Agriculture 14.6%, & Industries 28.5%.
 Although one notices signs of recovery, there are
areas of concern as well.

3. GROWTH RATE OF GDP AT CONSTANT (2004-05) PRICES
PERCENT)
(
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Industry 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 (QE) (RE) (H1)
I. Agriculture 5.2 3.7 4.7 1.6 0.2 3.5
II. Industry 9.3 12.7 9.5 3.9 9.3 10.1
mining & quarrying 1.3 8.7 3.9 1.6 10.6
manufacturing 9.6 14.9 10.3 3.2 10.8 11.4
electricity, gas &
water supply 6.6 10 8.5 3.9 6.5
construction 12.4 10.6 10 5.9 6.5
III. Services 11.1 10.2 10.5 9.8 8.5 9.6
GDP at factor cost 9.5 9.7 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.9

4. Sectoral shares (%) of GDP at constant (2004-05) prices
14.6
2.4
Agriculture
mining & quarrying
manufacturing
16.1 electricity, gas & water supply
construction
Services
56.9 2
8

5. Agriculture: Growth Trend (%): Growth of
agricultural production is erratic; with very low or no
growth.
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
(QE) (RE) (H1)

6. Growth of Industrial Production (all figures in %):
Industrial Production seems recovering, but slowly…
2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-10 April-Nov,10
Index of Industrial Production
(Overall) 8 11.9 8.7 3.2 10.5 9.6#
Capital Goods 14.2 22.4 1 19.1 8 8.2 20.9 1 25.8#
Consumer Durables 13.6 8.3 -1.8 4.7 25.5 20.72#
Consumer Non-durables 10.8 10.4 8.6 6.1 0.4 0.8#
Other Indicators
FDI Equity Inflows 154.7 52.6 8.6 -0.2 -27.0
Non-Food Credit of SCBs 39.6 28.5 23.0 17.8 17.0 20.48#
Exports 23.4 22.5 29.2 13.6 -3.6
Manuf. Exports (with petro) 24.8 23.4 27.0 13.9 -4.2
Imports 33.8 24.4 35.6 20.7 -5.6
Capital Goods 49.3 24.3 899.4 -37.5 -9.6

7. GDP at factor cost: Growth Trend (%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
(QE) (RE) (H1)

8. After Black Monday 2008…
Current Scenario of Asian Economy
 AIG Lehman Bros. bankrupts..
 Real Estate Bubble
 Proactive Federal Reserve System
 US Government Pump Priming
 No Panic in the Banking Sector
 No Crash in the Stock Market
 Unemployment Rate Manageable
 Countervailing Power of Emerging
Markets
 Liquidity of Sovereign Funds
 Massive intervention of European
governments

9. Services: Growth Trend (%): Growth Rate in Services sector is
also still less than the 2007-08 level.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
(QE) (RE) (H1)

10. Rates of Inflation (Base Year: 2004-05=100)
Item Weight 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan, 11
ALL COMMODITIES 100.0 6.5 4.8 8.0 3.6 8.9 9.1 7.5 8.4 8.2
PRIMARY ARTICLES , 20.1 9.6 8.3 11.0 12.7 18.2 18.1 13.0 16.5 17.3
of which
Food 14.3 15.7
of which
Vegetables 1.7 64.9
FUEL & POWR 14.9 6.5 0.0 11.6 -2.1 11.1 11.0 10.3 11.2 11.4
of which
LPG 0.9 15.0
Petrol 1.1 27.4
High speed diesel 4.7 14.7
Manufact. Products 65.0 5.6 4.9 6.2 1.8 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.5 3.8
of which
Consumer Non
Durable 37.4 6.4 4.6 7.5 10.2 10.4 9.6 6.5 8.4 (-)

11. Asia: The Most Dynamic Region
GDP Growth2004 2005
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Rates 2006 2007 2008F 2009F
Indonesia 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.1 5.5
Malaysia 6.8 5.3 5.8 6.3 5.8 4.8
Philippines 6.4 5.0 5.4 7.2 4.4 3.8
Singapore 9.0 7.3 8.2 7.7 3.6 3.5
Thailand 6.3 4.5 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.5
Vietnam 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 6.3 5.5
Source: World Economic Outlook, Oct 2008 (IMF)
NORTHEAST ASIA 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F
China 10.1 10.4 11.6 11.9 9.7 9.3
Hong Kong 8.5 7.1 7.0 6.4 4.1 3.5
Korea, Republic of 4.7 4.2 5.1 5.0 4.1 3.5
Taiwan 6.2 4.2 4.9 5.7 3.8 2.5
OTHERS
India 7.9 9.1 9.8 9.3 7.9 6.9
Source: World Economic Outlook, Oct 2008 (IMF)

12. Opportunities in China
• GDP growth of 8% or over for the last two decades
• Domestic market of some 250-300 million high-income
consumers
• High rate of investment at 50% of GDP
• Foreign direct investments (FDIs) of US$60 billion or more
yearly
• Surging raw material demand
• Greater integration of China and other Asian countries (e.g.
ASEAN + China)
• Demand for middle managers

13. Threats in China
 Overheating economy: possible credit and stock market
bubble
 Inflation rate reached 6.5% in October 2007, the highest
monthly inflation in 11 years
 Efforts to cool down economy may result in hard landing
 Underdeveloped banking sector
 Undervalued currency
 Uncontrolled local officials
 Shortage of local entrepreneurs and managers
 High rates of poverty
 Stricter regulations in IT

14. Japanese Economy
 Political instability caused by successive
resignations of two Prime Ministers
 The Tsunami – Badly broken the economy
 Despite a stronger than expected GDP outturn in
the first quarter of 2010, Japan’s economic outlook is
weak for 2010 and 2011.
 The yen weakened against the U.S. dollar in June but
may strengthen if U.S. economy continues to be
troubled by financial crisis.
 Consumer prices will rise in 2012
 Reserves may be used to help ailing banks in the
Asian region

15. Emerging Engines of Growth GDP % Change
US, EU, JAPAN AND BRICA
2006 2007 2008F 2009F
US 2.8 2.0 1.6 0.1
Euro Area 2.8 2.6 1.3 0.2
Japan 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.5 F-forecasts
BRICA Sources: World Economic Outlook, Oct 2008 (IMF)
Brazil 3.8 5.4 5.2 3.5 aseansec.org
Russia 7.4 8.1 7.0 5.5
India 9.8 9.3 7.9 6.9
China 11.6 11.9 9.7 9.3
ASEAN 6.0 6.5 5.4 5.4
THE NEXT ELEVEN
2006 2007 2008F 2009F
Bangladesh 6.5 6.3 7.0 5.6
Egypt 6.8 7.1 7.2 6.0
Indonesia 5.5 6.3 6.1 5.5
Iran 5.8 6.4 5.5 5.0
Mexico 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.8
Nigeria 6.2 5.9 6.2 8.1
Pakistan 6.9 6.4 5.8 3.5
Philippines 5.4 7.2 4.4 3.8
South Korea 5.1 5.0 4.1 3.5
Turkey 6.9 4.6 3.5 3.0
Vietnam 8.2 8.5 6.3 5.5

16. The Developmental Trends in Asia
2000 onwards…..
 Expanding middle class e.g more productive HR..
 Diversity of consumer tastes and lifestyles
 “Mallification” of Asian cities
 Demographic gift stage in South and Southeast Asia
 Rapid aging in Northeast Asia and Singapore
 Widespread use of English
 The telecom revolution
 Spread of university education

17. Asian Economic Trends 2010-2011
 Domestic markets as engines of growth: double track
strategy
 China as engine of growth of the Asia Pacific region
 The predominance of China in manufacturing
 Growth in intra-regional trade: increased complementarity
 Continuing battle against mass poverty in the big
economies
 Outsourcing of manufacturing and services to Asia
 Outsourcing is intra-company as well as inter-country
 Focus on agricultural productivity in Southeast Asia
 The “entrepreneurial challenge” to centrally planned
economies
 The challenge of innovations and productivity

18. Identified Major Constraints
 Infrastructure
 Procedural Delays
 Corruption
 Tax Rates & Tax Regulations
 Terrorism & Law & order

19. PRIORITY AREAS DEMANDING IMMEDIATE ATTENTION
1. Physical Infrastructure: electricity supply, roads, port infrastructure &
overall connectivity
2. Controlling Corruption and improving overall governance standard.
3. Social sectors: Eradication of Poverty and Health & Education
4. Reduction of gender disparity & improving Female participation in labor
force

20. Overall assessment: Asian Persepective
 The investment climate and the competitive condition in
Asia have shown hardly any improvement in the recent past.
 There are in fact four areas where serious attention need to
be given on a priority basis to improve Asia’s competitive
ranking and also to facilitate speedier economic
development. These are ….

21. ASEAN
GDP Growth Rates and Per Capita Income
GDP per Capita, at Current
GDP Growth Rates
Prices (in US$)
Country 2007 2008F 2009F 2006 2007
Indonesia 6.3 6.2 6.2 1,640.0 1,919.6
Malaysia 6.3 5.6 5.3 5,890.5 6,880.2
Philippines 7.2 4.5 4.7 1,355.7 1,652.8
Singapore 7.7 4.2 4.6 29,499.6 35,206.1
Thailand 4.8 5.0 5.0 3,293.9 3,740.1
Vietnam 8.5 6.5 6.0 724.4 836.7
Source: ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2008 Update (September 2008); aseansec.org

22. Some Corporate Achievements in India
The Tata Nano, The HCL
the world’s laptop, the
cheapest cheapest
production car production
laptop
The Infosys
IT training
campus – the
largest in the
world
Kingfisher
Airways, voted
the best airline of
south-east Asia

23. You To Superpower.. but You may
not Know !!!
 India is one of only three countries that makes supercomputers
(the US and Japan are the other two).
 India is one of six countries that launches satellites.
 The Bombay stock exchange lists more than 6,000 companies.
Only the NYSE has more.
 Eight Indian companies are listed on the NYSE; three on the
NASDAQ.
 By volume of pills produced, the Indian pharmaceutical industry
is the world's second largest after China.
 India has the second largest community of software developers,
after the U.S.
 India has the second largest network of paved highways, after the
U.S.
 India is the world's largest producer of milk, and among the top
five producers of sugar, cotton, tea, coffee, spices, rubber, silk,
and fish.
 100 of the Fortune 500 companies have R&D facilities in India.

24. Some Encouraging Statistics..
 India is the second fastest growing major economy with a 9.2% increase in
GDP per year
 India is already the third largest economy in the world at PPP
 India has seen a huge amount of foreign direct investment in the country,
totaling 67.72 billion dollars and is said to be one of the “preferred options”
for FDI
 India’s poverty level is decreasing by 10% annually
 Indian companies have gone on a buying rampage, with Tata Steel acquiring
Corus, Mittal buying Arcelor and Tata looking set to buy Jaguar and Land
Rover from Ford.
 Every year India’s middle class is increased by 40,000,000 new members
which shows that the wealth is truly entering society
 The Bombay Stock Exchange’s value has been consistently rising, currently
worth 1.61 trillion dollars, the largest in South East Asia.
 Unemployment has dropped by 2% annually, and illiteracy and mortality
rates have also been falling, indicating that India is not only growing but
developing too.

25. Selected Sunrise Industries in Asia
 Agribusiness
 Mining
 Triple Ts: Transport, Telecom, and Tourism
 Infrastructures
 Automobiles
 Consumer durables
 IT-enabled and IT services
 Logistics and retailing
 Health care and medical tourism
 Education
 Construction and real estate
 Four Fs: Food, Fashion, Furniture, Fun

26. Thank You..