The document discusses the current economic, business, and political climate in the United States based on various economic indicators and statistics. It addresses questions about whether the economy has returned to normal after 7 years of recovery, reasons for timid job growth, the impact of lower oil prices on growth and inflation, and the outlook for interest rates and balance sheet deleveraging. Charts of GDP, employment, inflation, oil prices, and interest rates are presented to illustrate trends and analyze these issues.

1. On the Economic, Business &
Political Climate
Roger Tutterow, Ph.D.

2. #WBInsights15
Question #1:
Halfway into the 7th year of the
recovery – has “normal” finally arrived?

3. #WBInsights15
GDP Trend
(trailing 4 quarters)
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6% Jan-96
Aug-96
Mar-97
Oct-97
May-98
Dec-98
Jul-99
Feb-00
Sep-00
Apr-01
Nov-01
Jun-02
Jan-03
Aug-03
Mar-04
Oct-04
May-05
Dec-05
Jul-06
Feb-07
Sep-07
Apr-08
Nov-08
Jun-09
Jan-10
Aug-10
Mar-11
Oct-11
May-12
Dec-12
Jul-13
Feb-14
Sep-14
Apr-15

4. #WBInsights15
GDP vs. Final Sales
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1Q-07
2Q-07
3Q-07
4Q-07
1Q-08
2Q-08
3Q-08
4Q-08
1Q-09
2Q-09
3Q-09
4Q-09
1Q-10
2Q-10
3Q-10
4Q-10
1Q-11
2Q-11
3Q-11
4Q-11
1Q-12
2Q-12
3Q-12
4Q-12
1Q-13
2Q-13
3Q-13
4Q-13
1Q-14
2Q-14
3Q-14
4Q-14
1Q-15
2Q-15
3Q-15
GDP Final Sales

5. #WBInsights15
Contribution to GDP Growth
GDP = Consumption Gross
Investment
Net Exports Government
2014: Q3 4.3 2.34 1.22 0.39 0.33
2014: Q4 2.1 2.86 0.36 -0.89 -0.26
2015: Q1 0.6 1.19 1.39 -1.92 -0.01
2015: Q2 3.9 2.42 0.85 0.18 0.46
2015: Q3 1.5 2.19 -0.90 -0.03 0.30
Gross Investment = Nonresidential Residential Inventory
2014: Q3 1.22 1.12 0.11 -0.01
2014: Q4 0.36 0.09 0.31 -0.03
2015: Q1 1.39 0.20 0.32 0.87
2015: Q2 0.85 0.53 0.30 0.02
2015: Q3 -0.90 0.27 0.20 -1.44

6. #WBInsights15
ISM’s “PMI”
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-00
Jun-00
Nov-00
Apr-01
Sep-01
Feb-02
Jul-02
Dec-02
May-03
Oct-03
Mar-04
Aug-04
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15

7. #WBInsights15
Foreign Exchange:
Trading Partners
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-02
Jun-02
Nov-02
Apr-03
Sep-03
Feb-04
Jul-04
Dec-04
May-05
Oct-05
Mar-06
Aug-06
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-14
Dec-14
May-15

8. #WBInsights15
Consumer Sentiment
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15

9. #WBInsights15
Retail Sales:
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12% Jan-96
Aug-96
Mar-97
Oct-97
May-98
Dec-98
Jul-99
Feb-00
Sep-00
Apr-01
Nov-01
Jun-02
Jan-03
Aug-03
Mar-04
Oct-04
May-05
Dec-05
Jul-06
Feb-07
Sep-07
Apr-08
Nov-08
Jun-09
Jan-10
Aug-10
Mar-11
Oct-11
May-12
Dec-12
Jul-13
Feb-14
Sep-14
RS Total RS ex-auto

10. #WBInsights15
Car & Truck Sales
(SAAR, in millions)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Auto Light Truck

11. #WBInsights15
Leading Economic Indicators
(source: Conference Board, % change in last 6 months)
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15

12. #WBInsights15
Question #2:
If the economy is truly back to normal,
why is job growth feel so timid?

13. #WBInsights15
Change in Employment
(non-farm payrolls)
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15

14. #WBInsights15
State Employment (Jobs Lost)
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
NorthDakota
Alaska
DistrictofCol
SouthDakota
Texas
Nebraska
WestVirginia
NewYork
Louisiana
Massachusetts
Iowa
Oklahoma
NewHampshire
Vermont
Pennsylvania
Montana
Maine
Kansas
Arkansas
Virginia
Wyoming
Minnesota
Missouri
Maryland
NewMexico
Colorado
Washington
Wisconsin
NewJersey
Kentucky
RhodeIsland
Mississippi
Connecticut
Illinois
Hawaii
Indiana
Utah
Delaware
Tennessee
Alabama
Ohio
NorthCarolina
SouthCarolina
Georgia
California
Oregon
Idaho
Michigan
Florida
Arizona
Nevada

15. #WBInsights15
State Employment (Net Change)
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
NorthDakota
Texas
DistrictofCol
Utah
Alaska
Colorado
Washington
NewYork
Massachusetts
SouthDakota
Oklahoma
Nebraska
California
Louisiana
Iowa
Montana
Tennessee
Minnesota
Idaho
SouthCarolina
Kentucky
Vermont
Georgia
Maryland
Kansas
Oregon
NorthCarolina
Indiana
Wyoming
Florida
Hawaii
Delaware
WestVirginia
Virginia
Pennsylvania
NewHampshire
Arkansas
Michigan
Wisconsin
Ohio
Connecticut
RhodeIsland
Illinois
Missouri
NewJersey
NewMexico
Arizona
Mississippi
Maine
Alabama
Nevada

16. #WBInsights15
US Employment Shift by Sector
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Total
Mining
Const
Manuf
TT&Util
Info
Fin
Prof&BizSer
Educ&HC
Leis&Hosp
OtherServ
Govt
Loss Recover

17. #WBInsights15
Change in Employment: GA & ATL
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan-03
Jun-03
Nov-03
Apr-04
Sep-04
Feb-05
Jul-05
Dec-05
May-06
Oct-06
Mar-07
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
US
GA
ATL

18. #WBInsights15
Job Growth by Sector
(July 2014 to July 2015)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade,Tran&Util
Information
Financial
Prof&BizService
Educ&HealthCare
Leisure&Hospitality
OtherServives
Government
US
GA
ATL

19. #WBInsights15
Employment Change: GA Cities
GEORGIA
Albany
Athens
Atlanta
Augusta
Brunswick
Columbus
Dalton
Gainesville
Hinesville
Macon
Rome
Savannah
Valdosta
Warner Robins
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Recovery
Recession

20. #WBInsights15
Employment: Georgia
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
GEORGIA
Albany
Athens
Atlanta
Augusta
Brunswick
Columbus
Dalton
Gainesville
Hinesville
Macon
Rome
Savannah
Valdosta
WarnerRobins
Net L12M

21. #WBInsights15
Best Since 2007
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Nashville
Lafeyette
Raleigh
NewOrleans
BatonRouge
Charlestion
NorthernVirginia
Durham/CH
Charlotte
Savannah
Miami
Orlando
Knoxville
Lexington
Augusta
Louisville
Greenville
Richmond
Jacksonville
Asheville
Atlanta
Columbia
Huntsville

22. #WBInsights15
Question #3:
Oil prices have pulled back again.
Okay, gas is cheaper, but is it good or
bad for growth?
. . . and, are the inflation worries on or
off the table?

23. #WBInsights15
Prices:
Still talk of Deflation/Inflation?
• CPI up by 0.2% in October after having falling
by 0.2% and 0.1% in September and August.
• Core CPI up 0.2% in October after having been
up by 0.2% and 0.1% in September and August.
• Overall CPI up 0.2% unchanged over last 12
months. Core up 1.9% over same period.
• Energy component was up by 0.3% last month
and down by 17.1% over the last 12 months

24. #WBInsights15
Core CPI & Core PCE
(% change, L12M)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Core CPI
Core PCE

25. #WBInsights15
Crude Oil
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15

26. #WBInsights15
Who Gets Hurt By Higher Energy Prices?
Positive
Small Negative
Avg Negative
Large Negative

27. #WBInsights15
Question #4:
"Operation Twist" finished at the end of
2012. So now, the question shifts to exit
strategy?
. . . “Taper” done, when rate hikes?
. . . and what about financial institutions
balance sheets?
. . . and are we still “deleveraging”?

28. #WBInsights15
Federal Funds Rate
Short Rates on Hold to early 2016?
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20% Jan-80
Jan-82
Jan-84
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14

29. #WBInsights15
10-Year Treasury Bonds: When
Up?
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15

30. #WBInsights15
“Five Little PIIGS”
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain
Mar-15
Jun-15

31. #WBInsights15
MBA Mortgage Activity:
Purchase & Refinance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1997-Q1
1997-Q2
1997-Q3
1997-Q4
1998-Q1
1998-Q2
1998-Q3
1998-Q4
1999-Q1
1999-Q2
1999-Q3
1999-Q4
2000-Q1
2000-Q2
2000-Q3
2000-Q4
2001-Q1
2001-Q2
2001-Q3
2001-Q4
2002-Q1
2002-Q2
2002-Q3
2002-Q4
2003-Q1
2003-Q2
2003-Q3
2003-Q4
2004-Q1
2004-Q2
2004-Q3
2004-Q4
2005-Q1
2005-Q2
2005-Q3
2005-Q4
2006-Q1
2006-Q2
2006-Q3
2006-Q4
2007-Q1
2007-Q2
2007-Q3
2007-Q4
2008-Q1
2008-Q2
2008-Q3
2008-Q4
2009-Q1
2009-Q2
2009-Q3
2009-Q4
2010-Q1
2010-Q2
2010-Q3
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
Purch
Refi

32. #WBInsights15
Bank Credit Loosening?
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr-90
Feb-91
Dec-91
Oct-92
Aug-93
Jun-94
Apr-95
Feb-96
Dec-96
Oct-97
Aug-98
Jun-99
Apr-00
Feb-01
Dec-01
Oct-02
Aug-03
Jun-04
Apr-05
Feb-06
Dec-06
Oct-07
Aug-08
Jun-09
Apr-10
Feb-11
Dec-11
Oct-12
Aug-13
Jun-14
Apr-15
Large & Med Small

33. #WBInsights15
C&I Demand Stronger?
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-92
Oct-92
Jul-93
Apr-94
Jan-95
Oct-95
Jul-96
Apr-97
Jan-98
Oct-98
Jul-99
Apr-00
Jan-01
Oct-01
Jul-02
Apr-03
Jan-04
Oct-04
Jul-05
Apr-06
Jan-07
Oct-07
Jul-08
Apr-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jul-11
Apr-12
Jan-13
Oct-13
Jul-14
Apr-15
Large & Med Small

34. #WBInsights15
Loan Spread over COF
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr-90
Feb-91
Dec-91
Oct-92
Aug-93
Jun-94
Apr-95
Feb-96
Dec-96
Oct-97
Aug-98
Jun-99
Apr-00
Feb-01
Dec-01
Oct-02
Aug-03
Jun-04
Apr-05
Feb-06
Dec-06
Oct-07
Aug-08
Jun-09
Apr-10
Feb-11
Dec-11
Oct-12
Aug-13
Jun-14
Apr-15
Large & Med Small

35. #WBInsights15
Loan Delinquency
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Jan-91
Nov-91
Sep-92
Jul-93
May-94
Mar-95
Jan-96
Nov-96
Sep-97
Jul-98
May-99
Mar-00
Jan-01
Nov-01
Sep-02
Jul-03
May-04
Mar-05
Jan-06
Nov-06
Sep-07
Jul-08
May-09
Mar-10
Jan-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Jul-13
Credit Card
Consumer
Business

36. #WBInsights15
Charge Off Rates
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Jan-91
Oct-91
Jul-92
Apr-93
Jan-94
Oct-94
Jul-95
Apr-96
Jan-97
Oct-97
Jul-98
Apr-99
Jan-00
Oct-00
Jul-01
Apr-02
Jan-03
Oct-03
Jul-04
Apr-05
Jan-06
Oct-06
Jul-07
Apr-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jul-10
Apr-11
Jan-12
Oct-12
Jul-13
Apr-14
Jan-15
Biz CRE

37. #WBInsights15
Question #5:
Historically, residential and
commercial real estate have been
important parts of the economy, is the
ongoing recovery sustainable??

38. #WBInsights15
Construction Spending: Source
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20% Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Public Private

39. #WBInsights15
Construction Spending: By Sector
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40% Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Residential Non-Residential

40. #WBInsights15
Non-Residential Construction
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Lodging
Office
Commercial
Healthcare
Educational
Religious
Publicsafety
Amuse&Rec
Transportation
Communication
Power
Highwayandstreet
Sewage&wastedisp
Watersupply
Conservanddevelop
Manufacturing
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15

41. #WBInsights15
US Housing Starts: SF and Total
(12 month moving average)
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Total SF

42. #WBInsights15
US Housing Starts: Multi-family
(12 month moving average)
0
75
150
225
300
375
450
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15

43. #WBInsights15
ATL Housing Starts: SF and Total
(12 month moving average)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000 Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15

44. #WBInsights15
ATL Housing Starts: Multi-family
(12 month moving average)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15

45. #WBInsights15
The Demographics: Boom & Bust

46. #WBInsights15
Demographics: Living Longer
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

47. #WBInsights15
Home Prices & CPI
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
CPI Case-Shiller

48. #WBInsights15
CS/S&P Home Price Index
(FROM PEAK TO JUNE 2015)
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Dallas
Denver
Boston
Charlotte
Cleveland
NewYork
National-US
Portland
Seattle
Washington
Composite-20
Composite-10
Minneapolis
Chicago
Atlanta
LosAngeles
SanDiego
SanFrancisco
Detroit
Tampa
Miami
Phoenix
LasVegas
Drop Since peak

49. #WBInsights15
Home Prices: SE Region
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1998Q1
1998Q3
1999Q1
1999Q3
2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
AL AR FL GA KY LA MO
MS NC SC TN TX VA

50. #WBInsights15
GA MSA Home Prices
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Albany
Athens
Atlanta
Augusta
Brunswick
Columbus
Dalton
Gainesville
Hinesville
Macon
Rome
Savannah
Valdosta
WarnerRobins
Bust
Recover
Net

51. #WBInsights15
Case Shiller: Atlanta & US-20
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30% Jan-01
Jun-01
Nov-01
Apr-02
Sep-02
Feb-03
Jul-03
Dec-03
May-04
Oct-04
Mar-05
Aug-05
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
ATL
CS-20
US

52. #WBInsights15
Household RE Equity
(in $ Billions)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…
J…

53. #WBInsights15
Question #6:
“Fiscal cliffs” have faded (or not)? If so,
where do we head politically? What will
“shared governance” look like? Is
another DC showdown ahead?

54. #WBInsights15
Currents Issues in Fiscal Affairs
• Federal:
– Government default avoided in 2011 & 2013 – what about 2015?
– Out of Play: Affordable Care Act
– In Play: Keystone, Dodd-Frank, EPA, NLRB, SCOTUS.
– Student debt?
• States:
– Bond ratings preserved during downturn
– Tax Reform Initiatives in other States
– Recent gains in manufacturing facilities due to “reshoring”
– SE states domination biz location ranking, but not exclusive
• Local:
– RE valuation and revenues rising
– Fiscal distress moderating