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Climate Change in the Arctic

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Climate Change in the Arctic

  1. 1. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC Zachary Labe Postdoc at Colorado State University 1 November 2021 CASSINI Hackathon Finland Nordic Startup School @ZLabe
  2. 2. ZACHARY LABE, PH.D. Climate Scientist at Colorado State University, USA zmlabe@rams.colostate.edu RESEARCHER Climate signal vs. weather noise @ZLabe COMMUNICATOR RESEARCHER Arctic climate change STORYTELLER Simple, bold data visualization
  3. 3. Warmer Colder Now! Start of satellite-era
  4. 4. Polar Amplification: acceleration of warming in high latitudes relative to the rest of the globe
  5. 5. Polar Amplification: acceleration of warming in high latitudes relative to the rest of the globe
  6. 6. The Arctic.
  7. 7. The Arctic.
  8. 8. WHY? Sea ice extent is dropping at a rate of nearly 0.8 million km2/decade Temperatures rising >3x as fast as the globally averaged mean
  9. 9. Satellite-era Uncertainties!
  10. 10. Climate Variability R e c e n t A r c t i c A m p l i f i c a t i o n
  11. 11. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
  12. 12. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
  13. 13. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
  14. 14. [Goosse et al. 2018]
  15. 15. Ice-covered No Ice
  16. 16. Observing ice.
  17. 17. SEA-ICE EXTENT 2 km
  18. 18. SEA-ICE THICKNESS 1.5 m
  19. 19. NASA Scientific Visualization Studio
  20. 20. We also use climate models!
  21. 21. Modeling vs. Field Work
  22. 22. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
  23. 23. Snow pits
  24. 24. MOSAiC – 2019/2020 https://mosaic-expedition.org/science/
  25. 25. Trends & Variability.
  26. 26. The extent of Arctic sea ice is decreasing…
  27. 27. The thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing…
  28. 28. The volume of Arctic sea ice is decreasing…
  29. 29. The age of Arctic sea ice is getting younger…
  30. 30. Future projections.
  31. 31. Climate model projection of summer sea ice through 2100
  32. 32. 1920-1962 1980-1997 1998-2015 2006-2042 1963-2005 2043-2080 LENS LABE ET AL. 2018, JCLI Historical Record Future Projections A CLIMATE MODEL
  33. 33. Changes to weather.
  34. 34. JET STREAM [Visualization by NASA/JPL Hyperwall]
  35. 35. WHY? How does Arctic amplification influence extreme weather events? Has it? Will it? Can it? Necessary to understand mechanisms of Arctic climate variability before assessing future local/remote responses Barnes and Screen [2015]
  36. 36. COLD EXTREMES LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
  37. 37. Regional impacts.
  38. 38. [International Arctic Research Center [IARC; University of Alaska, Fairbanks]
  39. 39. Increasing economic activity in the Arctic
  40. 40. Looking back.
  41. 41. https://www.oldweather.org/
  42. 42. Looking ahead.
  43. 43. October-November – Relative to the years of 1951-1980 Our planet without change…
  44. 44. ARCTIC NORTHERN HEMISPHERE [Modified from SWIPA, 2017] [0°C] [14°C] [7°C] High Emissions Low Emissions Climate Model Projections Climate Model Projections
  45. 45. It’s not too late!
  46. 46. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
  47. 47. KEY POINTS Zachary Labe zmlabe@rams.colostate.edu @ZLabe Climate change has already emerged in the Arctic. Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. We can still prevent the worst of the impacts in the Arctic.

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