This document summarizes a presentation given by Dr. Veronika Rabl on topics related to changes in the U.S. energy sector including electric generation, electricity grids, and electric transportation. It discusses the decline of coal generation and rise of natural gas, growth of renewable energy, an aging conventional generation fleet, and recommendations to support nuclear power and reduce carbon emissions.

1. DR. VERONIKA RABL
Principal, Vision & Results
Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee
Washington, DC
NATO Advanced Study Institute on Energy Security
October 4-11, 2015
Antalya, Turkey

2. DR. VERONIKA RABL
Principal, Vision & Results
Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee
Washington, DC
NATO Advanced Study Institute on Energy Security
October 4-11, 2015
Antalya, Turkey

3. 3
http://www.ieeeusa.org/POLICY/positions/IEEE-USA-NEPR-2014.pdf

4. 4
Summary
 Restructured power sector
 most utilities are now distribution companies (LSE)
 generation & transmission spun off
 the term “utility” lost its meaning
 Distributed decision-making
 Continuing substitution of natural gas &
renewables for coal generation – profound
changes in grid operational requirements
 Fragmented regulatory structure - an obstacle to
progress

5. 5
Topics
 U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
 Electric generation
 LCA exercise
 Electricity grid
 Wholesale markets
 Integrating renewables
 Smart Grid
 End-use – electric transportation
 LCA exercise

6. 6
U.S. Economy in Perspective
Source: Perry, M., “Putting the ridiculously large $18 trillion US economy into perspective by comparing state GDPs to entire countries,”
American Enterprise Institute, June 2015

7. 7
Separated by Common Language?
 billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe (?)
 1012 = trillion
 Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu
 MBtu could be 1 thousand Btu
 MMBtu is 1 million Btu
 Even the definition of efficiency is not consistent!
 Fuel energy content HHV vs LHV
 Efficiencies in Europe are 5 – 10% higher (or as high as
18% for H2 fuel cell)

8. 8
Topics
 U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
 Electric generation
 LCA exercise
 Electricity grid
 Wholesale markets
 Integrating renewables
 Smart Grid
 End-use – electric transportation
 LCA exercise

9. 9
2014 U.S. Energy Flow Chart
Source: LLNL; https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/

10. 10
All Eyes on Electricity Industry
 Electricity use accounts for about a third of U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions

11. 11
Regulatory Pressures
 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new and
existing plants
 Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation (coal ash
disposal)?
 Cross-State Air Pollution Rule
 Performance standards for GHG emissions
Virtually every coal plant must
RETROFIT, RETIRE OR REPOWER

12. 12
Natural Gas Replacing Coal
 Good News, Bad News
 Less expensive than just about any other form of
generation
 EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions between now
and 2035
 May slow momentum or displace renewables
 May substitute for storage
 Not coordinated with electricity markets
 Competition with residential heating

13. 13
Coal down, Gas up → CO2 down
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review September 2013
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
MillionMetricTonsofCO2
PETROLEUM
COAL
NATURAL GAS

14. 14
Some Bad News
Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA January 12, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19531

15. 15
From Net Imports to Net Exports
Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA, July 8, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21972

16. 16
Topics
 U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
 Electric generation
 LCA exercise
 Electricity grid
 Wholesale markets
 Integrating renewables
 Smart Grid
 End-use – electric transportation
 LCA exercise

17. 17
U.S. Generating Capacity

18. 18
Greening the Power Supply
 IEEE-USA RECOMMENDATIONS
 Expanding the Use of Renewable Electric Generation
 Reducing Carbon Emissions from Fossil Power Plants
 Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generation

19. 19
NET GENERATION/RENEWABLES
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, DOE/EIA-0383(2012), June 2012

20. 20
Renewables
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review, September 2015
About 13% of electricity was generated from renewables in 2014
(Billion kilowatthours) (Quadrillion Btu)

21. 21
68 GW of Installed Wind Capacity
Source: “US Wind Industry Second Quarter 2015 Market Report,” AWEA, July 2015; http://www.awea.org/2q2015

22. 22
The Future of Tax Credits?
Source: PTC Fact Sheet, AWEA; retrieved Oct. 2015 from http://www.awea.org/Advocacy/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=797
The Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) expired at the end of 2014

23. 23
29 states and DC have RPS policies
8 more have non-binding goals
Source: DSIRE; http://www.dsireusa.org/resources/detailed-summary-maps/
www.dsireusa.org / June 2015
WA: 15% x 2020*
OR: 25%x 2025*
(large utilities)
CA: 33%
x 2020
MT: 15% x 2015
NV: 25% x
2025* UT: 20% x
2025*†
AZ: 15% x
2025*
ND:10% x 2015
NM: 20%x 2020
(IOUs)
HI: 100% x 2045
CO: 30% by 2020
(IOUs) *†
OK: 15% x
2015
MN:26.5%
x 2025 (IOUs)
31.5% x 2020 (Xcel)
MI: 10% x
2015*†WI: 10%
2015
MO:15% x
2021
IA: 105 MW IN:
10% x
2025†
IL: 25%
x 2026
OH: 12.5%
x 2026
NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)
VA: 15%
x 2025†
KS: 20% x 2020
ME: 40% x 2017
29 States +
Washington DC + 3
territories have a Renewable
Portfolio Standard
(8 states and 1 territories have
renewable portfolio goals)
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewableportfolio goal Includes non-renewable alternative resources* Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
†
U.S. Territories
DC
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015*
SD:10% x 2015
SC:2% 2021
NMI: 20% x 2016
PR: 20% x 2035
Guam:25% x 2035
USVI: 30% x 2025
NH: 24.8 x 2025
VT: 75% x 2032
MA: 15% x 2020(new resources)
6.03% x 2016 (existing resources)
RI: 14.5% x 2019
CT: 27% x 2020
NY: 29% x 2015
PA: 18% x 2021†
NJ: 20.38% RE x 2020
+ 4.1% solar by 2027
DE: 25% x 2026*
MD: 20% x 2022
DC: 20% x 2020

24. 24
44 States + DC have MANDATORY
net metering requirements
Source: DSIRE; http://www.dsireusa.org/resources/detailed-summary-maps/
State-developed mandatory rules for certain utilities
No uniform or statewide mandatory rules, but some utilities allow net metering
www.dsireusa.org / March 2015
* State policy applies to certain utility types only (e.g., investor-owned utilities)
Note:Numbers indicate individual system capacity limitin kW. Percentages refer to customer demand.Some limits vary by customer type, technology and/or application.Other
limits mightalso apply.This map generally does notaddress statutory changes until administrative rules have been adopted to implementsuch changes.
WA: 100
OR: 25/2,000*
CA: 1,000*
MT: 50*
NV: 1,000*
UT: 25/2,000*
AZ: 125%
ND: 100*
NM: 80,000*
WY: 25*
HI: 100*
CO: 120%*
OK: 100*
MN: 40
AR: 25/300
MI: 150*
WI: 20*
MO: 100
IA: 500*
IN: 1,000*
IL: 40*
FL: 2,000*
KY: 30*
OH: no limit*
GA: 10/100
NC: 1,000*
VA: 20/1,000*
NE: 25
KS: 15/100/150*
ME: 660*
AK: 25*
State: kW limit residential/ kW limit nonresidential
U.S. Territories:
AmericanSamoa: 30
Guam: 25/100
PuertoRico: 25/1,000/5,000
Virgin Islands: 20/100/500
LA: 25/300
44 States + DC,
AS, Guam, USVI, & PR
have mandatory net
metering rules
DC
WV: 25/50/500/2,000
VT: 20/250/2,200
NH: 1,000
MA: 60/1,000/2,000/10,000*
RI: 5,000*
CT: 2,000/3,000*
NY: 10/25/500/1,000/2,000*
PA: 50/3,000/5,000*
NJ: no limit*
DE:25/100/2,000*
MD: 2,000
DC: 1,000/5,000/120%
SC: 20/1,000*

25. 25
State Incentives Accounted for
Over ½ of Capacity Added 2010-2013
Source: State RPS Policies and Solar Energy Impacts, Experiences, Challenges, and Lessons Learned , LBL Nov. 2013;
http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/seia-webinar-nov-2013.pdf

26. 26
Aging Power Generation Fleet
About 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacity
was 30 years or older at the end of 2010

27. 27
Decline in Coal Generation
Source: EIA and http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/eia-forecast-fossil-fuels-remain-dominant-through-2040/
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
COAL
Petroleum

28. 28
Coal Retirements Continue in 2015
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, March 2015
Note: Other renewables include hydroelectric, biomass/wood, and geothermal

29. 29
CCGT Competes with Baseload Coal
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)

30. 30
How Long Before Prices Go Up?
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, August 2015; http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-gas/overview/ngas-ovr-lng-wld-pr-est.pdf
Units: $/ MMBtu

31. 31
Gas shortage at home?!
Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA January 12, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19531

32. 32
Nuclear
 Traditionally the lowest cost electricity
 Clean generation option
BUT
 Post-Fukushima public acceptance issues
 High initial cost a significant barrier
 Aging fleet; last reactor started up in 1996

33. 33
Nuclear Fleet Aging Too
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21
 The average age of U.S. commercial reactors is
about 32 years
 The oldest entered commercial service in 1969
 The last newly built reactor entered service in 1996
 Tennessee Valley Authority is completing an on-site
addition planned to begin operation in 2013 2015
 U.S. commercial nuclear reactors are licensed to
operate for 40 years by the U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC).

34. 34
Two Plants Licensed Early 2012
another in 2015 …More to Come?
Source: Nuclear Regulatory Commission, July 2015; http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html

35. 35
Major Recommendations/ Nuclear
 Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel management
program that would close the fuel cycle and
develop a disposal facility as mandated by the
Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982
 Advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies
to reduce proliferation concerns, and to reduce
the volume and lifetime of wastes

36. 36
Where will electricity come from?
 Coal in decline for the foreseeable future
 High risk (carbon regulation)
 CCUS?
 Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions
 Renewables may grow even in absence of federal
carbon policy
 And the rest? Nuclear?

37. 37
Maybe it doesn’t matter?!
Alarming headlines:
 All that waste of energy!
The lack of basic understanding of energy
needs, supplies, and processes is astounding!
… but it influences our energy policy and
misleads energy users.

38. 38
Wasted Energy:
The numbers will astound you
Source: “Wasted energy: The numbers will astound you,” Fierce Energy, Oct 2, 2015; http://www.fierceenergy.com
 A whopping 54 percent of the total energy used to generate electricity in the
United Kingdom is wasted before it even gets to homes and businesses,
according to a report released on end of September 2015.
 The total economic value of the energy wasted by Britain's electric grid is
estimated to be about $14 billion (£9.5) billion (109 ?) annually.
 To put this in perspective, this is equivalent to more than half the average
home's annual electricity bill in the UK. The environmental impact of the
prodigious energy waste is arguably even more mind numbingly huge. The
annual carbon emissions attributed to the energy wasted in the UK is
equivalent to that created by every car in the UK.
 "If half of current centralized thermal generation was instead directly
connected at the distribution level near demand, the avoided transmission
losses would save energy users £135 million annually," said the report.

39. 39
What’s Wrong with this Picture?
Source: “Less Waste, More Growth,” September 2015; http://www.theade.co.uk/less-waste-more-growth--boosting-energy-productivity-_3479.html

40. 40
What’s Wrong with this Picture?
Source: Paraphrased from comment by Tom Schneider, member of IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee; http://www.fierceenergy.com
 Electricity is used to provide light and mechanical work as well as
computation, communications and control. These services cannot be
provided by water at ~80 deg F.
 With a heat pump even a generator with “losses” of 2/3 delivers more useful
"heat" than combined heat and power. Very little electricity is used to
generate heat through resistors.
 The “lost” energy is not the rejected heat at ambient to water and air but the
high temperature which might be used in a topping cycle. Today’s natural gas
combined cycle systems are close to the practical limits of efficiency given our
current materials and the available flame temperature.
LEARN THE LAWS OF THERMODYNAMICS AND SAVE ENERGY!

41. 41
CHP Efficiency
What’s Wrong with this Picture?
Source: EPA; retrieved Oct. 2, 2015 from http://www3.epa.gov/chp/basic/methods.html (now with some explanations)

42. 42
Biomass
 LCA is difficult because of the importance of
temporal dimension and indirect impacts, e.g.,
arable land and water.
 EPA still working on the subject, but some states
provide incentives
WE HAVE THE ETHANOL EROI PROBLEM
NOW WE ARE ABOUT TO TOP IT!

43. 43
Europe’s climate policies…
Source: Washington Post, June 15, 2015
…led to more trees being cut down in the U.S.
“Every morning, logging crews go to work in densely wooded bottomlands along the
Roanoke River, clearing out every tree and shrub down to the bare dirt. Each day, dozens of
trucks haul freshly cut oaks and poplars to a nearby factory where the wood is converted
into small pellets, to be used as fuel in European power plants.
Soaring demand for woody fuel has led to the construction of more than two dozen pellet
factories in the Southeast in the past decade, along with special port facilities in Virginia and
Georgia where mountains of pellets are loaded onto Europe-bound freighters. European
officials promote the trade as part of the fight against climate change. Burning “biomass”
from trees instead of coal, they say, means fewer greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”.
“can increase carbon emissions relative to coal for many
decades — anywhere from 35 to 100 years”

44. 44
Wood Pellets – Big Business
Source: Wood Pellets Are Big Business (And For Some, a Big Worry”’ Forbes, February 2015

45. 45
Where will electricity come from?
 Coal in decline for the foreseeable future
 High risk (carbon regulation)
 CCUS?
 Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions
 Renewables may grow even in absence of federal
carbon policy
 And the rest? Nuclear?

46. 46
Electricity – Engine of Progress
Developed from EIA data
Electrification
• Electricity use is
increasing in both
absolute and
RELATIVE terms
Increasing energy
productivity
• It takes less-and-less
energy to fuel the
economy0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%primaryenergyusedforelectricity
ThousandBtu/chained(2005)dollars
Energy
Use/$GDP
Electricity
Fraction

47. 47
Energy – GDP Relationship
Source: Columbia University

48. 48
Topics
 U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
 Electric generation
 LCA exercise
 Electricity grid
 Wholesale markets
 Integrating renewables
 Smart Grid
 End-use – electric transportation
 LCA exercise

49. U.S. Electric Grid
49

50. 50
Network of
 10,000 power plants (~1,000 GW, ~4,000 billion kWh)
 150,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) transmission
lines
 Millions of miles of lower-voltage distribution lines
 More than 12,000 substations
 ~150 million customers
U.S. Electric Grid

51. 51
Complex and Splintered Market
and Regulatory Regime
Competition
Local
Regulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
SCSC MOMO
MEME TOTO
SOSO
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
Competition
Local
Regulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
RC MO
BA TO
TOP
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
RC-
MO - Market Operator
TOP -
- Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
RC– Reliability Coordinator
MO – Market Operator
TOP – TransmissionOperator
BA – Balancing Authority
TO – TransmissionOwner
 Many players
 Not necessarily
conducive to
cooperation or
optimal system
design
 Market
efficiency vs.
system
efficiency

52. 52
NERC Regions & Balancing
Authorities
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation

53. 53
Wholesale Markets & Operations
Federal jurisdiction
Source: NERC (RTO – Regional Transmission Organization, ISO – Independent System Operator)

54. 54
Markets vs. Electricity
 Is electricity a commodity?
 Public goods elements?
 Market efficiency or system efficiency?
 Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoff's circuit
laws topology
 RTO market rules are not uniform

55. 55
State Jurisdiction
 Retail rates for regulated utilities
 Construction of transmission, new generation
 Implementation of environmental regulations
The regulatory structure has built-in conflicts

56. 56
RTOs Span Several States
Source: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012

57. 57
Physical Infrastructure
Transmission Constraints
Source: National Electric Congestion Study 2009

58. 58
Electric Power Markets
Source: FERC, http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-electric/overview.asp

59. 59
Natural Gas Markets
Source: FERC, http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-gas/overview.asp

60. 60
Incentives for renewables
 Renewable portfolio standards
 Net metering
 Tax incentives
 Increasing wind (transmission) and solar
(distribution)
 Some “interesting” dilemmas for organized
markets – priority, negative bids

61. 61
Operational Impacts
Source: Renewable Energy Futures, Vol. 4, NREL
Steeper ramps
and lower
turndown
levels require
increased
flexibility for
systems with
large amounts
of wind

62. Source: CAISO http://www.caiso.com/Documents/2020_Flexible_Capacity_Needs.pdf
Duck Curve

63. 63
Renewables in Germany

64. 64
U.S. DOE asked IEEE for insights on
a specific set of priority issues
IEEE JOINT TASK FORCE ON QUADRENNIAL ENERGY REVIEW
 Effects of renewable intermittency on the grid and the potential role of
storage
 Business case issues related to microgrids and distributed generation (DG),
including rooftop photovoltaics
 The technical implications for the grid of electric vehicle (EV) integration
 The implications and importance of aging infrastructure and the options for
addressing these challenges, including asset management
 Recommendations for metrics for addressing Smart Grid issues, especially to
help policy makers determine the importance and necessity of protocols
 Skilled workforce issues
 Report cards on the condition and performance of the electric grid
IEEE QER Report: http://www.ieee-pes.org/qer

65. 65
Renewable Intermittency & Storage
Grid Level:
 Uncertainty of renewable sources can be tolerated at penetration
levels around 30% (system studies and real world experience)
 Traditional power system planning and operations need to be
updated, incl. cooperation among balancing areas
 Energy storage, while a useful and flexible system tool, is not
essential as other often more cost-effective options are available,
such as fast responding generation and demand response
IEEE JOINT TASK FORCE ON QUADRENNIAL ENERGY REVIEW

66. 66
Renewable Intermittency & Storage
 Distribution: High penetration
of renewable DG creates
challenges; solutions include
 Low-cost distributed storage systems
 Advanced power electronics
technologies
 Real-time monitoring, control and
automation.
Before DG
After DG
Distribution
Voltage Profile

67. Critical Needs
 Standards
 Interconnection (based on static and dynamic conditions)
 Big data handling, stream computing and analytics
 Software/Models
 Tools/process models for integrated systems analysis and
operation
 Policy
 Address issues associated with devices that operate
across institutional, regulatory, and information
architectural boundaries
67

68. 68
Microgrids
 Often adversarial relationships

69. 69
Optimized Hybrid Microgrids
 Power grid and micgrogrids must work synergistically to
fulfill all the needs, e.g. serving all the load all the time
 Policy should support value creation and not unduly favor
either incumbent utilities or non-utility MG sponsors
 Assessing costs should include efficiency, reliability, safety,
optimizing life-cycle costs, and resilience for the grid
 Costs and benefits apportioned in a multi- stakeholder microgrid
business case
 Regulatory policy to reward costs incurred in planning,
operational changes, and the optimal integration of assets
 New tools and Standards, e.g. IEEE 1547 Series

70. 70
Old-Fashioned Planning
FIXED

71. 71
Major Infrastructure Issues
 Increasingly complex and competitive bulk
power market is adding stress to the grid
 Grid congestion and higher transmission losses
 Higher rates for electricity
 Splintered physical and market jurisdictions
impede
 effective coordination between large-scale and distribution-
scale technology options
 rational system planning

72. 72
Building a Stronger and Smarter
Electrical Energy Infrastructure
 Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid
 Expanding the Transmission System
 Accommodating New Types of Generation and
New Loads
 Variable generation
 Local generation, PV; microgrids
 Plug-in vehicles

73. 73
Smart Grid Promise
Source: Adapted from Massoud Amin, Smart Grid definition, 01-27-1998
Highly Instrumented
Advanced Sensors and Computing
Interconnected by a
Communication Fabric that Reaches Every Node
POWER OF INFORMATION
 REDUCING COSTS OF
ELECTRICITY OR REDUCING
RATE OF INCREASE IN COSTS
 SUBSTITUTING INTELLIGENCE
FOR PHYSICAL ASSETS
 ENGAGING CONSUMERS
 ENHANCING EFFICIENCY
 ENSURING RELIABILITY AND
REDUCING OUTAGES AND
OUTAGE DURATION
 ENABLING RENEWABLES
 ENABLING ELECTRIC
TRANSPORTATION

74. 74
Reduce outage costs by
$50 billion/yr

75. 75
Creating New Capabilities
 Must build the enabling infrastructure
 Funding for open standard communications protocols
 Removing institutional barriers
 Data → Knowledge → Whole new spectrum of
applications
 From better grid management…
 …to new services for consumers

76. 76
Topics
 U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
 Electric generation
 LCA exercise
 Electricity grid
 Wholesale markets
 Integrating renewables
 Smart Grid
 End-use – electric transportation
 LCA exercise

77. 77
Transportation
 National Security Risk
 Vital economic sector
 Almost entirely oil
 About 70% of entire U.S. petroleum use
 Major Source of Pollutants
 Urban smog
 About 30% of U.S. GHG emissions
 Cannot capture dispersed emissions

78. 78
Transforming Transportation
by Diversifying Energy Sources
 Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and Hybrid Electric
Vehicles
 Developing and Using Alternative Transportation Fuels

79. 79
Electric and Hybrid Transportation
• Heated discussions concerning the impact of
these vehicles on energy efficiency and
environment, including GHG emissions
• Questions are being raised about the costs of
various options relative to their benefits
• Impact of the new vehicles on T&D and electric
load growth

80. 80
Where the Energy Goes
Source: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012)
GASOLINE
ENGINE
EFFICIENCY
Tank
-to-
Wheels
14 –16%

81. 81
Well-to-Wheels

82. 82
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Well to refinery = .95
 Refining to gasoline = .85
 Gasoline delivery = .97
 Tank to wheels = .14 – .16
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%

83. 83
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%
 Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Delivered to power plant = .95
 Power generation = .35 - .45
 Transmission and distribution = .90 - .93
 Plug to battery = .80 - .90
 Battery to wheels = .80 - .90
 Efficiency of 19% to 32%

84. 84
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%
 Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 19% to 32%

85. 85
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%
 Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 19% to 32%
 Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 27% to 42%

86. 86
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
 Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 11% to 13%
 Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 19% to 32%
 Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
 Efficiency of 27% to 42%
Plug into a coal plant to reduce emissions?!

87. 88
Vehicles Responsible for Most
Precursors of Smog
Source: Our Nation's Air - Status and Trends through 2010, EPA-454/R-12-001, February 2012 (http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/2011/)
DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL TOTAL EMISSIONS ESTIMATES BY SOURCE CATEGORY FOR SPECIFIC POLLUTANTS, 2010

88. 89
Judge by the Future, Not the Past
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 20212, Early Release
U.S. generation mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon
options, led by growth in renewables and gas

89. 90
Integrating PEVs
Source: “Survey Says: Over 40% of American Drivers Could Use an
Electric Vehicle,” Union of Concerned Scientists, December 2013
So why plug in?
Electric vehicles are more fun to drive
and emit less pollution
About 330,000 PEVs on the road
 Generation and transmission
systems can handle millions of
plug-in electric vehicles
 Good understanding of technical
issues on the distribution system
 Potential overloads of distribution
transformers and circuits
 Changes in equipment cooling
patterns
 Inability to accommodate high-
power charging in older
neighborhoods with legacy
distribution infrastructure

90. 91
Does everyone need a fast charger?
Source: Bob Bruninga, IEEE Transportation Committee, http://aprs.org/payin-to-plugin.html
How long does it take to charge the battery for 32 miles?
$300 cord comes with all EVs and outlets exist
Level-1 in 8 hours
$2,000 installed
Level-2 in 2 hours
Source:BobBruninga,IEEE TransportationCommittee,http://aprs.org/payin-to-plugin.html
BUT
Over 40% of cars drive less
than 30 miles/day
An average PEV
• needs only 5 -
10 kWh/day
• can charge from a
standard electric outlet
in 4 - 7 hours
DEMAND MANAGEMENT
an effective complement to other distribution system measures

91. 92
Achilles’ Heel?
Achilles at Achilleion, Corfu (detail); Sculptor Ernst Herter, 1884
COST

92. 93
U.S. DOE EV Everywhere
Grand Challenge
Source: “EV Everywhere Grand Challenge: DOE's 10-Year Vision for Plug-in Electric Vehicles”; http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/ev-
everywhere-grand-challenge-does-10-year-vision-plug-electric-vehicles
GOAL:
PRODUCE PLUG-
IN ELECTRIC
VEHICLES THAT
ARE AS
AFFORDABLE BY
2022 AS A 2012
GASOLINE-
POWERED VEHICLE

93. 94
U.S. DOE EV Everywhere
Grand Challenge
Source: Vehicle Technologies Office: Batteries; http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-batteries
 BATTERY GOALS:
 Reduce the production cost of an electric vehicle
battery to a quarter of its current cost
 Halve the size of an electric vehicle battery
 Halve the weight of an electric vehicle battery
 Achieving these goals would result in:
 Lowering battery cost from $500/kWh to $125/kWh
 Increasing density from 100 Wh/kg to 250 Wh/kg, 200
Wh/l to 400 Wh/l, and 400 W/kg to 2000 W/kg

94. 95
THIS IS JUST THE
BEGINNING…
95

95. 96
Topics
 U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
 Electric generation
 LCA exercise
 Electricity grid
 Wholesale markets
 Integrating renewables
 Smart Grid
 End-use – electric transportation
 LCA exercise

96. 97
Energy Situation
 ENERGY is fundamental for assuring
 Economic prosperity
 National security
 Environmental protection
 ELECTRICITY will continue playing a key role in
addressing the challenges
 Responding to environmental pressures
 Ability to accommodate rapid changes in technology
and uncertainties in supplies

97. 98
Need to take Action NOW
With each passing year
 Global pressures will continue destabilizing
energy markets and prices
 Threat to the economy and national security is growing
 Global warming impacts
 We must invest in technology
 Become better energy stewards
 Reduce impacts on the environment
Electricity is critical in reaching these goals

98. 99
Recommendations
BUILD FLEXIBILITY AND ADAPTABILITY
INTO ALL ELEMENTS OF OUR
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE