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QUESTIONS
1. How could the company have erred so badly in its estimates
of spending patterns of European customers?
2. Could a better reading of the effect of cultural differences on
revenues have been achieved?
3. What suggestions do you have for fostering a climate of
sensitivity and goodwill in corporate dealings with the French?
4. How do you account for the great success of Tokyo
Disneyland and the problems of Euro Disney? What are the key
contributory differences?
5. Do you believe that Euro Disney might have done better if it
were located elsewhere in Europe rather than just outside Paris?
Why or why not?
6. “Mickey Mouse and the Disney Park are an American cultural
abomination.” Evaluate this critical statement.
7. Consider how a strong marketing approach might be made to
both European consumers and middlemen, such as travel agents,
tour guides, even bus drivers.
8. Discuss the desirability of raising admission prices at the
very time when attendance is static, profits are nonexistent, and
new attractions are months and several years in the future.
QUESTIONS
1. As the staff assistant to the president of Euro Disney, you
already believe before the grand opening that the plans to use a
skimming pricing strategy and to emphasize luxury hotel
accommodations are ill advised. What arguments would you
marshal to try to persuade the company to offer lower prices
and more moderate accommodations? Be as persuasive as you
can.
2. It is six months after the opening. Revenues are not meeting
target, and a number of problems have surfaced and are being
worked on. The major problem remains, however, that the
venture needs more visitors or higher expenditures per visitor.
Develop a business model to improve the situation.
3. How would you rid an organization, such as Euro Disney, of
an arrogant mindset? Assume that you are an operational VP
and have substantial resources, but not necessarily the eager
support of top management.
TEAM DEBATE
->Under the topic "Team Debate Exercise" , you will find
information about two camps adopting two opposing positions.
Pick a position and discuss why that is the right approach for
improving the situation.
-> If you were to be appointed as the Chief Marketing Officer
of Euro Disney, what would be your actions to make Euro
Disney a more attractive place for the customers? Explain in
detail.
RESPOND TO FOUR STUDENTS
ROSIE’S POST:
“Positivist Approaches (Positivism) argues that the world exists
independently of people perception of it and that science uses
objective techniques to discover what exists in the world”
(Monette, Sullivan, & DeJong, 2017) From a positivist
approach, the healthcare systems in United States and the
Canadian Healthcare systems are different when providing
healthcare. “Another important difference between positivists
and interpretivists has to do with the role of science: Positivists
argue that scientists merely discover what exists in the world,
but some interpretivists claim that scientist actually help create
social reality through their scientific work.” (Knorr, 1981) To
exhibit this approach, by evaluating both healthcare systems and
revealing the differences between the two.
The United States is viewed as having weaker healthcare system
when providing healthcare to their citizens when the Canadian
Healthcare has a universal healthcare plan that covers all. The
government (Obamacare) in the United States provide
healthcare for those who are poor and can’t afford healthcare
for themselves and if a person can afford and can pay the
premiums to pay for healthcare they have to buy healthcare
through a private sector. The United States healthcare system
put limits on which doctor you can visit and what doctor that
may accept your insurance coverage plan. With the Canadian
Healthcare system, they have a national healthcare system
(NHI) that covers everyone which is universal and provides
equal medical care to all. The taxes provides the healthcare for
everyone and they do not have to pay a premium with unlimited
access to any physician of their choice. The major difference
between the two is the cost. American’s spent more than a
Canadian in healthcare in which the US has no control over the
cost and Canada can control the cost.
Knorr, K. (1981). The Manufacture of Knowledge: An Essay on
the Constructivist and Contextual Nature of Science. Oxford: Pe
rgamon Press.
Monette, D., Sullivan, T. & DeJong, C. (2017). Applied social
research (9th ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu
CAMI’S POST:
Looking at the two approaches I would have to say that I would
choose the positivist approach because those that adopt this
stance often use specific methodologies like quantitative
research (Monette, Sullivan and DeJong, 2017). Quantitative
research uses more of a survey type of research and bases the
result on the numbers they get from the information they derive
from the surveys. Using this would be a good way to find out a
comparison of the programs, how many people are benefitting
from the use of the two programs and then that information
could be broken down into a variety of figures and evidence-
based charts showing which program offers the most benefits.
Positivists approach also sometimes uses a qualitative research
formula that would use field observations and descriptions when
needed (Monette et al, 2017). I think using both types of
research for this approach would open the ability to inspect both
programs using a wide array of data formats.
Reference
Monette, D., Sullivan, T., & DeJong, C. (2017). Applied social
research (9th ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu
SHAWNTOBIA’S POST:
Scientific research relies on the application of methods such as
the scientific method. The scientific method can be used to gain
knowledge and solve problems while the research format is used
to expand on what is discovered. According to Erol (2017) the
scientific method should be neutral, objective, rational, and as a
result, should be able to approve or disapprove the hypothesis.
The research plan should include the procedure to obtain data
and evaluate the variables. The importance of emphasizing the
scientific method as a way to develop scientific research in
order to achieve the objectives set is understood, increasing the
rigor of research to give visibility to information that enables
professional practices to be conscientious and within criteria
that contribute to decision making on care based on validated
scientific information (de Araújo Moraes, 2019). The research
format analyzes the data collected from scientific research in a
standard format that is technical, but general in language so that
it can be communicated and understood by others. This format
poses the research question, hypotheses, methods, analysis, and
conclusions that resulted from methods such as the scientific
method. These concepts both produce data from scientific
research that can for example, deliver answers to questions,
help one make decisions or recommend improvements to meet
the needs of a population.
References
de Araújo Moraes, S. D. T. (2019). Scientific method and
research in health: orientation for professional practice. Revista
Brasileira de Crescimento e Desenvolvimento Humano, 29(1),
5–9. https://doi-org.proxy-
library.ashford.edu/10.7322/jhgd.157742 (Links to an external
site.)
Erol, A. (2017). How to Conduct Scientific Research? Retrieved
from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5491675/
JANICE’S POST:
Winston Churchill, the prime minister of Britain during World
War II, is reported to have said that democracy is an imperfect
form of government, but that it is far superior to all other
forms. Many scientists have similar views, they realize it is
imperfect and limited, but they also recognize that it is far
superior to other sources of knowledge for gaining an
understanding of the world. Science is emperical, systemic,
search for causes, provisional, and it strives for objectivity.
The scientific method is viewed by scientists as preferable to
other ways of gaining knowledge, because it is more likely to
lead to an accurate knowledge of the world. The research
format analyzes the data that's collected. It sometimes focuses
on behavior that is unique or bizarre (Bourgors, Lettiere, &
Quesada, 1997; Miller & Tewksbury, 2001; Polsky, 1967;
Weinberg, 1968). The research method includes the hypothesis,
the research question, and conclusions.
Each of these venues is related in a way that they both have
answers to questions, which gives you knowledge of the world
around you.
References
Monette, D., Sullivan, T. & DeJong, C. (2017). Applied social
research (9th ed.). Retrieved from
https://content.ashford.edu (Links to an external site.)
The Office of Research Integrity (n.d.). Basic research
concepts. Retrieved from
http://ori.hhs.gov/education/products/sdsu/index.html (Links to
an external site.)
EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE:
Hi Markayla,
You gave good descriptions of the scientific method and
research format. As you stated, the scientific method has been
guiding research for a long time. An important characteristic of
the scientific method is that it provides a means of checking the
accuracy or validity of assertions against factual evidence.
These aspects are examples of why I believe it is the preferred
method in research (Nagel, 1961 & Cohen and Nagel, 1934).
Thoughts?
Reference
Ernest Nagel, The Structure of Science (New York: Harcourt,
Brace & World, 1961), pp,4 and 9; and Morris R, Cohen and
Ernest Nagel, An Introduction to Logic and Scientific Method
(New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1934), p,192.
Respond to two peers
Guided Peer Responses: Peer responses should be carefully
crafted and insightful. The goal of the discussion forum is to
foster continual dialogue, similar to what might occur in a
verbal face-to-face exchange. Consider discussing areas of
interest as well as the following questions in your responses:
· Discuss the disorders you shared with your peers.
· Find common symptoms between your peers’ chosen disorders
and yours.
· Discuss any additional treatments that you may be aware of
that your peer may not have included.
STACEY’S POST:
The first condition I have chosen is Tourette’s disorder.
Tourette’s is considered a biological disorder of the brain. The
symptoms for this disorder consist of simple and complex tics
that range from swearing, blinking, shoulder and neck jerking,
arms flinging, and other strange movements (Gertzfeld, 2018).
Sometimes the tics can be a bit more destructive such as head
banging and people with Tourette’s may also bark and shout
obscenities at others (Gertzfeld, 2018).
Stereotype movement disorder and Tourette’s disorder have
some of the same symptoms, such as head banging, waving
limbs, and purposeless motor behavior (American Psychiatric
Association,
2014). Both conditions have repetitive behavior types. The
signs in each disorder can occur many times during the day and
can last for short periods (Gertzfeld, 2018). Genetic disorders
of the nervous system have been shown to cause movement
disorders.
To diagnose a mental illness, one must understand the
symptoms so they can make the right determination of the
diagnosis. A licensed clinician should get to know the patient
and all of their symptoms so they can diagnosis the person
correctly. Throughout history, many people have been
misdiagnosed for mental health issues because it can be
challenging to get the diagnosis correct. Ethical procedures
should be followed to keep things legal and on the right path.
The environment can have an effect on Tourette’s disorder.
When someone observes a person making a gesture or a sound, a
person with a tic disorder may mimic the actions and others may
think it was done on purpose (American Psychiatric
Association, 2014). This can lead to issues when a person with
Tourette’s is interacting with others (American Psychiatric
Association, 2014). The environment may also influence the
development of the brain which can put a person at risk for the
disorder. Internal and external factors such as the environment
can affect tics (Frank, & Cavanna, 2013).
Family is always a good dynamic to have around when
managing an illness. The more the family is educated on ways
to treat the disease, the better off the patient will be. Having
support from your loved ones can make the experiences go
smoother and I think it makes people feel better when they
know there is someone there to support them in their time of
need. Although caring for people with the illness can be
challenging, but if you come together as a family, it can make it
easier.
The second condition I have chosen is conduct disorder.
Conduct disorder is a type of antisocial behavior that displays
in children and young adults (Gertzfeld, 2018). The symptoms
consist of violent acts of rage, such as destructive and deceitful
behavior, bullying, and just a pattern of violating the rules in
general. As a child grows up, they must learn the difference
between hostility that can harm others and decisiveness which is
necessary to interact appropriately in society (Gertzfeld, 2018).
Conduct disorder and antisocial personality disorder have some
of the same characteristics. One of the differences between the
two is age. The diagnosis for adults over the age of 18 who
display aggressive symptoms is an antisocial personality
disorder and if you are under the age of 18 conduct disorder is
the diagnosis (Gertzfeld, 2018). Both disorders violate the
rules and do not adhere to the social norms because people who
suffer from these illnesses thrive on being deceitful, reckless,
and impulsive (Gertzfeld, 2018). Conduct disorder is more
prominent in boys in community settings that have high crime
areas and gang relations (Gertzfeld, 2018). This type of
behavior does not mean the person has a psychological
condition; it just may be the only life they have known
(Gertzfeld, 2018).
Licensed clinicians must get to know a patient’s history and
understand their symptoms so they can make the right
determination of the diagnosis. Being misdiagnosed is always
an issue regarding mental illness because it can be challenging
to determine which one is accurate. The more information the
doctor has, the better chance they will have of diagnosing the
person correctly. Ethical procedures should be followed to keep
things legal and make sure the patient is being treated fairly.
In regard to the environment, some theorists believe that
hardship, drug abuse, introduction to violence, and criminals
contribute to conduct disorder (Gertzfeld, 2018). Neglect from
parents and exposure to disruptive behavior also influence the
disease. Children who are diagnosed with conduct disorder
usually go on to be diagnosed with an antisocial personality
disorder as an adult (Gertzfeld, 2018). The onset and diagnosis
are the same for both sexes, but usually, males exhibit
antisocial personality disorder as adults over females
(Gertzfeld, 2018).
The impact a family has on managing a person with conduct
disorder can be challenging. Because the symptoms are violent,
it can be hard to get control of those issues and that can put
pressure on family members. It is best to get treatment for the
problem through cognitive and behavioral therapies. The
combination of the two therapies together has been shown to be
effective. Supporting your loved one is best in helping to get a
good outcome.
Frank, M., & Cavanna, A. E. (2013). Behavioural treatments for
Tourette syndrome: An evidence-based review. Behavioural
Neurology, 27(1), 105–117. doi: 10.1155/2013/134863 (Links to
an external site.)
Getzfeld, A. R. (2018). Abnormal psychology (2nd ed.).
Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu
JANET’S POST:
The first disorder that I chose to discuss is dementia. Dementia
falls into the category of Neurocognitive Disorders. According
to Getzfeld (2018), dementia is marked by a decline in cognitive
functions such as memory loss, confusion, loss of control of
motor function, and issues with speech. Most of the time,
people think about dementia as being a condition that affects
older adults, but it can present in those much younger. For this
reason, the American Psychological Association decided to
label it as a major neurocognitive disorder. According to the
APA (2013), to meet these criteria, one must have a decline of
cognitive skill from their previous level that affects them in one
or more areas such as memory, language, and motor functions,
to name a few. This type of disorder disrupts one’s daily routine
and can make it difficult to perform tasks that they were always
able to do. When determining if a patient is experiencing
dementia, all other medical causes have to be ruled out. It is not
uncommon for the older adult population to be forgetful, but
there is a difference in aging memory and dementia. Dementia
shows a continued decline in cognition, which is a gradual
process (Getzfeld, 2018). Many things can cause dementia, and
some are reversible while some are not. According to Getzfeld
(2018), dementia can be caused by Alzheimer’s disease,
Parkinson’s disease, stroke, lack of nutrition, and medications.
Gaining a complete history of the patient is essential to
determine if dementia is present and what may be causing it.
Alzheimer’s and dementia have similarities and differences.
One difference that is often confused is that dementia is a class
of cognitive decline while Alzheimer’s is considered a disease.
According to Getzfeld (2018), Alzheimer’s disease changes
brain structures such as the neurofibrils being tangled, plaques,
and arteriosclerosis, which are irreversible. Since Alzheimer’s
cannot be cured or reversed, it shows a difference when
compared to dementia because some causes of dementia can be
reversed. Although they have some differences, they share
similar symptoms. According to Getzfeld (2018), both
Alzheimer’s and dementia affect cognitive function, which
makes it hard for the person to communicate appropriately,
make decisions, remember things, and hinders making new
memories. It is easy to want to interchange dementia and
Alzheimer’s but they are different things even though they share
similar manifestations.
The other disorder that I chose is conduct disorder. Conduct
disorder applies to children and is characterized by aggressive
behavior to others that are deemed harmful (Getzfeld, 2018).
While there are times that it is appropriate for a child to be
aggressive to stand up for themselves, it is different when the
behavior becomes harmful to others with the intent to harm
others. According to the American Psychological Association
(2013), conduct disorder is diagnosed if the child has displayed
harmful behaviors to people and animals for one year in three of
the fifteen categories, which include behaviors such as bullying,
using a weapon that can cause serious physical injury,
destroying property, and participating in a theft. There are also
underlying implications that have to be considered for this
disorder, with one being the environment the child is in.
According to Getzfeld (2018), the environment can play a
significant role in a child developing a conduct disorder. It goes
back to the idea that behavior is modeled; therefore, if they live
in an environment that exposes them to constant violence, then
they may develop disorders such as conduct disorder. According
to Getzfeld (2018), conduct disorder is closely related to
antisocial personality disorder, and the biggest difference
between the two is the age of the individual.
A disorder that is similar and different to conduct disorder is
oppositional defiant disorder. Oppositional defiant disorder is
characterized by a child that throws fits and displays a lot of
anger and resentment (Getzfeld, 2018). Children who have this
disorder constantly fight with authority figures in an attempt to
get their way. The similarity between conduct and oppositional
disorder is that they both attempt to categorize aggressive
behavior in children. The differences are that although those
with oppositional defiant disorder have issues with anger and
revenge, they are not the level of violence that is seen with
conduct disorder. According to the American Psychological
Association (2013), diagnosis of oppositional defiant disorder
requires symptoms be present for six months and include four
displays of behavior such as loss of temper, angry, likes to
argue, does not comply with rules set by authority figures, and
blames others for their mistakes. With either of these disorders,
it is important to know the normal developmental stages of
children so that you will know if the symptoms present are
normal or abnormal.
It is important to understand symptoms of disorders, and there
can be ethical implications if you do not have a complete
picture of the patient and are not licensed to practice. First,
knowing how specific disorders are just the beginning of
becoming a good provider, but it alone could get you into some
trouble. Each person presents differently, and if enough
research about the patient is not gained, it will be hard to
determine what is going on with them. You have to know their
personal history, environment, social interactions, medical
history, and if certain disorders or diseases run in their family.
These are just a few things, but gaining a complete picture will
help guide a clinician to make the correct diagnosis. If a correct
diagnosis is not made, it can have detrimental effects on the
patient and those around them. Lastly, having a license to
practice is essential in determining the diagnosis of a patient.
The absence of a license combined with diagnosing individuals
off of general knowledge of disorders is a dangerous because it
could have legal and financial ramifications.
The environment plays a big role in managing behaviors in
dementia and conduct disorder. The environment of a patient
with dementia should maintain their safety and help them keep
as much of their independence as they can. According to
Getzfeld (2018), the best environment for those with dementia
is to keep them at home although a lot of dementia patients end
up in a nursing home. Those individuals that can stay in their
home can maintain some normalcy to their lives, which may
help combat conditions like depression. If they go into a nursing
home, it may make them feel abandoned and isolated, which
puts them at risk for depression. In conduct disorder, I had
already mentioned how the environment plays a role in their
behavior. These children, because they lack positive attention in
their environment, may cause them to seek the attention that
comes with acting out. According to Getzfeld (2018), violent
behavior gains the child attention and may support bad behavior
because they gain a reward in it. Environment in both these
situations is pivotal on the outcome of the individual.
The impact of managing a loved one that is suffering from
dementia or conduct disorder is vital to understand. First, in
those caring for someone with dementia, it can be life-changing.
It can be very stressful taking on a caregiver role for one’s
parent. According to Laparidou, Middlemass, Karran, and
Siriwardena (2019), caregiver stress is prevalent in caring for
those with dementia and can cause them to develop depression.
Self-care of the caregiver also tends to decrease because of the
time and energy spent taking care of the individual with
dementia. Having a good support system for the caregiver will
help them cope with the added responsibilities that have been
placed on them. Conduct disorder can carry the same stress on a
parent that it does on the individual caring for a patient with
dementia. According to Manor-Binyamini (2012), parents that
had children with conduct disorder reported a decrease in their
personal welfare as well as feeling that they cannot cope with
the situation they are in. No matter the disorder, I feel that there
is added weight placed on the family members because they
want to help their loved one, but providing that help also comes
with detriments to themselves.
American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Section II:
Disruptive, Impulse-Control, and Conduct Disorders. Diagnostic
and statistical manual of mental disorders (5th ed.) (Links to an
external site.) (Links to an external
site.). https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.books.9780890425596 (Link
s to an external site.)
American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Section II:
Neurocognitive Disorders. Diagnostic and statistical manual of
mental disorders (5th ed.) (Links to an external site.) (Links to
an external
site.). https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.books.9780890425596 (Link
s to an external site.)
Getzfeld, A. R. (2018). Abnormal psychology (2nd ed.).
Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu (Links to an external
site.)
Laparidou, D., Middlemass, J., Karran, T., & Siriwardena, A. N.
(2019). Caregivers’ interactions with health care
services−Mediator of stress or added strain? Experiences and
perceptions of informal caregivers of people with dementia−A
qualitative study. Dementia: The International Journal of Social
Research and Practice, 18(7–8), 2526–2542. https://doi-
org.proxy-
library.ashford.edu/10.1177/1471301217751226 (Links to an
external site.)
Manor-Binyamini, I. (2012). Parenting children with conduct
disorder in Israel: Caregiver burden and the sense of
coherence. Community Mental Health Journal, 48(6), 781–785.
https://doi-org.proxy-library.ashford.edu/10.1007/s10597-011-
9474-x
MY POST:
Dementia and Amnestic disorders are some of the common
disorders which are experienced by different people in different
areas. As far as Dementia is concerned, the disorder is
characterized by the decline in memory, problem solving,
language and skills in thinking. This brings about negative
impacts to the people therefore making it hard for the people to
carry out their daily activities. Some of the symptoms of
dementia include; increased confusion, reduced concentration,
memory problems and behavior changes (Brinker, 2019).
On the other hand, Amnestic disorders are some of the disorders
which involve loss of memories. As a result of Amnestic
disorders, it becomes hard for the people to create new
memories. However, majority of the people experiencing the
disorder face difficulties when recalling different happenings.
Some of the symptoms of Amnestic disorders include; loss of
memory, lack of insights with time and disorientation with time
(Gallagher, 2019).
Both Amnestic disorders and dementia are similar to other
illness in that they lead to loss of memories to different people.
Again, the two disorders are different in that they make it hard
for the people to learn new information. The other illness can
easily be controlled due to the fact that they do not bring a lot
of problems to the people. Moreover, the ethical implications of
the importance of understanding the symptoms of the two
disorders in general is that it ensures the violation of the
people’s rights is reduced therefore ensuring that the people
acquire the right services (Getzfeld, 2018).
Again, the role of environment on managing behaviors to the
disorders is ensuring that the affected people are provided with
right services hence ensuring that they carry out their daily
activities accordingly. Finally, the impact of the family in the
management of a loved one suffering from the disorders is
ensuring that the people are supported both financially and
emotionally (Kambeitz-Ilankovic, 2019).
References
Brinker, M. J., Cohen, J. G., Sharrette, J. A., & Hall, T. A.
(2019). Neurocognitive and neurodevelopmental impact of
prenatal methamphetamine exposure: A comparison study of
prenatally exposed children with nonexposed ADHD
peers. Applied Neuropsychology: Child, 8(2), 132-139.
Gallagher, L., Fitzgerald, J., Al Shehhi, M., Lynch, S. A., &
Shen, S. (2019). DECONSTRUCTING THE NEUREXIN1
DELETION PHENOTYPE: A NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL,
NEUROCOGNITIVE AND NEUROIMAGING
PERSPECTIVE. European Neuropsychopharmacology, 29,
S980-S981.
Getzfeld, A. R. (2018). Abnormal psychology (2nd ed.).
Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu
Kambeitz-Ilankovic, L., Haas, S. S., Meisenzahl, E., Dwyer, D.
B., Weiske, J., Peters, H., ... & Koutsouleris, N. (2019).
Neurocognitive and neuroanatomical maturation in the clinical
high-risk states for psychosis: a pattern recognition
study. NeuroImage: Clinical, 21, 101624.
EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE:
Hello Robert,
I enjoyed reading your valuable information and thoughtful
observations. In youe answer to Ethical Implications I couldn't
agree with you more. With all of these mental disorders,
especially the ones that affect children it is imperative to be
very careful not to put an unnecessary label on a child. I believe
that these labels and diagnosis can become a crutch as they use
them for their identity for the rest of their lives. I know a man
45 years old who was told he had ADHD and a learning
disability as a child. Even though I don't see any sign of these
problems he mentions them as an excuse for normal mistakes
that everyone makes. He defines himself as dumb and unable to
concentrate, which just isn't true and there is no evidence of
that happening. It's sad and I think our society must be very
careful when saddling the young and impressionable with a
label that can haunt them. Young children are constantly trying
to figure out who they are and where they fit into the world and
if some authority figure says they are X they will many times
believe this and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I learned
this somewhere in one of my classes...:) I enjoyed reading your
post.
Respond to at least four of your classmates’ posts
JEREMY’S POST:
Think of an organizational change that you experienced.
Describe how you were impacted by the change.
An example of an organizational change that I experienced was
transitioning from an Aircraft Maintenance Unit to a Fighter
Squadron. I am a production superintendent and I manage all
scheduled and unscheduled repairs, inspection, modification,
and troubleshooting on a fleet of aircraft by directing
specialized repair technicians, equipment, and spare parts
consumption. My job is ultimately to provide safe, reliable
aircraft to meet the flying mission requirements of the aircrew.
Traditionally, aircraft maintenance has been a separate
organization from the aircrew because our two operations are
vast and complex. Recently, the Air Force decided to create an
experimental unit that combines the maintenance personnel with
the aircrew, and created a unique organizational structure to
accommodate the transition.
I was impacted by this change because my organizational
structure became significantly flatter and key decision makers
within the organization were now aircrew rather than
maintenance officers. The aircrew brought a dynamic
operational decision making capability to maintenance that
allowed new processes to emerge and significantly decreased
the time required to implement changes. The drawback to the
new structure was the loss of maintenance management
experience that occurred when maintenance officers were
removed from the organization.
What could the leadership have done to make the transition
more successful? Cite one or more change models to support
your assertion.
One thing the leadership could have done to make the transition
more successful would have been to establish clearer lines of
responsibility and authority for each of the new leadership and
management positions within the new organization’s structure.
Many of the previously established processes no longer worked
due to confusion about who was responsible for what and at
what level decisions were allowed to be made. Senior and
Fleming’s (2006) Capacity for Change model lists the degree to
which organizations are willing to grant people authority and
support them in their actions as key to that organizations
capacity to change (Weiss, 2016). Because my organization did
not effectively grant authority nor support key decision maker’s
actions, our capacity for change was limited.
Reference
Weiss, J. W. (2016). Organizational change (2nd ed.). Retrieved
from https://content.ashford.edu/
NORMA’S POST:
Think of an organizational change that you experienced.
Describe how you were impacted by the change.
An example of an organization changed was when I came of the
Pre-K classroom to become a full-time director. When we
moved into a larger facility and licensed for 63 children. Our
DCFS rep Karen, told the owner that we hire full time director
or Norma comes out of the classroom, and becomes the
director. At the other building we were licensed for 45, with
that I was able to be teacher/ director. With that being said, I
came out of the classroom, because I know how the owner
expectations and not to change the systems in the office. And
she would always tell me I’m a phone call away. She was the
director at the other location. Being a full-time director has
many responsibilities from parents, children and mainly the
staff. And attending director meeting, and learning ISBE
paperwork, learning how to do the billing at the end of the
months. The biggest component is dealing with the Child Care
Resource and Referral with papers work, and making sure that
parents turn everything in. I would call and ask her for help, or
I would call her and let her know when I made a mistake. She
than would assist me on how to fix it and would say that’s an
easy fix.
What could the leadership have done to make the transition
more successful? Cite one or more change models to support
your assertion.
One of the most important things the leaders could have done is
given me that one on one training, instead of me jumping in and
learning it myself. For example, I had the owner as a teacher
giving me guidance on how to become a better teacher, I wish I
could have had that as a director. As stated in the text
sustaining major organizational change- ensuring that planned
changes ensure- does not involve” one- shot” or quick fix
solution embedding change in organizations requires continuous
top-down, bottom-up leadership and process improvement-
including supportive and innovative actions throughout the
enterprise ( /Weiss, 2016).
Reference:
Weiss, J. W. (2016). Organizational change (2nd ed.). Retrieved
from https://content.ashford.edu/
JOHNNY’S POST:
Identify factors that can cause change initiatives to fail and the
five pillars that can cause them to succeed.
While people may have a good reason for change it does not
always succeed. There are many causes that can make change
initiatives fail. As stated by Weiss, 2016, “Just as important, the
people involved in and affected by the change must not be
excluded. Failing to communicate with and involve
professionals and employees who are affected by such changes
often creates opposition and resistance.” (Ch 4.1, Para 3). I
believe this is the main reason change initiatives fail. By not
including all the employees a company runs the risk of losing
support. Other reasons for failure include short-term fix
approach and failure to sustain change.
Opposite of failure is success. According to the text, 2016,
“five principal components that are integral to any successful
company: leadership, strategy, culture, structure, and systems.”
(Ch 4.3, Para 2). If a company has a solid base consisting of
these five pillars than they are more like to have success with
organizational change.
Highlight an organization that failed to adapt and evaluate
which of these factors and pillars were demonstrated by this
organization.
An organization that failed to adapt is Blockbuster. The
company had become very successful before movie streaming
became available. The company was even approached by Netflix
at an early stage to join forces. A huge mistake made by
Blockbuster. If they had better leadership and strategy the
company could of avoided bankruptcy and almost certainly be a
multibillion dollar company.
Reference:
Weiss, J. W. (2016). Organizational change (2nd ed.). Retrieved
from https://content.ashford.edu/
JERMIKAL’S POST:
The company I choose for this week’s discussion is Motorola.
The organizations first major success was with car radios,
progressing to two-way radios that eventually led Motorola to
build and sell the first mobile phone in the world. If I remember
correctly, I want to say my parents first real cell phone was a
Motorola. Back when everyone had flip phones. Motorola
dominated the industry back in 2003, when it introduced the
trendy Razr, the mobile phone with the highest revenue ever.
But they did not concentrate on devices that can manage email
and other details, which caused them to lose ground to
competitors such as Research in Motion, Apple, LG and
Samsung. Motorola was so heavily defeated that its cell phone
business became a chronic money-loser and this year the
company announced intentions to split it off into a separate
company, leaving the Motorola center to concentrate on
networking equipment and a few other sectors. The company
suffered from failure to recognize the need for change. Which at
first glance I think who can blame them, when they started off
so successfully. But then that is why competition exist.
References:
Weiss, J.W. (2016). Organizational Change (2nd ed.). San
Diego, CA: Bridgepoint Education, Inc.
Newman, R. (2010). 10 Great Companies That Lost Their Edge
EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE:
Hello Aziza,
I think Sears is one of many examples of brick and mortar
department stores that struggled to remain relevant in today's
buy anything online market. The whole transition is interesting
to me. I believe that many people will eventually go back to
brick and mortar shopping with certain items because they enjoy
being able to pick up and hold an item before they buy it. For
example, buying clothing online is difficult because people
want to try on the clothing to make sure it fits and looks good
on them before they buy it. Companies like stitch fix are trying
to address this concern by mailing clothing items back and forth
with customers. While innovative, I don't think this business
strategy will overtake the brick and mortar shopping experience
due to convenience and the instant gratification of purchasing
clothing that you know fits.
Euro Disney: Bungling a Successful Concept
With high expectations, Euro Disney opened just outside Paris
in April 1992. Success seemed assured. After all, the
Disneylands in Florida, California, and more recently, Japan,
were all spectacular successes. But somehow all the rosy
expectations became a delusion. The opening results cast even
the future continuance of Euro Disney into doubt. How could
what seemed so right be so wrong? What mistakes were made?
PRELUDE
OPTIMISM
Perhaps a few early omens should have raised caution. Between
1987 and 1991, three $150 million amusement parks had opened
in France with great fanfare. All had fallen flat, and by 1991
two were in bankruptcy. Now the Walt Disney Company was
finalizing its plans to open Europe's first Disneyland early in
1992. This would turn out to be a $4.4 billion enterprise
sprawling over 5,000 acres twenty miles east of Paris. Initially
it would have six hotels and 5,200 rooms, more rooms than the
entire city of Cannes, and lodging was expected to triple in a
few years as Disney opened a second theme park to keep
visitors at the resort longer.
Disney also expected to develop a growing office complex, this
to be only slightly smaller than France's biggest, La Défense, in
Paris. Plans also called for shopping malls, apartments, golf
courses, and vacation homes. Euro Disney would tightly control
all this ancillary development, designing and building nearly
everything itself and eventually selling off the commercial
properties at a huge profit.
Disney executives had no qualms about the huge enterprise,
which would cover an area one-fifth the size of Paris itself.
They were more worried that the park might not be big enough
to handle the crowds: “My biggest fear is that we will be too
successful.”1
Company executives initially predicted that 11 million
Europeans would visit the extravaganza in the first year alone.
After all, Europeans accounted for 2.7 million visits to the US
Disney parks and spent $1.6 billion on Disney merchandise.
Surely a park in closer proximity would draw many thousands
more. As Disney executives thought more about it, the forecast
of 11 million seemed most conservative. They reasoned that
because Disney parks in the United States (population of 250
million) attracted 41 million visitors a year, if Euro Disney
attracted visitors in the same proportion, attendance could reach
60 million with Western Europe's 370 million people. Table
10.1 shows the 1990 attendance at the two US Disney parks and
the newest Japanese Disneyland, as well as the
attendance/population ratios.
Adding fuel to the optimism was the fact that Europeans
typically have more vacation time than US workers. For
example, five-week vacations are commonplace for French and
Germans, compared with two to three weeks for US workers.
The failure of the three earlier French parks was seen as
irrelevant. Robert Fitzpatrick, Euro Disneyland's chairman,
stated that Disney was spending 22 billion French francs to
open the park, compared to the earlier competitors who spent
700 million. “This means we can pay infinitely more attention
to details—costumes, hotels, shops, trash baskets—to create a
fantastic place. There's just too great a response to Disney for
us to fail.”2
Nonetheless, a few scattered signs could be found that not
everyone was happy with the coming of Disney. Leftist
demonstrators at Euro Disney's stock offering greeted company
executives with eggs, ketchup, and “Mickey Go Home” signs.
Some French intellectuals decried the pollution of the country's
cultural ambiance with the coming of Mickey Mouse and
company: They called the park an American cultural
abomination. The mainstream press also seemed contrary,
describing every Disney setback with delight. And French
officials in negotiating with Disney sought less American and
more European culture at France's Magic Kingdom. Still, such
protests and bad press seemed contrived and unrepresentative,
and certainly not predictive. Company officials dismissed the
early criticism as “the ravings of an insignificant elite.”3
TABLE 10.1 Attendance and Attendance/Population Ratios of
Disney Parks, 1990
THE LOCATION DECISION
In the search for a site for Euro Disney, Disney executives
examined 200 locations in Europe. The other finalist was
Barcelona, Spain. Its major attraction was warmer weather. But
the transportation system was not as good as around Paris, and
it also lacked level tracts of land of sufficient size. The clincher
for the decision for Paris was its more central location. Table
10.2 shows the number of people within two to six hours of the
Paris site.
The beet fields of the Marne-la-Vallée area were chosen. Being
near Paris seemed a major advantage, as Paris was Europe's
biggest tourist draw. France was eager to win the project to help
lower its jobless rate and also to enhance its role as the center
of tourist activity in Europe. The French government expected
the project to create at least 30,000 jobs and to contribute $1
billion a year from foreign visitors.
To encourage the project, the French government allowed
Disney to buy up huge tracts of land at 1971 prices. It provided
$750 million in loans at below-market rates and also spent
hundreds of millions of dollars on subway and other capital
improvements for the park. For example, Paris's express subway
was extended out to the park; a 35-minute ride from downtown
cost about $2.50. A new railroad station for the high-speed
Train à Grande Vitesse (TGV) was built only 150 yards from
the entrance gate. This enabled visitors from Brussels to
arrive in only ninety minutes. And when the English Channel
tunnel opened in 1994, even London was only three hours and
ten minutes away. In fact, Euro Disney was the second largest
construction project in Europe, second only to construction of
the English Channel tunnel.
TABLE 10.2 Number of People within 2–6 Hours of the Paris
Site
Within a 2-hour drive:
17 million people
Within a 4-hour drive:
41 million people
Within a 6-hour drive:
109 million people
Within a 2-hour flight:
310 million people
Source: Euro Disney. Amusement Business magazine.
Commentary: The much more densely populated and
geographically compact European continent makes access to
Euro Disney much more convenient than accessing Disney parks
is in the United States.
FINANCING
Euro Disney cost $4.4 billion. Table 10.3 shows the sources of
financing in percentages. The Disney Company had a 49 percent
stake in the project, the most that the French government would
allow. For this stake, it invested $160 million, while other
investors contributed $1.2 billion in equity. The rest was
financed by loans from the government, banks, and special
partnerships formed to buy properties and lease them back.
The payoff for Disney began after the park opened. The
company received 10 percent of Euro Disney's admission fees
and 5 percent of the food and merchandise revenues. This was
the same arrangement as Disney had with the Japanese park. But
in Tokyo Disneyland, the company took no ownership interest,
opting instead only for the licensing fees and a percentage of
the revenues. The reason for the conservative position with
Tokyo Disneyland was that Disney money was heavily
committed to building Epcot Center in Florida. Furthermore,
Disney had some concerns about the Tokyo enterprise. This was
the first non-American Disneyland and also the first cold-
weather one. It seemed prudent to minimize the risks. But this
turned out to be a significant blunder of conservatism: Tokyo
became a huge success, as the following Information Box
discusses in more detail.
TABLE 10.3 Sources of Initial Financing for Euro Disney
(percent)
Total to Finance: $4.4 billion
100%
Shareholders equity, including $160 million from Walt Disney
Co.
32
Loan from French government
22
Loan from group of 45 banks
21
Bank loans to Disney hotels
16
Real estate partnerships
9
Source: Euro Disney.
Commentary: The full flavor of the leverage is shown here, with
equity comprising only 32 percent of the total expenditure.
SPECIAL MODIFICATIONS
With the experiences of the previous theme parks, particularly
that of the first cold-weather park in Tokyo, Disney
construction executives were able to bring state-of-the-art
refinements to Euro Disney. Exacting demands were placed on
French construction companies, and a higher level of
performance and compliance resulted than many thought
possible. The result was a major project on time if not
completely on budget. In contrast, the Channel tunnel was
plagued by delays and severe cost overruns.
INFORMATION BOX
THE TOKYO DISNEYLAND SUCCESS
Tokyo Disneyland opened in 1983 on 201 acres in the eastern
suburb of Urazasu. It was arranged that an ownership group,
Oriental Land, would build, own, and operate the theme park,
with advice from Disney. The owners borrowed most of the
$650 million needed to bring the project to fruition. Disney
invested no money, but received 10 percent of the revenues
from admission and rides and 5 percent of sales of food, drink,
and souvenirs.
While the start was slow, the Japanese soon began flocking to
the park in great numbers. By 1990, some 16 million a year
passed through the turnstiles, about one-fourth more than
visited Disneyland in California. In fiscal year 1990, revenues
reached $988 million with profits of $150 million. Indicative of
the Japanese preoccupation with all things American, the park
served almost no Japanese food, and the live entertainers were
mostly American. Japanese management even apologized for the
presence of a single Japanese restaurant inside the park: “A lot
of elderly Japanese came here from outlying parts of Japan, and
they were not very familiar with hot dogs and hamburgers.”4
Disney executives were soon to realize the great mistake they
made in not taking substantial ownership in Tokyo Disneyland.
They did not want to make the same mistake with Euro Disney.
Would you expect the acceptance of the genuine American
experience in Tokyo to be indicative of the reaction of the
French and Europeans? Why or why not?
4 James Sterngold, “Cinderella Hits Her Stride in Tokyo,” New
York Times, February 17, 1991, p. 6.
One of the things learned from the cold-weather project in
Japan was that more needed to be done to protect visitors from
such weather problems as wind, rain, and cold. Consequently,
Euro Disney's ticket booths were protected from the elements,
as were the lines waiting for attractions and even the moving
sidewalk from the 12,000-car parking area.
Certain French accents—British, German, and Italian accents as
well—were added to the American flavor. The park had two
official languages, English and French, but multilingual guides
were available for Dutch, Spanish, German, and Italian visitors.
Discoveryland, based on the science fiction of France's Jules
Verne, was a new attraction. A theater with a full 360-degree
screen acquainted visitors with a sweep of European history.
And, not the least modification for cultural diversity, Snow
White spoke German, and the Belle Notte Pizzeria and
Pasticceria were right next to Pinocchio.
Disney foresaw that it might encounter some cultural problems.
This was one of the reasons for choosing Robert Fitzpatrick as
Euro Disney's president. While American, he spoke French and
had a French wife. However, he was not able to establish the
rapport needed and was replaced in 1993 by a French native.
Still, some of his admonitions that France should not be
approached as if it were Florida fell on deaf ears.
RESULTS
As the April 1992 opening approached, the company launched a
massive communications blitz aimed at publicizing the fact that
the fabled Disney experience was now accessible to all
Europeans. Some 2,500 people from various print and broadcast
media were lavishly entertained while being introduced to the
new facilities. Most media people were positively impressed
with the inauguration and with the enthusiastic spirit of the
staffers. These public relations efforts, however, were criticized
by some for being heavy-handed and for not providing access to
Disney executives.
As 1992 wound down after the opening, it became clear that
revenue projections were, unbelievably, not being met. But the
opening turned out to be in the middle of a severe recession in
Europe. European visitors, perhaps as a consequence, were far
more frugal than their American counterparts. Many packed
their own lunches and shunned the Disney hotels. A visitor
named Corine from southern France typified the “no-spend”
attitude of many: “It's a bottomless pit,” she said as she, her
husband, and their three children toured Euro Disney on a three-
day visit. “Every time we turn around, one of the kids wants to
buy something.”5 Perhaps investor expectations, despite the
logic and rationale, were simply unrealistic.
Indeed, Disney had initially priced the park and the hotels to
meet revenue targets and assumed demand was there at any
price. Park admission was $42.25 for adults—higher than at the
American parks. A room at the flagship Disneyland Hotel at the
park's entrance cost about $340 a night, the equivalent of a top
hotel in Paris. It was soon averaging only a 50 percent
occupancy. Guests were not staying as long or spending as
much on the fairly high-priced food and merchandise. We can
label the initial pricing strategy at Euro Disney as skimming
pricing. The following Information Box discusses skimming and
its opposite, penetration pricing.
Disney executives soon realized they had made a major
miscalculation. While visitors to Florida's Disney World often
stayed more than four days, Euro Disney—with one theme park
compared to Florida's three—was proving to be a two-day
experience at best. Many visitors arrived early in the morning,
rushed to the park, staying late at night, then checked out of the
hotel the next morning before heading back to the park for one
final exploration.
The problems of Euro Disney were not public acceptance
(despite the earlier critics). Europeans loved the place. Since
the opening, it attracted just under 1 million visitors a month,
thus easily achieving the original projections. Such patronage
made it Europe's biggest paid tourist attraction. But large
numbers of frugal patrons did not come close to enabling
Disney to meet revenue and profit projections and cover a
bloated overhead.
INFORMATION BOX
SKIMMING AND PENETRATION PRICING
A firm with a new product or service may be in a temporary
monopolistic situation. If there is little or no present and
potential competition, more discretion in pricing is possible. In
such a situation (and, of course, Euro Disney was in this
situation), one of two basic and opposite approaches may be
taken in the pricing strategy: (1) skimming or (2) penetration.
Skimming is a relatively high-price strategy. It is the most
tempting where the product or service is highly differentiated,
as it yields high per-unit profits. It is compatible with a quality
image. But it has limitations. It assumes a rather inelastic
demand curve, in which sales will not be appreciably affected
by price. And if the product or service is easily imitated (which
was hardly the case with Euro Disney), then competitors are
encouraged because of the high profit margins.
The penetration strategy of low prices assumes an elastic
demand curve, with sales increasing substantially if prices can
be lowered. It is compatible with economies of scale, and
discourages competitive entry. The classic example of
penetration pricing was the Model T Ford. Henry Ford lowered
his prices to put the car within the means of the general public,
expanded production into the millions, and in so doing realized
new horizons of economies of scale.
Euro Disney correctly saw itself in a monopoly position; it
correctly judged that it had a relatively inelastic demand curve
with customers flocking to the park regardless of rather high
prices. What it did not reckon with was the shrewdness of
European visitors: Because of the high prices, they shortened
their stays, avoided the hotels, brought their own food and
drink, and only sparingly bought the Disney merchandise.
What advantages would a lower price penetration strategy have
offered Euro Disney? Do you see any drawbacks?
Other operational errors and miscalculations, most of these
cultural, hurt the enterprise. A policy of serving no alcohol in
the park caused consternation in a country where wine is
customary at lunch and dinner. (This policy was soon reversed.)
Disney thought Monday would be a light day and Friday a
heavy one, and allocated staff accordingly, but the reverse was
true. It found great peaks and valleys in attendance: The number
of visitors per day in the high season could be ten times the
number in slack times. The need to lay off employees during
quiet periods ran up against France's inflexible labor schedules.
One unpleasant surprise concerned breakfast. Disney executives
were led to believe that Europeans did not eat breakfast;
however, it turned out they wanted breakfast at Euro Disney.
The lines became unmanageable as Disney tried to serve 2,500
breakfasts in restaurants that seated 350 people.6
Disney failed to anticipate another demand, this time from tour
bus drivers. Restrooms were built for fifty drivers, but on peak
days 2,000 drivers were seeking the facilities. “From impatient
drivers to grumbling bankers, Disney stepped on toe after
European toe.”7
For the fiscal year ending September 30, 1993, the amusement
park had lost $960 million in US dollars, and the future of the
park was in doubt. (As of December 31, 1993, the cumulative
loss was 6.04 billion francs, or $1.03 billion.) The Walt Disney
corporation made $175 million available to tide Euro Disney
over until the next spring. Adding to the problems of the
struggling park were heavy interest costs. As depicted in Table
10.3 above, against a total cost of $4.4 billion, only 32 percent
of the project was financed by equity investment. Some $2.9
billion was borrowed primarily from 60 creditor banks, at
interest rates running as high as 11 percent. Thus, the enterprise
began heavily leveraged, and the hefty interest charges greatly
increased the overhead to be covered from operations. Serious
negotiations began with the banks to restructure and refinance.
ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER
The $960 million lost in the first fiscal year represented a
shortfall of more than $2.5 million a day. The situation was not
quite as dire as these statistics would seem to indicate.
Actually, the park was generating an operating profit. But
nonoperating costs were bringing it deeply into the red.
While operations were far from satisfactory, they were
becoming better. It had taken twenty months to smooth out the
wrinkles and adjust to the miscalculations about hotel demand
and the willingness of Europeans to pay substantial prices for
lodging, meals, and merchandise. Operational efficiencies were
slowly improving.
By the beginning of 1994, Euro Disney had been made more
affordable. Prices of some hotel rooms were cut—for example,
at the low end, from $76 per night to $51. Expensive jewelry
was replaced by $10 T-shirts and $5 crayon sets. Luxury sit-
down restaurants were converted to self-service. Off-season
admission prices were reduced from $38 to $30. And operating
costs were reduced 7 percent by streamlining operations and
eliminating over 900 jobs.
Efficiency and economy became the new watchwords.
Merchandise in stores was pared from 30,000 items to 17,000,
with more of the remaining goods being pure US Disney
products. (The company had thought that European tastes might
prefer more subtle items than the garish Mickey and Minnie
souvenirs, but this proved untrue.) The number of different food
items offered by park services was reduced more than 50
percent. New training programs were designed to remotivate the
9,000 full-time permanent employees, to make them more
responsive to customers and more flexible in their job
assignments. Employees in contact with the public were given
crash courses in German and Spanish.
Still, as we have seen, the problem had not been attendance,
although the recession and the high prices had reduced it. Some
18 million people passed through the turnstiles in the first
twenty months of operation. But they were not spending money
as people did in the US parks. Furthermore, Disney had
alienated some European tour operators with its high prices, and
it diligently sought to win them back.
Management had hoped to reduce the heavy interest overhead by
selling the hotels to private investors. But the hotels had an
occupancy rate of only 55 percent, making them unattractive to
investors. While the recession was a factor in such low
occupancy rates, most of the problem lay in the calculation of
lodging demands. With the park just thirty-five minutes from
the center of Paris, many visitors stayed in town. About the
same time as the opening, the real estate market in France
collapsed, making the hotels unsalable in the short term. This
added to the overhead burden and confounded business plan
forecasts.
While some analysts were relegating Euro Disney to the
cemetery, few remembered that Orlando's Disney World showed
early symptoms of being a disappointment. Costs were heavier
than expected, and attendance was below expectations. But
Orlando's Disney World turned out to be one of the most
profitable resorts in North America.
A FAVORABLE PROGNOSIS
Euro Disney had many things going for it, despite the disastrous
early results. In May 1994, a station on the high-speed rail
running from southern to northern France opened within
walking distance of Euro Disney. This helped fill many of the
hotel rooms too ambitiously built. Summer 1994, the 50th
anniversary of the Normandy invasion, brought many people to
France. Another favorable sign for Euro Disney was the English
Channel tunnel's opening in 1994, which could potentially bring
a flood of British tourists. Furthermore, the recession in Europe
was bound to end, and with it should come renewed interest in
travel. As real estate prices became more favorable, hotels
could be sold and real estate development around the park
spurred.
Even as Disney Chairman Michael Eisner threatened to close
the park unless lenders restructured the debt, Disney increased
its French presence, opening a Disney store on the Champs
Elysees. The likelihood of a Disney pullout seemed remote,
despite the posturing of Eisner, as royalty fees could be a
sizable source of revenues even if the park only broke even
after servicing its debt. With only a 3.5 percent increase in
revenues in 1995 and a 5 percent increase in 1996, these could
yield $46 million in royalties for the parent company. “You
can't ask, ‘What does Euro Disney mean in 1995?’ You have to
ask, ‘What does it mean in 1998?’”8
SUMMARY OF MAJOR MISTAKES
Euro Disney, as we have seen, fell far short of expectations in
the first twenty months of its operation, so much so that its
continued existence was even questioned. What went wrong?
EXTERNAL FACTORS
A serious economic recession that affected all of Europe
undoubtedly was a major impediment to meeting expectations.
As noted before, it adversely affected attendance—although still
not all that much—but drastically affected spending patterns,
with frugality being the order of the day for many visitors. The
recession also affected real estate demand and prices, thus
saddling Disney with hotels it had hoped to sell profitably to
eager investors, and thereby take the strain off its hefty interest
payments.
The company assumed that European visitors would not be
greatly different from those visitors, foreign and domestic, of
US Disney parks. Yet, at least in the first few years of
operation, visitors were much more price conscious. This
suggested that those within a two- to four-hour drive of Euro
Disney were considerably different from the ones who traveled
overseas, at least in spending ability and willingness.
INTERNAL FACTORS
Despite the decades of experience with the US Disney parks and
the successful experience with the newer Japan park, Disney
still made serious blunders in its operational planning, such as
the demand for breakfasts, the insistence on wine at meals, the
severe peaks and valleys in scheduling, and even such mundane
things as sufficient restrooms for tour bus drivers. It had
problems in motivating and training its French employees in
efficiency and customer orientation. Did all these mistakes
reflect an intractable French mindset or a deficiency of Disney
management? Perhaps both. But should not Disney management
have researched all cultural differences more thoroughly?
Further, the park needed major streamlining of inventories and
operations after the opening. The mistakes suggested an
arrogant mindset by Disney management: “We were arrogant,”
concedes one executive. “It was like, ‘We're building the Taj
Mahal and people will come—on our terms.’”9
The miscalculations in hotel rooms and in pricing of many
products, including food services, showed an insensitivity to the
harsh economic conditions. But the greatest mistake was taking
on too much debt for the park. The highly leveraged situation
burdened Euro Disney with such hefty interest payments and
overhead that the break-even point was impossibly high, and
even threatened the viability of the enterprise. See the following
Information Box for a discussion of the important inputs and
implications affecting the break-even point, and how these
should play a role in strategic planning.
INFORMATION BOX
THE BREAK-EVEN POINT
A break-even analysis is a vital tool in making go/no go
decisions about new ventures and alternative business
strategies. This can be shown graphically as follows: Below the
break-even point, the venture suffers losses; above it, the
venture becomes profitable.
Let us make a hypothetical comparison of Euro Disney, with its
$1.6 billion in high-interest loans (some of these as high as 11
percent) from the banks, and what the situation might be with
more equity and less borrowed funds.
For this example, let us assume that other fixed costs are $240
million, that the average interest rate on the debt is 10 percent,
and that average profit margin (contribution to overhead) from
each visitor is $32. Now let us consider two scenarios: (a) $1.6
billion of debt, and (b) only $0.5 billion of debt.
The number of visitors needed to breakeven is determined as
follows:
Because Euro Disney expected 11,000,000 visitors the first
year, it obviously was not going to break even while servicing
$1.6 billion in debt with $160 million in interest charges per
year. The average visitor would have to be induced to spend
more, thereby increasing the average profit or contribution to
overhead.
In making go/no go decisions, many costs can be estimated
quite closely. What cannot be determined as surely are the sales
figures. Certain things can be done to affect the break-even
point. Obviously it can be lowered if the overhead is reduced, as
we saw in scenario (b). Higher prices also result in a lower
break-even point because of greater per customer profits (but
would probably affect total sales quite adversely). Promotion
expenses can be either increased or decreased and affect the
break-even point; but they probably also have an impact on
sales. Some costs of operation can be reduced, thus lowering the
break-even point. But the hefty interest charges act as a
lodestone over an enterprise, greatly increasing the overhead
and requiring what may be an unattainable break-even point.
Does a new venture have to break even or make a profit the first
year to be worth going into? Why or why not?
Were such mistakes and miscalculations beyond what we would
expect of reasonable executives? Probably not, with the possible
exception of the crushing burden of debt. Any new venture is
susceptible to surprises and the need to streamline and weed out
its inefficiencies. While we would have expected such to have
been done faster and more effectively from a well-tried Disney
operation, European, and particularly French and Parisian,
consumers and employees showed different behavioral and
attitudinal patterns than expected.
The worst sin that Disney management and investors could
make would be to give up on Euro Disney and not to look ahead
a few years. A hint of the future promise was Christmas week of
1993. Despite the first year's $920 million in red ink, some
35,000 packed the park most days. A week later on a cold
January day, some of the rides still had 40-minute waits.
POSTSCRIPT
The problems of Euro Disney were still not resolved by mid-
1994. The theme park and resort near Paris remained troubled.
On March 15, 1994, an agreement was struck, aimed at making
Euro Disney profitable by September 30, 1995. The European
banks would fund another $500 million and make concessions
such as forgiving eighteen months interest and deferring all
principal payments for three years. In return, Walt Disney
Company agreed to spend about $750 million to bail out its
Euro Disney affiliate. Disney also agreed to eliminate for five
years the lucrative management fees and royalties it received on
the sale of tickets and merchandise.10 In addition, a new source
for financing had emerged. A member of the Saudi Arabian
royal family agreed to invest up to $500 million for a 24 percent
stake in Euro Disney. Prince Alwaleed had shown considerable
sophistication in investing in troubled enterprises in the past.
Now his commitment to Euro Disney showed a belief in the
ultimate success of the resort.11
Finally, in the third quarter of 1995, Euro Disney posted its first
profit, some $35 million for the period. This compared with a
year earlier loss of $113 million. By now, Euro Disney was only
39 percent owned by Disney. It attributed the turnaround partly
to a new marketing strategy in which prices were slashed both
at the gate and within the theme park in an effort to boost
attendance, and also to shed the nagging image of being
overpriced. It also officially changed its name to Disneyland
Paris to more closely identify the park “with one of the most
romantic and exciting cities in the world” and dissociate itself
from the business-like connotation of the word “Euro.”12
To the delight of the French government, Disney opened a
movie theme park next to Magic Kingdom, Walt Disney Studios
in March 2002. It blended Disney entertainment with the history
and culture of European film. Marketing efforts reflected a
newfound cultural awareness, and efforts were focused largely
on selling the new park through travel agents, whom Disney
initially neglected in promoting Disneyland Paris. The timing
could have been better, though, as tourism took a downturn
following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.13
By the end of 2004, Disneyland Paris was again facing record
losses, partly because of the resumption of full royalty
payments and management fees due to Walt Disney Co. But
deeper problems beset the venture. Attendance remained flat at
about 12.4 million. The new Disney Studios Park opened to
expectations of 4 million visitors, but only 2.2 million came in
2004, and many complained that it did not have enough
attractions.14 Disneyland Paris opened several new attractions
between 2007 and 2010, but with the exception of 2008,
continued to face losses. In 2009 and 2010, Disneyland Paris
again deferred interest payments to its largest lender as well as
royalty fees to the Walt Disney Company.
RECENT UPDATE
Disneyland Paris continued to face a tumultuous situation. For
example, on December 23, 2009, one of the busiest days for the
resort, its staff went on strike, disrupting its daily parades to the
boos and hisses of a huge crowd of holiday visitors. The entire
episode was caught on several guests' cell phones and posted to
YouTube.15 In 2010, two workers, a chef and a cook,
committed suicide. The company denied the suicides had to do
with work, but family members and a trade union insisted the
suicides were work related. The chef wrote on a suicide note
that he did “not want to return to working for Mickey.”16 CEO
Philippe Gas said that Disneyland Paris saw “certain
fundamental changes in consumer behavior” as tourists booked
at the last minute, sought out promotional incentives, and stayed
close to home.17 The attendance figures and financial results
for 2006 through 2011 shown in Table 10.4 indicate that the
situation was not improving significantly.
There is a lot at stake for Disney in the success of Disneyland
Paris. Failure would hurt its global brand image as it is
expanding into China and elsewhere in the Far East. Perhaps the
lessons learned in Paris of trying to keep visitors longer while
saving on fixed costs will transfer. The Information Box on
Hong Kong Disneyland suggests that some lessons learned in
Europe and the early years in Hong Kong might finally be
assimilating. Or are they?
TABLE 10.4: Disneyland Paris 2006–2011 Attendance Figures
and Financial Results
INFORMATION BOX
HONG KONG DISNEYLAND
When Hong Kong Disneyland opened in 2005, it struggled to
connect with consumers. It missed its attendance target of 5.6
million visitors in its first year, and attendance dropped nearly
30 percent in the second year to only four million. The travel
industry was quick to criticize that the park was too small and
not appealing to mainland Chinese audiences. To better
understand the China market, in the summer of 2007 Disney
executives surveyed consumers in their homes and found that
the park needed to be more Chinese; they also learned that the
heritage of Disney stories was not known to most Chinese.
Fortuitously, 2008 was the year of the rat, and they hoped to
transform this into the “Year of the Mouse” with their rodents,
Mickey and Minnie, dressed in special red Chinese outfits.
Parades down Main Street featured a dragon dance and puppets
of birds, flowers, and fish, set to traditional Chinese music.
Mickey and Minnie were joined by the god of wealth, and also
gods of longevity and happiness.
Even with the research and fine tuning, some missteps still
occurred. A Disney ad in 2006 featured a family consisting of
two kids and two parents. China's government, however, limits
most couples to just one child. So the commercial had to be
reset to show one child, two parents, and two grandparents.
During the year of the mouse campaign, Disney hoped that
“kids and families are discovering Disney stories together.”18
Design a marketing strategy for the theme park to better appeal
to Chinese consumers.
18 Geoffrey A. Fowler, “Main Street, H.K.,” Wall Street
Journal, January 23, 2008, pp. B1, B2.
Invitation for Your Analysis and Conclusions
How do you account for Disney management erring so badly,
both at the beginning and even for years afterwards? Any
suggestions?
WHAT WE CAN LEARN
Beware the Arrogant Mindset, Especially When Dealing with
New Situations and New Cultures
French sensitivities were offended by Disney corporate
executives who often turned out to be brash, insensitive, and
overbearing. A contentious attitude by Disney personnel
alienated people and aggravated planning and operational
difficulties.
Such a mindset is a natural concomitant of success. It is said
that success breeds arrogance, but this inclination must be
fought against by those who would spurn the ideas and concerns
of others. For a proud and touchy people, the French, this
almost contemptuous attitude by the Americans fueled
resentment and glee at Disney miscues. It did not foster
cooperation, understanding, or the willingness to smooth the
process. One might almost speculate that, had not the potential
economic benefits to France been so great, the Euro Disney
project might never have been approved.
Great Success May Be Ephemeral
We often find that great successes are not lasting, that they have
no staying power. Somehow the success pattern gets lost or
forgotten or is not well rounded. Other times an operation grows
beyond the capability of the originators. Hungry competitors are
always in the wings, ready to take advantage of any lapse. As
we saw with Euro Disney, having a closed mind to new ideas or
needed revisions of an old success pattern—the arrogance of
success—makes expansion into different environments more
difficult and even risky.
While corporate Disney has continued to have good success
with its other theme parks, competitors are moving in with their
own theme parks in the United States and elsewhere. We may
question whether this industry is approaching saturation, and we
may wonder whether Disney has learned from its mistakes in
Europe.
Highly Leveraged Situations Are Extremely Vulnerable
During most of the 1980s, many managers, including corporate
raiders, pursued a strategy of debt financing (leveraging) in
contrast to equity financing (stock ownership). Funds for such
borrowing were usually readily available, heavy debt had
income tax advantages, and profits could be distributed among
fewer shares so that return on equity was enhanced. During this
time a few voices decried the over-leveraged situations of many
companies. They predicted that when the eventual economic
downturn came, such firms would find themselves unable to
meet the heavy interest burden. Most lenders paid little heed to
such lonesome voices and encouraged greater borrowing.
The widely publicized problems of some of the raiders in the
late 1980s, such as Robert Campeau, who acquired major
department store corporations only to find himself overextended
and lose everything, suddenly changed some expansionist
lending sentiments. The harsh reality dawned that these
arrangements were often fragile indeed, especially when they
rested on optimistic projections for asset sales, for revenues,
and for cost savings to cover the interest payments. An
economic slowdown hastened the demise of some of these ill-
advised speculations. The subprime mortgage bubble of 2007
and 2008 was arguably the supreme example of wild exuberance
crashing down to bring the whole economy into a recession.
Disney was guilty of speculative excesses with Euro Disney,
relying far too much on borrowed funds and assuming that
assets, such as hotels, could be easily sold off at higher prices
to other investors. As we saw in the break-even box above,
hefty interest charges from such over-leveraged conditions can
jeopardize the viability of the enterprise if revenue and profit
projections fail to meet the rosy expectations.
Be Judicious with the Skimming Price Strategy
Euro Disney faced the classical situation favorable for a
skimming price strategy. It was in a monopoly position, with no
equivalent competitors likely. It faced a somewhat inelastic
demand curve, which indicated that people would come almost
regardless of price. So why not price to maximize per-unit
profits? Unfortunately for Disney, the wily Europeans
circumvented the high prices by frugality. Of course, a severe
recession exacerbated the situation.
The learning insight from this example is that a skimming price
assumes that customers are willing and able to pay the higher
prices and have no lower-priced competitive alternatives. It is a
faulty strategy when many customers are unable, or unwilling,
to pay the high prices and can find a way to experience the
product or service in a modest way.
CONSIDER
Can you think of other learning insights from this case?
TEAM DEBATE EXERCISE
It is two years after the opening and Euro Disney is a
monumental mistake, profit-wise. Two schools of thought are
emerging for improving the situation. One is to pour more
money into the project, build one or two more theme parks, and
really make this another Disney World. The other camp believes
more investment would be wasted at this time, that the need is
to pare expenses to the bone and wait for an eventual upturn.
Debate the two positions

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QUESTIONS1. How could the company have erred so badly in its est.docx

  • 1. QUESTIONS 1. How could the company have erred so badly in its estimates of spending patterns of European customers? 2. Could a better reading of the effect of cultural differences on revenues have been achieved? 3. What suggestions do you have for fostering a climate of sensitivity and goodwill in corporate dealings with the French? 4. How do you account for the great success of Tokyo Disneyland and the problems of Euro Disney? What are the key contributory differences? 5. Do you believe that Euro Disney might have done better if it were located elsewhere in Europe rather than just outside Paris? Why or why not? 6. “Mickey Mouse and the Disney Park are an American cultural abomination.” Evaluate this critical statement. 7. Consider how a strong marketing approach might be made to both European consumers and middlemen, such as travel agents, tour guides, even bus drivers. 8. Discuss the desirability of raising admission prices at the very time when attendance is static, profits are nonexistent, and new attractions are months and several years in the future. QUESTIONS 1. As the staff assistant to the president of Euro Disney, you already believe before the grand opening that the plans to use a skimming pricing strategy and to emphasize luxury hotel accommodations are ill advised. What arguments would you marshal to try to persuade the company to offer lower prices and more moderate accommodations? Be as persuasive as you can. 2. It is six months after the opening. Revenues are not meeting target, and a number of problems have surfaced and are being worked on. The major problem remains, however, that the venture needs more visitors or higher expenditures per visitor. Develop a business model to improve the situation.
  • 2. 3. How would you rid an organization, such as Euro Disney, of an arrogant mindset? Assume that you are an operational VP and have substantial resources, but not necessarily the eager support of top management. TEAM DEBATE ->Under the topic "Team Debate Exercise" , you will find information about two camps adopting two opposing positions. Pick a position and discuss why that is the right approach for improving the situation. -> If you were to be appointed as the Chief Marketing Officer of Euro Disney, what would be your actions to make Euro Disney a more attractive place for the customers? Explain in detail. RESPOND TO FOUR STUDENTS ROSIE’S POST: “Positivist Approaches (Positivism) argues that the world exists independently of people perception of it and that science uses objective techniques to discover what exists in the world” (Monette, Sullivan, & DeJong, 2017) From a positivist approach, the healthcare systems in United States and the Canadian Healthcare systems are different when providing healthcare. “Another important difference between positivists and interpretivists has to do with the role of science: Positivists argue that scientists merely discover what exists in the world, but some interpretivists claim that scientist actually help create social reality through their scientific work.” (Knorr, 1981) To exhibit this approach, by evaluating both healthcare systems and revealing the differences between the two. The United States is viewed as having weaker healthcare system when providing healthcare to their citizens when the Canadian Healthcare has a universal healthcare plan that covers all. The government (Obamacare) in the United States provide
  • 3. healthcare for those who are poor and can’t afford healthcare for themselves and if a person can afford and can pay the premiums to pay for healthcare they have to buy healthcare through a private sector. The United States healthcare system put limits on which doctor you can visit and what doctor that may accept your insurance coverage plan. With the Canadian Healthcare system, they have a national healthcare system (NHI) that covers everyone which is universal and provides equal medical care to all. The taxes provides the healthcare for everyone and they do not have to pay a premium with unlimited access to any physician of their choice. The major difference between the two is the cost. American’s spent more than a Canadian in healthcare in which the US has no control over the cost and Canada can control the cost. Knorr, K. (1981). The Manufacture of Knowledge: An Essay on the Constructivist and Contextual Nature of Science. Oxford: Pe rgamon Press. Monette, D., Sullivan, T. & DeJong, C. (2017). Applied social research (9th ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu CAMI’S POST: Looking at the two approaches I would have to say that I would choose the positivist approach because those that adopt this stance often use specific methodologies like quantitative research (Monette, Sullivan and DeJong, 2017). Quantitative research uses more of a survey type of research and bases the result on the numbers they get from the information they derive from the surveys. Using this would be a good way to find out a comparison of the programs, how many people are benefitting from the use of the two programs and then that information could be broken down into a variety of figures and evidence- based charts showing which program offers the most benefits. Positivists approach also sometimes uses a qualitative research formula that would use field observations and descriptions when needed (Monette et al, 2017). I think using both types of research for this approach would open the ability to inspect both
  • 4. programs using a wide array of data formats. Reference Monette, D., Sullivan, T., & DeJong, C. (2017). Applied social research (9th ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu SHAWNTOBIA’S POST: Scientific research relies on the application of methods such as the scientific method. The scientific method can be used to gain knowledge and solve problems while the research format is used to expand on what is discovered. According to Erol (2017) the scientific method should be neutral, objective, rational, and as a result, should be able to approve or disapprove the hypothesis. The research plan should include the procedure to obtain data and evaluate the variables. The importance of emphasizing the scientific method as a way to develop scientific research in order to achieve the objectives set is understood, increasing the rigor of research to give visibility to information that enables professional practices to be conscientious and within criteria that contribute to decision making on care based on validated scientific information (de Araújo Moraes, 2019). The research format analyzes the data collected from scientific research in a standard format that is technical, but general in language so that it can be communicated and understood by others. This format poses the research question, hypotheses, methods, analysis, and conclusions that resulted from methods such as the scientific method. These concepts both produce data from scientific research that can for example, deliver answers to questions, help one make decisions or recommend improvements to meet the needs of a population. References de Araújo Moraes, S. D. T. (2019). Scientific method and research in health: orientation for professional practice. Revista Brasileira de Crescimento e Desenvolvimento Humano, 29(1), 5–9. https://doi-org.proxy-
  • 5. library.ashford.edu/10.7322/jhgd.157742 (Links to an external site.) Erol, A. (2017). How to Conduct Scientific Research? Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5491675/ JANICE’S POST: Winston Churchill, the prime minister of Britain during World War II, is reported to have said that democracy is an imperfect form of government, but that it is far superior to all other forms. Many scientists have similar views, they realize it is imperfect and limited, but they also recognize that it is far superior to other sources of knowledge for gaining an understanding of the world. Science is emperical, systemic, search for causes, provisional, and it strives for objectivity. The scientific method is viewed by scientists as preferable to other ways of gaining knowledge, because it is more likely to lead to an accurate knowledge of the world. The research format analyzes the data that's collected. It sometimes focuses on behavior that is unique or bizarre (Bourgors, Lettiere, & Quesada, 1997; Miller & Tewksbury, 2001; Polsky, 1967; Weinberg, 1968). The research method includes the hypothesis, the research question, and conclusions. Each of these venues is related in a way that they both have answers to questions, which gives you knowledge of the world around you. References Monette, D., Sullivan, T. & DeJong, C. (2017). Applied social research (9th ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu (Links to an external site.) The Office of Research Integrity (n.d.). Basic research concepts. Retrieved from http://ori.hhs.gov/education/products/sdsu/index.html (Links to an external site.) EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE:
  • 6. Hi Markayla, You gave good descriptions of the scientific method and research format. As you stated, the scientific method has been guiding research for a long time. An important characteristic of the scientific method is that it provides a means of checking the accuracy or validity of assertions against factual evidence. These aspects are examples of why I believe it is the preferred method in research (Nagel, 1961 & Cohen and Nagel, 1934). Thoughts? Reference Ernest Nagel, The Structure of Science (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1961), pp,4 and 9; and Morris R, Cohen and Ernest Nagel, An Introduction to Logic and Scientific Method (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1934), p,192. Respond to two peers Guided Peer Responses: Peer responses should be carefully crafted and insightful. The goal of the discussion forum is to foster continual dialogue, similar to what might occur in a verbal face-to-face exchange. Consider discussing areas of interest as well as the following questions in your responses: · Discuss the disorders you shared with your peers. · Find common symptoms between your peers’ chosen disorders and yours. · Discuss any additional treatments that you may be aware of that your peer may not have included. STACEY’S POST: The first condition I have chosen is Tourette’s disorder. Tourette’s is considered a biological disorder of the brain. The symptoms for this disorder consist of simple and complex tics that range from swearing, blinking, shoulder and neck jerking, arms flinging, and other strange movements (Gertzfeld, 2018). Sometimes the tics can be a bit more destructive such as head banging and people with Tourette’s may also bark and shout
  • 7. obscenities at others (Gertzfeld, 2018). Stereotype movement disorder and Tourette’s disorder have some of the same symptoms, such as head banging, waving limbs, and purposeless motor behavior (American Psychiatric Association, 2014). Both conditions have repetitive behavior types. The signs in each disorder can occur many times during the day and can last for short periods (Gertzfeld, 2018). Genetic disorders of the nervous system have been shown to cause movement disorders. To diagnose a mental illness, one must understand the symptoms so they can make the right determination of the diagnosis. A licensed clinician should get to know the patient and all of their symptoms so they can diagnosis the person correctly. Throughout history, many people have been misdiagnosed for mental health issues because it can be challenging to get the diagnosis correct. Ethical procedures should be followed to keep things legal and on the right path. The environment can have an effect on Tourette’s disorder. When someone observes a person making a gesture or a sound, a person with a tic disorder may mimic the actions and others may think it was done on purpose (American Psychiatric Association, 2014). This can lead to issues when a person with Tourette’s is interacting with others (American Psychiatric Association, 2014). The environment may also influence the development of the brain which can put a person at risk for the disorder. Internal and external factors such as the environment can affect tics (Frank, & Cavanna, 2013). Family is always a good dynamic to have around when managing an illness. The more the family is educated on ways to treat the disease, the better off the patient will be. Having support from your loved ones can make the experiences go smoother and I think it makes people feel better when they know there is someone there to support them in their time of need. Although caring for people with the illness can be challenging, but if you come together as a family, it can make it
  • 8. easier. The second condition I have chosen is conduct disorder. Conduct disorder is a type of antisocial behavior that displays in children and young adults (Gertzfeld, 2018). The symptoms consist of violent acts of rage, such as destructive and deceitful behavior, bullying, and just a pattern of violating the rules in general. As a child grows up, they must learn the difference between hostility that can harm others and decisiveness which is necessary to interact appropriately in society (Gertzfeld, 2018). Conduct disorder and antisocial personality disorder have some of the same characteristics. One of the differences between the two is age. The diagnosis for adults over the age of 18 who display aggressive symptoms is an antisocial personality disorder and if you are under the age of 18 conduct disorder is the diagnosis (Gertzfeld, 2018). Both disorders violate the rules and do not adhere to the social norms because people who suffer from these illnesses thrive on being deceitful, reckless, and impulsive (Gertzfeld, 2018). Conduct disorder is more prominent in boys in community settings that have high crime areas and gang relations (Gertzfeld, 2018). This type of behavior does not mean the person has a psychological condition; it just may be the only life they have known (Gertzfeld, 2018). Licensed clinicians must get to know a patient’s history and understand their symptoms so they can make the right determination of the diagnosis. Being misdiagnosed is always an issue regarding mental illness because it can be challenging to determine which one is accurate. The more information the doctor has, the better chance they will have of diagnosing the person correctly. Ethical procedures should be followed to keep things legal and make sure the patient is being treated fairly. In regard to the environment, some theorists believe that hardship, drug abuse, introduction to violence, and criminals contribute to conduct disorder (Gertzfeld, 2018). Neglect from parents and exposure to disruptive behavior also influence the disease. Children who are diagnosed with conduct disorder
  • 9. usually go on to be diagnosed with an antisocial personality disorder as an adult (Gertzfeld, 2018). The onset and diagnosis are the same for both sexes, but usually, males exhibit antisocial personality disorder as adults over females (Gertzfeld, 2018). The impact a family has on managing a person with conduct disorder can be challenging. Because the symptoms are violent, it can be hard to get control of those issues and that can put pressure on family members. It is best to get treatment for the problem through cognitive and behavioral therapies. The combination of the two therapies together has been shown to be effective. Supporting your loved one is best in helping to get a good outcome. Frank, M., & Cavanna, A. E. (2013). Behavioural treatments for Tourette syndrome: An evidence-based review. Behavioural Neurology, 27(1), 105–117. doi: 10.1155/2013/134863 (Links to an external site.) Getzfeld, A. R. (2018). Abnormal psychology (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu JANET’S POST: The first disorder that I chose to discuss is dementia. Dementia falls into the category of Neurocognitive Disorders. According to Getzfeld (2018), dementia is marked by a decline in cognitive functions such as memory loss, confusion, loss of control of motor function, and issues with speech. Most of the time, people think about dementia as being a condition that affects older adults, but it can present in those much younger. For this reason, the American Psychological Association decided to label it as a major neurocognitive disorder. According to the APA (2013), to meet these criteria, one must have a decline of cognitive skill from their previous level that affects them in one or more areas such as memory, language, and motor functions, to name a few. This type of disorder disrupts one’s daily routine and can make it difficult to perform tasks that they were always
  • 10. able to do. When determining if a patient is experiencing dementia, all other medical causes have to be ruled out. It is not uncommon for the older adult population to be forgetful, but there is a difference in aging memory and dementia. Dementia shows a continued decline in cognition, which is a gradual process (Getzfeld, 2018). Many things can cause dementia, and some are reversible while some are not. According to Getzfeld (2018), dementia can be caused by Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, stroke, lack of nutrition, and medications. Gaining a complete history of the patient is essential to determine if dementia is present and what may be causing it. Alzheimer’s and dementia have similarities and differences. One difference that is often confused is that dementia is a class of cognitive decline while Alzheimer’s is considered a disease. According to Getzfeld (2018), Alzheimer’s disease changes brain structures such as the neurofibrils being tangled, plaques, and arteriosclerosis, which are irreversible. Since Alzheimer’s cannot be cured or reversed, it shows a difference when compared to dementia because some causes of dementia can be reversed. Although they have some differences, they share similar symptoms. According to Getzfeld (2018), both Alzheimer’s and dementia affect cognitive function, which makes it hard for the person to communicate appropriately, make decisions, remember things, and hinders making new memories. It is easy to want to interchange dementia and Alzheimer’s but they are different things even though they share similar manifestations. The other disorder that I chose is conduct disorder. Conduct disorder applies to children and is characterized by aggressive behavior to others that are deemed harmful (Getzfeld, 2018). While there are times that it is appropriate for a child to be aggressive to stand up for themselves, it is different when the behavior becomes harmful to others with the intent to harm others. According to the American Psychological Association (2013), conduct disorder is diagnosed if the child has displayed harmful behaviors to people and animals for one year in three of
  • 11. the fifteen categories, which include behaviors such as bullying, using a weapon that can cause serious physical injury, destroying property, and participating in a theft. There are also underlying implications that have to be considered for this disorder, with one being the environment the child is in. According to Getzfeld (2018), the environment can play a significant role in a child developing a conduct disorder. It goes back to the idea that behavior is modeled; therefore, if they live in an environment that exposes them to constant violence, then they may develop disorders such as conduct disorder. According to Getzfeld (2018), conduct disorder is closely related to antisocial personality disorder, and the biggest difference between the two is the age of the individual. A disorder that is similar and different to conduct disorder is oppositional defiant disorder. Oppositional defiant disorder is characterized by a child that throws fits and displays a lot of anger and resentment (Getzfeld, 2018). Children who have this disorder constantly fight with authority figures in an attempt to get their way. The similarity between conduct and oppositional disorder is that they both attempt to categorize aggressive behavior in children. The differences are that although those with oppositional defiant disorder have issues with anger and revenge, they are not the level of violence that is seen with conduct disorder. According to the American Psychological Association (2013), diagnosis of oppositional defiant disorder requires symptoms be present for six months and include four displays of behavior such as loss of temper, angry, likes to argue, does not comply with rules set by authority figures, and blames others for their mistakes. With either of these disorders, it is important to know the normal developmental stages of children so that you will know if the symptoms present are normal or abnormal. It is important to understand symptoms of disorders, and there can be ethical implications if you do not have a complete picture of the patient and are not licensed to practice. First, knowing how specific disorders are just the beginning of
  • 12. becoming a good provider, but it alone could get you into some trouble. Each person presents differently, and if enough research about the patient is not gained, it will be hard to determine what is going on with them. You have to know their personal history, environment, social interactions, medical history, and if certain disorders or diseases run in their family. These are just a few things, but gaining a complete picture will help guide a clinician to make the correct diagnosis. If a correct diagnosis is not made, it can have detrimental effects on the patient and those around them. Lastly, having a license to practice is essential in determining the diagnosis of a patient. The absence of a license combined with diagnosing individuals off of general knowledge of disorders is a dangerous because it could have legal and financial ramifications. The environment plays a big role in managing behaviors in dementia and conduct disorder. The environment of a patient with dementia should maintain their safety and help them keep as much of their independence as they can. According to Getzfeld (2018), the best environment for those with dementia is to keep them at home although a lot of dementia patients end up in a nursing home. Those individuals that can stay in their home can maintain some normalcy to their lives, which may help combat conditions like depression. If they go into a nursing home, it may make them feel abandoned and isolated, which puts them at risk for depression. In conduct disorder, I had already mentioned how the environment plays a role in their behavior. These children, because they lack positive attention in their environment, may cause them to seek the attention that comes with acting out. According to Getzfeld (2018), violent behavior gains the child attention and may support bad behavior because they gain a reward in it. Environment in both these situations is pivotal on the outcome of the individual. The impact of managing a loved one that is suffering from dementia or conduct disorder is vital to understand. First, in those caring for someone with dementia, it can be life-changing. It can be very stressful taking on a caregiver role for one’s
  • 13. parent. According to Laparidou, Middlemass, Karran, and Siriwardena (2019), caregiver stress is prevalent in caring for those with dementia and can cause them to develop depression. Self-care of the caregiver also tends to decrease because of the time and energy spent taking care of the individual with dementia. Having a good support system for the caregiver will help them cope with the added responsibilities that have been placed on them. Conduct disorder can carry the same stress on a parent that it does on the individual caring for a patient with dementia. According to Manor-Binyamini (2012), parents that had children with conduct disorder reported a decrease in their personal welfare as well as feeling that they cannot cope with the situation they are in. No matter the disorder, I feel that there is added weight placed on the family members because they want to help their loved one, but providing that help also comes with detriments to themselves. American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Section II: Disruptive, Impulse-Control, and Conduct Disorders. Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (5th ed.) (Links to an external site.) (Links to an external site.). https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.books.9780890425596 (Link s to an external site.) American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Section II: Neurocognitive Disorders. Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (5th ed.) (Links to an external site.) (Links to an external site.). https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.books.9780890425596 (Link s to an external site.) Getzfeld, A. R. (2018). Abnormal psychology (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu (Links to an external site.) Laparidou, D., Middlemass, J., Karran, T., & Siriwardena, A. N. (2019). Caregivers’ interactions with health care services−Mediator of stress or added strain? Experiences and perceptions of informal caregivers of people with dementia−A qualitative study. Dementia: The International Journal of Social
  • 14. Research and Practice, 18(7–8), 2526–2542. https://doi- org.proxy- library.ashford.edu/10.1177/1471301217751226 (Links to an external site.) Manor-Binyamini, I. (2012). Parenting children with conduct disorder in Israel: Caregiver burden and the sense of coherence. Community Mental Health Journal, 48(6), 781–785. https://doi-org.proxy-library.ashford.edu/10.1007/s10597-011- 9474-x MY POST: Dementia and Amnestic disorders are some of the common disorders which are experienced by different people in different areas. As far as Dementia is concerned, the disorder is characterized by the decline in memory, problem solving, language and skills in thinking. This brings about negative impacts to the people therefore making it hard for the people to carry out their daily activities. Some of the symptoms of dementia include; increased confusion, reduced concentration, memory problems and behavior changes (Brinker, 2019). On the other hand, Amnestic disorders are some of the disorders which involve loss of memories. As a result of Amnestic disorders, it becomes hard for the people to create new memories. However, majority of the people experiencing the disorder face difficulties when recalling different happenings. Some of the symptoms of Amnestic disorders include; loss of memory, lack of insights with time and disorientation with time (Gallagher, 2019). Both Amnestic disorders and dementia are similar to other illness in that they lead to loss of memories to different people. Again, the two disorders are different in that they make it hard for the people to learn new information. The other illness can easily be controlled due to the fact that they do not bring a lot of problems to the people. Moreover, the ethical implications of the importance of understanding the symptoms of the two
  • 15. disorders in general is that it ensures the violation of the people’s rights is reduced therefore ensuring that the people acquire the right services (Getzfeld, 2018). Again, the role of environment on managing behaviors to the disorders is ensuring that the affected people are provided with right services hence ensuring that they carry out their daily activities accordingly. Finally, the impact of the family in the management of a loved one suffering from the disorders is ensuring that the people are supported both financially and emotionally (Kambeitz-Ilankovic, 2019). References Brinker, M. J., Cohen, J. G., Sharrette, J. A., & Hall, T. A. (2019). Neurocognitive and neurodevelopmental impact of prenatal methamphetamine exposure: A comparison study of prenatally exposed children with nonexposed ADHD peers. Applied Neuropsychology: Child, 8(2), 132-139. Gallagher, L., Fitzgerald, J., Al Shehhi, M., Lynch, S. A., & Shen, S. (2019). DECONSTRUCTING THE NEUREXIN1 DELETION PHENOTYPE: A NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL, NEUROCOGNITIVE AND NEUROIMAGING PERSPECTIVE. European Neuropsychopharmacology, 29, S980-S981. Getzfeld, A. R. (2018). Abnormal psychology (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu Kambeitz-Ilankovic, L., Haas, S. S., Meisenzahl, E., Dwyer, D. B., Weiske, J., Peters, H., ... & Koutsouleris, N. (2019). Neurocognitive and neuroanatomical maturation in the clinical high-risk states for psychosis: a pattern recognition study. NeuroImage: Clinical, 21, 101624. EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE: Hello Robert, I enjoyed reading your valuable information and thoughtful observations. In youe answer to Ethical Implications I couldn't agree with you more. With all of these mental disorders,
  • 16. especially the ones that affect children it is imperative to be very careful not to put an unnecessary label on a child. I believe that these labels and diagnosis can become a crutch as they use them for their identity for the rest of their lives. I know a man 45 years old who was told he had ADHD and a learning disability as a child. Even though I don't see any sign of these problems he mentions them as an excuse for normal mistakes that everyone makes. He defines himself as dumb and unable to concentrate, which just isn't true and there is no evidence of that happening. It's sad and I think our society must be very careful when saddling the young and impressionable with a label that can haunt them. Young children are constantly trying to figure out who they are and where they fit into the world and if some authority figure says they are X they will many times believe this and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I learned this somewhere in one of my classes...:) I enjoyed reading your post. Respond to at least four of your classmates’ posts JEREMY’S POST: Think of an organizational change that you experienced. Describe how you were impacted by the change. An example of an organizational change that I experienced was transitioning from an Aircraft Maintenance Unit to a Fighter Squadron. I am a production superintendent and I manage all scheduled and unscheduled repairs, inspection, modification, and troubleshooting on a fleet of aircraft by directing specialized repair technicians, equipment, and spare parts consumption. My job is ultimately to provide safe, reliable aircraft to meet the flying mission requirements of the aircrew. Traditionally, aircraft maintenance has been a separate organization from the aircrew because our two operations are vast and complex. Recently, the Air Force decided to create an experimental unit that combines the maintenance personnel with
  • 17. the aircrew, and created a unique organizational structure to accommodate the transition. I was impacted by this change because my organizational structure became significantly flatter and key decision makers within the organization were now aircrew rather than maintenance officers. The aircrew brought a dynamic operational decision making capability to maintenance that allowed new processes to emerge and significantly decreased the time required to implement changes. The drawback to the new structure was the loss of maintenance management experience that occurred when maintenance officers were removed from the organization. What could the leadership have done to make the transition more successful? Cite one or more change models to support your assertion. One thing the leadership could have done to make the transition more successful would have been to establish clearer lines of responsibility and authority for each of the new leadership and management positions within the new organization’s structure. Many of the previously established processes no longer worked due to confusion about who was responsible for what and at what level decisions were allowed to be made. Senior and Fleming’s (2006) Capacity for Change model lists the degree to which organizations are willing to grant people authority and support them in their actions as key to that organizations capacity to change (Weiss, 2016). Because my organization did not effectively grant authority nor support key decision maker’s actions, our capacity for change was limited. Reference Weiss, J. W. (2016). Organizational change (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu/ NORMA’S POST: Think of an organizational change that you experienced.
  • 18. Describe how you were impacted by the change. An example of an organization changed was when I came of the Pre-K classroom to become a full-time director. When we moved into a larger facility and licensed for 63 children. Our DCFS rep Karen, told the owner that we hire full time director or Norma comes out of the classroom, and becomes the director. At the other building we were licensed for 45, with that I was able to be teacher/ director. With that being said, I came out of the classroom, because I know how the owner expectations and not to change the systems in the office. And she would always tell me I’m a phone call away. She was the director at the other location. Being a full-time director has many responsibilities from parents, children and mainly the staff. And attending director meeting, and learning ISBE paperwork, learning how to do the billing at the end of the months. The biggest component is dealing with the Child Care Resource and Referral with papers work, and making sure that parents turn everything in. I would call and ask her for help, or I would call her and let her know when I made a mistake. She than would assist me on how to fix it and would say that’s an easy fix. What could the leadership have done to make the transition more successful? Cite one or more change models to support your assertion. One of the most important things the leaders could have done is given me that one on one training, instead of me jumping in and learning it myself. For example, I had the owner as a teacher giving me guidance on how to become a better teacher, I wish I could have had that as a director. As stated in the text sustaining major organizational change- ensuring that planned changes ensure- does not involve” one- shot” or quick fix solution embedding change in organizations requires continuous top-down, bottom-up leadership and process improvement- including supportive and innovative actions throughout the enterprise ( /Weiss, 2016). Reference:
  • 19. Weiss, J. W. (2016). Organizational change (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu/ JOHNNY’S POST: Identify factors that can cause change initiatives to fail and the five pillars that can cause them to succeed. While people may have a good reason for change it does not always succeed. There are many causes that can make change initiatives fail. As stated by Weiss, 2016, “Just as important, the people involved in and affected by the change must not be excluded. Failing to communicate with and involve professionals and employees who are affected by such changes often creates opposition and resistance.” (Ch 4.1, Para 3). I believe this is the main reason change initiatives fail. By not including all the employees a company runs the risk of losing support. Other reasons for failure include short-term fix approach and failure to sustain change. Opposite of failure is success. According to the text, 2016, “five principal components that are integral to any successful company: leadership, strategy, culture, structure, and systems.” (Ch 4.3, Para 2). If a company has a solid base consisting of these five pillars than they are more like to have success with organizational change. Highlight an organization that failed to adapt and evaluate which of these factors and pillars were demonstrated by this organization. An organization that failed to adapt is Blockbuster. The company had become very successful before movie streaming became available. The company was even approached by Netflix at an early stage to join forces. A huge mistake made by Blockbuster. If they had better leadership and strategy the company could of avoided bankruptcy and almost certainly be a
  • 20. multibillion dollar company. Reference: Weiss, J. W. (2016). Organizational change (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu/ JERMIKAL’S POST: The company I choose for this week’s discussion is Motorola. The organizations first major success was with car radios, progressing to two-way radios that eventually led Motorola to build and sell the first mobile phone in the world. If I remember correctly, I want to say my parents first real cell phone was a Motorola. Back when everyone had flip phones. Motorola dominated the industry back in 2003, when it introduced the trendy Razr, the mobile phone with the highest revenue ever. But they did not concentrate on devices that can manage email and other details, which caused them to lose ground to competitors such as Research in Motion, Apple, LG and Samsung. Motorola was so heavily defeated that its cell phone business became a chronic money-loser and this year the company announced intentions to split it off into a separate company, leaving the Motorola center to concentrate on networking equipment and a few other sectors. The company suffered from failure to recognize the need for change. Which at first glance I think who can blame them, when they started off so successfully. But then that is why competition exist. References: Weiss, J.W. (2016). Organizational Change (2nd ed.). San Diego, CA: Bridgepoint Education, Inc. Newman, R. (2010). 10 Great Companies That Lost Their Edge EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE: Hello Aziza, I think Sears is one of many examples of brick and mortar department stores that struggled to remain relevant in today's
  • 21. buy anything online market. The whole transition is interesting to me. I believe that many people will eventually go back to brick and mortar shopping with certain items because they enjoy being able to pick up and hold an item before they buy it. For example, buying clothing online is difficult because people want to try on the clothing to make sure it fits and looks good on them before they buy it. Companies like stitch fix are trying to address this concern by mailing clothing items back and forth with customers. While innovative, I don't think this business strategy will overtake the brick and mortar shopping experience due to convenience and the instant gratification of purchasing clothing that you know fits. Euro Disney: Bungling a Successful Concept With high expectations, Euro Disney opened just outside Paris in April 1992. Success seemed assured. After all, the Disneylands in Florida, California, and more recently, Japan, were all spectacular successes. But somehow all the rosy expectations became a delusion. The opening results cast even the future continuance of Euro Disney into doubt. How could what seemed so right be so wrong? What mistakes were made? PRELUDE OPTIMISM Perhaps a few early omens should have raised caution. Between 1987 and 1991, three $150 million amusement parks had opened in France with great fanfare. All had fallen flat, and by 1991 two were in bankruptcy. Now the Walt Disney Company was finalizing its plans to open Europe's first Disneyland early in 1992. This would turn out to be a $4.4 billion enterprise sprawling over 5,000 acres twenty miles east of Paris. Initially it would have six hotels and 5,200 rooms, more rooms than the entire city of Cannes, and lodging was expected to triple in a few years as Disney opened a second theme park to keep visitors at the resort longer.
  • 22. Disney also expected to develop a growing office complex, this to be only slightly smaller than France's biggest, La Défense, in Paris. Plans also called for shopping malls, apartments, golf courses, and vacation homes. Euro Disney would tightly control all this ancillary development, designing and building nearly everything itself and eventually selling off the commercial properties at a huge profit. Disney executives had no qualms about the huge enterprise, which would cover an area one-fifth the size of Paris itself. They were more worried that the park might not be big enough to handle the crowds: “My biggest fear is that we will be too successful.”1 Company executives initially predicted that 11 million Europeans would visit the extravaganza in the first year alone. After all, Europeans accounted for 2.7 million visits to the US Disney parks and spent $1.6 billion on Disney merchandise. Surely a park in closer proximity would draw many thousands more. As Disney executives thought more about it, the forecast of 11 million seemed most conservative. They reasoned that because Disney parks in the United States (population of 250 million) attracted 41 million visitors a year, if Euro Disney attracted visitors in the same proportion, attendance could reach 60 million with Western Europe's 370 million people. Table 10.1 shows the 1990 attendance at the two US Disney parks and the newest Japanese Disneyland, as well as the attendance/population ratios. Adding fuel to the optimism was the fact that Europeans typically have more vacation time than US workers. For example, five-week vacations are commonplace for French and Germans, compared with two to three weeks for US workers. The failure of the three earlier French parks was seen as irrelevant. Robert Fitzpatrick, Euro Disneyland's chairman, stated that Disney was spending 22 billion French francs to open the park, compared to the earlier competitors who spent 700 million. “This means we can pay infinitely more attention to details—costumes, hotels, shops, trash baskets—to create a
  • 23. fantastic place. There's just too great a response to Disney for us to fail.”2 Nonetheless, a few scattered signs could be found that not everyone was happy with the coming of Disney. Leftist demonstrators at Euro Disney's stock offering greeted company executives with eggs, ketchup, and “Mickey Go Home” signs. Some French intellectuals decried the pollution of the country's cultural ambiance with the coming of Mickey Mouse and company: They called the park an American cultural abomination. The mainstream press also seemed contrary, describing every Disney setback with delight. And French officials in negotiating with Disney sought less American and more European culture at France's Magic Kingdom. Still, such protests and bad press seemed contrived and unrepresentative, and certainly not predictive. Company officials dismissed the early criticism as “the ravings of an insignificant elite.”3 TABLE 10.1 Attendance and Attendance/Population Ratios of Disney Parks, 1990 THE LOCATION DECISION In the search for a site for Euro Disney, Disney executives examined 200 locations in Europe. The other finalist was Barcelona, Spain. Its major attraction was warmer weather. But the transportation system was not as good as around Paris, and it also lacked level tracts of land of sufficient size. The clincher for the decision for Paris was its more central location. Table 10.2 shows the number of people within two to six hours of the Paris site. The beet fields of the Marne-la-Vallée area were chosen. Being near Paris seemed a major advantage, as Paris was Europe's biggest tourist draw. France was eager to win the project to help lower its jobless rate and also to enhance its role as the center of tourist activity in Europe. The French government expected the project to create at least 30,000 jobs and to contribute $1 billion a year from foreign visitors. To encourage the project, the French government allowed
  • 24. Disney to buy up huge tracts of land at 1971 prices. It provided $750 million in loans at below-market rates and also spent hundreds of millions of dollars on subway and other capital improvements for the park. For example, Paris's express subway was extended out to the park; a 35-minute ride from downtown cost about $2.50. A new railroad station for the high-speed Train à Grande Vitesse (TGV) was built only 150 yards from the entrance gate. This enabled visitors from Brussels to arrive in only ninety minutes. And when the English Channel tunnel opened in 1994, even London was only three hours and ten minutes away. In fact, Euro Disney was the second largest construction project in Europe, second only to construction of the English Channel tunnel. TABLE 10.2 Number of People within 2–6 Hours of the Paris Site Within a 2-hour drive: 17 million people Within a 4-hour drive: 41 million people Within a 6-hour drive: 109 million people Within a 2-hour flight: 310 million people Source: Euro Disney. Amusement Business magazine. Commentary: The much more densely populated and geographically compact European continent makes access to Euro Disney much more convenient than accessing Disney parks is in the United States. FINANCING Euro Disney cost $4.4 billion. Table 10.3 shows the sources of financing in percentages. The Disney Company had a 49 percent stake in the project, the most that the French government would allow. For this stake, it invested $160 million, while other investors contributed $1.2 billion in equity. The rest was financed by loans from the government, banks, and special partnerships formed to buy properties and lease them back.
  • 25. The payoff for Disney began after the park opened. The company received 10 percent of Euro Disney's admission fees and 5 percent of the food and merchandise revenues. This was the same arrangement as Disney had with the Japanese park. But in Tokyo Disneyland, the company took no ownership interest, opting instead only for the licensing fees and a percentage of the revenues. The reason for the conservative position with Tokyo Disneyland was that Disney money was heavily committed to building Epcot Center in Florida. Furthermore, Disney had some concerns about the Tokyo enterprise. This was the first non-American Disneyland and also the first cold- weather one. It seemed prudent to minimize the risks. But this turned out to be a significant blunder of conservatism: Tokyo became a huge success, as the following Information Box discusses in more detail. TABLE 10.3 Sources of Initial Financing for Euro Disney (percent) Total to Finance: $4.4 billion 100% Shareholders equity, including $160 million from Walt Disney Co. 32 Loan from French government 22 Loan from group of 45 banks 21 Bank loans to Disney hotels 16 Real estate partnerships 9 Source: Euro Disney. Commentary: The full flavor of the leverage is shown here, with equity comprising only 32 percent of the total expenditure. SPECIAL MODIFICATIONS With the experiences of the previous theme parks, particularly that of the first cold-weather park in Tokyo, Disney
  • 26. construction executives were able to bring state-of-the-art refinements to Euro Disney. Exacting demands were placed on French construction companies, and a higher level of performance and compliance resulted than many thought possible. The result was a major project on time if not completely on budget. In contrast, the Channel tunnel was plagued by delays and severe cost overruns. INFORMATION BOX THE TOKYO DISNEYLAND SUCCESS Tokyo Disneyland opened in 1983 on 201 acres in the eastern suburb of Urazasu. It was arranged that an ownership group, Oriental Land, would build, own, and operate the theme park, with advice from Disney. The owners borrowed most of the $650 million needed to bring the project to fruition. Disney invested no money, but received 10 percent of the revenues from admission and rides and 5 percent of sales of food, drink, and souvenirs. While the start was slow, the Japanese soon began flocking to the park in great numbers. By 1990, some 16 million a year passed through the turnstiles, about one-fourth more than visited Disneyland in California. In fiscal year 1990, revenues reached $988 million with profits of $150 million. Indicative of the Japanese preoccupation with all things American, the park served almost no Japanese food, and the live entertainers were mostly American. Japanese management even apologized for the presence of a single Japanese restaurant inside the park: “A lot of elderly Japanese came here from outlying parts of Japan, and they were not very familiar with hot dogs and hamburgers.”4 Disney executives were soon to realize the great mistake they made in not taking substantial ownership in Tokyo Disneyland. They did not want to make the same mistake with Euro Disney. Would you expect the acceptance of the genuine American experience in Tokyo to be indicative of the reaction of the French and Europeans? Why or why not? 4 James Sterngold, “Cinderella Hits Her Stride in Tokyo,” New York Times, February 17, 1991, p. 6.
  • 27. One of the things learned from the cold-weather project in Japan was that more needed to be done to protect visitors from such weather problems as wind, rain, and cold. Consequently, Euro Disney's ticket booths were protected from the elements, as were the lines waiting for attractions and even the moving sidewalk from the 12,000-car parking area. Certain French accents—British, German, and Italian accents as well—were added to the American flavor. The park had two official languages, English and French, but multilingual guides were available for Dutch, Spanish, German, and Italian visitors. Discoveryland, based on the science fiction of France's Jules Verne, was a new attraction. A theater with a full 360-degree screen acquainted visitors with a sweep of European history. And, not the least modification for cultural diversity, Snow White spoke German, and the Belle Notte Pizzeria and Pasticceria were right next to Pinocchio. Disney foresaw that it might encounter some cultural problems. This was one of the reasons for choosing Robert Fitzpatrick as Euro Disney's president. While American, he spoke French and had a French wife. However, he was not able to establish the rapport needed and was replaced in 1993 by a French native. Still, some of his admonitions that France should not be approached as if it were Florida fell on deaf ears. RESULTS As the April 1992 opening approached, the company launched a massive communications blitz aimed at publicizing the fact that the fabled Disney experience was now accessible to all Europeans. Some 2,500 people from various print and broadcast media were lavishly entertained while being introduced to the new facilities. Most media people were positively impressed with the inauguration and with the enthusiastic spirit of the staffers. These public relations efforts, however, were criticized by some for being heavy-handed and for not providing access to Disney executives. As 1992 wound down after the opening, it became clear that revenue projections were, unbelievably, not being met. But the
  • 28. opening turned out to be in the middle of a severe recession in Europe. European visitors, perhaps as a consequence, were far more frugal than their American counterparts. Many packed their own lunches and shunned the Disney hotels. A visitor named Corine from southern France typified the “no-spend” attitude of many: “It's a bottomless pit,” she said as she, her husband, and their three children toured Euro Disney on a three- day visit. “Every time we turn around, one of the kids wants to buy something.”5 Perhaps investor expectations, despite the logic and rationale, were simply unrealistic. Indeed, Disney had initially priced the park and the hotels to meet revenue targets and assumed demand was there at any price. Park admission was $42.25 for adults—higher than at the American parks. A room at the flagship Disneyland Hotel at the park's entrance cost about $340 a night, the equivalent of a top hotel in Paris. It was soon averaging only a 50 percent occupancy. Guests were not staying as long or spending as much on the fairly high-priced food and merchandise. We can label the initial pricing strategy at Euro Disney as skimming pricing. The following Information Box discusses skimming and its opposite, penetration pricing. Disney executives soon realized they had made a major miscalculation. While visitors to Florida's Disney World often stayed more than four days, Euro Disney—with one theme park compared to Florida's three—was proving to be a two-day experience at best. Many visitors arrived early in the morning, rushed to the park, staying late at night, then checked out of the hotel the next morning before heading back to the park for one final exploration. The problems of Euro Disney were not public acceptance (despite the earlier critics). Europeans loved the place. Since the opening, it attracted just under 1 million visitors a month, thus easily achieving the original projections. Such patronage made it Europe's biggest paid tourist attraction. But large numbers of frugal patrons did not come close to enabling Disney to meet revenue and profit projections and cover a
  • 29. bloated overhead. INFORMATION BOX SKIMMING AND PENETRATION PRICING A firm with a new product or service may be in a temporary monopolistic situation. If there is little or no present and potential competition, more discretion in pricing is possible. In such a situation (and, of course, Euro Disney was in this situation), one of two basic and opposite approaches may be taken in the pricing strategy: (1) skimming or (2) penetration. Skimming is a relatively high-price strategy. It is the most tempting where the product or service is highly differentiated, as it yields high per-unit profits. It is compatible with a quality image. But it has limitations. It assumes a rather inelastic demand curve, in which sales will not be appreciably affected by price. And if the product or service is easily imitated (which was hardly the case with Euro Disney), then competitors are encouraged because of the high profit margins. The penetration strategy of low prices assumes an elastic demand curve, with sales increasing substantially if prices can be lowered. It is compatible with economies of scale, and discourages competitive entry. The classic example of penetration pricing was the Model T Ford. Henry Ford lowered his prices to put the car within the means of the general public, expanded production into the millions, and in so doing realized new horizons of economies of scale. Euro Disney correctly saw itself in a monopoly position; it correctly judged that it had a relatively inelastic demand curve with customers flocking to the park regardless of rather high prices. What it did not reckon with was the shrewdness of European visitors: Because of the high prices, they shortened their stays, avoided the hotels, brought their own food and drink, and only sparingly bought the Disney merchandise. What advantages would a lower price penetration strategy have offered Euro Disney? Do you see any drawbacks? Other operational errors and miscalculations, most of these cultural, hurt the enterprise. A policy of serving no alcohol in
  • 30. the park caused consternation in a country where wine is customary at lunch and dinner. (This policy was soon reversed.) Disney thought Monday would be a light day and Friday a heavy one, and allocated staff accordingly, but the reverse was true. It found great peaks and valleys in attendance: The number of visitors per day in the high season could be ten times the number in slack times. The need to lay off employees during quiet periods ran up against France's inflexible labor schedules. One unpleasant surprise concerned breakfast. Disney executives were led to believe that Europeans did not eat breakfast; however, it turned out they wanted breakfast at Euro Disney. The lines became unmanageable as Disney tried to serve 2,500 breakfasts in restaurants that seated 350 people.6 Disney failed to anticipate another demand, this time from tour bus drivers. Restrooms were built for fifty drivers, but on peak days 2,000 drivers were seeking the facilities. “From impatient drivers to grumbling bankers, Disney stepped on toe after European toe.”7 For the fiscal year ending September 30, 1993, the amusement park had lost $960 million in US dollars, and the future of the park was in doubt. (As of December 31, 1993, the cumulative loss was 6.04 billion francs, or $1.03 billion.) The Walt Disney corporation made $175 million available to tide Euro Disney over until the next spring. Adding to the problems of the struggling park were heavy interest costs. As depicted in Table 10.3 above, against a total cost of $4.4 billion, only 32 percent of the project was financed by equity investment. Some $2.9 billion was borrowed primarily from 60 creditor banks, at interest rates running as high as 11 percent. Thus, the enterprise began heavily leveraged, and the hefty interest charges greatly increased the overhead to be covered from operations. Serious negotiations began with the banks to restructure and refinance. ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER The $960 million lost in the first fiscal year represented a shortfall of more than $2.5 million a day. The situation was not quite as dire as these statistics would seem to indicate.
  • 31. Actually, the park was generating an operating profit. But nonoperating costs were bringing it deeply into the red. While operations were far from satisfactory, they were becoming better. It had taken twenty months to smooth out the wrinkles and adjust to the miscalculations about hotel demand and the willingness of Europeans to pay substantial prices for lodging, meals, and merchandise. Operational efficiencies were slowly improving. By the beginning of 1994, Euro Disney had been made more affordable. Prices of some hotel rooms were cut—for example, at the low end, from $76 per night to $51. Expensive jewelry was replaced by $10 T-shirts and $5 crayon sets. Luxury sit- down restaurants were converted to self-service. Off-season admission prices were reduced from $38 to $30. And operating costs were reduced 7 percent by streamlining operations and eliminating over 900 jobs. Efficiency and economy became the new watchwords. Merchandise in stores was pared from 30,000 items to 17,000, with more of the remaining goods being pure US Disney products. (The company had thought that European tastes might prefer more subtle items than the garish Mickey and Minnie souvenirs, but this proved untrue.) The number of different food items offered by park services was reduced more than 50 percent. New training programs were designed to remotivate the 9,000 full-time permanent employees, to make them more responsive to customers and more flexible in their job assignments. Employees in contact with the public were given crash courses in German and Spanish. Still, as we have seen, the problem had not been attendance, although the recession and the high prices had reduced it. Some 18 million people passed through the turnstiles in the first twenty months of operation. But they were not spending money as people did in the US parks. Furthermore, Disney had alienated some European tour operators with its high prices, and it diligently sought to win them back. Management had hoped to reduce the heavy interest overhead by
  • 32. selling the hotels to private investors. But the hotels had an occupancy rate of only 55 percent, making them unattractive to investors. While the recession was a factor in such low occupancy rates, most of the problem lay in the calculation of lodging demands. With the park just thirty-five minutes from the center of Paris, many visitors stayed in town. About the same time as the opening, the real estate market in France collapsed, making the hotels unsalable in the short term. This added to the overhead burden and confounded business plan forecasts. While some analysts were relegating Euro Disney to the cemetery, few remembered that Orlando's Disney World showed early symptoms of being a disappointment. Costs were heavier than expected, and attendance was below expectations. But Orlando's Disney World turned out to be one of the most profitable resorts in North America. A FAVORABLE PROGNOSIS Euro Disney had many things going for it, despite the disastrous early results. In May 1994, a station on the high-speed rail running from southern to northern France opened within walking distance of Euro Disney. This helped fill many of the hotel rooms too ambitiously built. Summer 1994, the 50th anniversary of the Normandy invasion, brought many people to France. Another favorable sign for Euro Disney was the English Channel tunnel's opening in 1994, which could potentially bring a flood of British tourists. Furthermore, the recession in Europe was bound to end, and with it should come renewed interest in travel. As real estate prices became more favorable, hotels could be sold and real estate development around the park spurred. Even as Disney Chairman Michael Eisner threatened to close the park unless lenders restructured the debt, Disney increased its French presence, opening a Disney store on the Champs Elysees. The likelihood of a Disney pullout seemed remote, despite the posturing of Eisner, as royalty fees could be a sizable source of revenues even if the park only broke even
  • 33. after servicing its debt. With only a 3.5 percent increase in revenues in 1995 and a 5 percent increase in 1996, these could yield $46 million in royalties for the parent company. “You can't ask, ‘What does Euro Disney mean in 1995?’ You have to ask, ‘What does it mean in 1998?’”8 SUMMARY OF MAJOR MISTAKES Euro Disney, as we have seen, fell far short of expectations in the first twenty months of its operation, so much so that its continued existence was even questioned. What went wrong? EXTERNAL FACTORS A serious economic recession that affected all of Europe undoubtedly was a major impediment to meeting expectations. As noted before, it adversely affected attendance—although still not all that much—but drastically affected spending patterns, with frugality being the order of the day for many visitors. The recession also affected real estate demand and prices, thus saddling Disney with hotels it had hoped to sell profitably to eager investors, and thereby take the strain off its hefty interest payments. The company assumed that European visitors would not be greatly different from those visitors, foreign and domestic, of US Disney parks. Yet, at least in the first few years of operation, visitors were much more price conscious. This suggested that those within a two- to four-hour drive of Euro Disney were considerably different from the ones who traveled overseas, at least in spending ability and willingness. INTERNAL FACTORS Despite the decades of experience with the US Disney parks and the successful experience with the newer Japan park, Disney still made serious blunders in its operational planning, such as the demand for breakfasts, the insistence on wine at meals, the severe peaks and valleys in scheduling, and even such mundane things as sufficient restrooms for tour bus drivers. It had problems in motivating and training its French employees in efficiency and customer orientation. Did all these mistakes reflect an intractable French mindset or a deficiency of Disney
  • 34. management? Perhaps both. But should not Disney management have researched all cultural differences more thoroughly? Further, the park needed major streamlining of inventories and operations after the opening. The mistakes suggested an arrogant mindset by Disney management: “We were arrogant,” concedes one executive. “It was like, ‘We're building the Taj Mahal and people will come—on our terms.’”9 The miscalculations in hotel rooms and in pricing of many products, including food services, showed an insensitivity to the harsh economic conditions. But the greatest mistake was taking on too much debt for the park. The highly leveraged situation burdened Euro Disney with such hefty interest payments and overhead that the break-even point was impossibly high, and even threatened the viability of the enterprise. See the following Information Box for a discussion of the important inputs and implications affecting the break-even point, and how these should play a role in strategic planning. INFORMATION BOX THE BREAK-EVEN POINT A break-even analysis is a vital tool in making go/no go decisions about new ventures and alternative business strategies. This can be shown graphically as follows: Below the break-even point, the venture suffers losses; above it, the venture becomes profitable. Let us make a hypothetical comparison of Euro Disney, with its $1.6 billion in high-interest loans (some of these as high as 11 percent) from the banks, and what the situation might be with more equity and less borrowed funds. For this example, let us assume that other fixed costs are $240 million, that the average interest rate on the debt is 10 percent, and that average profit margin (contribution to overhead) from each visitor is $32. Now let us consider two scenarios: (a) $1.6 billion of debt, and (b) only $0.5 billion of debt. The number of visitors needed to breakeven is determined as follows:
  • 35. Because Euro Disney expected 11,000,000 visitors the first year, it obviously was not going to break even while servicing $1.6 billion in debt with $160 million in interest charges per year. The average visitor would have to be induced to spend more, thereby increasing the average profit or contribution to overhead. In making go/no go decisions, many costs can be estimated quite closely. What cannot be determined as surely are the sales figures. Certain things can be done to affect the break-even point. Obviously it can be lowered if the overhead is reduced, as we saw in scenario (b). Higher prices also result in a lower break-even point because of greater per customer profits (but would probably affect total sales quite adversely). Promotion expenses can be either increased or decreased and affect the break-even point; but they probably also have an impact on sales. Some costs of operation can be reduced, thus lowering the break-even point. But the hefty interest charges act as a lodestone over an enterprise, greatly increasing the overhead and requiring what may be an unattainable break-even point. Does a new venture have to break even or make a profit the first year to be worth going into? Why or why not? Were such mistakes and miscalculations beyond what we would expect of reasonable executives? Probably not, with the possible exception of the crushing burden of debt. Any new venture is susceptible to surprises and the need to streamline and weed out its inefficiencies. While we would have expected such to have been done faster and more effectively from a well-tried Disney operation, European, and particularly French and Parisian, consumers and employees showed different behavioral and attitudinal patterns than expected. The worst sin that Disney management and investors could make would be to give up on Euro Disney and not to look ahead a few years. A hint of the future promise was Christmas week of 1993. Despite the first year's $920 million in red ink, some 35,000 packed the park most days. A week later on a cold
  • 36. January day, some of the rides still had 40-minute waits. POSTSCRIPT The problems of Euro Disney were still not resolved by mid- 1994. The theme park and resort near Paris remained troubled. On March 15, 1994, an agreement was struck, aimed at making Euro Disney profitable by September 30, 1995. The European banks would fund another $500 million and make concessions such as forgiving eighteen months interest and deferring all principal payments for three years. In return, Walt Disney Company agreed to spend about $750 million to bail out its Euro Disney affiliate. Disney also agreed to eliminate for five years the lucrative management fees and royalties it received on the sale of tickets and merchandise.10 In addition, a new source for financing had emerged. A member of the Saudi Arabian royal family agreed to invest up to $500 million for a 24 percent stake in Euro Disney. Prince Alwaleed had shown considerable sophistication in investing in troubled enterprises in the past. Now his commitment to Euro Disney showed a belief in the ultimate success of the resort.11 Finally, in the third quarter of 1995, Euro Disney posted its first profit, some $35 million for the period. This compared with a year earlier loss of $113 million. By now, Euro Disney was only 39 percent owned by Disney. It attributed the turnaround partly to a new marketing strategy in which prices were slashed both at the gate and within the theme park in an effort to boost attendance, and also to shed the nagging image of being overpriced. It also officially changed its name to Disneyland Paris to more closely identify the park “with one of the most romantic and exciting cities in the world” and dissociate itself from the business-like connotation of the word “Euro.”12 To the delight of the French government, Disney opened a movie theme park next to Magic Kingdom, Walt Disney Studios in March 2002. It blended Disney entertainment with the history and culture of European film. Marketing efforts reflected a newfound cultural awareness, and efforts were focused largely on selling the new park through travel agents, whom Disney
  • 37. initially neglected in promoting Disneyland Paris. The timing could have been better, though, as tourism took a downturn following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.13 By the end of 2004, Disneyland Paris was again facing record losses, partly because of the resumption of full royalty payments and management fees due to Walt Disney Co. But deeper problems beset the venture. Attendance remained flat at about 12.4 million. The new Disney Studios Park opened to expectations of 4 million visitors, but only 2.2 million came in 2004, and many complained that it did not have enough attractions.14 Disneyland Paris opened several new attractions between 2007 and 2010, but with the exception of 2008, continued to face losses. In 2009 and 2010, Disneyland Paris again deferred interest payments to its largest lender as well as royalty fees to the Walt Disney Company. RECENT UPDATE Disneyland Paris continued to face a tumultuous situation. For example, on December 23, 2009, one of the busiest days for the resort, its staff went on strike, disrupting its daily parades to the boos and hisses of a huge crowd of holiday visitors. The entire episode was caught on several guests' cell phones and posted to YouTube.15 In 2010, two workers, a chef and a cook, committed suicide. The company denied the suicides had to do with work, but family members and a trade union insisted the suicides were work related. The chef wrote on a suicide note that he did “not want to return to working for Mickey.”16 CEO Philippe Gas said that Disneyland Paris saw “certain fundamental changes in consumer behavior” as tourists booked at the last minute, sought out promotional incentives, and stayed close to home.17 The attendance figures and financial results for 2006 through 2011 shown in Table 10.4 indicate that the situation was not improving significantly. There is a lot at stake for Disney in the success of Disneyland Paris. Failure would hurt its global brand image as it is expanding into China and elsewhere in the Far East. Perhaps the lessons learned in Paris of trying to keep visitors longer while
  • 38. saving on fixed costs will transfer. The Information Box on Hong Kong Disneyland suggests that some lessons learned in Europe and the early years in Hong Kong might finally be assimilating. Or are they? TABLE 10.4: Disneyland Paris 2006–2011 Attendance Figures and Financial Results INFORMATION BOX HONG KONG DISNEYLAND When Hong Kong Disneyland opened in 2005, it struggled to connect with consumers. It missed its attendance target of 5.6 million visitors in its first year, and attendance dropped nearly 30 percent in the second year to only four million. The travel industry was quick to criticize that the park was too small and not appealing to mainland Chinese audiences. To better understand the China market, in the summer of 2007 Disney executives surveyed consumers in their homes and found that the park needed to be more Chinese; they also learned that the heritage of Disney stories was not known to most Chinese. Fortuitously, 2008 was the year of the rat, and they hoped to transform this into the “Year of the Mouse” with their rodents, Mickey and Minnie, dressed in special red Chinese outfits. Parades down Main Street featured a dragon dance and puppets of birds, flowers, and fish, set to traditional Chinese music. Mickey and Minnie were joined by the god of wealth, and also gods of longevity and happiness. Even with the research and fine tuning, some missteps still occurred. A Disney ad in 2006 featured a family consisting of two kids and two parents. China's government, however, limits most couples to just one child. So the commercial had to be reset to show one child, two parents, and two grandparents. During the year of the mouse campaign, Disney hoped that “kids and families are discovering Disney stories together.”18 Design a marketing strategy for the theme park to better appeal to Chinese consumers. 18 Geoffrey A. Fowler, “Main Street, H.K.,” Wall Street
  • 39. Journal, January 23, 2008, pp. B1, B2. Invitation for Your Analysis and Conclusions How do you account for Disney management erring so badly, both at the beginning and even for years afterwards? Any suggestions? WHAT WE CAN LEARN Beware the Arrogant Mindset, Especially When Dealing with New Situations and New Cultures French sensitivities were offended by Disney corporate executives who often turned out to be brash, insensitive, and overbearing. A contentious attitude by Disney personnel alienated people and aggravated planning and operational difficulties. Such a mindset is a natural concomitant of success. It is said that success breeds arrogance, but this inclination must be fought against by those who would spurn the ideas and concerns of others. For a proud and touchy people, the French, this almost contemptuous attitude by the Americans fueled resentment and glee at Disney miscues. It did not foster cooperation, understanding, or the willingness to smooth the process. One might almost speculate that, had not the potential economic benefits to France been so great, the Euro Disney project might never have been approved. Great Success May Be Ephemeral We often find that great successes are not lasting, that they have no staying power. Somehow the success pattern gets lost or forgotten or is not well rounded. Other times an operation grows beyond the capability of the originators. Hungry competitors are always in the wings, ready to take advantage of any lapse. As we saw with Euro Disney, having a closed mind to new ideas or needed revisions of an old success pattern—the arrogance of success—makes expansion into different environments more difficult and even risky. While corporate Disney has continued to have good success with its other theme parks, competitors are moving in with their own theme parks in the United States and elsewhere. We may
  • 40. question whether this industry is approaching saturation, and we may wonder whether Disney has learned from its mistakes in Europe. Highly Leveraged Situations Are Extremely Vulnerable During most of the 1980s, many managers, including corporate raiders, pursued a strategy of debt financing (leveraging) in contrast to equity financing (stock ownership). Funds for such borrowing were usually readily available, heavy debt had income tax advantages, and profits could be distributed among fewer shares so that return on equity was enhanced. During this time a few voices decried the over-leveraged situations of many companies. They predicted that when the eventual economic downturn came, such firms would find themselves unable to meet the heavy interest burden. Most lenders paid little heed to such lonesome voices and encouraged greater borrowing. The widely publicized problems of some of the raiders in the late 1980s, such as Robert Campeau, who acquired major department store corporations only to find himself overextended and lose everything, suddenly changed some expansionist lending sentiments. The harsh reality dawned that these arrangements were often fragile indeed, especially when they rested on optimistic projections for asset sales, for revenues, and for cost savings to cover the interest payments. An economic slowdown hastened the demise of some of these ill- advised speculations. The subprime mortgage bubble of 2007 and 2008 was arguably the supreme example of wild exuberance crashing down to bring the whole economy into a recession. Disney was guilty of speculative excesses with Euro Disney, relying far too much on borrowed funds and assuming that assets, such as hotels, could be easily sold off at higher prices to other investors. As we saw in the break-even box above, hefty interest charges from such over-leveraged conditions can jeopardize the viability of the enterprise if revenue and profit projections fail to meet the rosy expectations. Be Judicious with the Skimming Price Strategy Euro Disney faced the classical situation favorable for a
  • 41. skimming price strategy. It was in a monopoly position, with no equivalent competitors likely. It faced a somewhat inelastic demand curve, which indicated that people would come almost regardless of price. So why not price to maximize per-unit profits? Unfortunately for Disney, the wily Europeans circumvented the high prices by frugality. Of course, a severe recession exacerbated the situation. The learning insight from this example is that a skimming price assumes that customers are willing and able to pay the higher prices and have no lower-priced competitive alternatives. It is a faulty strategy when many customers are unable, or unwilling, to pay the high prices and can find a way to experience the product or service in a modest way. CONSIDER Can you think of other learning insights from this case? TEAM DEBATE EXERCISE It is two years after the opening and Euro Disney is a monumental mistake, profit-wise. Two schools of thought are emerging for improving the situation. One is to pour more money into the project, build one or two more theme parks, and really make this another Disney World. The other camp believes more investment would be wasted at this time, that the need is to pare expenses to the bone and wait for an eventual upturn. Debate the two positions