1. Promise is debt
Trouble in (agile) paradise
Marc Evers - marc@qwan.it
Willem van den Ende - willem@qwan.it
© 2008-2010 QWAN
Lean & Kanban Europe 2010, 24 September 2010

2. Overview
●
About us
●
Benefits
● Our problem
●
Systems Thinking
in six simple steps
● Summary
●
Q&A

3. willem@qwan.it rob@qwan.it marc@qwan.it
www.qwan.it

4. Key points
Most problems are systemic
Look at whole & parts
Tackle root causes, instead of fire fighting
Prevent local optimization

5. Our problem
We taught everybody agile but....
customers are unhappy
developers are preparing their resumes
What happened?
What can we do now?
How can we prevent this the next time?

6. We need to look at
the whole system

7. Diagram of Effects – 6 Steps
1. tell the story
− ask questions, determine scope and focus question
2. collect variables
− observable or measurable
− behaviour over time
3. determine cause effect relations
4. look for loops
− reinforcing, stabilizing
5. simplify
− 7 ± 2 variables - remove unrelated variables
− split up the diagram
6. identify possible interventions

8. Step 1 – Tell the Story
Perceived Situation
Telling already gives inspiration
Try not to jump to solutions now

9. Story - Adding a customer
Who has 1 customer?
Who serves multiple customers?
Who has to share developers with other
customers?

10. Manager in the middle
3 customers, 4 developers, 1 manager
'special features' for each customer

11. The road to hell is paved with good
intentions
Let's promise one 'special feature'
to show what we can do

12. Step 2 – Collect Variables
Simple names work best
We use # to indicate numbers
Brainstorm: don't worry about relevance or
relations

13. Our variables
Customer
satisfaction Features
promised
Customer
expectations Planned
features

14. Step 3 – Determine Cause Effect
Relations
'Positive' Effect 'Negative' Effect
B A B
A
Delay
A B

15. Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Customer
satisfaction

16. Tell some more...
Developers work harder, but cut corners
More defects
Customers :(
Manager promises a bit more...

17. Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Customer Workload
satisfaction
Pressure
Corners cut to
Defects
deliver
Design
debt

18. Step ... “Oh yes, that reminds me”
Design debt makes each new feature
more €xp€nsiv€
velocity
goes
down

19. Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Customer Workload
satisfaction
Probability that Defects Corners Pressure
promises will be cut to deliver
fulfilled
Design
Time needed for defects debt
and new features

20. Step 4 – Identify Loops
This gives focus for interventions
Even number of 'negative' effects: Snowball
Odd: Stabilizing

21. Where are the loops?
Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Customer Workload
satisfaction
Probability that Defects Corners Pressure
promises will be cut to deliver
fulfilled
Design
Time needed for defects debt
and new features

22. Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Customer Workload
satisfaction
Probability that Defects Corners Pressure
promises will be cut to deliver
fulfilled
Design
Time needed for defects debt
and new features

23. Step 5 - Simplify
Remove Variables and Relations

24. What causes this?
Customers
– don't have a choice – well, that's what they think
– afraid to speak up and put up with it
– the product is really not that important
Developers try to make the best of it
– pride in craftsmanship over early escalation
Managers want to score
– escalation / early transparency equals losing face

25. However
Sooner or later, the system will collapse
People burn out
Developers leave
Customers give up

26. Step 6 - Identify possible
interventions
Add Management Decision
A B
Remove Variable Add Variable
Defects
?

27. What would you do to recover from this
situation?

28. Use a 'gate'
Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Customer Workload
satisfaction
Probability that Defects Corners Pressure
promises will be cut to deliver
fulfilled
Design
Time needed for defects debt
and new features

29. Developers say 'no'
Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Customer Workload
satisfaction
Probability that Defects Corners Pressure
promises will be cut to deliver
fulfilled
Design
Time needed for defects debt
and new features

30. Don't overpromise
Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Customer Workload
satisfaction
Probability that Defects Corners Pressure
promises will be cut to deliver
fulfilled
Design
Time needed for defects debt
and new features

31. Recover
Features Customer Planned
promised expectations features
Code
Customer Review Workload
satisfaction
Probability that Defects Corners Pressure
promises will be cut to deliver
fulfilled
Design
Time needed for defects debt
and new features

32. Higher level interventions (1)
Work on a clear product vision
– product boxes
– release early
Shield team from customer interruptions
– no let's just do this
– customer proxy / product owner / product manager

33. Higher level interventions (2)
Use more 'places to intervene in a system'
– but not too many
Change mental models – what is development now?
– change the cultural pattern

34. Creating a diagram of effects
1. tell the story
− ask questions, determine scope and focus question
2. collect variables
− observable or measurable
− behaviour over time
3. determine cause effect relations
4. look for loops
− reinforcing, stabilizing
5. simplify
− 7 ± 2 variables - remove unrelated variables
− split up the diagram
6. identify possible interventions

35. Systems thinking in practice
Pitfall: it's only the perception of the group that
makes the diagram
Involvement leads to buy-in for interventions
Diagram helps to explain it to others
It's all about storytelling
The diagram is a nice by-product
Don't obsess over your models

36. It's not just a ... problem
difficult issues are technical,
organizational and managerial
all at once
linear cause-effect
thinking is not enough
root causes are usually
systemic
blaming someone else
does not solve it

37. We need to look at
the whole system

38. Seriously

39. Background
Gerald M. Weinberg, Quality Software Management Vol. 1-4
Peter M. Senge, The Fifth Discipline (1993)
Linda Booth Sweeney & Dennis Meadows, Systems Thinking
Playbook (1995)
Poppendieck, Implementing Lean Software Development (2006)
Kent Beck, eXtreme Programming Explained (1999)
Donella H. Meadows, Places to Intervene in a System (1997)
www.developerdotstar.com/mag/articles/places_intervene_system.html
Marc Evers & Willem van den Ende, Promise is Debt (2008)
www.systemsthinking.net/publications/promise_is_debt_6-2-2008.pdf

40. Credits
wicked weather by alexdecarvalho - flickr.com/photos/adc/423172478/
Point! by Lisamarie Babik - flickr.com/photos/78453620@N00/1448178195
Earth, courtesy Apollo 17, and probably the most reproduced image of all time by
woodleywonderworks - flickr.com/photos/wwworks/2222548359/in/photostream/
Our Milky Way Galaxy.. by Sir Mervs - flickr.com/photos/14150482@N02/2544902240
WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT? by nolifebeforecoffee - flickr.com/photos/55279617@N00/124659356
Artistic Wormhole by Steve Jurvetson - flickr.com/photos/44124348109@N01/2490285058
Measuring time © aussiegall - flickr.com/photos/aussiegall/286709039/
New Year's Resolution: 36/365 by Sasha Wolff – flickr.com/photos/27786290@N05/3171917389
dog on treadmill by Anne Norman – flickr.com/photos/29278394@N00/23844169
Free Loopy Colorful Background Wallpaper Creative Commons by D. Sharon Pruitt –
flickr.com/photos/40645538@N00/447277429
Baker Hotel (half of it!) by Justin Cozart - flickr.com/photos/40011478@N00/2296478479
Which way? by Kevin Dooley – flickr.com/photos/12836528@N00/2445707568
Flickr images were collected using QWAN Labs PhotoSuggest - labs.qwan.it/photosuggest