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Introduction to Risk Management for
Project Management
Alain LeBlanc, CD, B. Eng., M. Sc., M. Eng.
November 14th, 2011
CSVA Annual Conference
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Overview
• The presentation will cover the different aspects of risk management
process from risk identification, assessment to mitigation plan.
• Risk assessment will focus primarily on a semi-quantitative
approach estimating the risk impact in terms of recurring cost,
schedule and other value criteria of the product or project.
schedule and other value criteria of the product or project.
Lecturer Background – Alain LeBlanc
Graduate from the Royal Military College of Canada in Mechanical Engineering, with post-
graduate studies at Queen’s and McGill Universities. Three-year as assistant professor in
engineering at the Royal Military College of Canada.
Over 30 years of experience in value engineering, risk and project management in the Canadian
Forces, in large utility projects and in aerospace product development and supply chain
management. Presently assuming the responsibility of Production Readiness Manager as part of
management. Presently assuming the responsibility of Production Readiness Manager as part of
a new program operation management team at Pratt & Whitney Canada.
Member of the CSVA since its foundation in 1993 and held different board positions including four
years as president. CSVA Annual Conference chairman in 1998, 1999 and 2003.
Recipient of the SAVE International Award Best Paper of the Year in 2006 and the President’s
Citation in 2004.
RISK Management
Overview
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
‘To win without risk is to triumph without glory.’
-Pierre Corneil (French author)
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
Alignment with PMI Book of Knowledge
1. Introduction to risk
management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
Risk
Management
Risk
Identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
Reference: PMI Book of Knowledge, 1996
Risk
Quantification
Risk Response
Development
Risk Response
Control
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
Overview
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘If you don’t risk anything, you risk even more’
- Erica Jong (American writer and feminist 1950’s)
Notions of Risk
What is risk?
‘Risk is the level of exposure to uncertainties that the enterprise
must understand and effectively manage as it executes its
strategies to achieve its business objectives and create value”
strategies to achieve its business objectives and create value”
(Unknown source)
Uncertainties! The key word in risk management!
Uncertainties (risk items)
• Uncertainty are any project activity, event or design element for
which success is not guaranteed.
• Or simply… the possibility of not delivering what we’ve planned
to deliver.
to deliver.
• Risks can be external and internal
– Internal : uncertainties that project can control
– External : beyond the control of the project
Known and Unknown Uncertainties
• Known known’s ; these uncertainties that one has the knowledge to
properly predict the outcome of the project deliverable (s)
– The project is a complete repeat of the previous one
• Known unknown’s
– The most common area of risk management. This is also a typical area
of project management where project, for example, is launched without
an appropriate level of readiness.
Total uncertainty
an appropriate level of readiness.
• Unknown known’s
– These uncertainties where one has not investigate or search for the
knowledge base, internally or externally, that could affect either
negatively or positively a project.
• Unknown unknown’s
– Context in which there is no historical knowledge – AIDS is a good
example when it was first known
Is RISK good? or bad?
• We must promote the ability to look at risk as challenge, or
opportunity, and take on more risk
• Risk management is not about risk elimination by canceling
projects, or other initiatives, but about taking measured risks
projects, or other initiatives, but about taking measured risks
• Risk management serves the purpose of supporting decision
making and setting right and achievable objectives
What is RISK Management ?
• A simple terms, it is answering to these sample questions:
– What could go wrong? What could we miss?
– How severe is it?
– What can be we do about it?
– What can be we do about it?
– How do I make this work in my business?
Risk management does not have to be complicated!
‘The systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and
responding to project risks. It includes maximizing the
probability and consequences of positive events and minimizing
the probability and consequences of adverse events to project
Project RISK Management?
objectives.’(PMI Book of Knowledge, 1996)
The fundamental about project risk management is to know
when to take risk as a Project Manager, to know if the risk is
acceptable or unacceptable?
Overview
1. Introduction to RISK management
2. RISK management planning
3. RISK identification
4. RISK assessment
5. RISK response
6. RISK control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. RISK references
‘The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.’
-Jawaharlal Nehru (First Prime Minister of Independent India)
Risk Management Organization
• Risk management flow down structure
• Risk categorization assigned
• Clear roles and responsibilities
• Mechanisms of risk evaluation and
Corporate Policy
prevention in place
• Go no-go decision making gated
process
• Available tools and methodologies
• Corporate knowledge system
Program / Business
Procedure
Work Instruction
RISK Management Planning
• Process Planning
– Perspective, stakeholders, procedures, etc.
Process Planning Risk Review Risk Tracking Process Review
• Risk Review
– Identify, qualify, quantify
– Risk Response : Avoid, mitigate, transfer, accept
• Risk Tracking
– Execute response plans
• Process Review
– Performance metrics, response effectiveness
– Assess investment outcome
RISK R&R in Project Management
• Project manager
– Is accountable for the risk management process
– Set risk management direction
– Integrate risk management with other project management activities
• Project team members
• Project team members
– Perform the risk management activities
– Report status on risk events
• Risk management process owner
– Ensure risk management standard across projects
– Seek, develop and implement risk management tools
– Provide training
– Monitor risk management process performance
Overview
1. Introduction to risk management
2. RISK management planning
3. RISK identification
4. RISK assessment
5. RISK response
6. RISK control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. RISK references
‘There are things known, and there are things unknown. And between are the doors.’
- Jim Morrison
RISK Identification
• Identification of potential risk events that may affect any project,
using a consistent and structured approach
• Essentially, one should ask questions about potential uncertainties
as follows:
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
– IF something occurs… then what …
• Ensure description is clear for next process steps to avoid the
following situations : Who said what? What does this mean?
Early, at all levels, regularly
Examples
• IF the supply of goods are not available on time to be transported before the
thawing season, THEN we will need to find another more costly
transportation alternative
• IF the endurance test failed, THEN we will need to use a more sophisticated
material
• IF the environmental studies require further debate than planned, THEN we
could face significant delay in the construction schedule
RISK Identification
How to do it?
• Brainstorming
• Surveys and questionnaires
• Surveys and questionnaires
• Interviews and focus groups
• Delphi technique
• Lessons learned review
• SWOT Analysis
Brainstorming
Excellent team approach to risk identification. It allows the group to
ventilate their concerns.
Some of the rules are:
• No judgment or evaluation during idea generation
• Everyone contributes
• Get to the point
• Quantity over Quality
• All ideas are welcome
• Build on ideas
Delphi Technique
• Acquiring expert judgement on matter without forcing them outside
their comfort zone
• Based on an iterative set of questionnaires to achieve convergence
on specific subjects
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
• Normally used when experts are geographically distant and that
project schedule allows it
• Used when a handful of people knows about a specific subject
Very accurate qualitative approach to risk review
SWOT Analysis
• Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat (SWOT) analysis is a
useful summary technique for summarising the key issues arising
from an assessment of a businesses "internal" position and
"external" environmental influences.
What are the strengths of
your product or business
processes?
What are the weaknesses
compared to competition or
from your market feedback?
Weakness
Strength
What are the opportunities
that the business could
explore?
What are the potential
exposures from the
competition?
Threat
Opportunity
RISK Identification
Some inputs to a structured risk identification:
• WBS (prime input for project)
• Product Specification (prime for product)
• SOW
9
8
• SOW
• Scope statement
• Readiness Index
• Cost and schedule estimates
• Internal guidelines
• Others
Technology
Supply Chain
……….
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
RISK Register
• A risk register is a repository tool for recording and consolidating risk
events and their subsequent assessment and response.
• Must be initiated at the start of the of the risk management process
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
– Risk data becomes project information
– Project information becomes corporate knowledge
– Corporate knowledge is documented and preserved in corporate
project files for future reference
RISK Register
Risk Number Category
WBS No.
or other
WBS
Element
Source Date
Uncerntainty
Name
Description
Project A - 001 Development 23 Road Test
Date
identified
Compressor
endurance test
IF the endurance test failed, THEN we will need
to use a more sophisticated material
Date
IF the environmental studies require further
The risk register starts with the risk identification
Project A - 002 Construction 54 Road Environment
Date
identified
IF the environmental studies require further
debate than planned, THEN we could face
significant delay in the construction schedule
Project A - 003 Aftermarket 57 Controls Supplier
Date
identified
Project A - 004 Construction 32 Machinery
Human
Resources
Date
identified
Project A - 005 Construction 24 Component Supplier
Date
identified
Transportation of
heavy stock
IF the supply of goods are not available on time
to be transported before the thawing season,
THEN we will need to find another more costly
transportation alternative
Project A - 006 etc. etc etc etc
Date
identified
RISK Identification
What to avoid?
• Identification of issues rather than uncertainties
• Focusing on the importance rather than uncertainties of the subject
• Poor script - lack of proper description
• Not allowing sufficient time for the process
• Lack of a structure approach
• Red herring issues
• Not waring a RISK hat
Overview
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘Courageous risks are life-giving, they help you grow, make you brave, and better
than you think you are.’
-Anomymous
Risk Levels : New Automobile Design
What would you act on ? In which order ?
… a 0.5% chance of not meeting highway safety tests
… a 25% chance of not meeting original deadline for delivery to dealers
… a 75% chance we will exceed weight target (by 50 to 100 lbs)
… a 75% chance we will exceed weight target (by 50 to 100 lbs)
… a 99% chance of not meeting passenger cabin height (0.5 inchshort of
target) (Routhier & Delisle, 2001)
RISK Assessment
The process of analysing and evaluating risk, to
determine the likelihood of an uncertainty to occur
and the impact it will cause to the business plan
RISK Qualitative Assessment
1. Clean up your risk item list
• Ensure risk items cannot be broken further down
2. Priority list based on the team experience and knowledge
• Qualitative : high (red), medium (yellow) and low (green)
• Normally based on the impact on the project
• Normally based on the impact on the project
• Highly influenced from lessons learned
• Can be very influential
3. Visual forms to communicate risk issues
Note: Difficult to quantify the impact in terms of cost
exposure, delay, …
RISK Quantitative Assessment
1. For each uncertainty,
– establish a success plan (also called plan A), what is the planned
successful outcome?
– establish a fall-back plan (also called plan B), what is the plan if plan A
cannot be achieved with the current resources and other associated
cannot be achieved with the current resources and other associated
criteria?
2. Determine likelihood of failure of plan A.
3. Determine severity of failure for reverting to plan B.
Risk = Likelihood of failure X Severity of failure
Likelihood of Failure
• Likelihood of failure is dependent on the readiness to meet the set
expectations
• Questioning against the following four potential “gaps” is generally
a good quantitative probability assessment of most situations:
– Knowledge of requirements
– Stability of requirements
– Capability to deliver
– Capacity to deliver
Likelihood of Failure Matrix
Knowledge of
requirements
Stability of requirements Capability to deliver Capacity to deliver
Improbable
Remote
<5%
Requirements are based
on international standards
Requirements are entirely
within current experience
Supplier has adequate
Considering Plan A, and with respect to your customer, organization or your suppliers, ask ... ?
Unlikely 25
Supplier has adequate
capacity and resources
available
Likely 50%
Major expectations are
stable and frozen in
specifications or SOW
Very Likely 75%
Requirements are not
clearly written and
understood
Knowledge is available
but as never been
applied to that extent
Certain 90%
Product or product
expectations are volatile
There are critical
resources not allocated or
available
Requirements : Customer and social needs, market demand, etc
Severity of Failure
• How will failure to address the uncertainty affect the project or
product value?
• Link to critical project or product value elements and their relative
importance to the customer:
– Schedule
– Schedule
– Investment cost
– Recurring Cost
– Product or Service Performance
– Cost of non-Quality
– Customer or contractual penalty
– …
Severity of Failure
Little Negligible Marginal Significant Critical
min max min max min max min max More than…
Project Schedule Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Investment Cost Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Product recurring cost Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Product performance Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Cost of non quality Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Customer penality Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Uncertainty
Name
Description Plan A Plan B
Uncertainty 1 Description 1 Plan A1 Plan B1
Certain
Likely
Certain
Significant
Marginal
High
Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2
Likely
Certain
Critical
Critical High
Impact
Risk
Level
Customer
penality
Other
Likelihood
of Failure
Project
Schedule
Investment
Cost
Product
recurring
cost
Product
performance
Likelihood Matrix Impact Matrix
Knowledge
of
requirements
Stability
of
requirements
Capability
to
deliver
Capacity
to
deliver
RISK Quantitative Assessment
Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2
Likely
Certain
Critical
Critical High
Uncertainty 3 Description 3 Plan A3 Plan B3
Very
Likely
Very Likely
Marginal
Negligeable
Medium
Uncertainty 4 Description 4 Plan A4 Plan B4
Improbable
Improbable
Critical
Medium
Define Plan A Define Plan B
Uncertainty
Name
Description Plan A Plan B
Uncertainty 1 Description 1 Plan A1 Plan B1
Certain
Likely
Certain
Significant
Marginal
High
Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2
Likely
Certain
Critical
Critical High
Impact
Risk
Level
Customer
penality
Other
Likelihood
of Failure
Project
Schedule
Investment
Cost
Product
recurring
cost
Product
performance
Likelihood Matrix Impact Matrix
Knowledge
of
requirements
Stability
of
requirements
Capability
to
deliver
Capacity
to
deliver
RISK Quantitative Assessment
Certain
M M H H H
Very
likely
L M M H H
Likely
L L M M H
Unlikely
L L L M M
Im
probable
L L L L M
Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical
RISK Map
Impact
Likelihood
Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2
Likely
Certain
Critical
Critical High
Uncertainty 3 Description 3 Plan A3 Plan B3
Very
Likely
Very Likely
Marginal
Negligeable
Medium
Uncertainty 4 Description 4 Plan A4 Plan B4
Improbable
Improbable
Critical
Medium
Define the likelihood of failure Define the impact of going to Plan B
RISK Level Determination
• Use the larger likelihood and
larger impact against each
uncertainty
• Establish your 2-D Risk Map
Certain
M M H H H
Very
likely
L M M H H
Likely
L L M M H
RISK Map
Likelihood
• Establish your 2-D Risk Map
model with the corresponding
intersecting colour coded risk
level areas
Likely
L L M M H
Unlikely
L L L M M
Improbable
L L L L M
Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical
Impact
Likelihood
RISK Map
• Very powerful to summarize
project situation
– Seeing the forest Vs. trees
• Outstanding communication
tool
Certain
M M H H H
Very
likely
L M M H H
Likely
L L M M H
RISK Map
Likelihood
tool
• Can be aligned with customer
or stakeholder requirements
Likely
L L M M H
Unlikely
L L L M M
Improbable
L L L L M
Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical
Impact
Likelihood
RISK Quantification Approach
Cost Risk Exposure
• The summation of all expected monetary values for assessed
uncertainties
uncertainties
• Expected monetary value is the multiplication of the probability of a
risk to occur and its monetary impact
• All uncertainties can be translated into cost or other measure
• Opportunities are also part of the analysis. Their monetary impacts
are called LEVERAGE
RISK Quantitative Assessment
Recurring Cost Risk Exposure
(and Sensitivity Analysis)
• Determine the risk exposure
equivalency factor using a
business case sensitivity curve.
IRR (%)
business case sensitivity curve.
Ex.: investment cost increase of
$130,000 can be translated into an
equivalent recurring cost increase of
$5 over a period of 10 years.
Recurring Cost
Investment Cost
(+)
(-)
Course structure
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.’
- General George S. Patton)
RISK Response
• How to react to risks and opportunities when identified and
assessed
• Response plan will depend upon the types of risk, policy and
procedure
procedure
• Response priority is driven by the risk map
• Risk response plans are integrated into the project plan
• Risk response plan may affect more than one risk item
Risk Response Type
• Avoid
• Transfer
• Mitigate
• Mitigate
• Accept
RISK Avoidance
• Selecting a lower risk options or
simply removing the item from the
deliverable
– If we have to accept the risk, what
1
2
3
7
?
contingency strategies are available?
– How could we avoid this event?
• This is particularly pertinent to
uncertainties situated into the risk
map RED area
RISK Mitigation
• Mitigating risk is about taking specific actions to reduce risk, i.e.,
– Reducing the probability of the risk event happening?
– Reducing the impact of the risk event on the business?
• Mitigation plans must be integrated into project plan
• If RED risks are identified at project start, cost and schedule contingency
must be accounted for
• All RED and YELLOW risks should have mitigation plans, if risk avoidance
is not established
Risk Waterfall Chart
• Visual tool to depict risk
closure
• Very useful in project reporting
• Can be demonstrated in terms
Risk waterfall chart
3
4
5
Activities
• Can be demonstrated in terms
of activities or dates
• Easy to construct without
sophisticated tool
0
1
2
2
0
0
9
-
1
1
-
2
3
2
0
0
9
-
1
1
-
3
0
2
0
0
9
-
1
2
-
0
7
2
0
0
9
-
1
2
-
1
4
2
0
0
9
-
1
2
-
2
1
2
0
0
9
-
1
2
-
2
8
2
0
1
0
-
0
1
-
0
4
2
0
1
0
-
0
1
-
1
1
2
0
1
0
-
0
1
-
1
8
2
0
1
0
-
0
1
-
2
5
2
0
1
0
-
0
2
-
0
1
2
0
1
0
-
0
2
-
0
8
2
0
1
0
-
0
2
-
1
5
2
0
1
0
-
0
2
-
2
2
2
0
1
0
-
0
3
-
0
1
2
0
1
0
-
0
3
-
0
8
2
0
1
0
-
0
3
-
1
5
2
0
1
0
-
0
3
-
2
2
2
0
1
0
-
0
3
-
2
9
2
0
1
0
-
0
4
-
0
5
2
0
1
0
-
0
4
-
1
2
2
0
1
0
-
0
4
-
1
9
RISK Transfer
• Risk transfer is about shifting the risk to another party (through law, contract
or insurance)
• Partnership is one of the key strategies used for large investment projects
• Risks can also be transferred to:
• Risks can also be transferred to:
– Sub-contractors
– Vendors
– Customers
– Government
• Risk transfer does mean risk is eliminated. Mitigation plans will be required
but managed by the third party
RISK Acceptance
• Risk acceptance is about moving forward, passively or actively, with the
potential that a risk could occur, without risk attenuation measure
• The assumption is that the project or the organization will deal with the
issue if it arises. Normally, one is assuming that the risk will be managed
issue if it arises. Normally, one is assuming that the risk will be managed
and will disappear
• If risk occurs, contingency reserves will be used. This can be detrimental to
a business as it precludes risk management as a key process
Contingency Reserve
• Contingency reserve : the amount of money or time needed above
the estimate to reduce the risk of overruns of project objectives to a
level that is acceptable to the organization (PMI 1996)
– High risk uncertainty exposures are used to estimate contingencies
– Medium risk uncertainty exposures should also be taking into
consideration
– Contingency reserve must be included in the project budget and
schedule
Management Reserve
• Management reserve : an amount of money set aside for
management that is a proportion of contingency reserves from all
projects
• Management reserve is at the discretion of upper management and
is set up to deal with uncertainties such as inflation rate, exchange
rate prediction, etc
RISK Response
What to avoid?
• Maintain high risk uncertainties in the equation
• Manage mitigation plans apart from other plans
• Manage mitigation plans apart from other plans
– Integrate into project schedule
• Report on plans for sake of reporting
• Lack of real detail planning
• Carry unnecessary contingency
Course structure
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
RISK Control and Feedback
• The process of executing the risk management plan. It also
includes the response if known or unknown risks or opportunities
occur
• Identify areas where risk or opportunity was not identified and why?
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
• Identify areas where risk or opportunity was not identified and why?
• Document events and action taken
• Review the assessment methodology. Was risk understated?
• Assess the response plans effectiveness
• Secure the lessons learned
RISK Control and Feedback
Workaround
• Actions associated to crisis management, reacting to unplanned
events
• Contingency and management reserves will provide a source of
support
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
support
Modification to planned response plan
• Closely monitoring of response plan and re-assessment of known
risks and opportunities are part of project management activities
Course structure
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.’
-Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)
RISK Management Overview
Risk
is a measure of the
possibility of deviation from
the expected
Risk Map
Certain
M M H H H
Very
likely
L M M H H
Likely
L L M M H
Unlikely
L L L M M
Improbable
RISK Map
Likelihood
1
4
2
3
5
6
7
8
9 10
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
Risk Management
is a discipline for
dealing with uncertainty
the expected
• Risk Assessment
• Response Plans
• Risk Waterfalls
• Feedback
Improbable
L L L L M
Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical
Impact
Conclusions
• Times are hard, money is tightly controlled
• Customer want new products faster and with entry-into-service
risk free
• Cost plus projects are passé
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
• Risk process must be applied at launch
• Integrate response plans with the project plan
• Drive and track with rigour
At the end, you do not want to be the one bringing the bad news!
Course structure
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.’
-Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)
Computer Software and Applications
• Decision analysis tool
– @RISK
– Precision Tree
– Expert Choice
– VISA (Visual Thinking International Ltd)
– HIVIEW
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
– EQUITY
– Risk Plus
• (Project) Risk Management Tool
– Risk Cost Model
– RiskTrak ARM Process™
– NOWECO PRO Act 3.3, Risk Register, and others
– ProjectConnection`s applications
– ------
References
1. Anonymous, Integrated Risk management, Implementation Guide, Treasury Board of Canada, ISBN 0-662-
65673-3, 2001, 102 pp.
2. Anonymous, Risk Management Course, Project Management Professional Development Program, ESI
International in association with The George Washington University, 2001
3. Anonymous, Risk Management Standard, published in UK by the Institute of Risk Management (IRM), the
Association of Insurance and Risk Managers (AIRMIC), and ALARM The National Forum For Risk
Management, © ALARM AIRMIC IRM, 2002, 15 p.
4. Anonymous, DoD Handbook MIL-HDBK-500A, Supplier processes for suppliers processes for aviation and
space sectors. Acquistion and sustaining programs, Department of Defense, USA, Jan 99, 31 p.
5. Bleasdale, Tom. J., The Risk of Change, Mott MacDonald Limited (Hatch Mott MacDonald, SAVE International
Conference, Jun 03
6. Charette, Robert N., Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management, New York : Intertext Publication,
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
6. Charette, Robert N., Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management, New York : Intertext Publication,
McGraw-Hill, 1989, pp 120-122.
7. Duncan , William R., Director of Standards, PMI Standards Committee, A Guide to the Project Management
Book of Knowledge, PMI, 1996, 178 p.
8. Goodwin ,Paul and George Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, Second Edition, John Wiley
& Sons, 1998, 454 p.
9. A John Hitchings and Scott Wilson, Risk Assessment, ICE Management Board and Commercial Management
Board Briefing, Apr 02
10. Kloman, H. Felix, Risk Management Reports, H. Felix Kloman and Seawrack Press, 2003-06
11. John Hitchings and Scott Wilson, ICE Management Board and Commercial Management Board Briefing, Risk
Assessment, Apr 02
12. Phillips, Martyn, A value and risk management approach to project development, proceeding of ICE, Civil
Engineering 150, May 02, pp 67-74
13. Carl L. Pritchard, Risk Management, Concepts and Guidance, Second Edition, ESI International, 2001, 342 pp.
14. Routhier, Pierre-Hugues and Eric Delisle, Risk Management - Overview of Risk Theory and its Applications in
VE, CSVA Annual Conference, Toronto, Oct. 01
15. Swarz, Bob, Guidelines for Risk Management Process Review, MITRE Society, 12 Dec 07
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009

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Introduction to risk management

  • 1. Introduction to Risk Management for Project Management Alain LeBlanc, CD, B. Eng., M. Sc., M. Eng. November 14th, 2011 CSVA Annual Conference Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • 2. Overview • The presentation will cover the different aspects of risk management process from risk identification, assessment to mitigation plan. • Risk assessment will focus primarily on a semi-quantitative approach estimating the risk impact in terms of recurring cost, schedule and other value criteria of the product or project. schedule and other value criteria of the product or project.
  • 3. Lecturer Background – Alain LeBlanc Graduate from the Royal Military College of Canada in Mechanical Engineering, with post- graduate studies at Queen’s and McGill Universities. Three-year as assistant professor in engineering at the Royal Military College of Canada. Over 30 years of experience in value engineering, risk and project management in the Canadian Forces, in large utility projects and in aerospace product development and supply chain management. Presently assuming the responsibility of Production Readiness Manager as part of management. Presently assuming the responsibility of Production Readiness Manager as part of a new program operation management team at Pratt & Whitney Canada. Member of the CSVA since its foundation in 1993 and held different board positions including four years as president. CSVA Annual Conference chairman in 1998, 1999 and 2003. Recipient of the SAVE International Award Best Paper of the Year in 2006 and the President’s Citation in 2004.
  • 5. Overview 1. Introduction to risk management 2. Risk management planning 3. Risk identification 4. Risk assessment 5. Risk response ‘To win without risk is to triumph without glory.’ -Pierre Corneil (French author) 5. Risk response 6. Risk control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. Risk references
  • 6. Alignment with PMI Book of Knowledge 1. Introduction to risk management 2. Risk management planning 3. Risk identification 4. Risk assessment Risk Management Risk Identification 4. Risk assessment 5. Risk response 6. Risk control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. Risk references Reference: PMI Book of Knowledge, 1996 Risk Quantification Risk Response Development Risk Response Control
  • 7. 1. Introduction to risk management 2. Risk management planning 3. Risk identification 4. Risk assessment 5. Risk response Overview 5. Risk response 6. Risk control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. Risk references ‘If you don’t risk anything, you risk even more’ - Erica Jong (American writer and feminist 1950’s)
  • 8.
  • 9. Notions of Risk What is risk? ‘Risk is the level of exposure to uncertainties that the enterprise must understand and effectively manage as it executes its strategies to achieve its business objectives and create value” strategies to achieve its business objectives and create value” (Unknown source) Uncertainties! The key word in risk management!
  • 10. Uncertainties (risk items) • Uncertainty are any project activity, event or design element for which success is not guaranteed. • Or simply… the possibility of not delivering what we’ve planned to deliver. to deliver. • Risks can be external and internal – Internal : uncertainties that project can control – External : beyond the control of the project
  • 11. Known and Unknown Uncertainties • Known known’s ; these uncertainties that one has the knowledge to properly predict the outcome of the project deliverable (s) – The project is a complete repeat of the previous one • Known unknown’s – The most common area of risk management. This is also a typical area of project management where project, for example, is launched without an appropriate level of readiness. Total uncertainty an appropriate level of readiness. • Unknown known’s – These uncertainties where one has not investigate or search for the knowledge base, internally or externally, that could affect either negatively or positively a project. • Unknown unknown’s – Context in which there is no historical knowledge – AIDS is a good example when it was first known
  • 12. Is RISK good? or bad? • We must promote the ability to look at risk as challenge, or opportunity, and take on more risk • Risk management is not about risk elimination by canceling projects, or other initiatives, but about taking measured risks projects, or other initiatives, but about taking measured risks • Risk management serves the purpose of supporting decision making and setting right and achievable objectives
  • 13. What is RISK Management ? • A simple terms, it is answering to these sample questions: – What could go wrong? What could we miss? – How severe is it? – What can be we do about it? – What can be we do about it? – How do I make this work in my business? Risk management does not have to be complicated!
  • 14. ‘The systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risks. It includes maximizing the probability and consequences of positive events and minimizing the probability and consequences of adverse events to project Project RISK Management? objectives.’(PMI Book of Knowledge, 1996) The fundamental about project risk management is to know when to take risk as a Project Manager, to know if the risk is acceptable or unacceptable?
  • 15. Overview 1. Introduction to RISK management 2. RISK management planning 3. RISK identification 4. RISK assessment 5. RISK response 6. RISK control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. RISK references ‘The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.’ -Jawaharlal Nehru (First Prime Minister of Independent India)
  • 16. Risk Management Organization • Risk management flow down structure • Risk categorization assigned • Clear roles and responsibilities • Mechanisms of risk evaluation and Corporate Policy prevention in place • Go no-go decision making gated process • Available tools and methodologies • Corporate knowledge system Program / Business Procedure Work Instruction
  • 17. RISK Management Planning • Process Planning – Perspective, stakeholders, procedures, etc. Process Planning Risk Review Risk Tracking Process Review • Risk Review – Identify, qualify, quantify – Risk Response : Avoid, mitigate, transfer, accept • Risk Tracking – Execute response plans • Process Review – Performance metrics, response effectiveness – Assess investment outcome
  • 18. RISK R&R in Project Management • Project manager – Is accountable for the risk management process – Set risk management direction – Integrate risk management with other project management activities • Project team members • Project team members – Perform the risk management activities – Report status on risk events • Risk management process owner – Ensure risk management standard across projects – Seek, develop and implement risk management tools – Provide training – Monitor risk management process performance
  • 19. Overview 1. Introduction to risk management 2. RISK management planning 3. RISK identification 4. RISK assessment 5. RISK response 6. RISK control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. RISK references ‘There are things known, and there are things unknown. And between are the doors.’ - Jim Morrison
  • 20. RISK Identification • Identification of potential risk events that may affect any project, using a consistent and structured approach • Essentially, one should ask questions about potential uncertainties as follows: Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 – IF something occurs… then what … • Ensure description is clear for next process steps to avoid the following situations : Who said what? What does this mean? Early, at all levels, regularly
  • 21. Examples • IF the supply of goods are not available on time to be transported before the thawing season, THEN we will need to find another more costly transportation alternative • IF the endurance test failed, THEN we will need to use a more sophisticated material • IF the environmental studies require further debate than planned, THEN we could face significant delay in the construction schedule
  • 22. RISK Identification How to do it? • Brainstorming • Surveys and questionnaires • Surveys and questionnaires • Interviews and focus groups • Delphi technique • Lessons learned review • SWOT Analysis
  • 23. Brainstorming Excellent team approach to risk identification. It allows the group to ventilate their concerns. Some of the rules are: • No judgment or evaluation during idea generation • Everyone contributes • Get to the point • Quantity over Quality • All ideas are welcome • Build on ideas
  • 24. Delphi Technique • Acquiring expert judgement on matter without forcing them outside their comfort zone • Based on an iterative set of questionnaires to achieve convergence on specific subjects Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 • Normally used when experts are geographically distant and that project schedule allows it • Used when a handful of people knows about a specific subject Very accurate qualitative approach to risk review
  • 25. SWOT Analysis • Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat (SWOT) analysis is a useful summary technique for summarising the key issues arising from an assessment of a businesses "internal" position and "external" environmental influences. What are the strengths of your product or business processes? What are the weaknesses compared to competition or from your market feedback? Weakness Strength What are the opportunities that the business could explore? What are the potential exposures from the competition? Threat Opportunity
  • 26. RISK Identification Some inputs to a structured risk identification: • WBS (prime input for project) • Product Specification (prime for product) • SOW 9 8 • SOW • Scope statement • Readiness Index • Cost and schedule estimates • Internal guidelines • Others Technology Supply Chain ………. 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
  • 27. RISK Register • A risk register is a repository tool for recording and consolidating risk events and their subsequent assessment and response. • Must be initiated at the start of the of the risk management process Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 – Risk data becomes project information – Project information becomes corporate knowledge – Corporate knowledge is documented and preserved in corporate project files for future reference
  • 28. RISK Register Risk Number Category WBS No. or other WBS Element Source Date Uncerntainty Name Description Project A - 001 Development 23 Road Test Date identified Compressor endurance test IF the endurance test failed, THEN we will need to use a more sophisticated material Date IF the environmental studies require further The risk register starts with the risk identification Project A - 002 Construction 54 Road Environment Date identified IF the environmental studies require further debate than planned, THEN we could face significant delay in the construction schedule Project A - 003 Aftermarket 57 Controls Supplier Date identified Project A - 004 Construction 32 Machinery Human Resources Date identified Project A - 005 Construction 24 Component Supplier Date identified Transportation of heavy stock IF the supply of goods are not available on time to be transported before the thawing season, THEN we will need to find another more costly transportation alternative Project A - 006 etc. etc etc etc Date identified
  • 29. RISK Identification What to avoid? • Identification of issues rather than uncertainties • Focusing on the importance rather than uncertainties of the subject • Poor script - lack of proper description • Not allowing sufficient time for the process • Lack of a structure approach • Red herring issues • Not waring a RISK hat
  • 30. Overview 1. Introduction to risk management 2. Risk management planning 3. Risk identification 4. Risk assessment 5. Risk response 6. Risk control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. Risk references ‘Courageous risks are life-giving, they help you grow, make you brave, and better than you think you are.’ -Anomymous
  • 31. Risk Levels : New Automobile Design What would you act on ? In which order ? … a 0.5% chance of not meeting highway safety tests … a 25% chance of not meeting original deadline for delivery to dealers … a 75% chance we will exceed weight target (by 50 to 100 lbs) … a 75% chance we will exceed weight target (by 50 to 100 lbs) … a 99% chance of not meeting passenger cabin height (0.5 inchshort of target) (Routhier & Delisle, 2001)
  • 32. RISK Assessment The process of analysing and evaluating risk, to determine the likelihood of an uncertainty to occur and the impact it will cause to the business plan
  • 33. RISK Qualitative Assessment 1. Clean up your risk item list • Ensure risk items cannot be broken further down 2. Priority list based on the team experience and knowledge • Qualitative : high (red), medium (yellow) and low (green) • Normally based on the impact on the project • Normally based on the impact on the project • Highly influenced from lessons learned • Can be very influential 3. Visual forms to communicate risk issues Note: Difficult to quantify the impact in terms of cost exposure, delay, …
  • 34. RISK Quantitative Assessment 1. For each uncertainty, – establish a success plan (also called plan A), what is the planned successful outcome? – establish a fall-back plan (also called plan B), what is the plan if plan A cannot be achieved with the current resources and other associated cannot be achieved with the current resources and other associated criteria? 2. Determine likelihood of failure of plan A. 3. Determine severity of failure for reverting to plan B. Risk = Likelihood of failure X Severity of failure
  • 35. Likelihood of Failure • Likelihood of failure is dependent on the readiness to meet the set expectations • Questioning against the following four potential “gaps” is generally a good quantitative probability assessment of most situations: – Knowledge of requirements – Stability of requirements – Capability to deliver – Capacity to deliver
  • 36. Likelihood of Failure Matrix Knowledge of requirements Stability of requirements Capability to deliver Capacity to deliver Improbable Remote <5% Requirements are based on international standards Requirements are entirely within current experience Supplier has adequate Considering Plan A, and with respect to your customer, organization or your suppliers, ask ... ? Unlikely 25 Supplier has adequate capacity and resources available Likely 50% Major expectations are stable and frozen in specifications or SOW Very Likely 75% Requirements are not clearly written and understood Knowledge is available but as never been applied to that extent Certain 90% Product or product expectations are volatile There are critical resources not allocated or available Requirements : Customer and social needs, market demand, etc
  • 37. Severity of Failure • How will failure to address the uncertainty affect the project or product value? • Link to critical project or product value elements and their relative importance to the customer: – Schedule – Schedule – Investment cost – Recurring Cost – Product or Service Performance – Cost of non-Quality – Customer or contractual penalty – …
  • 38. Severity of Failure Little Negligible Marginal Significant Critical min max min max min max min max More than… Project Schedule Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Investment Cost Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Product recurring cost Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Product performance Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Cost of non quality Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Customer penality Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
  • 39. Uncertainty Name Description Plan A Plan B Uncertainty 1 Description 1 Plan A1 Plan B1 Certain Likely Certain Significant Marginal High Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2 Likely Certain Critical Critical High Impact Risk Level Customer penality Other Likelihood of Failure Project Schedule Investment Cost Product recurring cost Product performance Likelihood Matrix Impact Matrix Knowledge of requirements Stability of requirements Capability to deliver Capacity to deliver RISK Quantitative Assessment Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2 Likely Certain Critical Critical High Uncertainty 3 Description 3 Plan A3 Plan B3 Very Likely Very Likely Marginal Negligeable Medium Uncertainty 4 Description 4 Plan A4 Plan B4 Improbable Improbable Critical Medium Define Plan A Define Plan B
  • 40. Uncertainty Name Description Plan A Plan B Uncertainty 1 Description 1 Plan A1 Plan B1 Certain Likely Certain Significant Marginal High Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2 Likely Certain Critical Critical High Impact Risk Level Customer penality Other Likelihood of Failure Project Schedule Investment Cost Product recurring cost Product performance Likelihood Matrix Impact Matrix Knowledge of requirements Stability of requirements Capability to deliver Capacity to deliver RISK Quantitative Assessment Certain M M H H H Very likely L M M H H Likely L L M M H Unlikely L L L M M Im probable L L L L M Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical RISK Map Impact Likelihood Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2 Likely Certain Critical Critical High Uncertainty 3 Description 3 Plan A3 Plan B3 Very Likely Very Likely Marginal Negligeable Medium Uncertainty 4 Description 4 Plan A4 Plan B4 Improbable Improbable Critical Medium Define the likelihood of failure Define the impact of going to Plan B
  • 41. RISK Level Determination • Use the larger likelihood and larger impact against each uncertainty • Establish your 2-D Risk Map Certain M M H H H Very likely L M M H H Likely L L M M H RISK Map Likelihood • Establish your 2-D Risk Map model with the corresponding intersecting colour coded risk level areas Likely L L M M H Unlikely L L L M M Improbable L L L L M Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical Impact Likelihood
  • 42. RISK Map • Very powerful to summarize project situation – Seeing the forest Vs. trees • Outstanding communication tool Certain M M H H H Very likely L M M H H Likely L L M M H RISK Map Likelihood tool • Can be aligned with customer or stakeholder requirements Likely L L M M H Unlikely L L L M M Improbable L L L L M Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical Impact Likelihood
  • 43. RISK Quantification Approach Cost Risk Exposure • The summation of all expected monetary values for assessed uncertainties uncertainties • Expected monetary value is the multiplication of the probability of a risk to occur and its monetary impact • All uncertainties can be translated into cost or other measure • Opportunities are also part of the analysis. Their monetary impacts are called LEVERAGE
  • 44. RISK Quantitative Assessment Recurring Cost Risk Exposure (and Sensitivity Analysis) • Determine the risk exposure equivalency factor using a business case sensitivity curve. IRR (%) business case sensitivity curve. Ex.: investment cost increase of $130,000 can be translated into an equivalent recurring cost increase of $5 over a period of 10 years. Recurring Cost Investment Cost (+) (-)
  • 45. Course structure 1. Introduction to risk management 2. Risk management planning 3. Risk identification 4. Risk assessment 5. Risk response 6. Risk control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. Risk references ‘Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.’ - General George S. Patton)
  • 46. RISK Response • How to react to risks and opportunities when identified and assessed • Response plan will depend upon the types of risk, policy and procedure procedure • Response priority is driven by the risk map • Risk response plans are integrated into the project plan • Risk response plan may affect more than one risk item
  • 47. Risk Response Type • Avoid • Transfer • Mitigate • Mitigate • Accept
  • 48. RISK Avoidance • Selecting a lower risk options or simply removing the item from the deliverable – If we have to accept the risk, what 1 2 3 7 ? contingency strategies are available? – How could we avoid this event? • This is particularly pertinent to uncertainties situated into the risk map RED area
  • 49. RISK Mitigation • Mitigating risk is about taking specific actions to reduce risk, i.e., – Reducing the probability of the risk event happening? – Reducing the impact of the risk event on the business? • Mitigation plans must be integrated into project plan • If RED risks are identified at project start, cost and schedule contingency must be accounted for • All RED and YELLOW risks should have mitigation plans, if risk avoidance is not established
  • 50. Risk Waterfall Chart • Visual tool to depict risk closure • Very useful in project reporting • Can be demonstrated in terms Risk waterfall chart 3 4 5 Activities • Can be demonstrated in terms of activities or dates • Easy to construct without sophisticated tool 0 1 2 2 0 0 9 - 1 1 - 2 3 2 0 0 9 - 1 1 - 3 0 2 0 0 9 - 1 2 - 0 7 2 0 0 9 - 1 2 - 1 4 2 0 0 9 - 1 2 - 2 1 2 0 0 9 - 1 2 - 2 8 2 0 1 0 - 0 1 - 0 4 2 0 1 0 - 0 1 - 1 1 2 0 1 0 - 0 1 - 1 8 2 0 1 0 - 0 1 - 2 5 2 0 1 0 - 0 2 - 0 1 2 0 1 0 - 0 2 - 0 8 2 0 1 0 - 0 2 - 1 5 2 0 1 0 - 0 2 - 2 2 2 0 1 0 - 0 3 - 0 1 2 0 1 0 - 0 3 - 0 8 2 0 1 0 - 0 3 - 1 5 2 0 1 0 - 0 3 - 2 2 2 0 1 0 - 0 3 - 2 9 2 0 1 0 - 0 4 - 0 5 2 0 1 0 - 0 4 - 1 2 2 0 1 0 - 0 4 - 1 9
  • 51. RISK Transfer • Risk transfer is about shifting the risk to another party (through law, contract or insurance) • Partnership is one of the key strategies used for large investment projects • Risks can also be transferred to: • Risks can also be transferred to: – Sub-contractors – Vendors – Customers – Government • Risk transfer does mean risk is eliminated. Mitigation plans will be required but managed by the third party
  • 52. RISK Acceptance • Risk acceptance is about moving forward, passively or actively, with the potential that a risk could occur, without risk attenuation measure • The assumption is that the project or the organization will deal with the issue if it arises. Normally, one is assuming that the risk will be managed issue if it arises. Normally, one is assuming that the risk will be managed and will disappear • If risk occurs, contingency reserves will be used. This can be detrimental to a business as it precludes risk management as a key process
  • 53. Contingency Reserve • Contingency reserve : the amount of money or time needed above the estimate to reduce the risk of overruns of project objectives to a level that is acceptable to the organization (PMI 1996) – High risk uncertainty exposures are used to estimate contingencies – Medium risk uncertainty exposures should also be taking into consideration – Contingency reserve must be included in the project budget and schedule
  • 54. Management Reserve • Management reserve : an amount of money set aside for management that is a proportion of contingency reserves from all projects • Management reserve is at the discretion of upper management and is set up to deal with uncertainties such as inflation rate, exchange rate prediction, etc
  • 55. RISK Response What to avoid? • Maintain high risk uncertainties in the equation • Manage mitigation plans apart from other plans • Manage mitigation plans apart from other plans – Integrate into project schedule • Report on plans for sake of reporting • Lack of real detail planning • Carry unnecessary contingency
  • 56. Course structure 1. Introduction to risk management 2. Risk management planning 3. Risk identification 4. Risk assessment 5. Risk response Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 6. Risk control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. Risk references
  • 57. RISK Control and Feedback • The process of executing the risk management plan. It also includes the response if known or unknown risks or opportunities occur • Identify areas where risk or opportunity was not identified and why? Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 • Identify areas where risk or opportunity was not identified and why? • Document events and action taken • Review the assessment methodology. Was risk understated? • Assess the response plans effectiveness • Secure the lessons learned
  • 58. RISK Control and Feedback Workaround • Actions associated to crisis management, reacting to unplanned events • Contingency and management reserves will provide a source of support Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 support Modification to planned response plan • Closely monitoring of response plan and re-assessment of known risks and opportunities are part of project management activities
  • 59. Course structure 1. Introduction to risk management 2. Risk management planning 3. Risk identification 4. Risk assessment 5. Risk response Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 6. Risk control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. Risk references ‘I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.’ -Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)
  • 60. RISK Management Overview Risk is a measure of the possibility of deviation from the expected Risk Map Certain M M H H H Very likely L M M H H Likely L L M M H Unlikely L L L M M Improbable RISK Map Likelihood 1 4 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 Risk Management is a discipline for dealing with uncertainty the expected • Risk Assessment • Response Plans • Risk Waterfalls • Feedback Improbable L L L L M Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical Impact
  • 61. Conclusions • Times are hard, money is tightly controlled • Customer want new products faster and with entry-into-service risk free • Cost plus projects are passé Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 • Risk process must be applied at launch • Integrate response plans with the project plan • Drive and track with rigour At the end, you do not want to be the one bringing the bad news!
  • 62. Course structure 1. Introduction to risk management 2. Risk management planning 3. Risk identification 4. Risk assessment 5. Risk response Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 6. Risk control and feedback 7. Conclusions 8. Risk references ‘I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.’ -Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)
  • 63. Computer Software and Applications • Decision analysis tool – @RISK – Precision Tree – Expert Choice – VISA (Visual Thinking International Ltd) – HIVIEW Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 – EQUITY – Risk Plus • (Project) Risk Management Tool – Risk Cost Model – RiskTrak ARM Process™ – NOWECO PRO Act 3.3, Risk Register, and others – ProjectConnection`s applications – ------
  • 64. References 1. Anonymous, Integrated Risk management, Implementation Guide, Treasury Board of Canada, ISBN 0-662- 65673-3, 2001, 102 pp. 2. Anonymous, Risk Management Course, Project Management Professional Development Program, ESI International in association with The George Washington University, 2001 3. Anonymous, Risk Management Standard, published in UK by the Institute of Risk Management (IRM), the Association of Insurance and Risk Managers (AIRMIC), and ALARM The National Forum For Risk Management, © ALARM AIRMIC IRM, 2002, 15 p. 4. Anonymous, DoD Handbook MIL-HDBK-500A, Supplier processes for suppliers processes for aviation and space sectors. Acquistion and sustaining programs, Department of Defense, USA, Jan 99, 31 p. 5. Bleasdale, Tom. J., The Risk of Change, Mott MacDonald Limited (Hatch Mott MacDonald, SAVE International Conference, Jun 03 6. Charette, Robert N., Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management, New York : Intertext Publication, Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009 6. Charette, Robert N., Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management, New York : Intertext Publication, McGraw-Hill, 1989, pp 120-122. 7. Duncan , William R., Director of Standards, PMI Standards Committee, A Guide to the Project Management Book of Knowledge, PMI, 1996, 178 p. 8. Goodwin ,Paul and George Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, Second Edition, John Wiley & Sons, 1998, 454 p. 9. A John Hitchings and Scott Wilson, Risk Assessment, ICE Management Board and Commercial Management Board Briefing, Apr 02 10. Kloman, H. Felix, Risk Management Reports, H. Felix Kloman and Seawrack Press, 2003-06 11. John Hitchings and Scott Wilson, ICE Management Board and Commercial Management Board Briefing, Risk Assessment, Apr 02 12. Phillips, Martyn, A value and risk management approach to project development, proceeding of ICE, Civil Engineering 150, May 02, pp 67-74 13. Carl L. Pritchard, Risk Management, Concepts and Guidance, Second Edition, ESI International, 2001, 342 pp. 14. Routhier, Pierre-Hugues and Eric Delisle, Risk Management - Overview of Risk Theory and its Applications in VE, CSVA Annual Conference, Toronto, Oct. 01 15. Swarz, Bob, Guidelines for Risk Management Process Review, MITRE Society, 12 Dec 07
  • 65. Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009