1) The document summarizes a presentation on risk management for project management given by Alain LeBlanc. It covers the risk management process from identification to mitigation and focuses on a semi-quantitative approach to risk assessment.
2) LeBlanc has over 30 years experience in risk management, value engineering and project management in both the public and private sectors.
3) The key aspects of risk management covered are risk identification, qualitative and quantitative assessment, and response planning to maximize opportunities and minimize threats.
This presentation was prepared to describe the concepts of 'Issue Management' in a humorous manner...Go through the presentation, understand how simple 'Issue Management' is and enjoy!!!
About the front page...well...that is my dog...MAX...isn't he cute :-)
Identify risks and hazards that have the potential to harm any process or project. Use content-ready Risk Assessment PowerPoint Presentation Slides to analyse what can go wrong, how likely it is to happen, what potential consequences are, and how tolerable the identified is. With the help of ready-made risk assessment PowerPoint presentation slideshow, use control measures to eliminate or reduce any potential risk related situation. This deck comprises of various templates to control risks such as types of risks, risk categories, identify the risk categories, stakeholder engagement, stakeholders risk appetite, risk tolerance, procedure, risk management plan, risk register, risk identification, risk assessment, risk analysis, risk response plan, risk response matrix, risk control matrix, risk item tracking, risk impact and probability analysis, risk mitigation strategies, qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, risk management process, risk management steps, and more. These templates are completely customizable. You can easily edit the color, text, icon and font size as per your need. Add or remove content, if needed. Grab this easy-to-understand risk assessment PowerPoint templates to figure out what could cause harm to the project, whether the hazards could be eliminated or not, what preventive measures should be taken to control the risks. Download risk assessment PPT slides now to execute the project easily. Behave in a down to earth fashion with our Risk Assessment Powerpoint Presentation Slides. Give them a glimpse of your fact based approach.
The presentation about Project Risk Management conducted by Mr. Mohamad Boukhari for the project management community in Lebanon during PMI Lebanon Chapter monthly lecture.
Enterprise Risk Management provides decision makers with a
realistic picture of likely
outcomes to their strategic initiatives by integrating risk into the cost benefit analysis of
all strategic investments.
Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing and controlling threats to an organization's capital and earnings. These threats, or risks, could stem from a wide variety of sources, including financial uncertainty, legal liabilities, strategic management errors, accidents and natural disasters.
what is the definition of risk management
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Episode 25 : Project Risk Management
Understand what risk is and the importance of good project risk management.
Discuss the elements involved in risk management planning and the contents of a risk management plan.
List common sources of risks in engineering and information technology projects.
Describe the risk identification process, tools, and techniques to help identify project risks, and the main output of risk identification, a risk register.
SAJJAD KHUDHUR ABBAS
Chemical Engineering , Al-Muthanna University, Iraq
Oil & Gas Safety and Health Professional – OSHACADEMY
Trainer of Trainers (TOT) - Canadian Center of Human
Development
This presentation was prepared to describe the concepts of 'Issue Management' in a humorous manner...Go through the presentation, understand how simple 'Issue Management' is and enjoy!!!
About the front page...well...that is my dog...MAX...isn't he cute :-)
Identify risks and hazards that have the potential to harm any process or project. Use content-ready Risk Assessment PowerPoint Presentation Slides to analyse what can go wrong, how likely it is to happen, what potential consequences are, and how tolerable the identified is. With the help of ready-made risk assessment PowerPoint presentation slideshow, use control measures to eliminate or reduce any potential risk related situation. This deck comprises of various templates to control risks such as types of risks, risk categories, identify the risk categories, stakeholder engagement, stakeholders risk appetite, risk tolerance, procedure, risk management plan, risk register, risk identification, risk assessment, risk analysis, risk response plan, risk response matrix, risk control matrix, risk item tracking, risk impact and probability analysis, risk mitigation strategies, qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, risk management process, risk management steps, and more. These templates are completely customizable. You can easily edit the color, text, icon and font size as per your need. Add or remove content, if needed. Grab this easy-to-understand risk assessment PowerPoint templates to figure out what could cause harm to the project, whether the hazards could be eliminated or not, what preventive measures should be taken to control the risks. Download risk assessment PPT slides now to execute the project easily. Behave in a down to earth fashion with our Risk Assessment Powerpoint Presentation Slides. Give them a glimpse of your fact based approach.
The presentation about Project Risk Management conducted by Mr. Mohamad Boukhari for the project management community in Lebanon during PMI Lebanon Chapter monthly lecture.
Enterprise Risk Management provides decision makers with a
realistic picture of likely
outcomes to their strategic initiatives by integrating risk into the cost benefit analysis of
all strategic investments.
Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing and controlling threats to an organization's capital and earnings. These threats, or risks, could stem from a wide variety of sources, including financial uncertainty, legal liabilities, strategic management errors, accidents and natural disasters.
what is the definition of risk management
risk management services
risk management certification
risk management for project management
risk management terms
celgene risk management
risk management framework
risk management jobs
business research topics for mba
mba topics for presentation
mba project topics
mba research topics in management
dissertation topics for mba
mba finance research topics
mba topics on strategic management
thesis topic for mba
Episode 25 : Project Risk Management
Understand what risk is and the importance of good project risk management.
Discuss the elements involved in risk management planning and the contents of a risk management plan.
List common sources of risks in engineering and information technology projects.
Describe the risk identification process, tools, and techniques to help identify project risks, and the main output of risk identification, a risk register.
SAJJAD KHUDHUR ABBAS
Chemical Engineering , Al-Muthanna University, Iraq
Oil & Gas Safety and Health Professional – OSHACADEMY
Trainer of Trainers (TOT) - Canadian Center of Human
Development
Where do risks (threats and opportunities) arise from?
Presented by Lynn Stalker
Monday 10th October 2016
APM North West branch and Risk SIG conference
Alderley Park, Macclesfield
For your project to be successful you need to think and account for Risk (Opportunities and Threats) beforehand, so you are ready when they happen and you do not panic.
Critical role of_risk_assessment_in_international_projects_enVyacheslav Guzovsky
Risk is usually applied to negative events, things that might go wrong. Hopefully there are things that we can do, systems that we can put into place that will prevent bad things from happening, or at least if bad things happen, will minimize the likelihood of it being a total catastrophe. Some of these things are obvious, some of them are not so obvious and might sound like common sense, but there is a lot of science to back this up. This science is called risk management. It is a whole profession and may take you a few years to get there. The good news is it is a gradual process, and all we need to know is that it can be a handy tool for our trade and achievable by changing our working habits.
Online PMP Training Material for PMP Exam - Risk Management Knowledge AreaGlobalSkillup
Risk Management Knowledge Area in Project management defined by PMBOK 5th Edition by Project Management Institute (PMI). Provided by GlobalSkillup.com towards PMP Certification Exam.
What You Will Learn
After this one-hour session, learners will be able to:
Demonstrate to others how the risk management processes in A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) apply to your project’s environment
Differentiate between Project and Program Risk Management and understand how they support one another
Speaker
Keith is a Senior Consultant, Trainer and Coach with over 25 years of successful management and consulting experience and business planning. Keith is a leader in Agile training, coach and transitioning to Agile and is well known for his public speaking skills and enthusiasm and has been a welcomed facilitator at numerous fortune 500 corporations, universities, and associations worldwide. He is engaging, energetic, entertaining and informative.
PROJECTCON | AGILECON Midwest 2019 in Indianapolis on May 10, 2019
Presenter: Bill Dow
A Guide to Risk Management
Most Project Managers struggle with managing risks and issues. It is a daily struggle, project managers don’t track and understand the purpose of risk management well enough, so we see them either ignore it all together or do the bare minimum. In this presentation, we will walk through the purpose and tracking of risks on projects.
Key Takeaways:
Learn the purpose behind Risk Management
Discover the key steps in Risk Management
Uncover Risk Management tools and techniques
Event Website: https://projectconevent.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/projectcon-llc
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/ProjectConEvent
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/projectconevent
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLLG1SGPs1L5YLoFndvGGhQ
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/projectconevent
Presentation Slides: https://slideshare.com/projectcon
Post Event Trailer: https://youtu.be/1_RzFBnZ7bo
Get to know What is PMI - RMP Certification? and The PMI - RMP certification training that will teach you how to manage risk, which is a structured and objective approach to managing uncertainty in projects. Learn the steps involved in managing risk, including identification, analysis, and responses, and controlling both known as well as unknown risks in projects. Click here to read in Detail.
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Remote sensing and monitoring are changing the mining industry for the better. These are providing innovative solutions to long-standing challenges. Those related to exploration, extraction, and overall environmental management by mining technology companies Odisha. These technologies make use of satellite imaging, aerial photography and sensors to collect data that might be inaccessible or from hazardous locations. With the use of this technology, mining operations are becoming increasingly efficient. Let us gain more insight into the key aspects associated with remote sensing and monitoring when it comes to mining.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
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[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
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Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
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Introduction to risk management
1. Introduction to Risk Management for
Project Management
Alain LeBlanc, CD, B. Eng., M. Sc., M. Eng.
November 14th, 2011
CSVA Annual Conference
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
2. Overview
• The presentation will cover the different aspects of risk management
process from risk identification, assessment to mitigation plan.
• Risk assessment will focus primarily on a semi-quantitative
approach estimating the risk impact in terms of recurring cost,
schedule and other value criteria of the product or project.
schedule and other value criteria of the product or project.
3. Lecturer Background – Alain LeBlanc
Graduate from the Royal Military College of Canada in Mechanical Engineering, with post-
graduate studies at Queen’s and McGill Universities. Three-year as assistant professor in
engineering at the Royal Military College of Canada.
Over 30 years of experience in value engineering, risk and project management in the Canadian
Forces, in large utility projects and in aerospace product development and supply chain
management. Presently assuming the responsibility of Production Readiness Manager as part of
management. Presently assuming the responsibility of Production Readiness Manager as part of
a new program operation management team at Pratt & Whitney Canada.
Member of the CSVA since its foundation in 1993 and held different board positions including four
years as president. CSVA Annual Conference chairman in 1998, 1999 and 2003.
Recipient of the SAVE International Award Best Paper of the Year in 2006 and the President’s
Citation in 2004.
5. Overview
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
‘To win without risk is to triumph without glory.’
-Pierre Corneil (French author)
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
6. Alignment with PMI Book of Knowledge
1. Introduction to risk
management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
Risk
Management
Risk
Identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
Reference: PMI Book of Knowledge, 1996
Risk
Quantification
Risk Response
Development
Risk Response
Control
7. 1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
Overview
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘If you don’t risk anything, you risk even more’
- Erica Jong (American writer and feminist 1950’s)
8.
9. Notions of Risk
What is risk?
‘Risk is the level of exposure to uncertainties that the enterprise
must understand and effectively manage as it executes its
strategies to achieve its business objectives and create value”
strategies to achieve its business objectives and create value”
(Unknown source)
Uncertainties! The key word in risk management!
10. Uncertainties (risk items)
• Uncertainty are any project activity, event or design element for
which success is not guaranteed.
• Or simply… the possibility of not delivering what we’ve planned
to deliver.
to deliver.
• Risks can be external and internal
– Internal : uncertainties that project can control
– External : beyond the control of the project
11. Known and Unknown Uncertainties
• Known known’s ; these uncertainties that one has the knowledge to
properly predict the outcome of the project deliverable (s)
– The project is a complete repeat of the previous one
• Known unknown’s
– The most common area of risk management. This is also a typical area
of project management where project, for example, is launched without
an appropriate level of readiness.
Total uncertainty
an appropriate level of readiness.
• Unknown known’s
– These uncertainties where one has not investigate or search for the
knowledge base, internally or externally, that could affect either
negatively or positively a project.
• Unknown unknown’s
– Context in which there is no historical knowledge – AIDS is a good
example when it was first known
12. Is RISK good? or bad?
• We must promote the ability to look at risk as challenge, or
opportunity, and take on more risk
• Risk management is not about risk elimination by canceling
projects, or other initiatives, but about taking measured risks
projects, or other initiatives, but about taking measured risks
• Risk management serves the purpose of supporting decision
making and setting right and achievable objectives
13. What is RISK Management ?
• A simple terms, it is answering to these sample questions:
– What could go wrong? What could we miss?
– How severe is it?
– What can be we do about it?
– What can be we do about it?
– How do I make this work in my business?
Risk management does not have to be complicated!
14. ‘The systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and
responding to project risks. It includes maximizing the
probability and consequences of positive events and minimizing
the probability and consequences of adverse events to project
Project RISK Management?
objectives.’(PMI Book of Knowledge, 1996)
The fundamental about project risk management is to know
when to take risk as a Project Manager, to know if the risk is
acceptable or unacceptable?
15. Overview
1. Introduction to RISK management
2. RISK management planning
3. RISK identification
4. RISK assessment
5. RISK response
6. RISK control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. RISK references
‘The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.’
-Jawaharlal Nehru (First Prime Minister of Independent India)
16. Risk Management Organization
• Risk management flow down structure
• Risk categorization assigned
• Clear roles and responsibilities
• Mechanisms of risk evaluation and
Corporate Policy
prevention in place
• Go no-go decision making gated
process
• Available tools and methodologies
• Corporate knowledge system
Program / Business
Procedure
Work Instruction
18. RISK R&R in Project Management
• Project manager
– Is accountable for the risk management process
– Set risk management direction
– Integrate risk management with other project management activities
• Project team members
• Project team members
– Perform the risk management activities
– Report status on risk events
• Risk management process owner
– Ensure risk management standard across projects
– Seek, develop and implement risk management tools
– Provide training
– Monitor risk management process performance
19. Overview
1. Introduction to risk management
2. RISK management planning
3. RISK identification
4. RISK assessment
5. RISK response
6. RISK control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. RISK references
‘There are things known, and there are things unknown. And between are the doors.’
- Jim Morrison
20. RISK Identification
• Identification of potential risk events that may affect any project,
using a consistent and structured approach
• Essentially, one should ask questions about potential uncertainties
as follows:
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
– IF something occurs… then what …
• Ensure description is clear for next process steps to avoid the
following situations : Who said what? What does this mean?
Early, at all levels, regularly
21. Examples
• IF the supply of goods are not available on time to be transported before the
thawing season, THEN we will need to find another more costly
transportation alternative
• IF the endurance test failed, THEN we will need to use a more sophisticated
material
• IF the environmental studies require further debate than planned, THEN we
could face significant delay in the construction schedule
22. RISK Identification
How to do it?
• Brainstorming
• Surveys and questionnaires
• Surveys and questionnaires
• Interviews and focus groups
• Delphi technique
• Lessons learned review
• SWOT Analysis
23. Brainstorming
Excellent team approach to risk identification. It allows the group to
ventilate their concerns.
Some of the rules are:
• No judgment or evaluation during idea generation
• Everyone contributes
• Get to the point
• Quantity over Quality
• All ideas are welcome
• Build on ideas
24. Delphi Technique
• Acquiring expert judgement on matter without forcing them outside
their comfort zone
• Based on an iterative set of questionnaires to achieve convergence
on specific subjects
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
• Normally used when experts are geographically distant and that
project schedule allows it
• Used when a handful of people knows about a specific subject
Very accurate qualitative approach to risk review
25. SWOT Analysis
• Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat (SWOT) analysis is a
useful summary technique for summarising the key issues arising
from an assessment of a businesses "internal" position and
"external" environmental influences.
What are the strengths of
your product or business
processes?
What are the weaknesses
compared to competition or
from your market feedback?
Weakness
Strength
What are the opportunities
that the business could
explore?
What are the potential
exposures from the
competition?
Threat
Opportunity
26. RISK Identification
Some inputs to a structured risk identification:
• WBS (prime input for project)
• Product Specification (prime for product)
• SOW
9
8
• SOW
• Scope statement
• Readiness Index
• Cost and schedule estimates
• Internal guidelines
• Others
Technology
Supply Chain
……….
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
27. RISK Register
• A risk register is a repository tool for recording and consolidating risk
events and their subsequent assessment and response.
• Must be initiated at the start of the of the risk management process
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
– Risk data becomes project information
– Project information becomes corporate knowledge
– Corporate knowledge is documented and preserved in corporate
project files for future reference
28. RISK Register
Risk Number Category
WBS No.
or other
WBS
Element
Source Date
Uncerntainty
Name
Description
Project A - 001 Development 23 Road Test
Date
identified
Compressor
endurance test
IF the endurance test failed, THEN we will need
to use a more sophisticated material
Date
IF the environmental studies require further
The risk register starts with the risk identification
Project A - 002 Construction 54 Road Environment
Date
identified
IF the environmental studies require further
debate than planned, THEN we could face
significant delay in the construction schedule
Project A - 003 Aftermarket 57 Controls Supplier
Date
identified
Project A - 004 Construction 32 Machinery
Human
Resources
Date
identified
Project A - 005 Construction 24 Component Supplier
Date
identified
Transportation of
heavy stock
IF the supply of goods are not available on time
to be transported before the thawing season,
THEN we will need to find another more costly
transportation alternative
Project A - 006 etc. etc etc etc
Date
identified
29. RISK Identification
What to avoid?
• Identification of issues rather than uncertainties
• Focusing on the importance rather than uncertainties of the subject
• Poor script - lack of proper description
• Not allowing sufficient time for the process
• Lack of a structure approach
• Red herring issues
• Not waring a RISK hat
30. Overview
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘Courageous risks are life-giving, they help you grow, make you brave, and better
than you think you are.’
-Anomymous
31. Risk Levels : New Automobile Design
What would you act on ? In which order ?
… a 0.5% chance of not meeting highway safety tests
… a 25% chance of not meeting original deadline for delivery to dealers
… a 75% chance we will exceed weight target (by 50 to 100 lbs)
… a 75% chance we will exceed weight target (by 50 to 100 lbs)
… a 99% chance of not meeting passenger cabin height (0.5 inchshort of
target) (Routhier & Delisle, 2001)
32. RISK Assessment
The process of analysing and evaluating risk, to
determine the likelihood of an uncertainty to occur
and the impact it will cause to the business plan
33. RISK Qualitative Assessment
1. Clean up your risk item list
• Ensure risk items cannot be broken further down
2. Priority list based on the team experience and knowledge
• Qualitative : high (red), medium (yellow) and low (green)
• Normally based on the impact on the project
• Normally based on the impact on the project
• Highly influenced from lessons learned
• Can be very influential
3. Visual forms to communicate risk issues
Note: Difficult to quantify the impact in terms of cost
exposure, delay, …
34. RISK Quantitative Assessment
1. For each uncertainty,
– establish a success plan (also called plan A), what is the planned
successful outcome?
– establish a fall-back plan (also called plan B), what is the plan if plan A
cannot be achieved with the current resources and other associated
cannot be achieved with the current resources and other associated
criteria?
2. Determine likelihood of failure of plan A.
3. Determine severity of failure for reverting to plan B.
Risk = Likelihood of failure X Severity of failure
35. Likelihood of Failure
• Likelihood of failure is dependent on the readiness to meet the set
expectations
• Questioning against the following four potential “gaps” is generally
a good quantitative probability assessment of most situations:
– Knowledge of requirements
– Stability of requirements
– Capability to deliver
– Capacity to deliver
36. Likelihood of Failure Matrix
Knowledge of
requirements
Stability of requirements Capability to deliver Capacity to deliver
Improbable
Remote
<5%
Requirements are based
on international standards
Requirements are entirely
within current experience
Supplier has adequate
Considering Plan A, and with respect to your customer, organization or your suppliers, ask ... ?
Unlikely 25
Supplier has adequate
capacity and resources
available
Likely 50%
Major expectations are
stable and frozen in
specifications or SOW
Very Likely 75%
Requirements are not
clearly written and
understood
Knowledge is available
but as never been
applied to that extent
Certain 90%
Product or product
expectations are volatile
There are critical
resources not allocated or
available
Requirements : Customer and social needs, market demand, etc
37. Severity of Failure
• How will failure to address the uncertainty affect the project or
product value?
• Link to critical project or product value elements and their relative
importance to the customer:
– Schedule
– Schedule
– Investment cost
– Recurring Cost
– Product or Service Performance
– Cost of non-Quality
– Customer or contractual penalty
– …
38. Severity of Failure
Little Negligible Marginal Significant Critical
min max min max min max min max More than…
Project Schedule Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Investment Cost Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Product recurring cost Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Product performance Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Cost of non quality Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
Customer penality Nil 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
39. Uncertainty
Name
Description Plan A Plan B
Uncertainty 1 Description 1 Plan A1 Plan B1
Certain
Likely
Certain
Significant
Marginal
High
Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2
Likely
Certain
Critical
Critical High
Impact
Risk
Level
Customer
penality
Other
Likelihood
of Failure
Project
Schedule
Investment
Cost
Product
recurring
cost
Product
performance
Likelihood Matrix Impact Matrix
Knowledge
of
requirements
Stability
of
requirements
Capability
to
deliver
Capacity
to
deliver
RISK Quantitative Assessment
Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2
Likely
Certain
Critical
Critical High
Uncertainty 3 Description 3 Plan A3 Plan B3
Very
Likely
Very Likely
Marginal
Negligeable
Medium
Uncertainty 4 Description 4 Plan A4 Plan B4
Improbable
Improbable
Critical
Medium
Define Plan A Define Plan B
40. Uncertainty
Name
Description Plan A Plan B
Uncertainty 1 Description 1 Plan A1 Plan B1
Certain
Likely
Certain
Significant
Marginal
High
Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2
Likely
Certain
Critical
Critical High
Impact
Risk
Level
Customer
penality
Other
Likelihood
of Failure
Project
Schedule
Investment
Cost
Product
recurring
cost
Product
performance
Likelihood Matrix Impact Matrix
Knowledge
of
requirements
Stability
of
requirements
Capability
to
deliver
Capacity
to
deliver
RISK Quantitative Assessment
Certain
M M H H H
Very
likely
L M M H H
Likely
L L M M H
Unlikely
L L L M M
Im
probable
L L L L M
Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical
RISK Map
Impact
Likelihood
Uncertainty 2 Description 2 Plan A2 Plan B2
Likely
Certain
Critical
Critical High
Uncertainty 3 Description 3 Plan A3 Plan B3
Very
Likely
Very Likely
Marginal
Negligeable
Medium
Uncertainty 4 Description 4 Plan A4 Plan B4
Improbable
Improbable
Critical
Medium
Define the likelihood of failure Define the impact of going to Plan B
41. RISK Level Determination
• Use the larger likelihood and
larger impact against each
uncertainty
• Establish your 2-D Risk Map
Certain
M M H H H
Very
likely
L M M H H
Likely
L L M M H
RISK Map
Likelihood
• Establish your 2-D Risk Map
model with the corresponding
intersecting colour coded risk
level areas
Likely
L L M M H
Unlikely
L L L M M
Improbable
L L L L M
Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical
Impact
Likelihood
42. RISK Map
• Very powerful to summarize
project situation
– Seeing the forest Vs. trees
• Outstanding communication
tool
Certain
M M H H H
Very
likely
L M M H H
Likely
L L M M H
RISK Map
Likelihood
tool
• Can be aligned with customer
or stakeholder requirements
Likely
L L M M H
Unlikely
L L L M M
Improbable
L L L L M
Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical
Impact
Likelihood
43. RISK Quantification Approach
Cost Risk Exposure
• The summation of all expected monetary values for assessed
uncertainties
uncertainties
• Expected monetary value is the multiplication of the probability of a
risk to occur and its monetary impact
• All uncertainties can be translated into cost or other measure
• Opportunities are also part of the analysis. Their monetary impacts
are called LEVERAGE
44. RISK Quantitative Assessment
Recurring Cost Risk Exposure
(and Sensitivity Analysis)
• Determine the risk exposure
equivalency factor using a
business case sensitivity curve.
IRR (%)
business case sensitivity curve.
Ex.: investment cost increase of
$130,000 can be translated into an
equivalent recurring cost increase of
$5 over a period of 10 years.
Recurring Cost
Investment Cost
(+)
(-)
45. Course structure
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.’
- General George S. Patton)
46. RISK Response
• How to react to risks and opportunities when identified and
assessed
• Response plan will depend upon the types of risk, policy and
procedure
procedure
• Response priority is driven by the risk map
• Risk response plans are integrated into the project plan
• Risk response plan may affect more than one risk item
48. RISK Avoidance
• Selecting a lower risk options or
simply removing the item from the
deliverable
– If we have to accept the risk, what
1
2
3
7
?
contingency strategies are available?
– How could we avoid this event?
• This is particularly pertinent to
uncertainties situated into the risk
map RED area
49. RISK Mitigation
• Mitigating risk is about taking specific actions to reduce risk, i.e.,
– Reducing the probability of the risk event happening?
– Reducing the impact of the risk event on the business?
• Mitigation plans must be integrated into project plan
• If RED risks are identified at project start, cost and schedule contingency
must be accounted for
• All RED and YELLOW risks should have mitigation plans, if risk avoidance
is not established
51. RISK Transfer
• Risk transfer is about shifting the risk to another party (through law, contract
or insurance)
• Partnership is one of the key strategies used for large investment projects
• Risks can also be transferred to:
• Risks can also be transferred to:
– Sub-contractors
– Vendors
– Customers
– Government
• Risk transfer does mean risk is eliminated. Mitigation plans will be required
but managed by the third party
52. RISK Acceptance
• Risk acceptance is about moving forward, passively or actively, with the
potential that a risk could occur, without risk attenuation measure
• The assumption is that the project or the organization will deal with the
issue if it arises. Normally, one is assuming that the risk will be managed
issue if it arises. Normally, one is assuming that the risk will be managed
and will disappear
• If risk occurs, contingency reserves will be used. This can be detrimental to
a business as it precludes risk management as a key process
53. Contingency Reserve
• Contingency reserve : the amount of money or time needed above
the estimate to reduce the risk of overruns of project objectives to a
level that is acceptable to the organization (PMI 1996)
– High risk uncertainty exposures are used to estimate contingencies
– Medium risk uncertainty exposures should also be taking into
consideration
– Contingency reserve must be included in the project budget and
schedule
54. Management Reserve
• Management reserve : an amount of money set aside for
management that is a proportion of contingency reserves from all
projects
• Management reserve is at the discretion of upper management and
is set up to deal with uncertainties such as inflation rate, exchange
rate prediction, etc
55. RISK Response
What to avoid?
• Maintain high risk uncertainties in the equation
• Manage mitigation plans apart from other plans
• Manage mitigation plans apart from other plans
– Integrate into project schedule
• Report on plans for sake of reporting
• Lack of real detail planning
• Carry unnecessary contingency
56. Course structure
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
57. RISK Control and Feedback
• The process of executing the risk management plan. It also
includes the response if known or unknown risks or opportunities
occur
• Identify areas where risk or opportunity was not identified and why?
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
• Identify areas where risk or opportunity was not identified and why?
• Document events and action taken
• Review the assessment methodology. Was risk understated?
• Assess the response plans effectiveness
• Secure the lessons learned
58. RISK Control and Feedback
Workaround
• Actions associated to crisis management, reacting to unplanned
events
• Contingency and management reserves will provide a source of
support
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
support
Modification to planned response plan
• Closely monitoring of response plan and re-assessment of known
risks and opportunities are part of project management activities
59. Course structure
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.’
-Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)
60. RISK Management Overview
Risk
is a measure of the
possibility of deviation from
the expected
Risk Map
Certain
M M H H H
Very
likely
L M M H H
Likely
L L M M H
Unlikely
L L L M M
Improbable
RISK Map
Likelihood
1
4
2
3
5
6
7
8
9 10
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
Risk Management
is a discipline for
dealing with uncertainty
the expected
• Risk Assessment
• Response Plans
• Risk Waterfalls
• Feedback
Improbable
L L L L M
Little Negligeable Marginal Significant Critical
Impact
61. Conclusions
• Times are hard, money is tightly controlled
• Customer want new products faster and with entry-into-service
risk free
• Cost plus projects are passé
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
• Risk process must be applied at launch
• Integrate response plans with the project plan
• Drive and track with rigour
At the end, you do not want to be the one bringing the bad news!
62. Course structure
1. Introduction to risk management
2. Risk management planning
3. Risk identification
4. Risk assessment
5. Risk response
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
6. Risk control and feedback
7. Conclusions
8. Risk references
‘I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.’
-Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)
63. Computer Software and Applications
• Decision analysis tool
– @RISK
– Precision Tree
– Expert Choice
– VISA (Visual Thinking International Ltd)
– HIVIEW
Alain LeBlanc on Risk Management, 2009
– EQUITY
– Risk Plus
• (Project) Risk Management Tool
– Risk Cost Model
– RiskTrak ARM Process™
– NOWECO PRO Act 3.3, Risk Register, and others
– ProjectConnection`s applications
– ------