The design thinking process is increasingly criticized for conservatism and maintaining status quo, despite its popularization for collaborative change-making. At all levels, we admittedly craft idealistic user journeys, brand experiences, and business outcomes as design objectives, sidestepping the realistic challenges we, our products, and our users will face. As interface designers, we actively ignore the impending disruption of human work by automation, bots, and artificial intelligence. As organizational problem solvers, our scope of vision rarely zooms out to observe economies and markets shifting, dying, and being born. As dreamers and innovators, we focus on the value-creating dream for our creations, and have a hard time imagining their risk of weaponization or malpractice GE Transportation’s, futurism research team is a steward for the railroad and adjacent industries who've been "doing it this way" for centuries. Their customers, and their departments, alienate one other as competitors, matching projects and resources to small-picture pain points that woefully and naively leave the surrounding global and industry changes unaddressed-- changes that, if left ignored, will result in the extinction of their market, workforce, and relevance. Anthony’s team shapes politically-charged partnerships, aligned industry visions, and intentional roadmaps into the future. In this talk, Anthony will give the audience a renewed understanding of the importance of design context and a fresh look at how a healthy culture of the apocalypse can sharpen your design strategies, rally your stakeholders and decision-makers, and drive bigger picture innovation that trickles actionable guidance down to day-to-day projects. Attendees will walk away with tangible activities for integrating speculative doomsday design fiction into their individual decisions and co-creative conversations.

1. Anthony D Paul, Transportation Futurist
Envisioning our
demise, to prevent
our extinction.
@anthonydpaul

2. Fernbank Museum
Atlanta, GA
@anthonydpaul

3. Fernbank Museum
Atlanta, GA
@anthonydpaul
RAILROAD
ANOTHER RAILROAD
VESSELS
DRONE
TRUCKS
COVERED WAGON (DYSENTERY)
AMAZON IN 1995

4. Fernbank Museum
Atlanta, GA
@anthonydpaul

5. Unprecedented
risk of disruption
@anthonydpaul

6. Veteran workforce
retirement cliff
6 @anthonydpaul

7. Driverless long-range
electric trucks
7 @anthonydpaul

8. Walmazons as
logistics providers
8 @anthonydpaul

9. Aerial, terrestrial,
and aquatic drones
9 @anthonydpaul

10. Multi-century industries
who founded empires
10 @anthonydpaul

11. Multi-century industries
who founded empires
11 @anthonydpaul
“We’ve been doing it this way
hundreds of years.”
“Labor unions won’t let us.”
“Grandfathered government
regulations aren’t fair.”
“We don’t have budget for that.”
“Shareholders demand
quarterly profits.”
“They’re a competitor.”
“We can’t move that fast.”

12. As if that’s not
enough to work on…
12 @anthonydpaul
China/US
trade tensions
robots versus
humans ethics
and concerns
climate
change
cyberterrorism +
weaponized design

13. For
example…
13 @anthonydpaul
90% of global shipping
volume is by sea, across
3,700+ maritime ports.
Sea levels are rising.
See: NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#

14. 14 @anthonydpaul
What’s the
point of
redesigning
an app if the
port will be
flooded?

15. What’s the
point of
redesigning
an app if the
port will be
flooded?
Why save
human jobs
if we’ll all
have robots
and UBI?
15 @anthonydpaul

16. What’s the
point of
redesigning
an app if the
port will be
flooded?
16 @anthonydpaul
Why save
human jobs
if we’ll all
have robots
and UBI?
Besides,
aren’t we all
moving to
Mars to grow
potatoes with
our poop?

17. Watching the sky is
scary, but it doesn’t
have to be crippling.
@anthonydpaul

18. This is why
we’re here
18
I’m Anthony D. Paul and I manage a team of futurists, explorers, and
hackers at GE Transportation’s Innovation Lab in Atlanta, GA.
We travel the world to learn and exploit the fears of the workforce, to
convince competitors to become partners and inspire the resistance
to become supporters of change. We work to prevent extinction.
@anthonydpaul

19. 1 2
3
Today I’ll share four techniques to define
and align the vision of independent
organizations, teams, and people—to
enable unified evolution.
19 @anthonydpaul
4

20. 20 @anthonydpaul
Use contrast for
impactful stories1of 4

21. Nancy
Duarte’s
new bliss
21
In her TED talk, she dissects the hidden structure of persuasive speeches,
including MLK’s “I have a dream” and Steve Jobs’ iPhone debut.
They build tension by toggling the dismal current state versus the “new bliss.”
@anthonydpaul
see: https://www.ted.com/talks/nancy_duarte_the_secret_structure_of_great_talks

22. Driving
change
22
When sharing design concepts, use the scary stories
as contrast, rather than relying only on value points.
Discuss what is being prevented as well as what is
being introduced.
@anthonydpaul

23. 23 @anthonydpaul
Use stress cases to
create vivid dreamscapes2 of 4

24. Eric Meyer’s
stress cases
24
In his WordCamp talk on designing for real life, he references an
auto insurance app promoting the “request a quote” CTA.
The real world is broken down on the side of the road, with a
crying baby, in the hot sun.
See: https://wordpress.tv/2016/06/24/eric-a-meyer-design-for-real-life/
@anthonydpaul expectation realityvs

25. What is
25
x
@anthonydpaul

26. 26
Collect fears and known drivers for change, then score them
by impact and variability (uncertainty).
@anthonydpaul
see: the impact and
uncertainty matrix
What
could be

27. 27
Turn high impact and volatile drivers into playgrounds for
ideation—survivalism and innovation opportunities.
@anthonydpaul
see: HHL – Leipzig Graduate
School of Management,
Future Scenarios for the
European Airline Industry
What
could be

28. 28
Use the critical uncertainties highlighted in your impact and uncertainty
matrix to tell a variety of utopic and dystopic future stories.
Design within each of them, then see which design solutions maintain
value across speculative futures.
@anthonydpaul
see: Banksy’s
Dismaland
photo by
Matthew Baker,
Getty Images
What
could be

29. Example
workshop
29
We ran a community workshop for Metro Atlanta Chamber of
Commerce’s smart city initiative. Teams created stories, designed
IoT products, then swapped futures to re-evaluate their products.
see: https://www.meetup.com/ATL-Speculative-Futures/events/255569288/
@anthonydpaul

30. Reverse the
workshop
30
Ask if X+Y+Z constraint were true, how would the world be different? If a
capability existed, how does it change our workplace, our workforce, and
our business? Use a hero’s challenge as a stress case.
@anthonydpaul

31. Repeat
the loop
31
If a context was true, what product need would be created? If that
product existed, how would it alter its own context?
Like the 5 whys, this line of thinking helps arrive at new, novel ideas.
@anthonydpaul
created in
partnership
with SCAD

32. Teleportation
32 @anthonydpaul

33. Holograms
33 @anthonydpaul
see: Magic Leap’s
acquisition of
Mimesys

34. Future
Simulations
34 @anthonydpaul
created in
partnership
with SCAD

35. New human
roles and
skills
35 @anthonydpaul

36. Vivid,
polytopic
dreamscapes
36 @anthonydpaul

37. Driving
change
37
Stress cases help harden designs and to anticipate the presentation
hecklers—addressing many “what if” challenges they may pose.
Involving decision-makers in the process of defining stress cases can
also help them to better empathize with customers, end-users, and
the difficult design challenge.
@anthonydpaul

38. Driving
change
38
Give decision-makers something to experience. When we reach this
specific time, what will it look and feel like? Create a venue for new ideas.
@anthonydpaul
created in
partnership
with TEAGUE

39. @anthonydpaul

40. 40 @anthonydpaul
Recursively cultivate
signals into forecasts3 of 4

41. 41
“ Our collective ability to realize a
positive future depends on our
collective ability to imagine it.”
from Stuart Candy’s TEDxChristchurch talk, Whose future is this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxgVxu2mdZI

42. Cone of
Futures
42
Stuart Candy’s talk introduces plural futures and emphasizes choosing
and designing a collective vision you and your partners can drive toward.
Learn about the Cone of Futures and begin categorizing predictions by
distance in time and likelihood.
@anthonydpaul see: https://sjef.nu/theory-of-change-and-the-futures-cone/

43. Alignment
platform
43
Create a central future story to share and start new conversations—ours is
called the Future of Freight Vision Timeline.
@anthonydpaul
created in
partnership
with Teague

44. A large
timeline of
small
forecasts
44 @anthonydpaul

45. Global trends
+ new tech.
= eras of
change
45 @anthonydpaul

46. Milestones
for dreaming
46 @anthonydpaul

47. Provocative
questions
47 @anthonydpaul

48. On tour
48 @anthonydpaul

49. Have lively
discussions
49 @anthonydpaul

50. Capture
anecdotes
from all
corners
50 @anthonydpaul

51. Research
the signal
51 @anthonydpaul

52. Track our
own signals
52 @anthonydpaul
Peter Diamandis
TopBots (AI)
Futurism.com
Railway Age
Freight Waves
RT&S Rail Brief

53. Track it on a
working
wall
53 @anthonydpaul

54. Update it
recursively
54 @anthonydpaul

55. Paint new
visions
55 @anthonydpaul

56. Inspire new
solutions
56 @anthonydpaul

57. 57 @anthonydpaul
Map dependencies to
sell the boring stuff4 of 4

58. The RFP
process
58
Without the why, those approving budgets will always cross out
the boring stuff—anything where they can’t visualize the ROI.
@anthonydpaul

59. Workshop
activities
59
Seasonally search for and agree upon opportunities to size.
Prioritize dependencies supporting many opportunities.
Backcast all social, technological, regulatory, or other dependencies.
@anthonydpaul

60. Draw a
line
60 @anthonydpaul

61. Define
unlocked
capabilities
61 @anthonydpaul

62. Size the idea
and its value
62 @anthonydpaul

63. Prioritize
initiatives
63 @anthonydpaul

64. Backcast
dependencies
64 @anthonydpaul

65. Heatmap
critical
dependencies
65 @anthonydpaul

66. Make them
actionable
66 @anthonydpaul

67. Driving
change
67
Individual teams, products, customer businesses, and people all
need their own instructions for what to work on next.
Often, incentives and success metrics are misaligned with the
visionary direction we’re headed and you can enable “success”
with achievement milestones you co-define.
@anthonydpaul

68. All four in
tandem
68
1. Use scary bedtime stories for contrast, to amplify positive futures.
2. Prepare for all the doomsdays to survive and thrive within any future.
3. Align everyone’s future vision to build upon every conversation,
because none of this is sci-fi. The world around us is moving and each
of us know a tiny bit about where it’s going.
4. Turn dependencies into near-term wins by illuminating the value they
will unlock and giving them tactical tasks.
There’s no curtained unveiling of the future—we’re in it.
@anthonydpaul

69. Design for
transition
69
As practitioners, it’s our fiduciary duty and ethical
responsibility to look beyond today.
You have to design for transition.
You have to show your value as a strategic thinker.
You must do your job as a steward for positive futures…
@anthonydpaul

70. …or else
we all die.
70 @anthonydpaul

71. Thank
you.Anthony D. Paul
anthonydpaul@gmail.com
@anthonydpaul on Twitter
@transfuturists on Instagram