Anthony D. Paul manages a team of futurists at GE Transportation's Innovation Lab. He shares four techniques for defining and aligning visions across organizations: (1) use contrasting stories of current problems versus future solutions, (2) design for stressful scenarios, (3) build on research and conversations to develop collective visions, and (4) map dependencies to prioritize work. The goal is to anticipate challenges, survive disruptions, and drive progress towards a shared future.

1. Anthony D Paul, GE Transportation’s Innovation Lab
Envisioning our
demise, to prevent
our extinction.
@anthonydpaul

2. Unprecedented
risk of disruption
@anthonydpaul

3. Veteran workforce
retirement cliff
3 @anthonydpaul

4. Driverless long-range
electric trucks
4 @anthonydpaul

5. Walmazons as
logistics providers
5 @anthonydpaul

6. Aerial, terrestrial,
and aquatic drones
6 @anthonydpaul

7. Multi-century industries
who founded empires
7 @anthonydpaul

8. Multi-century industries
who founded empires
8 @anthonydpaul
“We’ve been doing it this way
hundreds of years.”
“Labor unions won’t let us.”
“Grandfathered government
regulations aren’t fair.”
“We don’t have budget for that.”
“Shareholders demand
quarterly profits.”
“They’re a competitor.”
“We can’t move that fast.”

9. As if that’s not
enough to work on…
9 @anthonydpaul
climate
change
robots versus
humans ethics
and concerns
China/US
trade tensions
cyberterrorism

10. For
example…
10 @anthonydpaul
90% of global shipping
volume is by sea, across
3,700+ maritime ports.
Sea levels are rising.
see: NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#

11. 11 @anthonydpaul
What’s the
point of
redesigning
an app if the
port will be
flooded?

12. What’s the
point of
redesigning
an app if the
port will be
flooded?
Why save
human jobs
if we’ll all
have robots
and UBI?
12 @anthonydpaul

13. What’s the
point of
redesigning
an app if the
port will be
flooded?
13 @anthonydpaul
Why save
human jobs
if we’ll all
have robots
and UBI?
Besides,
aren’t we all
moving to
Mars to grow
potatoes with
our poop?

14. This is why
we’re here
14
I’m Anthony D. Paul and I manage a team of futurists, explorers, and
hackers at GE Transportation’s Innovation Lab in Atlanta, GA.
We travel the world to learn and exploit the fears of the workforce, to
convince competitors to become partners and inspire the resistance
to become supporters. We work to prevent extinction.
@anthonydpaul

15. Today I’ll share four techniques to define
and align the vision of independent
organizations, teams, and people—to
enable unified evolution.
15 @anthonydpaul
1. Use contrast for impactful stories.
2. Design for stress cases.
3. Build upon conversations and aggregate research.
4. Map dependencies to sell the boring stuff.

16. 16 @anthonydpaul
Use contrast for
impactful stories.1of 4

17. Nancy
Duarte’s
new bliss
17
In her TED talk, she dissects the hidden structure of persuasive speeches,
including MLK’s “I have a dream” and Steve Jobs’ iPhone debut.
They build tension by toggling the dismal current state versus the “new bliss.”
@anthonydpaul
see: https://www.ted.com/talks/nancy_duarte_the_secret_structure_of_great_talks

18. Workshop
activities
18
Collect all fears and known drivers for change, then score
them by impact and variability (uncertainty).
Turn high impact and volatile drivers into playgrounds for
ideation—survivalism and innovation opportunities.
@anthonydpaul
see: the impact and
uncertainty matrix
https://is.gd/Qf1fcV

19. Driving
change
19
When sharing design concepts, use the scary stories
as contrast, rather than relying only on value points.
Discuss what is being prevented as well as what is
being introduced.
@anthonydpaul

20. 20 @anthonydpaul
Design for
stress cases.2 of 4

21. Eric Meyer’s
stress cases
21
In his WordCamp talk on designing for real life, he references an
auto insurance app promoting the “request a quote” CTA.
The real world is broken down on the side of the road, with a
crying baby, in the hot sun.
see: https://wordpress.tv/2016/06/24/eric-a-meyer-design-for-real-life/
@anthonydpaul expectation realityvs

22. Workshop
activities
22
Use the critical uncertainties highlighted in your impact and
uncertainty matrix to tell a variety of dismal future stories.
Design within each of them, then see which design solutions
maintain value across speculative futures.
@anthonydpaul
see: Banksy’s
Dismaland
photo by
Matthew Baker,
Getty Images

23. Example
workshop
23
We ran a community workshop for Metro Atlanta Chamber of
Commerce’s smart city initiative. Teams created stories, designed
IoT products, then swapped futures to re-evaluate their products.
see: https://www.meetup.com/ATL-Speculative-Futures/events/255569288/
@anthonydpaul

24. Driving
change
24
Stress cases help harden designs and to anticipate the presentation
hecklers—addressing many “what if” challenges they may pose.
Involving decision-makers in the process of defining stress cases can
also help them to better empathize with customers, end-users, and
the difficult design challenge.
@anthonydpaul

25. 25 @anthonydpaul
Build upon conversations
and aggregate research.3 of 4

26. 26
“ Our collective ability to realize a
positive future depends on our
collective ability to imagine it.”
from Stuart Candy’s TEDxChristchurch talk, Whose future is this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxgVxu2mdZI

27. Cone of
Futures
27
Stuart Candy’s talk introduces plural futures and emphasizes choosing
and designing a collective vision you and your partners can drive toward.
Learn about the Cone of Futures and begin categorizing predictions by
distance in time and likelihood.
@anthonydpaul see: https://sjef.nu/theory-of-change-and-the-futures-cone/

28. Workshop
activities
28
Use your central future story to share and start new conversations—ours
is called the Future of Freight Vision Timeline.
Capture additional global trends, eras of change, milestones, technologies
being created, and anticipated business opportunities to unlock.
@anthonydpaul
created in
partnership
with Teague

29. Driving
change
29
Illustrate dated milestones to give decision-makers something to experience.
When we reach this specific time, what will it look and feel like?
@anthonydpaul
created in
partnership
with SCAD

30. 30 @anthonydpaul

31. 31 @anthonydpaul
Map dependencies to
sell the boring stuff.4 of 4

32. The RFP
process
32
Without the why, those approving budgets will always cross out
the boring stuff—anything where they can’t visualize the ROI.
@anthonydpaul

33. Workshop
activities
33
Seasonally search for and agree upon opportunities to size.
Prioritize dependencies supporting many opportunities.
Backcast all social, technological, regulatory, or other dependencies.
@anthonydpaul

34. Driving
change
34
Individual teams, products, customer businesses, and people all
need their own instructions for what to work on next.
Often, incentives and success metrics are misaligned with the
visionary direction we’re headed and you can enable “success”
with achievement milestones you co-define.
@anthonydpaul

35. All four in
tandem
35
1. Use contrast for impactful stories. Scary stories can help elevate
value statements and see new opportunities.
2. Design for stress cases. Prepare for all the doomsdays, to survive
and thrive within any future.
3. Build upon conversations and aggregate research. Use every
conversation additively and create a collective vision, because none of
this is sci-fi. The world around us is moving and you’ll begin to see
where it’s going.
4. Map dependencies to sell the boring stuff. Turn them into near-term
wins by illuminating the value they will unlock. There’s no curtained
unveiling of the future—we’re in it.
@anthonydpaul

36. Design for
transition
36
As practitioners, it’s our fiduciary duty and ethical
responsibility to look beyond today.
You have to design for transition.
You have to show your value as a strategic thinker.
You must do your job…
@anthonydpaul

37. …or else
we all die.
37 @anthonydpaul

38. Thank
you.Anthony D. Paul
anthonydpaul@gmail.com
@anthonydpaul