Press Conference, Rome 21 Dec 2012. Simonetta Cheli, Head of Coordination Office, Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes, ESA, ESRIN

1. Environment and climate:
The space perspective
Dr. Simonetta Cheli
Head, Coordination Office of the ESA Earth Observation
Programmes
21 December 2011, Rome

2. Point of departure: Earth from space
• Called a “fragile oasis”,
Earth is our home with
finite resources
• Powered by the Sun
• Newly “discovered” with
the advent of the space age

3. The human race: ever growing
• According to the UN
Population Reference
Bureau, the world’s
population is reaching the
new milestone of 7 Billion
in October 2011
• The speed of growth is
alarming, with estimated 9
Billion by mid-century

4. The human footprint: not just a metaphor
Credit: University of Heidelberg
Example 1: The global distribution of NO2 as an indicator of atmospheric pollution.
Data are based on observations from Envisat. Correlation with human settlements
and (industrial) activity.

5. The human footprint: not just a metaphor
Example 2: Artificial surface patterns as result of human land use for agriculture /
food production (Phoenix, Arizona; and Imperial Valley [USA]).

6. The human footprint: not just a metaphor
Credit: University of Sheffield
Example 3: Traces of human activity in hostile environments – soil irrigation in the
southern Sahara as seen by the Envisat mission (detail).

7. Pollution over mega-cities
Smog over south-east China, © NASA Earth Observatory

8. The vantage of outer space
Credit: University of Sheffield
The advantage of satellite
observations from space:
 Perpetual observations
 Global coverage
 Short revisit cycles and long-term
data sets
 “Accessibility” through over-flight
 Newest measurement technologies
 International cooperation

9. In orbit: ESA Earth Observation missions
 17 missions in space by
2015
 More than 4000 projects
worldwide use their
data – increasing
further
 More than 100 Terabyte
of data per year
 30 partner missions

10. The discovery of the “System Earth”:
Earth systems science
Earth system science
seeks to integrate various
fields of scientific study to
understand the Earth as a
system.
It considers interaction
between the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, lithosphere
(geosphere), biosphere,
and cryosphere.

11. The IPCC Report 2007
– a 3.4°C increase in annual temperature (up to
3.7°C in spring), and
– a 23% decrease in winter rainfall, and
– a 13% decrease in spring rainfall
 Precipitation: decrease in arid
regions and increase in wet areas
 Storms: significantly stronger
 Sea level rise: up to 48cm until 2100
Global temperature increase between
+ 2.4 and 6.4 degrees until 2100
Point of departure: A changing
environment
Surface air temperature anomalies
for southern Africa until 2100
 Africa: Predictions for the southern
African region (averaged):

12. GMES: Global Monitoring for Environment &
Security
 Flagship programme of EU and ESA:
European independency and contribution
to GEO
 The Sentinel-Satellites and partner missions
will provide long-term space observations
 7 satellite launches between 2013 and 2015
 Services for a multitude of users and benefits
for all European citizens & beyond
 EC discusses extension of GMES Africa
 Open and Free Data Policy planned

13.  The work of science
communities and ESA
for 11 selected ECVs
has started
 ESA is coordinating
the programme at
international level, e.g.
with EUMETSAT and
EU
 The Climate Change
Summits in
Copenhagen &
Cancun have
underlined the
importance of this
activity
The “ESA Climate Change Initiative”
Surface temperature changes based on natural forcings only (blue) or
natural and anthropogenic forcings (pink); observation average (black)
Source: IPCC 2007

14.  UN Development Goals
 Water: the “ blue gold” of
the 21st
century
 The geopolitics of climate
change: stability, security
of supply
 Access to and use of
energy
 From global warming to
global warring
Climate Change: a threat to security –
demanding better preparedness

15. Climate Change and Security: an inherent link
Climate variations influence:
 agricultural productivity
 resource availability
 health risk
 migration patterns
and ultimately
 conflict level of societies
* ‘2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human
Susceptibility’, Büntgen et al., Science, 2011

16. A recent study in NATURE (Hsiang et al., Aug. 2011) found that in El Nino years,
twice as many civil wars occurred on global level, suggesting that there is a link
between climatic developments and societal stress levels.
Civil conflicts and climate: an association

17. Example: The Dafur Crisis – assistance from
orbit
• Satellite maps and geographical information
products directly for users in the field
• Use of ten sensors from nine spacecraft
• Envisat's ASAR identifies roads, shows land
relief and is sensitive to the presence of water
• Maps are produced within 10-12 hours of
satellite image acquisition
• Information is supplied to NGOs to intervene
more effectively

18. Conclusions
 Spaceship Earth: not only a metaphor
 Climate and environmental variations
have a fundamental impact on how we
live, behave and plan our actions
 Worsening conditions lead to stress on
societies
 Space technologies help to assess the
state of the planet and understand its
functioning
 Space applications help the sustainable
management of food and water resources
and to release stress on societies

19. ESRIN – the ESA centre in Italy
Some 30.000 visitors per year
and a wealth of international
scientific conferences
 642 staff and contractors are
working on site
– Earth Observation
– Vega Department
– Corporate Informatics
– Telecommunications
– Contracts, Site, Personnel,
Communication
– ASI Science Data Centre
– ESA Security Office