The presentation by Brad Evans addresses the rising levels of CO2 and their effects on terrestrial ecosystems, emphasizing the need for ecosystem models to better account for dynamics such as migration, fire, and land use changes. Three unifying principles are proposed: integrating observations with models, ensuring transparency for confidence in model efficacy, and fostering innovation while maintaining simplicity. The project is supported by the Australian National Data Service and aims to improve the observation-model-policy cycle for more effective ecosystem management.

1. Unifying principles for terrestrial
ecosystem carbon, water and land-
surface modelling
Presentation by Brad Evans

3. The problem: CO2 is rising
The Ecosystem Modeller seeks to:
Generally, understand the effects of CO2
increases on ecosystems
Quantify negative feedbacks – the impact of
rising CO2, land surface warming and extreme
events on ecosystems
6CO2 + 6H20 C6H12O6 + 6O2
light energy
chlorophyll +
nutrients

4. IPCC Consensus: CO2 Fertilization
WUE
NPP
WUE =
GPP
ET
NPP = GPP - R
N & P

5. Residential land sink

6. Complexity of global models
What models don’t currently do well (mostly)…
• Ecosystem dynamics generally
• Migration
• Fire
• Logging
• Harvesting
• Insect outbreaks
• Decomposition
• Phosphorus cycle
• Veg-soil-atmosphere continuum
• Land use, land use change and forestry generally

7. Three unifying principles
1. Observations, Models and Understanding
Integration of empirical science and modelling
increases scientific understanding of observed
phenomena.
2. Transparency, Evaluation, Confidence
Reproducible models, transparently evaluated
against empirical data, enhances community
confidence in their efficacy.
3. Innovation, Standards, Simplicity
Continuous technical innovation, adaptation of
standards and mitigating against unnecessary
complexity underpins simplicity.

8. The viscous observation – model – policy cycle
(1) MORE
Observations
(2) BETTER
models are
developed
(3) Models
evaluated
against
observations
(4) EVEN
BETTER
Models
(5) BETTER
Policy

9. This project is supported by the Australian National Data Service (ANDS). ANDS is supported by the Australian Government through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy
Program and the Education Investment Fund (EIF) Super Science Initiative. For more information visit the ANDS website ands.org.au and Research Data Australia services.ands.org.au.