Impatti della crisi Economica in Asia Centrale- Seminario- 5 Maggio 2009,Università di Bologna, polo di Ravenna.

1. IMPATTI DELLA CRISI ECONOMICA IN ASIA CENTRALE Azerbaigian, Kazakistan e Uzbekistan Ilaria Rega Ravenna, 5 maggio 2009

5. Problemi della crescita per la riduzione della povertà (“U invertita”) Millions living in absolute income poverty in FSU, Turkey, Balkans, new EU member states. World Bank data, using 2005 PPP exchange rates.

7. Incremento della povertà dopo la crisi finanziaria russa del 1998 Absolute income poverty, measured against PPP $ 4.30/day threshold. World Bank data.

8. Previsioni sulla crescita: Annual GDP growth. IMF, JP Morgan publications

10. Shock commerciale: principali indicatori nei mercati chiave Change in industrial output, October 2008 – February 2009 (year-on-year) Sources: Eurostat, EIU, national statistical offices

12. Rifinanziamento: Attuale equilibrio dei conti (2008) Shares of 2008 GDP. Source: EIU. Significant refinancing issues could be present. Much depends on FDI, concessional finance (IMF) Significant refinancing issues are present No refinancing issues

13. Pagamenti: chi è più a rischio? Remittances as % of GDP. Source: World

14. Settori in cui la Russia gioca uno speciale ruolo economico nei Paesi ex-Sovietici In billions. Source: Central Bank of Russia. 2008 data are preliminary.

15. Dati della Banca Mondiale: alti tassi di povertà in Asia Centrale 2005 World Bank data, based on 2005 PPP exchange rates

16. Tassi elevati di consumo di acqua In cubic metres per annum. From various years, 1998-2007. Source: (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/dbase/index.stm

17. Dovuto all’irrigazione, non all’uso familiare 2004 data. Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office

18. Ma le riserve di acqua del periodo 2008-2009 sono al di sotto della norma 2008-2009 data, relative to monthly averages from 1991-2007. Source: SIC-ICWC, UNDP calculations.

19. Lo shock Elettrico ha bloccato la crescita economica Electric power generation, 2008 Change in industrial output Source: National statistical offices * Kumtor production not included

20. Come sono aumentati i costi dell’energia Price (per 1000 cubic metres) of gas imports from Uzbekistan, purchased by TAJ, KYR Per kWh. World Bank data Imported gas costs Average household electricity tariffs (TAJ)

22. Portando alla crescita dell’inflazione Average annual inflation rates. Source: National statistical office Tajikistan

23. Diminuzione dei flusso di pagamenpossibili are d’azione per migliorare la situazione Sources: National Banks of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan; IMF. 2009:Q1 data are for January-February

24. Allo stesso modo i prezzi di esportazione ed i tassi di cambio del Tajikistan’s sono crollati Source: OANDA Source: IMF

26. La siccità è in diminuzione… Water volumes for these months in 2008-2009, relative to average volumes for these months during 1991-2007. Source: ICWC-SIC, UNDP calculations

27. … .Ma non nel Bacino Syr Darya Water volumes for these months in 2008-2009, relative to average volumes for these months during 1991-2007. Source: ICWC-SIC, UNDP calculations

29. Le rimesse potrebbero diminuire moltissimo Wages and transfers received, in million. Sources: National Banks of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan; IMF.

30. 2009 Prospettive di crescita..grandi incertezze PIL 7.9% It’s not clear where growth will come from in 2009 Industry -4.0% “ Electric shock” is giving industrial production a seasonal character. Electricity consumption dropped 7% during January-February, and export demand is falling sharply. Agriculture 7.9% Reduction in cotton planted, more land under cultivation seemed to offset the drought. Prospects in the Amu-Darya basin may be better than in the Syr-Darya Basin. Fixed investment 60.8% Due mostly to budget spending on infrastructure, and housing construction financed by remittances. It’s not clear that these trends will continue in 2009. Retail sales 13.5% Remittances played key role in boosting household spending Remittances are down sharply in January-February.