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THE OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY
AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016
Andrew Wyckoff
Director, Directorate for Science, Technology and ...
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
“What’s new in the field of science,
technology and innovation policy? “
I...
ONLINE CONTENT
~ 40 policy profiles
Cross-country comparison of
key STI policy orientation,
instruments and governance
Sci...
Main messages of the STI Outlook 2016
4
• We’re facing pressing, global challenges
• From climate change to growing inequa...
5
Megatrends
& Technology
Trends
for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
8 Megatrends for STI
6
Big challenges lay ahead (1)
7
Unsustainable growth
• Climate change and environmental degradation
• Resource depletion Ho...
Big challenges lay ahead (2)
8
Ageing societies
• Rising costs of health
and social care
• Higher dependency
ratios
• Slow...
Big challenges lay ahead (3)
9
Growing inequality
• There are widening income
distribution and wealth gaps, a
trend projec...
Big challenges lay ahead (4)
10
Geopolitical
transition
• Big changes afoot in
economic power and
populations
• A more mul...
What do these challenges mean for STI?
11
• Changing demand for innovation
• Ageing societies, areas of population growth ...
12
Megatrends
& Technology
Trends
for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Urgency of policy action
Science...
A large number of technologies are emerging
13
Emerging technologies
Internet of Things
Big data analytics
Artificial intelligence
Neurotechnologies
Nano/microsatellites
Nanomaterials
Additiv...
Digital technologies (1)
15
Internet of Things
• Reduce electricity waste through smart grids that
utilise real-time energ...
Digital technologies (2)
16
Artificial intelligence
• Address the needs of ageing
societies through AI-enabled social
robo...
Energy and environment
17
Advanced energy
storage technologies
• Allow more energy to
be sourced from
renewables by
balanc...
Advanced materials
18
Additive manufacturing
• Increase efficiency in production
through the integration of product
design...
Biotechnologies
19
Neurotechnologies
• Offer great promise in
diagnosis and therapy for
healthy ageing and general
human e...
How can we realise the potential of these technologies?
20
• Ensuring the benefits are widely distributed
• Technology/kno...
21
Megatrends
& Technology
Trends
for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Capacity of governments
to inter...
22
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
R&D has fallen behind other policy priorities in many countries
Source:...
France
United
Kingdom
Germany
Unites
States
Sweden
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 201...
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Could increasingly generous R&D tax incentives jeopardize our fundamental ...
0
20
40
60
80
100
Industry
High-tech
manufacturing
High-knowledge
market services
Primary and
resource-based
industries
La...
26
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Most relevant policy ins...
27
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Public research has shifted towards
universities …
Public R&D, OECD, % ...
28
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
The trend is poised to last:
STI policy is focusing on immediate econom...
29
Megatrends
& Technology
Trends
for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Capacity of governments
to inter...
30
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
More responsible R&I policies encourage a greater intertwining of scien...
31
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Open science is on the march
Number of
papers, 2000-13
Source: Based on...
International knowledge networks are more diverse
32Source: OECD (2013), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard ...
33
Highest expected citation impact of scientific authors by mobility profile
Based on the median Scimago Journal Rank (SJ...
Networks, clusters
and transfers
ICT and Internet
infrastructures Skills for innovation
Top half
OECD
Bottom
half OECD
100...
35
http://oe.cd/STIOutlook
• Global megatrends and societal challenges highlight the need for some big
solutions and radic...
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
36
Thank you for your attention
Please see the participant’s package for f...
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Conference on the knowledge base for research and innovation policy by Andrew Wyckoff, Director for Science, Technology and Innovation at the OECD

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On March 2, Andrew Wyckoff, Director for Science, Technology and Innovation at the OECD, presented the OECD’s analysis of what future research and innovation policy will look like. A number of foresight analyses conducted in a Norwegian and Nordic context were also presented.

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Conference on the knowledge base for research and innovation policy by Andrew Wyckoff, Director for Science, Technology and Innovation at the OECD

  1. 1. THE OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 Andrew Wyckoff Director, Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation OECD 2 March 2017 Oslo Norway 1
  2. 2. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 “What’s new in the field of science, technology and innovation policy? “ International review based on latest policy information and indicators Unique policy questionnaire A 20-year tradition. Every 2 years. New in 2016’s edition: 10-15 year horizon scan Megatrends for STI Key emerging technologies Future research systems 2
  3. 3. ONLINE CONTENT ~ 40 policy profiles Cross-country comparison of key STI policy orientation, instruments and governance Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 3 BOOK and eBOOK Megatrends for STI Future technology trends The future of science systems Recent trends in STI policies International benchmarking and recent national STI policy developments 52 country profiles ONLINE CONTENT STI e-Outlook STI Policy mapping Statistical platform ONLINE INFRASTRUCTURES
  4. 4. Main messages of the STI Outlook 2016 4 • We’re facing pressing, global challenges • From climate change to growing inequalities • STI can contribute to solutions • Need to harness some of the emerging S&T forces • But they won’t happen automatically and there’s no guarantee they’ll contribute to solutions – they could even make matters worse • Technology development and diffusion needs to be open • International, citizen-oriented, interdisciplinary, public-private • Public research plays pivotal roles • Yet public R&D budgets are falling • Will the promises of a more open science be realised?
  5. 5. 5 Megatrends & Technology Trends for STI Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
  6. 6. 8 Megatrends for STI 6
  7. 7. Big challenges lay ahead (1) 7 Unsustainable growth • Climate change and environmental degradation • Resource depletion How can we meet this target?
  8. 8. Big challenges lay ahead (2) 8 Ageing societies • Rising costs of health and social care • Higher dependency ratios • Slower economic growth is likely Productivity slowdown • Declines in knowledge-based capital investments, which underpin innovation-based growth • Slowing of the pace at which innovations diffuse through economies
  9. 9. Big challenges lay ahead (3) 9 Growing inequality • There are widening income distribution and wealth gaps, a trend projected to continue • This undermines social mobility • And poses major political, social and economic risks Too few (good) jobs? • Further hollowing-out of employment and wages? • A growing precariat working in non-standard jobs • Risks from rapid automation
  10. 10. Big challenges lay ahead (4) 10 Geopolitical transition • Big changes afoot in economic power and populations • A more multi-polar world will generate growing uncertainties in the international system • Spectre of rising protectionism?
  11. 11. What do these challenges mean for STI? 11 • Changing demand for innovation • Ageing societies, areas of population growth (esp. Africa) and a growing middle class (esp. Asia) will impact demand • New opportunities for citizens to be engaged • Changing supply factors • Environmental challenges => STI for less resource-intensive production and a circular economy • Different skills are needed => STEM, but many complementary skills • Shift in the nature of capital => More intangible capital • Grand challenges that need to be addressed • Science and innovation will need to make an important contribution • Highlights the need for interdisciplinarity, international R&D cooperation, international technology diffusion, public-private partnerships – but a risk of declining government funding.
  12. 12. 12 Megatrends & Technology Trends for STI Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Urgency of policy action Science and innovation are key
  13. 13. A large number of technologies are emerging 13 Emerging technologies
  14. 14. Internet of Things Big data analytics Artificial intelligence Neurotechnologies Nano/microsatellites Nanomaterials Additive manufacturing Advanced energy storage technologies Synthetic biology Blockchain 14 10 disruptive technologies for the (near?) future
  15. 15. Digital technologies (1) 15 Internet of Things • Reduce electricity waste through smart grids that utilise real-time energy use information Big data analytics • Deliver better healthcare through monitoring and predictive analytics that enable preventive medical interventions
  16. 16. Digital technologies (2) 16 Artificial intelligence • Address the needs of ageing societies through AI-enabled social robots that assist the elderly physically and psychologically Algorithmic trading as a share of total financial trading in the US Blockchain • Prevent corruption and boost efficiencies in the public sector by creating and maintaining trustworthy registries of value transactions
  17. 17. Energy and environment 17 Advanced energy storage technologies • Allow more energy to be sourced from renewables by balancing power fluctuations Micro- and nano- satellites • Improve crop productivity in countries where large satellites are too expensive to deploy Maturity of energy storage technologies Source: IEA (2014), “Energy storage”, IEA Technology Roadmaps, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264211872-en 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Number of satellites (1-50kg) Historical launches Full market potential SpaceWorks projection Launch history and projection for nano- and microsatellites, 2009-20 Source: SpaceWorks (2014), www.sei.aero/eng/papers/uploads/archive/SpaceWorks_Nano_Microsatellite_Market_Assessment_January_2014.pdf.
  18. 18. Advanced materials 18 Additive manufacturing • Increase efficiency in production through the integration of product design, manufacture and delivery New materials: nanotech • Enhance medical diagnostics by improving the sensitivity of tests and reducing the need for specialised equipment
  19. 19. Biotechnologies 19 Neurotechnologies • Offer great promise in diagnosis and therapy for healthy ageing and general human enhancement Synthetic biology • Open up biotechnology to a large number of innovators discovering and applying new applications
  20. 20. How can we realise the potential of these technologies? 20 • Ensuring the benefits are widely distributed • Technology/knowledge diffusion and the scaling of technologies and new firms are often as important as novel technology development • Technological change creates winners & losers. Policy should address distribution effects, in particular in helping workers adjust • Good governance • Emerging technologies carry several risks and uncertainties –their governance is important • Engaging citizens and stakeholders • Support to research and innovation • Public research plays pivotal roles in underpinning all of these technologies by producing new knowledge and nurturing skills • But the linking of research and innovation, and the scaling and diffusion of innovations, are key too.
  21. 21. 21 Megatrends & Technology Trends for STI Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Capacity of governments to intervene? Competing policy priorities and agendas (financial resources?) Urgency of policy action Science and innovation are key
  22. 22. 22 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 R&D has fallen behind other policy priorities in many countries Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds; OECD National Accounts Database. Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of total government expenditures, 2000 and 2015
  23. 23. France United Kingdom Germany Unites States Sweden 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Chinese Taipei EU28 Mexico Norway 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Denmark Korea Austria Finland Iceland 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 23 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Public R&D budgets are likely to plateau around current ratios Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of GDP Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds.
  24. 24. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Could increasingly generous R&D tax incentives jeopardize our fundamental research? Change in R&D tax costs (% annual growth) and the share of public support going to firms (% point) , 2006-14 or nearest years available Source: Based on OECD R&D Tax Incentive Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/rd-tax-stats.htm, July 2016; OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/msti.htm, June 2016; OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds. There is emerging evidence of more public support going to firms – and away from public research - due to more generous R&D tax incentives More support given to firms (and less to public research) More generous tax concessions
  25. 25. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Industry High-tech manufacturing High-knowledge market services Primary and resource-based industries Large firms Foreign affiliates Services Medium to low-tech manufacturing Low-knowledge services Non-resource-based manufacturing industries SMEs Domestic firms 0 20 40 60 80 100 Industry High-tech manufacturing High-knowledge market services Primary and resource-based industries Large firms Foreign affiliates Services Medium to low-tech manufacturing Low-knowledge services Non-resource-based manufacturing industries SMEs Domestic firms Source: OECD (2016), “Norway”, in OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_outlook-2016-61-en Business R&D is driven by large domestic industrial firms 25 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Structural composition of BERD, 2013, as a % of total BERD performed by sector Country Profile 0 20 40 60 80 100 Industry High-tech manufacturing High-knowledge market services Primary and resource-based industries Large firms Foreign affiliates Services Medium to low-tech manufacturing Low-knowledge services Non-resource-based manufacturing industries SMEs Domestic firms OECD Norway Norway (2007)
  26. 26. 26 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Most relevant policy instruments of funding for business R&D, 2016 Country self-assessment, index (9 = high and increasing relevance to 0 = not used) Source: Based on EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database Country Profile 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Competitive grants Debt financing and risk-sharing mechanisms Repayable advances Technology consulting Innovation vouchers Equity financing Public procurement Tax incentives for business R&D Tax incentives for IP revenues and other profits Other tax base Norway OECD median Direct funding Indirect funding
  27. 27. 27 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Public research has shifted towards universities … Public R&D, OECD, % of GDP Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) Database, June 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/msti. Higher education Government Funding by industry, OECD, USD million 2010 PPP … that are increasingly relying on private funding
  28. 28. 28 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 The trend is poised to last: STI policy is focusing on immediate economic imperatives and policy efficiency gains Source: Based on EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database STI policy priority index, 2016 compared to 2014
  29. 29. 29 Megatrends & Technology Trends for STI Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Capacity of governments to intervene? Competing policy priorities and agendas (financial resources?) Shaping future R&D and innovation policy agendas? Opening science Building international cooperation Urgency of policy action Science and innovation are key
  30. 30. 30 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 More responsible R&I policies encourage a greater intertwining of science and citizen Policy mix for addressing societal challenges Gender balance Building an innovation culture New RRI governance arrangements Percentage of policy initiatives newly introduced, substantially revised or repealed over the period 2014-16 Source: Based on country responses to the EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database
  31. 31. 31 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Open science is on the march Number of papers, 2000-13 Source: Based on Laakso, M. and B.-C. Björk (2012), “Anatomy of open access publishing: A study of longitudinal development and internal structure”, BMC Medicine, Vol. 10, p. 124, http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/124, and website of the Open Access Scholarly Publications Association (OASPA), http://oaspa.org/growth-of-fully-oa-journals-using-a-cc-by-license/.
  32. 32. International knowledge networks are more diverse 32Source: OECD (2013), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013: Innovation for Growth, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2013-en. Internationally co-authored articles Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
  33. 33. 33 Highest expected citation impact of scientific authors by mobility profile Based on the median Scimago Journal Rank (SJR) score of 2013, mobility patterns over 1996-2013 Source: OECD (2015), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en. International mobility is a major channel for knowledge circulation, if not the first Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
  34. 34. Networks, clusters and transfers ICT and Internet infrastructures Skills for innovation Top half OECD Bottom half OECD 100 0 200 150 50 b. Interactions and skills for innovation Networks, clusters and transfers ICT and Internet infrastructures Skills for innovation Top half OECD Bottom half OECD 100 0 200 150 50 b. Interactions and skills for innovation Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Normalised index of performance relative to the median values in the OECD area (Index median = 100) Source: OECD (2016), “Norway", in OECD STI Outlook 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_outlook-2016-61-en Country Profile 34 Top/Bottom 5 OECD values Middle range of OECD values OECD median Norway Universities and public research R&D and innovation in firms Innovative entrepreneurship Top half OECD Bottom half OECD 100 0 200 150 50 a. Competences and capacity to innovate
  35. 35. 35 http://oe.cd/STIOutlook • Global megatrends and societal challenges highlight the need for some big solutions and radical changes, including in our STI policies. • There is a risk of greater protectionism that could threaten future international cooperation for R&D and innovation and international mobility. • At the same time, new and emerging technologies will have a deep impact on economies and societies. Although we can already anticipate their disruption, it is still difficult to know precisely what form and scale this will take. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 • There are serious concerns about declining public funding for R&D and innovation, and the situation could deteriorate further with austerity and ageing societies.
  36. 36. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 36 Thank you for your attention Please see the participant’s package for further details Contact us at sandrine.kergroach@oecd.org http://oe.cd/STIOutlook

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