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A.T. Kearney 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty

Kearney
Kearney

2017 could be a pivotal year for logistics. Demand patterns are shifting, technological advances are altering industry economics, and new competitors are challenging old business models. This year could bring significant moves that reshape individual sectors and even the industry as a whole. Major business combinations, large-scale shifts in distribution flows, deep capacity cuts, massive infrastructure investments–anything is possible. Here are the ten key takeaways from the 2017 State of Logistics report, as well as the four potential scenarios for the future of logistics.

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Accelerating into Uncertainty
10 Key Takeaways
Download full report
With significant moves reshaping logistics
sectors and perhaps the entire industry, 2017
could turn out to be a pivotal year. Demand
patterns are shifting as technological advances
alter industry economics, creating opportunities
for new competitors to challenge old business
models. Here are the 10 Key Takeaways
from the 2017 State of Logistics Report.
2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty
1. Macroeconomics:
optimism in our minds
but uncertainty
in the books.
2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty
Download full report
The year started on an optimistic note,
with the International Monetary Fund
predicting 3.5% worldwide growth.
Positive signs include declining
unemployment, rising incomes,
and burgeoning consumer and
business confidence but economic
activity disappoints and prolonged
cognitive dissonance
vexes decision-makers.
2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty
Download full report
2. Motor carriers:
back in gear with rate recovery
and new equipment
2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty
Download full report
Carriers idled 14,000 trucks in 2016, but orders for
new Class 8 trucks doubled in the second half of the year,
which could indicate carriers believe the worst is over.
2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty
Sources: FTR Associates, Monthly Class 8 Net Orders
Class 8 net orders
(thousand)
10
0
30
20
40
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Download full report

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A.T. Kearney 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty

  • 2. Download full report With significant moves reshaping logistics sectors and perhaps the entire industry, 2017 could turn out to be a pivotal year. Demand patterns are shifting as technological advances alter industry economics, creating opportunities for new competitors to challenge old business models. Here are the 10 Key Takeaways from the 2017 State of Logistics Report. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty
  • 3. 1. Macroeconomics: optimism in our minds but uncertainty in the books. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 4. The year started on an optimistic note, with the International Monetary Fund predicting 3.5% worldwide growth. Positive signs include declining unemployment, rising incomes, and burgeoning consumer and business confidence but economic activity disappoints and prolonged cognitive dissonance vexes decision-makers. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 5. 2. Motor carriers: back in gear with rate recovery and new equipment 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 6. Carriers idled 14,000 trucks in 2016, but orders for new Class 8 trucks doubled in the second half of the year, which could indicate carriers believe the worst is over. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Sources: FTR Associates, Monthly Class 8 Net Orders Class 8 net orders (thousand) 10 0 30 20 40 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Sep-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Jun-16 May-16 Apr-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Jan-16 Dec-15 Nov-15 Oct-15 Sep-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Jun-15 May-15 Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Download full report
  • 7. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Semi-autonomous models such as truck platooning will soon take to the roads, and electric truck engines are in the works. These innovations would reduce the impact of fuel prices and wages on carriers’ costs and shipping rates. Download full report
  • 8. 3. Parcel delivery: demand for e-commerce reshaping networks and relationships 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 9. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Three trends will reshape the sector over the next few years: a shift to regional distribution networks, reconfiguring of route systems, and an ongoing battle for last-mile dominance. Source: A.T. Kearney analysis US parcel market by customer segment: size and growth ($ billion) US parcel market by product type: size and growth ($ billion) 2015 2019e 2015 2019e 36.9 48.8 35.3 6.3 78.4 93.1 36.4 7.9 62.3 75.7 9.6 6.5 78.4 93.1 10.2 7.2 6.0% 4.4% CAGR 0.8% 7.3% 2.6% 4.4% CAGR 1.6% 5.0% B2C B2B C2C Ground Express Deferred Download full report
  • 10. 4. Rail: another down year, followed by an upturn and a challenge 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 11. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Source (if required): A.T. Kearney analysis Note: YoY is year-on-year. Sources: Association of American Railroads; A.T. Kearney analysis US railroad traffic (Thousand carloads) 240 270 300 310 280 290 250 260 220 230 2017 2016 2015 2014 Dec.Nov.Oct.Sep.Aug.Jul.Jun.MayApr.Mar.Feb.Jan. +8% Rail shipping volumes fell 5% in 2016, and revenues dropped 7% with slack demand and soft pricing in key sectors. Hope and challenge: shipping volumes grew in early 2017 and operating models are up for change. Download full report
  • 12. 5. Water: a stormy year of realignment and expensive investments 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 13. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Shipping capacity growth has greatly outpaced demand and continues to threaten livelihood of carriers. Note: TEU is 20-foot equivalent unit. Numbers may not resolve due to rounding. Sources: Alphaliner; A.T. Kearney analysis Global container shipping capacity (million TEU and TEU per ship) 33% 5,100 – 10,000 14% 10,000 – 13,300 14% 13,300 – 17,999 6% 18,000+ 12% 0 – 1,999 26% 2,000 – 5,099 32% 5,100 – 10,000 23% 0 – 1,999 44% 2,000 – 5,099 2017: 21.9 2007: 8.8 Download full report
  • 14. 6. Air freight: rates remaining moderate with prospects looking good 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 15. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Volumes rose 9.8% in 2016, and ripple effects carried over into 2017, lifting air shipping rates 20% in the first quarter, but still 25% below 2015 levels. Notes: Intel shows average of all-in air freight buy rates paid by forwarders to airlines for standard deferred airport-to-airport air freight services. YoY is year-on-year. Source: Drewry’s Sea & Air Shipper Insight Drewry Air Freight Index from Shanghai to Los Angeles ($ per kilo) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 May-17Jan-17Sep-16May-16Jan-16Sep-15May-15Jan-15 Download full report
  • 16. 7. Pipeline: demand improving and incentives to invest rising 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 17. The pipeline industry retrenched in 2016 as volumes and rates flattened under pressure from low oil prices. Pipeline companies conserved capital, and the newfound fiscal discipline positions operators to benefit from improving demand. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 18. 8. Freight forwarding: disruption stalking a slumping sector 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 19. Forwarders face more service demands as e-commerce adds complexity to supply chains and shippers seek greater transparency and reliability along with advanced routing capabilities. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 20. 9. Third-party logistics: one-stop shops and control towers—some assembly required 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 21. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty The industry is shifting from a transactional business model focused on discrete services toward an integrated model of one-stop shops for end-to-end logistics services. Download full report
  • 22. 10. Warehousing: growing pains at the heart of the supply chain 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 23. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Rates are up, space availability is at a record low of 8%; yet profit margins, ranging from 3 to 6%, prevent investments and inhibit a sustainable future. Source: A.T. Kearney analysis US warehouse availability (%) Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0 –10% Download full report
  • 24. Rapid technological change and new business models are driving logistics toward a fully digital, connected, and flexible supply chain optimized to meet rising consumer expectations of immediacy, personalization, and convenience. Predictive analytics, the Internet of Things, on-demand logistics, alternative energy, autonomous solutions, and the sharing economy all have a role to play in the next-generation supply chain. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty Download full report
  • 25. 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into Uncertainty For more insights and strategic implications from the 2017 State of Logistics Report, as well as the four potential scenarios or the future of logistics, download the full report. Download full report