Presentation 5
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This document discusses forecasting with seasonality. Seasonality refers to periodic fluctuations that repeat over time, such as yearly or quarterly patterns. It is important to account for seasonality when developing forecasts. There are two main ways to incorporate seasonality into forecasts. The first method is a three step process that involves calculating a seasonal index and adjusting the forecast accordingly. The second method is a four step process that also uses a seasonal index to adjust the raw forecast to account for typical seasonal variations. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to calculate seasonal indices and generate seasonal forecasts.
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- Trend analysis refers to collecting and plotting financial data over multiple periods to identify patterns and project future trends. Ratio analysis compares various financial metrics like liquidity, asset management, leverage, and profitability ratios to evaluate a company's performance.
- Specific ratios discussed in the document include the current ratio, quick ratio, inventory turnover, receivables turnover, debt ratio, times interest earned, gross profit margin, net profit margin, return on investment, and return on equity. These ratios are calculated using figures from the sample
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Definition of terms
"Micro business customers" means customers having less investable asset, trading transaction and return from business. They represent the lower class of wholesale banking customer segments of the Bank.
"Wholesale banking" means banking service availed to individual and non- individual business customers, public & institutional customers.
“Agent” means a person contracted by the Bank to facilitate provision of agency banking business service in the name and on behalf of the bank.
“Board” means the supervisory Board of the Bank formed in accordance with Article 10 (2) and 12 of Public Enterprises Proclamation No 25/1992.
“CBEBirr” means a mobile money service owned by CBE that provides services like mobile payment, mobile transfer, and agency banking.
“Credit History” a history of all the pieces of financial information that relates to customer’s life.
“Credit policy” means a general framework approved by the board that spells out and guides the bank’s credit/financing strategic directions and credit /financing decisions.
“Credit Scoring” means judging/evaluating the creditworthiness of a customer based on basic characteristics and past performance in credit and other relationships with Bank.
“Credit” means an arrangement to receive financial services now and pay later.
“Customer” means a person who uses Micro Saving and Lending services.
“Digital Micro Credit” means micro loans that are requested, received and repaid all through mobile phones (or any other appropriate tools) via interaction with a computer system.
“Digital MSL Policy” means a policy document that governs the management of digital micro saving and credit services.
“Financial Transaction” mean an event which involves money or payment, such as deposit money into a bank account, borrow money to customers.
“Fixed Account” means a saving account locked for a certain period, a minimum of three months, based on the preference of the customers to fulfil their designated plan.
“Know Your Customer(KYC)” means performing a set of due diligence measures undertaken by the Bank to identify a user and the motivation behind the financial activities of customers.
“Lending officials” means any person involved in MSL business of customer acquisition, Credit Worthiness evaluation, Credit operation, Collection, monitoring and decision-making as well as write off and post write off follow up process.
“Level Three agents” means agent hierarchically created as agents in CBE Birr System.
“Level Two agent” means an agent hierarchically created as sole agent in CBE Birr System and cannot create an agent. And managing the cash and balance on CBE Birr account liquidity requirements of its own.
“Loan Pricing” means setting the interest rate, fees, commission, and others to be charged by the Bank on loans, advances, and guarantees extended to customers.
“Merchant” means an entity that contract with an acquirer to originate transactions and accepts cards for payment and displaying b
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2. The research design aims to balance relevance to the research purpose with economical data collection and analysis. Descriptive research studies the characteristics of an individual or group.
3. Primary data is obtained directly from sources like interviews while secondary data has already been collected by others and processed statistically. The study uses both primary and secondary data sources.
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Introduction
· Objectives include 4 distinct components: Audience (who), Behavior (what), Condition (when and where) and Degree (extent of change).
· Objectives must be both observable and measurable to be effective.
· Using words like understand and learn in writing objectives is generally not acceptable as they are difficult to measure.
· Written objectives are a vital part of program development and implementation because they provide the roadmap for designing and delivering health promotion programs.
Characteristics of objectives
· Specific – target a specific area for improvement.
· Measurable – quantify or at least suggest an indicator of progress.
· Assignable – specify who will do it.
· Realistic – state what results can realistically be achieved, given available resources.
· Time-related – specify when the result(s) can be achieved.
Samples
· Learning Objective
· After attending a 1-hour workshop on HIV, San Marcos high school students will list five risk factors for HIV infection, without error.
· Behavioral Objective
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· Process
· HIV program coordinators will mail permission forms to all high school students’ parents prior to implementing the HIV program.
· Environmental
· Four prevention pamphlet stations will be available in each San Marcos high school by August 2015.
· Program/Outcome
· Within the next five years, the rate of HIV infection in San Marcos high school students will decrease by 10%.
Audience (who)
· Describe the intended target for the intervention
· Example: The high school student…
· Example: HIV program participants…
· Example: Employees of Google…
Behavior (what)
· Describes what a participant of a program will do
· Can also describe what will be done in an environmental of outcome objective
· The “behavior” can include demonstration of knowledge or skills in any of the domains of learning: cognitive, psychomotor, affective, or interpersonal
· Example: … will write a report…
· Example: …will describe the steps…
· Example: …will list the steps…
· Cognitive domain
· Emphasizes remembering or reproducing something which has presumably been learned
· Deal with what a learner should know, understand, comprehend, solve, spell, critique, etc.
· Psychomotor domain
· Emphasizes some muscular motor skill, some manipulation of material and objects, or some act that requires a neuromuscular coordination
· Concerned with how a learner moves or controls his/her body
· Affective domain
· Composed of two different types of behaviors: reflexive (attitudes) and voluntary reactions and actions (values)
· Stages: perception, decision, action and evaluation
· Interpersonal domain
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Chapter 4 THE ADJUSTMENT PROCESSPrinciples of Accounting, Vo
Chapter 4 THE ADJUSTMENT PROCESS
Principles of Accounting, Volume 1: Financial Accounting
PowerPoint Image Slideshow
Chapter Outline
4.1 Explain the Concepts and Guidelines Affecting Adjusting Entries
4.2 Discuss the Adjustment Process and Illustrate Common Types of Adjusting Entries
4.3 Record and Post the Common Types of Adjusting Entries
4.4 Use the Ledger Balances to Prepare an Adjusted Trial Balance
4.5 Prepare Financial Statements Using the Adjusted Trial Balance
Module 4.1 Explain the Concepts and Guidelines Affecting Adjusting
Entries
Public companies use either US generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) or International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), as allowed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations.
Companies, public or private, using US GAAP or IFRS prepare their financial statements using the rules of accrual accounting.
With accrual basis accounting, revenues and expenses are recorded in the accounting period in which they were earned or incurred, no matter when cash receipts or payments occur. Individually, these are the revenue recognition principle and the expense recognition principle. Collectively they are known as the matching principle.
The accrual method standardizes reporting information for comparability purposes.
Comparable information is important to external users of information trying to make investment or lending decisions, and to internal users trying to make decisions about company performance, budgeting, and growth strategies.
Some nonpublic companies may choose to use cash basis accounting rather than accrual basis accounting to report financial information.
Teacher Notes: In this chapter, we look at Steps 5, 6, and 7 of the accounting cycle, but to understand why these stages occur, it is first necessary to understand the following concepts: accrual accounting, accounting period, and calendar versus fiscal year.
3
An accounting period breaks down company financial information into specific time spans and can cover a month, a quarter, a half-year, or a full year.
Public companies governed by GAAP are required to present quarterly (three-month) accounting period financial statements called 10-Qs.
Most public and private companies keep monthly, quarterly, and yearly (annual) period information. This is helpful for users needing up-to-date financial data to make decisions about company investment and growth.
Accounting Period
A company may choose its yearly reporting period to be based on a calendar or fiscal year.
A calendar year shows financial data from January 1 to December 31 of a specific year.
A fiscal year is a twelve-month reporting cycle that can begin in any month and records financial data for that consecutive twelve-month period.
An interim period is any reporting period shorter than a full year (fiscal or calendar). They can be monthly, quarterly, or half-year statements. The information contained on these statements is timelier than waiting for ...
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This document discusses demand management in supply chain management. It covers objectives of demand management like gathering consumer information and identifying partners. It defines types of demand like independent and dependent demand. It also covers forecasting techniques like qualitative methods like jury of executive opinion and quantitative methods like time series models, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis. The document emphasizes the strategic importance of forecasting for human resources, supply chain management, and capacity planning.
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This document discusses demand management in supply chain management. It covers objectives of demand management like gathering consumer information and identifying partners. It defines types of demand like independent and dependent demand. It also covers forecasting techniques like qualitative methods like jury of executive opinion and quantitative methods like time series models, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis. The document emphasizes the strategic importance of forecasting for human resources, supply chain management, and capacity planning.
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Definition of terms
"Micro business customers" means customers having less investable asset, trading transaction and return from business. They represent the lower class of wholesale banking customer segments of the Bank.
"Wholesale banking" means banking service availed to individual and non- individual business customers, public & institutional customers.
“Agent” means a person contracted by the Bank to facilitate provision of agency banking business service in the name and on behalf of the bank.
“Board” means the supervisory Board of the Bank formed in accordance with Article 10 (2) and 12 of Public Enterprises Proclamation No 25/1992.
“CBEBirr” means a mobile money service owned by CBE that provides services like mobile payment, mobile transfer, and agency banking.
“Credit History” a history of all the pieces of financial information that relates to customer’s life.
“Credit policy” means a general framework approved by the board that spells out and guides the bank’s credit/financing strategic directions and credit /financing decisions.
“Credit Scoring” means judging/evaluating the creditworthiness of a customer based on basic characteristics and past performance in credit and other relationships with Bank.
“Credit” means an arrangement to receive financial services now and pay later.
“Customer” means a person who uses Micro Saving and Lending services.
“Digital Micro Credit” means micro loans that are requested, received and repaid all through mobile phones (or any other appropriate tools) via interaction with a computer system.
“Digital MSL Policy” means a policy document that governs the management of digital micro saving and credit services.
“Financial Transaction” mean an event which involves money or payment, such as deposit money into a bank account, borrow money to customers.
“Fixed Account” means a saving account locked for a certain period, a minimum of three months, based on the preference of the customers to fulfil their designated plan.
“Know Your Customer(KYC)” means performing a set of due diligence measures undertaken by the Bank to identify a user and the motivation behind the financial activities of customers.
“Lending officials” means any person involved in MSL business of customer acquisition, Credit Worthiness evaluation, Credit operation, Collection, monitoring and decision-making as well as write off and post write off follow up process.
“Level Three agents” means agent hierarchically created as agents in CBE Birr System.
“Level Two agent” means an agent hierarchically created as sole agent in CBE Birr System and cannot create an agent. And managing the cash and balance on CBE Birr account liquidity requirements of its own.
“Loan Pricing” means setting the interest rate, fees, commission, and others to be charged by the Bank on loans, advances, and guarantees extended to customers.
“Merchant” means an entity that contract with an acquirer to originate transactions and accepts cards for payment and displaying b
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This document discusses demand forecasting in supply chain management. Demand forecasts are critical for supply chain planning activities like production, inventory management, and workforce planning. The document outlines different forecasting time horizons and various qualitative and quantitative approaches to demand forecasting. Qualitative methods include jury of executive opinion, Delphi method, sales force composite, and market surveys. Quantitative time-series methods include naive approach, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and seasonal adjustments to account for trends and patterns in historical demand data. Accurate demand forecasting is essential for optimizing supply chain operations and responsiveness to customer needs.
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This document discusses research methodology and includes the following key points:
1. Research methodology provides a systematic way to solve research problems scientifically and logically. It involves studying the research problem and the reasoning behind it.
2. The research design aims to balance relevance to the research purpose with economical data collection and analysis. Descriptive research studies the characteristics of an individual or group.
3. Primary data is obtained directly from sources like interviews while secondary data has already been collected by others and processed statistically. The study uses both primary and secondary data sources.
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The ABCD model for writing objectives
Introduction
· Objectives include 4 distinct components: Audience (who), Behavior (what), Condition (when and where) and Degree (extent of change).
· Objectives must be both observable and measurable to be effective.
· Using words like understand and learn in writing objectives is generally not acceptable as they are difficult to measure.
· Written objectives are a vital part of program development and implementation because they provide the roadmap for designing and delivering health promotion programs.
Characteristics of objectives
· Specific – target a specific area for improvement.
· Measurable – quantify or at least suggest an indicator of progress.
· Assignable – specify who will do it.
· Realistic – state what results can realistically be achieved, given available resources.
· Time-related – specify when the result(s) can be achieved.
Samples
· Learning Objective
· After attending a 1-hour workshop on HIV, San Marcos high school students will list five risk factors for HIV infection, without error.
· Behavioral Objective
· Given access to free condoms in the nurse’s office, San Marcos high school students will acquire a condom from the nurse’s office, each time they have sex.
· Process
· HIV program coordinators will mail permission forms to all high school students’ parents prior to implementing the HIV program.
· Environmental
· Four prevention pamphlet stations will be available in each San Marcos high school by August 2015.
· Program/Outcome
· Within the next five years, the rate of HIV infection in San Marcos high school students will decrease by 10%.
Audience (who)
· Describe the intended target for the intervention
· Example: The high school student…
· Example: HIV program participants…
· Example: Employees of Google…
Behavior (what)
· Describes what a participant of a program will do
· Can also describe what will be done in an environmental of outcome objective
· The “behavior” can include demonstration of knowledge or skills in any of the domains of learning: cognitive, psychomotor, affective, or interpersonal
· Example: … will write a report…
· Example: …will describe the steps…
· Example: …will list the steps…
· Cognitive domain
· Emphasizes remembering or reproducing something which has presumably been learned
· Deal with what a learner should know, understand, comprehend, solve, spell, critique, etc.
· Psychomotor domain
· Emphasizes some muscular motor skill, some manipulation of material and objects, or some act that requires a neuromuscular coordination
· Concerned with how a learner moves or controls his/her body
· Affective domain
· Composed of two different types of behaviors: reflexive (attitudes) and voluntary reactions and actions (values)
· Stages: perception, decision, action and evaluation
· Interpersonal domain
· Emphasizes learner skills (not attitude or knowledge) associated with interpersonal exchanges
· How a learner interacts ...
FABM-Horizontal-vertiexplain the principles and purposes of taxationexplain t...
This document discusses financial statement analysis techniques for evaluating the financial position, performance, and prospects of a business. It describes horizontal analysis, which examines changes in financial statement items over multiple periods, and vertical analysis, which expresses financial statement items as percentages of a total amount. Horizontal analysis calculates monetary and percentage changes, while vertical analysis shows the composition of assets/financing for the balance sheet and how net sales are allocated to expenses for the income statement. Examples are provided to illustrate calculating horizontal and vertical analyses. The learning competency is to perform horizontal and vertical analyses of financial statements for a single proprietorship.
L 11 the forecasting function
Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date.
Focus forecasting bmb
Focus forecasting is a simple forecasting technique that uses simulation rules and past sales data to generate forecasts. It evaluates different forecasting models and selects the one with the least error. Some example rules include forecasting the next quarter's sales to be the same as the last quarter's sales for non-seasonal items, or forecasting the next quarter's sales to be a percentage increase or decrease from the same quarter last year's sales for items with modest seasonality. The technique is useful for items with irregular demand histories. While simple, it can produce reasonably accurate forecasts without complex models. Some limitations are the small sample sizes used and the lack of theoretical basis or ability to predict performance versus other techniques. Companies like Oracle and World
Chapter 4 THE ADJUSTMENT PROCESSPrinciples of Accounting, Vo
Chapter 4 THE ADJUSTMENT PROCESS
Principles of Accounting, Volume 1: Financial Accounting
PowerPoint Image Slideshow
Chapter Outline
4.1 Explain the Concepts and Guidelines Affecting Adjusting Entries
4.2 Discuss the Adjustment Process and Illustrate Common Types of Adjusting Entries
4.3 Record and Post the Common Types of Adjusting Entries
4.4 Use the Ledger Balances to Prepare an Adjusted Trial Balance
4.5 Prepare Financial Statements Using the Adjusted Trial Balance
Module 4.1 Explain the Concepts and Guidelines Affecting Adjusting
Entries
Public companies use either US generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) or International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), as allowed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations.
Companies, public or private, using US GAAP or IFRS prepare their financial statements using the rules of accrual accounting.
With accrual basis accounting, revenues and expenses are recorded in the accounting period in which they were earned or incurred, no matter when cash receipts or payments occur. Individually, these are the revenue recognition principle and the expense recognition principle. Collectively they are known as the matching principle.
The accrual method standardizes reporting information for comparability purposes.
Comparable information is important to external users of information trying to make investment or lending decisions, and to internal users trying to make decisions about company performance, budgeting, and growth strategies.
Some nonpublic companies may choose to use cash basis accounting rather than accrual basis accounting to report financial information.
Teacher Notes: In this chapter, we look at Steps 5, 6, and 7 of the accounting cycle, but to understand why these stages occur, it is first necessary to understand the following concepts: accrual accounting, accounting period, and calendar versus fiscal year.
3
An accounting period breaks down company financial information into specific time spans and can cover a month, a quarter, a half-year, or a full year.
Public companies governed by GAAP are required to present quarterly (three-month) accounting period financial statements called 10-Qs.
Most public and private companies keep monthly, quarterly, and yearly (annual) period information. This is helpful for users needing up-to-date financial data to make decisions about company investment and growth.
Accounting Period
A company may choose its yearly reporting period to be based on a calendar or fiscal year.
A calendar year shows financial data from January 1 to December 31 of a specific year.
A fiscal year is a twelve-month reporting cycle that can begin in any month and records financial data for that consecutive twelve-month period.
An interim period is any reporting period shorter than a full year (fiscal or calendar). They can be monthly, quarterly, or half-year statements. The information contained on these statements is timelier than waiting for ...
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This document discusses exponential smoothing methods for forecasting, including simple and double exponential smoothing. Simple exponential smoothing weights past observations exponentially to forecast future values, with more recent observations having the greatest influence. Double exponential smoothing also accounts for trends in the data by incorporating a trend component in addition to the smoothing component. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating forecasts using simple and double exponential smoothing methods.
Presentation 4
This document discusses trend forecasting techniques. It describes trend forecasting as using statistical methods and historical time series data to predict future patterns. There are three main steps: 1) selecting a trend equation like a linear equation, 2) calculating forecasts based on the equation, and 3) estimating the forecast accuracy using measures like absolute forecast error and coefficient of determination. An example is provided on forecasting product demand for future months using past monthly demand data and trend line projections.
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This document discusses different average-based forecasting methods including simple average, moving average, weighted average, and cumulative average. It provides examples and formulas for calculating forecasts for each method. The simple average method calculates the forecast as the average of all past data points. The moving average method uses the average of the most recent data points. The weighted average assigns different weights to each data point. The cumulative average adds the most recent actual value to the cumulative sum of weighted past increases.
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Presentation 5
- 1. TOPIC V. FORECASTING WITH SEASONALITY Content 1. Forecasting with seasonality: theoretical and practical aspects
- 2. Seasonality Seasonality is any cyclical or periodic fluctuation in a time-series that repeats itself at the same phase of the cycle or period. Seasonal variation is a component of a time series which is defined as the repetitive and predictable movement around the trend line in one year or less. Seasonal variation is detected by measuring the quantity of interest for small time intervals, such as days, weeks, months or quarters.
- 3. Seasonality example Seasonal demand has a pattern that repeats. Demand for clothing has a seasonal pattern that repeats every 12 months. Some companies may analyze annual seasonal patterns quarterly, monthly or weekly. Demand with an annual seasonal pattern has a cycle that is 12 periods long, if the periods are months, or 4 periods long if the periods are quarters.
- 4. Seasonal index is an average that can be used to compare an actual observation relative to what it would be if there was no seasonal variation. Seasonal index measures how much the actual data for a particular period tends to be above (or below) the average value.
- 5. Seasonal index and then the forecast with seasonality can be defined in two ways. • The first way includes 3 steps:
- 8. For example: a company must develop forecasts for the next year. It has collected statistical data on ice cream sales for 12 months. Calculate the seasonal index for each month for the next year and forecast of ice cream sales for each month for the next year, if the company has annual forecast of ice cream for next year to be 1092 thousand dollars.
- 11. The second way which can be used to determine the seasonal index and then the forecast with seasonality includes 4 steps:
- 15. Example 2: a company must develop forecasts for the next year’s quarterly retail sales. It has collected quarterly retail sales for the past three years (table 4). It has also forecast total retail sales for next year to be 382 thousand dollars. What is the retail sales forecast for each quarter of 2015?