This presentation shared preliminary findings from the Malawi Zero Hunger and Malnutrition Strategic Review (ZHMSR), which is a government-led, independent, analytical, and consultative exercise to identify the key challenges Malawi faces in achieving the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2), to "end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture" by 2030. The results were presented at the Lilongwe office of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) by Dr. Grace Kumchulesi, from the ZHMSR research team. The seminar is part of IFPRI Malawi's Brown Bag Research Seminar series, which allows for presentation of early research results for discussion and feedback.

1. Malawi Zero Hunger and
Malnutrition Strategic Review
Preliminary Results
Brown Bag Seminar Presentation
IFPRI Lilongwe
6 June 2018

2. Presentation outline
•Overview – Background, aim and scope
of analyses
•Data and methods; summary of findings
•Six strategic themes emerging from
analysis
•Next steps

3. Background
• The Zero Hunger Challenge is an international multi-level and multi-
sectoral call for action made by the Secretary-General of the UN in
2012 towards a vision of a world without hunger
• Zero Hunger and Malnutrition Strategic Review (ZHMSR) in Malawi
• Government-led, independent, analytical, and consultative process
• Brings together different stakeholders around efforts to eliminate food and
nutrition insecurity
• The work is supported by a structure:
• The Lead Convener, Rt. Hon. Malewezi
• An Advisory Board - about 30 members
• A Technical Team – 5 members
• The secretariat, made up of WFP, UNICEF, FAO, RCO
• A Research Team

4. Aim of Zero Hunger and Malnutrition Strategic
Review (ZHMSR) in Malawi
• Identify a set of prioritized actions to achieve SDG 2 by 2030
• End hunger, achieve food security & improved nutrition,
and promote sustainable agriculture
Scope of analyses:
• Situation analysis (incl. trends, policies, programs,
institutions, and resource flows)
• Project likely costs of inaction and benefits of specific actions
to achieve SDG 2
• Empirical analyses – Household survey data and modeling
• Prioritize investments based on evidence, and recommend
strategic actions

5. Situation analysis
on hunger and malnutrition
in Malawi

6. Situation analysis - Data and Methods
• Profile of food security and nutrition using IHS and DHS data
• Review of relevant policy frameworks in terms of their:
• Technical rigor and comprehensiveness
• Coordination and integration
• Institutional architecture to implement policies and strategies –
functionally appropriate?
• Literature review to understand costs and implications for public
investment to achieve SDG 2
• Key Informant Interviews
• District Consultations

7. Nutrition in Malawi - situation analysis
• High rates of child stunting (37%) - But good progress since 2010
• Child wasting rates low (5.4% IHS, 2.7% DHS)
• Overweight young children remain few (4.5%), even in the rural
areas
• Infants judged to be small at birth still common (15.9%)
• Points to need for continued efforts to improve maternal health
• Micronutrients:
• Iron deficiency common in Pre-school children (22%);
• Vitamin A deficiency very low (<5% in all groups);
• Zinc deficiency common (60-66%)
• Share of women who are thin is declining, but share of women
overweight (36.2%) is growing, particularly in rural areas

8. Food security - situation analysis
• Avg. household weekly consumes 7 to 8 of 12 food groups
• 12 food groups: Cereals; Roots and tubers; Pulses, legumes and nuts; Vegetables;
Fruits; Meat and poultry; Fish and seafood; Eggs; Milk and dairy products; Oil and
fats; Sugar, honey, and sweets; and Miscellaneous foods, including condiments
• 60% of households report experiencing some food
insecurity annually
• For many, due to household-level crises – death/illness,
insufficient own-production, loss of income
• But broader shocks also significant driver, e.g., droughts, floods
• Those annually in need of food assistance recently high
• Average 2 million from 2012/13 to 2015/16; 6.7 million in 2016/17
• Reflects in part restricted per capita agricultural resources due to
population growth; coupled with crop production shocks

9. Policy analysis - Food security & Nutrition
• Nutrition policy technically strong
• Policy reforms led by Dept. of Nutrition, HIV and AIDS (DNHA)
• Technically, Malawi’s policies on public health nutrition issues
among the best in Africa
• Food security content in government policies is focused
principally on food production
• Agriculture traditionally seen as responsible for food security
• This conceptualization of food security no longer appropriate
• More and more difficult for HHs to produce food they require
• Farming, yes; but policies need to pay equal attention to
markets and trade to ensure people have access to food
• The food need of Malawi’s growing population will not be
produced without better market incentives for farmers
• Food security is not a sectorally-specific issue; risky to think so

10. Institutional analysis - Nutrition
• DNHA, according to policies in place, should coordinate
actions to address chronic malnutrition
• But little engagement with DNHA by stakeholders from other
sectors
• Policies on nutrition in other sectors do not reference the
coordination role of DNHA
• Donors provide bulk of resources for programs to address
chronic malnutrition, even at the district level
• Limited contributions from government; sustainability
questions arise

11. Institutional analysis - Food security
• MoAIWD responsible for safeguarding access to food
• But, Ministry of Agriculture has limited expertise on food
security beyond agricultural production
• Broader set of actors should be involved
• Industry and trade; social protection; specialized agencies
• With higher-level leadership and coordination
• Several specialized agencies responsible for monitoring
food security or responding to any emerging crises
• Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC);
Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA)
• However, significant capacity constraints hamper their work

12. Initial empirical analyses
Household survey analysis

13. Household survey analyses – data and methods
• Analyzed household surveys to better understand drivers
of malnutrition and food insecurity
• Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) series; Integrated
Household Survey (IHS) series
• Descriptive analyses of characteristics associated with
household’s nutrition and food security
• Econometric analyses of determinants of nutritional
status and food security
• Regression analyses allow improved understanding of
correlations between diverse, multi-sectoral drivers
• Provides a multi-variate analytical framework

14. Conceptual Analytical Framework
• UNICEF conceptual framework of
determinants of nutritional status
in young children
• Basis for organizing analyses
• Three sets of determinants (or drivers):
1. Immediate determinants
• Dietary intake; health status of child
2. Underlying determinants
• Household food security
• Gain insights on food security issues
• Water & sanitation, health services
• Quality of nutritional care received
3. Basic determinants
• Function of how society is organized
Sources: Adapted from UNICEF 1990; Jonsson

15. Drivers of stunting in children 6-23 mo.
Variable DHS 2010 DHS 2016 IHS 2010 IHS 2016
Child-level characteristics
Male child Positive Positive Positive Positive
Age Positive Positive Positive Positive
Low birth-weight Positive Positive
Mother characteristics
Body-mass Index Negative
Pre-natal visits Negative Negative
Post-natal visits Negative
Education Negative Negative
Household characteristics
Food insecurity Negative Positive
Polygamous household Negative
Father’s schooling Negative
Child’s dietary diversity Negative
Protected water Negative
• Here “Positive” indicates higher level or presence of factor is associated with greater
probability of child being stunted, i.e., “Negative” is good
• gains due to improvements in caring practices and public health services
• Data sets unfortunately lack information on child burden of disease; this is highly
correlated with stunting in other contexts

16. Drivers of household food security
Variable
IHS-3 2010 and IHS-4 2016
HH experienced food
insecurity past year
Children have less than
three meals daily
Food insecurity past year n/a Positive
Literate senior woman Negative Negative
Above-median asset ownership Negative Positive/indefinite
Rural Positive/indefinite Positive
Improved sanitation Negative Negative
Owns livestock Negative Negative/indefinite
Landholding area Indefinite Positive/indefinite
Household size Positive Positive
HH has non-farm enterprise Negative/indefinite Negative
Social safety net beneficiary Positive Positive/indefinite
Senior woman works Negative Negative
Shock in past year Positive Positive/indefinite
Central region Positive Positive/indefinite
Southern region Positive Positive
• Here “Positive” indicates higher level or presence of factor is associated
with greater household food insecurity
• HH on social protection are more food insecure

17. Initial empirical analyses
Modeling future impact
of Malawi’s development
options on nutrition
and food security

18. Partial equilibrium modeling of future food
scenarios for Malawi
• Base year is 2005
• Ran scenarios around changing national or regional food
demand or food supply through 2030
• Assessed impact of these changes on food security of
households and how they meet their food needs

19. Economy-wide general equilibrium modeling
• Enable exploration of how future developments in Malawi’s food
systems both affect and are affected by developments elsewhere
in economy e.g. public investment plans, macro-economic policies,
trade reforms, etc
• an assessment of 18 agricultural value-chains in order to identify
which value chains expansion is likely to be most effective at
improving nutrition by diversifying diets
• The Malawi CGE model uses a 2014 Social Accounting Matrix to
describe flows in the economy and the 2010 Integrated Household
Survey to separate the economy into 70 sectors and 13 factors of
production
• The Malawi model contains 15 representative HH groups, separated
into rural and urban consumption quintiles, with rural HHs
separated into farm and nonfarm groups.

20. Economy-wide modeling – Impact of value-chain
development on dietary diversity
• 18 agricultural value-chains
assessed to identify which
are most effective at
diversifying diets
• A more diverse diet is
assumed to be associated
with better nutrition
outcomes
• Results show how effective
expansion of each value-chain
is at diversifying the dietary
patterns of the household
groups in the model
• Cattle/milk, vegetables, and
fruit value-chains rank
highest in providing dietary
diversity
Agricultural
value-chain
Rank – All
households
Rank – Poor rural
households
Maize 16 16
Sorghum, millet 14 18
Rice 15 14
Pulses 8 4
Groundnuts 9 5
Oilseeds 7 6
Cassava 17 17
Potatoes 18 15
Vegetables 1 2
Sugarcane 5 12
Tobacco 4 13
Cotton 11 11
Fruits 3 3
Tea, coffee 10 10
Cattle, milk 2 1
Poultry, goats 13 8
Forestry 6 9
Fishing 12 7

21. STRATEGIC THEMES

22. Strategic Themes from the analyses
• Six emerged from preliminary analyses for Malawi ZHMSR
1. How to sustain recent positive nutrition trends
2. Institutional coordination for action around SDG 2
• Challenges around nutrition and food security inherently cross-sectoral
• Sustained resources need to be assured through strong leadership
3. Agriculture for food security
4. Role of agriculture within the Malawian economy
5. Social protection to respond to food and nutritional needs of the
unproductive or those facing cyclical shocks
6. Structural transformation of Malawi’s economy
• Expanding opportunities for finding good work outside of farming
• Will discuss each briefly   Do these capture the key
issues? Any others?

23. 1. Sustaining recent positive nutrition trends
•Evaluate the contribution of DNHA to
the current positive nutrition trends
•Address the underlying causes of
malnutrition
•Use the positive cultural practices to
promote nutrition

24. 2. Institutional coordination for SDG 2
•Establish the best location for DNHA for
effective multi-sector coordination
•High participation by donors – lack of
financial support by government - What can
we learn from Kenya or Zambia on how to
coordinate the donor?
•Improve sustainability of projects by
improving targeting

25. 3. Agriculture for food security
• Intensify investment in irrigation to improve food production
• Provide livestock security to encourage livestock production
• Reform or eliminate FISP - reduce prices for inputs, long-term loans
from banks for capitalization, provide FISP through Cooperatives,
match the contribution with what they can raise – How do we handle
the FISP money and make it in such a way that it is backed by the
politician?
• Strengthen large-scale production for processing
• Private sector is key and government needs to provide a conducive
environment for value addition and marketing – Which companies can
we learn from?
• how can we overcome the battle between MoAIWD and MoIT on who
should champion market issues (role of political economy)

26. 4. Role of agriculture within the economy
• Agriculture dominates livelihoods and employment in Malawi,
but, many in sector are not productive and are
underemployed
• A hopeful future for Malawi is one with agriculture less
dominant
• Agricultural surpluses can propel growth in other sectors
• Growth and more jobs in industry and services sectors
depends crucially on more productive agriculture supplying
strong markets (e.g. previous slide)
• Subsistence-oriented farming will not generate these
surpluses
• Commercial smallholder farmers likely at center of rural
transformation

27. 5. Role of Social protection
• How to provide support to households that are not
economically productive; or will be unable to remain
productive under economic changes
• Will be a constant element in Malawi’s economic development
• Data shows HH on social protection more food insecure
• Emphasis needed on the role of nutrition services, including
food, at center of support
• For those temporarily affected by food crises, protection
mechanisms need to be put in place for effective response
• Necessary component of building the economic resilience of
vulnerable households in Malawi
• How can we leverage existing social protection systems to better
respond to recurrent food crises?

28. 6. Structural transformation of economy
• Political economy – How do we focus on development-oriented
thought process. What can Malawi learn from Rwanda, Tanzania
and Botswana who have good governance structures?
• Implement the Decentralization Policy – strengthen civil service at
the district level to be able to raise their own income, fund their
own development programs, and attract investors
• What are the viable alternatives over the long-term?
• University curriculums need to be revamped so that the graduates are able
to venture into entrepreneurship and be able to create jobs.
• Support commercial smallholders to expand their production
• But equally provide incentives so many can find work outside of
agriculture, employing their labor more productively than in farming

29. Discussion
•What actionable recommendations should
be made under the 6 strategic themes?
•What other research or data can be included
in this review?
•What further analyses should be done?

30. NEXT STEPS

31. Further research and key recommendations

32. National Stakeholder Consultations
• Planned for mid-July, Lilongwe
• Led by Lead Convener
• Materials: Briefs on each of the themes
• Objectives:
• Engage broad set of stakeholders on the Strategic Themes
• Validate the themes – Do they represent the right strategic direction?
• Exploring the ‘how’ for each theme
• What needs to be done to catalyze action and facilitate implementation?
• Gather insights to guide further consultations and analysis
• About 150 participants
• Government; International community; Private sector; CSOs; NGOs; Researchers;
Faith communities, Media; Traditional groups; Farmers representatives

33. Regional Consultations
• Five planned for between July and August
• Led by Lead Convener
• North; 2 in Central (Kasungu and Lilongwe); Southeast (Zomba);
Southwest (Blantyre)
• Objectives:
• Listen to regional perspectives
• Validate the Strategic Themes – are they in line with regional
understandings of food, agriculture, and nutrition?
• Explore the ‘how’ for each theme
• What needs to be done to catalyze action and facilitate implementation
to see real change for people?
• Gather strategic, technical and personal insights to guide further
consultations and analysis

34. Acknowledgements
The Zero Hunger and Malnutrition
Strategic Review in Malawi
is financially supported
by the United Nations