The document describes a lab exercise focused on estimating population size using two primary methods: density methods and mark-recapture methods. It outlines the objectives, background information, and instructions for methods including calculations for population estimates and 95% confidence intervals. Additionally, the document includes proposed questions for analysis, emphasizing the importance of accurate population estimates in ecology and the assumptions underlying each method.

1. Populations Lab
LAB #3, PART I: ESTIMATING POPULATION SIZE
OBJECTIVE: To estimate population sizes and dynamics, you
will be able to:
1. Compare and contrast methods of estimating population size
(CLO #1)
2. Explain and use simple mathematical models of population
dynamics (CLO #2)
3. Synthesize your research with the primary literature in
ecology (CLO #3)
BACKGROUND INFORMATION:
Estimating the size of populations of organisms is a central
problem in field ecology. It is one of the most basic pieces of
information we can collect and is an important start for other
ecological studies and conservation and management efforts.
There are several ways to evaluate organism count (pop. size) or
density (count/area), which are two means of characterizing
populations
Sometimes, it is sufficient to evaluate organism relative
abundance (relative representation of a species in a particular
location). In that case, an ecologist can use indices. Indices are
anything that can be correlated to the number of organisms in a
given habitat (e. g., feces pellets, browsed branches, tracks,
plant cover, etc.).
When population size is necessary, population estimates can be
developed with a number of sampling and mathematical
methods. Since it is rarely feasible to count an entire
population, ecologists count a portion of the population and

2. then estimate the total population size using mathematical
functions. This can be done a number of ways, but in this
exercise we will use two of the most common: density methods
and mark-recapture methods.
Density method: In this method, ecologists will count the
number of individuals in a prescribed area and then scale this
measurement up to estimate the whole population size. Transect
methods, in which an ecologist traverses a transect and counts
individuals at specific locations along the line, are commonly
used for plants and occasionally for animals.
Density methods require a few key assumptions:
1. The population is confined to a specific area
2. Individuals are readily detectable
3. Count areas are extensive relative to area occupied by
population
Using these assumptions, ecologists use various models to
calculate population size. In this lab, you will use a simple
Seber (1973) model:
where N = the population estimate, N0 = the average number of
organisms found in a plot. And p = the ratio of the individual
plot area to total area (e.g. 25 cm2/820 cm2). Once you have
calculated No, use the equation above to calculate N.
Confidence intervals provide a measure of the precision of our
estimate (population size, N, in this case). A 95% confidence
interval is a range of values that is thought to contain the true
population size 95% of the time…that is, if you repeat your
sampling and confidence interval calculation 100 times, the
confidence intervals will capture the true value 95 of those
times. To calculate the 95% confidence interval we can simply
calculate the upper and lower confidence limits for N0 and then
use those values in the equation above to calculate the upper

3. and lower values of our population estimate, N. Follow these
instructions:
1. Calculate your value for No by taking the average of the
number of individuals in each plot (3 plots for your group, 9
plots for the class). For example, in the image below the
average, No=10.33.
2. Calculate the standard deviation (s) of the three values from
your plots (or 9 values for the class). You can do this in excel
by using the function =STDEV.S(data cell range). (see image on
right). In the example, s= 2.52
3. Divide the standard deviation by the square root of your
sample size, n (i.e. n=3 for your group data, n=9 for the class
data). This gives the standard error of the mean (SE). In the
example,
4. Use the table below to find the t-value (t.05 highlighted in
yellow) for the correct degrees of freedom (df). df is the sample
size minus one (i.e. df=2 for your group data, 8 for the class).
In the example, t.05= 4.30.
5. Use the equation below to calculate the upper and lower
estimates of No. These values fall above and below the No you
calculated earlier.
In the example, this is or an upper value of 17.99 and a lower
value of 2.68
6. Use those two values (we can call them No-upper and No-
lower) with the equation to calculate the upper and lower limits
of the population size estimate (i.e. Nupper and Nlower). In the
example, this is
7. What does this mean? You estimate of population size is N,

4. as originally calculated with No, and you are 95% confident that
the true value of N falls between Nupper and Nlower (i.e.
Nlower < N < Nupper). For the example this means that
88.0<N<590.
8. When you graph your data in a bar graph, the height of the
bar should be your estimate of N. Then, format your 95%
confidence interval bars to the difference between N and
Nupper (or Nlower). Display these CI bars above and below
your estimate of N.
For the example, the estimate of , therefore the length of the
95% confidence interval bars should be 589.9-338.9=251. See
the example graph below.Don’t forget to add an informative
captions…and your graph should also include a bar for the
entire class data set (n=9).
Mark-recapture method: In this method an ecologist captures
animals, marks and releases them, and then repeats the process
at a later time. The ratio of marked to unmarked animals during
later capturing events can be used to estimate the size of the
population.
The mark-recapture method requires a few key assumptions:
1. The population is closed
2. The marks are not lost or overlooked
3. All animals are equally likely to be caught.

5. Using these assumptions, ecologists use the Lincoln-Peterson
model to calculate population size. In this lab, you will use a
simplified version of the model:
where is the estimate of population size, M is the number of
animals marked and released during the first session, C is the
number of animals captured during the second session, and R is
the number of recaptures in the second session. This equation
can be rearranged to solve for .
There are a number of ways to calculate confidence intervals,
depending on the R/C ratio. We will use a simple binomial
confidence interval that is estimated with the help of Figure 2.2.
This estimate assumes that the ratio of R/C is > 0.1.
1. Calculate using the equation above.
2. Calculate R/C and find this value on the X-axis (sample
proportion) of the graph.
3. Look vertically from that point to the first (lowest) contour
line that most closely matches your recapture sample size “C”,
then follow horizontally to the Y-axis (population proportion).
This is the lower 95% confidence limit of R/C.
4. Repeat this procedure but look vertically to the second
contour line with sample size “C” to find the upper confidence
limit of R/C.
5. Convert these R/C confidence limits to limits for the
population size by plugging the reciprocal of the confidence
limit value into the population estimate equation. (e.g. if your
estimate from the Y-axis is R/C = 0.4, then this is placed as a
reciprocal in the following equation.)
6. Perform this calculation for the upper and lower 95%
confidence limits of the population size estimate.

6. 7. In your graph, format the height of the bar to be at and the
length of the 95% confidence interval bars to be the difference
between and the upper (or lower) 95% confidence limits,
similarly to what you did in your first graph. Be sure to include
your group data and the class data on the graph.
Equipment: Handout, notebook, pencil, aquarium, plastic
beakers, dry erase markers, paint pens
In-lab Methods:
Read through this handout so you know what you’re going to
do. You may work in groups, but every student is responsible
for their own report.
You will be working in groups with one person capturing, one
marking, and one recording data.
Density plot estimate:
1. On the under-side of your aquarium, use a dry-erase marker
to draw a transect line down the middle of the tank in the long
direction. Measure the total length of the transect in cm.
2. Produce a list of random numbers between 0 and 5 cm less
than the total length.
3. Use the list of random numbers to place three 5-cm x5-cm
quadrat plots (25 cm2) along the transect, beginning on the left
side of the transect and alternating sides for each plot. The
random number identifies the beginningof the quadrat (e.g. the
number 2 would indicate a plot from 2-7 cm along the transect).
Draw the 3 plots on the underside of the aquarium with a dry-
erase marker.
4. Add your “organisms” by dropping them haphazardly into
the upright aquarium.
5. Count all of the individuals you observe in each of the three
25-cm2 plots and record your data. Also make a note about how

7. the “organisms” are distributed across the entire population
distribution.
6. Measure and record the inside dimensions of the aquarium
(i.e. total population distribution area), then calculate N and the
standard deviation for your data. Write your raw data on the
white board to share with the class.
7. Combine the entire class dataset and calculate N and the
standard deviation for the whole class.
Mark-recapture estimate:
1. Sample: Trap “organisms” by sweeping your trap through the
aquarium once and placing your trapped individuals into a
container. Repeat until you have trapped 50 individuals (M).
2. Mark each “organism” using the paint pen.
3. Return the “organisms” to the aquarium and haphazardly mix
the population.
4. Repeat the sampling process until you have captured another
50 individuals (C). Then record how many of those individuals
are marked (R).
8. Calculate and 95% confidence intervals for your group’s
data and write the raw data on the white board to share with the
class.
9. Calculate and 95% confidence intervals for the class’s data
as a single combined dataset.
Census:
1. Remove the “organisms” from the terrarium and count them
all while returning them to another container.
2. Record the true population size. Write this on the whiteboard
and calculate a total class population size
Questions to answer (due next Friday)
1. Provide your data as tables, including the raw data,
calculated estimate of population size, and upper and lower 95%
confidence intervals. Also report your results in a single figure
for all estimates (bar chart with 95% confidence intervals for all
estimates, i.e. your group data and the entire class data for each

8. of the two methods of estimating population size).
2. Why are indices not useful for estimating population sizes,
but only for relative comparisons?
3. Evaluate your estimated population sizes in comparison to
the actual population size. Which method of estimation was
more accurate? What assumptions, if any, were violated for
each method? How could you improve your estimate?
4. Why do ecologists estimate population size? When would an
ecologist want to use a density estimate versus a mark-recapture
estimate? (Think about organisms, habitats, types of
questions…)
5. What would happen to your density estimate if:
a. the area observed was 50% smaller?
b. some individuals (e.g., females) were harder to detect?
c. individuals were attracted to sampling areas?
d. sampling areas were not randomly located?
Provide mathematical explanations for why each would occur,
making sure to think about both estimates and confidence
intervals.
6. What would happen to your mark-recapture estimate if:
a. several of the animals died or migrated out of the area
between captures?
b. the marks were not properly observed?
c. handling the animals killed them after you had released it
back into the wild?
d. some individuals had a higher probability of being caught
than other individuals?
Provide mathematical explanations for why each would occur,
making sure to think about both estimates and confidence
intervals.

9. Consult your textbook, reputable parts of the web, and the
primary literature to put your results in context. Please cite all
outside sources!
251.0 251.0 338.9333333333333
Group data (n=3)
Estimated population size
BIO317 page 1
PSPA 4080
Capstone
Virtual Community
Week 1
Welcome to New Harbor, Delaware! You’ve come at a busy
time. With a campaign to elect the next mayor starting up, there
is a lot going on and no issue is too small to consider.
Within New Harbor, you’ll find certain buildings marked with
flashing dots. These hot spots contain introductory videos about
five specific characters, as well as reactions to these individuals
from various citizens around town. After viewing all five videos
and reading all of the reactions, select one of the five characters
that you find most interesting. You will follow this character
for the duration of this course, and many of your assignments
will require you to make assessments from this character’s
perspective. For this first week, you’ll be asked to explain how
the role you selected fits within the landscape of American
government and public policy, so keep that in mind as you
proceed.
Enjoy your stay!
Samuel Taylor Intro Video
Narrator: Unless you’re new to New Harbor, Delaware you’ll
likely recognize the name and face of Mr. Samuel Taylor. Not
only has he been a prominent businessman who employs
hundreds of men and women in the New Harbor metro area, he
has also served as Mayor for the last four years – continuing a

10. family tradition of leadership in the community.
Taylor: (sit-down interview) I couldn’t be prouder to say that
I’m a true New Harboran. My family came here way back in the
1870s and stuck around ever since. I certainly can’t blame them
though! It’s a beautiful city that just keeps getting better.
I was born here in 1958. My dad – a trusted banker – and my
mom – a caring nurse made sure I got everything that I needed
here from a proper education to a strong faith. I really couldn’t
have asked for a better childhood so after a few years away at
college how could I resist coming back to start a family and live
my life?
Narrator: At the early age of 31, Taylor founded NewHar Health
Group, a health insurance company that immediately found
success and grew to employ over 600 residents in New Harbor
with satellite offices employing hundreds more scattered
throughout the state and country beyond.
And although not involved in politics initially, Taylor learned
first-hand what it takes to be mayor from his uncle, Reginald
Taylor, who served as mayor of New Harbor for a record 5
terms before deciding to retire four years ago.
Taylor: I’ll never forget the day Uncle Reggie came to me and
said, “Son, I’m getting to old for this and I wanted you to be the
first to know (Aunt Teresa had recently passed away) that I’m
not going to run for re-election this year.” And I said, “Uncle
Reggie, are you sure? I know how much the city means to you!”
And then he tapped his cane on the floor and said; “I know I’m
sure! It’s YOUR turn to take care of New Harbor now!” It was
without a doubt quite a moment for me…and very unexpected.
But after giving it some thought and consideration with my wife
and children, I decided that being mayor of New Harbor would
be the greatest honor of my life…so I pursued it.
Narrator: With his popular uncle at his side on the campaign
trail, Samuel Taylor ran for mayor and decisively won with 67%
of the vote. His four years in office have been contentious
though as he has fought to decrease spending in the wake of an
economic downturn that has had a large effect on the city and

11. it’s residents. Unemployment has skyrocketed to levels
previously unheard of in New Harbor. This, along with
increased crime and massive housing foreclosures, have led to
dwindling public support for Taylor in the mayor’s office.
In a political career that at first seemed bulletproof, Samuel
Taylor now appears to be in danger of losing his re-election bid
as natural economic circumstances mix with unexpected
political gaffs to mar his campaign.
Video camera footage of Taylor at an event talking to an aide
near an open mic where he says: “Do NOT let those Peacetree
people into one of these events again! They’re a damn nuisance
and I don’t want to deal with ‘em!”
Narrator: Nevertheless, the campaign carries on.
Taylor: I made a promise to Uncle Reggie that I would not let
harm come to this city and I’m sticking to it. I knew it wasn’t
always going to be easy but I love a good challenge and I’ll be
working 24/7 to tackle the issues and continue to make New
Harbor the greatest and safest city in America for the next four
years and beyond.
Alec Coppel Intro Video
Narrator: Tough times have hit New Harbor, Delaware and
Democratic candidate for mayor; Alec Coppel says he has the
solutions.
Coppel (sit-down interview): The state of the city is poor, plain
and simple. For the last 24 years, New Harbor has only had two
different mayors and they just happen to be from the same
family. Now, I don’t want to throw the term ‘dynasty’ around
too lightly but it’s really starting to look that way and I firmly
believe a change is needed.
Interviewer voice off screen: And do you think you’re that
change?
Coppel: Absolutely.
Narrator: Born in 1969, Alec Coppel grew up in Vermont before
moving to New Harbor for law school at West Bridge
University. Upon graduating and passing the bar exam Coppel
decided to put down roots in New Harbor with his wife, Miriam.

12. He quickly rose to the rank of partner at one of the city’s most
prominent law firms and eventually decided to get involved in
local politics.
Coppel: The process of getting into politics actually happened
very naturally for me. My profession as a lawyer showed me the
ins and outs of the community on everything from people to the
issues of the day. Seeing all of this, I started mentally taking
stock of the things that I thought were positive and the things
that needed to be changed. And it was actually right when my
daughter was born that I looked at the list and realized that the
things that needed to be changed were far too numerous. I knew
instantly that I didn’t want my daughter growing up in a city
where these problems were so persistent. So it became my
ultimate goal to make those improvements for her and for all the
children of New Harbor. And running for City Council is where
I thought I could effect the most change at that time so I ran.
Narrator: Coppel has served on the New Harbor City Council
for the past twelve years putting education, aiding the poor, and
environmental issues at the top of his very extensive to-do list.
From initiating a ban on smoking in public places to writing
ordinances that impose massive fines on companies that pollute,
Alec Coppel has become a self-proclaimed warrior for public
health and safety.
Coppel: Nothing is more important to me than making sure this
city is the cleanest, safest, healthiest city on the eastern
seaboard. Period. And my efforts to obtain that goal has been
unwavering from my successful overhaul of the public school
lunch program to the ongoing improvement of access to
affordable healthcare.
Narrator: Alec Coppel’s crusades have not been easy though. As
one of the few Democrats on the city’s largely Republican
council, Coppel has faced an incredibly steep uphill battle to get
many of his pet policies enacted. The last four years in
particular have been contentious ones for him as multiple
disagreements with Mayor Taylor have been aired in public by
local bloggers.

13. We see a screen grab of a fictional blog, New Harborist with the
headline “Coppel explodes at Mayor Taylor in Closed-Door
Meeting” An audio player on the page blasts Coppel’s voice
saying: “This is Bullshit (expletives bleeped)!!! Vetoing this
law will be the saddest act of your cheap political career. I
know you were given this position as a gift from good old Uncle
Reggie but can you at least pretend to give a damn about the
people here?!”
Coppel: You ask if I regret that outburst and the answer is
easily no. I maybe could have been calmer about the situation,
but that’s how much I care about this city. It’s a passion for me
and after four years of seeing a lot of good policies get shot
down to score some political points and help out some big
shots, I just can’t stay calm anymore. I’ve got to fight if we
want this city to stay on the right track and that’s exactly why
I’m running for Mayor. And I’m determined to win - not for me
or my family, but for everyone who calls New Harbor home.
Mary Davenport Intro Video
Narrator: For the past quarter century, New Harbor, Delaware
has had a very routine process of electing its mayor with the
Republican Taylor family successfully dominating six mayoral
elections over light Democratic challenges. But this year, Mary
Davenport is stepping into the ring to take on not only Mayor
Taylor, but his Democratic challenger, Alec Coppel, to become
New Harbor’s first female mayor as well as its first independent
candidate for that office.
Davenport: (sit-down interview) A lot of people thought that
this would never happen - and honestly, for a long time I was
one of them - but the time is definitely right to break free of the
partisan bickering that is tearing this town in two and find the
middle ground that can put us on a steady and prosperous
course.
Narrator: And that is exactly what she is attempting to do with a
grass roots campaign that has been taking pockets of the city by
storm thanks to her much touted homegrown charm and
experience in community outreach.

14. Davenport: New Harbor is my home and it always has been. Ya
know, I was born here, I went to grade school and college here,
met and married my husband Paul here, I’m raising my beautiful
son, Carter, here, and I make my living here! This place is my
life and its given me so much that I just want to give back and
make sure that every resident of this town can have the same
blessed experience that I have had.
Narrator: If you think Davenport looks familiar, you wouldn’t
be wrong. For the past 15 years she has been at the forefront of
a citywide effort to help those less fortunate than her. By
founding Feed The Harbor, a nonprofit organization charged
with aiding the homeless population of New Harbor, Davenport
has aided countless citizens by providing food, shelter, and job
training bankrolled by corporate donations and a tireless
fundraising drive.
Davenport: Helping people has been my life’s work and I think
everyone who lives here knows that. What they might not know
however is that my passions extend far beyond the realm of
helping the needy. For instance, I care deeply about the
environment! New Harbor has an amazing organization called
Peacetree that is doing phenomenal work as a leader in cleaning
up the city. I also believe firmly in making our schools the best
that they can be and think that increasing safety in some of our
more dangerous neighborhoods is a priority. On top of that I
believe in fiscal responsibility, balancing the city’s budget,
reigning in some of the corporate interests that have infiltrated
the local government, and instilling a sense of hope that our
best days really are ahead of us.
Narrator: Despite her positive attitude and vast online outreach,
many people have questioned her ability to truly compete for
the office now that both Mayor Taylor and Democrat Alec
Coppel have begun extensive media campaigns online, in print,
and on local TV and radio. And with her campaign running on
very low on funds, doubt remains if the election can be swayed
to someone who has previously only been elected to the school
board.

15. Interviewer (off screen): You used to be registered as a
Democrat, correct?
Davenport: Yes, that’s true.
Interviewer (off screen): Why didn’t you then pursue the
Democratic nomination? And have you considered the impact
your campaign could have on Alec Coppel’s chances?
Davenport: The whole point of my campaign has been to do
away with this party system and to find a middle ground. So I
obviously chose to avoid seeking either party’s nomination
because I truly believe people are ready for someone who is not
on either fringe of the spectrum. Instead, we need someone who
is taking the commonsense, compromise approach to good
government policies. Councilman Coppel has done a pretty good
job fighting for certain issues in New Harbor, but we don’t
agree on everything and quite frankly, his rigid and
confrontational stance on a number of things has probably
hindered progress more than promote it.
I also agree with certain policies that Mayor Taylor promotes
but my goal is really to show that it doesn’t have to be one or
the other. There is a third choice and it’s the choice of common
sense, moderation, and compromise. And I think we’re doing a
really great job of showing people exactly what that means and
how we can ultimately make it a reality with their help.
Peacetree Intro Video
Narrator: Fighting to protect the environment has never been an
easy job but over the years thousands of people have stepped up
across the world in this very effort. Their work, and the results
of that work have been varied but one of the leading lights in
the movement is Peacetree, a far-reaching non-profit
organization based in Washington DC with over 200 local
chapters scattered throughout the globe!
One of the busiest of these local chapters is none other than the
New Harbor, Delaware chapter. Under the leadership of
Executive Director Susan McDonald, the team there is waging
an all-out war on a series of issues that are challenging the
coastal city’s environment in a big way.

16. McDonald (on camera interview): Peacetree’s never-ending
mission is to promote sustainability, biodiversity, life and peace
throughout the world and unfortunately all of those things are at
risk in New Harbor. Improper management of the harbor and
other aspects of city life over the past decades has led to
increased pollution in the waterways, a massive reduction in
recycling, and dangerous new incentives for business that only
seem to promote pollution and waste. This city is on a precipice
and we’re working tirelessly to reduce and ultimately reverse
these dangerous practices.
Narrator: Since setting up shop in New Harbor 7 years ago,
Peacetree has taken a tough stance against the policies of Mayor
Samuel Taylor and his predecessor Reginald Taylor with
protests and an intense lobbying effort aimed at getting the city
council to pass tougher environmental protection ordinances.
And although many initiatives have fallen flat in the mostly
conservative city council, Peacetree has found a strong ally in
Democratic Councilman Alec Coppel who is now running to
replace Samuel Taylor as mayor.
McDonald: We’ve been extremely grateful and proud of the
efforts from Mr. Coppel to further our cause and we’re very
enthusiastic about his campaign. In general we feel like we have
reached a turning point in New Harbor where the attitude of the
public is shifting to a more environmentally conscious state that
I find really encouraging. We even have an independent
candidate…umm…. Mary Davenport, who is running on a very
strong environmental platform so I’m choosing to look at it as
two out of three ain’t bad!
Narrator: At this time Peacetree has not involved itself heavily
in the mayoral campaign process, but the candidates are aware
that an official endorsement from the organization could bring
enough money and manpower to position any candidate for a
swift election victory.
McDonald: Politics is obviously not our main focus at Peacetree
but we have a crucial understanding that the kind of change we
are seeking just isn’t possible without the right people making

17. decisions and writing laws. So although activism and research
are our main tools, we can’t afford to ignore elections, and
when the time is right we’ll mobilize our forces and help ensure
the victory of whoever will be best for New Harbor and
ultimately the planet.
Port Authority Intro Video
Narrator: In this day and age of the war on terror almost no
public agencies have faced as much increased stature and
responsibility as that of Port Authorities and the one in New
Harbor, Delaware is no exception. Tasked with protecting and
maintaining the bustling shipping harbor port, the New Harbor
International Airport, the public rail transit system, as well as
all of the bridges and tunnels located inside and around the city
is no small task but director Tad Scott has taken it by the horns
in his last three years on the job.
Tad Scott (sit down interview): We live in scary times and that
has certainly made a huge impact on my job and this agency. Ya
know…managing the people and goods that come into our city
by land, sea, and air is a complicated task regardless, but in the
wake of the September 11th attacks all those years ago, the
complexity level just quadrupled. Maybe more. Security is now
my biggest priority and it’s a job that I’m proud to be at the
forefront of… but it’s never easy.
Narrator: Appointed to the role of Director by Mayor Taylor
three years ago after rising through the ranks of the Port
Authority in a career that spans 40 years, Tad Scott has sought
to overhaul the agency in a major way to combat the evolving
challenges of the modern world.
Scott: I think the community should be feeling significantly
safer than they were say, maybe ten years ago. The strides
we’ve made in getting a better understanding of who and what
is coming into the city have been enormous. I know I personally
feel better and believe without any doubt that this is a safe
place for my grandchildren to grown up. But we can’t let that
slide. The Port Authority demands a certain level of funding to
stay effective and a big part of my job is to make sure we stay

18. at that level.
Narrator: As Mayor Taylor quietly works on his budget for the
next fiscal year; many have been wondering exactly how
prominent the Port Authority will sit when the mayor announces
how he will distribute the city’s tax revenues for the next year.
Leaked reports have claimed that Tad Scott’s budget request has
far exceeded how much Mayor Taylor is willing to appropriate
despite his long-standing commitment to security. Some suspect
that recent complaints of racial and ethnic profiling by port
authority officers has led to Taylor’s reluctance to increase
their funding for a fifth straight year but citizens won’t know
for sure until he makes budget decisions public sometime in the
coming weeks.
Scott: I’ve made my case to the mayor and I think he
understands how important this agency is to the city. A budget
cut right now would be disastrous for the agency and the
community. There would be layoffs, which would not only
increase this city’s growing unemployment numbers but also
weaken our resolve to complete our mission, and that’s not
something I’m comfortable with. So I anxiously await his
decision and pray that he holds strong. You know it can be very
tempting for a politician to bend to the will of what sounds
good in an election year but this…this is more important than
politics.
Reaction Points around town
“If I had a dollar for every time Alec Coppel came in here after
one of his city council meetings and got absolutely smashed, I’d
be a richer woman, I’ll tell ya that! Well, I guess I couldn’t say
“rich” but it would definitely make up for his awful tips and bad
attitude. I’m always sure to keep a bottle of his favorite stashed
away if we start running low. God help me if he shows up and
we’re all out. That temper of his is fierce!”
- Sofia Velasquez – Bartender at The Rusty Seagull, 27, Latino,
independent
“We gotta lotta complainers here in New Harbor. I’m tellin’ ya
– no one will ever be satisfied. I got customers coming in here

19. every day talkin’ about the economy, and the jobs, and the
corruption, and the this, and the that and I’m sick of it! I
personally think Taylor’s doin’ a great job as mayor and I don’t
want nobody else takin’ over! I’m a small business owner and
he’s done right by me just like his uncle did right by me before
him. So, uh, when people come in here running their mouths – I
tell them to get educated and then maybe run for office
themselves if they think they can do better! ...But then I might
give ‘em some extra fries to make sure they come back to my
shop.”
- Vince Sturges – Owner of the East Harbor Deli, 56, White,
Republican
“I don’t have a home. I don’t have a car. Heck, I don’t even
have a driver’s license anymore so its obviously been awhile
since I voted. I’ve been homeless for too long to even think
about it and I don’t really care who wins or loses because odds
are I’ll still be homeless… but a friend at the shelter here told
me that the Davenport woman was running and she’d be all
right. I wish I could count how many times she or her people
have helped me out with some food and a warm bed. Not sure if
she could fix me permanently but I guess it’s worth a shot.”
- Kim Turner – Unemployed, 41, White, Non-voter
“I’ve been living in New Harbor for my entire life and over the
years have watched many, many aspects of it degrade and
become, quite frankly, unappealing. I think this is especially
true with the waterfront which has become so polluted and
revolting that I forbid my family from going anywhere near it. I
had high hopes when Peacetree came to town with the goal of
cleaning it up but I’m disappointed by the lack of progress so
far. I know a lot of it is out of their hands so I’ll keep
contributing and press my friends to do the same but we have
got to get Taylor out of City Hall. That is essential. And
hopefully with different blood in there we can properly make
our city and waterfront beautiful again.”
- Vernon Wright – Doctor, 45, African American, Democrat
“Public education should be the number one priority of any

20. community but it shouldn’t shock anyone to hear that it isn’t the
number one priority of THIS community. Year after year we’ve
seen more money from our budget siphoned into the Port
Authority budget and the impact has been a disaster. Our
fantastic teachers have not had raises in three years causing
many to resign or take work in other school districts. If this
trend isn’t reversed with the next budget period our children
will continue to suffer in the name of false security. How
anyone can find this acceptable is beyond me.”
- Jennifer List – Superintendent of New Harbor Public Schools,
52, Asian, Democrat
Week 1 Learning Resources
Please read and view (where applicable) the following Learning
Resources before you complete this week's assignments.
Note: To access this week's required library resources, please
click on the link to the Course Readings List, found in the
Required Course Materials section of your Syllabus.
Readings
Article: Abramson, P. R., & Aldrich, J. H. (2000). Challenges to
the American two-party system: Evidence from the 1968, 1980,
1992, and 1996 presidential elections. Political Research
Quarterly, 53(3), 495–522. Retrieved from the Walden Library
databases.
Article Bowler, S., & Donovan, T. (2006). Direct democracy
and political parties in America. Party Politics, 12(5), 649–669.
Retrieved from the Walden Library databases.
Article: Brunell, T. L. (2005). The relationship between
political parties and interest groups: Explaining patterns of PAC
contributions to candidates for Congress. Political Research
Quarterly, 58(4), 681–688. Retrieved from the Walden Library
databases.

21. Article: Gershtenson, J. (2003). Mobilization strategies of the
Democrats and Republicans, 1956–2000. Political Research
Quarterly, 56(3), 293–308. Retrieved from the Walden Library
databases.
Article: Grynaviski, J. D. (2006). A Bayesian learning model
with applications to party identification. Journal of Theoretical
Politics, 18(3), 323–346.Retrieved from the Walden Library
databases.
Article: Verba, S., Scholtzman, K. L., & Brady, H. E. (2000).
Rational action and political activity. Journal of Theoretical
Politics, 12(3), 243–268.Retrieved from the Walden Library
databases.
Media
· Interactive Media:Virtual Community (See Virtual Community
Attachment)
· Transcript
Course Readings
After clicking on a citation below, enter your myWalden user
name ([email protected]) and password 3#icldyoB1A+ at the
prompt. (if necessary)
Abramson, P. R., & Aldrich, J. H. (2000). Challenges to the
American two-party system: Evidence from the 1968, 1980,
1992, and 1996 presidential elections. Political Research
Quarterly, 53(3), 495–522.
Alexander, J., & Richmond, S. A. (2007). Administrative
discretion: Can we move beyond cider house rules? The
American Review of Public Administration, 37(1), 51–64.
Barrett, A. W., & Barrington, L. W. (2005). Bias in newspaper
photograph selection. Political Research Quarterly, 58(4), 609–
618.
Barrett, A. W., & Barrington, L. W. (2005). Is a picture worth a
thousand words? Newspaper photographs and voter evaluations
of political candidates. The Harvard International Journal of

22. Press/Politics, 10(4),98–113.
Bourgon, J. (2007). Responsive, responsible and respected
government: Towards a new public administration theory.
International Review of Administrative Sciences, 73(1), 7–26.
Bourgon, J. (2009). New directions in public administration:
Serving beyond the predictable. Public Policy and
Administration, 24(3), 309–330.
Bowler, S., & Donovan, T. (2006). Direct democracy and
political parties in America. Party Politics, 12(5), 649–669.
Bowman, J. S., & West, J. P. (2009). State government "little
hatch acts" in an era of civil service reform: The state of the
nation. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 29(1), 20–
40.
Brady, D., Beckfield, J., & Seeleib-Kaiser, M. (2005).
Economic globalization and the welfare state in affluent
democracies, 1975–2001. American Sociological Review, 70(6),
921–948.
Brunell, T. L. (2005). The relationship between political parties
and interest groups: Explaining patterns of PAC contributions to
candidates for Congress. Political Research Quarterly, 58(4),
681–688.
Catlaw, T. J., & Jordan, G. M. (2009). Public administration
and "the lives of others": Toward an ethics of collaboration.
Administration & Society, 41(3), 290–312.
Cohen, F., Solomon, S., Maxfield, M., Pyszczynski, T., &
Greenberg, J. (2004). Fatal attraction: The effects of mortality
salience on evaluations of charismatic, task-oriented, and
relationship-oriented leaders. Psychological Science, 15(12),
846–851.
Ferguson, A. (2008). We can't handle the truth. The Weekly
Standard, 13(43), 12–13.
Gershtenson, J. (2003). Mobilization strategies of the
Democrats and Republicans, 1956–2000. Political Research
Quarterly, 56(3), 293–308.
Grynaviski, J. D. (2006). A Bayesian learning model with
applications to party identification. Journal of Theoretical

23. Politics, 18(3), 323–346.
Heaney, M. T., & McClurg, S. D. (2009). Social networks and
American politics: Introduction to the special issue. American
Politics Research, 37(5), 727–741.
Howell-Moroney, M. E. (2008). A mixed method look at state
growth management policy. American Review of Public
Administration, 38(3), 339–361.
Ireni Saban, L. (2011). Looking into the eyes of those we serve:
Toward complex equality in public administration ethics. The
American Review of Public Administration, 41(2), 141–1 56.
Pagano, M. A., & Perry, D. (2008). Financing infrastructure in
the 21st century city. Public Works Management & Policy,
13(1), 22–38.
Quill, L. (2009). Ethical conduct and public service: Loyalty
intelligently bestowed. The American Review of Public
Administration, 39(3), 215–224.
Raadschelders, J. C. N. (2010). Is American public
administration detached from historical context? The American
Review of Public Administration, 40(3), 235–260.
Rogers, E. P., & Weber, E. (2009). Thinking harder about
outcomes for collaborative governance arrangements. American
Review of Public Administration, 40(5), 546–567.
Roth, A. L. (2005). ''Pop quizzes'' on the campaign trail:
Journalists, candidates, and the limits of questioning. The
Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, 10(2),28–46.
Schaeffer-Grabiel, F. (2010). Sex trafficking as the "new slave
trade"? Sexualities, 13(2), 153–161.
Schwart, M. A. (2010). Interactions between social movements
and US political parties. Party Politics, 16(5), 587–6 07.
Silverman, M., Taylor, H. L., Jr., & Crawford, C. (2008). The
role of citizen participation and action research principles in
Main Street revitalization: An analysis of a local planning
project. Action Research, 6(1), 69–9 3.
Stever, J. A. (2005). Adapting intergovernmental management
to the new age of terrorism. Administration & Society, 37(4),
379–403.

24. Stone, D. (2008). Global public policy, transnational policy
communities, and their networks. Policy Studies Journal, 36(1),
19–38.
Tuckness, A. (2008). John Locke and public administration.
Administration & Society, 40(3), 253–270.
Verba, S., Scholtzman, K. L., & Brady, H. E. (2000). Rational
action and political activity. Journal of Theoretical Politics,
12(3), 243–268.