We focus on aligning rights, responsibilities, and resources for a balanced population. Key points include whether lower population growth is essential for higher economic growth, and the broader economic imperative of population balance (referred to as "Tawazun"). A significant portion of the discussion is dedicated to perspectives across thematic areas: the economics of family planning and household well-being, integrating population balance into macroeconomic planning, and the role of population management in achieving inclusive and sustainable growth. The presentation aims to promote dialogue, generate messages from the meeting, and conclude with recommendations for government and non-government stakeholders.

1. TAWAZUN AND TRANSFORMATION: ECONOMIC
IMPERATIVE OF POPULATION BALANCE
Meeting with Economic and Planning Experts
Vaqar Ahmed
27th
May 2025
Population Council

2. NATIONAL NARRATIVE ON
POPULATION GROWTH
 Pakistan needs to address declining health, education,
and demographic indicators, which are deepening
inequalities and threatening national stability
 Achieving sustainable population growth - well below
the current - is essential, guided by a Supreme Court
initiated and CCI endorsed action plan on Population
 A unifying national narrative is needed to build cross-
sector consensus for balanced growth, drawing lessons
from peers
 Central to this effort is investment in human capital,
especially through women’s empowerment and
universal access to reproductive healthcare, to break
the cycle of poverty and poor development outcomes
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3. CORE PRINCIPLES: RIGHTS,
RESPONSIBILITIES, AND BALANCE (TAWAZUN)
Rights: Citizens have fundamental rights enshrined in
religious teachings, the Constitution, and
international covenants.
Responsibilities: Individuals/parents have a
responsibility to raise children they can provide for,
while the State is responsible for providing
necessary services and resources
Balance (Tawazun): Achieving a balance between
family size and resources at the micro level, and
between population growth and available
resources/regenerative capacity at the macro level.
Key Implementation Directives
Enhance awareness of family
planning's health benefits, provide
access to counseling and modern
contraceptives, sensitize youth,
utilize media effectively, and act on
an emergency footing for those
lacking access to family planning
Provinces, under the 18th
Constitutional Amendment, are
responsible for improving
comprehensive health services, with
family planning as a core element of
maternal and child care
SLIDE 3

4. SLIDE 4
CORE IDEA
Population as a Fundamental Economic Variable
Population dynamics are not just social issues, but
fundamental economic variables that impact labor
supply, consumption, public expenditure, and long-
term economic planning.

5. MEETING OBJECTIVES
Seek
Seek your
help in
promoting
dialogue on
the economic
implications of
high
population
growth
Position
Position
population
planning,
education, and
health as
strategic
investments for
economic
growth
Build
Build commitment
to champion
population
management for
economic
resilience,
productivity, and
inclusive
development
Translate
Translate
research into
accessible,
people-
centered
messages
SLIDE 5

6. BRIDGING THE CURRENT GAP
IN ECONOMIC CONSENSUS
While the economic consequences of rapid
population growth are intuitively understood,
there's a critical lack of alignment among
economists on its precise correlation with
macroeconomic indicators and actionable
policy responses
This brainstorm will specifically address this
divergence by integrating the "Tawazun"
(balance between population size and
resources) narrative directly into core economic
discourse.
SLIDE 6

7. SHAPING FUTURE
MACROECONOMIC PLANNING
AND BUDGETARY FRAMEWORKS
The insights from this meeting will directly inform how
future national economic and fiscal strategies are
designed
By analyzing the projections, economists could identify
specific mechanisms to embed population dynamics as
a central tenet of long-term planning, ensuring fiscal
sustainability, and rationalized public expenditure
This includes exploring how balanced population
growth can improve savings, enhance quality of life,
and promote intergenerational investments at the
household level.
SLIDE 7

8. SLIDE 8
UNLOCKING GROWTH
For Pakistan to achieve its aspiration of
inclusive and sustainable growth, economic
planners must define how addressing
demographic pressures can reduce inequality
and support human capital development
This brainstorm will generate concrete
strategies for investing in human capital –
particularly through family planning, health,
and education – as a strategic imperative for
future economic growth, transforming the youth
bulge from a potential liability into a
demographic dividend.

9. EMPOWERING INFLUENTIAL
VOICES
By promoting ownership and commitment among
leading economic experts, this meeting aims to
expand the pool of influential voices advocating for
population management from a powerful economic
lens
This will directly impact future policy and planning
frameworks, ensuring that population factors are
recognized and addressed as fundamental economic
variables, crucial for Pakistan's long-term viability
and security.
Without this critical alignment and integration,
Pakistan risks derailing national progress across
multiple sectors as demographic pressures continue to
outpace resource availability.
SLIDE 9

10. AS AN ECONOMIC PLANNER
WHAT MAY BE PRIORITIZED?
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR): At 3.6, Pakistan’s high TFR
drives unsustainable population growth; reducing it
to 2.1 is critical
 Dependency Ratio: With 64% under 30, Pakistan must
convert its youth bulge into a productive elite
 Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR): Only 34% of
women able to use contraception - raising this
to 52% could accelerate TFR decline and save $1.5B
annually in healthcare costs
 Urbanization Rate: Faster urban growth (3% annual)
could lower fertility and boost productivity, but requires
job-focused infrastructure investment.
SLIDE 10

11. WHY IT MATTERS ECONOMICALLY?
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The Growth Engine
 Population Momentum: Even if TFR falls to 2.1 today, Pakistan’s population will keep growing for
decades due to its youthful age structure (like a "snowball effect")
 Demographic Dividend Window: To capitalize, TFR must decline before the working-age
population peaks. Pakistan’s window (2040-2050) is closing fast
Macroeconomic Impact:
 High TFR (3.6) → More children = higher public spending on education/health (currently ~6%
of GDP vs. needed 12%).
 Low TFR (2.1) → Frees up fiscal space for infrastructure/jobs (e.g., Bangladesh saved 1.5% of
GDP annually post-TFR decline)
 TFR-Poverty Nexus
 Household Level: Each additional child reduces per-capita income by 15-20%
 National Level: A 1-point TFR drop could raise GDP growth by 0.5-1% annually.
SLIDE 11

12. WHY IT MATTERS ECONOMICALLY?
Dependency Ratio: The Productivity Lever
 Current Status:
 Youth Dependency (0-14 years): 63%
 Old-Age Dependency (65+): 4%
 Working-Age (15-64): 33% (but underutilized due to low female participation)
 Projected Shift: Working-age population will peak at 65% by 2050 (if jobs exist).
 Economic Make-or-Break
 Optimistic Scenario (Low Dependency):
 Requires 2 million jobs/year until 2040.
 Pessimistic Scenario (High Dependency):
 Unemployment could hit 30% (current: 6.3%), triggering social unrest.
SLIDE 12

13. WHY IT MATTERS ECONOMICALLY?
The Cross-Indicator Linkage
TFR Dependency Ratio:
→ Lower TFR today means fewer dependents tomorrow.
Policy Triad for Success:
 Family Planning: Raise CPR to 52% to accelerate TFR decline.
 Education Quality: Fix stunting (40% of kids) to ensure future workers are
productive.
 Job-Led Growth: Export industries (textiles, IT) must absorb youth.
Warning:
If Pakistan’s TFR remains >3 until 2030, its dependency ratio will stay elevated,
costing 2-3% of GDP growth annually.
SLIDE 13

14. ECONOMIC PLANNERS KEY INTERVENTION
 Invest in family planning (to
lower TFR) and education/jobs
(to harness the working-age
population).
 Without these, Pakistan risks
missed demographic dividend
and prolonged poverty traps.
SLIDE 14

15. COLLECTIVE WISDOM
 Group 1: "Household Economics and Well-being: The Case for Investing in Family
Planning"
 Focus: How population balance improves savings, quality of life, and intergenerational
investments at the household level.
 Group 2: "Integrating Tawazun into Macroeconomic Planning and Budgetary Frameworks"
 Focus: Identifying ways to embed the population-resource balance into national
economic and fiscal strategies.
 Group 3: "The Economics of Equity: Population Management for Inclusive and Sustainable
Growth"
 Focus: Analyzing how addressing demographic pressures can reduce inequality and
support human capital development.
SLIDE 15

16. GROUP 1: HOUSEHOLD ECONOMICS AND WELL-BEING:
THE CASE FOR INVESTING IN FAMILY PLANNING
 Question 1: Beyond individual health benefits, how specifically does family planning and
achieving "Tawazun" at the household level translate into tangible improvements in
household savings rates, investment capacity (e.g., in children's education and health), and
overall quality of life for families in Pakistan? What data or evidence can support these
linkages?
 Question 2: What are the key policy interventions and public/private sector initiatives that
could most effectively enable Pakistani households, especially the most vulnerable, to make
informed family planning choices and realize the associated economic benefits? Consider
financial incentives, access to services, and community-level programs.
 Question 3: From a household perspective, what are the greatest barriers (e.g., cultural,
economic, access-related) to adopting balanced family sizes, and how can these barriers be
overcome to accelerate the realization of household economic well-being through family
planning?
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17. GROUP 2: INTEGRATING TAWAZUN INTO
MACROECONOMIC PLANNING AND BUDGETARY
FRAMEWORKS
Question 1: What specific macroeconomic frameworks can be adapted or developed to
effectively quantify the long-term economic dividends of achieving "Tawazun" (e.g., reduced per
capita public expenditure, increased productivity, higher savings rates) in Pakistan? How can
these be incorporated into national planning documents (e.g., 5-year plans, Vision/Uraan
Pakistan, Provincial Growth Strategies)?
Question 2: How can the concept of "Tawazun" be directly embedded into Pakistan’s and
provincial budget allocation processes and fiscal strategies? Identify specific budget lines,
investment areas, or fiscal reforms that would incentivize and support population management as
a core driver of fiscal sustainability.
Question 3: What are the institutional mechanisms and inter-ministerial coordination strategies
required to ensure that population factors are consistently integrated as fundamental economic
variables across all levels of federal and provincial macroeconomic planning and budgetary
frameworks?
SLIDE 17

18. GROUP 3: THE ECONOMICS OF EQUITY:
POPULATION MANAGEMENT FOR INCLUSIVE AND
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
 Question 1: How does rapid, unbalanced population growth in Pakistan exacerbate existing
inequalities (e.g., income, gender, regional) and hinder inclusive development? Provide specific
examples of how demographic pressures disproportionately affect vulnerable groups.
 Question 2: What targeted population management interventions, viewed through an economic
lens, can effectively reduce inequality and accelerate human capital development across all
segments of Pakistani society? Consider investments in girls' education, women's empowerment,
and equitable access to reproductive health services.
 Question 3: What are the essential monitoring and evaluation frameworks needed to track the
economic impact of population management strategies on equity and human capital
development in Pakistan? How can success be measured beyond just demographic indicators to
capture improvements in living standards and reduced disparities?
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19. GROUP RESPONSE TABLE TEMPLATE
Discussion Question Key
Discussion
Points /
Insights
Specific Actionable
Recommendations
Target Stakeholders
for Recommendations
(Govt./Non-Govt.)
Expected
Economic
Impact /
Rationale
Challenges/
Barriers &
Potential
Solutions
Question 1:
Question 2:
Question 3:
Additional Key
Insights/Recommendations
(if any):
SLIDE 19

20. THANK YOU