Presentation at the Global Landscapes Forum 2015, in Paris, France alongside COP21. For more information go to: www.landscapes.org.

1. Politics of numbers in the framework of REDD+
Strengthening the independent monitoring of land emissions
Uncertainty in tropical landscapes:
Emerging data and models as a bridge
between the past and visions for
tomorrow
GLF session 5/12/2015
Christopher Martius, Lou Verchot, Hannes Boettcher*, Martin
Herold, Arild Angelsen**, David Gaveau, and Maria Brockhaus
* Oeko-Institut Berlin; ** NMBU, Ås, Norway

2. Rational
science
and
planning
Numbers
as politics
Two perspectives on numbers
(Porter, 1995)
• generates knowledge & objective
information about real world
• basis for decisions,
implementation & evaluation
• value-based & subjective choices
in selection of numbers:biases,
presentation, interpretation, uses
• numbers as part of power game
Arild Angelsen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences

3. Areas of agreement and disagreement, country X

4. Rational
science
and
planning
Numbers
as politics
Two perspectives on numbers
(Porter, 1995)
• generates knowledge & objective
information about real world
• basis for decisions,
implementation & evaluation
• value-based & subjective choices
in selection of numbers:biases,
presentation, interpretation, uses
• numbers as part of power game
Arild Angelsen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences
we need a third perspective:
there is data variation and uncertainty

5. Strengthening the independent monitoring
of GHG emissions from land activities
for publishing, comparing and reconciling estimates
Aims
develop a proof of concept for publicly available, comprehensive, global, spatial
information systems on land cover, land emissions, land use and associated trends
tailored to multiple uses relevant to varying users.
An opportunity to
• analyze global monitoring systems currently available
• scrutinize them in light of user needs
• derive recommendations for more efficient and effective monitoring systems
• particularly for users with limited capacities of data handling and interpretation
An EC-funded cooperation of

6. Assessment Framework
Strengths, weakness, opportunities,
risks and gaps (SWORG) analysis
(by dataset and stakeholder)
Dataset categories
Forest area and area
change
Forest biomass change and
emission factors
AFOLU data and emissions
●
23 datasets and 31
web portals
Indicators
Dataset
characteristics
Methodologies
Uncertainties
Verification
Viability
Sustainability
Accessibility
Legitimacy
Stakeholders
Government
Local stakeholders (incl.
indigenous people)
NGO's
Private sector
Research institutes &
universities
Donors
Media
Analysis
Case studies
Case study
selection
Survey
Recommendations

7. User assessment shows different needs
Datasets on forest biomass change and emission factors
• 89% of users need EF data at tier 2/tier 3 level
• Differences between stakeholder groups
• E.g. demand for tier 3 mostly from researchers
• More governments and companies happy with tier 1
22%
50%
28%
7%
61%
32%
21%
42%
38%
Governmental
Research
NGO’s
Only single answer possible
N = 24 N = 44
Companies N = 18
10%
31%
59%
N = 39

8. Case studies
study purpose
Global contribution of AFOLU GHG
emissions (2000-2005): patterns,
uncertainties and drivers
feasibility to develop global spatially explicit AFOLU
GHG emission maps; assessing uncertainties for
emission hotspots
Forest change, deforestation and
degradation datasets at country level
develop approaches to compare and validate forest
loss datasets, and assess different types of forest
degradation in humid forests
Global forest biomass uncertainties
and their integration with national and
regional estimation and reporting
independent assessment of global forest biomass
uncertainties to allow users to understand their
feasibility and risks when used for their purposes
improving emission factors for forest
and agriculture by using biophysical
soil models
improving accessibility and increasing transparency
of Tier 3 methods to estimate GHG emissions and
removals
Independent monitoring for state-of-
the-art projections of land use related
emissions (addressing drivers)
proof-of-concept how independent monitoring
information can support users in projecting and
reconciling GHG emissions from land use activities

9. Shedding light on deforestation in country X
• Compare global and national datasets of forest area loss
• Validate the datasets using a common reference
• Consolidate estimates of deforestation
• Promote dialogue among data producers
●
to identify reasons of disagreement

10. Comparing annual fluctuations in
deforestation, from two datasets, country X
National data forest = old-growth carbon- and species-rich natural forest with high tree cover
Deforestation = an area where forest tree cover is becoming less than 30% over time

11. What is „independent monitoring“?
… provides information that is
• independent from national/sectoral, commercial or other interests
• additional to mandated national monitoring
• helping to fill country data and capacity gaps
• underpinning science with data
• providing comparability
• accurate, reliable and customizable
• increasing transparency, building confidence and broadening
participation for multiple stakeholders
• a potential authoritative reference for all stakeholders
• and also addressing different user needs: regional, time frame, specific
questions (peatlands, degradation)

12. Questions for debate
 With countries setting their own performance standards (i.e. FRELs) and proposing INDCs, what would be globally fair
standards for measuring progress towards climate goals?
 How can we combine multi-stakeholder engagement in MRV with independent and third party control?
 What will be the role of science in this?

13. Find us on
www.cifor.org/GCS