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The Post-Model Building Era
            and
     Simplified Models
           Modeling and the LHC
     Wuppertal, Germany   January 28, 2012



               Jay Wacker
                  SLAC
Question:




   How should we motivate LHC searches for
signatures of physics beyond the Standard Model?
The Challenge Facing the LHC


           Last Year

    300 Trillion Collisions

1 Billion Recorded Collisions
Very hard to make general predictions

    Space of experimental signatures is very high


    Njets < 12
         x
    Nleptons < 5           x 3 ( pT, η, φ)         ~600 dimensions
           x
   Nphotons < 4

                     Sparsely populated
Can’t calculate predictions accurately in this full space of signatures
Must reduce dimensionality

M2γγ= 2 pT1pT2( cosh(η1-η2) - cos(φ1-φ2) )
         Combines 6 variables into 1




   What theories/models are for
But theories have a high dimensional
              parameter space...




          MSSM has ~100 parameters

 Allowed parameter space has 19 parameters

mSUGRA has 5, but introduces theory prejudice
“Theory”
  Set of rules based upon principles
    used for predicting outcomes



Most Model Building is Theory Building
     use principles to create new theories
   (naturalness, supersymmetry, unification)
“Model”
    A representation of a system
      Not necessarily physical


Nevents         f(Mγγ)
                          Background


               Mγγ
Theory vs. Model
    Complete vs. Incomplete?



      Complete Theory
  Answer any physical question



Ultimate goal of theoretical physics
Complete Theories




Is “Complete” a criteria to select out theories?
Complete Theories


Non-renormalizable theories are incomplete

        Comes with energy scale Λ
         Λ ~ “Cutoff of Theory”


 Questions with E> Λ cannot be answered
However



Questions with E< Λ go as      (E/Λ)N << 1




     Effects are invisible at low energies
Complete Theories




Used to be a criteria to prefer theories
Complete Theories


       This was a great simplifying criteria

  Type of Theory            Number of parameters

  Renormalizable                      Finite

Non-renormalizable                   Infinite
Complete Theories, In Principle



      Discover the particles



Only finite number of measurements
     to fully specify the theory
Complete Theories

      Devil is in the details

    “Discover the particles”

              How?
                                a
Α               φ
                                b
Β                               c
                                d

If EΑΒ<Mφ, can’t discover
How does an undiscovered particle of a
  complete theory manifest itself?


L (A, B, ... ; φ)            L’(A, B, ... )


  L is a non-renormalizable theory
   ’

                    Λ = Mφ
How do we know we’ve discovered all the particles?
How do we know we’ve discovered all the particles?



                We know we haven’t


                     Dark Matter
             (80% of the mass of the Universe)
May be not so bad



L (A, B, ... ; φ)        L’(A, B, ... )
May be not so bad



L (A, B, ... ; φ)         L’(A, B, ... )



   Can any non-renormalizable theory
             be realized as a
renormalizable theory with more particles?
Basically
Any theory comes with Cutoff
    Above Λ, theory may be arbitrarily complicated
   Insensitive to Cutoff scale physics at low energies




   Is the backdrop for all theory building
Cannot write down complete theory with a straight face
   Using hypothetical principles to create new theories
Given that we can’t discover the
   complete theory of nature,
  how do we propose models?


Can parameterize all deviations from
         Standard Model

LSM(A, B, ... ) + LNon-Renormalizable (A, B, ... )
Given that we can’t discover the
   complete theory of nature,
  how do we propose models?


Can parameterize all deviations from
         Standard Model

LSM(A, B, ... ) + LNon-Renormalizable (A, B, ... )

   We usually want to explore
            EAB > Mφ
Need to incorporate φ into model
Modern Vision of
              Theories Beyond the Standard Model


         Λ                    Scale theory is no longer valid
Energy




         φ                   New particles to be discovered

         SM                     What we’ve already seen

              Λ can be low ~ 10 TeV        Λ can be high ~ 1016 TeV
Theory Building In Practice


        Pick a problem


  Build a theory that solves it


Make predictions for experiment
Theory Building In Practice


            Pick a problem


     Build a theory that solves it


   Make predictions for experiment


Argue about which theory is better while waiting
The Hierarchy Problem
            >50% of motivation for past 35 years
       Technicolor
1978
The Hierarchy Problem
            >50% of motivation for past 35 years
       Technicolor   Susy
1978
1981
The Hierarchy Problem
            >50% of motivation for past 35 years
       Technicolor   Susy
1978
1981


1991
The Hierarchy Problem
            >50% of motivation for past 35 years
       Technicolor   Susy     Large ED RS Small ED
1978
1981


1991

1998
The Hierarchy Problem
            >50% of motivation for past 35 years
       Technicolor   Susy     Large ED RS Small ED LH
1978
1981


1991

1998
2002

2012
The Hierarchy Problem
            >50% of motivation for past 35 years
       Technicolor   Susy     Large ED RS Small ED LH
1978
1981


1991

1998
2002

2012
Implications for Experimental Searches

         Technicolor   Susy   Large ED   RS                 Small ED LH
1978
1981


1991
              Could enumerate theories
1998                                                  600

                                                      500

2002
                                                                                Hd                2    2 1/2
                                                                                              (µ +m0)
                                                                                Hu




                                         Mass [GeV]
                                                      400


Lots of effort on the specific theories                300

                                                      200
                                                                                 M2
                                                                                 M1
                                                                                     M3

                                                                                                  m1/2

                                                                                          squarks
                                                      100                                         m0
                                                                                  sleptons


2012                                                   0
                                                        2   4   6   8    10   12
                                                                    Log10(Q/1 GeV)
                                                                                   14        16        18
Implications for Experimental Searches

        Technicolor   Susy   Large ED   RS   Small ED LH
1978
1981


1991

1998
2002
       Drowning in Possibilities
2012
Belief in any single theory or paradigm
            is at all-time low



 Ntheories                             Belief


                     time

      Just examples of possibilities
     Model Building Era successful, but over
Huge pain for experimentalists
   Enormous work to test each theory



Models help motivate where how
separate signal from background

Want to go to the Post-Model Building Era
Huge pain for experimentalists
         Enormous work to test each theory



     Models help motivate where how
     separate signal from background

      Want to go to the Post-Model Building Era



Is this theory-ladeness acceptable/necessary?
Need a way of simplifying theories



 Theories              Models
Simplified Models
             Models that are based upon
             well-established principles
(e.g. local quantum field theories that contain Standard Model)


             Not based upon principles
         i.e. there is not explicit physical motivation



       Purpose: Reduce Theory-Ladeness
Simplified Models designed
to avoid two types of problems
Type 1: Narrowly Focused Searches
Theory Space




                                     Signature Space




    Experimental
      Searches
Type 2: Redundant Theories
Theory Space




                                     Signature Space



         Experimental
           Searches
Simplified Models
      Start with Standard Model

Postulate relevant particles for a search
       Start with 1,2 or 3 new particles



   Write down most general theory
      Usually small number of parameters
Simplified Models



Can capture essential features of existing models

  Notice unexplored corners of theory space
           from lack of imagination

      No burden of top-down motivation
               No Principles
Simplified Model Example

MASS

       ˜
       g   color octet majorana
           fermion (“Gluino”)     THREE-BODY DECAY

                                            ¯
                                           qq

                                  ˜
                                  g                  0
                                          ˜
                                          q          1




       ˜   neutral majorana
           fermion (“LSP”)
Gluino Pair Production



                             q       ¯
                                     q
                 g       ˜
                         g

                     ˜
                     g

                 g       ˜
                         g
                                     ¯
                                     q
                                 q
Gluino Pair Production



                                 q       ¯
                                         q
p                    g       ˜
                             g

                         ˜
                         g

p                    g       ˜
                             g
                                         ¯
                                         q
                                     q
Gluino Pair Production
                                             j
                                                     j

                                 q               ¯
                                                 q
p                    g       ˜
                             g

                         ˜
                         g

p                    g       ˜
                             g
                                                 ¯
                                                 q
                                     q
                                                     j

                                         j
Gluino Pair Production
                                             j
                                                     j

                                 q               ¯
                                                 q
p                    g       ˜
                             g

                         ˜
                         g                               ET

p                    g       ˜
                             g
                                                 ¯
                                                 q
                                     q
                                                     j

                                         j
Gluino Pair Production
                                             j
                                                     j

                                 q               ¯
                                                 q
p                    g       ˜
                             g

                         ˜
                         g                               ET

p                    g       ˜
                             g
                                                 ¯
                                                 q
                                     q
                                                     j

                                         j
Multijets + Missing Energy
Common Susy Search Strategy


Base searches on mSUGRA Supersymmetry
           mg = 7m
            ˜              0


             Not general
          Risk Type 1 Failure
Allowed us to place limits on new theories
             with little data
      ˜
      g           ¯
                 qq               LHC 70 nb-1
                                       !prod = 3!" NLO-QCD      100 pb


                          !prod = !" NLO-QCD                    200 pb

              !prod = 0.3 !" NLO-QCD
                                                                300 pb


     !prod = 0.1 !" NLO-QCD                                     500 pb
                              Sample theory

                                                                1 nb
                                                     Tevatron
                                                                 2 nb

      mSUGRA
summary

Experiments are in the game now
Has led to more searches



        Modified Triggering



More kinematic regions searched



Unfortunately, no discoveries (yet)
Summary of Simplified Models
           Too many theories to search for
     Simp. Mods.: axes for decomposing all theories

               Reduce theory prejudice


         Represent natural extension of
        Effective Field Theory to the LHC


                In the Discovery Era

     Construct incomplete models to fit data
When incomplete model doesn’t work extend model
   Then construct Theory (understand Principles)
End
Philosophy Of Simplified Models

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Philosophy Of Simplified Models

  • 1. The Post-Model Building Era and Simplified Models Modeling and the LHC Wuppertal, Germany January 28, 2012 Jay Wacker SLAC
  • 2. Question: How should we motivate LHC searches for signatures of physics beyond the Standard Model?
  • 3. The Challenge Facing the LHC Last Year 300 Trillion Collisions 1 Billion Recorded Collisions
  • 4. Very hard to make general predictions Space of experimental signatures is very high Njets < 12 x Nleptons < 5 x 3 ( pT, η, φ) ~600 dimensions x Nphotons < 4 Sparsely populated Can’t calculate predictions accurately in this full space of signatures
  • 5. Must reduce dimensionality M2γγ= 2 pT1pT2( cosh(η1-η2) - cos(φ1-φ2) ) Combines 6 variables into 1 What theories/models are for
  • 6. But theories have a high dimensional parameter space... MSSM has ~100 parameters Allowed parameter space has 19 parameters mSUGRA has 5, but introduces theory prejudice
  • 7. “Theory” Set of rules based upon principles used for predicting outcomes Most Model Building is Theory Building use principles to create new theories (naturalness, supersymmetry, unification)
  • 8. “Model” A representation of a system Not necessarily physical Nevents f(Mγγ) Background Mγγ
  • 9. Theory vs. Model Complete vs. Incomplete? Complete Theory Answer any physical question Ultimate goal of theoretical physics
  • 10. Complete Theories Is “Complete” a criteria to select out theories?
  • 11. Complete Theories Non-renormalizable theories are incomplete Comes with energy scale Λ Λ ~ “Cutoff of Theory” Questions with E> Λ cannot be answered
  • 12. However Questions with E< Λ go as (E/Λ)N << 1 Effects are invisible at low energies
  • 13. Complete Theories Used to be a criteria to prefer theories
  • 14. Complete Theories This was a great simplifying criteria Type of Theory Number of parameters Renormalizable Finite Non-renormalizable Infinite
  • 15. Complete Theories, In Principle Discover the particles Only finite number of measurements to fully specify the theory
  • 16. Complete Theories Devil is in the details “Discover the particles” How? a Α φ b Β c d If EΑΒ<Mφ, can’t discover
  • 17. How does an undiscovered particle of a complete theory manifest itself? L (A, B, ... ; φ) L’(A, B, ... ) L is a non-renormalizable theory ’ Λ = Mφ
  • 18. How do we know we’ve discovered all the particles?
  • 19. How do we know we’ve discovered all the particles? We know we haven’t Dark Matter (80% of the mass of the Universe)
  • 20. May be not so bad L (A, B, ... ; φ) L’(A, B, ... )
  • 21. May be not so bad L (A, B, ... ; φ) L’(A, B, ... ) Can any non-renormalizable theory be realized as a renormalizable theory with more particles?
  • 23. Any theory comes with Cutoff Above Λ, theory may be arbitrarily complicated Insensitive to Cutoff scale physics at low energies Is the backdrop for all theory building Cannot write down complete theory with a straight face Using hypothetical principles to create new theories
  • 24. Given that we can’t discover the complete theory of nature, how do we propose models? Can parameterize all deviations from Standard Model LSM(A, B, ... ) + LNon-Renormalizable (A, B, ... )
  • 25. Given that we can’t discover the complete theory of nature, how do we propose models? Can parameterize all deviations from Standard Model LSM(A, B, ... ) + LNon-Renormalizable (A, B, ... ) We usually want to explore EAB > Mφ Need to incorporate φ into model
  • 26. Modern Vision of Theories Beyond the Standard Model Λ Scale theory is no longer valid Energy φ New particles to be discovered SM What we’ve already seen Λ can be low ~ 10 TeV Λ can be high ~ 1016 TeV
  • 27. Theory Building In Practice Pick a problem Build a theory that solves it Make predictions for experiment
  • 28. Theory Building In Practice Pick a problem Build a theory that solves it Make predictions for experiment Argue about which theory is better while waiting
  • 29. The Hierarchy Problem >50% of motivation for past 35 years Technicolor 1978
  • 30. The Hierarchy Problem >50% of motivation for past 35 years Technicolor Susy 1978 1981
  • 31. The Hierarchy Problem >50% of motivation for past 35 years Technicolor Susy 1978 1981 1991
  • 32. The Hierarchy Problem >50% of motivation for past 35 years Technicolor Susy Large ED RS Small ED 1978 1981 1991 1998
  • 33. The Hierarchy Problem >50% of motivation for past 35 years Technicolor Susy Large ED RS Small ED LH 1978 1981 1991 1998 2002 2012
  • 34. The Hierarchy Problem >50% of motivation for past 35 years Technicolor Susy Large ED RS Small ED LH 1978 1981 1991 1998 2002 2012
  • 35. Implications for Experimental Searches Technicolor Susy Large ED RS Small ED LH 1978 1981 1991 Could enumerate theories 1998 600 500 2002 Hd 2 2 1/2 (µ +m0) Hu Mass [GeV] 400 Lots of effort on the specific theories 300 200 M2 M1 M3 m1/2 squarks 100 m0 sleptons 2012 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Log10(Q/1 GeV) 14 16 18
  • 36. Implications for Experimental Searches Technicolor Susy Large ED RS Small ED LH 1978 1981 1991 1998 2002 Drowning in Possibilities 2012
  • 37. Belief in any single theory or paradigm is at all-time low Ntheories Belief time Just examples of possibilities Model Building Era successful, but over
  • 38. Huge pain for experimentalists Enormous work to test each theory Models help motivate where how separate signal from background Want to go to the Post-Model Building Era
  • 39. Huge pain for experimentalists Enormous work to test each theory Models help motivate where how separate signal from background Want to go to the Post-Model Building Era Is this theory-ladeness acceptable/necessary?
  • 40. Need a way of simplifying theories Theories Models
  • 41. Simplified Models Models that are based upon well-established principles (e.g. local quantum field theories that contain Standard Model) Not based upon principles i.e. there is not explicit physical motivation Purpose: Reduce Theory-Ladeness
  • 42. Simplified Models designed to avoid two types of problems
  • 43. Type 1: Narrowly Focused Searches Theory Space Signature Space Experimental Searches
  • 44. Type 2: Redundant Theories Theory Space Signature Space Experimental Searches
  • 45. Simplified Models Start with Standard Model Postulate relevant particles for a search Start with 1,2 or 3 new particles Write down most general theory Usually small number of parameters
  • 46. Simplified Models Can capture essential features of existing models Notice unexplored corners of theory space from lack of imagination No burden of top-down motivation No Principles
  • 47. Simplified Model Example MASS ˜ g color octet majorana fermion (“Gluino”) THREE-BODY DECAY ¯ qq ˜ g 0 ˜ q 1 ˜ neutral majorana fermion (“LSP”)
  • 48. Gluino Pair Production q ¯ q g ˜ g ˜ g g ˜ g ¯ q q
  • 49. Gluino Pair Production q ¯ q p g ˜ g ˜ g p g ˜ g ¯ q q
  • 50. Gluino Pair Production j j q ¯ q p g ˜ g ˜ g p g ˜ g ¯ q q j j
  • 51. Gluino Pair Production j j q ¯ q p g ˜ g ˜ g ET p g ˜ g ¯ q q j j
  • 52. Gluino Pair Production j j q ¯ q p g ˜ g ˜ g ET p g ˜ g ¯ q q j j Multijets + Missing Energy
  • 53. Common Susy Search Strategy Base searches on mSUGRA Supersymmetry mg = 7m ˜ 0 Not general Risk Type 1 Failure
  • 54. Allowed us to place limits on new theories with little data ˜ g ¯ qq LHC 70 nb-1 !prod = 3!" NLO-QCD 100 pb !prod = !" NLO-QCD 200 pb !prod = 0.3 !" NLO-QCD 300 pb !prod = 0.1 !" NLO-QCD 500 pb Sample theory 1 nb Tevatron 2 nb mSUGRA
  • 56. Has led to more searches Modified Triggering More kinematic regions searched Unfortunately, no discoveries (yet)
  • 57. Summary of Simplified Models Too many theories to search for Simp. Mods.: axes for decomposing all theories Reduce theory prejudice Represent natural extension of Effective Field Theory to the LHC In the Discovery Era Construct incomplete models to fit data When incomplete model doesn’t work extend model Then construct Theory (understand Principles)
  • 58. End