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Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia
1. PETROBRAS’ BUSINESS PLAN
AT A GLANCE
José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
CEO
November, 1st 2011
Thomson Reuters Asia
1
2. Petrobras’ production targets…
6,418
142
246
1.120
3,993
+ 35 Systems
125
180
2,772 618
2,516 2,575
2,386 96
96 93
99 141 +10 Post-Salt Projects
132 144 435 4,910
111 317 334 +8 Pre-Salt Projects
321
+1 Transfer of Rights
3,070
845
’000 boe/day
Transfer of Rights
1.855 1.971 2.004 2.100 Added Capacity
Oil: 2,300,000 bpd 13
Pre-Salt 1,148
543
2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International
2
3. … will call for critical resources …
Delivery Plan (to be contracted)
Current Situation Accumulated Value
Critical Resources (Dec/10)
By 2013 By 2015 By 2020
Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 15 39 37 (1) 65 (2)
Supply and Special Vessel 287 423 479 568
Production Platforms (SS and FPSO) 44 54 61 94
Others (Jacket and TLWP) 78 80 81 83
Supply Vessel Drilling Rig FPSO
DRILLING RIGS UNDER CONTRACT
Water Depth 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11
1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21 +2 +1 +1
Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15 +10 +13 +1
(1) The contracts for two rigs reallocated from international operations expire in 2015
(2) Long-term demand will be adjusted according to new assessments 3
4. … that will be increasingly built in brazil …
US$ billion
60 75,40% 75,60% 75,60% 74,60% 76,10% 80%
74,30%
70,00%
70%
50 72,80%
62,20%
67,20% 68,50%
57,00% 66,00% 60%
63,10% 64,00%
59,70% 59,90%
40 57,30%
50%
30 40%
30%
20
20%
10
10%
0 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Investments in Brazil Total Investments Local Content (target) Local Content (actual)
4
5. ... as already happens with platforms at the new shipyards
Under Construction:
P-55: Estaleiro Atlântico Sul – PE (hull) /QUIP- RS (modules)
Recently built platform:
P-57: BrasFels – RJ
Capacity: 180 thous. boe/day
Value: US$ 1.2 billion
Delivered two months ahead of schedule
P-56: Brasfels (RJ)
Under Construction:
P-61: Brasfels (RJ)
P-62: Jurong (ES)
FPSO Cidade de Paraty: Brasfels (RJ) - modules and integration
FPSO Cidade de São Paulo: Brasfels (RJ) - modules and integration
Under Construction:
P-63: QUIP (RS)
8 FPSOs (Pre-salt - P-66; P-67; P-68; P-69; P-70; P-71; P-72; P-73 ): Ecovix – Rio Grande (RS)
P-58: Estaleiro Rio Grande –RS , UTC Engenharia S/A – RJ e EBE – RJ.
2 Jack-ups under construction (P-59 and P-60) in São Roque (BA)
Inclusion of 900 new suppliers per year in Petrobras' Corporate Vendor List
13 new shipyards currently under construction, raising the total number to 50*
*Source: Sinaval 5
7. Petrobras holds an outstanding resources base …
Potential
increase
Million boe
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
Onshore 0-300 m 300-1500 m > 1500 m Pre-salt's Recoverable Volume Transfer of Rights
7
8. … and our business plan is mostly funded by operating cash flow
Scenario A Scenario B KEY ASSUMPTIONS
US$ 256,1 US$ 256,1 US$ 255,6 US$ 255,6 Scenario A Scenario B
13,6 13,6
31,4 30,9 FX rate (R$/US$) 1.73 1.73
26,1 26,1
2011 – 110 2011 – 110
67,0 2012 – 80 2012 – 95
91,4
Brent (US$/bbl) 2013– 80 2013– 95
2014 – 80 2014 – 95
224,7 224,7 2015 – 80 2015 – 95
Leverage
29% 26%
148,9 (average)
125,0
Net debt/
1.9 1.5
Ebitda (average)
ARP (R$/bbl) 158 177
Sources Uses Sources Uses
40% of capex in US$ (vs 37% in the previous plan)
Divestments and reestructurings Debt amortization
Cash Investiments
Debt
Operating cash flow (after dividends)
8
9. To meet the increase in oil products demand in Brazil we will expand
our refining capacity ... PREMIUM I
(2nd train)
300 kbpd
(2019)
COMPERJ
(2nd train)
165 kbpd
(2018)
PREMIUM II
300 kbpd
COMPERJ (2017)
(1st train)
165 kbpd PREMIUM I
(2013) (1st train)
300 kbpd 3.327
(2016)
ABREU E LIMA
230 kbpd 3.095
(2012) 2.643
2.536 4.910
3.070 3.217
(thousand bpd)
2.147 2.100 2.208 2.205
2.004
1.798 1.811
1.393
1.036
181
1980 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil and NGL production - Brazil Throughput - Brazil Oil products demand (2 scenarios)
9