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The purpose of the plan is to evaluate distressed counties in eastern Kentucky in order to develop the local civic capacity to plan for and maximize the regional impact of the emerging adventure tourism industry.
The outcome of the plan is to identify and document the existing resources, assets, and opportunities available for adventure activities and establish a strategy for developing a more substantial adventure tourism market. In addition, the planning process will help to develop organizational resources to support ongoing coordination and implementation to expand on the opportunities. Finally, this plan will quantify the physical, economic, financial and liability issues to support effective decision-making for future investment and priority action plan development.
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Perryman nueces county courthouse development impact 1 12 2021
1. THE
PERRYMAN GROUP
254.751.9595 info@perrymangroup.com www.PerrymanGroup.com
The Potential Impact of Development of the
Old Nueces County Courthouse and
Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
January 2021
2. The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Contents
Executive Summary .........................................................................................i
Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1
The Proposed Old Nueces County Courthouse Development............ 3
Economic Benefits.......................................................................................... 4
Construction.................................................................................................................... 6
Ongoing Economic Benefits......................................................................................... 7
Phase One ..............................................................................................................................................8
Subsequent Phases...............................................................................................................................9
Total Phase One and Subsequent Phases..................................................................................... 10
Fiscal Benefits ...............................................................................................11
Corpus Christi Baseline Economic Outlook ...........................................13
Conclusion......................................................................................................15
Appendix A: Methods Used.......................................................................16
US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System.....................................................16
US Multi-Regional Econometric Model...................................................................19
US Multi-Regional Real Estate Absorption System..............................................25
Appendix B: Detailed Results....................................................................26
Construction..................................................................................................................26
Operations and Incremental Tourism: Phase One................................................30
Operations and Incremental Tourism: Subsequent Phases ................................34
Operations and Incremental Tourism: Total Phase One and Subsequent
Phases.............................................................................................................................38
3. i
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Executive Summary
• Renovation of the Old Nueces County Courthouse into a boutique hotel
and related developments has the potential to enhance the attractiveness
of an already popular destination, producing spillover effects that benefit
and create significant synergies with other local businesses.
• Construction/renovation includes not only development of the boutique
hotel with dining facilities, but also infrastructure improvements, retail
space, parking facilities, and a performing arts center. When multiplier
effects are considered, economic benefits of all construction phases
include an estimated $431.7 million in gross product and 4,862 job-years
of employment.
• Once operational, the new hotel, restaurant facilities, retail stores, and
other commercial operations in the development would lead to ongoing
economic benefits. In addition, the attraction has the potential to generate
incremental tourism. The Perryman Group estimates that ongoing
economic benefits of all planned phases of the development include
$140.6 million in annual gross product and 1,703 jobs in Nueces County
(including multiplier effects).
• The economic stimulus associated with construction/renovation and
operations/tourism of the Old Nueces County Courthouse development
(measured in the course of this study) leads to increases in potential tax
receipts to the State and local government entities including counties,
cities, schools, and special districts. The Perryman Group estimates that the
potential increase in tax receipts would include
• $26.2 million to the State and $21.5 million to local government
entities due to construction and renovation, and
• $12.9 million to the State and $7.7 million to local government
entities per year due to ongoing operations and incremental
tourism (at maturity).
• As part of this assessment, The Perryman Group developed a long-term
baseline economic forecast for the area. By 2045, the population of the
Corpus Christi Metropolitan Statistical Area is projected to grow by more
than 102,000 to reach almost 536,000. Job growth is forecast to occur at a
4. ii
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
1.54% annual rate over the period, for a gain of nearly 87,800 jobs by
2045.
• Based on these levels of expected growth and the region’s ongoing tourism
development, the Old Nueces County Courthouse renovation and related
facilities appear to be well within the capacity of the area to absorb.
• Preserving and redeveloping the Old Nueces County Courthouse is a
project which not only maintains and elevates a building of historical
significance and enhances the appeal of nearby areas, but also generates a
substantial increase in business activity for the Nueces County area.
5. 1
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Introduction
Tourism has long been an important part of the Corpus Christi and
surrounding regional economies. According to the Corpus Christi
Convention and Visitor Bureau, approximately 8 million visitors come to
the area every year, with about 74% from other parts of the state.
More than 1 out of 10 nonfarm
jobs in the area are related to
the travel and tourism industry
and tourism contributes an
annual economic impact of $1
billion to the region.
An obvious part of the
attraction to the region are the
natural assets. The Corpus Christi area has over 113 miles of beaches,
including 70 miles on Padre and Mustang islands, and boasts numerous
public beaches as well as the Padre Island National Seashore. The
Corpus Christi Bay is also a major destination for water and wind
sports, hosting the US Open Windsurfing and Kiteboarding Regatta. For
fishing and other water activities, the area boasts access to the Gulf of
Mexico, as well as more protected waterways such as the Laguna
Madre.
Corpus Christi also has numerous tourist attractions. The Texas State
Aquarium is the largest aquarium in the state and features over 400
species and other interactive exhibits. The USS Lexington Museum on
the Bay is another well-known tourist destination and is an aircraft
carrier turned museum that was in service during World War II. Other
popular museums include the Corpus Christi Museum of Science and
History and the Art Museum of South Texas. Corpus Christi is also
home to the Hooks, a minor league baseball team affiliated with the
Astros. Many of the most popular attractions are within minutes of the
Old Nueces County Courthouse.
The Perryman Group (TPG) was recently asked to evaluate the
potential economic benefits of renovation of the Old Nueces County
Courthouse into a boutique hotel and related developments in the area.
This analysis indicates that the development has the potential to
The Old Nueces County Courthouse
renovation and related development
has the potential to enhance the
attractiveness of an already popular
destination.
6. 2
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
enhance the attractiveness of an already popular destination. An area
with multiple attractions and activities will be a more popular
destination and new developments have the capability of producing
spillover effects that benefit and create significant synergies with other
local businesses.
7. 3
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Proposed Old Nueces County Courthouse
Development
The Old Nueces County Courthouse was bult in 1914 with an
additional wing added in 1931. It received designation on the National
Register of Historic Places in 1976. The courthouse has not been in use
for many years, and the proposed plan is to redevelop the location into
a high-end boutique hotel with
approximately 170 rooms and
restaurant facilities. In addition,
parking and retail space will be
added.
Phase One of the project
includes construction of
necessary infrastructure,
renovation of the courthouse into a boutique hotel, and a parking
garage to support the hotel with retail operations on the first floor.
Anticipated development subsequent to Phase One includes high-rise
and mid-rise housing, creative office space, additional retail outlets,
townhomes, a performing arts center, and associated parking facilities.
The redevelopment of the historic building will be a major improvement
and attraction for the area, with synergistic potential for other nearby
attractions.
The redevelopment of the historic
building will be a major improvement
and attraction for the area, with
synergistic potential for other nearby
attractions.
8. 4
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Economic Benefits
Any economic stimulus leads to dynamic responses across the
economy. The Perryman Group has developed complex and
comprehensive models to measure these dynamic responses over the
past four decades.
In this instance, renovation and
construction related to the
development generate a
significant, though transitory,
stimulus. Once completed,
ongoing economic benefits would be generated by the daily operations
of businesses housed in the development as well as incremental
tourism.
Impacts were measured for the phases previously described. The
methods used in this analysis are summarized on the following page,
with additional detail in Appendix A.
Any economic stimulus leads to
dynamic responses across the
economy.
9. 5
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Measuring Economic and Fiscal Impacts
Any economic stimulus, whether positive or negative, generates multiplier effects
throughout the economy. In this instance, redevelopment of the Old Nueces County
Courthouse and the associated complementary development of nearby facilities leads to
an increase in direct spending during the construction and renovation phases as well as
once operational. In addition, the development has the potential to increase tourism to
the area. Increased economic activity generates tax receipts to the State and local
governments.
The Perryman Group’s dynamic input-output assessment system (the US Multi-Regional
Impact Assessment System, which is described in further detail in the Appendices to this
report) was developed by the firm about 40 years ago and has been consistently
maintained and updated since that time. The model has been used in hundreds of
analyses for clients ranging from major corporations to government agencies and has
been peer reviewed on multiple occasions. The impact system uses a variety of data
(from surveys, industry information, and other sources) to describe the various goods and
services (known as resources or inputs) required to produce another good/service. This
process allows for estimation of the total economic impact (including multiplier effects) of
the proposed development. The models used in the current analysis reflect the specific
industrial composition and characteristics of Nueces County.
Total economic effects are quantified for key measures of business activity (further
explained in Appendix A):
• Total expenditures (or total spending) measure the dollars changing hands as a result
of the economic stimulus.
• Gross product (or output) is production of goods and services that will come about in
the area as a result of the activity. This measure is parallel to the gross domestic
product numbers commonly reported by various media outlets and is a subset of total
expenditures.
• Personal income is dollars that end up in the hands of people in the area; the vast
majority of this aggregate derives from the earnings of employees, but payments such
as interest and rents are also included.
• Job gains are expressed as job-years of employment for temporary stimuli such as
construction and jobs for ongoing effects.
Monetary values were quantified on a constant (2020) basis to eliminate the effects of
inflation. See Appendix A for additional information regarding the methods and
assumptions used in this analysis.
10. 6
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Construction
The Perryman Group estimated the increase in business activity
generated by construction/renovation of the Old Nueces County
Courthouse and related
development including
infrastructure improvements,
retail space, parking facilities,
and a performing arts center.
When multiplier effects are
considered, economic benefits
of all construction phases
include an estimated $136.2
million in gross product and 1,527 job-years of employment during
Phase One, with $295.5 million in gross product and 3,335 job-years
for subsequent phases. Summing results for all phases yields an
estimate of total economic benefits of construction of $431.7 million in
gross product and 4,862 job-years (including multiplier effects). A job-
year is one person working for one year, though it could be multiple
individuals working partial years.
The construction/renovation phase
would generate estimated economic
benefits of $431.7 million in gross
product and 4,862 job-years in the
Corpus Christi area.
Economic Benefits of Construction and Related Activity
Associated with Development of the Old Nueces County
Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on Nueces County
Total
Expenditures
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Gross
Product
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Personal
Income
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Employment
(Job-Years)
Phase One $290.019 $136.152 $94.029 1,527
Subsequent
Phases
$641.556 $295.525 $203.086 3,335
TOTAL $931.576 $431.677 $297.115 4,862
Note: Based on current proposed development plans and The Perryman Group’s estimates of related multiplier
effects. A job-year is one person working for a year, though it could be multiple individuals working partial years.
Additional definitions of terms and explanation of methods and assumptions may be found on page 5 of this
report and in Appendix A. Phase One construction includes necessary infrastructure, renovation of the
courthouse into a boutique hotel, and a parking garage to support the hotel with retail operations on the first
floor. Anticipated development subsequent to Phase One includes high-rise and mid-rise housing, creative office
space, additional retail outlets, townhomes, a performing arts center, and associated parking facilities.
Components may not sum to totals due to rounding. Results by industry are included in Appendix B.
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
11. 7
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Economic benefits are spread across the entire economy; results by
industry are provided in Appendix B.
Ongoing Economic Benefits
Once operational, the new hotel, restaurant facilities, retail stores, and
other commercial operations in the development would lead to ongoing
economic benefits. In addition,
the attraction has the potential
to generate incremental
tourism.
The Perryman Group
estimated the increase in
business activity generated by
the development (including
multiplier effects) for Phase One and subsequent phases. Summary
results are outlined in this section, with effects by industry in Appendix
B.
Once operational, the new commercial
operations in the development would
lead to ongoing economic benefits as
well as incremental tourism.
12. 8
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Phase One
As noted, Phase One of the development includes renovation of the
Courthouse into a boutique hotel with restaurant facilities and a
parking garage with retail space in the bottom level. The hotel could be
expected to generate notable incremental tourism given the
attractiveness of the historic building and proximity to other amenities.
The Perryman Group estimates that the total potential ongoing benefits
of operations and incremental tourism once Phase One of the
development reaches maturity include over $45.4 million in gross
product each year and 605 jobs in Nueces County (including multiplier
effects).
Potential Economic Benefits of Ongoing Operations and
Incremental Tourism Associated with Phase One of the
Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related
Development on Nueces County
Total
Expenditures
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Gross
Product
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Personal
Income
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Employment
(Jobs)
Ongoing
Operations
$41.151 $22.508 $13.821 300
Incremental
Tourism
$41.712 $22.920 $13.972 305
TOTAL $82.863 $45.428 $27.793 605
Note: Based on current proposed development plans and The Perryman Group’s estimates of related multiplier
effects. Additional definitions of terms and explanation of methods and assumptions may be found on page 5 of
this report and in Appendix A. Phase One operations include the boutique hotel (including food and beverage
facilities) and retail outlets. Subsequent operations include the creative office space, additional retail outlets, and
the performing arts center. Components may not sum to totals due to rounding. Results by industry are included
in Appendix B.
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
13. 9
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Subsequent Phases
Subsequent phases of the development include creative office space,
additional retail outlets, and a performing arts center. These commercial
operations and related incremental tourism would increase the
economic benefits of the development by an estimated $95.2 million in
annual gross product and 1,098 jobs in Nueces County (including
multiplier effects).
Potential Economic Benefits of Ongoing Operations and
Incremental Tourism Associated with Subsequent Phases
of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related
Development on Nueces County
Total
Expenditures
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Gross
Product
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Personal
Income
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Employment
(Jobs)
Ongoing
Operations
$165.844 $89.198 $60.203 1,018
Incremental
Tourism
$10.988 $6.020 $3.670 80
TOTAL $176.832 $95.219 $63.872 1,098
Note: Based on current proposed development plans and The Perryman Group’s estimates of related multiplier
effects. Additional definitions of terms and explanation of methods and assumptions may be found on page 5 of
this report and in Appendix A. Subsequent operations include the creative office space, additional retail outlets,
and the performing arts center. Components may not sum to totals due to rounding. Results by industry are
included in Appendix B.
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
14. 10
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Total Phase One and Subsequent Phases
Summing the potential economic benefits of all planned phases of the
development yields an estimated ongoing increase in business activity
associated with the Old Nueces County Courthouse and related
development of $140.6 million in annual gross product and 1,703 jobs
in Nueces County (including multiplier effects).
Total Potential Economic Benefits of Ongoing
Operations and Incremental Tourism Associated with all
Phases of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and
Related Development on Nueces County
Total
Expenditures
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Gross
Product
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Personal
Income
(Millions of 2020
Dollars)
Employment
(Jobs)
Ongoing
Operations
$206.995 $111.706 $74.024 1,317
Incremental
Tourism
$52.700 $28.940 $17.642 385
TOTAL $259.695 $140.647 $91.666 1,703
Note: Based on current proposed development plans and The Perryman Group’s estimates of related multiplier
effects. Additional definitions of terms and explanation of methods and assumptions may be found on page 5 of
this report and in Appendix A. Phase One operations include the boutique hotel (including food and beverage
facilities) and retail outlets. Subsequent operations include the creative office space, additional retail outlets, and
the performing arts center. Components may not sum to totals due to rounding. Results by industry are included
in Appendix B.
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
15. 11
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Fiscal Benefits
Business activity generates tax revenue. The economic stimulus
associated with construction/renovation and operations/tourism of the
Old Nueces County Courthouse development (measured in the course
of this study) lead to increases in tax receipts to the State and local
government entities including counties, cities, schools, and special
districts. Taxes are generated based on the increase in economic
activity quantified by The Perryman Group and described in the
preceding sections.
For example, the retail sales increase as a result of the economic
stimulus measured in this study was quantified (results appear in
Appendix B). A portion of
these retail sales are taxable,
leading to increased receipts to
the State and local taxing
entities. Economic benefits
also affect property tax values.
Higher incomes increase
housing demand, leading to
higher taxable values as well as
additional need for houses. In
addition, increased retail sales
and incomes enhance the need
for commercial space such as
restaurants, retail outlets, and
personal service facilities.
Higher property values
increase taxes to counties, cities, school districts, and other local taxing
entities.
When the total economic effects are considered (such as those
measured in this study), the gains in taxes from these sources are
significant. The Perryman Group estimates that the potential increase in
tax receipts would include
• $26.2 million to the State and $21.5 million to local government
entities due to construction and renovation, and
The Perryman Group estimates that the
potential increase in tax receipts would
include
• $26.2 million to the State and $21.5
million to local government entities due
to construction and renovation, and
• $12.9 million to the State and $7.7
million to local government entities per
year due to ongoing operations and
incremental tourism.
16. 12
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
• $12.9 million to the State and $7.7 million to local government
entities per year due to ongoing operations and incremental
tourism.
Potential Fiscal Benefits of the Old Nueces County
Courthouse and Related Development
(in Millions of 2020 Dollars)
State of
Texas
Local
Entities
Total Effects during
Construction and
Renovation
Phase One $8.004 $6.729
Subsequent Phases $18.201 $14.733
Total $26.205 $21.462
Annual Effects of Ongoing
Operations and
Incremental Tourism
Phase One $5.022 $2.567
Subsequent Phases $7.858 $5.122
Total $12.880 $7.689
Note: Dynamic fiscal benefits based on the increase in economic activity associated with construction/renovation,
ongoing operations, and incremental tourism at maturity associated with the Old Nueces County Courthouse and
The Perryman Group’s estimates of related tax increases.
Source: The Perryman Group
17. 13
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Corpus Christi Baseline Economic Outlook
As part of this assessment, The Perryman Group developed a long-term
baseline economic forecast for the Corpus Christi Metropolitan
Statistical Area (which includes Nueces County as well as Aransas and
San Patricio counties). The
outlook for the area economy is
positive, with notable growth
expected over the long-term
horizon (though business cycles
in intervening years are likely).
By 2045, The Perryman Group
projects that the population of
the Corpus Christi Metropolitan
Statistical Area will grow by more than 102,000 to reach almost
536,000. Job growth is forecast to occur at a 1.54% annual rate over
the period, for a gain of nearly 87,800 jobs by 2045.
By 2045, The Perryman Group projects
that the population of the Corpus
Christi Metropolitan Statistical Area will
grow by more than 102,000 to reach
almost 536,000.
Projected Key Economic Indicators for the
Corpus Christi Metropolitan Statistical Area
Economic
Indicator
2020 Level 2045 Level
Annual
Growth
Rate
2020-45
Change
Real Gross
Product
$21.3 billion $44.4 billion 2.99% +$23.1 billion
Real Personal
Income
$18.7 billion $43.0 billion 3.38% +$24.3 billion
Real Retail
Sales
$5.6 billion $12.8 billion 3.33% +$7.1 billion
Population 433,587 535,956 0.85% +102,369
Employment 189,066 276,850 1.54% +87,784
Housing
Permits
2,011 1,656 -0.78% -356
Note: Monetary values given in billions of 2012 dollars. Growth rates are compound annual growth rates,
meaning that they reflect changes in the base from which growth is calculated.
Source: US Multi-Regional Econometric Model, The Perryman Group
18. 14
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Like most areas, the largest numbers of new jobs are forecast to occur
in the services sector, followed by wholesale and retail trade. The
fastest rates of increase are expected to be in the mining, services, and
manufacturing industry groups.
These projections were used in a real estate absorption analysis to
evaluate the demand for various types of new real estate within the
area over the next decade. Based on these levels of expected growth
and the region’s ongoing tourism development, the Old Nueces County
Courthouse renovation and related facilities appear to be well within
the capacity of the area to absorb.
Projected Growth by Industry Sector:
Corpus Christi Metropolitan Statistical Area
Industry
Sector
2020-45
Employment
Increase
Annual
Employment
Growth Rate
2020-45
Real Gross
Product
Increase
(in billions)
Annual Real
Gross
Product
Growth Rate
Agriculture +72 0.32% +$0.107 b 0.91%
Mining +2,115 2.12% +$4.491 b 4.73%
Utilities +21 0.10% +$0.104 b 1.25%
Construction +6,357 1.19% +$0.920 b 2.05%
Manufacturing +1,521 0.68% +$5.910 b 3.46%
Wholesale &
Retail Trade
+9,193 1.20% +$2.332 b 2.88%
Transportation
& Warehousing
+2,174 1.47% +$0.275 b 2.47%
Information +251 0.61% +$0.547 b 3.29%
Finance,
Insurance &
Real Estate
+281 0.13% +$0.954 b 1.42%
Services +61,086 2.32% +$6.218 b 3.52%
Government +4,713 0.48% +$1.287 b 1.48%
Total, All
Industries
+87,784 1.54% +$23.143 b 2.99%
Note: Monetary values given in billions of 2012 dollars. Growth rates are compound annual growth rates,
meaning that they reflect changes in the base from which growth is calculated. The Corpus Christi Metropolitan
Statistical Area includes Nueces, Aransas, and San Patricio counties.
Source: US Multi-Regional Econometric Model, The Perryman Group
19. 15
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Conclusion
Corpus Christi and the surrounding region have long been one of the
major tourism destinations in the state. The Old Nueces County
Courthouse development builds on these strengths and offers a venue
for residents as well. The
location proximate to other
attractions can lead to synergies
and enhanced opportunities for
all.
Construction/renovation of the
Courthouse and related
development has the potential
to lead to gains of $431.7
million in gross product and
4,862 job-years of employment
including multiplier effects.
Once fully operational, the area
can expect an increase in business activity from operations and
incremental tourism of an estimated $140.6 million in annual gross
product and 1,703 jobs when multiplier effects are considered. This
economic activity generates tax receipts to the State and local
governments.
Preserving and redeveloping the Old Nueces County Courthouse is a
project which not only maintains and elevates a building of historical
significance and enhances the appeal of nearby areas, but also
generates a substantial increase in business activity for the Corpus
Christi area.
Preserving and redeveloping the Old
Nueces County Courthouse is a project
which not only maintains and elevates a
building of historical significance and
enhances the appeal of nearby areas,
but also generates a substantial
increase in business activity for the
Corpus Christi area.
20. 16
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Appendix A: Methods Used
US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System
Overview
The US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System (USMRIAS) measures
multiplier effects of economic stimuli. The USMRIAS was developed and is
maintained by The Perryman Group. This model has been used in hundreds of
diverse applications across the country and has an excellent reputation for
accuracy and credibility; it has also been peer reviewed on multiple occasions and
has been a key factor in major national and international policy simulations.
The basic modeling technique is known as dynamic input-output analysis, which
essentially uses extensive survey data, industry information, and a variety of
corroborative source materials to create a matrix describing the various goods
and services (known as resources or inputs) required to produce one unit (a
dollar’s worth) of output for a given sector. Once the base information is
compiled, it can be mathematically simulated to generate evaluations of the
magnitude of successive rounds of activity involved in the overall production
process.
There are two essential steps in conducting an input-output analysis once the
system is operational. The first major endeavor is to accurately define the levels
of direct activity to be evaluated. In this instance, estimates of construction costs
and the expected characteristics of the development were provided by JE Dunn
Construction based on current plans. The estimated direct tourism effects for
each phase were derived from analysis within the US Multi-Regional Econometric
Model. Operational and attendance effects of the performing arts center were
derived from performance statistics from comparable facilities, with proper
adjustment for the size characteristics of the proposed facility.
These inputs were used in a simulation of the input-output system to measure
total overall economic effects of the direct stimulus. The system used reflects the
unique industrial structure of the Nueces County economy.
Model Structure
The USMRIAS is somewhat similar in format to the Input-Output Model of the
United States which is maintained by the US Department of Commerce. The
21. 17
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
model developed by TPG, however, incorporates several important enhancements
and refinements. Specifically, the expanded system includes (1) comprehensive
500-sector coverage for any county, multi-county, or urban region; (2) calculation
of both total expenditures and value-added by industry and region; (3) direct
estimation of expenditures for multiple basic input choices (expenditures, output,
income, or employment); (4) extensive parameter localization; (5) price
adjustments for real and nominal assessments by sectors and areas; (6)
comprehensive measurement of the induced impacts associated with payrolls and
consumer spending; (7) embedded modules to estimate multi-sectoral direct
spending effects; (8) estimation of retail spending activity by consumers; and (9)
comprehensive linkage and integration capabilities with a wide variety of
econometric, real estate, occupational, and fiscal impact models.
The impact assessment (input-output) process essentially estimates the amounts
of all types of goods and services required to produce one unit (a dollar’s worth)
of a specific type of output. For purposes of illustrating the nature of the system,
it is useful to think of inputs and outputs in dollar (rather than physical) terms. As
an example, the construction of a new building will require specific dollar amounts
of lumber, glass, concrete, hand tools, architectural services, interior design
services, paint, plumbing, and numerous other elements. Each of these suppliers
must, in turn, purchase additional dollar amounts of inputs. This process continues
through multiple rounds of production, thus generating subsequent increments to
business activity. The initial process of building the facility is known as the direct
effect. The ensuing transactions in the output chain constitute the indirect effect.
Another pattern that arises in response to any direct economic activity comes
from the payroll dollars received by employees at each stage of the production
cycle. As workers are compensated, they use some of their income for taxes,
savings, and purchases from external markets. A substantial portion, however, is
spent locally on food, clothing, health care services, utilities, housing, recreation,
and other items. Typical purchasing patterns in the relevant areas are obtained
from the Center for Community and Economic Research Cost of Living Index, a
privately compiled inter-regional measure which has been widely used for several
decades, and the Consumer Expenditure Survey of the US Department of Labor.
These initial outlays by area residents generate further secondary activity as local
providers acquire inputs to meet this consumer demand. These consumer
spending impacts are known as the induced effect. The USMRIAS is designed to
provide realistic, yet conservative, estimates of these phenomena.
Sources for information used in this process include the Bureau of the Census, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Regional Economic Information System of the US
Department of Commerce, and other public and private sources. The pricing data
22. 18
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
are compiled from the US Department of Labor and the US Department of
Commerce. The verification and testing procedures make use of extensive public
and private sources.
Impacts are typically measured in constant dollars to eliminate the effects of
inflation.
The USMRIAS is also integrated with a comprehensive fiscal model, which links
the tax payments by industry to the specific rates and structures associated with
the relevant State and local governmental authorities.
Measures of Business Activity
The USMRIAS generates estimates of total economic effects on several measures
of business activity. Note that these are different ways of measuring the same
impacts; they are not additive.
The most comprehensive measure of economic activity is Total Expenditures.
This measure incorporates every dollar that changes hands in any transaction. For
example, suppose a farmer sells wheat to a miller for $0.50; the miller then sells
flour to a baker for $0.75; the baker, in turn, sells bread to a customer for $1.25.
The Total Expenditures recorded in this instance would be $2.50, that is, $0.50 +
$0.75 + $1.25. This measure is quite broad but is useful in that (1) it reflects the
overall interplay of all industries in the economy, and (2) some key fiscal variables
such as sales taxes are linked to aggregate spending.
A second measure of business activity is Gross Product. This indicator represents
the regional equivalent of Gross Domestic Product, the most commonly reported
statistic regarding national economic performance. In other words, the Gross
Product of Texas is the amount of US output that is produced in that state; it is
defined as the value of all final goods produced in a given region for a specific
period of time. Stated differently, it captures the amount of value-added (gross
area product) over intermediate goods and services at each stage of the
production process, that is, it eliminates the double counting in the Total
Expenditures concept. Using the example above, the Gross Product is $1.25 (the
value of the bread) rather than $2.50. Alternatively, it may be viewed as the sum
of the value-added by the farmer, $0.50; the miller, $0.25 ($0.75 - $0.50); and the
baker, $0.50 ($1.25 - $0.75). The total value-added is, therefore, $1.25, which is
equivalent to the final value of the bread. In many industries, the primary
component of value-added is the wage and salary payments to employees.
23. 19
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The third gauge of economic activity used in this evaluation is Personal Income.
As the name implies, Personal Income is simply the income received by
individuals, whether in the form of wages, salaries, interest, dividends, proprietors’
profits, or other sources. It may thus be viewed as the segment of overall impacts
which flows directly to the citizenry.
The fourth measure, Retail Sales, represents the component of Total
Expenditures which occurs in retail outlets (general merchandise stores,
automobile dealers and service stations, building materials stores, food stores,
drugstores, restaurants, and so forth). Retail Sales is a commonly used measure of
consumer activity.
The final aggregates used are Jobs and Job-Years, which reflect the full-time
equivalent jobs generated by an activity. For an economic stimulus expected to
endure (such as the ongoing operations of a facility), the Jobs measure is used. It
should be noted that, unlike the dollar values described above, Jobs is a “stock”
rather than a “flow.” In other words, if an area produces $1 million in output in
2019 and $1 million in 2020, it is appropriate to say that $2 million was achieved
in the 2019-20 period. If the same area has 100 people working in 2019 and 100
in 2020, it only has 100 Jobs. When a flow of jobs is measured, such as in a
construction project or a cumulative assessment over multiple years, it is
appropriate to measure employment in Job-Years (a person working for a year,
though it could be multiple individuals working for partial years). This concept is
distinct from Jobs, which anticipates that the relevant positions will be maintained
on a continuing basis.
US Multi-Regional Econometric Model
The Perryman Group’s econometric model was used to develop a baseline
forecast for the Corpus Christi area. Among other applications, this system was
used in the current analysis to simulate the direct tourism effects of the new
facilities and to provide key inputs for the real estate absorption analysis.
Overview
The US Multi-Regional Econometric Model was developed by Dr. M. Ray
Perryman, President and CEO of The Perryman Group (TPG), about 40 years ago
and has been consistently maintained, expanded, and updated since that time. It is
formulated in an internally consistent manner and is designed to permit the
integration of relevant global, national, state, and local factors into the projection
24. 20
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
process. It is the result of four decades of continuing research in econometrics,
economic theory, statistical methods, and key policy issues and behavioral
patterns, as well as intensive, ongoing study of all aspects of the global, US, state,
and metropolitan area economies. It is extensively used by scores of federal and
State governmental entities on an ongoing basis, as well as hundreds of major
corporations. It can be integrated with The Perryman Group’s other models and
systems to provide dynamic projections.
This section describes the forecasting process in a comprehensive manner,
focusing on both the modeling and the supplemental analysis. The overall
methodology, while certainly not ensuring perfect foresight, permits an enormous
body of relevant information to impact the economic outlook in a systematic
manner.
Model Logic and Structure
The Model revolves around a core system which projects output (real and
nominal), income (real and nominal), and employment by industry in a
simultaneous manner. For purposes of illustration, it is useful to initially consider
the employment functions. Essentially, employment within the system is a derived
demand relationship obtained from a neo-Classical production function. The
expressions are augmented to include dynamic temporal adjustments to changes
in relative factor input costs, output and (implicitly) productivity, and
technological progress over time. Thus, the typical equation includes output, the
relative real cost of labor and capital, dynamic lag structures, and a technological
adjustment parameter. The functional form is logarithmic, thus preserving the
theoretical consistency with the neo-Classical formulation.
The income segment of the model is divided into wage and non-wage
components. The wage equations, like their employment counterparts, are
individually estimated at the 3-digit North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) level of aggregation. Hence, income by place of work is measured
for approximately 90 production categories. The wage equations measure real
compensation, with the form of the variable structure differing between “basic”
and “non-basic.”
The basic industries, comprised primarily of the various components of Mining,
Agriculture, and Manufacturing, are export-oriented, i.e., they bring external
dollars into the area and form the core of the economy. The production of these
sectors typically flows into national and international markets; hence, the labor
markets are influenced by conditions in areas beyond the borders of the particular
25. 21
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
region. Thus, real (inflation-adjusted) wages in the basic industry are expressed as
a function of the corresponding national rates, as well as measures of local labor
market conditions (the reciprocal of the unemployment rate), dynamic adjustment
parameters, and ongoing trends.
The “non-basic” sectors are somewhat different in nature, as the strength of their
labor markets is linked to the health of the local export sectors. Consequently,
wages in these industries are related to those in the basic segment of the
economy. The relationship also includes the local labor market measures
contained in the basic wage equations.
Note that compensation rates in the export or “basic” sectors provide a key
element of the interaction of the regional economies with national and
international market phenomena, while the “non-basic” or local industries are
strongly impacted by area production levels. Given the wage and employment
equations, multiplicative identities in each industry provide expressions for total
compensation; these totals may then be aggregated to determine aggregate wage
and salary income. Simple linkage equations are then estimated for the calculation
of personal income by place of work.
The non-labor aspects of personal income are modeled at the regional level using
straightforward empirical expressions relating to national performance, dynamic
responses, and evolving temporal patterns. In some instances (such as dividends,
rents, and others) national variables (for example, interest rates) directly enter the
forecasting system. These factors have numerous other implicit linkages into the
system resulting from their simultaneous interaction with other phenomena in
national and international markets which are explicitly included in various
expressions.
The output or gross area product expressions are also developed at the 3-digit
NAICS level. Regional output for basic industries is linked to national performance
in the relevant industries, local and national production in key related sectors,
relative area and national labor costs in the industry, dynamic adjustment
parameters, and ongoing changes in industrial interrelationships (driven by
technological changes in production processes).
Output in the non-basic sectors is modeled as a function of basic production
levels, output in related local support industries (if applicable), dynamic temporal
adjustments, and ongoing patterns. The inter-industry linkages are obtained from
the input-output (impact assessment) system which is part of the overall
integrated modeling structure maintained by The Perryman Group. Note that the
dominant component of the econometric system involves the simultaneous
estimation and projection of output (real and nominal), income (real and nominal),
26. 22
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
and employment at a disaggregated industrial level. This process, of necessity,
also produces projections of regional price deflators by industry. These values are
affected by both national pricing patterns and local cost variations and permit
changes in prices to impact other aspects of economic behavior. Income is
converted from real to nominal terms using the Texas Consumer Price Index,
which fluctuates in response to national pricing patterns and unique local
phenomena.
Several other components of the model are critical to the forecasting process. The
demographic module includes (1) a linkage equation between wage and salary
(establishment) employment and household employment, (2) a labor force
participation rate function, and (3) a complete population system with
endogenous migration. Given household employment, labor force participation
(which is a function of economic conditions and evolving patterns of worker
preferences), and the working age population, the unemployment rate and level
become identities.
The population system uses Census information, fertility rates, and life tables to
determine the “natural” changes in population by age group. Migration, the most
difficult segment of population dynamics to track, is estimated in relation to
relative regional and extra-regional economic conditions over time. Because
evolving economic conditions determine migration in the system, population
changes are allowed to interact simultaneously with overall economic conditions.
Through this process, migration is treated as endogenous to the system, thus
allowing population to vary in accordance with relative business performance
(particularly employment).
Real retail sales is related to income, interest rates, dynamic adjustments, and
patterns in consumer behavior on a store group basis. It is expressed on an
inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation at the state level relates to national patterns,
indicators of relative economic conditions, and ongoing trends. As noted earlier,
prices are endogenous to the system.
A final significant segment of the forecasting system relates to real estate
absorption and activity. The short-term demand for various types of property is
determined by underlying economic and demographic factors, with short-term
adjustments to reflect the current status of the pertinent building cycle. In some
instances, this portion of the forecast requires integration with the US Multi-
Regional Industry-Occupation System which is maintained by The Perryman
Group. This system also allows any employment simulation or forecast from the
econometric model to be translated into a highly detailed occupational profile.
27. 23
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The overall US Multi-Regional Econometric Model contains numerous additional
specifications, and individual expressions are modified to reflect alternative lag
structures, empirical properties of the estimates, simulation requirements, and
similar phenomena. Moreover, it is updated on an ongoing basis as new data
releases become available. Nonetheless, the above synopsis offers a basic
understanding of the overall structure and underlying logic of the system.
Model Simulation and Multi-Regional Structure
The initial phase of the simulation process is the execution of a standard non-
linear algorithm for the state system and that of each of the individual sub-areas.
The external assumptions are derived from scenarios developed through national
and international models and extensive analysis by The Perryman Group.
Once the initial simulations are completed, they are merged into a single system
with additive constraints and interregional flows. Using information on minimum
regional requirements, import needs, export potential, and locations, it becomes
possible to balance the various forecasts into a mathematically consistent set of
results. This process is, in effect, a disciplining exercise with regard to the
individual regional (including metropolitan and rural) systems. By compelling
equilibrium across all regions and sectors, the algorithm ensures that the patterns
in state activity are reasonable in light of smaller area dynamics and, conversely,
that the regional outlooks are within plausible performance levels for the state as
a whole.
The iterative simulation process has the additional property of imposing a global
convergence criterion across the entire multi-regional system, with balance being
achieved simultaneously on both a sectoral and a geographic basis. This approach
is particularly critical on non-linear dynamic systems, as independent simulations
of individual systems often yield unstable, non-convergent outcomes.
It should be noted that the underlying data for the modeling and simulation
process are frequently updated and revised by the various public and private
entities compiling them. Whenever those modifications to the database occur,
they bring corresponding changes to the structural parameter estimates of the
various systems and the solutions to the simulation and forecasting system. The
multi-regional version of the econometric model is re-estimated and simulated
with each such data release, thus providing a constantly evolving and current
assessment of state and local business activity.
28. 24
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Final Forecast
The process described above is followed to produce an initial set of projections.
Through the comprehensive multi-regional modeling and simulation process, a
systematic analysis is generated which accounts for both historical patterns in
economic performance and inter-relationships and best available information on
the future course of pertinent external factors. While the best available
techniques and data are employed in this effort, they are not capable of directly
capturing “street sense,” i.e., the contemporaneous and often non-quantifiable
information that can materially affect economic outcomes. In order to provide a
comprehensive approach to the prediction of business conditions, it is necessary
to compile and assimilate extensive material regarding current events and factors
both across the state of Texas and elsewhere.
This critical aspect of the forecasting methodology includes activities such as (1)
daily review of hundreds of financial and business publications and electronic
information sites; (2) review of major newspapers and online news sources in the
state on a daily basis; (3) dozens of hours of direct telephone interviews with key
business and political leaders in all parts of the state; (4) face-to-face discussions
with representatives of major industry groups; and (5) frequent site visits to the
various regions of the state. The insights arising from this “fact finding” are
analyzed and evaluated for their effects on the likely course of the future activity.
Another vital information resource stems from the firm’s ongoing interaction with
key players in the international, domestic, and state economic scenes. Such
activities include visiting with corporate groups on a regular basis and being
regularly involved in the policy process at all levels. The firm is also an active
participant in many major corporate relocations, economic development
initiatives, and regulatory proceedings.
Once organized, this information is carefully assessed and, when appropriate,
independently verified. The impact on specific communities and sectors that is
distinct from what is captured by the econometric system is then factored into
the forecast analysis. For example, the opening or closing of a major facility,
particularly in a relatively small area, can cause a sudden change in business
performance that will not be accounted for by either a modeling system based on
historical relationships or expected (primarily national and international) factors.
The final step in the forecasting process is the integration of this material into the
results in a logical and mathematically consistent manner. In some instances, this
task is accomplished through “constant adjustment factors” which augment
relevant equations. In other cases, anticipated changes in industrial structure or
regulatory parameters are initially simulated within the context of the Multi-
29. 25
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Regional Impact Assessment System to estimate their ultimate effects by sector.
Those findings are then factored into the simulation as constant adjustments on a
distributed temporal basis. Once this scenario is formulated, the extended system
is again balanced across regions and sectors through an iterative simulation
algorithm analogous to that described in the preceding section.
US Multi-Regional Real Estate Absorption System
The US Multi-Regional Real Estate Absorption System is a model developed by
The Perryman Group which allows such applications as (1) historical
characterization of real estate absorption by category (office, industrial, retail,
distribution, housing, etc.); (2) projections of future absorption; and (3)
measurement of the impact of specific economic activity.
The system is based on the simple notion that economic activity ultimately
determines the need for space. Industrial space is needed when production
increases; retail space is needed when purchasing expands; office space demands
depend on the number of office workers, and housing is required when
population expands. Although real estate is subject to cycles, long-term patterns
are highly correlated with business activity.
The first step in the process is to obtain the requisite information on employment
by industry. This information may be derived from historical data, forecasts, or an
impact assessment. In the present instance, it is based on a long-term baseline
simulation of the Corpus Christi MSA submodel of the US Multi-Regional
Econometric Model. This information is then simulated for the relevant area to
obtain detailed employment estimates and retail sales projections. The results are
then linked to estimates of the square footage requirements for various types of
occupations and activities obtained from various public and private sources.
These estimates are frequently updated to reflect changing patterns in space
utilization.
With regard to housing, the system links employment and projected population
growth to new housing requirements based on local patterns, as well as
allocations to single and multi-family categories.
30. 26
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Appendix B: Detailed Results
Construction
31. 27
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Impact of Construction and Related Activity Associated with
Phase One of the Proposed Development of the Old Nueces County
Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on the Economy of Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income
Job
Years*
Agriculture +$3.9 m +$1.1 m +$0.7 m +10.9
Mining +$3.7 m +$1.1 m +$0.6 m +4.1
Utilities +$10.0 m +$2.3 m +$1.0 m +3.9
Construction +$91.8 m +$38.5 m +$31.7 m +416.1
Manufacturing +$37.5 m +$11.1 m +$6.3 m +86.0
Wholesale Trade +$8.6 m +$5.8 m +$3.4 m +35.6
Retail Trade* +$40.4 m +$30.5 m +$17.8 m +503.4
Transportation & Warehousing +$7.5 m +$5.0 m +$3.3 m +42.0
Information +$4.4 m +$2.7 m +$1.2 m +9.6
Financial Activities* +$31.3 m +$7.1 m +$2.8 m +26.5
Business Services +$24.9 m +$16.0 m +$13.1 m +148.8
Health Services +$9.1 m +$6.4 m +$5.4 m +83.4
Other Services +$16.9 m +$8.6 m +$6.9 m +156.4
Total, All Industries +$290.0 m +$136.2 m +$94.0 m +1,526.6
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars. A job-year is equivalent to one person working for one
year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real
Estate. Phase One of the proposed development includes (1) needed infrastructure, (2) the renovation of the Old
Nueces County Courthouse into a boutique hotel, and (3) a parking garage to support the hotel with retail operations of
the first floor.
32. 28
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Impact of Construction and Related Activity Associated with
Subsequent Phases of the Proposed Development of the Old Nueces County
Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on the Economy of Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income
Job
Years*
Agriculture +$8.5 m +$2.4 m +$1.6 m +23.9
Mining +$7.3 m +$1.9 m +$1.1 m +7.0
Utilities +$22.1 m +$5.0 m +$2.2 m +9.1
Construction +$207.8 m +$81.5 m +$67.2 m +881.7
Manufacturing +$83.4 m +$24.7 m +$14.1 m +196.4
Wholesale Trade +$20.0 m +$13.5 m +$7.8 m +82.8
Retail Trade* +$91.9 m +$69.7 m +$40.6 m +1,145.9
Transportation & Warehousing +$16.5 m +$11.0 m +$7.3 m +92.8
Information +$9.6 m +$5.9 m +$2.5 m +21.2
Financial Activities* +$68.1 m +$15.6 m +$6.0 m +57.9
Business Services +$49.8 m +$32.0 m +$26.1 m +296.6
Health Services +$19.7 m +$13.8 m +$11.7 m +180.1
Other Services +$36.9 m +$18.6 m +$15.0 m +340.0
Total, All Industries +$641.6 m +$295.5 m +$203.1 m +3,335.3
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars. A job-year is equivalent to one person working for one
year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real
Estate. The anticipated development beyond Phase One includes (1) high-rise and mid-rise housing, (2) creative office
space, (3) retail outlets, (4) townhomes, (5) a performing arts center, and (6) associated parking facilities.
33. 29
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Impact of Construction and Related Activity Associated with All
Phases of the Proposed Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse
and the Surrounding Area on the Economy of Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income
Job
Years*
Agriculture +$12.3 m +$3.6 m +$2.4 m +34.8
Mining +$11.0 m +$3.0 m +$1.7 m +11.2
Utilities +$32.1 m +$7.2 m +$3.1 m +13.0
Construction +$299.7 m +$120.0 m +$98.9 m +1,297.8
Manufacturing +$120.9 m +$35.8 m +$20.4 m +282.4
Wholesale Trade +$28.6 m +$19.3 m +$11.1 m +118.4
Retail Trade* +$132.3 m +$100.2 m +$58.4 m +1,649.3
Transportation & Warehousing +$24.0 m +$16.0 m +$10.6 m +134.8
Information +$13.9 m +$8.6 m +$3.7 m +30.8
Financial Activities* +$99.4 m +$22.7 m +$8.8 m +84.3
Business Services +$74.7 m +$48.0 m +$39.2 m +445.4
Health Services +$28.9 m +$20.2 m +$17.1 m +263.5
Other Services +$53.8 m +$27.2 m +$21.9 m +496.3
Total, All Industries +$931.6 m +$431.7 m +$297.1 m +4,861.9
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars. A job-year is equivalent to one person working for one
year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real
Estate.
34. 30
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Operations and Incremental Tourism: Phase One
35. 31
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Annual Impact (at Maturity) of Operations and Related Activity
Associated with Phase One of the Proposed Development of the Old Nueces
County Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on the Economy of Nueces
County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$0.8 m +$0.2 m +$0.1 m +2
Mining +$0.4 m +$0.1 m +$0.1 m +0
Utilities +$1.8 m +$0.4 m +$0.2 m +1
Construction +$0.9 m +$0.5 m +$0.4 m +5
Manufacturing +$4.0 m +$1.0 m +$0.6 m +7
Wholesale Trade +$0.9 m +$0.6 m +$0.4 m +4
Retail Trade* +$14.3 m +$10.9 m +$6.4 m +178
Transportation & Warehousing +$0.9 m +$0.6 m +$0.4 m +5
Information +$0.8 m +$0.5 m +$0.2 m +2
Financial Activities* +$5.1 m +$1.3 m +$0.4 m +4
Business Services +$1.4 m +$0.9 m +$0.7 m +8
Health Services +$1.3 m +$0.9 m +$0.8 m +12
Other Services +$8.5 m +$4.5 m +$3.2 m +72
Total, All Industries +$41.2 m +$22.5 m +$13.8 m +300
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate. Phase One operations include the Old Nueces
County Courthouse boutique hotel (including food and beverage facilities) and retail outlets.
36. 32
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Annual Impact (at Maturity) of the Incremental Tourism
Associated with Phase One of the Proposed Development of the Old Nueces
County Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on the Economy of Nueces
County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$1.0 m +$0.3 m +$0.2 m +2
Mining +$0.4 m +$0.1 m +$0.1 m +0
Utilities +$1.7 m +$0.4 m +$0.2 m +1
Construction +$0.9 m +$0.5 m +$0.4 m +5
Manufacturing +$4.7 m +$1.2 m +$0.6 m +9
Wholesale Trade +$1.1 m +$0.7 m +$0.4 m +5
Retail Trade* +$15.6 m +$11.4 m +$6.6 m +196
Transportation & Warehousing +$3.5 m +$2.5 m +$1.7 m +21
Information +$0.7 m +$0.4 m +$0.2 m +2
Financial Activities* +$5.0 m +$1.2 m +$0.4 m +4
Business Services +$1.3 m +$0.8 m +$0.7 m +7
Health Services +$1.3 m +$0.9 m +$0.8 m +12
Other Services +$4.6 m +$2.5 m +$1.8 m +41
Total, All Industries +$41.7 m +$22.9 m +$14.0 m +305
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate.
37. 33
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Total Annual Impact (at Maturity) of Operations and Tourism
Activity Associated with Phase One of the Proposed Development of the Old
Nueces County Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on the Economy of
Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$1.7 m +$0.5 m +$0.3 m +4
Mining +$0.9 m +$0.2 m +$0.1 m +0
Utilities +$3.4 m +$0.8 m +$0.3 m +1
Construction +$1.8 m +$1.0 m +$0.8 m +10
Manufacturing +$8.7 m +$2.2 m +$1.2 m +15
Wholesale Trade +$2.0 m +$1.4 m +$0.8 m +8
Retail Trade* +$29.9 m +$22.4 m +$13.0 m +374
Transportation & Warehousing +$4.4 m +$3.1 m +$2.1 m +26
Information +$1.5 m +$0.9 m +$0.4 m +3
Financial Activities* +$10.1 m +$2.5 m +$0.9 m +8
Business Services +$2.7 m +$1.7 m +$1.4 m +16
Health Services +$2.6 m +$1.8 m +$1.6 m +24
Other Services +$13.1 m +$7.0 m +$5.0 m +113
Total, All Industries +$82.9 m +$45.4 m +$27.8 m +605
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate. Phase One operations include the Old Nueces
County Courthouse boutique hotel (including food and beverage facilities) and retail outlets.
38. 34
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Operations and Incremental Tourism: Subsequent Phases
39. 35
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Annual Impact (at Maturity) of Operations and Related Activity
Associated with All Subsequent Phases of the Proposed Development of the
Old Nueces County Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on the Economy of
Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$2.4 m +$0.7 m +$0.4 m +6
Mining +$1.5 m +$0.3 m +$0.2 m +1
Utilities +$6.5 m +$1.5 m +$0.6 m +2
Construction +$3.0 m +$1.6 m +$1.3 m +17
Manufacturing +$15.1 m +$3.9 m +$2.1 m +27
Wholesale Trade +$3.6 m +$2.4 m +$1.4 m +15
Retail Trade* +$37.7 m +$29.3 m +$17.2 m +466
Transportation & Warehousing +$3.6 m +$2.5 m +$1.6 m +21
Information +$3.2 m +$2.0 m +$0.8 m +7
Financial Activities* +$20.9 m +$5.1 m +$1.8 m +17
Business Services +$50.5 m +$29.9 m +$24.4 m +277
Health Services +$5.6 m +$3.9 m +$3.3 m +51
Other Services +$12.4 m +$6.3 m +$4.9 m +111
Total, All Industries +$165.8 m +$89.2 m +$60.2 m +1,018
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate. Subsequent operations include the creative office
space, additional retail outlets, and the performing arts center.
40. 36
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Annual Impact (at Maturity) of the Incremental Tourism
Associated with All Subsequent Phases of the Proposed Development of the
Old Nueces County Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on the Economy of
Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$0.3 m +$0.1 m +$0.0 m +1
Mining +$0.1 m +$0.0 m +$0.0 m +0
Utilities +$0.4 m +$0.1 m +$0.0 m +0
Construction +$0.2 m +$0.1 m +$0.1 m +1
Manufacturing +$1.2 m +$0.3 m +$0.2 m +2
Wholesale Trade +$0.3 m +$0.2 m +$0.1 m +1
Retail Trade* +$4.1 m +$3.0 m +$1.7 m +51
Transportation & Warehousing +$0.9 m +$0.7 m +$0.4 m +6
Information +$0.2 m +$0.1 m +$0.0 m +0
Financial Activities* +$1.3 m +$0.3 m +$0.1 m +1
Business Services +$0.3 m +$0.2 m +$0.2 m +2
Health Services +$0.3 m +$0.2 m +$0.2 m +3
Other Services +$1.2 m +$0.7 m +$0.5 m +11
Total, All Industries +$11.0 m +$6.0 m +$3.7 m +80
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate.
41. 37
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Total Annual Impact (at Maturity) of Operations and Tourism
Activity Associated with All Subsequent Phases of the Proposed Development
of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and the Surrounding Area on the
Economy of Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$2.7 m +$0.7 m +$0.5 m +7
Mining +$1.6 m +$0.4 m +$0.2 m +1
Utilities +$6.9 m +$1.6 m +$0.7 m +3
Construction +$3.2 m +$1.7 m +$1.4 m +18
Manufacturing +$16.3 m +$4.2 m +$2.3 m +29
Wholesale Trade +$3.9 m +$2.6 m +$1.5 m +16
Retail Trade* +$41.8 m +$32.3 m +$18.9 m +518
Transportation & Warehousing +$4.5 m +$3.1 m +$2.1 m +26
Information +$3.4 m +$2.1 m +$0.9 m +7
Financial Activities* +$22.2 m +$5.4 m +$2.0 m +18
Business Services +$50.9 m +$30.1 m +$24.5 m +279
Health Services +$5.9 m +$4.1 m +$3.5 m +54
Other Services +$13.6 m +$6.9 m +$5.4 m +122
Total, All Industries +$176.8 m +$95.2 m +$63.9 m +1,098
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate. Subsequent operations include the creative office
space, additional retail outlets, and the performing arts center.
42. 38
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
Operations and Incremental Tourism: Total Phase One and
Subsequent Phases
43. 39
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Total Annual Impact (at Maturity) of Operations and Related
Activity Associated with Phase One and All Subsequent Phases of the
Proposed Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and the
Surrounding Area on the Economy of Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$3.2 m +$0.9 m +$0.6 m +8
Mining +$1.9 m +$0.4 m +$0.3 m +1
Utilities +$8.2 m +$1.9 m +$0.8 m +3
Construction +$3.9 m +$2.1 m +$1.7 m +22
Manufacturing +$19.1 m +$4.9 m +$2.7 m +34
Wholesale Trade +$4.5 m +$3.0 m +$1.8 m +19
Retail Trade* +$52.0 m +$40.2 m +$23.6 m +645
Transportation & Warehousing +$4.5 m +$3.1 m +$2.0 m +26
Information +$4.0 m +$2.4 m +$1.0 m +8
Financial Activities* +$26.0 m +$6.4 m +$2.3 m +21
Business Services +$51.9 m +$30.7 m +$25.1 m +285
Health Services +$6.9 m +$4.8 m +$4.1 m +63
Other Services +$20.8 m +$10.8 m +$8.1 m +183
Total, All Industries +$207.0 m +$111.7 m +$74.0 m +1,317
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate.
44. 40
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Annual Impact (at Maturity) of the Incremental Tourism
Associated with Phase One and All Subsequent Phases of the Proposed
Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and the Surrounding Area
on the Economy of Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$1.2 m +$0.3 m +$0.2 m +3
Mining +$0.6 m +$0.1 m +$0.1 m +0
Utilities +$2.1 m +$0.5 m +$0.2 m +1
Construction +$1.1 m +$0.6 m +$0.5 m +6
Manufacturing +$5.9 m +$1.5 m +$0.8 m +11
Wholesale Trade +$1.4 m +$0.9 m +$0.5 m +6
Retail Trade* +$19.7 m +$14.4 m +$8.3 m +247
Transportation & Warehousing +$4.4 m +$3.2 m +$2.1 m +27
Information +$0.9 m +$0.5 m +$0.2 m +2
Financial Activities* +$6.3 m +$1.5 m +$0.6 m +5
Business Services +$1.6 m +$1.0 m +$0.8 m +9
Health Services +$1.7 m +$1.2 m +$1.0 m +15
Other Services +$5.9 m +$3.2 m +$2.3 m +52
Total, All Industries +$52.7 m +$28.9 m +$17.6 m +385
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate.
45. 41
The Potential Impact of Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and Related Areas on the Nueces County Economy
The Potential Total Annual Impact (at Maturity) of Operations and Related
Activity and Tourism Associated with Phase One and All Subsequent Phases of
the Proposed Development of the Old Nueces County Courthouse and the
Surrounding Area on the Economy of Nueces County
Results by Industry
Industry
Total
Expenditures
Gross
Product
Personal
Income Jobs
Agriculture +$4.4 m +$1.2 m +$0.8 m +11
Mining +$2.5 m +$0.6 m +$0.3 m +1
Utilities +$10.3 m +$2.4 m +$1.0 m +4
Construction +$5.0 m +$2.7 m +$2.2 m +29
Manufacturing +$25.0 m +$6.4 m +$3.5 m +45
Wholesale Trade +$5.9 m +$4.0 m +$2.3 m +24
Retail Trade* +$71.7 m +$54.7 m +$31.9 m +892
Transportation & Warehousing +$8.9 m +$6.2 m +$4.1 m +52
Information +$4.8 m +$3.0 m +$1.3 m +10
Financial Activities* +$32.3 m +$7.9 m +$2.9 m +26
Business Services +$53.6 m +$31.8 m +$25.9 m +294
Health Services +$8.5 m +$6.0 m +$5.1 m +78
Other Services +$26.7 m +$14.0 m +$10.4 m +235
Total, All Industries +$259.7 m +$140.6 m +$91.7 m +1,703
Source: US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System, The Perryman Group
Notes: Monetary values given in millions of 2020 US dollars per year. Components may not sum due to rounding. Retail
Trade includes Restaurants, Financial Activities includes Real Estate.