Raymond Torto presented on the global economic outlook and real estate market. He discussed how the global economy is still vulnerable due to high debt levels and will see sub-normal growth for the next few years. In the U.S., real GDP has recovered to pre-recession levels but per capita GDP has not. Commercial real estate transaction volumes and prices are rising again but risks remain like the upcoming "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. and political paralysis hindering decisive policy action.
Overview of the services offered by Landstar along with information on the Landstar system. Celebrating 25 years of Excellence in transportation and supply chain solutions!
The document shows that California K-12 education funding from the state general fund decreased by $7.8 billion between 2007-08 and 2010-11. A local school district also saw its state funding per student cut by $1,014 since 2007-08, contributing to an anticipated $2.3 million deficit for the next year. Various scenarios are presented showing how different levels of funding from a local foundation could help close the gap and prevent cuts to teachers and increases in class sizes.
This document contains:
1) Forward-looking statements about Sallie Mae's beliefs, expectations, and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
2) Information on Sallie Mae's strong business fundamentals, competitive franchise, assured FFELP profitability through 2010, adequate liquidity, expanding funding sources, and performing private loan portfolios.
3) Details on Sallie Mae's FFELP and private loan originations, funding including new government support programs, and liquidity positions.
California cut K-12 education funding by $7.8 billion from 2007-08 to 2010-11, reducing per-student funding from $5,795 to $4,781. The Lake Crest Union School District saw its revenue decline by $4 million from 2011-12 to 2012-13 due to lower state funding, falling federal stimulus money, and reduced local revenues. The district projected a $2.3 million deficit for 2012-13 that would require staff cuts and increased class sizes unless it received a large gift from its educational foundation.
1) The annual shareholder meeting presentation discusses Terex Corporation's financial goals for 2010, including achieving $12 billion in sales with a 12% operating margin and 15% working capital to sales ratio.
2) It provides an overview of Terex's business segments and their market positions, with approximately 75% of sales generated in markets where Terex has a leading position.
3) The presentation highlights Terex's sales and backlog figures by business segment for the last twelve months through March 2008, with aerial work platforms sales up 9% and cranes sales up 26% compared to the prior year.
This document contains the presentation from Tim Ford, President of Terex Aerial Work Platforms, at the JPMorgan Basics & Industrials Conference on June 4, 2008. Ford discusses the strong sales growth and global expansion of Terex AWP over the past decade. He outlines the secular growth drivers for the aerial work platform industry and Terex AWP's strategies to further strengthen and globalize its business, maximize revenue and profit from its large installed base, and extend its product offerings beyond aerials. Ford also highlights opportunities to apply lean principles more broadly across the value chain and customer relationships.
Google Q4 2012 Quarterly Earnings SummaryKit Seeborg
The document summarizes Google's financial results for Q4 2012. It reports that Google's consolidated revenues grew 36% year-over-year and 8% quarter-over-quarter to $14.4 billion. It also discusses strong revenue growth and cash flow. The document provides details on revenue sources and breakdowns between US vs international revenues. It includes charts showing revenue trends over time and costs like traffic acquisition costs.
The document discusses Metropolitan Business Planning (MBP) as a new approach for transforming regional economies. MBP applies private sector business planning disciplines to regional economic development. It involves analyzing a region's economic performance and market position, developing a shared vision and strategies, specifying products/services to implement strategies, creating operational and financial plans, and monitoring performance. Several metropolitan regions are adopting MBP approaches, working across sectors to coordinate economic development.
Overview of the services offered by Landstar along with information on the Landstar system. Celebrating 25 years of Excellence in transportation and supply chain solutions!
The document shows that California K-12 education funding from the state general fund decreased by $7.8 billion between 2007-08 and 2010-11. A local school district also saw its state funding per student cut by $1,014 since 2007-08, contributing to an anticipated $2.3 million deficit for the next year. Various scenarios are presented showing how different levels of funding from a local foundation could help close the gap and prevent cuts to teachers and increases in class sizes.
This document contains:
1) Forward-looking statements about Sallie Mae's beliefs, expectations, and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
2) Information on Sallie Mae's strong business fundamentals, competitive franchise, assured FFELP profitability through 2010, adequate liquidity, expanding funding sources, and performing private loan portfolios.
3) Details on Sallie Mae's FFELP and private loan originations, funding including new government support programs, and liquidity positions.
California cut K-12 education funding by $7.8 billion from 2007-08 to 2010-11, reducing per-student funding from $5,795 to $4,781. The Lake Crest Union School District saw its revenue decline by $4 million from 2011-12 to 2012-13 due to lower state funding, falling federal stimulus money, and reduced local revenues. The district projected a $2.3 million deficit for 2012-13 that would require staff cuts and increased class sizes unless it received a large gift from its educational foundation.
1) The annual shareholder meeting presentation discusses Terex Corporation's financial goals for 2010, including achieving $12 billion in sales with a 12% operating margin and 15% working capital to sales ratio.
2) It provides an overview of Terex's business segments and their market positions, with approximately 75% of sales generated in markets where Terex has a leading position.
3) The presentation highlights Terex's sales and backlog figures by business segment for the last twelve months through March 2008, with aerial work platforms sales up 9% and cranes sales up 26% compared to the prior year.
This document contains the presentation from Tim Ford, President of Terex Aerial Work Platforms, at the JPMorgan Basics & Industrials Conference on June 4, 2008. Ford discusses the strong sales growth and global expansion of Terex AWP over the past decade. He outlines the secular growth drivers for the aerial work platform industry and Terex AWP's strategies to further strengthen and globalize its business, maximize revenue and profit from its large installed base, and extend its product offerings beyond aerials. Ford also highlights opportunities to apply lean principles more broadly across the value chain and customer relationships.
Google Q4 2012 Quarterly Earnings SummaryKit Seeborg
The document summarizes Google's financial results for Q4 2012. It reports that Google's consolidated revenues grew 36% year-over-year and 8% quarter-over-quarter to $14.4 billion. It also discusses strong revenue growth and cash flow. The document provides details on revenue sources and breakdowns between US vs international revenues. It includes charts showing revenue trends over time and costs like traffic acquisition costs.
The document discusses Metropolitan Business Planning (MBP) as a new approach for transforming regional economies. MBP applies private sector business planning disciplines to regional economic development. It involves analyzing a region's economic performance and market position, developing a shared vision and strategies, specifying products/services to implement strategies, creating operational and financial plans, and monitoring performance. Several metropolitan regions are adopting MBP approaches, working across sectors to coordinate economic development.
Catching the Wave: How to Build a Land Pipeline in a Choppy Market (Thomas Re...Virtual ULI
This document summarizes a panel discussion on land development opportunities in a challenging housing market. The panelists represented major land developers, homebuilders, and institutional investors. They discussed how land values rose rapidly during the housing boom but have corrected significantly. Transaction volume and average deal sizes rebounded in recent years but saw a lull in the first half of 2011. The bifurcation of land values has occurred based on location desirability. Supply characteristics vary across major markets in the Inland Empire region of Southern California. Regional flight to quality has led to higher deal sizes in Southern and Northern California despite lower transaction volume.
The document discusses the results of a study on the effects of a new drug on memory and cognitive function in older adults. The double-blind study involved 100 participants aged 65-80 who were given either the drug or a placebo daily for 6 months. Researchers found that those who received the drug performed significantly better on memory and problem-solving tests at the end of the study compared to those who received the placebo.
The document discusses healthcare in the United States. It covers several topics related to US healthcare, including what makes the US system different compared to other developed countries, what health insurance looks like in the US, costs associated with diabetes, and who pays for healthcare. The US system is unique in that it does not have universal healthcare coverage and relies more heavily on private insurance compared to other countries which have nationalized systems. Healthcare costs, especially for conditions like diabetes, place a large financial burden on individuals and the system.
Please visit our online professional network and join our community of Automotive Social Media Marketing professionals at http://www.ADPsocialMarketing.com
The document contains several charts and tables presenting data on various topics:
- A student survey on first crushes and ages
- A chart showing higher education leads to higher earnings
- A pie chart on grain sales by segment for a company
- A table listing the most populated cities in the world
- Tables with operating expenses of the American Red Cross over time
- A production and scrap report from Coronado Foundries with data by factory
1) Terex is the 3rd largest manufacturer of construction equipment in the world, with sales of $10.1 billion over the last 12 months.
2) Terex aims to achieve $12 billion in sales and 12% operating margin by 2010, describing this goal as "12 by 12 in '10".
3) Terex has opportunities to improve margins through better pricing, supply chain management, and productivity initiatives. Reducing working capital, especially inventory, could free up hundreds of millions of dollars.
The document summarizes questions and data from the Green Pearl Chicago Distressed Real Estate Summit in May 2010. It includes questions about justified value increases in the real estate market, opportunities to purchase distressed assets from lenders, the impact of maturing commercial mortgage backed securities, and the outlook for apartment and multifamily development. Charts show a rebound in apartment transaction volumes and significant maturities of multifamily loans from institutional lenders between 2010 to 2017. The presentation examines whether government agencies can replace reduced lending from other investor groups.
Carlyle Financial crisis- Super Return 2008 10 15gueste519a
The document discusses the financial crisis that began in 2007 and its causes and effects. It identifies excesses in the US housing and mortgage markets, including risky subprime lending, as root causes. Mortgages were then packaged into complex financial products and widely distributed, while leverage levels throughout the financial system rose to unprecedented heights. When housing prices declined and default rates rose, trillions in losses were revealed, precipitating a global credit crunch and economic slowdown.
Norfolk Southern Corporation's 2008 Annual Report summarizes the company's strong financial performance in 2008. Some key highlights include record operating revenues and income, an improved operating ratio of 71.1%, and continued growth in net income and earnings per share. The report also discusses Norfolk Southern's focus on safety, service quality, growing its business, supporting communities, and investing in infrastructure and technology to position the company for long-term success.
Northern Virginia Fairfax County Housing MarketBetty Plashal
In December 2010:
- Total housing units sold in Fairfax County increased 9% compared to the previous month but decreased 2% compared to December 2009.
- Active housing inventory decreased 16% from December 2009 and 19% from the previous month.
- The median home sale price rose 8% compared to December 2009 to $390,000, and increased 4% from the previous month.
This document provides an overview of construction industry trends in California and the United States from 2000-2012. It shows that total construction activity follows a cyclical pattern, with downturns occurring roughly every 10 years. The most recent downturn was from 2008-2010 due to the housing crash and economic recession. Key factors currently inhibiting growth are the intractable housing market, large budget deficits, high unemployment, and economic issues in Europe. While some sectors like multifamily and healthcare are improving, public funding for projects is decreasing which is pushing down on overall construction activity. The document analyzes construction trends by sector and state, finding a mixed recovery with some areas like Dallas and Seattle multifamily growing significantly while other regions like New York remain
Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012heri
This document analyzes data on Canada's venture capital industry and identifies several challenges it faces:
1) Venture capital investment as a percentage of GDP has steadily decreased in Canada since 2000, while it remains over double the rate in the US.
2) Domestic venture capital fund activity in Canada has remained flat in recent years, while foreign funds have increased their share of investments.
3) Weak fundraising has contributed to flat or declining levels of activity from Canadian venture capital funds, reducing support for high-growth technology companies.
This document appears to be the agenda for a budget town hall meeting at Florida International University on April 12, 2010. The agenda includes discussing FY10-11 budget expectations, providing a research update, highlighting new partnerships, and recognizing student achievements. It provides background on declining state funding for universities over the last decade and outlines FIU's budget plan for FY10-11, which anticipates cuts but also new sources of revenue from tuition increases and state stimulus funds. The document discusses recent research awards and grants received by FIU faculty and notes some new partnerships, including an agreement signed with Qingdao City Construction Investment Corp in China.
Saint Lucia is a Caribbean island country with a population of 172,000 people within an area of 619 square km. Its GDP grew between 2000-2010, though it declined in 2009. The current account balance was negative throughout this period due to imports exceeding exports. Exports include edible fruits and beverages, while imports are mostly mineral fuels and vehicles. The main trade partners are the United Kingdom, United States, Trinidad and Tobago, and Barbados. Travel is the top service export, while transportation leads imports.
This document summarizes presentations made to the Kansas Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board on September 3, 2008. It includes details on Pinnacle Entertainment's proposal for a $650 million casino resort in Kansas, including their plans to fund the project through existing cash, credit facilities, and future cash flows. It also reviews Pinnacle's financial performance and leverage, experience operating casinos, and alternatives for financing their current development pipeline.
The document is a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) summarizing internet advertising revenue in the United States for 2008. Some key findings from the report include:
- Total internet advertising revenues in the US for 2008 were $23.4 billion, a 10.6% increase from 2007.
- Search advertising accounted for 46% of fourth quarter 2008 revenues, up from 42% in 2007. Display banners were second at 21%.
- Quarterly revenues increased 4.5% from the third quarter of 2008 to $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter, and increased 2.6% from the fourth quarter of 2007.
- It
Internet advertising revenues in the United States totaled $22.7 billion for the full year of 2009, with Q3 2009 accounting for approximately $5.5 billion and Q4 2009 totaling approximately $6.3 billion. Internet advertising revenues for the full year of 2009 decreased 3.4 percent over 2008.
The document summarizes an industry report on internet advertising revenue from 2009. It finds that total internet advertising revenue in 2009 was $22.7 billion, a 3.4% decrease from 2008. Search advertising accounted for 47% of revenue and display advertising such as banners and video grew to 35% of revenue. The fourth quarter of 2009 set a new record with $6.3 billion in revenue, a 2.6% increase from the same period in 2008. The top 10 internet advertising companies continued to account for the majority (71%) of total revenue.
Peru offers attractive investment opportunities due to its strong economic growth, natural resources, and favorable climate for investment. The country has experienced GDP growth of nearly 10% annually in recent years and exports have tripled over 5 years. Peru also provides a stable macroeconomic environment with low inflation and a stable currency. The legal framework guarantees basic investor protections and tax stability. These factors make Peru a top destination for foreign direct investment in Latin America.
IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Reporttony anderson
IAB Internet Advertising
Revenue Report Social Media Metrics Definitions
Tony Anderson, Online Media Sales
Gen-Y Media Inc.
www.genymediainc.com tony@genymediainc.com
Online Ad Sales
Ad Serving, DoubleClick, DART DFP, adapt
The document is a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) summarizing internet advertising revenue in the United States for 2008. Some key points:
- Total internet advertising revenues in 2008 were $23.4 billion, a 10.6% increase from 2007.
- The fourth quarter of 2008 saw $6.1 billion in revenues, a 4.5% increase from the previous quarter and a 2.6% increase from the same quarter in 2007.
- Search advertising accounted for 46% of fourth quarter 2008 revenues, followed by display banners at 21% and classifieds at 13%.
Catching the Wave: How to Build a Land Pipeline in a Choppy Market (Thomas Re...Virtual ULI
This document summarizes a panel discussion on land development opportunities in a challenging housing market. The panelists represented major land developers, homebuilders, and institutional investors. They discussed how land values rose rapidly during the housing boom but have corrected significantly. Transaction volume and average deal sizes rebounded in recent years but saw a lull in the first half of 2011. The bifurcation of land values has occurred based on location desirability. Supply characteristics vary across major markets in the Inland Empire region of Southern California. Regional flight to quality has led to higher deal sizes in Southern and Northern California despite lower transaction volume.
The document discusses the results of a study on the effects of a new drug on memory and cognitive function in older adults. The double-blind study involved 100 participants aged 65-80 who were given either the drug or a placebo daily for 6 months. Researchers found that those who received the drug performed significantly better on memory and problem-solving tests at the end of the study compared to those who received the placebo.
The document discusses healthcare in the United States. It covers several topics related to US healthcare, including what makes the US system different compared to other developed countries, what health insurance looks like in the US, costs associated with diabetes, and who pays for healthcare. The US system is unique in that it does not have universal healthcare coverage and relies more heavily on private insurance compared to other countries which have nationalized systems. Healthcare costs, especially for conditions like diabetes, place a large financial burden on individuals and the system.
Please visit our online professional network and join our community of Automotive Social Media Marketing professionals at http://www.ADPsocialMarketing.com
The document contains several charts and tables presenting data on various topics:
- A student survey on first crushes and ages
- A chart showing higher education leads to higher earnings
- A pie chart on grain sales by segment for a company
- A table listing the most populated cities in the world
- Tables with operating expenses of the American Red Cross over time
- A production and scrap report from Coronado Foundries with data by factory
1) Terex is the 3rd largest manufacturer of construction equipment in the world, with sales of $10.1 billion over the last 12 months.
2) Terex aims to achieve $12 billion in sales and 12% operating margin by 2010, describing this goal as "12 by 12 in '10".
3) Terex has opportunities to improve margins through better pricing, supply chain management, and productivity initiatives. Reducing working capital, especially inventory, could free up hundreds of millions of dollars.
The document summarizes questions and data from the Green Pearl Chicago Distressed Real Estate Summit in May 2010. It includes questions about justified value increases in the real estate market, opportunities to purchase distressed assets from lenders, the impact of maturing commercial mortgage backed securities, and the outlook for apartment and multifamily development. Charts show a rebound in apartment transaction volumes and significant maturities of multifamily loans from institutional lenders between 2010 to 2017. The presentation examines whether government agencies can replace reduced lending from other investor groups.
Carlyle Financial crisis- Super Return 2008 10 15gueste519a
The document discusses the financial crisis that began in 2007 and its causes and effects. It identifies excesses in the US housing and mortgage markets, including risky subprime lending, as root causes. Mortgages were then packaged into complex financial products and widely distributed, while leverage levels throughout the financial system rose to unprecedented heights. When housing prices declined and default rates rose, trillions in losses were revealed, precipitating a global credit crunch and economic slowdown.
Norfolk Southern Corporation's 2008 Annual Report summarizes the company's strong financial performance in 2008. Some key highlights include record operating revenues and income, an improved operating ratio of 71.1%, and continued growth in net income and earnings per share. The report also discusses Norfolk Southern's focus on safety, service quality, growing its business, supporting communities, and investing in infrastructure and technology to position the company for long-term success.
Northern Virginia Fairfax County Housing MarketBetty Plashal
In December 2010:
- Total housing units sold in Fairfax County increased 9% compared to the previous month but decreased 2% compared to December 2009.
- Active housing inventory decreased 16% from December 2009 and 19% from the previous month.
- The median home sale price rose 8% compared to December 2009 to $390,000, and increased 4% from the previous month.
This document provides an overview of construction industry trends in California and the United States from 2000-2012. It shows that total construction activity follows a cyclical pattern, with downturns occurring roughly every 10 years. The most recent downturn was from 2008-2010 due to the housing crash and economic recession. Key factors currently inhibiting growth are the intractable housing market, large budget deficits, high unemployment, and economic issues in Europe. While some sectors like multifamily and healthcare are improving, public funding for projects is decreasing which is pushing down on overall construction activity. The document analyzes construction trends by sector and state, finding a mixed recovery with some areas like Dallas and Seattle multifamily growing significantly while other regions like New York remain
Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012heri
This document analyzes data on Canada's venture capital industry and identifies several challenges it faces:
1) Venture capital investment as a percentage of GDP has steadily decreased in Canada since 2000, while it remains over double the rate in the US.
2) Domestic venture capital fund activity in Canada has remained flat in recent years, while foreign funds have increased their share of investments.
3) Weak fundraising has contributed to flat or declining levels of activity from Canadian venture capital funds, reducing support for high-growth technology companies.
This document appears to be the agenda for a budget town hall meeting at Florida International University on April 12, 2010. The agenda includes discussing FY10-11 budget expectations, providing a research update, highlighting new partnerships, and recognizing student achievements. It provides background on declining state funding for universities over the last decade and outlines FIU's budget plan for FY10-11, which anticipates cuts but also new sources of revenue from tuition increases and state stimulus funds. The document discusses recent research awards and grants received by FIU faculty and notes some new partnerships, including an agreement signed with Qingdao City Construction Investment Corp in China.
Saint Lucia is a Caribbean island country with a population of 172,000 people within an area of 619 square km. Its GDP grew between 2000-2010, though it declined in 2009. The current account balance was negative throughout this period due to imports exceeding exports. Exports include edible fruits and beverages, while imports are mostly mineral fuels and vehicles. The main trade partners are the United Kingdom, United States, Trinidad and Tobago, and Barbados. Travel is the top service export, while transportation leads imports.
This document summarizes presentations made to the Kansas Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board on September 3, 2008. It includes details on Pinnacle Entertainment's proposal for a $650 million casino resort in Kansas, including their plans to fund the project through existing cash, credit facilities, and future cash flows. It also reviews Pinnacle's financial performance and leverage, experience operating casinos, and alternatives for financing their current development pipeline.
The document is a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) summarizing internet advertising revenue in the United States for 2008. Some key findings from the report include:
- Total internet advertising revenues in the US for 2008 were $23.4 billion, a 10.6% increase from 2007.
- Search advertising accounted for 46% of fourth quarter 2008 revenues, up from 42% in 2007. Display banners were second at 21%.
- Quarterly revenues increased 4.5% from the third quarter of 2008 to $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter, and increased 2.6% from the fourth quarter of 2007.
- It
Internet advertising revenues in the United States totaled $22.7 billion for the full year of 2009, with Q3 2009 accounting for approximately $5.5 billion and Q4 2009 totaling approximately $6.3 billion. Internet advertising revenues for the full year of 2009 decreased 3.4 percent over 2008.
The document summarizes an industry report on internet advertising revenue from 2009. It finds that total internet advertising revenue in 2009 was $22.7 billion, a 3.4% decrease from 2008. Search advertising accounted for 47% of revenue and display advertising such as banners and video grew to 35% of revenue. The fourth quarter of 2009 set a new record with $6.3 billion in revenue, a 2.6% increase from the same period in 2008. The top 10 internet advertising companies continued to account for the majority (71%) of total revenue.
Peru offers attractive investment opportunities due to its strong economic growth, natural resources, and favorable climate for investment. The country has experienced GDP growth of nearly 10% annually in recent years and exports have tripled over 5 years. Peru also provides a stable macroeconomic environment with low inflation and a stable currency. The legal framework guarantees basic investor protections and tax stability. These factors make Peru a top destination for foreign direct investment in Latin America.
IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Reporttony anderson
IAB Internet Advertising
Revenue Report Social Media Metrics Definitions
Tony Anderson, Online Media Sales
Gen-Y Media Inc.
www.genymediainc.com tony@genymediainc.com
Online Ad Sales
Ad Serving, DoubleClick, DART DFP, adapt
The document is a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) summarizing internet advertising revenue in the United States for 2008. Some key points:
- Total internet advertising revenues in 2008 were $23.4 billion, a 10.6% increase from 2007.
- The fourth quarter of 2008 saw $6.1 billion in revenues, a 4.5% increase from the previous quarter and a 2.6% increase from the same quarter in 2007.
- Search advertising accounted for 46% of fourth quarter 2008 revenues, followed by display banners at 21% and classifieds at 13%.
Global business management - Topic 1: Global economy and international businessGrenville Lannon
1. The document discusses key concepts related to the global economy and international business, including globalization, economic indicators such as GDP and population trends, and unemployment.
2. GDP per capita, population growth rates and shifts, and unemployment rates can provide important insights for understanding business conditions and opportunities in different markets.
3. The scale and nature of international business is defined, and factors like the role of governments and trade organizations that influence international business are introduced.
This document summarizes internet advertising revenue results for the first two quarters of 2007. It finds that total revenue for the first half of 2007 was nearly $10 billion, a 26.4% increase from the same period in 2006. Revenue in Q2 2007 reached over $5 billion, marking 25.4% growth compared to Q2 2006. Consumer advertising continues to be the largest spending sector, accounting for 54% of Q2 2007 revenues. Search advertising remains the leading format at 40% of revenues, though display and lead generation are gaining.
The document summarizes the performance of Global Banking and Markets in the first half of 2008. Key points include:
- Global Banking and Markets contributed 26% of the group's pre-tax profits despite challenging market conditions.
- Strength in emerging markets like Asia Pacific and Latin America helped offset losses elsewhere.
- Writedowns were taken on subprime, credit, and leveraged loan exposures totaling $3.9 billion.
- Two of the group's structured investment vehicles, Cullinan and Asscher, had their assets transferred or sold into three securities investment conduits to provide more stable funding.
Today the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) released the IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report for the first half of 2009. U.S. Internet advertising revenues were at $10.9 billion in that period, a 5.3% decline from the same period in 2008.
The document provides an overview of Sallie Mae's business fundamentals and financial outlook. It discusses that Sallie Mae has:
1) Strong fundamentals in student lending, competitive scale, and assured FFELP profits through 2010.
2) Adequate liquidity to meet debt obligations and unlimited funding for new FFELP loans through 2009/2010.
3) Expanding deposit funding and $20 billion in expected FFELP originations for 2008/2009.
4) Private loan originations increased despite economic challenges, with improving credit quality in recent vintages.
This document is a guide to the markets published by JPMorgan that provides data and analysis across various asset classes including equities, fixed income, international markets, and the economy. It includes sections on returns by investment style and sector for equities, economic indicators and drivers, interest rates and other data for fixed income, international market returns and valuations, and asset class performance and correlations. The guide contains over 60 charts and analyses global and domestic financial trends and investment opportunities.
This document is a guide to the markets published by JPMorgan that provides data and analysis across various asset classes including equities, fixed income, international markets, and the economy. It includes sections on returns by investment style and sector for equities, economic indicators and drivers, interest rates and yields for fixed income, growth and valuation metrics for international markets, and historical returns for various asset classes. The guide contains over 60 charts and analyses to inform readers about the current state of the financial markets.
- Google reported strong revenue growth of 35% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter for Q2 2012, with consolidated revenues of $12.2 billion.
- Google business revenues grew 21% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter to $11 billion, while Motorola revenues were $1.3 billion following its acquisition in May 2012.
- International revenues grew and accounted for 47% of total revenues at $6.5 billion.
2012 was a great time to be in the real estate industry based on the following:
1. Home sales were forecasted to increase after declining between 2007-2010 during the housing crisis.
2. Coldwell Banker was the #1 real estate brand in the US based on closed sales volume and had over 3,100 offices worldwide.
3. Coldwell Banker offered its agents opportunities to learn from industry experts at annual conferences, access advanced technology and marketing support to serve customers.
Building the Agile Enterprise: A New Model for HRJosh Bersin
Josh Bersin's IMPACT 2012 Keynote Speech ... "The Agile Enterprise" - how HR must rapidly evolve through changes in strategy, learning, leadership, and technology to adapt to today's agile management model. Detailed notes available from Bersin & Associates.
1) The document discusses Bank of America's enterprise risk management strategies and capabilities. It highlights how the bank manages various types of risk, including credit, market, and operational risk across its consumer and commercial businesses.
2) Key strengths that help the bank manage risk include its breadth of client access, industry insights, and integrated risk management structure.
3) The bank has improved its risk profile by rebalancing its commercial credit portfolio and enhancing risk monitoring tools.
Similar to Pdf version for flash drive torto_utah -august 14v1 (20)
Recent Trends Fueling The Surge in Farmhouse Demand in IndiaFarmland Bazaar
Embarking on the journey to acquire a farmhouse for sale is just the beginning; the real investment lies in crafting an environment that contributes to our mental and physical well-being while satisfying the soul. At Farmlandbazaar.com, India’s leading online marketplace dedicated to farm land, farmhouses, and agricultural lands, we understand the importance of transforming a humble farmland into a warm and inviting sanctuary. Let's explore the fundamental aspects that can elevate your farmhouse into a tranquil haven.
BEST FARMLAND FOR SALE | FARM PLOTS NEAR BANGALORE | KANAKAPURA | CHICKKABALP...knox groups real estate
welcome to knox groups real estate company in Bangalore. best farm land for sale near Bangalore and madhugiri . Managed farmland near Kanakapura and Chickkabalapur get know more details about the projects .Knox groups is a leading real estate company dedicated to helping individuals and businesses navigate the dynamic real estate market. With our extensive knowledge, experience, and commitment to excellence, we deliver exceptional results for our clients. Discover the perfect foundation for your agricultural aspirations with KNOX Groups' prime farm lands. These aren't just plots; they're the fertile grounds where vibrant crops flourish, livestock thrives, and unique agricultural ventures come to life. At KNOX, we go beyond selling land we curate sustainable ecosystems, ensuring that your journey toward agricultural success is seamless and prosperous.
The SVN® organization shares a portion of their new weekly listings via their SVN Live® Weekly Property Broadcast. Visit https://svn.com/svn-live/ if you would like to attend our weekly call, which we open up to the brokerage community.
AVRUPA KONUTLARI ESENTEPE - ENGLISH - Listing TurkeyListing Turkey
Looking for a new home in Istanbul? Look no further than Avrupa Konutlari Esentepe! Our beautifully designed homes provide the perfect blend of luxury and comfort, making them the perfect choice for anyone looking for a high-quality home in the city.
With a wide range of apartment types available, from 1+1 to 4+1, we have something to suit every need and budget. Each apartment is designed with attention to detail and features spacious and bright living areas, making them the perfect place to relax and unwind after a long day.
One of the things that sets Avrupa Konutlari Esentepe apart from other developments is our focus on creating a community that is both comfortable and convenient. Our homes are surrounded by lush green spaces, perfect for enjoying a peaceful stroll or having a picnic with friends and family. Additionally, our complex includes a variety of social and recreational amenities, such as swimming pools, sports fields, and playgrounds, making it easy for residents to stay active and socialize with their neighbors.
https://listingturkey.com/property/avrupa-konutlari-esentepe/
Discover Yeni Eyup Evleri 2, nestled among the rising values of Eyupsultan, offering the epitome of modern living in Istanbul.
With its spacious living areas, contemporary architecture, and meticulous details, Yeni Eyup Evleri 2 is poised to be the star of your happiest moments. Situated in the new favorite district of Eyupsultan, claim your spot and unlock the doors to a peaceful life alongside your loved ones. Nestled next to the historical and natural beauties of Eyupsultan, embrace the comfort of modern living and rediscover life.
Social Amenities:
Yeni Eyup 2 offers a life filled with joy with its green landscaping areas, gym, sauna, children’s play areas, café, outdoor pool, and basketball court. Reserve your place for unforgettable moments!
Reliable Structure:
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Pdf version for flash drive torto_utah -august 14v1
1. An Inconvenient
World …
Presented by:
Raymond G. Torto, Ph.D, CRE
Global Chief Economist
CBRE
7th Annual Mid-Year Economic Real Estate
Symposium
August 14, 2012
Global Research and Consulting
2. Regional Shares of World Output and Population
Source: IHS Global Insight, Q3 2012
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 2
3. The Global Outlook
The global economy is behaving precisely as the history
of financial crises have shown: Vulnerable to too much
debt!
“Low”-- sub-normal-- global economic growth is expected
for balance of decade with slowest period from now to
2014/2015.
Low growth, excess capacity implies low interest rates
and low global inflation for several more years. However,
interest rates will be lower than inflation rates!—
”financial repression”
Global electoral cycle and policy/political discourse
portends political paralysis—fostering a “muddling
through” as opposed to decisive action.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 3
5. Defining “Recovery”
Return to
Previous Previous
Peak Peak
Trough
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 5
6. U.S. Real GDP Has Recovered!
Real GDP, Billions USD
$14,000
Q3 2011
$13,500
$13,000
$12,500
$12,000
$11,500
$11,000
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: IHS Global Insight, data through Q1 2012.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 6
7. U.S. Real GDP Per Capita Has Not Recovered
Real GDP Per Capita, USD
$45,000
$44,000
$43,000
$42,000
$41,000
$40,000
$39,000
Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita
Source: IHS Global Insight, data through Q1 2012.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 7
8. Population Growth by Region
2010 2030 Growth
Number
Population Population Population
North
344 m 401m + 16% 57m
America
Latin America 590m 701m +18% 111m
Asia 3.9b 4.5b +15% 600m
741m
Europe 738m 0 3m
Middle East
1,297m 1,949m +50% 652m
and Africa
Total 1,423m
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 8
9. The Great (Deepest) U.S. Recession
Source: Calculated Risk, July 2012
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 9
10. Except for the Great U.S. Depression!
Global Research and Consulting
Source: Calculated Risk, July 2012
CBRE | Page 10
11. Owner’s Equity has Dropped to 38%
Owner’s Equity in Real Estate, USD Millions Owner’s Equity as a Percentage of Household Real Estate, %
16,000,000 70
14,000,000 65
12,000,000 60
10,000,000 55
8,000,000 50
6,000,000 45
4,000,000 40
2,000,000 35
0 30
2011
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Households Owner's Equity in Real Estate
Owner's Equity as a Percentage of Household Real Estate
Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds B.100 (Q) Balance Sheet Households and Nonprofit Organizations, n.s.a.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 11
13. U.S. Real Estate vs. Other Assets: 1 and 10 year Returns
Total Return Index Comparison as of March 31, 2012
1 Year 10 Year
23.8
13.4
12.6
11.8 11.3
10.4
8.2 7.9
5.5
4.1
2.7 2.5
NPI NPI-Leverage Barclays Capital Consumer Price NAREIT Equity S&P 500 Index
Gct Bond Index Index REIT Index
Source: NCREIF as of March 31, 2012.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 13
17. U.S. Transaction Volume
U.S. Transaction Volume, USD Billions U.S. Share of Global Transaction Volume, %
$140 50%
45%
$120
40%
$100 35%
30%
$80
25%
$60
20%
$40 15%
10%
$20
5%
$- 0%
Unites States Transaction Volume Average Transaction Volume 2007 U.S. Share of Global Total
Source: RCA as of Q3 2012.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 17
18. US Office Cap Rates
Cap Rate, %
Cyclical High Cyclical* Low Current Cap Rate (Q1 2012)
10
9
8
7.4 7.6
7.4 7.3
7 6.9 6.9
6.7
6.3 6.3
6
5.7
5
4
The Cyclical High was chosen as the highest rate after the cyclical low. The Cyclical Low was chosen as the lowest rate from the most recent
cycle (i.e. prior to the onset of Global Financial Crisis)...
Source: CBRE Research and RCA as of Q3 2012; smoothed annual weighted average cap rates used.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 18
20. U.S. Occupancy Trends
Occupancy, Indexed to Q1 2004
110
Hotel
105
MFH
100 Office
Industrial
95 Retail
90
Multi-Housing Industrial Office Retail Hotel
*4 quarter rolling average taken and index is based off that; so for example, the Q1 2004 base figure is the average occupancy from Q2 2003-Q1 2004. As
of the time of update, Q2 data is not yet available.
Source: CBRE EA Outlook as of Q3 2012.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 20
21. Multi-Housing Enters Expansion Phase
Percent
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Multi-Housing Hotels Office Retail Industrial
Q1 2012 Revenue as % of Last Peak Q1 2012 Real Rent as % of Long-Term Average
Source: CBRE EA Outlook, Q1 2012.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 21
22. U.S. TW Rent Index: Office Recovery Progress
Changes in Rents: Peak-to-Trough and Peak to Q2 2012
Change in TW Rent Index (%)
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
Peak To Trough Peak to Current
Source: CBRE EA Outlook, Q2 2012.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 22
24. U.S. Outlays and Receipts
Historical Government Receipts and Outlays as % of GDP
Receipts/Outlays, % GDP
26%
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
Receipts as % of GDP Outlays as % of GDP
Source: Office of Management and Budget Historical Table 1.2.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 24
25. Fiscal Cliff
The Challenge Facing the U.S.
Fiscal Policies Scheduled for January 2013:
Bush Tax cuts Expire
Increase in Federal Payroll Tax
Decreased unemployment benefits
Mandatory spending cuts to defense
and other programs
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 25
26. U.S Political Divide
Shrinking Overlap between the Two Parties in the U.S. Congress
The charts sort Republicans and Democrats by roll call votes along the horizontal axis.
Source: Royce Carroll, Rice University.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 26
27. Thank You
Raymond G. Torto, PhD
Global Chief Economist
raymond.torto@cbre.com
Global Research and Consulting
28. Raymond Torto, PhD, CRE
Ray Torto is CBRE’s Global Chief
Economist. He directs CBRE’s
worldwide team of commercial real estate
market analysts and serves as the firm’s
primary spokesperson on macro
economic issues and the global
commercial real estate market.
Ray earned his Ph.D. in Economics from
Boston College. He is active in many
organizations including Chairman of the
Pension Real Estate Association and the
Real Estate Roundtable. A former
professor and author, he currently
teaches Executive Education in the
Harvard School of Design.
raymond.torto@cbre.com
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 28
29. Disclosures: Raymond G. Torto
The information presented reflects the opinions of Raymond G. Torto based on
sources and data believed to be reliable. Although the information used has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CBRE and CBRE Econometrics
Advisors (formerly Torto Wheaton Research) does not guarantee its accuracy or
completeness. This material is for private use and is for informational purposes
only. Unauthorized distribution or use of the information is strictly prohibited and
all rights to the material are reserved. There is no obligation to update or
supplement this information at any time or in any way. Ray Torto is not a
registered investment advisor.
All contents of this work product and all projections, opinions and forecasts
contained in the presentation are based upon historical events, trends and
econometric models which are subject to material variation and interpretation.
The material is also based upon various assumptions and is subject to significant
uncertainties and contingencies, as well as possible typographical, arithmetic and
other human error, and no representations or warranties, expressed or
implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the products and publications or
any of their separate contents are made herein. This presentation does not take
into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular
person or institution.
Global Research and Consulting
CBRE | Page 29
Editor's Notes
Investment capital has been flowing to real estate…why? The demand for real estate depends on economic activity and economic growth. Does this make sense in an economy that is growing slowly, has many risks to the downside, in a low interest rate environment, and with the potential for future inflation because of all the liquidity/flow of money into the economies of the US and Europe?My answer is yes….but more importantly is the reasons I will present for why commercial real estate—core commercial real estate-- makes eminent sense in a multi-asset portfolio. My task to give you a global perspective for CRE; how it performed? And why?How will it perform in the future?? Why?Investment performance for one, but past returns are not future returns.But for other reasons: diversification within a portfolioYield vs. other fixed income….Capital preservation along with long term appreciation…safer asset Investing vs. trading focusPotential inflation hedge if buy at right time.
- NAFTA includes: US, Canada and Mexico - Europe includes the following 40 Countries: AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelgiumBulgariaBosnia and HerzegovinaSwitzerlandCyprusCzech RepublicGermanyDenmarkSpainEstoniaFinlandFranceUnited KingdomGreeceCroatia (Hrvatska)HungaryIrelandIcelandItalyKosovoLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgLatviaMacedoniaMaltaMontenegroNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSerbia (former Fed. Rep. of Yugoslavia)SlovakiaSloveniaSwedenTurkey
Refer to rogoff and second great contraction…Need to define low…. See luciannawef table and good health, vs poor health vs improving health.Note that good heatlh is not the numbers seen in 2005-2007 globally..they were pumped up by debtThe avg of key banks etc for 2012 is 2.9%--see spreadsheet. All are downgrades from mid year, when avg was 3.6% and for 2013 the avg is 3.2%, up but not much. Global growth is slower than 2005-07 everywhere due to boomerang….following a financial crisis, 13 countries..1990’s govt debt increased 86%.DISCUSS THE END GAME TO DEBT….FINANCIAL REPRESSION, HIGHER TAXES AND LOW GROWTH….PLUS MAYBE INFLATION, DEFAUTS AND BETTER TAX REFORM,(HIGHER TAXES) WITH GROWTH.Emphasize that this is liquidly, not solvency….
Given that the U.S. holds the largest and majority share of GDP, it’s natural for us to predominantly focus on its indicators in evaluating the state of the Americas CRE recovery. So, these next few slides will provide several key indicators as an evaluation of whether we can truly ascertain that the economy has recovered.
How do we define recovery? It is very important to determine this when we evaluate whether and the degree to which the US economy and the US CRE market have entered recovery. In this graphic, we demonstrate that I am defining recovery as the point at which the current cycle reaches its pre-recession peak. So as we progress through this presentation, we will consistently be looking at whether a particular series or economic or real estate indicator has reached its pre-recession peak. If that series or indicator hasn’t reached it’s pre-recession peak, oftentimes, we will look at how far the current point is away from its previous peak. This allows for an opportunity to compare markets against one another to determine which markets are performing the best.
2011 ended with a moderate amount of optimism relative to expectations as the growth witnessed in the fourth growth was the largest seen all year. This chart quite clearly shows that US Real Gross Domestic Product GDP has recovered its pre-recession peak level as of Q3 2011. The most recent Real GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the 4th quarter of 2011 (quarter-over-quarter). The increase in GDP quarterly growth was primarily influenced by more spending and investment (positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumptions, nonresidential fix investment, exports, and residential fixed investment). The Q4 quarterly growth was however dragged down by the public sector and, was not surprisingly, offset by negative contributions from the federal, state and local government spending.
Despite the recovery witnessed in the overall GDP level, another very useful measure of the overall U.S. recovery is GDP per capita, which remains well below its pre-recession level. While private consumer spending and modest business investment (on technology investment for example) have boosted the overall GDP level, standard of living as measured by Real GDP per Capita still has room for improvement.
Not only have prices dropped, but owner’s equity has dropped as well – to roughly only 38% of total household real estate value. This level is significantly below the pre-recession peak where owner’s equity held steady around 60% of total household real estate. Prior to the recession, and during a stage when access to credit was high, many homeowners took out second mortgages thus depleting their equity and resulting in the levels we see today. With personal savings rates gradually increasing, these equity rates will likely gradually increase as well.
This is US and 1 and 10 year…. As of 2nd Quarter…Note unleveraged and leveragedBetter than inflation….CONCLUSIONS…CRE HAS DONE BETTER THAN STOCKS AND BONDS IN US FOR LAST 10 YEARS… AND DONE BETTER THAN INFLATION… even for 5 years globally 2007-2011..done 3.1% and about = bonds at 2.9%BUT HERE IS QUESTION: WHAT IS FUTURE? WHAT MIGHT FUTURE RETURNS LOOK LIKE….??? Indices Explanation: NPI- The NCREIF Property Index is a quarterly time series composite total rate of return measure of investment performance of a very large pool of individual commercial real estate properties acquired in the private market for investment purposes only. NFI-ODCE:The NFI-ODCE, short for NCREIF Fund Index - Open End Diversified Core Equity, is the first of the NCREIF Fund Database products and is an index of investment returns reporting on both a historical and current basis the results of 26 open-end commingled funds pursuing a core investment strategy, some of which have performance histories dating back to the 1970s. The NFI-ODCE Index is capitalization-weighted and is reported gross of fees. Measurement is time-weighted. NCREIF will calculate the overall aggregated Index return.A fund must market itself as an open-end commingled fund pursuing a diversified core investment strategy, primarily investing in private equity real estate with the following guidelines. Barclays Capital Gvt Bond Index: The index measures the performance of U.S. Dollar denominated U.S. Treasuries, government-related and investment grade U.S. corporate securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than one year and less than ten years.Barclays Capitial US Gvt/Credit Index: The Barclays Capital Long Government/Credit Index measures the investment return of all medium and larger public issues of U.S. Treasury, agency, investment-grade corporate, and investment-grade international dollar-denominated bonds with maturities longer than 10 years. The average maturity is approximately 20 years.
How should we think about real estate??WE BUY REAL ESTATE FOR INCOME AND APPRECIATIONWE KNOW THAT REAL ESTATE IS CYCLICAL, WE KNOW THAT OLD ADAGE, YOU MAKE YOUR MONEY ON THE BUY!!!SO WHERE IS INCOME AND YIELD GOING, ANDARE PRICES TOO HIGH TODAY?
Noi is fundamentals and g is growth in fundamental In recent years values driven rr falling….not by noi and g,,,,,, it is spreads and r which is required returns…Questions: will r rise?? Where is NOI going….Entering a period with more volatility in prices than in earnings.Also question of how much systemic diversification do you get across msa, etc, if lots of correlations…
Transitioning to the U.S. Capital markets, this chart gives a perspective of where real estate transaction volumes stand for the U.S. It’s important to note that, as was the case for the share of GDP, the U.S. holds the majority share of transaction volumes relative to the other Americas countries. Thus, for the purposes of gaining an overview on the market it is appropriate to look at the U.S. first and foremost. The Americas has witnessed an upswing in investment activity (both from domestic and cross-border flows), however as can be seen from this chart, the volume remains well below pre-recession levels. The average quarterly transaction volume for 2007 was $104 Billion USD, while the average quarterly investment volume for 2011 was $45 Billion USD. As measured by the share of Global Transactions, the U.S. regained a 41.9% quarterly average share of total global transactions, which was a slight decline relative to the 48.1% average quarterly share experienced in 2007.
Gateway markets such as New York, Chicago and Boston, and prime properties in CBD locations continued to witness the greatest investor attention given their relatively more liquid conditions and reliable income streams from highly rated occupiers. An unusually high pricing gap has been witnessed in recent quarters between CBD and suburban major metro areas. On a more granular level, this slide demonstrates that, as was the case with rents, none of the key US office markets have witnessed a full recovery (contraction) in pre-recession cap rate levels. However, it’s worth noting just how much each metro area has compressed from its most recent cyclic high- this was also the case with rents. Both measures show the metro areas short of their pre-recession conditions, but considerably improved from their cyclic troughs. Notably, though, you’ll see that the compression in cap rates has outpaced the recovery in rents, which leads one to question whether pricing could correct itself, or more than likely remain static over the near future while fundamentals’ performance in the leasing market catches up. Slide Note: The Cyclical High was chosen as the highest rate after the cyclical low. The Cyclical Low was chosen as the lowest rate from the most recent cycle (i.e. prior to the onset of Global Financial Crisis)...
Having covered several key economic indicators and keeping that perspective in mind, we now turn to the CRE leasing market. Office, Multi-housing and Hotels have all regained their normal vacancy rates, however as shown in the slide above (and in keeping with our “Defining Recovery” theme, EVERY property type’s occupancy rate remains below their pre-recession peak). While employment growth has only just recently showed signs of measurable improvement, the hotel demand recovery (which is highly correlated with GDP growth) surged on during 2010 and 2011. The impressive recovery in demand (seen in the chart) in 2010 was brought on when GDP was growing at over 3% per quarter (y-o-y) and thus business confidence brought increases in business travel as well as leisure travel. Thus, while the demand recovery was strong in 2011, it was not nearly as high as the improvement witnessed in 2010. Many sectors are highly linked to the labor market and given that employment gains remain muted, tenants are still in the process of shedding shadow space and finding ways to make efficient use of space amidst the prevailing global economic uncertainty, so occupancy improvements, while positive, remain gradual particularly for the Office and Retail sectors. The office sector experienced a setback in its recovery in terms of its occupancy rate as a result of the slowdown in hiring that occurred towards the second half of 2011. More hiring will be necessary for occupancy to reach pre-recession levels. - Multi-housing’s occupancy rate remains closest to each pre-recession peak of any other property type. Gradual improvements in the labor market during the first half of 2011 helped the multi-housing sector which has experienced accelerated demand in the last couple quarters. Q1’s drop in vacancy (90 bps drop to 5.1%) was the largest bps drop experienced since 2010. Industrial (with a vacancy rate of 13.4%) has been undergoing 7 straight quarters of vacancy declines (occupancy increases) thanks to the fact that demand has been growing much faster than any increases in supply. With trade flows still muted and domestic consumption still down, the industrial rate remains above its normal rate and is not expected to return to that rate until Q2 2014. The retail recovery (with a currency vacancy rate of 13.1%) continues to experience challenges and retailers remain wary of taking on new space. The retail vacancy rate also remains above its normal rate and it is not expected to return to normal rates until Q4 2014. Interestingly, the pace and strength of the U.S. consumer recovery is somewhat disconnected from the retail recovery, as while core retail sales grew impressively in February (and even higher than the holiday season), retailers remain cautious and are not correspondingly absorbing new space.
As is quite evident from this slide, Multi-housing is the only U.S. sector that has entered the expansion phase of its revenues (and emerged from it’s recovery phase). Now that the Multi-housing sector has entered the expansion phase, we can expect to see new construction activity gain momentum. The hotels property type remains the next closest in-line to emerging from its recovery phase while Retail and Industrial revenues both remain farthest from their previous peak (with rents prevailing at historically low levels). Demand growth and vacancy declines in nearly every sector other than Multi-housing and Hotels have remained gradual over the course of 2011 given the prevailing global economic uncertainty (only gradual improvements in employment), and as a result, rents have not had the opportunity to regain enough traction to recover previous peak levels.
As was the case with the only gradual occupancy improvements for Office, rents for key markets in the office sector have not yet recovered their previous peak levels. Before the office market can recover what was lost, the labor market will need to witness more hiring by business owners to allow for demand (occupancy) to improve and then for rents to follow.
In addition to a depressed housing market and historically high unemployment rates, the debt crisis here in the U.S. (as well as the crises in Europe) contributes to market volatility and dampens both consumer and business confidence. Moreover, uncertainty abounds as to how the Federal Government economic policies will be handled in the future. The last time the government recorded a surplus was in 2001. As can be seen from this chart, 2011’s outlays exceeded 24% of GDP, while receipts were just over 15% of GDP. Current levels remain very large relative to historic perspectives. Now, the U.S. mountain of debt continues to accumulate, and while the deficit continues to shrink, the gap between spending and revenues will persist. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the deficit for the 2012 budget year will be $1.17 trillion USD (7% of GDP). 2012’s estimated deficit will be a slight improvement from 2011’s $1.3 trillion USD deficit (8.7% of GDP, which was the largest deficit in the last 40 years). The CBO’s outlook for deficits over the next several years decline substantially and average 1.5% of GDP, however these estimates assume substantial changes to tax and spending polices scheduled to take effect around the beginning of 2013. OutlaysLong Term Average (1980-2011) = 21.2%1980’s Average = 22.2%1990’s Average = 20.7%2000’s Average = 20.0%2010 and 2011 Average = 24.1%ReceiptsLong Term Average (1980-2011) = 18.0%1980’s Average = 18.3%1990’s Average = 18.5%2000’s Average = 17.7%2010 and 2011 Average = 15.3%
In, December 2010, the Bush Tax cuts were extended 24 months and the Payroll tax cut was extended 12 months. Congress must now make all decisions as to whether to let these cuts expire by January 2013. If the House and Senate don’t act soon enough the Bush Tax cuts will expire, the Temporary Payroll tax cut will end, and unemployment benefits will be severely curtailed. (ALL on January 1, 2013). Bush Tax cuts expire (includes rate increases, child tax credit reductions, estate tax increases, marriage penalty increases and other tax benefits for education, retirement savings and low-income individuals) A 200 basis point increase in Federal Payroll Tax Decreased unemployment benefitsAdditionally,Sequestration laws (Mandatory Spending Cuts),which are scheduled to make automaticspending cuts to defense and other programs will kick in (related to the Budget Control Act – debt ceiling debate agreement of August 2011). The “Super Committee” was unable to come to agreements as to how they will cut spending, so these Sequestration laws will kick in at the start of 2013 as well. Alan Blinder: “The U.S. Cruises Toward a 2013 Fiscal Cliff,” “If all fiscal policy changes occur, the combined contraction would amount to roughly 3.5% of GDP”.
With the progressively shrinking political overlap between the two U.S. political parties in Congress, the more unsettled the U.S. becomes as to the capability of Congress to adequately address the many issues facing the nation’s long term fiscal sustainability. We saw the consequences of this first hand last August with the S&P downgrade of the U.S. credit rating amidst the U.S. debt ceiling debates. The political divide will continue to cause volatility and promote uncertainty for not only the U.S. economy, but also the global economy.