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Open & Distance Learning
Reflections on Trends
OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
and Laureate International Universities (LIU)
International seminar
“Opening higher education: what the future might bring”
Berlin, Germany, 8-9 December 2016
Agenda
• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”
• Where is the value in open/distance learning?
• New openness, new competition
2
© IGI Services 2016
2
Agenda
• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”
• Where is the value in open/distance learning?
• New openness, new competition
3
© IGI Services 2016
3
Perpetual challenges…
• National data on “open” and “distance
learning” remains rare, and therefore little
comparative analysis
• Limited disaggregation by delivery mode and
operational model
• Disparities on definition
© IGI Services 2016
4
Why are US DL specialists loosing share?
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
25 Distance-Only 4Y HEIs1,841 Other 4Y HEIs with Distance Students
2012
2013
2014
Down about 10%
© IGI Services 2016
5
Up over 20%
Source: IPEDS and Observatory analysis
StudentHeadcount(Fall)-Undergraduate
andGraduate
Median
Enrollment=
11,500 (2014)
Median
Enrollment= 194
(2014)
Mixed enrollment trends globally- why?
6
From “The State of Open Universities in the Commonwealth” report (CoL/OBHE- 2016)
© IGI Services 2016
Explaining growth and decline…
Reasons for Growth
• Add genuine capacity
• Common, outcomes-based regulation
• Unique presence/role
Reasons for Decline
• Conventional HEI competition
• Legacy instructional model
• Limited case for modality and scale
© IGI Services 2016
7
Agenda
• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”
• Where is the value in open/distance learning?
• New openness, new competition
8
© IGI Services 2016
How to define and report DL outcomes?
0%
60%
40%
0%
20%
80%
0%
30%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Detailed Partial Little or None
Graduation Rates
Graduate Employment
Productivity
© IGI Services 2016
9
Outcomes Reporting- Website assessment
of 10 ODL universities globally From “The State of Open
Universities in the
Commonwealth” report
(CoL/OBHE- 2016)
Maybe openness is not the problem?
© IGI Services 2016
10
Source:
Completing
College (NSCH)-
US Fall 2010
cohort (2016)
Much DL exhibits limited innovation
beyond delivery mode
© IGI Services 2016
11
Agenda
• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”
• Where is the value in open/distance learning?
• New openness, new competition
12
© IGI Services 2016
New Competition…
Top right will drive effectiveness, but
implications for scale and DL? © IGI Services 2016
14
Degrees Degree
Alternatives
Explicit Pedagogy &
Outcomes
Implicit Pedagogy &
Outcomes
DL/Online
HE
CBE
Free MOOCs
Paid MOOCs
Traditional HE
Bootcamps
HEI Certificates
Micromasters
Circle size= enrollment scale
Minerva
Georgia Tech
CS Master’s
Summary…
• DL data- inputs, process, outputs- remains
patchy, muted and complex. Second best?
• Much DL fails to innovate beyond delivery
mode; and makes limited case for scale
• DL being “domesticated” by traditional HEIs
• New models emphasis pedagogy over delivery
mode
• Is blended best mix of pedagogy, access and
scale?
© IGI Services 2016
15
Thank youThank you
Richard Garrett
Director, The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education
richard.garrett@obhe.org
obhe.org
Chief Research Officer
Eduventures
rgarrett@eduventures.com
eduventures.com

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Open & Distance Learning Reflections on Trends by Richard Garrett (OBHE)

  • 1. Open & Distance Learning Reflections on Trends OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) and Laureate International Universities (LIU) International seminar “Opening higher education: what the future might bring” Berlin, Germany, 8-9 December 2016
  • 2. Agenda • Open/Distance learning as “traditional” • Where is the value in open/distance learning? • New openness, new competition 2 © IGI Services 2016 2
  • 3. Agenda • Open/Distance learning as “traditional” • Where is the value in open/distance learning? • New openness, new competition 3 © IGI Services 2016 3
  • 4. Perpetual challenges… • National data on “open” and “distance learning” remains rare, and therefore little comparative analysis • Limited disaggregation by delivery mode and operational model • Disparities on definition © IGI Services 2016 4
  • 5. Why are US DL specialists loosing share? 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 25 Distance-Only 4Y HEIs1,841 Other 4Y HEIs with Distance Students 2012 2013 2014 Down about 10% © IGI Services 2016 5 Up over 20% Source: IPEDS and Observatory analysis StudentHeadcount(Fall)-Undergraduate andGraduate Median Enrollment= 11,500 (2014) Median Enrollment= 194 (2014)
  • 6. Mixed enrollment trends globally- why? 6 From “The State of Open Universities in the Commonwealth” report (CoL/OBHE- 2016) © IGI Services 2016
  • 7. Explaining growth and decline… Reasons for Growth • Add genuine capacity • Common, outcomes-based regulation • Unique presence/role Reasons for Decline • Conventional HEI competition • Legacy instructional model • Limited case for modality and scale © IGI Services 2016 7
  • 8. Agenda • Open/Distance learning as “traditional” • Where is the value in open/distance learning? • New openness, new competition 8 © IGI Services 2016
  • 9. How to define and report DL outcomes? 0% 60% 40% 0% 20% 80% 0% 30% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Detailed Partial Little or None Graduation Rates Graduate Employment Productivity © IGI Services 2016 9 Outcomes Reporting- Website assessment of 10 ODL universities globally From “The State of Open Universities in the Commonwealth” report (CoL/OBHE- 2016)
  • 10. Maybe openness is not the problem? © IGI Services 2016 10 Source: Completing College (NSCH)- US Fall 2010 cohort (2016)
  • 11. Much DL exhibits limited innovation beyond delivery mode © IGI Services 2016 11
  • 12. Agenda • Open/Distance learning as “traditional” • Where is the value in open/distance learning? • New openness, new competition 12 © IGI Services 2016
  • 14. Top right will drive effectiveness, but implications for scale and DL? © IGI Services 2016 14 Degrees Degree Alternatives Explicit Pedagogy & Outcomes Implicit Pedagogy & Outcomes DL/Online HE CBE Free MOOCs Paid MOOCs Traditional HE Bootcamps HEI Certificates Micromasters Circle size= enrollment scale Minerva Georgia Tech CS Master’s
  • 15. Summary… • DL data- inputs, process, outputs- remains patchy, muted and complex. Second best? • Much DL fails to innovate beyond delivery mode; and makes limited case for scale • DL being “domesticated” by traditional HEIs • New models emphasis pedagogy over delivery mode • Is blended best mix of pedagogy, access and scale? © IGI Services 2016 15
  • 16. Thank youThank you Richard Garrett Director, The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education richard.garrett@obhe.org obhe.org Chief Research Officer Eduventures rgarrett@eduventures.com eduventures.com