The document is an executive summary from OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2020 report. It discusses the major impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy demand and oil markets. It outlines how OPEC and partners took production cuts of nearly 10 million barrels per day to stabilize prices and rebalance oil supply and demand. It projects that global GDP will grow to over $258 trillion by 2045, with China and India accounting for 40% of the total. The global population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2045.
Critical review opec relations with us and euTunji Busari
Oil plays a crucial role in global politics and economics. The document discusses the relationship between major oil producing countries (OPEC nations like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria) and Western countries like the US and EU. It explores both the positive and difficult aspects of these relationships. Additionally, it examines how factors like alternative energy sources, economic conditions, and political stability have impacted and reduced OPEC's dominance in global oil markets in recent decades.
This document provides an overview of the global rivalry between OPEC and IEA. OPEC coordinates oil production among its members to influence prices, aiming for stable revenues. IEA represents oil consumers and aims for stable, affordable supply. While their goals differ, both need stable markets. OPEC focuses on production cuts or increases to balance supply and demand. IEA requires stockpiles to offset disruptions and advises members on energy security and climate policies. Their differing roles balance the global oil market.
1) OPEC's oil production rose slightly in July from June, with Libya seeing the largest increase while production fell in Iraq and Angola. However, unrest in countries like Libya, Iraq, and Angola continues to affect supply.
2) Within OPEC, the largest increase came from Libya where supply rose by 210,000 barrels per day but stability remains uncertain. Saudi Arabia and Nigeria also saw small increases while Iraq's supply fell.
3) Looking ahead, declining oil prices could significantly impact Russia's economy and undermine Putin's power since Russia relies heavily on oil exports, which account for 40% of its revenues. A sustained price drop below $100 could force Russia to focus more on propping
Ur-Energy's March 2020 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses Ur-Energy's operations and the uranium market. It notes that Ur-Energy has consistently produced uranium at its Lost Creek facility for over 6 years. It also mentions several factors that could impact the uranium market in coming years, including the expiration of the Russian Suspension Agreement and sanctions on Iran. The document contains forward-looking statements and projections that are inherently uncertain.
Annual report from OPEC outlining OPEC's expectations for the global energy sector--in particular oil and gas--from now until 2040. This year's WOO predicts oil will hit $70 per barrel by 2020 and climb to $95 per barrel by 2040
- The political unrest in Egypt has led to rising oil prices, negatively impacting India through higher import costs and uncertainty around oil supplies. Egypt controls the Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline through which a significant amount of oil is transported.
- India has investments in Egypt's oil and gas sectors that could be disrupted if the instability continues. Several Indian companies have already shut down Egyptian operations.
- Higher oil prices pose inflationary risks for India's economy. The outcome in Egypt will impact global energy supplies, commodity prices, and financial market stability.
How have the Prices of Crude Oil Affected Due to Lockdown? - Phdassistance.comPhD Assistance
COVID-19 threatens the survival of the modern-day human Homo sapiens. The tiny virus has expanded its active presence across continents, with an impactful footprint in over 175 nations. Petroleum sector, more precisely crude oil, is one of the linchpins of global economy. In December 2019, the appearance of the corona virus in China and the gradual expansion of the epidemic drastically reduced crude oil demand and price.
Lockdown is in effect in Italy, Germany, India, Great Britain, South Africa, and Spain. Corona lockdowns have appealed people to "stay home" and avoid unnecessary travel. Corona effectively limits all modes of movement and thus the transport sector 's oil use is expected to drop dramatically. Additionally, shorter manufacturing and consumer operations should limit fuel usage.
To Learn More: https://www.phdassistance.com/blog/
Contact Us:
UK NO: +44-1143520021
India No: +91-8754446690
Email: info@phdassistance.com
Critical review opec relations with us and euTunji Busari
Oil plays a crucial role in global politics and economics. The document discusses the relationship between major oil producing countries (OPEC nations like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria) and Western countries like the US and EU. It explores both the positive and difficult aspects of these relationships. Additionally, it examines how factors like alternative energy sources, economic conditions, and political stability have impacted and reduced OPEC's dominance in global oil markets in recent decades.
This document provides an overview of the global rivalry between OPEC and IEA. OPEC coordinates oil production among its members to influence prices, aiming for stable revenues. IEA represents oil consumers and aims for stable, affordable supply. While their goals differ, both need stable markets. OPEC focuses on production cuts or increases to balance supply and demand. IEA requires stockpiles to offset disruptions and advises members on energy security and climate policies. Their differing roles balance the global oil market.
1) OPEC's oil production rose slightly in July from June, with Libya seeing the largest increase while production fell in Iraq and Angola. However, unrest in countries like Libya, Iraq, and Angola continues to affect supply.
2) Within OPEC, the largest increase came from Libya where supply rose by 210,000 barrels per day but stability remains uncertain. Saudi Arabia and Nigeria also saw small increases while Iraq's supply fell.
3) Looking ahead, declining oil prices could significantly impact Russia's economy and undermine Putin's power since Russia relies heavily on oil exports, which account for 40% of its revenues. A sustained price drop below $100 could force Russia to focus more on propping
Ur-Energy's March 2020 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses Ur-Energy's operations and the uranium market. It notes that Ur-Energy has consistently produced uranium at its Lost Creek facility for over 6 years. It also mentions several factors that could impact the uranium market in coming years, including the expiration of the Russian Suspension Agreement and sanctions on Iran. The document contains forward-looking statements and projections that are inherently uncertain.
Annual report from OPEC outlining OPEC's expectations for the global energy sector--in particular oil and gas--from now until 2040. This year's WOO predicts oil will hit $70 per barrel by 2020 and climb to $95 per barrel by 2040
- The political unrest in Egypt has led to rising oil prices, negatively impacting India through higher import costs and uncertainty around oil supplies. Egypt controls the Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline through which a significant amount of oil is transported.
- India has investments in Egypt's oil and gas sectors that could be disrupted if the instability continues. Several Indian companies have already shut down Egyptian operations.
- Higher oil prices pose inflationary risks for India's economy. The outcome in Egypt will impact global energy supplies, commodity prices, and financial market stability.
How have the Prices of Crude Oil Affected Due to Lockdown? - Phdassistance.comPhD Assistance
COVID-19 threatens the survival of the modern-day human Homo sapiens. The tiny virus has expanded its active presence across continents, with an impactful footprint in over 175 nations. Petroleum sector, more precisely crude oil, is one of the linchpins of global economy. In December 2019, the appearance of the corona virus in China and the gradual expansion of the epidemic drastically reduced crude oil demand and price.
Lockdown is in effect in Italy, Germany, India, Great Britain, South Africa, and Spain. Corona lockdowns have appealed people to "stay home" and avoid unnecessary travel. Corona effectively limits all modes of movement and thus the transport sector 's oil use is expected to drop dramatically. Additionally, shorter manufacturing and consumer operations should limit fuel usage.
To Learn More: https://www.phdassistance.com/blog/
Contact Us:
UK NO: +44-1143520021
India No: +91-8754446690
Email: info@phdassistance.com
Ur-Energy's April 2019 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses the outlook for the uranium market and the company's operations. It notes that uranium demand is expected to increase in coming years due to nuclear power growth. However, supply is threatened by production cuts and closures. The company maintains a low-cost ISR mining operation and flexibility to respond to market conditions. It is taking steps like exploration and trade actions to strengthen the domestic uranium industry's security and independence.
Energy Fuels: American Uranium, Global Energy bluephoenixinc
Energy Fuels Inc. is focused on clean, stable baseload power. Here is the company's most recent presentation. If the U.S. is focused on meeting stringent emissions targets by 2025, nuclear energy must work with renewables more closely. Learn more here.
Ur-Energy's July 2019 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses Ur-Energy's uranium production operations and development projects. It summarizes that Ur-Energy has consistently produced uranium at its Lost Creek facility for over 5 years. It also outlines Ur-Energy's other projects including Shirley Basin, which has an estimated 8.8 million pound resource that could be profitable to produce. Finally, it discusses the potential positive impacts on the uranium market from the ongoing U.S. Section 232 trade investigation into uranium imports.
- The Covid-19 outbreak and collapse of the OPEC+ alliance have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, with both a reduction in demand due to the economic slowdown and a coming oversupply as Saudi Arabia and Russia increase production.
- Oil prices have collapsed to around $36 per barrel and could fall further, pressuring the budgets of oil producing countries who need higher prices. This will weaken the economies of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members.
- The renewable energy sector may also see delays and slower growth as supply chains are disrupted and economic difficulties reduce investment and subsidies. Gas markets will remain oversupplied and depressed.
- The European Green Deal faces challenges
Ur-Energy's February 2019 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses the outlook for the uranium market and Ur-Energy's projects and operations. It notes that uranium demand is projected to increase annually through 2025. However, production cuts from major producers have reduced supply. Ur-Energy has maintained production at its Lost Creek facility and sees opportunity in the U.S. as it imports most of its uranium. Ur-Energy's projects like Lost Creek, Shirley Basin, and Lost Soldier contain over 34 million pounds of uranium resources that can be expanded to supply future demand. The company is well-positioned to ramp up as market conditions improve.
Ur-Energy's January Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses the outlook for the uranium market and URG's operations and projects. It notes that uranium demand is projected to increase annually through 2025. URG has maintained production at its Lost Creek facility while keeping costs low. URG's projects include Lost Creek, Shirley Basin and Lost Soldier, which have estimated resources totaling over 34 million pounds. URG is well positioned to increase production as market conditions improve.
In order to tackle the accelerating growth in the demand for energy, and confront any obstacles which impede the implementation of prosperous energy projects, The Master Strategy of the Energy Sector in Jordan for the Period 2007 – 2020 (“Jordan’s Energy Strategy”) has been sanctioned by the Cabinet on 7/12/2004. In both the oil and the natural gas sectors, the principle recommendation and goal of the Jordan’s Energy Strategy is to attract foreign investment to explore, develop and produce resources in open areas.
In Jordan there is no specific legislation regulating oil and gas activities, yet, the legal framework is suitable for the current volume and condition of operations in the sector. This paper will outline such regime and the oil and gas market as a whole. It will look at the historic development of the market, the current market conditions and players and the legal framework governing oil and gas activities.
Ur-Energy's July 2018 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
- Ur-Energy operates the Lost Creek ISR uranium facility in Wyoming which has consistently produced nearly 5 years. Production is the lowest-cost among publicly traded companies.
- The US is dependent on foreign uranium imports which now account for over 50 million pounds annually. However, Ur-Energy is well positioned to increase domestic production if market conditions change.
- A joint filing by Ur-Energy and Energy Fuels requests an investigation into the national security implications of rising uranium imports, which could dramatically impact the US uranium industry if determinations are made.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
New base energy news 22 october 2020 issue no. 1383 by senior editor khal...Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase Energy News 22 October 2020 - Issue No. 1383 by Senior Editor Khaled Alawadi. NewBase Energy News 22 October 2020 - Issue No. 1383 by Senior Editor Khaled Alawadi.docx
The document discusses how geopolitics impacts oil and gas markets. It outlines several geopolitical factors, including conflicts in the Persian Gulf region which contains over half of global oil reserves. Military threats, domestic instability, and disputes over Caspian Basin resources all pose risks. Over 90% of Gulf oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and any closure could drastically increase prices. Wars like the Gulf War and Iraq War led to supply disruptions and price volatility. Geography also influences gas markets due to high transportation costs via pipelines.
- Stock markets were mostly positive in September, supported by expansionary monetary policy from the ECB. Crude oil prices fell due to weak global demand.
- The utility sector rose 1.9% led by gains in energy companies. Snam shares fell 1% underperforming peers and indices.
- Snam's acquisition of TAG, a strategic gas pipeline company, was approved to strengthen Snam's role in European energy infrastructure.
The document provides a weekly update on the global oil and gas markets. It discusses how the upcoming US presidential election is unlikely to significantly impact near-term energy markets. Oil, gas, and equity markets continue looking past current economic weakness as demand recovers slower than expected. US natural gas prices have risen due to declining production and increasing demand from LNG exports and industry. Jet fuel demand remains weak as air travel has not recovered, impacting oil demand forecasts through 2021. The document also provides brief details on EY as an organization focused on the oil and gas sector.
How have the Prices of Crude Oil Affected Due to Lockdown? - Phdassistance.comPhD Assistance
COVID-19 threatens the survival of the modern-day human Homo sapiens. The tiny virus has expanded its active presence across continents, with an impactful footprint in over 175 nations. Petroleum sector, more precisely crude oil, is one of the linchpins of global economy. In December 2019, the appearance of the corona virus in China and the gradual expansion of the epidemic drastically reduced crude oil demand and price.
Lockdown is in effect in Italy, Germany, India, Great Britain, South Africa, and Spain. Corona lockdowns have appealed people to "stay home" and avoid unnecessary travel. Corona effectively limits all modes of movement and thus the transport sector 's oil use is expected to drop dramatically. Additionally, shorter manufacturing and consumer operations should limit fuel usage.
To Learn More: https://www.phdassistance.com/blog/
Contact Us:
UK NO: +44-1143520021
India No: +91-8754446690
Email: info@phdassistance.com
Vandana Hari presented on global energy and petrochemicals outlook. Key points include:
- World population is projected to grow to 9.2 billion by 2040, with denser urbanization in Asia and Africa.
- China and India will drive increasing shares of global economic growth.
- Global oil demand growth is expected to slow dramatically, while gas and petrochemicals demand increases.
- The outlook is for lighter, sweeter global crude but this may reverse after 2025 depending on OPEC production.
Fission Uranium's latest corporate presentation, featuring information on the company's award-winning team and PLS project, as well as the uranium sector and nuclear industry.
This document discusses how OPEC and the G-77 coalition have undermined progress in international climate negotiations. Specifically:
1) OPEC seeks to maintain high oil prices and avoid emissions reductions that could lower prices, so it obstructs climate negotiations. However, high oil prices and climate change both hurt developing countries.
2) The G-77 sometimes tacitly supports OPEC's obstruction, despite having members with diverging interests, due to desires for unity and weaker negotiation capacity compared to OPEC.
3) OPEC's influence within the G-77 stems from its strong negotiation capabilities and shared interests with some G-77 members in maintaining oil revenues and prices. This comprom
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
The oil industry has a history spanning over 5,000 years. Major events include the first structured oil well being built in the Gulf of Mexico and oil crises in the 1970s causing price fluctuations. Currently, world oil consumption is around 85 million barrels per day with the top producers being Middle Eastern countries. Factors like OPEC decisions, geopolitical conflicts, and economic conditions influence global oil prices. While oil remains crucial as a non-renewable resource, peak oil production may be reached by 2030, highlighting the need for alternatives.
The document is an executive summary for the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2023. It discusses how views on energy transitions have shifted to recognize the need for all energy sources and technologies. The future requires pathways that enable economic growth while reducing emissions. The outlook sees global energy demand growing 23% by 2045, requiring huge investments in all energies. Specifically, oil demand is projected to reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, requiring $14 trillion in oil sector investments. While increasing energy access, emissions must also be reduced through technologies like carbon capture and clean hydrogen.
This report summarizes the medium-term outlook for the oil market. It forecasts slower demand growth than previously expected due to a weaker global economy. North American tight oil production is expected to grow strongly, aided by new technologies. Overall, supply is projected to keep pace with demand, reducing reliance on OPEC and building spare production capacity. However, regional shifts are transforming the oil trade and downstream sectors. Geopolitical risks also remain high in key oil-producing regions.
Ur-Energy's April 2019 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses the outlook for the uranium market and the company's operations. It notes that uranium demand is expected to increase in coming years due to nuclear power growth. However, supply is threatened by production cuts and closures. The company maintains a low-cost ISR mining operation and flexibility to respond to market conditions. It is taking steps like exploration and trade actions to strengthen the domestic uranium industry's security and independence.
Energy Fuels: American Uranium, Global Energy bluephoenixinc
Energy Fuels Inc. is focused on clean, stable baseload power. Here is the company's most recent presentation. If the U.S. is focused on meeting stringent emissions targets by 2025, nuclear energy must work with renewables more closely. Learn more here.
Ur-Energy's July 2019 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses Ur-Energy's uranium production operations and development projects. It summarizes that Ur-Energy has consistently produced uranium at its Lost Creek facility for over 5 years. It also outlines Ur-Energy's other projects including Shirley Basin, which has an estimated 8.8 million pound resource that could be profitable to produce. Finally, it discusses the potential positive impacts on the uranium market from the ongoing U.S. Section 232 trade investigation into uranium imports.
- The Covid-19 outbreak and collapse of the OPEC+ alliance have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, with both a reduction in demand due to the economic slowdown and a coming oversupply as Saudi Arabia and Russia increase production.
- Oil prices have collapsed to around $36 per barrel and could fall further, pressuring the budgets of oil producing countries who need higher prices. This will weaken the economies of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members.
- The renewable energy sector may also see delays and slower growth as supply chains are disrupted and economic difficulties reduce investment and subsidies. Gas markets will remain oversupplied and depressed.
- The European Green Deal faces challenges
Ur-Energy's February 2019 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses the outlook for the uranium market and Ur-Energy's projects and operations. It notes that uranium demand is projected to increase annually through 2025. However, production cuts from major producers have reduced supply. Ur-Energy has maintained production at its Lost Creek facility and sees opportunity in the U.S. as it imports most of its uranium. Ur-Energy's projects like Lost Creek, Shirley Basin, and Lost Soldier contain over 34 million pounds of uranium resources that can be expanded to supply future demand. The company is well-positioned to ramp up as market conditions improve.
Ur-Energy's January Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
The document discusses the outlook for the uranium market and URG's operations and projects. It notes that uranium demand is projected to increase annually through 2025. URG has maintained production at its Lost Creek facility while keeping costs low. URG's projects include Lost Creek, Shirley Basin and Lost Soldier, which have estimated resources totaling over 34 million pounds. URG is well positioned to increase production as market conditions improve.
In order to tackle the accelerating growth in the demand for energy, and confront any obstacles which impede the implementation of prosperous energy projects, The Master Strategy of the Energy Sector in Jordan for the Period 2007 – 2020 (“Jordan’s Energy Strategy”) has been sanctioned by the Cabinet on 7/12/2004. In both the oil and the natural gas sectors, the principle recommendation and goal of the Jordan’s Energy Strategy is to attract foreign investment to explore, develop and produce resources in open areas.
In Jordan there is no specific legislation regulating oil and gas activities, yet, the legal framework is suitable for the current volume and condition of operations in the sector. This paper will outline such regime and the oil and gas market as a whole. It will look at the historic development of the market, the current market conditions and players and the legal framework governing oil and gas activities.
Ur-Energy's July 2018 Corporate PresentationUr-Energy
- Ur-Energy operates the Lost Creek ISR uranium facility in Wyoming which has consistently produced nearly 5 years. Production is the lowest-cost among publicly traded companies.
- The US is dependent on foreign uranium imports which now account for over 50 million pounds annually. However, Ur-Energy is well positioned to increase domestic production if market conditions change.
- A joint filing by Ur-Energy and Energy Fuels requests an investigation into the national security implications of rising uranium imports, which could dramatically impact the US uranium industry if determinations are made.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
New base energy news 22 october 2020 issue no. 1383 by senior editor khal...Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase Energy News 22 October 2020 - Issue No. 1383 by Senior Editor Khaled Alawadi. NewBase Energy News 22 October 2020 - Issue No. 1383 by Senior Editor Khaled Alawadi.docx
The document discusses how geopolitics impacts oil and gas markets. It outlines several geopolitical factors, including conflicts in the Persian Gulf region which contains over half of global oil reserves. Military threats, domestic instability, and disputes over Caspian Basin resources all pose risks. Over 90% of Gulf oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and any closure could drastically increase prices. Wars like the Gulf War and Iraq War led to supply disruptions and price volatility. Geography also influences gas markets due to high transportation costs via pipelines.
- Stock markets were mostly positive in September, supported by expansionary monetary policy from the ECB. Crude oil prices fell due to weak global demand.
- The utility sector rose 1.9% led by gains in energy companies. Snam shares fell 1% underperforming peers and indices.
- Snam's acquisition of TAG, a strategic gas pipeline company, was approved to strengthen Snam's role in European energy infrastructure.
The document provides a weekly update on the global oil and gas markets. It discusses how the upcoming US presidential election is unlikely to significantly impact near-term energy markets. Oil, gas, and equity markets continue looking past current economic weakness as demand recovers slower than expected. US natural gas prices have risen due to declining production and increasing demand from LNG exports and industry. Jet fuel demand remains weak as air travel has not recovered, impacting oil demand forecasts through 2021. The document also provides brief details on EY as an organization focused on the oil and gas sector.
How have the Prices of Crude Oil Affected Due to Lockdown? - Phdassistance.comPhD Assistance
COVID-19 threatens the survival of the modern-day human Homo sapiens. The tiny virus has expanded its active presence across continents, with an impactful footprint in over 175 nations. Petroleum sector, more precisely crude oil, is one of the linchpins of global economy. In December 2019, the appearance of the corona virus in China and the gradual expansion of the epidemic drastically reduced crude oil demand and price.
Lockdown is in effect in Italy, Germany, India, Great Britain, South Africa, and Spain. Corona lockdowns have appealed people to "stay home" and avoid unnecessary travel. Corona effectively limits all modes of movement and thus the transport sector 's oil use is expected to drop dramatically. Additionally, shorter manufacturing and consumer operations should limit fuel usage.
To Learn More: https://www.phdassistance.com/blog/
Contact Us:
UK NO: +44-1143520021
India No: +91-8754446690
Email: info@phdassistance.com
Vandana Hari presented on global energy and petrochemicals outlook. Key points include:
- World population is projected to grow to 9.2 billion by 2040, with denser urbanization in Asia and Africa.
- China and India will drive increasing shares of global economic growth.
- Global oil demand growth is expected to slow dramatically, while gas and petrochemicals demand increases.
- The outlook is for lighter, sweeter global crude but this may reverse after 2025 depending on OPEC production.
Fission Uranium's latest corporate presentation, featuring information on the company's award-winning team and PLS project, as well as the uranium sector and nuclear industry.
This document discusses how OPEC and the G-77 coalition have undermined progress in international climate negotiations. Specifically:
1) OPEC seeks to maintain high oil prices and avoid emissions reductions that could lower prices, so it obstructs climate negotiations. However, high oil prices and climate change both hurt developing countries.
2) The G-77 sometimes tacitly supports OPEC's obstruction, despite having members with diverging interests, due to desires for unity and weaker negotiation capacity compared to OPEC.
3) OPEC's influence within the G-77 stems from its strong negotiation capabilities and shared interests with some G-77 members in maintaining oil revenues and prices. This comprom
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
The oil industry has a history spanning over 5,000 years. Major events include the first structured oil well being built in the Gulf of Mexico and oil crises in the 1970s causing price fluctuations. Currently, world oil consumption is around 85 million barrels per day with the top producers being Middle Eastern countries. Factors like OPEC decisions, geopolitical conflicts, and economic conditions influence global oil prices. While oil remains crucial as a non-renewable resource, peak oil production may be reached by 2030, highlighting the need for alternatives.
The document is an executive summary for the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2023. It discusses how views on energy transitions have shifted to recognize the need for all energy sources and technologies. The future requires pathways that enable economic growth while reducing emissions. The outlook sees global energy demand growing 23% by 2045, requiring huge investments in all energies. Specifically, oil demand is projected to reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, requiring $14 trillion in oil sector investments. While increasing energy access, emissions must also be reduced through technologies like carbon capture and clean hydrogen.
This report summarizes the medium-term outlook for the oil market. It forecasts slower demand growth than previously expected due to a weaker global economy. North American tight oil production is expected to grow strongly, aided by new technologies. Overall, supply is projected to keep pace with demand, reducing reliance on OPEC and building spare production capacity. However, regional shifts are transforming the oil trade and downstream sectors. Geopolitical risks also remain high in key oil-producing regions.
- Global energy investment is set to fall by 20% or nearly $400 billion in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, representing the largest decline on record. This is a reversal from pre-crisis expectations of modest growth.
- Investment activity has been disrupted by lockdowns and project delays, but the oil and gas sector in particular has seen cuts to spending of around one-third due to much lower oil prices and demand.
- While no sector has avoided impacts, utility-scale renewable power projects have proved more resilient than oil and gas supply or efficiency improvements, which rely more on demand growth. The effects of the crisis on energy investment vary significantly between countries.
The 2021 OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin provides key statistics on the global oil and gas industry in 2020. Some highlights include:
- Global crude oil production declined 8.2% to 69.09 million barrels per day in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. OPEC production fell 12.7%.
- World oil demand dropped 9.3% to 90.73 million barrels per day in 2020, the largest decline in history. Demand fell sharply in OECD countries and declined for the first time in non-OECD nations.
- OPEC Member Countries exported 19.7 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2020, a 12.4% decrease from 2019. Over 73
The document provides an overview of economic cooperation within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. It discusses GCC adoption of new IT standards to control costs. Yemen aims to provide laborers to GCC to strengthen economic ties. Financial markets and banking sectors in GCC countries have grown significantly since the 1970s due to increased oil prices. However, GCC countries remain dependent on oil revenues and would benefit from further economic diversification and cooperation, particularly in petrochemical industries, to compete globally.
In the last two years since the publication of the previous
edition of the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report,
the framework conditions for the Travel and Tourism
(T&T) sector have changed significantly. The world has
been facing geopolitical tensions from the Middle East
and Ukraine to South-East Asia, growing terrorism
threats and fear of the spread of global pandemics.
Should they persist, these global challenges could have
significant further repercussions on the T&T industry, as they touch on the pre-condition for the sector
to grow and develop—the ability of people to travel
safely.
The World Economic Forum has, for the past nine
years, engaged key industry and thought leaders through
its Aviation & Travel Industry Partnership Programme,
along with its Global Agenda Council on the Future of
Travel & Tourism, to carry out an in-depth analysis of the
T&T competitiveness of economies around the world.
The resulting Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report
provides a platform for multistakeholder dialogue with the objective of achieving a strong and sustainable
T&T industry capable of contributing effectively to
international economic development.
At the core of the Report is the sixth edition of the
Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI). The aim
of the TTCI, which covers a record 141 economies this
year, is to provide a comprehensive strategic tool for
measuring the “the set of factors and policies that enable
the sustainable development of the Travel & Tourism
sector, which in turn, contributes to the development
and competitiveness of a country.”
Success stories and drivers of cdm project development in sub saharan africaDr Lendy Spires
This document summarizes a study on the success of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in sub-Saharan Africa. It finds that while CDM has potential to promote low-carbon development, very few projects have materialized due to barriers in the region. The study identifies several drivers of success for CDM projects, including an enabling environment for private sector investment, transparent climate change institutions and policies, and strong project fundamentals. Recommendations include improving the investment climate, deploying public funds to de-risk private investment, and building capacity for CDM project development.
The document summarizes an analyst and investor day held by RusHydro in April 2015 in Moscow. It includes five sections:
1) Key highlights from 2014, including leadership changes, dividend policy updates, and acquisitions.
2) 2014 operating results, with generation down in some regions due to lower water levels.
3) 2014 financial results.
4) Updates on investments and development projects.
5) The company's priorities and expectations going forward.
The document provides an overview of RusHydro's 2014 performance and plans for the future.
OPEC is an intergovernmental organization comprised of 11 developing countries whose economies are heavily reliant on oil revenues. Within OPEC, Saudi Arabia has often played a dominant role in climate negotiations due to its large oil production and close ties to the oil industry. However, OPEC is a heterogeneous group with differing interests. While OPEC brings negotiating experience and resources to the G77, Saudi Arabia in particular has opposed emissions reductions and disrupted negotiations by linking issues in a way that frustrates other G77 countries. This report analyzes OPEC's role within the G77 in UNFCCC negotiations and its implications for other developing nations.
The document provides an overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 report. It discusses the collaborative effort between the OECD and FAO to project agricultural commodity markets over the next decade. The baseline projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policies, weather, productivity, and markets. Commodity projections are examined by country experts to develop the outlook.
Measuring, disclosing and managing the carbon intensity of investments and in...Dr Lendy Spires
The document discusses why investors should measure and disclose the greenhouse gas emissions associated with their investments. It notes that despite a lack of global agreement on pricing carbon, regulations to cap or reduce emissions are emerging at national and local levels. These will increasingly impact corporate profitability across sectors. Furthermore, public and political prioritization of emissions is expected to increase as the physical impacts of climate change intensify. Mandatory reporting frameworks for both companies and investors are also emerging in some regions. The document advocates for investors to systematically measure, disclose and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions embedded in their portfolios in order to help decarbonize the global economy.
One of the most burning issues that have dominated the public sphere in Nigeria and other oil exporting countries is the covid-19 pandemic and its attendant challenges. This pandemic is a shock on real economic fundamentals and frictionless of the market. It introduces a barrier between the market forces with strong complementary feedbacks in the real economy. The absence of precise vaccine or medication for the virus has necessitated the adoption of several precautionary measures with the aim of containing its wide spread. Critical among which are the travel restrictions, lockdown measures as well as social and physical distancing. These measures have detrimental effect on the demand and price of oil in the international market. In view of that, this study evaluates the social and economic impact of covid-19 in Nigeria taking into cognisance the effect on certain critical macroeconomic indicators. The study adopted an analytical approach to supplement the much ongoing documentations on the subject matter. Result shows that virtually all essential macroeconomic indicators are grossly affected with tax, remittances and employment exhibiting severe consequences. Also, uncertainty, panics and lockdown measures are key to motivating higher decrease in world demand. The supply disruptions and huge death toll generates a heightened uncertainty and panic for household and business. This uncertainty and panic leads to drop in consumption and investment thereby causing a decrease in corporate cash flows and triggered firm’s bankruptcy. Also, lay-off and exiting firms produce higher unemployment while labour income decreased significantly. Since it entails a large amount of government expenditure especially in the health sector which is required to contain the spread of the virus, there is needs for government to diversify its revenue sources and thus drop over dependency on the oil remittance. Furthermore, there is a need to support the financial system to avoid the health crisis becoming a financial crisis in the long-run.
OECD Publication "Building Financial Resilience
to Climate Impacts. A Framework for Governments to manage the risks of Losses and Damages.
Governments are facing significant climate-related risks from the expected increase in frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, fires, and other climate-related extreme events. The report Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts: A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages provides a strategic framework to help governments, particularly those in emerging market and developing economies, strengthen their capacity to manage the financial implications of climate-related risks. Published in December 2022.
The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Development of Kurdistan Region of Iraq f...IJAEMSJORNAL
This article analyzes the impact of oil price on economic development in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq from 1997-2019. It finds that oil price and oil production value have a statistically significant positive relationship with GDP. As the Kurdistan Region relies heavily on oil exports, changes in international oil prices can significantly impact economic growth. The findings suggest economic development in the region is strongly influenced by factors affecting oil prices and production levels. The article concludes more efforts are needed to utilize other resources besides oil revenues to increase income and stabilize the economy.
This document is a literature review and thesis proposal on the future of alternative fuels in aviation. It discusses the background of biofuels in aviation and issues around reducing carbon emissions. The literature review covers different types of biofuels like first generation from sugar/starch and second generation from non-food sources. It also discusses feedstocks, production processes, and environmental benefits of biofuels like hydro-treated vegetable oil and Fischer-Tropsch fuels. The document outlines the structure of the thesis which will analyze data on biofuel production and use to predict market share between 2015-2050. It will address technical, economic and policy factors to answer which biofuel is most likely for commercial use in aviation by 2050.
New base energy news issue 916 dated 28 august 2016Khaled Al Awadi
- OPEC members' net oil export revenue dropped 46% in 2015 to $404 billion, the lowest level since 2004, due to declining crude oil prices.
- The effects of lower revenue have significant implications for OPEC members that rely heavily on oil exports to fund social programs and imports.
- While countries with large financial reserves like Saudi Arabia are less affected, others like Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela face greater challenges without large reserves to offset lower oil revenues.
The Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) launched its first public World Database in November 2005, representing an important milestone. The database contains oil supply and demand statistics for 93 countries from January 2002 to the most recent month available. While not perfect, it marks significant progress in transparency. JODI organizers are committed to improving coverage, timeliness, and quality of the data through continued cooperation with countries and industry. Their next priorities include consolidating the existing database and increasing data quality through a manual on definitions and methodologies.
Places like Singapore, Boston, Bangalore, Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, and others are known as leaders in innovation, but when it comes to building the knowledge economy, the Gulf has become one of the most ambitious regions in the world.
A decade ago, the consensus from outside the region was that Middle Eastern countries, including those in the Gulf, were a long way from developing knowledge economies— defined as economies that combine advanced research and development, entrepreneurialism, and creative thinking into innovative, wealth-generating enterprises. Fast-forward to 2015, and many Arab Gulf countries have become well known for their attempts at building knowledge economies, for instance through innovation clusters such as Abu Dhabi's Masdar City, Dubai's TechnoPark, Qatar's Science and Technology Park, and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. Through these and other efforts, Gulf countries have invested billions of dollars in dozens of initiatives to co-locate the sources of innovation—research labs, venture capital, entrepreneurs, high-technology companies, and educational institutions, in hopes of building globally renowned knowledge economies.
In Brainstorming the Gulf: Innovation and the Knowledge Economy in the GCC, the report's author, Peter Engelke, Senior Fellow for the Strategic Foresight Initiative in the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, highlights the successes that Gulf states have enjoyed to date and addresses the major hurdles to sustaining and expanding these successes. While all signs point to the staying power of Arab Gulf leadership's long-term commitment to the knowledge economy, the harder part will be sustaining the knowledge economy's soft infrastructure—the dimension of entrepreneurial culture involving creativity, expression, inclusion, disruption, and borrowing from global cultural flows. If talented people are at the core of the innovation process, government policy in the Gulf ought to focus as much on the creation of dynamic and livable places in order to attract and retain the best talent from all over the world. As Arab Gulf states have already discovered, this pathway is disruptive, bringing with it significant social consequences.
The Big Oil Reality Check report finds that the climate pledges and plans of 8 international oil and gas companies fail to align with international agreements to phase out fossil fuels and to limit global temperature rise to 1.5ºC.
Publication May 2021
IEA publication, May 2024
Critical minerals, which are essential for a range of clean energy technologies, have risen up the policy agenda in recent years due to increasing demand, volatile price movements, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns. The dynamic nature of the market necessitates greater transparency and reliable information to facilitate informed decision-making, as underscored by the request from Group of Seven (G7) ministers for the IEA to produce medium- and long-term outlooks for critical minerals.
The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 follows the IEA’s inaugural review of the market last year. It provides a snapshot of industry developments in 2023 and early 2024 and offers medium- and long-term outlooks for the demand and supply of key energy transition minerals based on the latest technology and policy trends.
The report also assesses key risks to the reliability, sustainability and diversity of critical mineral supply chains and analyses the consequences for policy and industry stakeholders. It will be accompanied by an updated version of the Critical Minerals Data Explorer, an interactive online tool that allows users to explore the latest IEA projections.
Science Publication
Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider
impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons1–6
.
Here we use recent empirical fndings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over
the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation,
including daily variability and extremes7,8
. Using an empirical approach that provides
a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we fnd that
the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next
26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without
climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical
uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit
global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge
strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly
through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic
components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional
heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very
high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefts. The
largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative
historical emissions and lower present-day income.
Science Publication: The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate poli...Energy for One World
Nature Communication, Publication 2024
To limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C, CO2 emissions must
be drastically reduced. Accordingly, approximately 97%, 81%, and 71% of
existing coal and conventional gas and oil resources, respectively, need to
remain unburned. This article develops an integrated spatial assessment
model based on estimates and locations of conventional oil resources and
socio-environmental criteria to construct a global atlas of unburnable oil. The
results show that biodiversity hotspots, richness centres of endemic species,
natural protected areas, urban areas, and the territories of Indigenous Peoples
in voluntary isolation coincide with 609 gigabarrels (Gbbl) of conventional oil
resources. Since 1524 Gbbl of conventional oil resources are required to be left
untapped in order to keep global warming under 1.5 °C, all of the above-
mentioned socio-environmentally sensitive areas can be kept entirely off-
limits to oil extraction. The model provides spatial guidelines to select
unburnable fossil fuels resources while enhancing collateral socio-
environmental benefits.
This document is a report from the Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development summarizing the current state of financing for sustainable development. It finds financing gaps have increased to $4 trillion annually for developing countries. Progress on reducing poverty and hunger has stalled or reversed in some cases. Many developing economies face high debt burdens, exacerbating financing challenges. The report calls for $500 billion in additional annual investments in sustainable development and climate action through measures like development bank reforms, debt relief for vulnerable countries, and international financial system reforms to better support developing countries in achieving the SDGs. It will help inform discussions at the upcoming Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development.
This report analyzes global trends in corporate sustainability policies and practices. It finds that nearly 10,000 listed companies representing $85 trillion in market capitalization disclosed sustainability information in 2022. Most large companies report greenhouse gas emissions and set reduction targets, though target baselines are often missing. The report also examines board oversight of sustainability issues, executive compensation linked to ESG metrics, corporate lobbying activities, and stakeholder engagement practices. It concludes by recommending flexibility in disclosure standards and increased assurance of sustainability reports.
European Court of Human Rights: Judgment Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and ...Energy for One World
The European Court of Human Rights found Switzerland in violation of its obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights to protect citizens from climate change. The Court ruled that Article 8, the right to respect for private and family life, includes protection from serious adverse effects of climate change. However, it found the individual applicants did not have standing, while the applicant association representing over 2,000 older women did have standing. The Court also found Switzerland violated Article 6 by failing to properly consider the association's complaints in domestic courts. Overall, Switzerland failed to implement sufficient legislation and measures to meet its climate change targets in line with its international commitments.
Contributi dei parlamentari del PD - Contributi L. 3/2019Partito democratico
DI SEGUITO SONO PUBBLICATI, AI SENSI DELL'ART. 11 DELLA LEGGE N. 3/2019, GLI IMPORTI RICEVUTI DALL'ENTRATA IN VIGORE DELLA SUDDETTA NORMA (31/01/2019) E FINO AL MESE SOLARE ANTECEDENTE QUELLO DELLA PUBBLICAZIONE SUL PRESENTE SITO
The Antyodaya Saral Haryana Portal is a pioneering initiative by the Government of Haryana aimed at providing citizens with seamless access to a wide range of government services
This report explores the significance of border towns and spaces for strengthening responses to young people on the move. In particular it explores the linkages of young people to local service centres with the aim of further developing service, protection, and support strategies for migrant children in border areas across the region. The report is based on a small-scale fieldwork study in the border towns of Chipata and Katete in Zambia conducted in July 2023. Border towns and spaces provide a rich source of information about issues related to the informal or irregular movement of young people across borders, including smuggling and trafficking. They can help build a picture of the nature and scope of the type of movement young migrants undertake and also the forms of protection available to them. Border towns and spaces also provide a lens through which we can better understand the vulnerabilities of young people on the move and, critically, the strategies they use to navigate challenges and access support.
The findings in this report highlight some of the key factors shaping the experiences and vulnerabilities of young people on the move – particularly their proximity to border spaces and how this affects the risks that they face. The report describes strategies that young people on the move employ to remain below the radar of visibility to state and non-state actors due to fear of arrest, detention, and deportation while also trying to keep themselves safe and access support in border towns. These strategies of (in)visibility provide a way to protect themselves yet at the same time also heighten some of the risks young people face as their vulnerabilities are not always recognised by those who could offer support.
In this report we show that the realities and challenges of life and migration in this region and in Zambia need to be better understood for support to be strengthened and tuned to meet the specific needs of young people on the move. This includes understanding the role of state and non-state stakeholders, the impact of laws and policies and, critically, the experiences of the young people themselves. We provide recommendations for immediate action, recommendations for programming to support young people on the move in the two towns that would reduce risk for young people in this area, and recommendations for longer term policy advocacy.
karnataka housing board schemes . all schemesnarinav14
The Karnataka government, along with the central government’s Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), offers various housing schemes to cater to the diverse needs of citizens across the state. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the major housing schemes available in the Karnataka housing board for both urban and rural areas in 2024.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Indira awas yojana housing scheme renamed as PMAYnarinav14
Indira Awas Yojana (IAY) played a significant role in addressing rural housing needs in India. It emerged as a comprehensive program for affordable housing solutions in rural areas, predating the government’s broader focus on mass housing initiatives.
AHMR is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed online journal created to encourage and facilitate the study of all aspects (socio-economic, political, legislative and developmental) of Human Mobility in Africa. Through the publication of original research, policy discussions and evidence research papers AHMR provides a comprehensive forum devoted exclusively to the analysis of contemporaneous trends, migration patterns and some of the most important migration-related issues.
How To Cultivate Community Affinity Throughout The Generosity JourneyAggregage
This session will dive into how to create rich generosity experiences that foster long-lasting relationships. You’ll walk away with actionable insights to redefine how you engage with your supporters — emphasizing trust, engagement, and community!
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, CBO’s Director of Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis, at the 16th Annual Meeting of the OECD Working Party of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions.
1. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
World
Oil
Outlook
2045
2020
Executive Summary
2.
3. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
World
Oil
Outlook
2045
2020
Executive Summary
4.
5. OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental organization, established in Baghdad, Iraq,
on 10–14 September 1960. The Organization comprises 13 Members: Algeria, Angola,
Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The
Organization has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria.
Download
OPEC WOO App
Access the
interactive version
Digital Access to the WOO:
an interactive user experience 24/7
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market
stability. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of
the many possible future challenges and opportunities for the oil industry. It is also a
channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other
stakeholders within the industry.
As part of OPEC’s ongoing efforts to improve user experience of the WOO and provide data
transparency, two digital interfaces are available: the OPEC WOO App and the interactive
version of the WOO.
The OPEC WOO App provides increased access to the publication’s vital analysis and
energy-related data. It is ideal for energy professionals, oil industry stakeholders,
policymakers, market analysts, academics and the media. The App’s search engine
enables users to easily find information, and its bookmarking function allows them to
store and review their favourite articles. Its versatility also allows users to compare
graphs and tables interactively, thereby maximizing information extraction and
empowering users to undertake their own analysis.
The interactive version of the WOO also provides the possibility to download specific
data and information, thereby enhancing user experience.
Available
for Android
and iOS
7. Acknowledgements
Secretary General, Chairman of the Editorial Board
Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo
Director, Research Division, Editor-in-Chief
Ayed S. Al-Qahtani
Head, Energy Studies Department, Editor
Abderrezak Benyoucef
Head, Public Relations & Information Department
Hasan Hafidh
Main contributors
Chapter 1: Key assumptions
Mohammad Alkazimi, Joerg Spitzy, Moufid Benmerabet, Roman Salo, Nadir Guerer, Irene Etiobhio, Jan Ban
Chapter 2: Energy demand
Erfan Vafaie Fard, Haris Aliefendic, Moufid Benmerabet, Mustapha Sugungun, Jan Ban, Julius Walker
Chapter 3: Oil demand
Jan Ban, Mustapha Sugungun, Moufid Benmerabet, Roman Salo
Chapter 4: Liquids supply
Julius Walker, Mohammad Alkazimi, Nadir Guerer
Chapter 5: Refining outlook
Haris Aliefendic, Moufid Benmerabet, Martin Tallett, Alanna Bock-Butler
Chapter 6: Oil movements
Haris Aliefendic, Martin Tallett, Alanna Bock-Butler
Chapter 7: Energy policy, climate change and sustainable development
Jan Ban, Eleni Kaditi, Daniel McKirdy, Irene Etiobhio
Chapter 8: Oil demand and supply uncertainties
Jan Ban, Julius Walker, Eleni Kaditi
The OPEC Secretariat is grateful for the kind contribution from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF),
featured in Chapter 2
Other contributors
Behrooz Baikalizadeh, Boshra AlSeiari, Mohammad Zarie Zare, Mohamed Mekerba, Hossein Hassani, Hassan
Balfakeih, Mohammad Ali Danesh, Yacine Sariahmed, Aziz Yahyai, Pantelis Christodoulides, Hannes Eichner,
Roland Kammerer, Klaus Stoeger, Mohammad Sattar, Zairul Arifin, Mihni Mihnev, Justinas Pelenis
Editorial Team
Timothy Spence, James Griffin
Design & Production Team
Carola Bayer, Andrea Birnbach
Editorial support
Menhal Alamri, Daniel McKirdy, Angelika Hauser, Amani Shebaro
OPEC’s Economic Commission Board (as of September 2020)
Achraf Benhassine, Ntika Mbiya Ricardo, Florencio Oyono Eneme Obono, Fernand Epigat, Afshin Javan,
Mohammed Saadoon Mohsin, Mohammad Khuder Al-Shatti, Taher M.O. Najah, Mele Kyari, Esam Alkhalifa,
Salem Hareb Al Mehairi, Ronny Romero
9. 1
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
This year’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is unlike any of its predecessors. When the groundwork for
this 14th
edition of the publication began, we were just becoming aware of a limited outbreak of a
new strain of coronavirus, COVID-19. Little did we know then that it would spread with unprece-
dented speed and force, causing unimaginable global humanitarian and economic consequences.
The pandemic’s impact and resulting containment efforts precipitated one of the most tumul-
tuous periods in the history of oil. The global industry faced an existential threat, especially in
April 2020, when oil demand collapsed and storage capacity came dangerously close to being
exhausted in some parts of the world.
Against this backdrop, producing the WOO 2020 presented major challenges. Uncertainty
about the pandemic’s duration complicated the task of assessing its potential longer-term
impact. With no modern parallel as a reference, it was difficult to take account of exceptional
factors, including the worldwide grounding of aviation fleets and wholesale national lock-
downs. The possibility of a ‘new normal’ in working and living patterns, and their potential to
alter energy needs going forward, presented a further challenge.
Nonetheless, our researchers and analysts have produced a comprehensive WOO that
explores the prospects for the global economy, energy demand, as well as oil supply and
demand in the upstream and downstream sectors. Furthermore, the WOO 2020 uses differ-
ent scenarios and sensitivities to explore the implications of the pandemic across the board.
For the first time, the WOO 2020 extends the outlook to 2045, creating a new Reference Case
for our projections. This provides the space to expand upon developments identified in past
years, such as expectations for an evolutionary shift of economic and energy demand growth
to developing countries, especially those in Asia and the Middle East & Africa.
With a longer perspective, we also see the growing importance of renewables and natural gas
in meeting future demand. Nonetheless, oil will continue to account for the largest share of
the energy mix by 2045, providing a stable foundation for addressing global energy needs
for years to come.
The WOO 2020 assesses the upstream, midstream and downstream investment needs of
the oil industry, especially in light of the setback caused by the pandemic-related market
shock. Sustainable investment is vital to support the technological innovations and capacity
development that will address the world’s growing thirst for energy.
10. 2
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Climate and environmental policies will continue to shape the future of energy, which is why
the WOO closely examines their potential impact on oil and other forms of energy in the com-
ing years. Closely linked to climate change is the urgent need to close the energy poverty
gap. COVID-19 is a stark reminder of the need to find inclusive and collaborative solutions to
these global challenges and to create a more resilient future for humankind.
Finally, this edition of the WOO coincides with two defining moments: the 60th
anniversary of
OPEC and the Organization’s pivotal leadership in response to the market shock stemming
from COVID-19.
OPEC, together with the non-OPEC oil-producing countries in the Declaration of Cooperation
(DoC), undertook the largest and longest production adjustments in the oil industry’s his-
tory, initially amounting to nearly 10% of global output. Building on more than three years
of a tested and proven framework for cooperation, this bold and decisive action helped
arrest the market’s freefall, supported the draw-down of unsustainable inventory levels
and boosted market confidence. Importantly, the DoC’s response has provided a platform to
support a global economic recovery.
In a year without precedent, we are very proud to bring you this exceptional edition of the WOO
with the hope that it enriches the global energy dialogue and inspires closer cooperation.
I would like to thank OPEC’s Member Countries for their unfailing support in making this flagship
annual publication possible. The entire staff of the OPEC Secretariat merit special recognition
for researching, writing, producing and distributing the WOO under extraordinary circumstances.
As we turn an important page in our history, OPEC’s commitment to securing an efficient,
economic and steady supply of oil to consuming countries, and providing essential support
to the global economy, is as unshakable today as it was when the Organization was founded
60 years ago.
Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo
Secretary General
13. 5
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
The World Oil Outlook (WOO) presents OPEC’s medium- to long-term analysis and
projections for the global economy, oil and energy demand, liquids supply and oil
refining, as well as related policy and technology matters. This includes analysis of
the energy industry’s various linkages and its shifting dynamics. The detailed review
in this Outlook includes breakdowns by region, sector and timeframe and is con-
sistent with the July 2020 edition of OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The
forecast period in this 14th edition of the Outlook was extended to 2045.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the sharpest downturn
in energy and oil demand in living memory
Since the publication of the WOO 2019 in November last year, the market has been
transformed by the unprecedented scale and reach of the COVID-19 pandemic. What
started at the beginning of this year as allegedly another SARS-like epidemic of 2003 to
2004 soon became a major pandemic, affecting countries around the globe and leading
to the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
OPEC and its partners in the DoC took the bold move to stabilize oil prices
and to rebalance oil markets
Faced with the COVID-19 challenge, OPEC Member Countries and other participants
in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) took the bold move in April 2020 to collectively
adjust down production over a two-year period, starting with almost 10 million barrels
per day (mb/d), or around 10% of global supply, which has helped put oil markets on a
path to rebalance.
The COVID-19-induced recession and extension of the forecast period to
2045 have brought average long-term global GDP growth down to 2.9% p.a.
The overarching challenge of COVID-19 is expected to impair the growth rates in
almost all economies over the medium-term. The average Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) growth rate will stand at 0.7% per annum (p.a.)
in the period from 2019 to 2025, compared to the pre-COVID-19 projected growth level
of 2.1% p.a.
For non-OECD countries, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.4% p.a.
on average during the same period, which is more than 1 percentage point (pp) lower
compared to past projections. In the long-term, incremental GDP growth will be mainly
driven by non-OECD countries. These countries are expected to grow by 3.7% p.a. on
14. 6
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Source: OPEC.
Distribution of the global economy in 2019 and 2045 %
Figure 1.6
mboe/d
Width: 108 mm
Height: 50 mm
15
19
12
17
4
7
24
19
12
10
16
8
17
20
2045
2019
OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania China
Other Asia India Rest of the World
OECD Non-OECD
average between 2019 and 2045, largely on the back of improving labour productivity,
even as the pace of GDP growth begins to slow.
Source: OPEC.
Long-term annual real GDP growth rates % p.a.
The global economy in 2045 will be more than double the size it was in 2019
Global GDP is projected to rise from around $121 trillion in 2019 to more than $258 tril-
lion in 2045 based on 2011 purchasing power parity (2011 PPP). China and India alone
will account for 40% of global GDP in 2045. The share of OECD countries will decline
to 31% in 2045 compared to around 43% in 2019. OECD Americas is forecast to remain
the region with the highest GDP per capita, followed by OECD Asia Oceania and OECD
2019–2025 2025–2035 2035–2045 2019–2045
OECD 0.7 1.9 1.9 1.6
Non-OECD 3.4 4.2 3.5 3.7
World 2.3 3.3 3.0 2.9
15. 7
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Europe. The lowest GDP per capita is expected for the regional grouping of the Middle
East & Africa. This will be the only region where the average income is less than $10,000
(2011 PPP) in 2045.
The global population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2045
The global population is expected to increase by 1.7 billion throughout the forecast
period, reaching 9.5 billion people by 2045 compared to around 7.7 billion in 2019. The
disparity in population growth between the OECD and non-OECD is a major feature of
these projections, as almost 96% of the growth is foreseen in non-OECD regions. The
global working-age population (15–64) is estimated to grow by close to 1 billion over the
period from 2019 to 2045. The share of the global working-age population is estimated
to decline from 65% in 2019 to 63% in 2045. In addition, 66% of the world’s population is
projected to come from urban regions by 2045.
Policies relating to energy demand and supply are expected to become
more stringent over the forecast period
Policy instruments that primarily target objectives of the Paris Agreement will continue
to drive a transition to renewable energy sources and a reduction in greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. While many countries are notionally signed up to a global, collective
effort to combat climate change, the majority of policies relating to energy demand and
supply will continue to be set and enforced at the national level, resulting in continued
disparity in the scope of policy ambitions among countries and regions. This Outlook
takes into account enacted policies in many countries, with a careful assessment of
potential implications, as well as indicated targets of policymakers that signal the direc-
tion of future changes.
Technological advancements are set to shape the global energy landscape
Electricity generation, which currently relies heavily on fossil fuels, will see a rising
penetration of renewable sources such as wind and solar. The development of blue
hydrogen, which could be of interest for future oil applications, is also under way and
is reliant on the expansion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and
utilization (CCU). For a more innovative approach to heating buildings and producing
hot water for residential consumers, heat pumps offer an option. Internal combus-
tion engines (ICEs) will remain dominant in the road transportation sector for the fore-
seeable future. Nevertheless, electric mobility will gradually penetrate the car fleet to
significant levels.
16. 8
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Despite the huge drop in 2020, global primary energy demand is forecast to
continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by 72 mboe/d
in the period to 2045
Global primary energy demand is forecast to increase from 289 million barrels of oil
equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2019 to 361 mboe/d in 2045. This represents an average
growth rate of 0.9% p.a. over the forecast period. In this period, energy demand in non-
OECD countries is expected to increase by 76.5 mboe/d, while demand in the OECD is
estimated to drop by around 4.4 mboe/d.
In this regard, India, China and other developing countries (DCs) with increasing pop-
ulations and high economic growth play a key role in increasing energy demand while
developed nations in the OECD are exerting more of their efforts on energy efficiency
and low-carbon technologies. Consequently, nearly half of total energy demand growth is
expected to come from India and China.
Total primary energy demand per region, 2019–2045
Source: OPEC.
Levels
mboe/d
Growth
mboe/d
Growth
% p.a.
Share
%
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
2019–
2045
2019–
2045
2019 2045
OECD 111.1 108.7 109.0 108.4 107.4 106.7 –4.4 –0.2 38.4 29.5
Non-OECD 178.1 194.3 212.9 229.8 244.9 254.6 76.5 1.4 61.6 70.5
World 289.1 303.0 321.9 338.1 352.3 361.3 72.1 0.9 100.0 100.0
Oil will remain the fuel with the largest share of the global energy mix until
2045
Assuming that the COVID-19 pandemic is largely overcome by next year, oil demand is
projected to partly recover in 2021. Healthy growth rates are expected especially over
the medium-term horizon, resulting in oil demand reaching the level of 94.4 mboe/d in
2025 and further progressing to 99.5 mboe/d in 2045. In 2019, oil represented for more
than 31% of global energy demand and is projected to remain the largest contributor to
the energy mix to 2045, accounting for more than 27%, followed by gas (about 25%) and
coal (almost 20%).
17. 9
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Total primary energy demand by fuel type, 2019–2045
Levels
mboe/d
Growth
mboe/d
Growth
% p.a.
Share
%
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
2019–
2045
2019–
2045
2019 2045
Oil 91.0 94.4 97.7 99.3 99.7 99.5 8.5 0.3 31.5 27.5
Coal 77.1 75.1 75.1 74.3 72.8 71.0 –6.1 –0.3 26.7 19.7
Gas 66.9 69.8 76.2 82.2 87.3 91.2 24.3 1.2 23.1 25.3
Nuclear 14.4 16.1 17.5 19.1 20.8 22.1 7.7 1.7 5.0 6.1
Hydro 7.3 8.1 8.8 9.5 10.2 10.5 3.2 1.4 2.5 2.9
Biomass 26.4 28.9 31.0 32.9 34.6 35.5 9.1 1.2 9.1 9.8
Other renewables 6.0 10.6 15.5 20.8 26.8 31.4 25.4 6.6 2.1 8.7
Total 289.1 303.0 321.9 338.1 352.3 361.3 72.1 0.9 100.0 100.0
Source: OPEC.
Natural gas will be the fastest-growing fossil fuel between 2019 and 2045
Global gas demand is expected to continue expanding as a result of rising levels of
urbanization, growth in industrial demand and greater competitiveness over coal
in the power generation mix. Global demand for gas is expected to increase from
nearly 67 mboe/d in 2019 to 91 mboe/d in 2045, resulting in natural gas being the
second-largest contributor to the primary energy mix.
Coal will be the only primary fuel for which demand declines between 2019
and 2045
Coal is currently still the second major fuel in the primary energy mix but it is los-
ing its share to other energy sources. All over the globe, many coal-fired power plants
are being displaced by renewables and gas. Demand for coal is projected to decline at
the average rate of 0.3% p.a. within the 2019–2045 Outlook period. There are two main
reasons for this change. The first is a result of shutdowns and replacement of coal-
fired power plants in the OECD region. The second is the introduction of more energy-
efficient technologies in developing regions as carbon abatement is prioritized. Despite
the global decline, coal demand in India is expected to grow between 2019 and 2045 at
a pace of 2.6% p.a. on average.
18. 10
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
‘Other renewables’ retain the position of fastest growing source of energy in
both relative and absolute terms
Between 2019 and 2045, ‘other renewables’ – combining mainly solar, wind and geo-
thermal energy – will grow by 6.6% p.a. on average, which is significantly faster than
any other source of energy. This will result in substantial growth in absolute terms for
‘other renewables’ of more than 25 mboe/d, which is more than the increase in demand
for gas (24 mboe/d) over the same period.
Within the forecast period, growth in electricity generation is set to continue
at rates much higher compared to overall primary energy demand
Rising electricity demand is the result of economic development, population growth and
the expanding use of electricity in areas such as digitalization, cooling and transporta-
tion, as well as greater electricity access in developing regions. Primary energy demand
is expected to increase at an average rate of 0.9% p.a. between 2019 and 2045 while, at
the same time, electricity generation is expected to increase by 2.2% p.a. on average. In
line with expectations for economic and population development, the majority of growth
in power generation will come from developing countries.
Oil demand growth is expected to recover during the medium-term
After recovering from a turbulent 2020 in the medium-term, global oil demand is pro-
jected to continue growing at relatively high annual rates to reach a level of 103.7 mb/d
by 2025. Annual increments will be relatively high, especially in 2022 and 2023, at 2.1
mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. There are two main reasons for this expectation. The
first relates to a return to pre-COVID-19 economic growth rates during these years,
especially in the major developing countries. The second is linked to demand ‘catch-
ing up’, especially in the sectors affected the most by restrictions during the COVID-19
crisis. These include the aviation, road transport and industry sectors. The rest of the
medium-term will be marked by further ‘normalization’ of demand growth in which
longer-term trends and factors will come to the forefront, leading towards moderate
levels of annual incremental demand of slightly above 1 mb/d.
In the long-term, oil demand is projected to reach 109.1 mb/d by 2045
At the global level, oil demand is expected to increase by almost 10 mb/d over the long-
term, rising from 99.7 mb/d in 2019 to 109.3 mb/d in 2040 and to 109.1 mb/d in 2045.
This represents a downward revision of more than 1 mb/d compared to the 2040 lev-
els projected in the WOO 2019. The more pronounced effect of the COVID-19 pandemic
19. 11
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
on oil demand in the OECD has further exacerbated the divergent trends between the
OECD and non-OECD regions. OECD demand is expected to plateau around 47 mb/d
between 2022 and 2025 before it starts a longer-term decline towards 35 mb/d by 2045.
In contrast, demand will continue growing in the non-OECD region. Driven by an expand-
ing middle class, high population growth rates and stronger economic growth potential,
oil demand in this group of countries is expected to increase by 22.5 mb/d between
2019 and 2045, and reach 74.3 mb/d in 2045. The largest contributor to this incremen-
tal demand is anticipated to be India, adding some 6.3 mb/d between 2019 and 2045.
2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Growth
2019–2045
OECD 47.9 43.0 46.8 44.6 41.5 38.0 34.8 –13.1
Non-OECD 51.8 47.8 56.9 62.6 67.4 71.2 74.3 22.5
World 99.7 90.7 103.7 107.2 108.9 109.3 109.1 9.4
Oil demand in the Reference Case, 2019–2045 mb/d
Source: OPEC.
Global oil demand will plateau during the second half of the Outlook period
Considering strong fluctuations during the medium-term period, average incremen-
tal demand to 2025 is projected at 0.7 mb/d p.a. A comparable rate of growth is also
expected in the period to 2030. This, however, will change quite significantly during the
next five-year period as the decline in the OECD will accelerate and demand growth in
the non-OECD starts to decelerate. Global oil demand will grow at relatively healthy
rates during the first part of the forecast period before demand begins to plateau over a
relatively long period during the second half.
Oil demand in road transportation will continue to dominate the sectoral
breakdown but the largest growth will come from petrochemicals
In 2019, road transportation represented 45% of global demand at 44.4 mb/d. Demand
in this sector was hit hard in 2020 due to COVID-19 lockdowns, losing more than 4 mb/d
compared to 2019. Over the medium- and long-term, however, oil demand in the road
transportation sector is expected to continue growing and reach a level of 47 mb/d in 2045.
20. 12
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Oil demand in the aviation sector was most affected by COVID-19 restrictions in rela-
tive terms, declining by almost 50% during 2020 on an annual basis. Demand for avia-
tion is projected to partly recover in 2021 and will continue growing thereafter, though it
Average annual oil demand increments by region, 2019–2045
Source: OPEC.
Figure 3.3
oe/d
–1.0
–0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2019–2025 2025–2030 2030–2035 2035–2040 2040–2045
mb/d
OECD
China
India
Other non-OECD
World
Oil demand growth by sector, 2019–2045
Source: OPEC.
Figure 3.17
oe/d
99.7
109.1
91
94
97
100
103
106
109
112
Demand
in 2019
Growth in
transportation
Growth in
industry
Growth in
other sectors
Demand
in 2045
mb/d
Others 1.3
Aviation 2.8
Road 2.6
Other industry 0.3
Petrochemicals
3.7
Electricity gen. –1.1
Resid./Comm./Agr. 0.5
21. 13
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
will likely only reach 2019 levels in 2023–2024. Despite this temporary decline, aviation
demand is expected to grow significantly over the long-term. However, the petrochemi-
cal sector is projected to be the largest single contributor to incremental oil demand
over the forecast period, growing by 3.7 mb/d.
Rising penetration of alternative vehicles will limit oil demand growth in the
road transportation sector
In the years to come, road transportation is forecast to witness a strong decoupling
between oil demand on the one hand, and commercial transport services and the
number of vehicles on the road on the other. This will primarily result from efficiency
improvements driven by technological developments, the tightening of energy poli-
cies, and an increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), natural gas vehicles
(NGVs) and to some extent hydrogen-based vehicles.
Of the total of 2.6 billion vehicles on the road by 2045, around 430 million will be
EVs, clearly constituting the second-largest group after internal combustion engine
(ICE) vehicles. The share of EVs is projected to reach around 5% in 2030, 13% in 2040
and more than 16% in 2045. NGVs will number around 120 million by then but are
overtaken by EVs around 2030.
Composition of the global vehicle fleet, 2019–2045
Source: OPEC.
Figure 3.22
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045
Fuel cell vehicles
Electric vehicles
Natural gas vehicles
Hybrid electric vehicles
Conventional
Share of electric vehicle (RHS)
Share of Alternative fuel vehicles (RHS)
million %
22. 14
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Therefore, even as oil demand related to passenger cars grows at a healthy pace at
the beginning of the forecast period, it starts to plateau within the next ten years and
declines during the second part of the forecast period. This is mainly attributable to
powertrain substitution and improving efficiency of passenger car fleets, factors that
are present to a much lesser extent in the commercial vehicle segment. In the lat-
ter, continued GDP growth, especially in developing countries, will provide support for
the ongoing expansion of the commercial vehicle fleet. This, in turn, will keep overall
demand in the road transport sector at a relatively stable level of around 47 mb/d.
Non-OPEC liquids supply to recover from 2021
On the supply side, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in a halving of
oil prices, led to an historic downward production adjustment of nearly 10 mb/d by DoC
participating countries. Production elsewhere was shut-in after it became uneconomic,
including some 2–3 mb/d of US crude. These measures have helped to return stability
to oil markets as they gradually rebalance.
Following an expected sharp decline of 3.3 mb/d in 2020, its first annual drop since
2016, non-OPEC liquids supply will grow modestly in 2021 and pick up momentum in
the following years, thus increasing from 65 mb/d in 2019 to 70.7 mb/d in 2025. Medium-
term recovery is driven mainly by Brazil, which grows by 1.7 mb/d, the US (+1.4 mb/d),
Norway (+0.8 mb/d), Guyana (+0.7 mb/d) and Kazakhstan (+0.5 mb/d).
US tight oil will grow until around 2030, but not as much as previously
expected
Despite being the most affected by shut-ins due to its inherent responsiveness to price,
US tight oil is expected to recover quickly as market conditions improve, and will grow
by 2.8 mb/d to 14.5 mb/d in the medium-term. It will continue to increase modestly
thereafter, plateauing at 15.8 mb/d around 2030, but is not expected to reach heights
projected in previous Outlooks.
Non-OPEC supply declines again in the long-term; OPEC liquids to fill the gap
Only a small number of non-OPEC producers show meaningful supply growth post-
2025, including Canada, Qatar, Kazakhstan and Guyana. Most other non-OPEC produc-
ers see output stagnate or decline. As such, non-OPEC supply declines from a peak
of 71.8 mb/d in 2027 to 65.4 mb/d by 2045, and thus is broadly flat when comparing
2019 and 2045. OPEC liquids will increase from 33.8 mb/d in 2019 to 43.9 mb/d in 2045,
23. 15
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
resulting in Member Countries’ share of global liquids rising from 34% in 2019 to 40%
in 2045.
* The breakdown of non-OPEC supply does not include processing gains.
Source: OPEC.
Long-term global liquids supply outlook mb/d
2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Change
2019–2045
OECD 30.0 28.5 32.5 32.3 30.8 29.1 27.7 –2.3
of which: US 18.4 17.0 19.8 20.3 19.1 17.7 16.6 –1.8
of which: tight liquids 11.7 10.9 14.5 15.8 15.4 14.3 13.3 1.6
Non-OECD 32.8 31.2 35.9 36.7 36.5 35.7 34.7 2.0
Processing gains 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 0.7
Non-OPEC 65.0 61.8 70.7 71.5 69.9 67.6 65.4 0.4
of which*: crude 45.9 43.5 50.0 48.9 46.0 43.0 40.3 –5.6
NGLs 10.5 10.3 11.3 12.5 13.0 13.2 13.2 2.7
global biofuels 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 1.0
other liquids 3.8 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.4 1.6
Total OPEC liquids 33.8 30.7 33.2 35.9 39.2 41.9 43.9 10.1
World 98.9 92.4 103.9 107.4 109.1 109.5 109.3 10.4
Cumulative oil-related investment requirements over the long-term will be
$12.6 trillion
Possible downside risks to the global supply outlook could stem from reduced
upstream investment, which is forecast to decline by over 30% in 2020, but will recover
to 2019 levels by 2024/2025, according to Rystad Energy. To meet global oil demand,
future upstream spending will need to average $380 billion p.a. over the long-term.
Cumulatively, this means $9.9 trillion (in 2020 dollars) will be required. Added to
$1.5 trillion for the downstream, and $1.2 trillion in the midstream, cumulative oil-
related investment requirements over the long-term will be $12.6 trillion.
24. 16
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Distillation capacity additions during the medium-term reach 5.2 mb/d,
mostly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific
Around 3.8 mb/d of new refining capacity is projected to come online by 2022, with a sig-
nificant slowdown in additions from 2023 onward. In 2025, expected additions are below
0.2 mb/d. Over 80% of additions by 2025 will be located in the Asia-Pacific (2.1 mb/d), the
Middle East (1.3 mb/d) and Africa (0.8 mb/d), driven by oil demand growth and intentions
to increase refined product exports.
Crude distillation capacity is expected to increase by 15.6 mb/d until 2045,
with a significant slowdown in the rate of required additions
Following the slowdown of demand growth over the course of the forecast period, the
annual rate of required additions drops to an average level of 350 thousand barrels per
day (tb/d) between 2040 and 2045, down from 0.9 mb/d between 2020 and 2025. This
Outlook confirms the trend of refining capacity increasingly migrating to new demand
centres in developing countries. Additions of 13 mb/d will be located in the Asia-Pacific
(7.2 mb/d), the Middle East (2.8 mb/d) and Africa (2.9 mb/d). At the same time, devel-
oped regions are likely to see only minor additions as demand in these regions declines.
In terms of secondary capacity, around 7.9 mb/d of new conversions, 17.7 mb/d of des-
ulphurization additions and 5 mb/d of octane units are projected to be commissioned
between 2020 and 2045.
Distillation capacity additions, 2019–2045
Source: OPEC.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
US &
Canada
Latin
America
Africa Europe Russia &
Caspian
Middle
East
China Other Asia-
Pacific
mb/d
2040–2045
2035–2040
2030–2035
2025–2030
2020–2025
Figure 5.6
mboe/d
Width: 135.6 mm
Height: 65 mm
25. 17
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
The sudden demand drop caused by the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in
a market imbalance between available capacity and the call-on-refining
Relative to 2019, the required refining capacity is expected to plunge in 2020 due to the
large demand drop. The resulting gap between potential (based on refinery additions)
and required refining capacity is estimated at around 8.5 mb/d in 2020. The gap is pro-
jected to narrow to levels between 4 mb/d and 5 mb/d in 2021 and 2022, signalling a
period of higher competition with subdued refining margins. In the long-term, the mar-
ket imbalance is increasingly visible in developed regions with refinery utilization rates
declining significantly. Consequently, closures of around 6 mb/d in the long-term (on
top of assumed closures of 2.5 mb/d in the medium-term) are estimated as necessary,
in order to stabilize utilization rates at levels around 80%.
Global crude and condensate trade between major regions remains stable
between 2019 and 2030 at around 38.5 mb/d and increases gradually to 41
mb/d by 2045
Crude and condensate trade by 2030 is expected to be dominated by higher flows from
the US & Canada as well as Latin America, in line with higher supply. At the same time,
exports from Africa decline as domestic use of crude increases. Middle East exports
drop from 18.5 mb/d in 2019 to below 17 mb/d in 2025 due to lower demand for OPEC
Global crude and condensates exports by origin*, 2019–2045
* Only trade between major regions is considered.
Source: OPEC.
Figure 6.5
/d
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
mb/d
Asia-PacificMiddle EastRussia & CaspianEuropeAfricaLatin AmericaUS & Canada
26. 18
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
liquids and higher domestic use, but recover by 2030. After 2030, crude and conden-
sate flows from the Middle East increase to 23.5 mb/d in 2045, along with modest export
growth from the Russia & Caspian region. Other regions are projected to see lower
crude and condensate exports due to declining supply (e.g. the US) and higher domestic
use (Latin America and Africa).
Asia-Pacific remains the most important crude oil importing region
throughout the forecast period, with imports rising by more than 6 mb/d
Crude and condensate flows between the Middle East and Asia-Pacific remain the most
important trade link, with volumes increasing from around 15 mb/d in 2019 to nearly
20 mb/d in 2045. However, other suppliers are expected to ship more volumes to the
Asia-Pacific as well, such as the US & Canada, Latin America (especially between 2025
and 2035) and Russia & Caspian. The second most important importing region, Europe,
is likely to see a significant drop in crude and condensate imports, declining from 10
mb/d in 2019 to around 7.5 mb/d in 2045, driven by shrinking demand and lower refin-
ery throughputs.
International cooperation could allow a more coherent, balanced and inte-
grated approach for realizing the Paris Agreement goals in the context of
sustainable development
The Paris Agreement stipulates the relationship that climate change actions, responses
and impacts could have with equitable access to sustainable development. Recognizing
the specific needs and special circumstances of developing countries, the Agreement
aims to strengthen the global response to the challenges of climate change by giving
consideration to sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. The COVID-
19 pandemic makes this more urgent, especially in developing countries, which feel
the effects acutely. For the world to emerge from this crisis, a surge in international
solidarity and cooperation is needed to achieve a more sustainable, inclusive and resil-
ient future. Energy access for all is an action area that could be leveraged to facilitate
the coherent implementation of climate action and sustainable development objectives.
Enhanced collaboration and identification of mitigation options are vital to
address the challenge of climate change
While countries strive to address the challenge of climate change, governments
assess and implement different mitigation policies and measures. Analyses show that
there is no one-size-fits-all approach to mitigating climate change. Energy-exporting
27. 19
Executive Summary 2020
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
developing countries are likely to experience significant socio-economic consequences
due to mitigation action and response measures, particularly in those countries with
limited access to financing and technology. In view of such vulnerabilities, it is essential
to establish or restore the very foundations of resilience and stability in these societies,
identifying mitigation options that could lead to ‘win-win’ solutions with environmental
and socio-economic benefits while enhancing collaboration among countries.
Future oil demand and supply is clouded by many uncertainties
In addition to the challenge of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, the related eco-
nomic crisis and changing consumer behaviour have added additional depth to existing
uncertainties surrounding future prospects for oil demand and supply. Some of these
are explored in detail in sensitivity cases developed in this Outlook. To address the issue
of economic development, two alternative cases were considered, indicating that the
range of oil demand in 2045 could be as wide as 8 mb/d. Moreover, adoption of more
stringent energy policies and faster penetration of energy-efficient technologies could
expand this range to 10 mb/d. On the supply side, broadly similar ranges of uncertainty
with regard to medium- and long-term non-OPEC prospects result from sensitivities
around the resource base, technology, the role of policy and upstream investment, in
addition to paths for post-pandemic recovery.
28.
29.
30. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Helferstorferstrasse 17
A-1010 Vienna, Austria
www.opec.org
ISBN 978-3-9504890-1-9