Uploaded byWolfgang Lenz
On scenario thinking
This document discusses scenario thinking and scenario planning. Scenario thinking can be used for setting strategic direction, catalyzing bold action, accelerating collaborative learning, and alignment and visioning. Basic principles of scenario thinking include re-perception, understanding that the status quo is not an option, understanding and managing uncertainty, taking a long view, and using outside-in thinking and multiple perspectives. For scenarios to be useful and credible they must be relevant, coherent, plausible, important, and transparent. Scenario planning involves systems analysis, retrospective analysis, analyzing actors' strategies, scenario drafting, identifying key issues and forces, determining driving forces, selecting scenario logics or rationales, fleshing out scenarios, and considering implications.
On scenario thinking
- 1. what if …… onscenario thinking
- 2. scenario thinking why & when? • setting strategic direction • catalyze bold action • accelerate collaborative learning • alignment & visioning
- 3. scenarios basic principles • re-perception • the status quo is not an option • understand and manage uncertainty • the long view • outside-in thinking • multiple perspectives
- 4. scenarios conditions for success • openness for multiple perspectives & for challenging common assumptions • positioned to change in a meaningful way • have a well-positioned leader for the process • willingness to commit the necessary resources
- 5. on scenario building 5 conditions for scenarios to be useful and credible: • relevance • coherence • plausibility • importance • transparency
- 6. scenarios & strategies attitudestoward corresponding corresponding the future scenarios strategies passive none go with the flow reactive none adaptive preactive trend-based preventive proactive desirable innovative alternatives
- 7. scenario planning theusual steps are: • systems analysis • retrospective analysis • actors‘ strategies • scenario drafting
- 8. scenario planning • identifythe focal issue, question or decision • pinpoint the key forces in the micro-environment • determine the driving forces (drivers) in the macro- environment • rank by order of importance and uncertainty • choose the „logics“ or rationale behind the scenarios (axes) • flesh out the scenarios • consider the implications of those scenarios • select the „signposts“ or leading indicators
- 9. scenarios • Michel Godet:Creating Futures. Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2001) • What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits (GBN 2004)