This document discusses scenario thinking and scenario planning. Scenario thinking can be used for setting strategic direction, catalyzing bold action, accelerating collaborative learning, and alignment and visioning. Basic principles of scenario thinking include re-perception, understanding that the status quo is not an option, understanding and managing uncertainty, taking a long view, and using outside-in thinking and multiple perspectives. For scenarios to be useful and credible they must be relevant, coherent, plausible, important, and transparent. Scenario planning involves systems analysis, retrospective analysis, analyzing actors' strategies, scenario drafting, identifying key issues and forces, determining driving forces, selecting scenario logics or rationales, fleshing out scenarios, and considering implications.

1. what if ……
on scenario thinking

2. scenario thinking
why & when?
• setting strategic direction
• catalyze bold action
• accelerate collaborative learning
• alignment & visioning

3. scenarios
basic principles
• re-perception
• the status quo is not an option
• understand and manage uncertainty
• the long view
• outside-in thinking
• multiple perspectives

4. scenarios
conditions for success
• openness for multiple perspectives & for
challenging common assumptions
• positioned to change in a meaningful way
• have a well-positioned leader for the process
• willingness to commit the necessary
resources

5. on scenario building
5 conditions for scenarios
to be useful and credible:
• relevance
• coherence
• plausibility
• importance
• transparency

6. scenarios & strategies
attitudes toward corresponding corresponding
the future scenarios strategies
passive none go with the flow
reactive none adaptive
preactive trend-based preventive
proactive desirable innovative
alternatives

7. scenario planning
the usual steps are:
• systems analysis
• retrospective analysis
• actors‘ strategies
• scenario drafting

8. scenario planning
• identify the focal issue, question or decision
• pinpoint the key forces in the micro-environment
• determine the driving forces (drivers) in the macro-
environment
• rank by order of importance and uncertainty
• choose the „logics“ or rationale behind the
scenarios (axes)
• flesh out the scenarios
• consider the implications of those scenarios
• select the „signposts“ or leading indicators

9. scenarios
• Michel Godet: Creating Futures. Scenario
Planning as a Strategic Management Tool
(2001)
• What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for
Nonprofits (GBN 2004)