This is the presentation for the book launch that took place in Phoenix at Changing Hands Bookstore located on 300 W. Camelback Rd. Scenario Planning was developed in 1961 and found many applications. The author created a 5-step method to help readers create their own scenarios. The book covers the technique and three different business cases: a moral dilemma in the funding for Stem Cell research, a big problem in the need to deploy more renewable energy solutions to fight climate change and a current crisis - the conflict in Ukraine.

1. Copyright Rom Gayoso©
How To Win In Every Scenario:
Phoenix Launch @ChangingHands

2. Agenda
 Intro
 Learning Objectives
 Context
 Scenario Planning Process
 Summary

3. 3
Introduction: Why do I write?
• Wilkes University: economics students; strategy
• Grand Canyon University: economics students
• SCIP: The SCIP Board challenges all of us CI
practitioners to step up to the plate to tackle intractable
problems – or those that refuse to yield
• WFS: Challenges us to work to build better futures

4. 4
Learning Objectives
In this presentation you will learn:
– 5-Step Process designed to combine quantitative,
qualitative methods and data visualization tools to
help us create our own scenarios.
– We will also discuss scenarios for a complicated
moral dilemma from Bioethics (Funding for Stem-Cell
Research), for tackling a hot topic in energy
(Renewable Energy & Carbon Emissions), and a
conflict.

5. 5
Context: Strategic Planning
 The literature (Drucker, 1995; Hughes, 2005; Mintzberg,
1994; Porter, 1980; Shapiro, 1989) defines Strategic
Planning as a set of deliberate actions designed with some
specific desired outcome in mind.
 The set of actions is supported by specific mile stones,
which augmented by several techniques, allows
management to exert command and control on the
organization through the creation of a road map.
 The main function this road map is to formalize the
process and steps the organization will take in order to turn
management’s goals into a series of actionable items
designed to support the mission and corporate objectives
Road Map = Strategic Plan

6. 6
Environmental Challenges
 Cognitive dissonance
– Stahl & Grigsby (1992): The external environment is so complex, there are so
many stimuli for one to process, it becomes virtually impossible for
management to capture the essence of the situation.
 Pace of technological change
– Drejer (2004): Not only it is difficult to gauge the impact of technological
change, but also the pace of change is increasing rapidly (technological
turbulence)
 Fragmentation
– Fletcher (2006): Consumers demand increasingly higher degrees of product
customization
 Demand uncertainty
– McCarthy & Mentzer (2006): The increased market fragmentation led to a
situation where there are so many possible product variations to keep track, it is
difficult for any one to keep track of all targets
 Regulation
– Dreyer (2004) and Roney (2003): One of the most important factors of
environmental uncertainty is linked to the actions of governments

7. 7
Scenario Planning Principles
• Scenarios are complete stories: logical and
compelling
• Scenario is a tool to inform decision makers and
timely influence their decision making
• The importance of building scenario is to
improve managers’ mindsets and environment
knowledge
• Scenarios must include indicators so that
managers can track how the future is evolving

8. 8
Macro data
• Demographic
• Industry specific
• Political
developments
• Globalization
• Cultural
• Legal
Sources:
• BEA
• Census
• Industry Assoc.
• Market Research
firms
• D&B
• Edgar
• Frost&Sullivan
• Trade shows
• Reports
• Conferences
Identify
• Players
• Competitors
• Suppliers
• Customers
Tools:
• Porters
• SWOT
2
Collect &
Analyze
Competitive
data
Collect
Macro Data
1
Composition of
the Team
Building the
Scenario:
Packaging
Value Add
3
Crunching
• Logical
• Consistent with
business challenges
• Reflect alternative
realities
• Must be credible
• Align with Corp.
culture or not
• Delivered in
consistent phases
within the planning
cycle (the business
processes)
• Must have high level
owner/ evangelist
• Must have clear
audience/ forum
Winning
• Linking alternative
realities to strategy
• Would existing
strategy still work in
an alternative
reality?
• Identify gaps, risks
and opportunities
• Develop risk
mitigation strategies
Scenario Planning Process: Steps
Team composition
Team skill set:
• God parent/
evangelist
• Veterans
• Marketing
• Technical
• Economist/
Econometricians
• Manufacturing
• Social Scientist
4 5

9. Creating Scenarios
 Use an even number of alternatives
to avoid a middle ground answer
 Typically 4 – 6 alternatives, rarely
more
– “Stars Align”  all goes well
– “Sky is Falling”  all goes bad
– Variations on a theme / Shades of gray

10. Scenario Example 1:Stem Cell
Research
 Potential Benefits
– Stem Cells hold the promise to alleviate the
suffering of Millions of people who suffer
degenerative diseases
 Costs
– In order to harvest the Stems - using current
technology – we need to destroy the cells
 Dilemma
– What is more important?
• Protect the sanctity of life
• Alleviate human suffering

11. Scenarios for Stem Cell Research
Use New Embryos Highly Desirable
Public Funding Research Domestically
Stars Align
I love it!

12. Scenarios for Stem Cell Research
Limited New Embryos Desirable
Some Public Funding Research Domestically
Very Favorable
I Like it.

13. Scenarios for Stem Cell Research
No New Embryos
Somewhat Desirable, But
Questionable
Limited Public Funding Research Domestically
Low Certainty
It is OK

14. Scenarios for Stem Cell Research
No Embryos Morally Unethical
No Public Funding Research Abroad
Sky is Falling
No Way!

15. Scenario Example 2: Renewable
Energy
Problem Statement: Energy Consumption in the World in ‘07 and in ‘35
Is the Future that different from the Past?
“low oil prices” “high oil prices”
Source: US EIA

16. Renewable Energy Scenarios
Drivers

17. Renewable Energy Scenarios
Scenarios

18. Scenario Drivers: Ukraine Crisis

19. Ukraine Scenarios: Example 1
 WIMPs
– SI: Russia
– B: not respected
– EG: Rubles for sttlement, business as
usual
– C: “weak” oligarch in power aligned
with Russia, civil unrest in the West

20. Ukraine Scenarios: Example 2
 Polonaise
– SI: West, EU
– B: not respected
– EG: EU, IMF funds flow, but antagonism
with Moscow means low growth
– C: “weak” oligarch, “weak” federation
in power aligned with the West, civil
unrest in the East

21. Alternative Scenarios: “Dark”
 Archduke Ferdinand Moment
– Catalystic event causes conflict to
expand: Patriarch Kirill, Poroshenko,
Putin or Lavrov
 Mayonnaise, not Polonaise
– “weak” oligarch uses force to settle
disputes, rampant HR abuses, not
decisive
– Escalation of commitment
– Polish border event

22. Telling The Story With Images
 Book cover
 Introducing Ms.
Snyder

23. Ms. Snyder’s Work: Tapestry

24. 24
Conclusion
 We saw how we can tackle big problems
 We discussed a system to help us
methodically address complex challenges
 We considered three cases: Stem Cell
Research, Renewable Energy and Ukraine
Crisis
Scenario Planning is KEY!

25. Thank You!
 My family for giving me time to write
 Changing Hands for supporting local writers
 Testimonials: Dr. Liuzzo, Dr. Thomas
 You can reach me any time you need!
– Email:
phoenixeconomist@gmail.com
– Blog:
http://phoenixeconomist.blogspot.com/
– Author’s Site:
http://phoenixeconomist.wix.com/scenario
– Graphic Artist’s Site:
http://shaynasnyder23.wix.com/artbyshayna