Session 2 presentation by Roland Geyer

1. 1
Synthetic Polymers 1950-2017
Roland Geyer, PhD, Dipl.-Phys.
Bren School of Environmental Science and Management
University of California at Santa Barbara
https://rolandgeyer.com
Bonnie Monteleone

2. 2
Source: The Future of Petrochemicals, International Energy Agency, 2018
Global production of select materials, global GDP, 1971 – 2015

3. 3
Global production of select materials, GDP, CO2 emissions 1990 – 2017
Sources: CDIAC, IAI, USGS, World Bank, WSA, Geyer

4. 4
Use
Global top-down material flow analysis for 1950-2017
Production
Fate
Waste
generation
• Mass-balanced stock and flow modeling
• Use lognormal distributions to model the use phase
• Use weighted regional averages to derive global values

5. 5
Plastic production

6. 6
2050: 800 Mt
Global annual primary polymer resin production in Mt
Source: Plastics Europe

7. 7
2050: 230 Mt
Global annual primary polymer fiber production in Mt
Source: The Fiber Year, PCI Wood Mackenzie

8. 8
2050: 1,100 Mt
Global annual production of
primary polymer resin, fiber, and additives in Mt
Source: Plastics Europe, The Fiber Year, PCI Wood Mackenzie, GIA, BCC

9. 9
European plastic demand by segment and resin type
Source: Plastics Europe Market Research Group
Polymer types
Segments %
39.7%
19.8%
10.1%
6.2%
3.4%
4.1%
16.7%

10. 10
Global primary plastics production by polymer
(in million metric tons, or Mt)
2017: 438 Mt
Compound annual growth rate
CAGR (1950-2017): 8.3%
7%
14%
45%
(polyester, polyamide, acrylic fibers)
Source: Geyer 2020

11. 11
Global primary plastics production by consuming sector
2017:
438 Mt
CAGR (1950-2017): 8.3%
Source: Geyer 2020
36%
16%
14%

12. 12
Use phase modeling
Sector Mean Standard Deviation
Packaging 0.5 0.1
Consumer & institutional products 3 1
Textiles / Other 5 1.5
Electrical & electronic equipment 8 2
Transportation 13 3
Industrial machinery 20 3
Building & construction 35 7

13. 13
Plastic waste generation
𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑡 =
𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑖
𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡
𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑗
𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 𝑡 − 𝑗 ∙ 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 𝑗

14. 14
Primary Plastic Waste Generation by Sector
2017:
328 Mt

15. 15
Household waste generation Plastic content
USA: 5.7 lbs/person/day 13%
France: 4.2 lbs/person/day 10%
Mexico: 2.7 lbs/person/day 7%
The in-use plastic stock is growing
110 Mt added to
in-use stock
438 Mt primary plastic produced
328 Mt plastic waste generated
Year 2017:
Household waste generation varies by nation

16. 16
Waste
Generation
Production
158 Mt
(36%)
71 Mt
(16%)
152Mt
(46%)
14 Mt
(4%)
Composition of primary plastic waste versus production mix
2017:
328 Mt
2017:
438 Mt

17. 17
Fate of plastic waste
𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑡 = 𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑡 − 𝑘 + 𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑡 − 𝑘 ∙ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑦𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡 − 𝑘
𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡 = 𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑡 + 𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑡
𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑡 = 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑡 ∙ 𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡
𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡 = 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑡 ∙ 𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡

18. 18
Global recycling, incineration, and discard rates
China
discarded = landfill + dumping/litter

19. 19
Annual global plastic waste generation and fates
𝑇𝑊𝑡𝑜𝑝 𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 = 274 𝑀𝑡
𝑇𝑊𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑚 𝑢𝑝 = 275 𝑀𝑡
vs.
Total Waste
Recycled Waste
Incinerated Waste
Discarded Waste

20. 20
Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made
1950-2017, in Mt
76%
discarded
14%
incinerated
10%
recycled
7,000 Mt of
plastic waste
generated