The document summarizes key findings from the OECD's Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060 report. It projects that global material use will nearly double by 2060 due to economic and population growth, exacerbating environmental impacts. While recycling increases over time, it is not sufficient to shift the balance between primary and secondary materials usage. A variety of policies are needed to promote greater resource efficiency and decouple materials usage from GDP, including policies addressing specific materials, climate change, trade, and innovation. The report provides granular projections of materials usage across economic sectors, countries, and environmental impact categories to 2060.

1. Global Material Resources
Outlook to 2060
Economic drivers and environmental consequences
Shardul Agrawala, Ruben Bibas
With Martin Benkovic, Jean Chateau, Rob Dellink, Elisa Lanzi
OECD #GreenTalks LIVE, 18 February 2019
@OECD_ENV

2. • Motivation
• The outlook in a nutshell
• Economic drivers and materials use projections
• Environmental consequences
• Conclusions and policy implications
2
Outline

3. • Outlooks for resource use are not new, but natural scientists and
economists have often came to opposite conclusions
• Recent decades have led to a more convergent agenda:
– From materials scarcity to planetary boundaries
– From efficient markets to externalities of materials use and how to correct them
3
Motivation

4. • On the policy side decoupling of materials use from GDP has
become an effective proxy, both to set targets and monitor progress.
• But we still lack sufficient insight on key issues:
– Granularity of materials use
– Economic drivers of materials use
– Implications of economic interconnectedness
– Life-cycle environmental consequences
4
Motivation

5. • Global assessment (disaggregated to 12 large economies + 13 regions )
• 2060 time horizon
• 50+ economic sectors
• 61 materials
5
Material Resources Outlook in a nutshell
Multisectoral
model
ENV-Linkages
Material extraction data
Recycling assumptions
Structural change
assumptions on demand
and production
Macro
model
ENV-Growth
Capital
accumulation
Total factor
productivity
Labour
Demographics
Economic
projections
Materials use
projections
Environmental
impacts

6. 6
OECD
Non-
OECD
Global economy to triple ...
….but global growth slows down

7. 7
Living standards will converge to current OECD levels

8. 8
Investment increases over time and construction follows

9. 9
Structural change shifts activity away from material intensive sectors
Services

10. 10
Competing forces lead to near doubling of materials use

11. 11
Growth in material use differs widely across materials

12. 12
.. And across countries

13. 13
Recycling grows faster than mining ..
…. but remains a small share of the economy

14. 14
GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent
Transport
End users
Industry
Energy supply
Agriculture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2060
Materials
management
emissions
Other
emissionsTransport
Transport
End users
End users
Industry
Industry
Energy supply
Energy supply
Agriculture
Agriculture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2060
Materials
management
emissions
Other
emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions related to materials
management will more than double
12%of total ghg emissions
associated with 7 key metals
12%of total ghg emissions
associated with concrete
50Gt CO2 eq emissions
associated with materials cycle

15. 15
Environmental impacts from extraction and processing
will more than double, but vary widely by material
Acidification
Climate change
Cum. energy
demand
Eutrophication
Freshwater aquatic
ecotoxicity
Human toxicity
Land use
Photochemical
oxidation
Terrestrial
ecotoxicity
Total environmental impacts (highest impact in 2060 normalised to 1)

16. 16
Primary materials cause much more environmental damage
Per kg environmental impacts (highest impact normalised to 1) for 2015
Acidification
Climate change
Cum. energy
demand
Eutrophication
Freshwater aquatic
ecotoxicity
Human toxicity
Land use
Photochemical
oxidation
Terrestrial
ecotoxicity

17. The Outlook also covers projections of …
17
Materials Criticality
Steel
Copper
Uncertainty

18. 18
Conclusions
• Conflicting socio-economic trends will drive materials use. Despite structural and
technological change, global materials use will double between now and 2060.
• This exacerbates a wide range of environmental impacts, and is on a collision
course with meeting the objectives of the Paris Climate Accord.
• While recycling becomes more competitive over time it is not sufficient to shift the
balance between primary and secondary materials use.
• Given the stark differences between materials we need greater granularity within
resource efficiency policies, motivated by environmental consequences.
• Greater coherence is needed between resource management and climate change
policies, as well as a wider range of other policies, such as trade and innovation.

19. Find the report, highlights and
explore the data at:
oe.cd/materials-outlook
For more information, contact:
Shardul.Agrawala@oecd.org
Ruben.Bibas@oecd.org
Thank you for joining us!

20. OECD Green Talks LIVE
Responding to Rising Seas
Comparing OECD countries’ approaches to coastal
adaptation
6 March 2019, 17:00 CET
To register: bit.ly/OECDGreenTalks
Up next…
#GreenTalks @OECD_ENV