Session 1 - OECD_Data Needs for Regional Plastics Outlook - Dr Shardul AGRAWALA

1. REGIONAL PLASTICS OUTLOOK
ON ASEAN PLUS THREE (APT)
–
DATA NEEDS & CHALLENGES
Shardul Agrawala
Head of the Environment and Economy Integration Division
OECD Environment Directorate
3 May 2023
3rd Regional Ocean Policy Dialogue

2. 2
What did we learn from GPO about APT? (1/2)
Plastic waste is projected to grow for APT countries
OECD
Non-OECD
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
OECD Oceania
OECD Asia
OECD Non-EU countries
OECD EU countries
Other OECD America
Canada
USA
Other non-OECD Asia
India
China
Other Africa
Middle East & North Africa
Other Eurasia
Other EU
Latin America
2019 2030 2060
Mt
Source: Global Plastics Outlook database (OECD, 2022).
Japan + Korea
China
South and East Asia*

3. 3
What did we learn from GPO about APT? (2/2)
Mismanaged waste remains an issue in APT countries
OECD Pacific China Other Asia
1990 2019 2060 1990 2019 2060 1990 2019 2060
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Recycled Incinerated Landfilled Mismanaged
Source: Global Plastics Outlook database (OECD, 2022).
Japan & Korea China South and East Asia*

4. Understanding
plastics flows
• What are the economic drivers of plastic use? For which application? Using which
polymer?
• In the absence of new policies, how much plastics would accumulate in the
environment?
What policies
do we need?
• What policies could help promote plastics lifecycle with lower environmental impacts?
• What could be the economic impacts of policies?
How to ensure
co-ordination?
• How to harmonize policies between countries within the APT region?
• How to align ambitions with the global agenda on ending plastics pollution?
4
Key questions for the Regional Plastics Outlook
focused on ASEAN Plus Three?

5. Applying the GPO methodology for the RPO:
Modelling methodology
5

6. We need key parameters along the whole plastic lifecycle:
6
What is the precise data we need to do the modelling
to answer these questions?
Plastic production,
trade & use
Including plastic content in
products
Lifetimes
By polymer and application
Waste system
Collection rates
Recycling rates (collection rates
AND losses)
Landfilling vs. Incineration vs.
mismanaged
Pollution & leakage
Evolution of waste management
(collection and litter)
Informality of the recycling
system
Future of open-burning
Plastic waste leakage by type of
product/polymer

7. 7
Ongoing work on current estimates:
Plastics use per capita show wide disparities
Plastics use per capita by application, 2019 (kg/cap).
Note: Missing Brunei, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, resins only. Work in progress (do not cite or quote).

8. • Most complete sources: 21/22 World Bank studies (covering the whole plastic lifecycle)
• We are also integrating national data sources
• We will compare with bottom-up estimates from Leeds University
• Outstanding data issues:
– Plastic use missing data
• for Brunei, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar
• for non-resin (textiles, coatings and markings, microbeads)
– Waste stage
• For end-of-life fates other than recycling
• Estimates for plastics embedded in internationally traded products are very uncertain
• Critical assumptions for the evolution of:
– Waste collection rates and end-of-life fates (including from informal to formal recycling)
– Recycling loss rates
– Plastic use phase lifetimes
– Embedded plastics content and trade
(where we likely will not have data but welcome experts’ judgment):
8
Current assessment of data availability and limitations

9. Thank You
Shardul.Agrawala@oecd.org –
Head of Environment and Economy Integration Division
https://www.oecd.org/environment/plastics/