Session 5 presentation by Marteen Dubois

1. Private sectorexpectations about plastics
projections and policies
Dr.MaartenDubois
23June 2020

2. Outline
► Introduction
► Expectations
► Models
► Challenges

3. 1. Introduction
EY expertise in waste management and circular economy
► Economic, legal and
strategic advice

4. ► Strategic
► Fact-driven decision making
► Identifying new opportunities, e.g. chemical recycling
► Financial
► Reserves
► Budgeting
► Communication with stakeholders
► Plastics industry
► Long Term Value frameworks
► Economic shocks
► Covid, EU Green deal, Carbon adjustment mechanism
2. Expectations
Market trends and impacts

5. 3. Model
Waste arising and recycling under EPR
► Aim
► Decide on pricing of recycling organizations
► Justify financial reserves
► Assess feasibility of targets and prepare for negotiations
► Input
► Collection rates: historic data of waste recyclers
► Future trends: producer expectations on volumes, models and
technologies
► Key elements
► Questionnaires, surveys, assumptions
► Confidentiality: normalized expectations, aggregated results
► Stock: lifetime
► Market shares per technology

6. 3. Model
Illustration: stock effect lamps
Lifetimes until replacement
Lifetime range: 2-12-25 y (residential)
8-11 y (shop, hotel, bar, office, industry)
Average lifetime: 10-11 years
► s

7. 3. Model
Illustration: POM – Waste arising lamps

8. 3. Model
Illustraton: packaging waste
Volumes, costs and revenues in different scenarios
Factors influencing costs and performance

9. 4. Challenges
Modelling plastics waste and policy effects
► Multitude of plastics and products (lifetimes)
► Size of the waste management sector <1% GDP
► Volumes targeted by policies
► Deposit-refund: only beverage bottles
► Ban of disposable shopping bags: small volume
► Single use plastics, e.g. EPR for cigarette butts:
► Worldwide: 5,6 trillion cigarettes => 1,7 million ton of waste -> 0,6% of all
plastic waste
► Multi-material policies
► Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)
► Waste disposal taxes
► Substitution and impact of other materials
► Plastic tax -> Plastic vs paper shopping bags

10. EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory
About EY
EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory
services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust
and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world
over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our
promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role
in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for
our communities.
EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of
the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is
a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company
limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information
about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the
rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available
via ey.com/privacy. For more information about our organization, please
visit ey.com.
© 2020 EYGM Limited.
All Rights Reserved.
ey.com
Dr. Maarten Dubois
Director EY
Climate Change and Sustainability Services