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Industry Strategic Outlook
Rick West
www.WestFSI.com
1
Overview
• Last Five Years
• What has changed the most in the past 5 years
• What hasn’t change which has implications to the
future
• Next Five Years
• Will pace of change continue
• What are some of the changes we can anticipate
• Where could we be surprised
• How Are You Positioned
2
Whataresomeof thethingsthatchanged fastin
the lastfiveyears
3
Consolidation
• Valuations
• Valuations for parking for companies, off-airport parking businesses / real estate
and urban parking real estate are at or close to all time highs
• The value of valet hospitality companies grew the most
• Don’t forget the value of higher education and municipal concessions
• Transactions have been many
• ImPark 2011 sold and is acquiring
• SP+ / Central merged 2012
• Park n Fly Canada 2014 sold and eyeing the US
• Citizen Parking 2014 acquired Lanier followed by Icon, AmeriPark, Park One
• Towne Park majority stake sold 2014 and is acquiring
• Many off-airport locations have transacted
• Many urban parking garages / lots have transacted
• OSU parking concession $483 million; City of Harrisburg parking concession $281
million
• International investment likely was at an all time high 4
PARCSandParkingTechnology
• PARCS consolidation, closure and start ups
• 3M / FAPD closure
• Flow startup
• Park Mobile transacted
• ParkMe sold to Inrix
• T2 bought Digital
• Parking technology starts with angel or venture capital
backing went from essentially 0 to over 200
• Smarking (data mining)
• Luxe (valet logisitics)
• Spot Hero (customer aggregation and location data)
• ParkMe (location data)
5
https://angel.co/parking
6
August 2015: 165 companies January 2016: 205 companies
WhereIs DemandGrowing
• Hospitality valet (hotel and medical) is growing tied to construction
and an aging population
• As a staffing business model the parking contracts lead to new staffing
opportunities (front door, luggage, wheel chair…)
• On-Street parking technology
• Smart meters
• Mobile payments
• Sensors
• Consumer websites and apps
7
TheLowerLaborParticipationRateChangedMaterially
• View the labor force participation rate in the last five years vs. history
• The unemployment rate has fallen but it masks demographic trends
(boomers retiring), under employment, part-time employment and
people no longer looking for work all of which impact long term parking
demand
8
Riseofthe NextWorkingGenerationAccelerated
• Millennials now hold 1 in 3
jobs and have their own
view on job quality,
company loyalty, pace of
advancement and use of
technology
• Millennials are the largest
US population segment
and are still entering the
workforce
• By 2020 Millennials are
expected to hold 1 of
every 2 jobs
9
TheUSBecameaSharingEconomy
• Shared jobs
• Fractional employment, permanent loss FT jobs, lower demand for monthly parking
• Shared cars
• Zip Car, personal car rental, 1 car replaces multiple
• Shared driving
• Uber, Lyft… changing mode of transportation mix
• Shared global inflation / deflation
• Downward pressure on costs, price and incomes
• Shared costs with workforce
• Shifting benefit cost to workforce including paid employee parking
• Shared technology
• Mobile payments, data / analytics, connected cars, sensors, integration
• Shared back office, systems infrastructure, workforce
• Subcontract software, IT infrastructure
• Shared culture
• Millennials (ages 18 to 34) impact as they grow to 1:2 jobs in workforce, mobile
• Shared transparency
• Price, alternatives, procurement
10
Did you feellikethingswerechangingthisfast?
11
Whatdidn’tchangeorchanged slowly
12
IndustrySupplyandDemandDynamics
• Competition has remained high
• Between parking companies, PARCS manufacturers, with the self managed parking
option and in the professional services segment
• Differentiation remains light
• Parking company A or B, PARCS systems or engineer
• Expectation is all will deliver similar results
• Differentiation is the “local” hands on person which is a two edged sword
• The “pie” is growing slowly so market share “take away” continues
the downward pressure on gross margins and consolidation
• Overall demand for parking remains stable with low incremental
growth reflecting a slow growth economy
• Inflation remains low which impacts a historical industry driver of
price escalation
13
IndustryValueAdded Skills–My Opinion
• Commercial location revenue growth
• My experience is that most of the parking industry managers responsible for
locations either never had or have lost the “commercial” skills needed to drive
revenue growth
• Specialty vertical skills are better than five years ago but only
modestly
• Back office technology improvement has been slow
• Parking company business proposals still don’t have much meat
• Large company culture is still “if it’s a good idea we should develop it
in house and own it” (but this is wrong and they never do)
• If my opinion is correct this will become a larger issue in the next
five years
14
IndustryForecast–Next FiveYears
Thespeedofchangewillkeepaccelerating
15
DemographicandEconomicTrendsWillIncrease
inImportance
• Cities
• Urban residential trend will continue and become more meaningful
• New floor plans pack more jobs into less space which means more people in each
commercial building
• City tourism (business & leisure) will continue to grow
• Baby boomers aged 51 to 69 will continue to retire in larger numbers
• This requires private companies and the self-managed GINP organizations to focus
more on succession planning or pay the price
• Retirements will also disrupt client relationships and public sector decisions to
outsource
• Millennials will ascend very quickly in the industry… much faster than
GenXer’s
• Low US and global growth will continue to deflate select areas, inflation
will remain low and overall demand will only slowly improve
16
TechnologyAdvancement&UseWillAccelerate
• PARCS
• “In the last five years we were a hardware company writing software to support
our hardware. In five years we will be a software company.” Mike Bigbee, TIBA
• Integration between technologies will continue and improve
• Winners and losers will be identified and the field will paired
• Winners will take a leadership role in helping parking companies including self-
managed operations to “use” their software and its features
• Mobile
• Will move from customer only centric to also include parking industry workforce
• True remote management will become a large catalyst of change
• Logistics technology will become an influential force of change
17
Automobile
• Cars will remain the dominant choice for personal travel
• Convenience, lack of mass transit alternatives in most areas
• New technologies will continue to be developed and added
• Parking integration with vehicle navigation will take a big leap
• Car ownership model for people living in or near cities will evolve
quickly
• Electric car
• Slow and steady
• Autonomous car
• Fast addition of features including safety, fewer accidents, impact on insurance
industry, long haul trucking and driving will come first
• Last mile issues, regulatory
18
Ford’s Chairman Is on Quest to Reinvent Auto Maker
Company weighs partnerships, new business lines to address challenges of
rapid urbanization. WSJ January 11, 2016
ConsolidationWillContinue
• All types of companies in the parking industry will
continue to be sold or will enter into strategic
relationships
• Outcome of boomer retirement and valuation
• Share the cost of investment
• International investment will continue to grow
• Safe harbor money
• Want exposure to the US GDP growth
• Sales processes will continue to be a mix of
• Investment banker off-market or public process
• Advisor off-market
• Parking real estate will remain an attractive asset class
19
Existing HurdlesWillGrowUnlessAddressed
• Commoditization will remain an issue keeping a pressure
on gross margins unless you break from the pack
• The overhead cost of geographically disbursed
hierarchical organization structures will remain a cost
issue
• It is difficult to flatten an org structure without effectively using
technology
• Vertical expertise needs to be elevated
• Culture
• Inward Looking: Company and US
• Initiative Flow Through: Company initiatives are not well executed in the field
• Operations: Generalist; Operations mentality “what do I have to do today”
• Focused Business Plan: Hospitality Valet - Hire right… Train right… Customer Focus
20
How willyoumodifyyourbusinessplantotake
advantageofthe next fiveyears
21
BusinessPlan
• Marketing
• Service
• Value
22
StrategicPartnerships
• NPA
• Geo relevancy
• Share cost and expertise
• Share the leadership
RickWest
West FSI,LLC
www.WestFSI.com
Phone201.306.7384
23

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NPA Winter Leadership Forum 2016

  • 1. Industry Strategic Outlook Rick West www.WestFSI.com 1
  • 2. Overview • Last Five Years • What has changed the most in the past 5 years • What hasn’t change which has implications to the future • Next Five Years • Will pace of change continue • What are some of the changes we can anticipate • Where could we be surprised • How Are You Positioned 2
  • 4. Consolidation • Valuations • Valuations for parking for companies, off-airport parking businesses / real estate and urban parking real estate are at or close to all time highs • The value of valet hospitality companies grew the most • Don’t forget the value of higher education and municipal concessions • Transactions have been many • ImPark 2011 sold and is acquiring • SP+ / Central merged 2012 • Park n Fly Canada 2014 sold and eyeing the US • Citizen Parking 2014 acquired Lanier followed by Icon, AmeriPark, Park One • Towne Park majority stake sold 2014 and is acquiring • Many off-airport locations have transacted • Many urban parking garages / lots have transacted • OSU parking concession $483 million; City of Harrisburg parking concession $281 million • International investment likely was at an all time high 4
  • 5. PARCSandParkingTechnology • PARCS consolidation, closure and start ups • 3M / FAPD closure • Flow startup • Park Mobile transacted • ParkMe sold to Inrix • T2 bought Digital • Parking technology starts with angel or venture capital backing went from essentially 0 to over 200 • Smarking (data mining) • Luxe (valet logisitics) • Spot Hero (customer aggregation and location data) • ParkMe (location data) 5
  • 6. https://angel.co/parking 6 August 2015: 165 companies January 2016: 205 companies
  • 7. WhereIs DemandGrowing • Hospitality valet (hotel and medical) is growing tied to construction and an aging population • As a staffing business model the parking contracts lead to new staffing opportunities (front door, luggage, wheel chair…) • On-Street parking technology • Smart meters • Mobile payments • Sensors • Consumer websites and apps 7
  • 8. TheLowerLaborParticipationRateChangedMaterially • View the labor force participation rate in the last five years vs. history • The unemployment rate has fallen but it masks demographic trends (boomers retiring), under employment, part-time employment and people no longer looking for work all of which impact long term parking demand 8
  • 9. Riseofthe NextWorkingGenerationAccelerated • Millennials now hold 1 in 3 jobs and have their own view on job quality, company loyalty, pace of advancement and use of technology • Millennials are the largest US population segment and are still entering the workforce • By 2020 Millennials are expected to hold 1 of every 2 jobs 9
  • 10. TheUSBecameaSharingEconomy • Shared jobs • Fractional employment, permanent loss FT jobs, lower demand for monthly parking • Shared cars • Zip Car, personal car rental, 1 car replaces multiple • Shared driving • Uber, Lyft… changing mode of transportation mix • Shared global inflation / deflation • Downward pressure on costs, price and incomes • Shared costs with workforce • Shifting benefit cost to workforce including paid employee parking • Shared technology • Mobile payments, data / analytics, connected cars, sensors, integration • Shared back office, systems infrastructure, workforce • Subcontract software, IT infrastructure • Shared culture • Millennials (ages 18 to 34) impact as they grow to 1:2 jobs in workforce, mobile • Shared transparency • Price, alternatives, procurement 10
  • 13. IndustrySupplyandDemandDynamics • Competition has remained high • Between parking companies, PARCS manufacturers, with the self managed parking option and in the professional services segment • Differentiation remains light • Parking company A or B, PARCS systems or engineer • Expectation is all will deliver similar results • Differentiation is the “local” hands on person which is a two edged sword • The “pie” is growing slowly so market share “take away” continues the downward pressure on gross margins and consolidation • Overall demand for parking remains stable with low incremental growth reflecting a slow growth economy • Inflation remains low which impacts a historical industry driver of price escalation 13
  • 14. IndustryValueAdded Skills–My Opinion • Commercial location revenue growth • My experience is that most of the parking industry managers responsible for locations either never had or have lost the “commercial” skills needed to drive revenue growth • Specialty vertical skills are better than five years ago but only modestly • Back office technology improvement has been slow • Parking company business proposals still don’t have much meat • Large company culture is still “if it’s a good idea we should develop it in house and own it” (but this is wrong and they never do) • If my opinion is correct this will become a larger issue in the next five years 14
  • 16. DemographicandEconomicTrendsWillIncrease inImportance • Cities • Urban residential trend will continue and become more meaningful • New floor plans pack more jobs into less space which means more people in each commercial building • City tourism (business & leisure) will continue to grow • Baby boomers aged 51 to 69 will continue to retire in larger numbers • This requires private companies and the self-managed GINP organizations to focus more on succession planning or pay the price • Retirements will also disrupt client relationships and public sector decisions to outsource • Millennials will ascend very quickly in the industry… much faster than GenXer’s • Low US and global growth will continue to deflate select areas, inflation will remain low and overall demand will only slowly improve 16
  • 17. TechnologyAdvancement&UseWillAccelerate • PARCS • “In the last five years we were a hardware company writing software to support our hardware. In five years we will be a software company.” Mike Bigbee, TIBA • Integration between technologies will continue and improve • Winners and losers will be identified and the field will paired • Winners will take a leadership role in helping parking companies including self- managed operations to “use” their software and its features • Mobile • Will move from customer only centric to also include parking industry workforce • True remote management will become a large catalyst of change • Logistics technology will become an influential force of change 17
  • 18. Automobile • Cars will remain the dominant choice for personal travel • Convenience, lack of mass transit alternatives in most areas • New technologies will continue to be developed and added • Parking integration with vehicle navigation will take a big leap • Car ownership model for people living in or near cities will evolve quickly • Electric car • Slow and steady • Autonomous car • Fast addition of features including safety, fewer accidents, impact on insurance industry, long haul trucking and driving will come first • Last mile issues, regulatory 18 Ford’s Chairman Is on Quest to Reinvent Auto Maker Company weighs partnerships, new business lines to address challenges of rapid urbanization. WSJ January 11, 2016
  • 19. ConsolidationWillContinue • All types of companies in the parking industry will continue to be sold or will enter into strategic relationships • Outcome of boomer retirement and valuation • Share the cost of investment • International investment will continue to grow • Safe harbor money • Want exposure to the US GDP growth • Sales processes will continue to be a mix of • Investment banker off-market or public process • Advisor off-market • Parking real estate will remain an attractive asset class 19
  • 20. Existing HurdlesWillGrowUnlessAddressed • Commoditization will remain an issue keeping a pressure on gross margins unless you break from the pack • The overhead cost of geographically disbursed hierarchical organization structures will remain a cost issue • It is difficult to flatten an org structure without effectively using technology • Vertical expertise needs to be elevated • Culture • Inward Looking: Company and US • Initiative Flow Through: Company initiatives are not well executed in the field • Operations: Generalist; Operations mentality “what do I have to do today” • Focused Business Plan: Hospitality Valet - Hire right… Train right… Customer Focus 20
  • 22. BusinessPlan • Marketing • Service • Value 22 StrategicPartnerships • NPA • Geo relevancy • Share cost and expertise • Share the leadership