The Bord Gáis Energy Index for September 2014 saw significant increases in the wholesale prices of Natural Gas (21%) and Electricity (17%). This was mostly offset by a fall in Brent Crude Oil as the Bord Gáis Energy Index rises by 3%.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index from June 2013.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was stable (-1%) in June as falls in the Irish wholesale electricity, UK Day-ahead gas and European coal prices were counteracted by a rising front month Brent crude oil price.
The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for December 2016. This issue makes a couple of key points re natural gas: (1) EIA predicts that natural gas production in the U.S. for 2016 will see a healthy decline over 2015 levels--1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) less in 2016. That's the first annual production decline since 2005! (2) The EIA predicts the average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub will climb from $2.49/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) in 2016 to a whopping $3.27/Mcf in 2017. Why the jump? Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook issued Nov. 10, 2015. The STEO looks at the recent history of oil, natural gas, coal, renewables, etc., and predicts what will happen in the coming months/up to one year out. This report predicts the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $2.59/million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter (October 2015–March 2016) compared with $3.35/MMBtu last winter.
The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for April 2016. This issue makes a couple of key points re natural gas: (1) U.S. natural gas inventories just finished the winter heating season at their highest level ever, and are expected to be at a record high at the start of next winter heating season in November. (2) This summer natural gas consumption for electricity generation is expected to reach a record high. Here's the natgas section of the STEO, along with a copy of the full report.
Following months of steadily rising wholesale fuel prices, the April Bord Gáis Energy Index stabilised at 154.
In euro terms, having hit a month end closing high in March, oil prices finally receded in April as both market tightening and geopolitical tensions eased.
Supply constraints, storage withdrawals and cool weather supported UK Day-ahead gas prices and a weaker euro amplified this movement.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index for September 2014 saw significant increases in the wholesale prices of Natural Gas (21%) and Electricity (17%). This was mostly offset by a fall in Brent Crude Oil as the Bord Gáis Energy Index rises by 3%.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index from June 2013.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was stable (-1%) in June as falls in the Irish wholesale electricity, UK Day-ahead gas and European coal prices were counteracted by a rising front month Brent crude oil price.
The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for December 2016. This issue makes a couple of key points re natural gas: (1) EIA predicts that natural gas production in the U.S. for 2016 will see a healthy decline over 2015 levels--1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) less in 2016. That's the first annual production decline since 2005! (2) The EIA predicts the average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub will climb from $2.49/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) in 2016 to a whopping $3.27/Mcf in 2017. Why the jump? Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook issued Nov. 10, 2015. The STEO looks at the recent history of oil, natural gas, coal, renewables, etc., and predicts what will happen in the coming months/up to one year out. This report predicts the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $2.59/million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter (October 2015–March 2016) compared with $3.35/MMBtu last winter.
The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for April 2016. This issue makes a couple of key points re natural gas: (1) U.S. natural gas inventories just finished the winter heating season at their highest level ever, and are expected to be at a record high at the start of next winter heating season in November. (2) This summer natural gas consumption for electricity generation is expected to reach a record high. Here's the natgas section of the STEO, along with a copy of the full report.
Following months of steadily rising wholesale fuel prices, the April Bord Gáis Energy Index stabilised at 154.
In euro terms, having hit a month end closing high in March, oil prices finally receded in April as both market tightening and geopolitical tensions eased.
Supply constraints, storage withdrawals and cool weather supported UK Day-ahead gas prices and a weaker euro amplified this movement.
THE BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX INCREASES 1% IN JANUARY — INDEX 8% HIGHER THAN IN JANUARY 2011
Despite reduced demand and unseasonably mild weather across Europe for most of January, the Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in the month as oil prices increased by $4 US Dollars. The possibility of military engagement should Iran attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz in response to international embargoes put upward pressure on oil prices.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
Interesante analisis sobre los dividendos de la paz en Colombia,
“Colombia’ s peace deal could spur oil sector turnaround” (Acuerdos de paz en Colombia podrían estimular al sector petrolero),
Energy & Commodities, 2010 regarding MarchSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound.
Memorandum Of Association Constitution of Company.pptseri bangash
www.seribangash.com
A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
www.seribangash.com
Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
https://seribangash.com/promotors-is-person-conceived-formation-company/
Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
Explore our most comprehensive guide on lookback analysis at SafePaaS, covering access governance and how it can transform modern ERP audits. Browse now!
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Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
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RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
Remote sensing and monitoring are changing the mining industry for the better. These are providing innovative solutions to long-standing challenges. Those related to exploration, extraction, and overall environmental management by mining technology companies Odisha. These technologies make use of satellite imaging, aerial photography and sensors to collect data that might be inaccessible or from hazardous locations. With the use of this technology, mining operations are becoming increasingly efficient. Let us gain more insight into the key aspects associated with remote sensing and monitoring when it comes to mining.
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
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Enterprise Excellence is a holistic approach that's aimed at achieving world-class performance across all aspects of the organization.
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A way to engage all in creating Inclusive Excellence. Lessons from the US military and their parallels to the story of Harry Potter. How belt systems and CI teams can destroy inclusive practices. How leadership language invites people to the party. There are three things leaders can do to engage everyone every day: maximizing psychological safety to create environments where folks learn, contribute, and challenge the status quo.
Who might benefit? Anyone and everyone leading folks from the shop floor to top floor.
Dr. William Harvey is a seasoned Operations Leader with extensive experience in chemical processing, manufacturing, and operations management. At Michelman, he currently oversees multiple sites, leading teams in strategic planning and coaching/practicing continuous improvement. William is set to start his eighth year of teaching at the University of Cincinnati where he teaches marketing, finance, and management. William holds various certifications in change management, quality, leadership, operational excellence, team building, and DiSC, among others.
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
2. Rising wholesale gas prices
increase the Bord Gáis Energy
Index by 4%
Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100)
Bord Gáis Energy Index
180
Summary:
12 Month Rolling Average
The Bord Gáis Energy Index
rose 4% in November as all four
commodities tracked in the index
rose month-on-month.
Points
140
100
60
Jan 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug13 Nov 13
1 Mth
4%
3 Mth
0%
12 Mth
-3%
Despite achieving an interim deal
over Iran’s nuclear programme,
oil prices were supported by
ongoing supply issues particularly
in Libya. As Iran’s oil sanctions
are to remain in place and
Iranian oil exports are unlikely
to increase over the next six
months, Brent crude prices failed
to react to news of the agreement.
Wholesale UK prices rose with
higher demand and a series
of minor supply issues which
nudged prices incrementally
higher throughout the month.
In November 2013 the Index stood
at 148.
Despite a modest softening in the annual average price of Brent crude oil in 2013, prices remained at near record highs throughout the year.
The market received a rare but brief reprieve in April when prices fell below $100 for the first time in 2013 but geopolitical tensions and supply
disruptions kept prices high for much of the year. At nearly 68p a therm, the annual average Day-ahead UK gas price was at a record high as an
extended period of cold weather in early 2013 and a series of supply issues in 2013 nudged prices higher. Higher wholesale UK gas prices meant
that the annual average wholesale Irish electricity price was the second highest on record and the highest since 2008. Euro zone buyers of oil
and gas were protected somewhat from high record wholesale prices as the euro gained in strength versus the US Dollar and British Pound.
However, the euro’s strength in 2013 may be a cause of concern for exporters and policy makers who are looking for economic growth and
improved competitiveness in 2014.
Oil Index
180
Points
140
Oil
Month-on-month the front month Brent crude price
was 1% higher as protests in Libya continue to halt
oilfields and close export terminals. Brent, the
benchmark grade used to price much of the crude
produced by OPEC countries, averaged US$108.53 a
barrel this year and, according to a Bloomberg report,
is set to record its third-highest level in data starting
in 1988.
100
During November Libyan oil production has fallen to
around 200,000 b/d due to continued protests, strikes
and industrial action at key infrastructure across the
country. The unrest has paralyzed Libya’s oil industry
for most of the summer and autumn and in excess of
60
Jan 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug13 Nov 13 1 million b/d of export capacity has been lost. Toward
the end of the month only one main export terminal
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
was operating and, according to reports, worsening
1 Mth 1%
3 Mth -6%
12 Mth -6%
Data Source: ICE
unrest in the east of the country during the month
further weakens the likelihood of any restart to oil
activity there. In November deadly clashes in the Eastern city of Benghazi left several people dead. According to one analyst “any rapid
normalisation of oil production in Libya remains a pipe dream after fighting broke out in the oil-rich east of the country between regular troops
and militant Islamists”. However, the International Energy Agency tried to address the markets’ growing concern and it said that oil markets are
sufficiently supplied even with the prospect of dwindling crude output from Libya.
Two security incidents in southern Iraq and “weather-related” export constraints further hampered supplies following bomb attacks on pipeline
infrastructure in September. Southern Iraq is home to the country’s biggest producing oil fields. Janet Yellen, the woman the White House wants
to run the Federal Reserve, provided some additional support to oil prices as she defended its stimulus efforts and vowed to continue them if
confirmed. Her comments in her first appearance in front of Congress were seen by financial markets as positive for equities and oil as she is likely
to continue the ultra-easy money policy to support US and global growth. During the month the US Dow Jones and S&P 500 index hit record
highs. The cheap money policy keeps interest rates low. This means investors are driven to find investments, such as equities and commodities,
where they hope to find higher returns.
On November 24 an interim deal over Iran’s nuclear programme was achieved. Although the agreement further lowers the geopolitical tension
across the Middle East, reaction in the oil market was limited. According to official US estimates, Iran’s current export levels are around 1 million
b/d, down from 2.5 million b/d in early 2012. However, Iranian oil exports will not be increasing significantly over the next six months as sanctions
on oil remain firmly in place. It is estimated that the extension of oil sanctions will cost Iran US$30 billion over the 6 month period.
3. Natural Gas
Natural Gas Index
300
In euro terms, the average Day-ahead gas price for
November was over 6% higher month-on-month with
colder weather in the UK driving up demand. A stronger
Pound versus the euro amplified the upward price
movement for euro zone buyers of UK gas.
250
Points
200
150
100
50
Jan 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug13 Nov 13
1 Mth
6%
3 Mth
8%
12 Mth
1%
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: Spectron Group
The average Day-ahead gas price for November was
67.64p a therm but significantly the average for the
second half of the month was closer to 70p a therm.
For relatively normal conditions (UK gas supplies in
November were stable, storage levels are healthy and
rising demand is not unexpected) an average of 70p a
therm over a two week period is high. During the month
Norwegian supplies were interrupted on three days due
to processing plant issues and wholesale prices on each
occasion were nudged higher and failed to retreat. This
upward trend and swift reaction to temporary supply
issues again highlights how sensitive UK wholesale gas prices have become to import supply disruptions as the UK becomes more reliant on
imports. The UK receives less than half of its total gas supplies from the UK Continental Shelf or North Sea. It also receives supplies via pipelines
from Norway and continental gas through the IUK interconnector and BBL pipelines. It also has facilities to receive liquefied natural gas (LNG)
shipments, as well as gas storage.
With the exception of a few price spikes in March, the Day-ahead gas price had been trading in “normal” conditions around 65p a therm. Traders
will be monitoring future price moves closely to assess whether the recent upward trend is a temporary phenomenon or whether 70p a therm is
the new normal.
UK Gas prices for summer 14, next winter and beyond also rose in November as movements in the prompt and higher oil prices pushed prices
about 1p a therm higher.
Coal
Coal Index
260
In euro terms the ICE Rotterdam Monthly Coal Futures
contract was 1% higher month-on-month.
In October the ICE Rotterdam Monthly Coal Futures price
received some support as it was perceived that the market
was tight with the impact of the delayed shipments from
Colombia, following a 53-day miners’ strike which ended
150
in late September, being felt. In November the market
traded in a very tight range as players reportedly held off
from the market in the absence of any new developments
95
in the issue of whether US miner Drummond will be
able to ship coal from its Colombian operations in 2014.
Uncertainty over Colombian physical supply in the first
40
quarter of 2014, due to Drummond’s likely failure to meet
Jan 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug13 Nov 13
with new direct loading legislation by January 1, largely
supported prompt prices in November (all Colombian
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
1 Mth 1%
3 Mth 9%
12 Mth -10%
coal producers are required to convert export terminals
to direct loading operations). Colombia is a significant
supplier of coal to Europe and it is unclear whether producer Drummond will receive an extension to its end-year deadline. There is speculation
that the Colombian government will slap a ban on Drummond exports until the miner complies with the regulations. Sources from other suppliers
remain stable, despite repeated terrorist attacks on the rail infrastructure of the country’s largest miner Cerrejon, which has stoked some concerns
about security of supply. With coal port stocks at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp down approximately 2 million m/t below record highs seen
earlier in the year, concerns about the impact of any disruption to supplies are being amplified. Drummond’s operations account for over a third of
coal output in Colombia. It is unclear what the effect of the possibility of a Drummond stoppage for the first few months of the year will be given
that there are South African coal cargoes coming into Europe at the same time, but the uncertainty did support prices in November.
Points
205
Global coal demand is set to grow 17% to 2035, with two thirds of that increase by 2020, according to the International Energy Agency’s World
Energy Outlook 2013. Coal is set to expand by one third in non-OECD countries such as India, China and Southeast Asia. Coal use is set to decline
in OECD countries. On the production of coal, the International Energy Agency sees India, Indonesia and China accounting for 90% of the growth
in output.
Electricity
Electricity Index
180
In November the monthly average Irish wholesale
electricity price rose 8% month-on-month with the
combination of rising wholesale UK gas prices and higher
‘clean sparks’ (the ‘clean spark’ is the theoretical gross
margin of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of
electricity, having bought the fuel required to produce
this unit of electricity and the cost of abating the carbon
emitted).
Points
140
100
60
Jan 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug13 Nov 13
1 Mth
8%
3 Mth 14%
12 Mth
-1%
Data Source: SEMO
The November monthly average clean spark rose with
an increased number of thermal plant starts and rising
demand due to colder weather. An increasing number
of thermal plant starts applied upward pressure on
wholesale prices as the extra cost of starting up large
power plants to meet rising demand fed through to
wholesale prices. Wholesale UK gas prices have a
significant influence on Irish wholesale electricity prices
as the cost of producing electricity by burning gas tends to determine the wholesale price of power. The vast majority of this gas is imported
from the UK on a daily basis.
Of note during the month was the media coverage of “Green Bonds”. These are bonds that fund clean energy projects from China to France to
Canada. The expectation is that these investments will support clean low-carbon energy technologies. Big global players like the World Bank,
European Investment Bank and International Finance Corporation are among the biggest issuers globally of these new bonds.
4. FX Rates
1.6
FX Rates
Month-on-month the euro held steady against the US
Dollar but lost some value against the British Pound.
1.4
During the month the economic data from the UK
looked impressive and this in turn supported the
Pound. According to the data, activity in the service
1.2
sector (the biggest part of British economic output)
hit a record high. The construction sector continues to
grow, unemployment continues to fall and house prices
1.0
continue to rise. The Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation
Report added to the positive sentiment as it predicts
0.8
better than expected growth in 2014, contained inflation
and a better than expected unemployment rate in 2015.
The Q3 GDP figure showed that growth in the UK is faster
0.6
Jan 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug13 Nov 13 than that in the US and Japan and that, at an annualised
rate, British growth is higher than any other G7 country.
However, other numbers do highlight some weaknesses.
1 Mth 0%
3 Mth 3%
12 Mth 5%
EURUSD
Quarter-on-quarter exports declined by £3 billion,
investment still remains 25% below its previous peak,
1 Mth -2%
3 Mth -3%
12 Mth 2% EURGBP
productivity per worker is down in Britain and workers
have less money in their pockets. According to the
Economist Magazine “with exports growing more slowly than domestic consumption, the economy is becoming inward-focused and unproductive”.
Despite a series of positive economic data releases from the US the Dollar failed to gain ground versus the euro as the markets continue to operate
on the assumption that the Fed’s era of ultra-easy money will continue. In November the US economy scored well on economic growth, jobs,
inflation, consumer spending and house prices. Over the last 12 months 2.3 million jobs have been created and ongoing signs of a US recovery
support the Fed’s aggressive use of monetary policy. According to Yellen, the Fed’s US$85 billion monthly bond buying programme has “made
a meaningful contribution to economic growth and improving the outlook”.
The euro in turn suffered from a 25bps reduction in its policy rate to 0.25% and the ECB’s position that rates will stay low for a long time and could
even be lowered if required. A series of poor economic numbers point to the ongoing weakness in the euro zone economy. In particular, euro zone
growth staggered in the third quarter and youth unemployment hit a high of 24.4%, with over 3.4 million under-25s out of work.
Market Outlook
Despite colder weather, Winter 13/14 has begun calmly and UK gas stocks are healthy. However, despite a balanced supply and demand picture,
wholesale prices were rising at the back end of November and into December. The outlook for gas prices over the next four months of winter
13/14 will be driven by the weather and the ability of the UK’s diverse supplies to meet demand. The same primary concern continues to hang
over the market, being the 34 million cubic metres curtailment of Norwegian gas production due to compressor problems at the Troll swing field.
According to Reuters, the Troll outage significantly limits flexibility to ramp-up Norwegian production to meet peak demand in severe weather
conditions. With declining domestic supplies and further expected decreases in LNG imports, the UK will be more reliant than ever on piped gas
from Norway and Continental Europe. As stated previously, this by itself is not a concern but multiple, coincident events within a winter could still
prove challenging. As wholesale prices reacted to temporary disruptions to Norwegian supplies in November, it is clear that the UK gas market
is growing tense as we descend further into winter 13/14.
On oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) point to supply risks and swings in refining demand as “powerful” price drivers in the short-term.
Brent crude oil prices have eased from the summer high of over US$116 despite significant supply disruptions, particularly from Libya. However,
the IEA point out that since the summer, global refinery demand has declined with European refiners leading the way. According to the Financial
Times, European refiners are facing competition not only from low-cost plants in Asia and the Middle East but increasingly from North America
where the shale boom is allowing the US to become a major exporter of cheap oil products. According to the IEA, it expects refinery demand to
recover over the next few months due to a seasonal ramp-up. When combined with some production problems in OPEC countries, Brent crude
prices should be supported in the short-term. OPEC oil ministers will meet in December to discuss the market outlook for 2014 and the possibility
of Iran boosting exports immediately after sanctions are lifted should be discussed. Rising Iranian output coupled with an expected growth in
non-OPEC supplies could potentially lead to OPEC production cuts in 2014. The IEA also expects the US to surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as
the world’s top oil producer in 2015, two years earlier than it had predicted in last year’s report. With domestic oil production up and efficiency
increased, the share of petroleum imports in the US energy mix is the same now as in 1973, when Richard Nixon called for “energy independence”.
The geopolitical impact of the US’s abundant production of domestic oil and gas should be intriguing in the years ahead.
Re-weighting of Bord Gáis Energy index
Following the SEAI’s 2011 review of energy consumption in Ireland, there was a 6.4%
drop in overall energy consumption. Oil continues to be the dominant energy source with
most of the oil used in transport and the remainder being used for thermal energy. For
the purposes of the Bord Gáis Energy Index, the total final energy consumption in Ireland
fell 1,089 ktoe (toe: a tonne of oil equivalent is a unit of energy, roughly equivalent to the
energy content of one tonne of crude oil) between 2009 and 2011. This fall was made up
of a 1,022 ktoe drop in oil consumption (down 13.5%), a 20 ktoe drop in natural gas (down
12.6%), a 7 ktoe drop in electricity (down 0.3%) and a 40 ktoe drop in coal (down 10.98%).
The Bord Gáis Energy Index has been re-weighted in January 2013 to reflect the latest
consumption data. The impact has been minimal and has resulted in slight reductions in the
share of oil and gas and a slight increase in the weighting of electricity in the overall Index.
Oil 61.96%
Gas
14.72%
Electricity
20.22%
Coal
3.1%
For more information please contact:
Fleishman-Hillard — James Dunny — 086 388 3903
Bord Gáis Energy — Aoife Donohoe — 087 773 3344
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