- Brent crude oil prices rose in June due to escalating violence in Iraq from the militant group ISIL seizing territory, raising concerns over global oil supply stability. However, the majority of Iraq's oil production and exports so far remain unaffected.
- Wholesale natural gas and electricity prices in Europe continued to decline due to ample gas supply, offsetting the rise in oil prices and leaving the Bord Gáis Energy Index unchanged month-over-month.
- Coal prices also fell slightly due to weak demand and high stockpiles in Europe.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged in May as rising Brent crude oil prices offset falling wholesale gas and electricity prices. Brent crude remained around $110 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about spare global oil capacity over the summer. Wholesale gas prices fell to 31⁄2 year lows due to high stock levels and mild winter demand. Electricity prices dropped 4% as gas-fired generation dominates Irish supply. The Euro weakened against the dollar and pound on expectations the ECB will cut rates in June to boost inflation and growth.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index for September 2014 saw significant increases in the wholesale prices of Natural Gas (21%) and Electricity (17%). This was mostly offset by a fall in Brent Crude Oil as the Bord Gáis Energy Index rises by 3%.
Month-on-month the Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in January due to rising wholesale electricity prices as reduced availability of efficient power plants increased costs despite falling UK gas prices and record wind volumes. UK gas prices fell further in January due to ample supplies and continued mild weather, while the euro weakened against the US dollar and British pound on expectations of interest rate hikes in those economies amid positive economic data.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in February due to high wind generation and mild weather which lowered wholesale gas and electricity prices in both Ireland and the UK. Approximately 23% of Ireland's electricity was generated by wind, contributing to a 13% drop in wholesale electricity prices. Mild weather also reduced gas demand and prices fell 10% as storage levels increased. The Ukraine crisis did not initially impact prices but they spiked in early March due to concerns over European gas supplies from Russia through Ukraine.
The September 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 6% due to excess global oil supplies weighing on oil prices, with Brent crude falling to its lowest point since March 2009 of $48.37 per barrel. The index stood at 91 in September, a new record low. The document also discusses the Volkswagen emissions scandal casting doubt on the future of diesel engines in Europe. While diesel demand has surged in Europe due to tax policies and fuel efficiency, the scandal uncovered that diesel vehicles were emitting nitrogen oxide at levels seven times the legal limit. Continued low oil prices are driven by a global supply glut as US frackers and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintain high production levels.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% in March as wholesale prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity all recorded losses. A framework agreement between Iran and world powers added downward pressure on oil prices by potentially adding 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil to global markets, though experts say this increase may not occur until 2016.
2) Natural gas prices in the UK fell as strong liquefied natural gas imports increased supplies. Coal prices also weakened due to high stock levels in Europe and declining demand from China.
3) Irish wholesale electricity prices fell due to lower gas and coal prices, but prices were also influenced by the intermittent pattern of wind power, which at times led to price
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged in May as rising Brent crude oil prices offset falling wholesale gas and electricity prices. Brent crude remained around $110 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about spare global oil capacity over the summer. Wholesale gas prices fell to 31⁄2 year lows due to high stock levels and mild winter demand. Electricity prices dropped 4% as gas-fired generation dominates Irish supply. The Euro weakened against the dollar and pound on expectations the ECB will cut rates in June to boost inflation and growth.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index for September 2014 saw significant increases in the wholesale prices of Natural Gas (21%) and Electricity (17%). This was mostly offset by a fall in Brent Crude Oil as the Bord Gáis Energy Index rises by 3%.
Month-on-month the Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in January due to rising wholesale electricity prices as reduced availability of efficient power plants increased costs despite falling UK gas prices and record wind volumes. UK gas prices fell further in January due to ample supplies and continued mild weather, while the euro weakened against the US dollar and British pound on expectations of interest rate hikes in those economies amid positive economic data.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in February due to high wind generation and mild weather which lowered wholesale gas and electricity prices in both Ireland and the UK. Approximately 23% of Ireland's electricity was generated by wind, contributing to a 13% drop in wholesale electricity prices. Mild weather also reduced gas demand and prices fell 10% as storage levels increased. The Ukraine crisis did not initially impact prices but they spiked in early March due to concerns over European gas supplies from Russia through Ukraine.
The September 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 6% due to excess global oil supplies weighing on oil prices, with Brent crude falling to its lowest point since March 2009 of $48.37 per barrel. The index stood at 91 in September, a new record low. The document also discusses the Volkswagen emissions scandal casting doubt on the future of diesel engines in Europe. While diesel demand has surged in Europe due to tax policies and fuel efficiency, the scandal uncovered that diesel vehicles were emitting nitrogen oxide at levels seven times the legal limit. Continued low oil prices are driven by a global supply glut as US frackers and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintain high production levels.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% in March as wholesale prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity all recorded losses. A framework agreement between Iran and world powers added downward pressure on oil prices by potentially adding 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil to global markets, though experts say this increase may not occur until 2016.
2) Natural gas prices in the UK fell as strong liquefied natural gas imports increased supplies. Coal prices also weakened due to high stock levels in Europe and declining demand from China.
3) Irish wholesale electricity prices fell due to lower gas and coal prices, but prices were also influenced by the intermittent pattern of wind power, which at times led to price
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in March as rising wholesale electricity prices offset falling oil and gas prices. Wholesale electricity prices increased 6% due to low wind volumes and forced outages of efficient gas and coal plants. Wholesale UK gas prices fell 5% amid mild weather and low demand, though concerns remain about potential disruptions to European gas supplies from Russia through Ukraine due to unpaid gas debts.
The document discusses trends in the US natural gas market, including:
- US natural gas demand is increasingly served by domestic shale gas production rather than imports.
- Natural gas use for electricity generation is expected to increase due to low prices and coal plant retirements.
- Exports of liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports are expected to grow as US production increases and prices remain low relative to global markets, making the US a net exporter of natural gas.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in October due to a 9% plunge in global oil prices from over $115 per barrel in June to $83.78 per barrel in October.
2) Wholesale natural gas prices in the UK increased 4% in October from seasonal higher demand despite record-high stock levels and mild weather so far.
3) The EU emissions trading scheme has failed to adequately incentivize the transition to low-carbon energy sources due to oversupply of carbon credits, keeping prices too low at around €6.59 per tonne of carbon emissions.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 4% in July due to weaker Brent crude oil, gas, and wholesale electricity prices. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continued as Russia suspended gas deliveries, while negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program were extended. Global oil supplies remained strong despite conflicts, weighing on prices. The euro weakened against the dollar and pound, partially offsetting declines in wholesale energy prices in euro terms. Wholesale coal prices rose 7% amid concerns that sanctions against Russia could disrupt supplies.
Aranca views - Shale Gas - the Next Cradle of Energy?Aranca
As of 2013, recoverable shale gas resources account for nearly one third of the total gas energy resources of the world. The article highlights US, Europe, China, Canada & GCC region's shale gas statistics, impacts & consumption.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged in August as stronger wholesale gas, coal and electricity prices offset lower Brent crude oil prices. Higher gas, coal, and electricity prices were driven by supply restrictions, rising demand, and uncertainty around potential conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Lower Brent crude prices were due to increased African oil supply and soft global demand, despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
The February Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 16% month-over-month as the prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity all increased. The main driver was a nearly $10 per barrel increase in the price of oil due to falling US rig counts restricting future US oil production growth. Despite the rally in prices, oil remains well below its 2011-2014 price range of $100-120 per barrel due to continued oversupply. Demand growth is not expected to be strong enough in 2015 to significantly reduce inventories and support further price increases.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index from June 2013.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was stable (-1%) in June as falls in the Irish wholesale electricity, UK Day-ahead gas and European coal prices were counteracted by a rising front month Brent crude oil price.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose in August due to concerns over global oil supplies stemming from conflicts and instability in Syria, Libya, and Egypt. Brent crude oil prices increased 6% due to threats to supply from the Suez Canal. The Index also rose as the wholesale gas price increased 2% and concerns grew over tightening oil markets with supply issues in Libya and Iraq.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 4% in October due to higher prices for Brent crude oil, European coal, and wholesale electricity. A weaker euro contributed to higher prices for oil, coal, and gas, which are traded in dollars and pounds. Global gas supplies have expanded significantly in recent years due to new sources like shale gas, coal seam gas, and floating LNG facilities. This has led to a surplus of natural gas and lower wholesale gas prices in many markets like the UK. The oversupply situation could persist for some time as new LNG export capacity continues to come online through 2020.
An issue brief/report from the Manhattan Institute. The 20-page report says now is the time for the U.S. to press its advantage in shale energy. The report's writer, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Oren Cass, points out the cyclical nature of commodity prices for oil and gas and says even though prices are down now--they won't stay that way. In order to take full advantage of the shale boom, Cass suggests 11 reforms to help craft a smarter U.S. energy policy--one that will amplify the current boom and extend it far into the future.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in September despite rises in wholesale gas, electricity, and coal prices, driven by a 7% drop in Brent crude oil prices due to easing geopolitical tensions over Syria and Iran. UK wholesale gas prices rose 4% in September as utilities replenished depleted storage stocks, while electricity prices increased 5% due to higher gas and carbon prices. Coal prices increased 7% on short-covering and expectations of tighter supply.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% in November 2014 to its lowest level in over four years as global oil prices continued to plunge. The document discusses factors contributing to declining oil prices such as increased North American oil production, OPEC's decision not to cut production, and geopolitical issues. It also summarizes trends in natural gas and coal markets, noting prices declines there as well driven by oversupply and weaker demand.
New base energy news 11 march 2019 issue no 1234 by khaled al awadiKhaled Al Awadi
Greetings
Honored to share the above file with you , hope to be of interest to you.
NewBase Energy News 11 March 2019 - Issue No. 1234 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
UAE
The July 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% month-over-month due to weaker oil prices driven by abundant global supply. The index level of 98 was the lowest since December 2009. Brent crude oil prices continued to weaken, closing at the lowest price recorded by the index. The UK government announced plans to scrap an exemption to the Climate Change Levy for renewable electricity, contrary to the views of the green energy sector.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in May due to declines in wholesale electricity, oil, coal, and natural gas prices from their record highs earlier in the year. Irish wholesale electricity prices fell 11% as UK gas prices softened and power imports from the UK increased with the new interconnecter cable. Brent crude prices fell slightly to around $100/barrel on expectations that increasing North American shale oil production would weaken global oil markets, while weaker economic data from China also weighed on oil prices. Coal and natural gas prices in Europe also declined from previous months' highs due to mild weather, high inventories, and a weak eurozone economy.
The document summarizes recent research by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) including: growth in light sweet crude oil production in the U.S.; an updated study on increased liquefied natural gas exports and their effects on domestic energy markets; and a study on the relationship between gasoline and crude oil prices. It then provides details on U.S. tight oil and shale gas production trends, projections for U.S. natural gas production and consumption, the potential for the U.S. to become a net exporter of natural gas, and considerations around crude oil production projections beyond the next few years given different resource and technology assumptions.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% in December due to lower Irish wholesale electricity prices as a result of higher wind volumes which reduced costs. Brent crude oil prices were steady in December due to ongoing conflicts and supply disruptions in Libya and other regions. Natural gas and coal prices in Europe rose slightly over the month while the euro remained steady against the US dollar and British pound.
An abridged version of the Annual Energy Outlook that highlights changes in the AEO Reference case projections for key energy topics. The Early Release includes data tables for the Reference case only. The AEO2014 full version will be released early Spring 2014.
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 31 December 2015 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• Oman to raise tax and cut subsidies as oil rout hits Oman hard
• Ireland: Shell gears up for Corrib first gas after final hurdle skipped
• US: Marcellus, Utica provide 85% of U.S. shale gas production growth since 2012
• US: Wind generation seasonal patterns vary across the US
• Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood, hangover to be long and painful
• Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Falling wholesale gas prices in the UK and weaker Brent crude oil prices drove a record month-on-month drop in Ireland's Bord Gáis Energy Index in April. UK gas prices eased back from March highs as supplies increased and demand decreased with warmer weather, while Brent crude fell below $100/barrel due to increased supplies and reduced demand concerns. Irish wholesale electricity prices also declined as the three main cost components - UK gas, carbon, and 'spark' rates - all decreased in April. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to remain around $100/barrel barring geopolitical events, with OPEC maintaining output, while UK gas prices may rise if summer LNG imports are lower than
Following months of steadily rising wholesale fuel prices, the April Bord Gáis Energy Index stabilised at 154.
In euro terms, having hit a month end closing high in March, oil prices finally receded in April as both market tightening and geopolitical tensions eased.
Supply constraints, storage withdrawals and cool weather supported UK Day-ahead gas prices and a weaker euro amplified this movement.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in March as rising wholesale electricity prices offset falling oil and gas prices. Wholesale electricity prices increased 6% due to low wind volumes and forced outages of efficient gas and coal plants. Wholesale UK gas prices fell 5% amid mild weather and low demand, though concerns remain about potential disruptions to European gas supplies from Russia through Ukraine due to unpaid gas debts.
The document discusses trends in the US natural gas market, including:
- US natural gas demand is increasingly served by domestic shale gas production rather than imports.
- Natural gas use for electricity generation is expected to increase due to low prices and coal plant retirements.
- Exports of liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports are expected to grow as US production increases and prices remain low relative to global markets, making the US a net exporter of natural gas.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in October due to a 9% plunge in global oil prices from over $115 per barrel in June to $83.78 per barrel in October.
2) Wholesale natural gas prices in the UK increased 4% in October from seasonal higher demand despite record-high stock levels and mild weather so far.
3) The EU emissions trading scheme has failed to adequately incentivize the transition to low-carbon energy sources due to oversupply of carbon credits, keeping prices too low at around €6.59 per tonne of carbon emissions.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 4% in July due to weaker Brent crude oil, gas, and wholesale electricity prices. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continued as Russia suspended gas deliveries, while negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program were extended. Global oil supplies remained strong despite conflicts, weighing on prices. The euro weakened against the dollar and pound, partially offsetting declines in wholesale energy prices in euro terms. Wholesale coal prices rose 7% amid concerns that sanctions against Russia could disrupt supplies.
Aranca views - Shale Gas - the Next Cradle of Energy?Aranca
As of 2013, recoverable shale gas resources account for nearly one third of the total gas energy resources of the world. The article highlights US, Europe, China, Canada & GCC region's shale gas statistics, impacts & consumption.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged in August as stronger wholesale gas, coal and electricity prices offset lower Brent crude oil prices. Higher gas, coal, and electricity prices were driven by supply restrictions, rising demand, and uncertainty around potential conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Lower Brent crude prices were due to increased African oil supply and soft global demand, despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
The February Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 16% month-over-month as the prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity all increased. The main driver was a nearly $10 per barrel increase in the price of oil due to falling US rig counts restricting future US oil production growth. Despite the rally in prices, oil remains well below its 2011-2014 price range of $100-120 per barrel due to continued oversupply. Demand growth is not expected to be strong enough in 2015 to significantly reduce inventories and support further price increases.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index from June 2013.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was stable (-1%) in June as falls in the Irish wholesale electricity, UK Day-ahead gas and European coal prices were counteracted by a rising front month Brent crude oil price.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose in August due to concerns over global oil supplies stemming from conflicts and instability in Syria, Libya, and Egypt. Brent crude oil prices increased 6% due to threats to supply from the Suez Canal. The Index also rose as the wholesale gas price increased 2% and concerns grew over tightening oil markets with supply issues in Libya and Iraq.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 4% in October due to higher prices for Brent crude oil, European coal, and wholesale electricity. A weaker euro contributed to higher prices for oil, coal, and gas, which are traded in dollars and pounds. Global gas supplies have expanded significantly in recent years due to new sources like shale gas, coal seam gas, and floating LNG facilities. This has led to a surplus of natural gas and lower wholesale gas prices in many markets like the UK. The oversupply situation could persist for some time as new LNG export capacity continues to come online through 2020.
An issue brief/report from the Manhattan Institute. The 20-page report says now is the time for the U.S. to press its advantage in shale energy. The report's writer, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Oren Cass, points out the cyclical nature of commodity prices for oil and gas and says even though prices are down now--they won't stay that way. In order to take full advantage of the shale boom, Cass suggests 11 reforms to help craft a smarter U.S. energy policy--one that will amplify the current boom and extend it far into the future.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in September despite rises in wholesale gas, electricity, and coal prices, driven by a 7% drop in Brent crude oil prices due to easing geopolitical tensions over Syria and Iran. UK wholesale gas prices rose 4% in September as utilities replenished depleted storage stocks, while electricity prices increased 5% due to higher gas and carbon prices. Coal prices increased 7% on short-covering and expectations of tighter supply.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% in November 2014 to its lowest level in over four years as global oil prices continued to plunge. The document discusses factors contributing to declining oil prices such as increased North American oil production, OPEC's decision not to cut production, and geopolitical issues. It also summarizes trends in natural gas and coal markets, noting prices declines there as well driven by oversupply and weaker demand.
New base energy news 11 march 2019 issue no 1234 by khaled al awadiKhaled Al Awadi
Greetings
Honored to share the above file with you , hope to be of interest to you.
NewBase Energy News 11 March 2019 - Issue No. 1234 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
UAE
The July 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% month-over-month due to weaker oil prices driven by abundant global supply. The index level of 98 was the lowest since December 2009. Brent crude oil prices continued to weaken, closing at the lowest price recorded by the index. The UK government announced plans to scrap an exemption to the Climate Change Levy for renewable electricity, contrary to the views of the green energy sector.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in May due to declines in wholesale electricity, oil, coal, and natural gas prices from their record highs earlier in the year. Irish wholesale electricity prices fell 11% as UK gas prices softened and power imports from the UK increased with the new interconnecter cable. Brent crude prices fell slightly to around $100/barrel on expectations that increasing North American shale oil production would weaken global oil markets, while weaker economic data from China also weighed on oil prices. Coal and natural gas prices in Europe also declined from previous months' highs due to mild weather, high inventories, and a weak eurozone economy.
The document summarizes recent research by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) including: growth in light sweet crude oil production in the U.S.; an updated study on increased liquefied natural gas exports and their effects on domestic energy markets; and a study on the relationship between gasoline and crude oil prices. It then provides details on U.S. tight oil and shale gas production trends, projections for U.S. natural gas production and consumption, the potential for the U.S. to become a net exporter of natural gas, and considerations around crude oil production projections beyond the next few years given different resource and technology assumptions.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% in December due to lower Irish wholesale electricity prices as a result of higher wind volumes which reduced costs. Brent crude oil prices were steady in December due to ongoing conflicts and supply disruptions in Libya and other regions. Natural gas and coal prices in Europe rose slightly over the month while the euro remained steady against the US dollar and British pound.
An abridged version of the Annual Energy Outlook that highlights changes in the AEO Reference case projections for key energy topics. The Early Release includes data tables for the Reference case only. The AEO2014 full version will be released early Spring 2014.
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 31 December 2015 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• Oman to raise tax and cut subsidies as oil rout hits Oman hard
• Ireland: Shell gears up for Corrib first gas after final hurdle skipped
• US: Marcellus, Utica provide 85% of U.S. shale gas production growth since 2012
• US: Wind generation seasonal patterns vary across the US
• Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood, hangover to be long and painful
• Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Falling wholesale gas prices in the UK and weaker Brent crude oil prices drove a record month-on-month drop in Ireland's Bord Gáis Energy Index in April. UK gas prices eased back from March highs as supplies increased and demand decreased with warmer weather, while Brent crude fell below $100/barrel due to increased supplies and reduced demand concerns. Irish wholesale electricity prices also declined as the three main cost components - UK gas, carbon, and 'spark' rates - all decreased in April. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to remain around $100/barrel barring geopolitical events, with OPEC maintaining output, while UK gas prices may rise if summer LNG imports are lower than
Following months of steadily rising wholesale fuel prices, the April Bord Gáis Energy Index stabilised at 154.
In euro terms, having hit a month end closing high in March, oil prices finally receded in April as both market tightening and geopolitical tensions eased.
Supply constraints, storage withdrawals and cool weather supported UK Day-ahead gas prices and a weaker euro amplified this movement.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 11% in March as unseasonably high demand coupled with gas supply constraints pushed wholesale gas prices to record highs in the UK. Despite negative market reaction to Cyprus’s bailout and weak economic numbers from Europe and China, Brent crude oil prices in euro terms rose by 1%. As a result, the Bord Gáis Energy Index now stands at 166, an increase of 8% on March 2012. Severe spikes occurred in the price of prompt UK gas contracts but these did recede back to more acceptable levels, albeit still relatively high. Events in Cyprus and worries over European debt piled on to bearishness in the European coal market, pushing prices lower. The euro
THE BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX INCREASES 1% IN JANUARY — INDEX 8% HIGHER THAN IN JANUARY 2011
Despite reduced demand and unseasonably mild weather across Europe for most of January, the Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in the month as oil prices increased by $4 US Dollars. The possibility of military engagement should Iran attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz in response to international embargoes put upward pressure on oil prices.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 8% in July, its largest monthly increase since February 2012, as prices increased across oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Wholesale fuel prices rose due to supply concerns from events in Norway, Colombia, and tensions in the Middle East, as well as expectations that governments would provide more economic stimulus. Additionally, ongoing weakness in the euro amplified commodity price gains. As a result, the Index now stands at 144, up 4% from July 2011.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% in October 2013 due to modestly softer wholesale gas and electricity prices in Ireland. While wholesale commodity prices were relatively stable, Brent crude oil prices experienced significant volatility within the month due to geopolitical events affecting supply in Libya. The Index level stood at 143 at the end of October.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index increased 3% in March as oil prices rallied over 5% on a currency adjusted basis. Other energy sources showed mixed performance, with UK gas down 1%, European coal down 3% and Irish electricity up 1%. Oil prices rebounded over 10% on expectations that a production freeze agreement between major producers will be reached in April to curb the global oil surplus. However, rebalancing the oil market may take time due to high global inventory levels. The euro strengthened against the US dollar and British pound.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in April due to lower wholesale gas and electricity prices. Gas prices declined with healthy supply and lower demand, though tensions over Ukraine caused occasional price increases. Falling gas and carbon prices contributed to lower wholesale electricity prices in Ireland. Oil prices saw minor changes and remained in a narrow range.
- In December 2015, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 13% as wholesale prices for Brent crude oil, UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity all recorded losses. The index stood at another record low of 79.
- Prices continued to decline across the board, with oil falling 19% to close below $38/barrel for the first time in a decade due to oversupply and weak demand. Other fuels like UK gas and European coal also recorded losses.
- The euro strengthened against the US dollar and British pound over the month, exacerbating losses in the energy index which is adjusted for currency movements.
- In January 2016, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 7% as wholesale prices declined for Brent crude oil (-7%), UK gas (-9%), European coal (-3%), and Irish electricity (-8%).
- Brent oil prices hit 12-year lows of $27.88/barrel in January due to oversupply and the lifting of Iranian sanctions.
- UK natural gas prices averaged 32.02 pence/therm in January, down from 34.16 pence/therm in December, as mild weather and ample supplies weighed on prices.
- Most energy commodity prices recorded losses in January as supply remained high and demand was weak.
The document discusses trends in global energy markets in 2014. It notes that oil prices plummeted towards the end of the year due to oversupply and weakening global economic growth. Natural gas prices also fell to four-year lows in Europe. Carbon prices in the EU rose as allowances were cut, but remain below levels needed to incentivize switching from coal to gas. Global coal prices continued a four-year downtrend due to weaker than expected demand growth.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 15 July 2015 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• UAE President Khalifa congratulates Iranian President on nuclear agreement
• Saudi Electricity seeks multi-billion-dollar loan
• Iran No Qatar Even With the World’s Second-Biggest Gas Reserves
• India : BPCL to invest $4 bn in partly Oman owned Bina oil refinery
• Greece says it receives three bids for deep sea oil and gas drilling
• Vietnam: Petrovietnam boosts cooperation with Murphy Oil and ExxonMobil
• Oil prices edge up after yesterday’s drop as Iranian exports to take time to ramp up
• post-deal Big volume of Iran oil unlikely to hit markets in 2015 despite nuke deal
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
1) The April Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 8% month-over-month as Brent crude oil prices increased nearly $12 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.
2) Robert Smithson argues that US tight oil production is more resilient to low prices than expected and that production costs are decreasing, suggesting oil prices may remain lower for longer.
3) Multiple factors including outages, declining spare capacity, and Middle East tensions supported higher oil prices in April, though stockpiles remain elevated and demand growth is expected to be modest.
- The Covid-19 outbreak and collapse of the OPEC+ alliance have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, with both a reduction in demand due to the economic slowdown and a coming oversupply as Saudi Arabia and Russia increase production.
- Oil prices have collapsed to around $36 per barrel and could fall further, pressuring the budgets of oil producing countries who need higher prices. This will weaken the economies of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members.
- The renewable energy sector may also see delays and slower growth as supply chains are disrupted and economic difficulties reduce investment and subsidies. Gas markets will remain oversupplied and depressed.
- The European Green Deal faces challenges
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell in December due to ongoing declines in global oil prices, with the index at 103.
2) A major factor has been the surge in US oil production, which has increased 80% since 2008 and now dominates price behavior after OPEC chose not to cut production in November.
3) Lower oil prices are good for the global economy as consumers benefit but pose challenges for oil-dependent countries and economies that rely on oil revenues to fund budgets.
Microsoft word new base 994 special 02 february 2017 energy newsKhaled Al Awadi
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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
In February 2016, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% month-over-month. Oil prices rose 3% while UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity prices declined between 3-10% from the previous month. The report provides an overview of movements in prices for oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity in February and discusses factors influencing these markets such as supply and demand fundamentals as well as geopolitical issues.
- The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in November 2015 to its lowest ever point of 90, as the wholesale prices of Brent crude oil, UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity all declined month-over-month.
- The document discusses how low oil prices are significantly impacting oil-exporting countries in the Gulf region, with Saudi Arabia still relying on oil for 85% of its budget despite efforts to diversify its economy.
- OPEC failed to agree on output limits at its December 2015 meeting, allowing oil production to remain high and adding to the global supply glut that is depressing prices.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% in August as modest increases in the Brent crude oil price were offset by falls in the wholesale prices of gas, coal, and electricity.
2) Commodity prices have fallen significantly from their highs in recent years due to oversupply issues in almost all raw materials markets driven by slowing demand from China.
3) The US administration took steps toward ending its ban on crude oil exports, which could benefit US oil producers and allies while hurting countries like Russia, Venezuela, and Iran if the ban is fully lifted. However, many political and economic issues still need to be addressed.
The June 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% due to weaker oil prices. Oil prices slumped toward the end of June as economic crisis in Greece weakened the dollar. The oil glut remains with supply exceeding demand by almost 3 million barrels per day. Natural gas prices were marginally weaker. Coal prices recovered slightly but electricity prices fell 9% due to lower demand in summer and a softening in power prices.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in May due to weaker wholesale gas and electricity prices, though the drop was softened by a weakening euro.
2) Brent crude oil prices were unchanged after recovering in previous months, but further gains are uncertain due to the ongoing oil supply glut.
3) Gazprom's profits declined in 2014 due to lower European demand, higher costs, and disputes with Ukraine over gas transit, and the company faces potential EU fines over antitrust issues.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in January due to lower wholesale prices for oil, gas, coal, and electricity. Brent crude oil prices stabilized around $50 per barrel after rapid declines in the previous months.
2) Concerns grew about weak economic growth in Europe and China. The ECB announced a quantitative easing program to try to stimulate inflation and demand.
3) Most energy commodity prices continued to decline in January except for small increases in oil and natural gas prices at the end of the month. Overall market sentiment remained bearish due to expectations of high supplies and weak demand growth.
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2. Steep rise in wholesale oil prices offsets
natural gas price decline as Bord Gáis
Energy Index remains unchanged
Bord Gáis Energy Index 12 Month Rolling Average
180
60
100
140
Points
Apr-14Jan-14Oct-13Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100)
In June BP said in its annual statistical review that US output had grown by 1.1million b/d in 2013 to reach 10million b/d, the highest since 1986 (the figure
includes crude, tight oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids). The increase is being attributed to the massive investment in shale and other tight formations
and the US achieved the world’s largest increase in oil production last year. This soaring output was a key factor in keeping oil prices from rising in 2013
following a further period of oil supply disruptions mainly in the Middle East. According to BP, oil prices in 2013 were “extremely stable” with volatility at its
lowest since the early 1970s. Despite this increase in production, the US has effectively banned the export of crude oil since the early 1970s and this ban is
now being called into question for two reasons. Firstly, because of the volume of tight oil being produced, refineries are reportedly asking for a discount
from producers. Allowing exports would enable tight oil producers to obtain world market prices which would lead to higher investment in US production.
Secondly, this increased investment would help the US to optimise its production capabilities which, given recent events in Libya and Iraq, would potentially
help to stabilise global prices into the future. This stability and some erosion of the power of traditional producers would be to the advantage of the US
politically. According to BP, oil remains the world’s leading fuel, accounting for 33% of global energy consumption. Evidence of the strength of the tight oil
boom was further revealed when North Dakota hit the landmark 1 million b/d output figure. Put in a global context, 115 countries produce crude oil but only
20 produce more than 1million b/d. The growing political and economic importance of energy independence was on show again in June with the news that
Germany is to consider new laws that would allow for shale gas drilling.
Month-on-month the front month Brent crude price
rose 2% in euro terms as the front month Brent crude
oil price hit its highest level this year in reaction to the
seizure of territory in the north and west of Iraq by the
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The impact
of this escalation in violence in Iraq has increased the
threat to global oil supplies with spare capacity already
being thin.
So far ISIL’s actions have not triggered any actual
supply disruptions as the vast majority of Iraq’s crude
oil production and exports are located in the far south
of the country (in April the southern region produced
2.6million b/d of a total production of 3million b/d). The
Kurdish region of north Iraq is reportedly producing
250,000 b/d of which 120,000 b/d are being exported
via a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Even before
ISIL’s actions, exports from the region now controlled
by ISIL were virtually zero following the bombing by
180
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Points
Apr-14Jan-14Oct-13Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
militants in March of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. By targeting Iraq’s oil facilities (such as the Baiji refinery), ISIL is attempting to cripple government revenue
and energy supplies and thus destabilise Iraq as a sovereign entity. To disrupt Iraq’s export volume of approximately 2.7million b/d, ISIL fighters would
reportedly need to pass both Baghdad and a number of key Shia religious sites on their way to the southern oilfields, and/or overcome close to 200,000
elite troops in the Kurdistan Regional Government. Despite what appears to be some security around Iraq’s oil exports, oil production in the south will be
running at a high level of stress. This extra stress, coupled with an estimated loss of 3.5million b/d of oil production due to varying constraints in Libya, Iran,
Syria, South Sudan, Yemen, Venezuela and Nigeria, has raised concerns that any unexpected outages from this point forward could send the globe’s spare
production capacity into the “danger zone”. OPEC’s spare capacity is currently around 3million b/d but this is expected to shrink as Saudi Arabia ramps up
output to meet higher global summer demand. In the unlikely event of a complete loss of Iraqi production, global spare capacity would be almost completely
depleted and Brent crude prices would spike, perhaps to record highs.
Despite the significant drop in Libya’s oil production to just 150,000 b/d, hopes that exports could increase received a tentative boost on the news of the
restart of Elephant field, the reopening of the Marsa al-Hariga terminal and the possible reopening of the Es Sider export terminal. In early July news broke
that Libya’s government had resumed control of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, the two eastern oil terminals that were being held by rebels. The government said
the move ended the country’s oil crisis. Nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 are now at a critical stage with just days to go before the 20 July deadline.
It is reported that the two sides remain some distance apart and developments in Iraq add an additional variable to an already complex equation. In June
OPEC ministers agreed to extend the group’s 30million b/d production ceiling through the remainder of 2014.
Oil Index Oil
1 Mth 2% 3 Mth 5% 12 Mth 5%
Summary
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged month-
on-month in June with rising Brent crude oil prices
again being offset by falling wholesale gas and
electricity prices.
In June oil markets were spooked by the menacing
emergence of ISIL on the world stage and traders were
alarmed by the nature of the current bout of violence
in Iraq and scale of ISIL’s territorial grab. Events in
Iraq again demonstrate the deep sectarian divide that
exists in a region that supplies vast quantities of oil to
the world. Oil traders are concerned that right now
the world has very limited extra production capacity
at its disposal and the loss of Iraqi oil, or further supply
disruptions, would result in oil price spikes.
Wholesale gas prices continued to soften in June
amid bumper supplies and this softening fed through
to lower electricity prices with gas being the most
significant cost in the production of electricity.
In June 2014 the Index stood at 133.
1 Mth 0% 3 Mth -6% 12 Mth -2%
3. Coal Index Coal
1 Mth -2% 3 Mth -5% 12 Mth -7%
Apr-14Jan-14Oct-13Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
Points
40
95
150
205
260
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
thermal coal producer, to its port had been blocked by protesting security workers. The main cause of the protests was reportedly Cerrejon’s changing of
its security contractor, which could mean the loss of as many as 600 jobs. Prices rose as traders feared that Cerrejon port stocks would be depleted due to
the lack of supplies and that this would restrict exports to Europe. However, the six-day dispute was resolved before the end of the month and coal railings
quickly resumed.
Despite tensions between Russia and the West, it was reported that there was no scarcity of Russian material in June and the market has seen plenty of
Russian offers to sell gas into the European market, despite weak prices.
In June the monthly average Irish wholesale
electricity price fell a further 4% month-on-month
as a result of softer wholesale gas prices (as gas
powered generation dominates the generation
mix on the island of Ireland the price of imported
gas from the UK has a significant influence on Irish
wholesale electricity prices).
Despite the 12% month-on-month drop in the
monthly average Day-ahead wholesale gas, and
softening European coal prices, the average ‘clean
spark’ in Ireland rose by approximately €2/MWh
to close to €13.50/MWh (the ‘clean spark’ is the
theoretical gross margin of a gas-fired power
plant from selling a unit of electricity, having
bought the fuel required to produce this unit of
electricity and the cost of abating the carbon
emitted). This rise supported electricity prices in
the month. In a European and Irish context, and in
ElectricityElectricity Index
Data Source: SEMO
an internationally competitive environment, €13.50/MWh remains a strong ‘clean spark’, particularly given that we are in the summer period when
demand softens. The rising spark was a result of low wind volumes, falling gas prices and the requirement to start and run some inefficient plant
due to outages which removed more efficient power generators from the system in June.
1 Mth -4% 3 Mth -21% 12 Mth -9%
Apr-14Jan-14Oct-13Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
50
100
150
200
250
300
Points
Natural Gas
1 Mth -12% 3 Mth -28% 12 Mth -29%
Natural Gas Index
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: Spectron Group
In euro terms the average Day-ahead gas price for
June was 12% lower month-on-month as bumper
supplies continued to push prompt prices lower for
the sixth consecutive month running. At 39.48p a
therm, the June average Day-ahead gas was the lowest
monthly average price since May 2010. The Day-ahead
price in June 2013 averaged at 59.74p a therm. The
mild winter has left UK gas facilities at a whopping
83% full at the end of June compared to 57% at the
same time last year, according to Gas Infrastructure
Europe data. As reported previously, the fullness of
the UK’s gas in store is a factor weighing on gas prices
as the demand for gas in the months ahead will be
lower because the need to replenish stocks in advance
of winter 14/15 will ease. According to the Met Office
mean temperatures during the past winter were their
fifth highest on record.
The Day-ahead gas prices in June reached levels not
seen since May 2010 when the market was still in recovery mode following the crash of 2008 and had yet to be hit by the rise in Asian LNG demand in the
wake of the Japanese Fukushima nuclear disaster. The UK is currently experiencing a steady flow of Qatari LNG tankers but this traditionally eases in July
as summer air-conditioning peaks in Asia. However, with softening Asian prices, LNG tankers have been scheduled to arrive in the UK in early July and this
bodes well for supplies in the short-term. UK power generators’ natural gas consumption surged to a 16-month high in June as weaker gas prices triggered
an increase in profit margins for gas-fired power plants.
Despite a major gas transit pipeline in Ukraine carrying gas from Russia to Europe being hit by an explosion and the decision by Moscow to cut off supplies
to its neighbour over the long-running payment dispute, forward gas prices continued to weaken as Russian gas supplies to Europe have been uninterrupted.
However, if the standoff between Ukraine and Gazprom continues into autumn when Ukraine’s domestic gas demand starts to rise, any siphoning of gas
bound for Western Europe by Ukraine could start to apply some tension in the market. According to Gazprom, Ukraine owes US$4.5billion for 11.5bcm of
gas delivered in November, December, April and May. Naftogaz is looking to renegotiate its contract with Gazprom to lower the gas price, but recent media
reports quoted Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolev as saying that Ukraine wants to reconsider the transit contract as well. Naftogaz is looking to pay US$268
per unit for Russian gas which is the price set for the first quarter of this year, while Gazprom insists that Ukraine must first repay its debt before a cut in gas
prices can be discussed. Gazprom has indicated it is ready to reduce the price to US$386 per unit from US$486 per unit now.
In euro terms the ICE Rotterdam Monthly Coal Futures
contract fell 2% month-on-month and at US$73.20 /
mt, the ICE Rotterdam Monthly Coal Futures price
closed the month at its lowest level since September
2009. Barring any major supply cuts, there is nothing
to support prices with sources pointing out that
supply-demand fundamentals in Europe remain
bearish, with ample supply and high stocks at ports
and utilities being met by a lack of demand. Weakening
European gas prices are also helping to erode Europe’s
demand for gas. For example, the drop in UK natural
gas prices has made the fuel more profitable than coal
for more inefficient coal generation power plants in the
country’s energy mix, putting additional weight on the
already depressed coal market.
Having recorded a closing low of US$72.25 on June
24, prices recovered marginally toward the end of the
month on the news that the rail line transporting coal
from the mines owned by Cerrejon, Colombia’s largest
180
60
100
140
Points
Apr-14Jan-14Oct-13Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
4. Month-on-month the euro was unchanged versus
the US Dollar and weakened by 2% versus the British
Pound on the news that the Bank of England Deputy
Governor said that he would welcome an increase
in interest rates as a sign that the economy was
returning to normal. This news resulted in the British
pound reaching its strongest level against the euro
since September 2012. The pound received further
support after the Bank of England Governor said on
June 12 that borrowing costs may rise sooner than
economists are expecting. Before the Governor’s
comments, the market reckoned that the first rise
in UK rates would occur in spring of next year. After
them, the date shifted to the end of this year.
According to the Deputy Governor, a return to higher
interest rates in the UK is a strong indication that the
economy is returning to normal and a demonstration
that the economy is healing. As the UK is about
to embark on the path of normalization, the ECB
announced that it will take the deposit rate into
negative territory and there is a growing expectation
that it will start buying packaged securities in a bid to
Market Outlook
The threat to Iraq’s oil production capabilities and export potential by the emergence of ISIL had a significant impact on global oil prices in June. With
the globe’s spare production capacity already thin and with OECD commercial inventories being below their five-year seasonal range, oil prices were
already high before the escalation in violence in Iraq in anticipation of a rise in global demand over the summer months and beyond. According to the
IEA, global oil demand is set to increase sharply from a low of 91.4million b/d in the first quarter of 2014 to a high of 94million b/d in the fourth quarter.
Against this backdrop, a complete loss of Iraqi exports would have dramatic consequences for global oil prices and it is being reported that it would
not be inconceivable for prices to surpass the record highs reached in July 2008 (above US$145 intraday for Brent) with the world having no spare
capacity anywhere. Iraq is OPEC’s second largest crude producer. Against the loss of an estimated 3.5million b/d of global oil production over the last
few years, surging North American production and increased output from Saudi Arabia has stabilized the market but the loss of Iraqi oil would perilously
destabilise global oil supply-demand dynamics. However, the future course of the conflict is very uncertain and the majority of Iraqi oil is reportedly safe.
The rise and now potential fall of ISIL could have many positive supply effects such as the reopening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and expansion of
production and export from the Kurdistan region. It may also facilitate negotiations with Iran as the US and Iran have found some common ground in the
opposition to the Sunni led ISIL. However, it is a concern that sect conflict in the Middle East region is spreading, intensifying and appearing intractable
and such characteristics are not positive for oil prices. In addition, many of ISIL’s most violent frontline fighters are believed to be Saudi nationals who
may eventually come home, radicalised and brutalised by the conflict. This potentially makes Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of oil, vulnerable
to a backlash from ISIL by returning jihadists. The future security of Iraqi oil supplies is also of vital importance to the world. According to the IEA, Iraq
is expected to account for about 60% of the growth in OPEC crude production capacity over the rest of this decade so stability in Iraq is essential if the
world’s consumption of oil is to be satisfied.
Despite a continued softening in wholesale gas prices, the Ukraine crisis and gas dispute rumbles on. At the start of July Ukrainian forces launched a
full-scale military operation against pro-Russian separatists in the east following the end of a 10-day cease fire. Russia condemned Ukraine’s operation,
with President Vladimir Putin vowing to continue to protect ethnic Russians. The current gas dispute is taking place against this uncertain and potentially
volatile backdrop which adds an extra layer of complexity to the current “Gas War”.
The contents of this report are provided solely as an information guide. The report is presented to you “as is” and may or may not be correct, current, accurate or complete.
While every effort is made in preparing material for publication no responsibility is accepted by or on behalf of Bord Gáis Energy Limited, the SEMO, ICE Futures Europe,
the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland or Spectron Group Limited (together, the “Parties”) for any errors, omissions or misleading statements within this report. No
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or liability accepted by any of the Parties or any of their respective directors, employees or agents in relation to the
accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. Each of the Parties and their respective directors, employees or agents does not and will not accept any
liability in relation to the information contained in this report. Bord Gáis Energy Limited reserves the right at any time to revise, amend, alter or delete the information provided
in this report.
1 Mth -2% 3 Mth -3% 12 Mth -6% EURGBP
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Apr-14Jan-14Oct-13Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
FX Rates
For more information please contact:
Bord Gáis Energy – John Heffernan (Gas & Power Trader) 023 8895123/087 2407566
Re-weighting of Bord Gáis Energy Index
Following the SEAI’s 2011 review of energy consumption in Ireland, there was a 6.4% drop
in overall energy consumption. Oil continues to be the dominant energy source with most
of the oil used in transport and the remainder being used for thermal energy. For the
purposes of the Bord Gáis Energy Index, the total final energy consumption in Ireland
fell 1,089 ktoe (toe: a tonne of oil equivalent is a unit of energy, roughly equivalent to the
energy content of one tonne of crude oil) between 2009 and 2011. This fall was made
up of a 1,022 ktoe drop in oil consumption (down 13.5%), a 20 ktoe drop in natural gas
(down 12.6%), a 7 ktoe drop in electricity (down 0.3%) and a 40 ktoe drop in coal (down
10.98%). The Bord Gáis Energy Index has been re-weighted in January 2013 to reflect
the latest consumption data. The impact has been minimal and has resulted in slight
reductions in the share of oil and gas and a slight increase in the weighting of electricity
in the overall Index.
Electricity
20.22%
Coal
3.1%
Gas
14.72%
Oil 61.96%
FX Rates
1 Mth 0% 3 Mth -1% 12 Mth 5% EURUSD
tackle euro-area deflation. The paths being taken by both central banks are in sharp contrast, as are the economic challenges. The ECB is concerned that
the ultra-low borrowing costs are not filtering through to the real economy and are failing to drive investment and economic activity. These concerns
have invoked an old idea of secular stagnation and that the euro-area cannot rely on normal market mechanisms, such as cutting interest rates, to spur
growth further. With real interest rates unable to fall further and with the threat of deflation, there is a fear that further investment cannot be achieved
and that consumer spending will be delayed resulting in a chronic demand shortfall. The implications of these considerations are that the presumption
that normal economic conditions will return at some point is far from certain and that future euro-zone GDP will disappoint. The point is demonstrated
by the Japanese experience, with GDP being lower than predicted a generation ago, even thought interest rates have been at zero for many years.