The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in September despite rises in wholesale gas, electricity, and coal prices, driven by a 7% drop in Brent crude oil prices due to easing geopolitical tensions over Syria and Iran. UK wholesale gas prices rose 4% in September as utilities replenished depleted storage stocks, while electricity prices increased 5% due to higher gas and carbon prices. Coal prices increased 7% on short-covering and expectations of tighter supply.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index from June 2013.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was stable (-1%) in June as falls in the Irish wholesale electricity, UK Day-ahead gas and European coal prices were counteracted by a rising front month Brent crude oil price.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 4% in July due to weaker Brent crude oil, gas, and wholesale electricity prices. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continued as Russia suspended gas deliveries, while negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program were extended. Global oil supplies remained strong despite conflicts, weighing on prices. The euro weakened against the dollar and pound, partially offsetting declines in wholesale energy prices in euro terms. Wholesale coal prices rose 7% amid concerns that sanctions against Russia could disrupt supplies.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in May due to weaker wholesale gas and electricity prices, though the drop was softened by a weakening euro.
2) Brent crude oil prices were unchanged after recovering in previous months, but further gains are uncertain due to the ongoing oil supply glut.
3) Gazprom's profits declined in 2014 due to lower European demand, higher costs, and disputes with Ukraine over gas transit, and the company faces potential EU fines over antitrust issues.
Month-on-month the Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in January due to rising wholesale electricity prices as reduced availability of efficient power plants increased costs despite falling UK gas prices and record wind volumes. UK gas prices fell further in January due to ample supplies and continued mild weather, while the euro weakened against the US dollar and British pound on expectations of interest rate hikes in those economies amid positive economic data.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in February due to high wind generation and mild weather which lowered wholesale gas and electricity prices in both Ireland and the UK. Approximately 23% of Ireland's electricity was generated by wind, contributing to a 13% drop in wholesale electricity prices. Mild weather also reduced gas demand and prices fell 10% as storage levels increased. The Ukraine crisis did not initially impact prices but they spiked in early March due to concerns over European gas supplies from Russia through Ukraine.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% in October 2013 due to modestly softer wholesale gas and electricity prices in Ireland. While wholesale commodity prices were relatively stable, Brent crude oil prices experienced significant volatility within the month due to geopolitical events affecting supply in Libya. The Index level stood at 143 at the end of October.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in May due to declines in wholesale electricity, oil, coal, and natural gas prices from their record highs earlier in the year. Irish wholesale electricity prices fell 11% as UK gas prices softened and power imports from the UK increased with the new interconnecter cable. Brent crude prices fell slightly to around $100/barrel on expectations that increasing North American shale oil production would weaken global oil markets, while weaker economic data from China also weighed on oil prices. Coal and natural gas prices in Europe also declined from previous months' highs due to mild weather, high inventories, and a weak eurozone economy.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index from June 2013.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was stable (-1%) in June as falls in the Irish wholesale electricity, UK Day-ahead gas and European coal prices were counteracted by a rising front month Brent crude oil price.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 4% in July due to weaker Brent crude oil, gas, and wholesale electricity prices. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continued as Russia suspended gas deliveries, while negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program were extended. Global oil supplies remained strong despite conflicts, weighing on prices. The euro weakened against the dollar and pound, partially offsetting declines in wholesale energy prices in euro terms. Wholesale coal prices rose 7% amid concerns that sanctions against Russia could disrupt supplies.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in May due to weaker wholesale gas and electricity prices, though the drop was softened by a weakening euro.
2) Brent crude oil prices were unchanged after recovering in previous months, but further gains are uncertain due to the ongoing oil supply glut.
3) Gazprom's profits declined in 2014 due to lower European demand, higher costs, and disputes with Ukraine over gas transit, and the company faces potential EU fines over antitrust issues.
Month-on-month the Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in January due to rising wholesale electricity prices as reduced availability of efficient power plants increased costs despite falling UK gas prices and record wind volumes. UK gas prices fell further in January due to ample supplies and continued mild weather, while the euro weakened against the US dollar and British pound on expectations of interest rate hikes in those economies amid positive economic data.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in February due to high wind generation and mild weather which lowered wholesale gas and electricity prices in both Ireland and the UK. Approximately 23% of Ireland's electricity was generated by wind, contributing to a 13% drop in wholesale electricity prices. Mild weather also reduced gas demand and prices fell 10% as storage levels increased. The Ukraine crisis did not initially impact prices but they spiked in early March due to concerns over European gas supplies from Russia through Ukraine.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% in October 2013 due to modestly softer wholesale gas and electricity prices in Ireland. While wholesale commodity prices were relatively stable, Brent crude oil prices experienced significant volatility within the month due to geopolitical events affecting supply in Libya. The Index level stood at 143 at the end of October.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in May due to declines in wholesale electricity, oil, coal, and natural gas prices from their record highs earlier in the year. Irish wholesale electricity prices fell 11% as UK gas prices softened and power imports from the UK increased with the new interconnecter cable. Brent crude prices fell slightly to around $100/barrel on expectations that increasing North American shale oil production would weaken global oil markets, while weaker economic data from China also weighed on oil prices. Coal and natural gas prices in Europe also declined from previous months' highs due to mild weather, high inventories, and a weak eurozone economy.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index for September 2014 saw significant increases in the wholesale prices of Natural Gas (21%) and Electricity (17%). This was mostly offset by a fall in Brent Crude Oil as the Bord Gáis Energy Index rises by 3%.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged in May as rising Brent crude oil prices offset falling wholesale gas and electricity prices. Brent crude remained around $110 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about spare global oil capacity over the summer. Wholesale gas prices fell to 31⁄2 year lows due to high stock levels and mild winter demand. Electricity prices dropped 4% as gas-fired generation dominates Irish supply. The Euro weakened against the dollar and pound on expectations the ECB will cut rates in June to boost inflation and growth.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in October due to a 9% plunge in global oil prices from over $115 per barrel in June to $83.78 per barrel in October.
2) Wholesale natural gas prices in the UK increased 4% in October from seasonal higher demand despite record-high stock levels and mild weather so far.
3) The EU emissions trading scheme has failed to adequately incentivize the transition to low-carbon energy sources due to oversupply of carbon credits, keeping prices too low at around €6.59 per tonne of carbon emissions.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in April due to lower wholesale gas and electricity prices. Gas prices declined with healthy supply and lower demand, though tensions over Ukraine caused occasional price increases. Falling gas and carbon prices contributed to lower wholesale electricity prices in Ireland. Oil prices saw minor changes and remained in a narrow range.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% in December due to lower Irish wholesale electricity prices as a result of higher wind volumes which reduced costs. Brent crude oil prices were steady in December due to ongoing conflicts and supply disruptions in Libya and other regions. Natural gas and coal prices in Europe rose slightly over the month while the euro remained steady against the US dollar and British pound.
The February Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 16% month-over-month as the prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity all increased. The main driver was a nearly $10 per barrel increase in the price of oil due to falling US rig counts restricting future US oil production growth. Despite the rally in prices, oil remains well below its 2011-2014 price range of $100-120 per barrel due to continued oversupply. Demand growth is not expected to be strong enough in 2015 to significantly reduce inventories and support further price increases.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose in August due to concerns over global oil supplies stemming from conflicts and instability in Syria, Libya, and Egypt. Brent crude oil prices increased 6% due to threats to supply from the Suez Canal. The Index also rose as the wholesale gas price increased 2% and concerns grew over tightening oil markets with supply issues in Libya and Iraq.
Falling wholesale gas prices in the UK and weaker Brent crude oil prices drove a record month-on-month drop in Ireland's Bord Gáis Energy Index in April. UK gas prices eased back from March highs as supplies increased and demand decreased with warmer weather, while Brent crude fell below $100/barrel due to increased supplies and reduced demand concerns. Irish wholesale electricity prices also declined as the three main cost components - UK gas, carbon, and 'spark' rates - all decreased in April. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to remain around $100/barrel barring geopolitical events, with OPEC maintaining output, while UK gas prices may rise if summer LNG imports are lower than
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged in August as stronger wholesale gas, coal and electricity prices offset lower Brent crude oil prices. Higher gas, coal, and electricity prices were driven by supply restrictions, rising demand, and uncertainty around potential conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Lower Brent crude prices were due to increased African oil supply and soft global demand, despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in March as rising wholesale electricity prices offset falling oil and gas prices. Wholesale electricity prices increased 6% due to low wind volumes and forced outages of efficient gas and coal plants. Wholesale UK gas prices fell 5% amid mild weather and low demand, though concerns remain about potential disruptions to European gas supplies from Russia through Ukraine due to unpaid gas debts.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell in December due to ongoing declines in global oil prices, with the index at 103.
2) A major factor has been the surge in US oil production, which has increased 80% since 2008 and now dominates price behavior after OPEC chose not to cut production in November.
3) Lower oil prices are good for the global economy as consumers benefit but pose challenges for oil-dependent countries and economies that rely on oil revenues to fund budgets.
The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for April 2016. This issue makes a couple of key points re natural gas: (1) U.S. natural gas inventories just finished the winter heating season at their highest level ever, and are expected to be at a record high at the start of next winter heating season in November. (2) This summer natural gas consumption for electricity generation is expected to reach a record high. Here's the natgas section of the STEO, along with a copy of the full report.
- In December 2015, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 13% as wholesale prices for Brent crude oil, UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity all recorded losses. The index stood at another record low of 79.
- Prices continued to decline across the board, with oil falling 19% to close below $38/barrel for the first time in a decade due to oversupply and weak demand. Other fuels like UK gas and European coal also recorded losses.
- The euro strengthened against the US dollar and British pound over the month, exacerbating losses in the energy index which is adjusted for currency movements.
In the last month, crude oil prices gained over 11% on Nymex and over 13% on Brent due to estimates of production freezes by OPEC in September and rising demand from countries like India, China, and Russia. However, further upside is capped by slowing global economic growth forecasts. Natural gas production is expected to rise marginally due to low prices and declining rig activity, while demand is forecast to increase from the power sector. For both commodities, prices are expected to trade in defined ranges over the coming month.
- Brent crude oil prices increased in April to $42/barrel and are forecast to average $41/barrel in 2016 and $51/barrel in 2017, higher than previous forecasts. However, futures contracts suggest a wide range of possible prices in coming months.
- U.S. gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.21/gallon this summer, higher than previous forecasts but lower than last summer. U.S. crude oil production is expected to continue declining in 2016 and 2017 after peaking in 2015.
- Natural gas inventories are projected to reach record high levels by the end of October 2016, while prices are forecast to remain low in 2016 and 2017.
The September 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 6% due to excess global oil supplies weighing on oil prices, with Brent crude falling to its lowest point since March 2009 of $48.37 per barrel. The index stood at 91 in September, a new record low. The document also discusses the Volkswagen emissions scandal casting doubt on the future of diesel engines in Europe. While diesel demand has surged in Europe due to tax policies and fuel efficiency, the scandal uncovered that diesel vehicles were emitting nitrogen oxide at levels seven times the legal limit. Continued low oil prices are driven by a global supply glut as US frackers and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintain high production levels.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% in March as wholesale prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity all recorded losses. A framework agreement between Iran and world powers added downward pressure on oil prices by potentially adding 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil to global markets, though experts say this increase may not occur until 2016.
2) Natural gas prices in the UK fell as strong liquefied natural gas imports increased supplies. Coal prices also weakened due to high stock levels in Europe and declining demand from China.
3) Irish wholesale electricity prices fell due to lower gas and coal prices, but prices were also influenced by the intermittent pattern of wind power, which at times led to price
The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for December 2016. This issue makes a couple of key points re natural gas: (1) EIA predicts that natural gas production in the U.S. for 2016 will see a healthy decline over 2015 levels--1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) less in 2016. That's the first annual production decline since 2005! (2) The EIA predicts the average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub will climb from $2.49/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) in 2016 to a whopping $3.27/Mcf in 2017. Why the jump? Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports.
- Brent crude oil prices rose in June due to escalating violence in Iraq from the militant group ISIL seizing territory, raising concerns over global oil supply stability. However, the majority of Iraq's oil production and exports so far remain unaffected.
- Wholesale natural gas and electricity prices in Europe continued to decline due to ample gas supply, offsetting the rise in oil prices and leaving the Bord Gáis Energy Index unchanged month-over-month.
- Coal prices also fell slightly due to weak demand and high stockpiles in Europe.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index increased 3% in March as oil prices rallied over 5% on a currency adjusted basis. Other energy sources showed mixed performance, with UK gas down 1%, European coal down 3% and Irish electricity up 1%. Oil prices rebounded over 10% on expectations that a production freeze agreement between major producers will be reached in April to curb the global oil surplus. However, rebalancing the oil market may take time due to high global inventory levels. The euro strengthened against the US dollar and British pound.
- In January 2016, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 7% as wholesale prices declined for Brent crude oil (-7%), UK gas (-9%), European coal (-3%), and Irish electricity (-8%).
- Brent oil prices hit 12-year lows of $27.88/barrel in January due to oversupply and the lifting of Iranian sanctions.
- UK natural gas prices averaged 32.02 pence/therm in January, down from 34.16 pence/therm in December, as mild weather and ample supplies weighed on prices.
- Most energy commodity prices recorded losses in January as supply remained high and demand was weak.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index for September 2014 saw significant increases in the wholesale prices of Natural Gas (21%) and Electricity (17%). This was mostly offset by a fall in Brent Crude Oil as the Bord Gáis Energy Index rises by 3%.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged in May as rising Brent crude oil prices offset falling wholesale gas and electricity prices. Brent crude remained around $110 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about spare global oil capacity over the summer. Wholesale gas prices fell to 31⁄2 year lows due to high stock levels and mild winter demand. Electricity prices dropped 4% as gas-fired generation dominates Irish supply. The Euro weakened against the dollar and pound on expectations the ECB will cut rates in June to boost inflation and growth.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in October due to a 9% plunge in global oil prices from over $115 per barrel in June to $83.78 per barrel in October.
2) Wholesale natural gas prices in the UK increased 4% in October from seasonal higher demand despite record-high stock levels and mild weather so far.
3) The EU emissions trading scheme has failed to adequately incentivize the transition to low-carbon energy sources due to oversupply of carbon credits, keeping prices too low at around €6.59 per tonne of carbon emissions.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in April due to lower wholesale gas and electricity prices. Gas prices declined with healthy supply and lower demand, though tensions over Ukraine caused occasional price increases. Falling gas and carbon prices contributed to lower wholesale electricity prices in Ireland. Oil prices saw minor changes and remained in a narrow range.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% in December due to lower Irish wholesale electricity prices as a result of higher wind volumes which reduced costs. Brent crude oil prices were steady in December due to ongoing conflicts and supply disruptions in Libya and other regions. Natural gas and coal prices in Europe rose slightly over the month while the euro remained steady against the US dollar and British pound.
The February Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 16% month-over-month as the prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity all increased. The main driver was a nearly $10 per barrel increase in the price of oil due to falling US rig counts restricting future US oil production growth. Despite the rally in prices, oil remains well below its 2011-2014 price range of $100-120 per barrel due to continued oversupply. Demand growth is not expected to be strong enough in 2015 to significantly reduce inventories and support further price increases.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose in August due to concerns over global oil supplies stemming from conflicts and instability in Syria, Libya, and Egypt. Brent crude oil prices increased 6% due to threats to supply from the Suez Canal. The Index also rose as the wholesale gas price increased 2% and concerns grew over tightening oil markets with supply issues in Libya and Iraq.
Falling wholesale gas prices in the UK and weaker Brent crude oil prices drove a record month-on-month drop in Ireland's Bord Gáis Energy Index in April. UK gas prices eased back from March highs as supplies increased and demand decreased with warmer weather, while Brent crude fell below $100/barrel due to increased supplies and reduced demand concerns. Irish wholesale electricity prices also declined as the three main cost components - UK gas, carbon, and 'spark' rates - all decreased in April. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to remain around $100/barrel barring geopolitical events, with OPEC maintaining output, while UK gas prices may rise if summer LNG imports are lower than
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was unchanged in August as stronger wholesale gas, coal and electricity prices offset lower Brent crude oil prices. Higher gas, coal, and electricity prices were driven by supply restrictions, rising demand, and uncertainty around potential conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Lower Brent crude prices were due to increased African oil supply and soft global demand, despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in March as rising wholesale electricity prices offset falling oil and gas prices. Wholesale electricity prices increased 6% due to low wind volumes and forced outages of efficient gas and coal plants. Wholesale UK gas prices fell 5% amid mild weather and low demand, though concerns remain about potential disruptions to European gas supplies from Russia through Ukraine due to unpaid gas debts.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell in December due to ongoing declines in global oil prices, with the index at 103.
2) A major factor has been the surge in US oil production, which has increased 80% since 2008 and now dominates price behavior after OPEC chose not to cut production in November.
3) Lower oil prices are good for the global economy as consumers benefit but pose challenges for oil-dependent countries and economies that rely on oil revenues to fund budgets.
The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for April 2016. This issue makes a couple of key points re natural gas: (1) U.S. natural gas inventories just finished the winter heating season at their highest level ever, and are expected to be at a record high at the start of next winter heating season in November. (2) This summer natural gas consumption for electricity generation is expected to reach a record high. Here's the natgas section of the STEO, along with a copy of the full report.
- In December 2015, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 13% as wholesale prices for Brent crude oil, UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity all recorded losses. The index stood at another record low of 79.
- Prices continued to decline across the board, with oil falling 19% to close below $38/barrel for the first time in a decade due to oversupply and weak demand. Other fuels like UK gas and European coal also recorded losses.
- The euro strengthened against the US dollar and British pound over the month, exacerbating losses in the energy index which is adjusted for currency movements.
In the last month, crude oil prices gained over 11% on Nymex and over 13% on Brent due to estimates of production freezes by OPEC in September and rising demand from countries like India, China, and Russia. However, further upside is capped by slowing global economic growth forecasts. Natural gas production is expected to rise marginally due to low prices and declining rig activity, while demand is forecast to increase from the power sector. For both commodities, prices are expected to trade in defined ranges over the coming month.
- Brent crude oil prices increased in April to $42/barrel and are forecast to average $41/barrel in 2016 and $51/barrel in 2017, higher than previous forecasts. However, futures contracts suggest a wide range of possible prices in coming months.
- U.S. gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.21/gallon this summer, higher than previous forecasts but lower than last summer. U.S. crude oil production is expected to continue declining in 2016 and 2017 after peaking in 2015.
- Natural gas inventories are projected to reach record high levels by the end of October 2016, while prices are forecast to remain low in 2016 and 2017.
The September 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 6% due to excess global oil supplies weighing on oil prices, with Brent crude falling to its lowest point since March 2009 of $48.37 per barrel. The index stood at 91 in September, a new record low. The document also discusses the Volkswagen emissions scandal casting doubt on the future of diesel engines in Europe. While diesel demand has surged in Europe due to tax policies and fuel efficiency, the scandal uncovered that diesel vehicles were emitting nitrogen oxide at levels seven times the legal limit. Continued low oil prices are driven by a global supply glut as US frackers and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintain high production levels.
1) The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% in March as wholesale prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity all recorded losses. A framework agreement between Iran and world powers added downward pressure on oil prices by potentially adding 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil to global markets, though experts say this increase may not occur until 2016.
2) Natural gas prices in the UK fell as strong liquefied natural gas imports increased supplies. Coal prices also weakened due to high stock levels in Europe and declining demand from China.
3) Irish wholesale electricity prices fell due to lower gas and coal prices, but prices were also influenced by the intermittent pattern of wind power, which at times led to price
The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for December 2016. This issue makes a couple of key points re natural gas: (1) EIA predicts that natural gas production in the U.S. for 2016 will see a healthy decline over 2015 levels--1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) less in 2016. That's the first annual production decline since 2005! (2) The EIA predicts the average price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub will climb from $2.49/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) in 2016 to a whopping $3.27/Mcf in 2017. Why the jump? Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports.
- Brent crude oil prices rose in June due to escalating violence in Iraq from the militant group ISIL seizing territory, raising concerns over global oil supply stability. However, the majority of Iraq's oil production and exports so far remain unaffected.
- Wholesale natural gas and electricity prices in Europe continued to decline due to ample gas supply, offsetting the rise in oil prices and leaving the Bord Gáis Energy Index unchanged month-over-month.
- Coal prices also fell slightly due to weak demand and high stockpiles in Europe.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index increased 3% in March as oil prices rallied over 5% on a currency adjusted basis. Other energy sources showed mixed performance, with UK gas down 1%, European coal down 3% and Irish electricity up 1%. Oil prices rebounded over 10% on expectations that a production freeze agreement between major producers will be reached in April to curb the global oil surplus. However, rebalancing the oil market may take time due to high global inventory levels. The euro strengthened against the US dollar and British pound.
- In January 2016, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 7% as wholesale prices declined for Brent crude oil (-7%), UK gas (-9%), European coal (-3%), and Irish electricity (-8%).
- Brent oil prices hit 12-year lows of $27.88/barrel in January due to oversupply and the lifting of Iranian sanctions.
- UK natural gas prices averaged 32.02 pence/therm in January, down from 34.16 pence/therm in December, as mild weather and ample supplies weighed on prices.
- Most energy commodity prices recorded losses in January as supply remained high and demand was weak.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 4% in October due to higher prices for Brent crude oil, European coal, and wholesale electricity. A weaker euro contributed to higher prices for oil, coal, and gas, which are traded in dollars and pounds. Global gas supplies have expanded significantly in recent years due to new sources like shale gas, coal seam gas, and floating LNG facilities. This has led to a surplus of natural gas and lower wholesale gas prices in many markets like the UK. The oversupply situation could persist for some time as new LNG export capacity continues to come online through 2020.
The document discusses trends in global energy markets in 2014. It notes that oil prices plummeted towards the end of the year due to oversupply and weakening global economic growth. Natural gas prices also fell to four-year lows in Europe. Carbon prices in the EU rose as allowances were cut, but remain below levels needed to incentivize switching from coal to gas. Global coal prices continued a four-year downtrend due to weaker than expected demand growth.
Interesante analisis sobre los dividendos de la paz en Colombia,
“Colombia’ s peace deal could spur oil sector turnaround” (Acuerdos de paz en Colombia podrían estimular al sector petrolero),
The July 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% month-over-month due to weaker oil prices driven by abundant global supply. The index level of 98 was the lowest since December 2009. Brent crude oil prices continued to weaken, closing at the lowest price recorded by the index. The UK government announced plans to scrap an exemption to the Climate Change Levy for renewable electricity, contrary to the views of the green energy sector.
The June 2015 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% due to weaker oil prices. Oil prices slumped toward the end of June as economic crisis in Greece weakened the dollar. The oil glut remains with supply exceeding demand by almost 3 million barrels per day. Natural gas prices were marginally weaker. Coal prices recovered slightly but electricity prices fell 9% due to lower demand in summer and a softening in power prices.
1) The April Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 8% month-over-month as Brent crude oil prices increased nearly $12 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.
2) Robert Smithson argues that US tight oil production is more resilient to low prices than expected and that production costs are decreasing, suggesting oil prices may remain lower for longer.
3) Multiple factors including outages, declining spare capacity, and Middle East tensions supported higher oil prices in April, though stockpiles remain elevated and demand growth is expected to be modest.
The document discusses developments in gas, power, and carbon markets over the past week. UK gas and power prices rose due to lower expected LNG deliveries and nuclear availability in France. Coal prices reached their highest level since 2015 due to China's production cuts. Carbon prices followed gains in coal and oil. The outlook predicts gas and power prices remaining bullish due to tight supply and increasing demand as temperatures fall. An OECD report calls for higher global carbon prices to drive the emissions reductions needed to meet climate targets.
In February 2016, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% month-over-month. Oil prices rose 3% while UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity prices declined between 3-10% from the previous month. The report provides an overview of movements in prices for oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity in February and discusses factors influencing these markets such as supply and demand fundamentals as well as geopolitical issues.
This document is a weekly newsletter from TheEquicom providing analysis and commentary on commodity markets such as gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, copper, lead, zinc, and aluminum. It includes market wrap summaries on these commodities, with details on prices, trends, support and resistance levels, and trading strategies. Technical indicators and outlooks are provided on key commodities like gold, silver, crude oil, and copper. Pivot tables with price script levels are also included.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 9% in November 2014 to its lowest level in over four years as global oil prices continued to plunge. The document discusses factors contributing to declining oil prices such as increased North American oil production, OPEC's decision not to cut production, and geopolitical issues. It also summarizes trends in natural gas and coal markets, noting prices declines there as well driven by oversupply and weaker demand.
This document provides a weekly report on commodity markets covering gold, silver, base metals, energy, and agricultural commodities. It includes analysis of price movements and factors influencing prices for various commodities over the past week. It also provides outlooks, technical analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities in the coming periods. Pivot tables with support and resistance levels are also included.
Aranca views - Shale Gas - the Next Cradle of Energy?Aranca
As of 2013, recoverable shale gas resources account for nearly one third of the total gas energy resources of the world. The article highlights US, Europe, China, Canada & GCC region's shale gas statistics, impacts & consumption.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
Similar to September 2013 Energy Index - Bord Gáis Energy (15)
Industrial Tech SW: Category Renewal and CreationChristian Dahlen
Every industrial revolution has created a new set of categories and a new set of players.
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Unveiling the Dynamic Personalities, Key Dates, and Horoscope Insights: Gemin...my Pandit
Explore the fascinating world of the Gemini Zodiac Sign. Discover the unique personality traits, key dates, and horoscope insights of Gemini individuals. Learn how their sociable, communicative nature and boundless curiosity make them the dynamic explorers of the zodiac. Dive into the duality of the Gemini sign and understand their intellectual and adventurous spirit.
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https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
This PowerPoint compilation offers a comprehensive overview of 20 leading innovation management frameworks and methodologies, selected for their broad applicability across various industries and organizational contexts. These frameworks are valuable resources for a wide range of users, including business professionals, educators, and consultants.
Each framework is presented with visually engaging diagrams and templates, ensuring the content is both informative and appealing. While this compilation is thorough, please note that the slides are intended as supplementary resources and may not be sufficient for standalone instructional purposes.
This compilation is ideal for anyone looking to enhance their understanding of innovation management and drive meaningful change within their organization. Whether you aim to improve product development processes, enhance customer experiences, or drive digital transformation, these frameworks offer valuable insights and tools to help you achieve your goals.
INCLUDED FRAMEWORKS/MODELS:
1. Stanford’s Design Thinking
2. IDEO’s Human-Centered Design
3. Strategyzer’s Business Model Innovation
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2. Bord Gáis Energy Index drops 3%
despite increases in wholesale
gas, electricity and coal prices
Month-on-month the front month Brent crude
price fell 7% in euro terms as diplomatic progress
on both Syria’s chemical weapons and Iran’s
nuclear programme squeezed some of the risk out
of the market.
At the beginning of September the front month
Brent crude oil price traded above US$116 a
barrel due to numerous supply disruptions and
heightened geopolitical tensions. According to the
EIA, unplanned OPEC and non-OPEC crude and
liquid disruptions hit a significant 2.7 million b/d
in August. The EIA assigned the production falls
to Iran (600,000 b/d due to unplanned outages),
Iraq (250,000 b/d), Libya (1 million b/d due to the
deterioration in the security environment and the
closure of key oil exporting facilities, pipelines and
Summary:
Despite rising wholesale gas, coal and electricity
prices, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in
September 2013 due to falling Brent crude oil
prices.
In September 2013 the Index stood at 143 and
recorded its first month-on-month drop since June
2013.
Surprisingly, UK Wholesale Day-ahead gas prices
in September continued to rise and traded at levels
similar to those seen during the high demand
months of winter as market participants feverishly
replenished depleted stocks over the summer
months. As a result of the unique and evolving
gas demand and supply dynamics of 2013, the
average Day-ahead price this year far exceeds that
of recent years. On the plus side, the risk premium
associated with oil prices was partially squeezed
out of the market as the real and potential threat
to oil supplies eroded in September.
1 Mth -7% 3 Mth 2% 12 Mth -8%
1 Mth -3% 3 Mth 6% 12 Mth -5%
60
100
140
180
Points
Bord Gáis Energy Index 12 Month Rolling Average
Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
60
100
140
180
Points
Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100)
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
fields), Nigeria (290,000 b/d), South Sudan (170,000 b/d due to the shut-ins and natural field declines), Syria (220,000 b/d), Yemen
(100,000 b/d due to the repeated disruption to the Marib-Ras Isa pipeline), Brazil (50,000 b/d) and the North Sea (40,000 b/d). These
outages combined with relatively low surplus production capacity, created a tight world oil market in recent months and the front month
Brent crude oil price had been rising since mid-April.
By mid-September oil prices started to weaken as the supply picture began to improve and most significantly, geopolitical tensions
started to ease. The potential threat from an escalation of Syria’s civil war was defused following the unanimous adoption by the UN
Security Council of a binding resolution on ridding Syria of chemical weapons. The resolution demands that Syria abandon its chemical
weapons stockpile and for weapons experts to be given unfettered access to make sure it is dismantled by the middle of next year. Iran’s
so-called ‘charm offensive’ and a historic phone call between an American and Iranian president helped raise the prospect of a resolution
to the long standing nuclear dispute between Iran and the West. Since the imposition of sanctions it is estimated that Iran’s crude exports
have fallen from 2.2 million b/d to less than 900,000 b/d. Bank of America said its analysis suggest that a ‘positive supply shock’ of 1
million b/d could push oil prices down by US$20 a barrel, although it added that Saudi Arabia could cushion the blow by reining in output
from current production. However, it is estimated that it may take years to bring Iranian oil output back to pre-sanction levels and that the
window for a deal on the nuclear issue is likely to be open for a relatively short time and that positions could harden if negotiations fail to
produce tangible results in the next few months. The restart of some oil fields and the resumption of crude oil loadings at some export
terminals in Libya following strikes and protests has helped ease the tightness seen in oil markets. Oil supplies were further bolstered by
the ramping up of South Sudan’s oil production following its landmark deal with its northern neighbour Sudan to ensure the transit of
South Sudanese crude for export to world markets. Production also restarted at the giant Majnoon oil field in southern Iraq which is one
of the world’s biggest oil fields and which will support Iraq’s crude oil export target of 2.6 million b/d in October. The seasonal decline
in oil consumption in Middle-Eastern countries will also help alleviate the oil market tightness.
Oil prices did receive some support by the US Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to delay tapering its monthly bond purchases. However,
this was counter-balanced at the end of the month by the prospect of a US government shutdown and a crisis for Italy’s government.
Oil Index Oil
3. Points
Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
50
100
150
200
250
300
60
100
140
180
Points
Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
In euro terms the ICE Rotterdam Monthly Coal Futures
contract was 7% higher month-on-month.
Throughout the month there was an upward momentum
to prices despite a number of bearish factors such as
healthy stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, the
ending of a 53-day strike at Drummond’s Colombian
coal mine and port operations and the successful and
unexpected aversion of another strike at the rail company
that operates the line connecting Colombian thermal
coal mines with export terminals.
Higher coal prices have been attributed to: short-covering
as prices rise, rising capesize freight rates between
Puerto Bolivar and Rotterdam, market certainty and
renewed buying following the end of Drummond workers’
strike, utilities taking advantage of high German clean
sparks spreads and a growing belief among traders that
the coal market will be tighter than expected following
In September the monthly average Irish wholesale
electricity price rose 5% month-on-month with the
combination of rising wholesale gas and carbon prices
and higher ‘clean sparks’ (the ‘clean spark’ is the
theoretical gross margin of a gas-fired power plant
from selling a unit of electricity, having bought the fuel
required to produce this unit of electricity and the cost
of abating the carbon emitted).
As the Irish wholesale electricity price is highly correlated
to the Day-ahead price of wholesale gas in the UK, the
4% rise recorded in the September gas price applied
upward pressure. Secondly, carbon allowances rallied
in September, driven by strength in the German power
price which caused a short-squeeze in the carbon market.
On the 17 September, the 2013 carbon price closed at
€5.68 per m/t. This was the highest closing price since
January 2013. The price increase has been associated
In euro terms, the average Day-ahead gas price for
September was 4% higher month-on-month. The month-
on-month increase is significant as the August price was
the strongest monthly average gas price recorded for
a summer since the market was established in the late
1990s, according to Platts. Over the summer months,
wholesale gas prices were in line with levels seen last
December and January which is due to unprecedented
demand for gas storage injections following the complete
depletion of stocks in March 2013. The greater need for
gas storage injections was met with very low Qatari
LNG deliveries which increased the UK’s dependence on
Norwegian and Russian gas.
The UK Day-ahead gas price traded as high as 67.25p
a therm in the middle of the month to a closing low of
63.30p at the end of the month. Prices in early to mid-
September were supported by a spell of cooler weather
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
1 Mth 4% 3 Mth 13% 12 Mth 4%
1 Mth 7% 3 Mth 6% 12 Mth -12%
1 Mth 5% 3 Mth 12% 12 Mth -1%
Points
Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
40
95
150
205
260
Natural Gas Index
Coal Index
Electricity Index
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: Spectron Group
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
Data Source: SEMO
the delayed return of Drummond’s coal cargoes to Europe. It is estimated that 3.4 million m/t of thermal coal had been lost due to the 53-day
dispute and that the slower than expected normalization of loading operations could tighten the European coal market in the last three months of
the year. Other contributory factors include a weaker US Dollar vis-à-vis the euro, a slight escalation in traders’ anxieties as the high demand months
of winter 13/14 approach, a single large buyer forcing the market upward, and reduced Russian coal exports due to relatively low European prices.
Over the last two years global thermal coal prices have been on a sustained downward trajectory due to a chronic oversupply of coal. According
to Societe Generale, a sustained recovery in prices is unlikely before the first half of 2014 and that price increases would only be supported by
continued discipline on the supply side. It is expected that Chinese and Indian thermal coal demand will support prices in 2014 and that the floor
price will be determined by the marginal cost of production from expensive production sources such as Russia and the US east coast.
in Britain which coincided with maintenance. The planned maintenance work at Norway’s Kaarstoe gas processing plant reduced gas production
by 55 million cubic metres per day for most of the month. Norwegian gas production capacity is set to remain curtailed by 34 million cubic metres
through to September next year amid continuing compressor problems at the Troll swing field. Mild weather, healthy gas supplies and storage entry
restrictions at the end of the month meant that Day-ahead prices fell 4p a therm amid a well supplied market. Despite a return to milder weather at
the back-end of the month, the average monthly demand for gas in the UK was 154 million cubic metres, a month-on-month increase of 15 million
cubic metres. As at the end of September, the UK’s storage facilities were 87% full heading into winter 13/14 which commenced on 1 October 2013.
As the UK’s storage facilities came close to empty in March and wholesale gas prices soared, a debate commenced on whether or not the UK needed
to invest in more seasonal storage. The small spread between summer and winter contracts has made new build storage projects uneconomical.
Following the UK government’s announcement in September not to intervene in the market to encourage additional gas storage capacity, UK utility
Centrica decided not to proceed with their projects. Disappointingly, only three LNG cargoes arrived at British shores in September.
Looking ahead, the front seasons (winter 13/14 and summer 14) both weakened during the month. The winter price weakened on a combination
of mild weather at the back-end of September and a sense of readiness for the months ahead. Summer 2014 weakened in harmony with weaker
oil prices.
with higher German power prices. Higher power prices were in turn driven by a lack of rainfall in Europe, denting hydroelectric power availability,
and unplanned outages in German thermal power and French nuclear availability. Irish ‘clean sparks’ were supported by an increasing number of
thermal generator starts (which increased the overall system cost and applied some further upward pressure to prices), the loss of a number of
efficient plants and relatively cheap UK imports due to maintenance and outages, and the relatively rare use of expensive distillate units to provide
short bursts of power to balance the system in the month.
4. Month-on-month the euro continued to strengthen
versus the US Dollar.
The negative market sentiment toward the US Dollar
during the month has been stimulated by three factors.
Firstly, some key economic data releases in September
were on the soft side. The August non-farm payrolls
rose less than expected and the unemployment rate
fell for the wrong reasons as people exited the labour
market, having given up trying to find work. This was
followed by poor retail sales numbers and evidence that
US consumer confidence is weakening. Secondly the
unexpected decision by the Fed to maintain its bond-
buying programme at US$85 billion a month weighed
on the currency as it means that freshly printed US
Dollars will continue to flood the system and that there
are question marks over the strength of the economy.
The Fed’s decision reveals that it is worried that any
tightening in financial conditions could dampen the
economic growth and the labour market. Thirdly, the
partial shutdown of the US government after the two
With the winter 13/14 gas season commencing on 1 October there will be an increasing focus on future gas supplies and prices. As always Mother
Nature will be the primary driver of wholesale gas prices during the peak demand winter heating season. A key concern for traders is the fact that
Norwegian gas production capacity is set to remain curtailed by 34 million cubic metres through to September 2014 amid continuing compressor
problems at the Troll swing field. According to Reuters, the Troll outage significantly limits flexibility to ramp-up Norwegian production to meet
peak demand in severe weather conditions. In 2012/13 Norwegian exports to the UK were 16% higher than the previous year. Should Norwegian
supplies not meet demand in case of a cold British winter, UK customers could begin importing increasing volumes of gas from continental Europe,
which receives most of its gas from Russia. However, this switch could come at a cost as it could inflate wholesale UK prices to attract flows into
Britain. Russia sells most of its gas under long-term contracts linked to the price of oil. Russian gas exports to Europe rose by 14% during January
- August. Falling supplies of LNG from supplies such as Qatar due to the price premiums being offered by Japan and South Korea further restricts
the UK’s gas supply sources. On this point in September Japan shutdown its last functioning nuclear reactor, with no timetable for a restart. On a
positive note, the outlook for LNG delivery to the UK may improve from January 2014, with the news that Petronas has signed a 5 year deal with
Qatargas, to supply gas to the Dragon LNG facility in the UK.
Future oil prices will be linked to diplomatic progress on Syria and Iran with the signs being positive in September. However, Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has warned against working with the Iranian government and has described Iran’s President as a ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’ in
a speech to the UN General Assembly. Iran is due to take part in what has been described as ‘substantive negotiations’ on its nuclear programme
in Geneva on 15 October with a group of nations known as the P5+1, which include the US, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany. A removal
of the geopolitical ‘fear premium’ could take US$10 or more off the price of Brent crude oil.
Other factors that could potentially weigh on the price of oil in the months ahead include: the impact of tapering on the ‘Fragile Five’ (being the loss
of the cheap cash injections on those emerging economies with large current account deficits - Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey and India)
given that the expected growth in oil demand is associated with emerging economies; the economic impact of a failure by the US Government
not to raise the debt ceiling; and a forecast growth in non-OPEC supply by over 1 million b/d in 2014.
For more information please contact:
Fleishman-Hillard — James Dunny — 086 388 3903
Bord Gáis Energy — Aoife Donohoe — 087 773 3344
The contents of this report are provided solely as an information guide. The report is presented to you “as is” and may or may not be correct, current, accurate or
complete. While every effort is made in preparing material for publication no responsibility is accepted by or on behalf of Bord Gáis Eireann, the SEMO, ICE Futures
Europe, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland or Spectron Group Limited (together, the “Parties”) for any errors, omissions or misleading statements within this
report. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or liability accepted by any of the Parties or any of their respective directors, employees or agents
in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. Each of the Parties and their respective directors, employees or agents does
not and will not accept any liability in relation to the information contained in this report. Bord Gáis Eireann reserves the right at any time to revise, amend, alter or
delete the information provided in this report.
1 Mth 2% 3 Mth 4% 12 Mth 5% EURUSD
1 Mth -2% 3 Mth -2% 12 Mth 5% EURGBP
Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11Apr-11Jan-11Oct-10Jul-10Apr-10Jan-10Oct-09Jul-09Apr-09Jan-09
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
FX Rates
Re-weighting of Bord Gáis Energy index
Following the SEAI’s 2011 review of energy consumption in Ireland, there was a 6.4%
drop in overall energy consumption. Oil continues to be the dominant energy source with
most of the oil used in transport and the remainder being used for thermal energy. For
the purposes of the Bord Gáis Energy Index, the total final energy consumption in Ireland
fell 1,089 ktoe (toe: a tonne of oil equivalent is a unit of energy, roughly equivalent to the
energy content of one tonne of crude oil) between 2009 and 2011. This fall was made up
of a 1,022 ktoe drop in oil consumption (down 13.5%), a 20 ktoe drop in natural gas (down
12.6%), a 7 ktoe drop in electricity (down 0.3%) and a 40 ktoe drop in coal (down 10.98%).
The Bord Gáis Energy Index has been re-weighted in January 2013 to reflect the latest
consumption data. The impact has been minimal and has resulted in slight reductions in the
share of oil and gas and a slight increase in the weighting of electricity in the overall Index.
houses of Congress failed to agree a new budget could impact economic growth and this uncertainty weighed on the Dollar. The outcome of the
upcoming Congress vote to allow the government to borrow more than its current US$16.7 trillion so-called debt ceiling will be watched closely
by currency traders in the weeks ahead.
The British Pound gained versus the euro month-on-month on the back of a number of positive economic releases. ‘Red-hot’ business surveys,
falling unemployment, rising productivity, an expanding service sector and a strong and confident housing market all suggest the UK economy
is improving. Indeed, the final estimates of UK Q2 GDP confirmed that almost all the boxes required for a recovery are in place. This positivity
is raising the market’s expectation of higher rates and this in turn is supporting the Pound. The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates at present
or lower levels for an extended period of time weighed on the currency in September as did the ECB’s forecast of a slow and gradual recovery
in 2014. Speculation that the ECB will pump liquidity into the financial system also weighed on the currency. With inflation at a three year low of
1.1% in September, there are not many indicators pointing to an imminent rate rise either. The potential collapse of the Italian government at the
end of the month added to the potential risks to the euro zone’s recovery. Investors are relying on the current Prime Minister to guarantee Italy’s
deficit targets and deliver the stimulus needed to end the country’s recession. The euro has surged this year as the currency bloc emerged from
its longest-ever recession but this strength is a problem for the region’s global competitiveness.
Electricity
20.22%
Coal
3.1%
Gas
14.72%
Oil 61.96%
FX Rates
Market Outlook