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NIKE VALUATION
VALUE ASSESSMENT
APRIL 12, 2015
STEFANO DI ROSA
LECTURER: DR. NED GANDEVANI
EUROPEAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS
1
Table of Contents
Executive Summary……...……………….………………………….…….………………….2
1. Introduction……………………………………………………….….……….……….......3
2. Company overview.........……..…………………………………….……….….…………..4
3. Valuation...…………………………………………………………………..….…………..5
3.1 Discounted Cash Flow......…………………………………….………......………5
3.1.1 Estimating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).......................6
3.1.1.1 Calculating cost of equity capital...............................................6
3.1.1.2 Calculating cost of debt capital..................................................9
3.1.1.3 Determining the capital structure.............................................10
3.1.2 Forecasting Free Cash Flow........................... …………………………11
3.1.3 Estimating terminal value of the company…..................………………14
3.1.4 Calculating and interpreting results.........................................................14
3.2 Market Multiples....................................................................................................16
4. Advantages and limitations of the two methods..................................................................18
5. Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………......20
References......………………………………………………………………………………..21
2
Executive Summary
This paper aims to provide a valuation of Nike, Inc. (NKE), the U.S multinational company
which designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, equipment, accessories for men, women
and kids worldwide.
The firm valuation is based on two methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Market
Multiples.
The DCF provided BUY signal for NKE’s stock with a target price of $145.77. However,
valuation based on market multiples gave a SELL signal.
Although market multiples is most common method used by investors to value stocks, the
DCF model is the most reliable model to calculate the intrinsic value of a company.
Therefore the analysis makes BUY recommendation for NKE.
3
1. Introduction
Investment Bankers, research analysts, companies, venture capitalists and a number of other
parties do valuate a company for several and often different reasons. Investment bankers
usually valuate a private company when they assist it to the Initial Public Offering. Equity
research analyse public companies in order to provide recommendations on the public shares
such as buy, sell or hold the stock. Venture capitalists in general perform valuation of start-up
companies need capital for growth purposes. Even lenders do valuation analysis in order to
understand the value of the assets used by borrowers as collateral for secured debt.
There are a lot of valuation methodologies and each stakeholder uses that best fits to own
goals. In general, the purpose of valuing companies is to provide shareholders, and whatever
else kind of stakeholders a reasonable current value of the company. Different approaches are
used to define this value but some general guidelines apply to all of them (Steiger, 2008) For
example private equities company tend to valuate companies using precedent transactions
method which include premium paid for control and equity analyst generally adopt DCF and
market multiples. There is not best method, but every method must be fine-tuned according to
the goal of the valuation.
The purpose of this paper is providing a buy, sell or hold recommendation of Nike Inc.
(NKE), therefore the methodologies applied can be associated to the ones adopted by the
Equity analysts.
The structure of the project involves a brief description of the company object of the
valuation. Then, the analysis start with the DCF method. Next, the second valuation based on
market multiples. Comparison of the results is the next step. Finally, a critical evaluation of
these methodologies highlighting pros and cons .
4
2. Company Overview
Nike Inc. along with its subsidiaries designs, manufactures, market and sells athletic
footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories for men, women and kids worldwide
(www.finance.yahoo.com ). It was established in 1964 in Beaverton, OR. Main categories
Nike sells are running, basketball, football, golf, training and sportswear in general.
Moreover, Nike has been developing a segment line of performance equipment such as
digital devices, timepieces, eyewear and other technological equipment to improve athletic
performance. It also provides an App for IOS, Android and Windows mobile devices to
check running and training performances. Nike sells own products to footwear stores,
sporting goods stores, department stores, skate, other retail accounts through NIKE-owned
retail stores and Internet Websites (direct to consumer operations) and a mix of independent
distributors and licensees.
Nike shares are listed in New York Stock Exchange, and according to Bloomberg. Com its
sector is: Consumer Discretionary; the industry is: Apparel & Textile products; and sub-
industry is: Apparel, Footwear and Acc. Design.
Below a couple of images of the most recent Nike products.
5
3. Valuation
In order to calculate the value of Nike and therefore provide recommendation buy, sell or
hold the stock, it will be initially developed a valuation based on discounted cash flow model
including a brief description of the model showing what are the steps involved in. Then, the
second part of the paper envisages Nike’s valuation via market multiples such as Enterprise
Value/EBITDA, EV/Revenue and Price/Earnings.
3.1 Discounted Cash Flow
The Discounted Cash Flow approach discounts free cash flow, that is the cash flow available
to all investors such as equity holders, debt holders, and any other non-equity investors at the
weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which represents the blended cost for all investor
capital (Koller, Goedhart, Wessels, 2010). The main goal of DCF is to provide the intrinsic
value of a company. In other words, the value of the firm is calculated by discounting future
cash flows at the weighted cost of capital ,which represents the cost of the different source of
financing of the company, weighted by their market value proportions (Damodaran, 2001).
Essentially, the DCF involves four main steps to provide the intrinsic value of a company:
1. Estimating WACC
2. Forecasting Free Cash Flow
3. Estimating terminal value of the company
4. Calculating and interpreting results
6
3.1.1 Estimating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is a weighted average of the required rates of
return for each of the different sources of capital e.g., equity, preferred and debt. It reflects
the cost of each type of capital weighted by the respective percentage of each type of
capital assumed for the company’s optimal capital structure:
WACC = [Re * (E/(V)] + [Rp * (P/(V)] + [(Rd * (D/(V)) + (1-t)]
o Re = cost of equity
o Rd = cost of debt
o Rp = cost of preferred stock
o E = market value of equity of subject company
o D = fair market value of debt (same as face value unless distressed) of subject
company
o P = value of preferred
o V = total value of company
o T = tax rate
3.1.1.1 Calculating cost of equity capital
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is adopted to estimate the cost of equity capital for
Nike. It basically states the cost of equity capital is a function of the risk free rate, the relative
risk of the company (beta) and market risk premium. The formula is:
CAPM = rf + β * (rm – rf) whereby (rm-rf) whereby rm is the expected rate of return for the
market.
7
We use as risk free rate proxy U.S Treasury Bond 10Yr because it includes premiums for
default, credit, liquidity and inflation risk. Moreover, being stocks a financial instrument for
investors with long-run horizon to use T-Notes rather than T-Bills looks more reasonable.
From www.bloomberg.com we get risk free rate of 1.95%.
Table 1. U.S Government Bonds Yields. Source: www.Bloomberg.com
Beta measures the risk of the stock related to the market. It is calculated by the following
formula:
β= Cov (rm, rs) / Var (rm)
Being Nike a large cap company we can use the S&P 500 as a proxy for the overall market.
When stock’s Beta is 1 signals that the stock price should have the same behavior of the
market in terms of risk and return. Hence if for example the market increases of 1% so the
stock should increase of 1% as well. Beta of less than 1 signals lower systematic risk than the
market and a stock with a higher beta than 1 signals that it has a higher systematic risk than
the market. From Finance.Yahoo.com we get a beta for Nike of 0.51 as shown below.
8
Nevertheless, empiric evidence showed phenomena as low beta anomaly, which
demonstrated low beta stocks outperformed high beta stocks.
Table 2. Nike Beta. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
In order to determine the expected return of the market we can assume that the historical
returns represent a good proxy for the future. As already mentioned, being Nike a large cap
company, S&P500 is a reasonable choice as its relative market. Taking the 10Yr. average
total returns from Morningstar.com we get rm= 8.13%.
Table 3. S&P500 average returns. Source: Morningstar.com
Now we have all input to compute the Nike’s cost of equity capital.
Cost of Equity Capital Beta Assumptions
10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 1.95%
Expected market return 8.13%
Beta 0.51
Cost of Equity 7.09%
Exhibit 1. N ike 's c o s t o f e quity
9
3.1.1.2 Calculating cost of debt
Once computed cost of equity capital, the next step envisages to estimate the Nike’s cost of
debt. From Moody.com we first identify the Nike’s long term rating which is A1 as shown
below.
Table 4. Nike’s long term rating. Source: Moody.com
Then, we identify the 10Yr Corporate Bond rating associated with the Nike’s rating in Yahoo
Finance. For Nike A1 Bond is 2.96%.
Table 5. Corporate Bonds Yield. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
In order to calculate the after tax cost of debt we use the marginal rate which is the tax rate
paid on the next dollar of income. We assume it is 35%. Applying this tax rate we get Nike’s
after tax cost of debt = 1.924%.
10
3.1.1.3 Determining the capital structure
The next step in order to calculate the Nike’s WACC is to determine its capital structure. To
identify the weight of the equity we need two inputs: shares outstanding and share price. We
will use the share price at May 31, 2014 as it is more appropriate it coincides with book value
of debt. The share price at that date is $ 76.24.
Table 6. Nike share price at May 31, 2014. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
The shares outstanding at that date were 859.750.000. Hence market value of equity is
$65.547million. Book value of debt al last 10-K released (May 31, 2014) was $1.373million.
Table 7. Nike book value of debt. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
11
Therefore the enterprise value results to be $66.920m and We=97.25% and Wd=2.05%.
Applying the formula we get the Nike’s WACC is 6.98%.
3.1.2 Forecasting free cash flow
The second step of the DCF is to compute and project free cash flow to infinity. The idea
behind the DCF model is a going concern company. Hence, we project free cash flow for
three years and then we calculate the terminal value. In order to project free cash flow over
three years is essential to determine the growth rate. It can be computed in three ways:
1. Historical growth rates. Historical EPS, dividends or revenues may provide an
average value to identify the growth rate of the company.
2. Analysts’ consensus. Financial info providers such as Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg
do estimate and assumption on the growth rates of public companies. Otherwise the
company provides useful guidance of future growth rate on SEC filings such as 10-K
and 10-Q.
3. Dividend Pay-out Ratio. Another indicator of the growth rate can be obtained via the
following formula: g= ROE (1- DPR) where ROE is return on equity and DPR is the
dividend pay-out ratio.
Market share price $76.24
Shares outstanding 859,750,000
Market value of equity $65,547,340,000
Book value of debt $1,373,000,000
Enterprise Value $66,920,340,000
Equity to Enterprise Value 97.95%
Debt to Enterprise Value 2.05%
Cost of equity capital 7.09%
After tax cost of debt 1.924%
WACC 6.98%
Exhibit 2. Nike's WACC
WACC Analysis
12
Furthermore, a consideration deserves to be widened. Average industry revenue growth
varies significantly across industries, and often time there are even large differences between
firms within the same industry. In fact, some sectors (IT services, telecom, health-care) had
annual growth rate in excess than sectors like food products and department stores in the
period between 1997-2007 (McKinsey Corporate Performance Centre Analysis, 2010). The
reason stems from structural factors such as changes in customer demand or competition
from substitute products. But also the business cycle affects some industries more than
others.
Coming back to Nike’s valuation, we assume a growth rate of 10% for year 1, 6% for year 2
and 9% for year 3 as indicated by the Nike’s management during the last financial report.
After year 3, we assume a constant growth rate of the 4% forever although the estimated
average growth rate of the revenues from the 2012 to 2017 would be higher. However,
comparing this rate to the median of the industry “Apparel Retail” provided McKinsey which
computed a historical growth rate of 7% for Nike industry in the period 1997-2007 and taking
account that the years from the 2012 throughout the 2015 have been catching an upward
trend post-recession, and being Nike a company at a mature stage of life cycle, we assume an
estimate of the constant growth rate of the 4% for Nike is more appropriate.
After estimating growth rate, the next step is to identify the components of free cash flow.
We are going to implement a top down approach computing the free cash flow starting from
the EBIT because such an approach allows to measure free cash flows to the unlevered firm
determining the operating value of a firm independent of its capital structure (Bear Sterns,
2005). Free cash flow equals:
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 perpetuity
Growth Rate - 10% 6% 9% 4%
Exhibit 1. Nike's Growth Rate
13
EBIT
Less: Taxes
Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: (Increase) / Decrease in working capital
Add: Depreciation and Amortization
The starting point of this stage is the EBIT because the objective is to get the unlevered free
cash flow and EBIT is available to all stakeholders. It excludes interest expense and hence it
is not affected by debt and capital structure. Kicking off from EBIT allows to determine
enterprise value of the company. To get the market value of the company the debt will be
subtracted from the EV.
Tax rate is generally the company’s marginal tax rate which in the U.S. and we assume it to
be 35%. We do not use actual taxes paid by Nike for two main reasons. The first is that the
actual taxes include savings because of the interest expense. Secondly, we use marginal taxes
since we assume that the company will not be able to get the deductions in perpetuity or defer
a portion of their taxes till perpetuity. Change in the working capital is the increase or
decrease in working capital from prior year. Increase in working capital is generally a
reduction of cash flow and vice versa. Capital expenditure is subtracted as it is a use of cash
and depreciation and amortization is added because it is a non-cash charge.
Using Nike’s Financial Statements we calculate the unlevered free cash flow at year 0. The
FCF per the year 0 is $3.143b as shown in the exhibit 2 below.
14
Since we get the FCF for the year zero, we are able to project the FCF for next three years
utilizing the growth rate assumed earlier.
3.1.3 Estimating terminal value of the company
In order to estimate the Nike’s terminal value we will implement the Gordon growth method.
As explained in the previous section, we assume a constant growth rate of 4%. It represent
the perpetual growth rate by which the company is supposed to grow forever by the end of
the 3 years. Again, the growth rate assumed is slightly lower than historical Nike’s growth
rate, nevertheless we have also to consider the average long-term expected rate of GDP
growth or inflation since companies cannot grow at a high growth rate till perpetuity. To
calculate terminal value, we multiply the third year’s free cash by 1 plus the chosen growth
rate, and then divide by the discount rate less the growth rate:
TV= FCF(2017)*(1+g) / (WACC-g)
Applying the Gordon’s method, Nike’s terminal value is $139.422billion as shown below.
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0
EBIT $3,680
Less: Taxes 1,288
Debt-Free Earnings $2,392
Less: Capital Expenditures -880
Less: Working Capital Requirements 999
Add: Depreciation and Amortization 632
Net Investment $751
Unlevered Free Cash Flow: $3,143
Exhibit 2. FCF(0)
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
FCF $3,143,000,000 $3,457,000,000 $3,665,000,000 $3,995,000,000
Growth Rate - 10% 6% 9%
Exhibit 3. Forecasted FCF
15
3.1.4 Calculating and interpreting results
The final step of the DCF is discounting future cash flows and terminal value at WACC and
add all the present value of all cash flow to get the Nike’s enterprise value.
We get Nike’s Enterprise Value of $126.698billion. Since it represents the EV we subtract
the Book value of the debt from it to obtain the Market Value of Equity which is
$125.324billion. Being 860million shares outstanding, we get Nike’s intrinsic value is
$145.77. As Intrinsic Value is higher than market value = $145.77>$99.97, we have a BUY
signal.
Based on DCF model, we are establishing a target price of 145.77 for NKE. Clearly going-
concern companies such as Nike are very sensitive to changes in the terminal growth rate and
discount rate. Therefore, it looks reasonable to provide a sensitivity analysis for investors
who would like to use different assumptions for NKE. From the sensitivity analysis, we see
only 3 out 25 results are below current price. Therefore the buy signal looks reasonable even
modifying assumptions on WACC and perpetual growth rate.
FCF (2017) $3,995,000,000
constant grow th rate 4%
WACC 6.98%
TV $139,422,818,792
Exhibit 4. Nike's TerminalValue
Terminal Value
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 TV
FCF $3,143,000,000 $3,457,000,000 $3,665,000,000 $3,995,000,000 $139,422,818,792
Growth Rate $3,143,000,000 $3,231,300,355 $3,202,063,031 $3,262,500,824 $113,859,089,158
Enterprise Value $126,697,953,368
Book Value of Debt 1,373,000,000$
Market Value 125,324,953,368$
Shares Outstanding 859,750,000
Nike's Intrinsic value 145.77$
BUY $145.77>$99.97
Exhibit 4. Nike's IntrinsicValue
16
3.2 Market Multiples
The idea behind the valuation based on market multiples is similar companies should have
similar valuations (Boston University, 2011). Such an approach tries to answer “what is the
value of a company compared to other similar companies in the market. Three main elements
must be considered when an analysis of comparable companies has been developed:
 Use the right multiple. Usually, it is more appropriate to use multiple which are being
used in the market such as EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue and P/E;
 The multiple must be built in consistent way. For example if excess cash is excluded
from the value hence interest income must be excluded from the earnings;
 Use the right peer per group. Firstly, peers of industry should be selected and after to
refine the sample with further filters such as size, margins, leverage, seasonality.
Moreover, empirical evidence proved forward looking multiples are more accurate predictors
of value than historical multiples (Liu, Nissim, Thomas, 2002). Other research showed
multiples based on forecast earnings over-performed those based on historical earnings (Kim
and Ritter, 1999).
For purpose of Nike’s valuation we selected three multiples:
 EV/Revenue
 EV/EBITDA
145.77 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
8.0% $89.66 $98.59 $109.77 $124.15 $143.37
7.5% $99.37 $110.65 $125.17 $144.56 $171.77
7.0% $111.54 $126.20 $145.77 $173.24 $214.58
6.5% $127.24 $147.00 $174.73 $216.45 $286.37
6.0% $148.25 $176.23 $218.36 $288.94 $431.54
Exhibit 5. Sensitity analysis
Terminal FCF Growth RateWACC
17
 P/E
The choice of these ratio stem from willingness to adopt multiples commonly used in the
market. Moreover, we are going to develop the model using one-year forward looking
multiples whereby the denominator employs a forecast of profits rather than historical profits.
In order to perform the comparable companies analysis, 10 firms from the Yahoo Index
Industry “Apparel Footwear & Accessories” were compared.
For each ratio (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA and P/E) mean and median have been computed in
order to get Nike’s enterprise value.
Then, NKE’s financial highlights have been recalled as shown below.
Finally, Nike’s valuation has been calculated. However, the valuation based on comparable
companies analysis contrasts with BUY signal found in DCF. In fact, comparing its current
($ in millions)
Comparable Companies - Apparel Footwear & Accessories
MultiplesAnalysis
Market Debt and
Company Name Ticker Capitalization Debt equivalents EV/Revenue EV/ EBITDA Price/ Earnings
ADS.DE 15,780 3,466 1,683 17,563 1.1x 11.4x 19.7x
COH 11,870 140 592 11,419 2.7x 11.0x 20.9x
CROX 967 12 268 712 0.6x 6.0x 25.9x
DECK 2,620 10 237 2,393 1.2x 8.0x 15.0x
FL 8,660 134 967 7,827 1.0x 7.1x 14.2x
ICON 1,660 1,333 188 2,805 5.3x 9.0x 10.5x
Puma PUM.DE 2,780 20 402 2,398 0.7x 9.8x 24.4x
SKX 3,770 118 467 3,422 1.1x 8.3x 14.6x
SHOO 2,500 - 81 2,419 1.6x 10.9x 17.0x
WWW 3,380 901 224 4,057 1.4x 11.7x 18.5x
Median 2,700 1.2x 8.7x 16.0x
Mean 3,292 1.6x 8.9x 17.5x
Exhibit 6 - Sources: Companiesfilings10-K, 10-Q, Yahoo.com, Morningstar.com, 4Traders.com, Bloomberg.com
Iconix Brand Group
Skechers
Steven Madden
Wolwerine World Wide
Cash
Adidas
1-year forward multiple
Coach
Crocs
Deckers Outdoor
Foot Locker
Enterprise Value
NIKE Financial Highlights-millions
Ticker
Shares
outstandings
Debt Cash Revenue EBITDA Earnings
NKE 860 1,373 2,220 32,429 5,231 3,464
Exhibit 7- Source: NIKE 10-K
NIKE
Company name
18
price to the average and median price got from the multiples analysis the stock looks
overvalued.
Valuation is never an easy issue because a lot of assumptions are involved and often times
different valuation methods lead to different results.
The next section, which summarizes pros and cons of the two methods used, will try to
provide an advice to investors incurring in such a divergent situation
4. Advantages and limitations of the two methods
Valuing a company is one of the most difficult task for different stakeholders. Empirical
evidence shows market multiples represent the most common method used by investors to
value stocks (Damodaran, 2006). Nevertheless, most academics and equity analysts
recommend to use as first instance the DFC model.
On one hand, main benefits of DCF are:
 Provides an objective framework to assess company’s risk and cash flows in order to
estimate value;
 Delivers the intrinsic value of a company;
 Can be developed even if real peers companies are not available;
Nike Valuation
Enterprise
Value
Equity Value Stock Price
52,156 53,003 62$
46,335 47,182 55$
60,663 61,510 72$
Median Price 62$
Average Price 63$
SELL
Exhibit 8 - Nike M ultiple Valuation
62-63 < 99.97
Price Earnings
Multiple method
EV/Revenue
EV/EBITDA
19
 Allows investors to incorporate business strategy changes into the valuation (Havnaer,
2012).
As opposite DCF approach presents following drawbacks:
 Highly sensitive to cash flow projections;
 Incorrect estimations of either cash flow or terminal multiples can lead to distorted
terminal value;
 Validity of the weighted average cost of capital relies on assumptions for beta and
market return.
On the other hand, main advantages of market multiples valuation are:
 Objective comparison across similar companies reflecting all publicly available
information;
 Generally delivers a forward-looking valuation;
 Provides a reliable indication of value in situations where no control premium is
involved.
In reverse, such an approach carries on a number of caveats as:
 To select a large sample of very similar companies in terms of size, industry,
business, is hard to realize;
 Company-specific issues (low liquidity, small float, limited research coverage) can
limit the analysis and its effectiveness;
 Share price performance is often affected by external variables such as investor
sentiment, M&A activity within the sector and takeover speculation;
 Neglect long-run issues as the analysis is focused on next 1-2 years.
20
5. Conclusions
The main goal of this paper is valuing Nike Inc. and provides a market recommendation for
it. On one hand, Discounted Cash Flow model signalled currently NKE stock are undervalued
as the analysis showed the target price is $145.77. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis
reiterated the DCF result demonstrating which even changing assumptions on discount rate
and perpetual growth rate, only 3 prices out 25 are below the current price.
However, Nike’s valuation based on market multiple indicated SELL signal showing the
stock’s current price is overvalued and the intrinsic value of Nike should be about $62-63.
Both models have benefits and pitfalls and if on one hand empirical evidence revealed
valuation based on comparable companies analysis is most common used method by
investors to value stocks, on the other hands academics and equity analysts suggest DCF
approach is most reliable model for valuing companies. They argue multiple just represent
shorthand for valuation process, but it is not a real valuation, as multiples come with blind
spots and biases that few investors take the time and care to understand. Therefore, we
conclude the analysis exclusively relying on DCF making BUY recommendation on NKE
stocks.
21
References
Boston University, Techniques in Finance & Valuation, Boston School of Management,
2011.
Brealey Richard, Myers Stewart, Allen Franklin, Principles of Corporate Finance, McGraw-
Hill Irwin, 2011.
Damodaran Aswath, Discounted Cash Flow valuation, NYU Stern, 2001.
Damodaran Aswath, “Valuation Approaches and Metrics: A Survey of the Theory and
Evidence.”, Research Paper, 2006.
Havnaer Kurt, DCF vs. Multiples, Jensen Investment Management, 2012.
Kim M., Ritter J.R., Valuing IPOs, Journal of Financial Economics, 1999.
Koller Tim, Goedhart Marc, Wessels David, Valuation: Measuring and Managing Value of
Companies. McKinsey & Company, 2010.
Liu J, Nissim D., Thomas J., Equity Valuation Using Multiples. Journal of Accounting
Research, 2002.
Steiger Florian, The Validity of Company Valuation Using Discounted Cash Flow Methods.
European Business School, 2008.
Web Sources
Yahoo: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NKE+Profile
DAX: http://www.dax-indices.com/EN/index.aspx?pageID=1
Moody’s : https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/NIKE-Inc-credit-rating-40400
Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
Morningstar: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/index/IndexCharts.aspx?Symbol=SPX

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Nike Valuation

  • 1. NIKE VALUATION VALUE ASSESSMENT APRIL 12, 2015 STEFANO DI ROSA LECTURER: DR. NED GANDEVANI EUROPEAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS
  • 2. 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary……...……………….………………………….…….………………….2 1. Introduction……………………………………………………….….……….……….......3 2. Company overview.........……..…………………………………….……….….…………..4 3. Valuation...…………………………………………………………………..….…………..5 3.1 Discounted Cash Flow......…………………………………….………......………5 3.1.1 Estimating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).......................6 3.1.1.1 Calculating cost of equity capital...............................................6 3.1.1.2 Calculating cost of debt capital..................................................9 3.1.1.3 Determining the capital structure.............................................10 3.1.2 Forecasting Free Cash Flow........................... …………………………11 3.1.3 Estimating terminal value of the company…..................………………14 3.1.4 Calculating and interpreting results.........................................................14 3.2 Market Multiples....................................................................................................16 4. Advantages and limitations of the two methods..................................................................18 5. Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………......20 References......………………………………………………………………………………..21
  • 3. 2 Executive Summary This paper aims to provide a valuation of Nike, Inc. (NKE), the U.S multinational company which designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, equipment, accessories for men, women and kids worldwide. The firm valuation is based on two methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Market Multiples. The DCF provided BUY signal for NKE’s stock with a target price of $145.77. However, valuation based on market multiples gave a SELL signal. Although market multiples is most common method used by investors to value stocks, the DCF model is the most reliable model to calculate the intrinsic value of a company. Therefore the analysis makes BUY recommendation for NKE.
  • 4. 3 1. Introduction Investment Bankers, research analysts, companies, venture capitalists and a number of other parties do valuate a company for several and often different reasons. Investment bankers usually valuate a private company when they assist it to the Initial Public Offering. Equity research analyse public companies in order to provide recommendations on the public shares such as buy, sell or hold the stock. Venture capitalists in general perform valuation of start-up companies need capital for growth purposes. Even lenders do valuation analysis in order to understand the value of the assets used by borrowers as collateral for secured debt. There are a lot of valuation methodologies and each stakeholder uses that best fits to own goals. In general, the purpose of valuing companies is to provide shareholders, and whatever else kind of stakeholders a reasonable current value of the company. Different approaches are used to define this value but some general guidelines apply to all of them (Steiger, 2008) For example private equities company tend to valuate companies using precedent transactions method which include premium paid for control and equity analyst generally adopt DCF and market multiples. There is not best method, but every method must be fine-tuned according to the goal of the valuation. The purpose of this paper is providing a buy, sell or hold recommendation of Nike Inc. (NKE), therefore the methodologies applied can be associated to the ones adopted by the Equity analysts. The structure of the project involves a brief description of the company object of the valuation. Then, the analysis start with the DCF method. Next, the second valuation based on market multiples. Comparison of the results is the next step. Finally, a critical evaluation of these methodologies highlighting pros and cons .
  • 5. 4 2. Company Overview Nike Inc. along with its subsidiaries designs, manufactures, market and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories for men, women and kids worldwide (www.finance.yahoo.com ). It was established in 1964 in Beaverton, OR. Main categories Nike sells are running, basketball, football, golf, training and sportswear in general. Moreover, Nike has been developing a segment line of performance equipment such as digital devices, timepieces, eyewear and other technological equipment to improve athletic performance. It also provides an App for IOS, Android and Windows mobile devices to check running and training performances. Nike sells own products to footwear stores, sporting goods stores, department stores, skate, other retail accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores and Internet Websites (direct to consumer operations) and a mix of independent distributors and licensees. Nike shares are listed in New York Stock Exchange, and according to Bloomberg. Com its sector is: Consumer Discretionary; the industry is: Apparel & Textile products; and sub- industry is: Apparel, Footwear and Acc. Design. Below a couple of images of the most recent Nike products.
  • 6. 5 3. Valuation In order to calculate the value of Nike and therefore provide recommendation buy, sell or hold the stock, it will be initially developed a valuation based on discounted cash flow model including a brief description of the model showing what are the steps involved in. Then, the second part of the paper envisages Nike’s valuation via market multiples such as Enterprise Value/EBITDA, EV/Revenue and Price/Earnings. 3.1 Discounted Cash Flow The Discounted Cash Flow approach discounts free cash flow, that is the cash flow available to all investors such as equity holders, debt holders, and any other non-equity investors at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which represents the blended cost for all investor capital (Koller, Goedhart, Wessels, 2010). The main goal of DCF is to provide the intrinsic value of a company. In other words, the value of the firm is calculated by discounting future cash flows at the weighted cost of capital ,which represents the cost of the different source of financing of the company, weighted by their market value proportions (Damodaran, 2001). Essentially, the DCF involves four main steps to provide the intrinsic value of a company: 1. Estimating WACC 2. Forecasting Free Cash Flow 3. Estimating terminal value of the company 4. Calculating and interpreting results
  • 7. 6 3.1.1 Estimating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is a weighted average of the required rates of return for each of the different sources of capital e.g., equity, preferred and debt. It reflects the cost of each type of capital weighted by the respective percentage of each type of capital assumed for the company’s optimal capital structure: WACC = [Re * (E/(V)] + [Rp * (P/(V)] + [(Rd * (D/(V)) + (1-t)] o Re = cost of equity o Rd = cost of debt o Rp = cost of preferred stock o E = market value of equity of subject company o D = fair market value of debt (same as face value unless distressed) of subject company o P = value of preferred o V = total value of company o T = tax rate 3.1.1.1 Calculating cost of equity capital The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is adopted to estimate the cost of equity capital for Nike. It basically states the cost of equity capital is a function of the risk free rate, the relative risk of the company (beta) and market risk premium. The formula is: CAPM = rf + β * (rm – rf) whereby (rm-rf) whereby rm is the expected rate of return for the market.
  • 8. 7 We use as risk free rate proxy U.S Treasury Bond 10Yr because it includes premiums for default, credit, liquidity and inflation risk. Moreover, being stocks a financial instrument for investors with long-run horizon to use T-Notes rather than T-Bills looks more reasonable. From www.bloomberg.com we get risk free rate of 1.95%. Table 1. U.S Government Bonds Yields. Source: www.Bloomberg.com Beta measures the risk of the stock related to the market. It is calculated by the following formula: β= Cov (rm, rs) / Var (rm) Being Nike a large cap company we can use the S&P 500 as a proxy for the overall market. When stock’s Beta is 1 signals that the stock price should have the same behavior of the market in terms of risk and return. Hence if for example the market increases of 1% so the stock should increase of 1% as well. Beta of less than 1 signals lower systematic risk than the market and a stock with a higher beta than 1 signals that it has a higher systematic risk than the market. From Finance.Yahoo.com we get a beta for Nike of 0.51 as shown below.
  • 9. 8 Nevertheless, empiric evidence showed phenomena as low beta anomaly, which demonstrated low beta stocks outperformed high beta stocks. Table 2. Nike Beta. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com In order to determine the expected return of the market we can assume that the historical returns represent a good proxy for the future. As already mentioned, being Nike a large cap company, S&P500 is a reasonable choice as its relative market. Taking the 10Yr. average total returns from Morningstar.com we get rm= 8.13%. Table 3. S&P500 average returns. Source: Morningstar.com Now we have all input to compute the Nike’s cost of equity capital. Cost of Equity Capital Beta Assumptions 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 1.95% Expected market return 8.13% Beta 0.51 Cost of Equity 7.09% Exhibit 1. N ike 's c o s t o f e quity
  • 10. 9 3.1.1.2 Calculating cost of debt Once computed cost of equity capital, the next step envisages to estimate the Nike’s cost of debt. From Moody.com we first identify the Nike’s long term rating which is A1 as shown below. Table 4. Nike’s long term rating. Source: Moody.com Then, we identify the 10Yr Corporate Bond rating associated with the Nike’s rating in Yahoo Finance. For Nike A1 Bond is 2.96%. Table 5. Corporate Bonds Yield. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com In order to calculate the after tax cost of debt we use the marginal rate which is the tax rate paid on the next dollar of income. We assume it is 35%. Applying this tax rate we get Nike’s after tax cost of debt = 1.924%.
  • 11. 10 3.1.1.3 Determining the capital structure The next step in order to calculate the Nike’s WACC is to determine its capital structure. To identify the weight of the equity we need two inputs: shares outstanding and share price. We will use the share price at May 31, 2014 as it is more appropriate it coincides with book value of debt. The share price at that date is $ 76.24. Table 6. Nike share price at May 31, 2014. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com The shares outstanding at that date were 859.750.000. Hence market value of equity is $65.547million. Book value of debt al last 10-K released (May 31, 2014) was $1.373million. Table 7. Nike book value of debt. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
  • 12. 11 Therefore the enterprise value results to be $66.920m and We=97.25% and Wd=2.05%. Applying the formula we get the Nike’s WACC is 6.98%. 3.1.2 Forecasting free cash flow The second step of the DCF is to compute and project free cash flow to infinity. The idea behind the DCF model is a going concern company. Hence, we project free cash flow for three years and then we calculate the terminal value. In order to project free cash flow over three years is essential to determine the growth rate. It can be computed in three ways: 1. Historical growth rates. Historical EPS, dividends or revenues may provide an average value to identify the growth rate of the company. 2. Analysts’ consensus. Financial info providers such as Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg do estimate and assumption on the growth rates of public companies. Otherwise the company provides useful guidance of future growth rate on SEC filings such as 10-K and 10-Q. 3. Dividend Pay-out Ratio. Another indicator of the growth rate can be obtained via the following formula: g= ROE (1- DPR) where ROE is return on equity and DPR is the dividend pay-out ratio. Market share price $76.24 Shares outstanding 859,750,000 Market value of equity $65,547,340,000 Book value of debt $1,373,000,000 Enterprise Value $66,920,340,000 Equity to Enterprise Value 97.95% Debt to Enterprise Value 2.05% Cost of equity capital 7.09% After tax cost of debt 1.924% WACC 6.98% Exhibit 2. Nike's WACC WACC Analysis
  • 13. 12 Furthermore, a consideration deserves to be widened. Average industry revenue growth varies significantly across industries, and often time there are even large differences between firms within the same industry. In fact, some sectors (IT services, telecom, health-care) had annual growth rate in excess than sectors like food products and department stores in the period between 1997-2007 (McKinsey Corporate Performance Centre Analysis, 2010). The reason stems from structural factors such as changes in customer demand or competition from substitute products. But also the business cycle affects some industries more than others. Coming back to Nike’s valuation, we assume a growth rate of 10% for year 1, 6% for year 2 and 9% for year 3 as indicated by the Nike’s management during the last financial report. After year 3, we assume a constant growth rate of the 4% forever although the estimated average growth rate of the revenues from the 2012 to 2017 would be higher. However, comparing this rate to the median of the industry “Apparel Retail” provided McKinsey which computed a historical growth rate of 7% for Nike industry in the period 1997-2007 and taking account that the years from the 2012 throughout the 2015 have been catching an upward trend post-recession, and being Nike a company at a mature stage of life cycle, we assume an estimate of the constant growth rate of the 4% for Nike is more appropriate. After estimating growth rate, the next step is to identify the components of free cash flow. We are going to implement a top down approach computing the free cash flow starting from the EBIT because such an approach allows to measure free cash flows to the unlevered firm determining the operating value of a firm independent of its capital structure (Bear Sterns, 2005). Free cash flow equals: Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 perpetuity Growth Rate - 10% 6% 9% 4% Exhibit 1. Nike's Growth Rate
  • 14. 13 EBIT Less: Taxes Less: Capital Expenditures Less: (Increase) / Decrease in working capital Add: Depreciation and Amortization The starting point of this stage is the EBIT because the objective is to get the unlevered free cash flow and EBIT is available to all stakeholders. It excludes interest expense and hence it is not affected by debt and capital structure. Kicking off from EBIT allows to determine enterprise value of the company. To get the market value of the company the debt will be subtracted from the EV. Tax rate is generally the company’s marginal tax rate which in the U.S. and we assume it to be 35%. We do not use actual taxes paid by Nike for two main reasons. The first is that the actual taxes include savings because of the interest expense. Secondly, we use marginal taxes since we assume that the company will not be able to get the deductions in perpetuity or defer a portion of their taxes till perpetuity. Change in the working capital is the increase or decrease in working capital from prior year. Increase in working capital is generally a reduction of cash flow and vice versa. Capital expenditure is subtracted as it is a use of cash and depreciation and amortization is added because it is a non-cash charge. Using Nike’s Financial Statements we calculate the unlevered free cash flow at year 0. The FCF per the year 0 is $3.143b as shown in the exhibit 2 below.
  • 15. 14 Since we get the FCF for the year zero, we are able to project the FCF for next three years utilizing the growth rate assumed earlier. 3.1.3 Estimating terminal value of the company In order to estimate the Nike’s terminal value we will implement the Gordon growth method. As explained in the previous section, we assume a constant growth rate of 4%. It represent the perpetual growth rate by which the company is supposed to grow forever by the end of the 3 years. Again, the growth rate assumed is slightly lower than historical Nike’s growth rate, nevertheless we have also to consider the average long-term expected rate of GDP growth or inflation since companies cannot grow at a high growth rate till perpetuity. To calculate terminal value, we multiply the third year’s free cash by 1 plus the chosen growth rate, and then divide by the discount rate less the growth rate: TV= FCF(2017)*(1+g) / (WACC-g) Applying the Gordon’s method, Nike’s terminal value is $139.422billion as shown below. Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 EBIT $3,680 Less: Taxes 1,288 Debt-Free Earnings $2,392 Less: Capital Expenditures -880 Less: Working Capital Requirements 999 Add: Depreciation and Amortization 632 Net Investment $751 Unlevered Free Cash Flow: $3,143 Exhibit 2. FCF(0) Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 FCF $3,143,000,000 $3,457,000,000 $3,665,000,000 $3,995,000,000 Growth Rate - 10% 6% 9% Exhibit 3. Forecasted FCF
  • 16. 15 3.1.4 Calculating and interpreting results The final step of the DCF is discounting future cash flows and terminal value at WACC and add all the present value of all cash flow to get the Nike’s enterprise value. We get Nike’s Enterprise Value of $126.698billion. Since it represents the EV we subtract the Book value of the debt from it to obtain the Market Value of Equity which is $125.324billion. Being 860million shares outstanding, we get Nike’s intrinsic value is $145.77. As Intrinsic Value is higher than market value = $145.77>$99.97, we have a BUY signal. Based on DCF model, we are establishing a target price of 145.77 for NKE. Clearly going- concern companies such as Nike are very sensitive to changes in the terminal growth rate and discount rate. Therefore, it looks reasonable to provide a sensitivity analysis for investors who would like to use different assumptions for NKE. From the sensitivity analysis, we see only 3 out 25 results are below current price. Therefore the buy signal looks reasonable even modifying assumptions on WACC and perpetual growth rate. FCF (2017) $3,995,000,000 constant grow th rate 4% WACC 6.98% TV $139,422,818,792 Exhibit 4. Nike's TerminalValue Terminal Value Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 TV FCF $3,143,000,000 $3,457,000,000 $3,665,000,000 $3,995,000,000 $139,422,818,792 Growth Rate $3,143,000,000 $3,231,300,355 $3,202,063,031 $3,262,500,824 $113,859,089,158 Enterprise Value $126,697,953,368 Book Value of Debt 1,373,000,000$ Market Value 125,324,953,368$ Shares Outstanding 859,750,000 Nike's Intrinsic value 145.77$ BUY $145.77>$99.97 Exhibit 4. Nike's IntrinsicValue
  • 17. 16 3.2 Market Multiples The idea behind the valuation based on market multiples is similar companies should have similar valuations (Boston University, 2011). Such an approach tries to answer “what is the value of a company compared to other similar companies in the market. Three main elements must be considered when an analysis of comparable companies has been developed:  Use the right multiple. Usually, it is more appropriate to use multiple which are being used in the market such as EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue and P/E;  The multiple must be built in consistent way. For example if excess cash is excluded from the value hence interest income must be excluded from the earnings;  Use the right peer per group. Firstly, peers of industry should be selected and after to refine the sample with further filters such as size, margins, leverage, seasonality. Moreover, empirical evidence proved forward looking multiples are more accurate predictors of value than historical multiples (Liu, Nissim, Thomas, 2002). Other research showed multiples based on forecast earnings over-performed those based on historical earnings (Kim and Ritter, 1999). For purpose of Nike’s valuation we selected three multiples:  EV/Revenue  EV/EBITDA 145.77 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 8.0% $89.66 $98.59 $109.77 $124.15 $143.37 7.5% $99.37 $110.65 $125.17 $144.56 $171.77 7.0% $111.54 $126.20 $145.77 $173.24 $214.58 6.5% $127.24 $147.00 $174.73 $216.45 $286.37 6.0% $148.25 $176.23 $218.36 $288.94 $431.54 Exhibit 5. Sensitity analysis Terminal FCF Growth RateWACC
  • 18. 17  P/E The choice of these ratio stem from willingness to adopt multiples commonly used in the market. Moreover, we are going to develop the model using one-year forward looking multiples whereby the denominator employs a forecast of profits rather than historical profits. In order to perform the comparable companies analysis, 10 firms from the Yahoo Index Industry “Apparel Footwear & Accessories” were compared. For each ratio (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA and P/E) mean and median have been computed in order to get Nike’s enterprise value. Then, NKE’s financial highlights have been recalled as shown below. Finally, Nike’s valuation has been calculated. However, the valuation based on comparable companies analysis contrasts with BUY signal found in DCF. In fact, comparing its current ($ in millions) Comparable Companies - Apparel Footwear & Accessories MultiplesAnalysis Market Debt and Company Name Ticker Capitalization Debt equivalents EV/Revenue EV/ EBITDA Price/ Earnings ADS.DE 15,780 3,466 1,683 17,563 1.1x 11.4x 19.7x COH 11,870 140 592 11,419 2.7x 11.0x 20.9x CROX 967 12 268 712 0.6x 6.0x 25.9x DECK 2,620 10 237 2,393 1.2x 8.0x 15.0x FL 8,660 134 967 7,827 1.0x 7.1x 14.2x ICON 1,660 1,333 188 2,805 5.3x 9.0x 10.5x Puma PUM.DE 2,780 20 402 2,398 0.7x 9.8x 24.4x SKX 3,770 118 467 3,422 1.1x 8.3x 14.6x SHOO 2,500 - 81 2,419 1.6x 10.9x 17.0x WWW 3,380 901 224 4,057 1.4x 11.7x 18.5x Median 2,700 1.2x 8.7x 16.0x Mean 3,292 1.6x 8.9x 17.5x Exhibit 6 - Sources: Companiesfilings10-K, 10-Q, Yahoo.com, Morningstar.com, 4Traders.com, Bloomberg.com Iconix Brand Group Skechers Steven Madden Wolwerine World Wide Cash Adidas 1-year forward multiple Coach Crocs Deckers Outdoor Foot Locker Enterprise Value NIKE Financial Highlights-millions Ticker Shares outstandings Debt Cash Revenue EBITDA Earnings NKE 860 1,373 2,220 32,429 5,231 3,464 Exhibit 7- Source: NIKE 10-K NIKE Company name
  • 19. 18 price to the average and median price got from the multiples analysis the stock looks overvalued. Valuation is never an easy issue because a lot of assumptions are involved and often times different valuation methods lead to different results. The next section, which summarizes pros and cons of the two methods used, will try to provide an advice to investors incurring in such a divergent situation 4. Advantages and limitations of the two methods Valuing a company is one of the most difficult task for different stakeholders. Empirical evidence shows market multiples represent the most common method used by investors to value stocks (Damodaran, 2006). Nevertheless, most academics and equity analysts recommend to use as first instance the DFC model. On one hand, main benefits of DCF are:  Provides an objective framework to assess company’s risk and cash flows in order to estimate value;  Delivers the intrinsic value of a company;  Can be developed even if real peers companies are not available; Nike Valuation Enterprise Value Equity Value Stock Price 52,156 53,003 62$ 46,335 47,182 55$ 60,663 61,510 72$ Median Price 62$ Average Price 63$ SELL Exhibit 8 - Nike M ultiple Valuation 62-63 < 99.97 Price Earnings Multiple method EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA
  • 20. 19  Allows investors to incorporate business strategy changes into the valuation (Havnaer, 2012). As opposite DCF approach presents following drawbacks:  Highly sensitive to cash flow projections;  Incorrect estimations of either cash flow or terminal multiples can lead to distorted terminal value;  Validity of the weighted average cost of capital relies on assumptions for beta and market return. On the other hand, main advantages of market multiples valuation are:  Objective comparison across similar companies reflecting all publicly available information;  Generally delivers a forward-looking valuation;  Provides a reliable indication of value in situations where no control premium is involved. In reverse, such an approach carries on a number of caveats as:  To select a large sample of very similar companies in terms of size, industry, business, is hard to realize;  Company-specific issues (low liquidity, small float, limited research coverage) can limit the analysis and its effectiveness;  Share price performance is often affected by external variables such as investor sentiment, M&A activity within the sector and takeover speculation;  Neglect long-run issues as the analysis is focused on next 1-2 years.
  • 21. 20 5. Conclusions The main goal of this paper is valuing Nike Inc. and provides a market recommendation for it. On one hand, Discounted Cash Flow model signalled currently NKE stock are undervalued as the analysis showed the target price is $145.77. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis reiterated the DCF result demonstrating which even changing assumptions on discount rate and perpetual growth rate, only 3 prices out 25 are below the current price. However, Nike’s valuation based on market multiple indicated SELL signal showing the stock’s current price is overvalued and the intrinsic value of Nike should be about $62-63. Both models have benefits and pitfalls and if on one hand empirical evidence revealed valuation based on comparable companies analysis is most common used method by investors to value stocks, on the other hands academics and equity analysts suggest DCF approach is most reliable model for valuing companies. They argue multiple just represent shorthand for valuation process, but it is not a real valuation, as multiples come with blind spots and biases that few investors take the time and care to understand. Therefore, we conclude the analysis exclusively relying on DCF making BUY recommendation on NKE stocks.
  • 22. 21 References Boston University, Techniques in Finance & Valuation, Boston School of Management, 2011. Brealey Richard, Myers Stewart, Allen Franklin, Principles of Corporate Finance, McGraw- Hill Irwin, 2011. Damodaran Aswath, Discounted Cash Flow valuation, NYU Stern, 2001. Damodaran Aswath, “Valuation Approaches and Metrics: A Survey of the Theory and Evidence.”, Research Paper, 2006. Havnaer Kurt, DCF vs. Multiples, Jensen Investment Management, 2012. Kim M., Ritter J.R., Valuing IPOs, Journal of Financial Economics, 1999. Koller Tim, Goedhart Marc, Wessels David, Valuation: Measuring and Managing Value of Companies. McKinsey & Company, 2010. Liu J, Nissim D., Thomas J., Equity Valuation Using Multiples. Journal of Accounting Research, 2002. Steiger Florian, The Validity of Company Valuation Using Discounted Cash Flow Methods. European Business School, 2008. Web Sources Yahoo: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NKE+Profile DAX: http://www.dax-indices.com/EN/index.aspx?pageID=1 Moody’s : https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/NIKE-Inc-credit-rating-40400 Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/ Morningstar: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/index/IndexCharts.aspx?Symbol=SPX