This document provides a valuation of Nike, Inc. using two methods: discounted cash flow (DCF) and market multiples. The DCF analysis estimates Nike's weighted average cost of capital at 6.98% and forecasts free cash flow over three years using growth rates of 10%, 6%, and 9%. It then calculates a terminal value using a perpetual growth rate of 4%. The DCF provides a target price of $145.77, indicating a "buy" signal. However, valuation using market multiples such as EV/EBITDA provides a "sell" signal. Although market multiples are commonly used, DCF is considered the most reliable method for intrinsic valuation. Therefore, the analysis recommends a "buy" for
This presentation demonstrates that how economic concepts and/or econometric techniques can be useful in financial decision making (i.e. trading) and that how EViews can effectively handle the whole process.
This presentation demonstrates that how economic concepts and/or econometric techniques can be useful in financial decision making (i.e. trading) and that how EViews can effectively handle the whole process.
Systemic Risk in Banking : Systemic risk is the possibility that an event at the company level could trigger severe instability or collapse an entire industry or economy.
This presentation would cover slides on the financial market, various types of financial market. Money market and the instruments of money market like the call money, treasury bills, certificate of deposits, commercial papers.
Project focusing on the distribution of the sports brand Nike understanding their various distribution channels and the selective paths that they choose for each country in order to benefit their business
Systemic Risk in Banking : Systemic risk is the possibility that an event at the company level could trigger severe instability or collapse an entire industry or economy.
This presentation would cover slides on the financial market, various types of financial market. Money market and the instruments of money market like the call money, treasury bills, certificate of deposits, commercial papers.
Project focusing on the distribution of the sports brand Nike understanding their various distribution channels and the selective paths that they choose for each country in order to benefit their business
Making Long Term FM Decisions - Integrative Case Title An.docxsmile790243
Making Long Term FM Decisions - Integrative Case
Title: Analyzing Long Term Financial Decision Making in the Firm (Learning Demonstration 3)
Initial Steps to Completion:
1. Organize your team, choose a leader, and accept accountability for being the lead analyst for one or more parts of this list of tasks.
2. Complete your draft assigned task(s) and post in a common area for review by your team members.
3. Review, comment on, and suggest changes to draft completed tasks by the team.
4. Discuss and resolve differences and come to a consensus on the best responses.
5. Organize your analysis, conclusions, and recommendations
Course Deliverable: Write a report responding to the tasks assigned to your team. Clearly organize your report and effectively communicate the team’s analysis, conclusions and recommendations (if appropriate) associated with each task. Provide the details supporting your analysis as attachments. You should be completing tasks along the way – do not wait until the end of the course to complete your tasks.
Introduction: As a special analytical group set up by ACME Iron by the firm’s Controller, you have been tasked to respond to the following issues raised in a meeting with the CFO.
You and your team must look over several prospective financial strategies to aid in the successful growth of ACME Iron.
You are to work over an 8 to 12 week period on several projects, detail your work as you proceed on these projects, and assemble the report for the CFO to make to the board on the items listed while you work in a team environment. Management will be looking at the team over this period on how well they self-organize and analyze the research areas which will include:
Capital investment analysis
CAPM – Capital Asset Pricing Model determination for the company
WACC – Weighted Average Cost of Capital computations
EVA – Economic Value Analysis
MVA – Market Value Added
Capital structure of the company
Dividend policy
Stock repurchase and option pricing strategy
Bankruptcy risk analysis
Decision Tree Creation
Real option analysis of projects
The CFO wants to test your team out on a simple project in the first task before you get into preparing items for his board presentation in subsequent tasks and projects. He wants to see how well you perform tasks as a team as well as how accurate and thoughtful you are in your work. Details are important to him as well as good organization/presentation and communication.
Financial Statements for use on Tasks
ACME Iron
Balance Sheet
Assets
Current assets:
2014
2015
change
Cash
500,000
600,000
100,000
Investments
1,000,000
1,025,000
25,000
Inventories
110,000,000
117,000,000
7,000,000
Accounts receivable
11,750,000
12,500,000
750,000
Pre-paid expenses
2,500,000
2,600,000
100,000
Other
0
0
...
Assignment
Marginal Revenue Product
Marginal revenue product is defined as the change in total revenue that results from the employment of an additional unit of a resource. A producer wishes to determine how the addition of pounds of plastic will affect its MRP and profits. See the table below, and answer each of the questions.
Pounds of plastic (quantity of resource)
Number of assemblies (total product)
Price of assemblies ($)
0
0
-
1
15
13
2
30
11
3
40
9
4
55
7
5
58
5
a. The marginal product of the 3rd pound of plastic is ________.
b. The marginal revenue product of the 3rd pound of plastic is ______.
c. The price of plastic is $135 per pound. To maximize profit, the producer should produce
__________________.
d. The price of plastic is $135 per pound. To maximize profit, the producer should buy and use:
________________.
Grading Criteria Assignments
Maximum Points
Meets or exceeds established assignment criteria
40
Demonstrates an understanding of lesson concepts
20
Clearly presents well-reasoned ideas and concepts
30
Uses proper mechanics, punctuation, sentence structure, and spelling
10
Total
100
Case Study
C&MDS, Inc.
Some time ago, at the beginning of 2010, an entrepreneur named Richard Alestar started a small business as a sole proprietor in Oregon - a business that manufactured sensors for cameras that could be used in motion detection systems. The business was very successful and he decided to incorporate in the latter part of 2011 under the name C&MDS, Incorporated. He wanted to name it Camera and Motion Detection Systems, but his marketing manager convinced him it was too difficult to remember. Alestar’s long-term plan was to obtain public funding to support growth anticipated in about 4-6 years. In the meantime, he hired electrical engineers and a solid management team capable of building an organization that would enable the company to eventually go public. He thought his proprietary sensors and equipment could not be duplicated for a number of years. There was only one competitor in the market niche where he competed that had a significant market share, but they were a follower, not a leader. Besides, he planned to grow the market himself, based on the increased focus and attention in the public arena on crime prevention, detection and surveillance using cameras with his sensors. He also was developing a host of other potential applications.
Alestar had developed a good relationship with his investment banker Sophia Pound, and had just begun discussions with respect to obtaining additional capital required to position the company to go public. These discussions also involved the chief financial officer (CFO), Mitch O. Dinero, who had brought up the issue of the appropriate capital structure (target capital structure) that C&MDS should consider. They both thought the current mix in the capital structure was close to optimal, and that only minor changes would be necessary. However, they would defer to the investment banke ...
Explain the general concept of opportunity cost of capital.
Distinguish between the project cost of capital and the firm’s cost of capital.
Learn about the methods of calculating component cost of capital and the weighted average cost of capital.
Understand the concept and calculation of the marginal cost of capital.
Recognise the need for calculating cost of capital for divisions.
Understand the methodology of determining the divisional beta and divisional cost of capital.
Illustrate the cost of capital calculation for a real company.
2. 1
Table of Contents
Executive Summary……...……………….………………………….…….………………….2
1. Introduction……………………………………………………….….……….……….......3
2. Company overview.........……..…………………………………….……….….…………..4
3. Valuation...…………………………………………………………………..….…………..5
3.1 Discounted Cash Flow......…………………………………….………......………5
3.1.1 Estimating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).......................6
3.1.1.1 Calculating cost of equity capital...............................................6
3.1.1.2 Calculating cost of debt capital..................................................9
3.1.1.3 Determining the capital structure.............................................10
3.1.2 Forecasting Free Cash Flow........................... …………………………11
3.1.3 Estimating terminal value of the company…..................………………14
3.1.4 Calculating and interpreting results.........................................................14
3.2 Market Multiples....................................................................................................16
4. Advantages and limitations of the two methods..................................................................18
5. Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………......20
References......………………………………………………………………………………..21
3. 2
Executive Summary
This paper aims to provide a valuation of Nike, Inc. (NKE), the U.S multinational company
which designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, equipment, accessories for men, women
and kids worldwide.
The firm valuation is based on two methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Market
Multiples.
The DCF provided BUY signal for NKE’s stock with a target price of $145.77. However,
valuation based on market multiples gave a SELL signal.
Although market multiples is most common method used by investors to value stocks, the
DCF model is the most reliable model to calculate the intrinsic value of a company.
Therefore the analysis makes BUY recommendation for NKE.
4. 3
1. Introduction
Investment Bankers, research analysts, companies, venture capitalists and a number of other
parties do valuate a company for several and often different reasons. Investment bankers
usually valuate a private company when they assist it to the Initial Public Offering. Equity
research analyse public companies in order to provide recommendations on the public shares
such as buy, sell or hold the stock. Venture capitalists in general perform valuation of start-up
companies need capital for growth purposes. Even lenders do valuation analysis in order to
understand the value of the assets used by borrowers as collateral for secured debt.
There are a lot of valuation methodologies and each stakeholder uses that best fits to own
goals. In general, the purpose of valuing companies is to provide shareholders, and whatever
else kind of stakeholders a reasonable current value of the company. Different approaches are
used to define this value but some general guidelines apply to all of them (Steiger, 2008) For
example private equities company tend to valuate companies using precedent transactions
method which include premium paid for control and equity analyst generally adopt DCF and
market multiples. There is not best method, but every method must be fine-tuned according to
the goal of the valuation.
The purpose of this paper is providing a buy, sell or hold recommendation of Nike Inc.
(NKE), therefore the methodologies applied can be associated to the ones adopted by the
Equity analysts.
The structure of the project involves a brief description of the company object of the
valuation. Then, the analysis start with the DCF method. Next, the second valuation based on
market multiples. Comparison of the results is the next step. Finally, a critical evaluation of
these methodologies highlighting pros and cons .
5. 4
2. Company Overview
Nike Inc. along with its subsidiaries designs, manufactures, market and sells athletic
footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories for men, women and kids worldwide
(www.finance.yahoo.com ). It was established in 1964 in Beaverton, OR. Main categories
Nike sells are running, basketball, football, golf, training and sportswear in general.
Moreover, Nike has been developing a segment line of performance equipment such as
digital devices, timepieces, eyewear and other technological equipment to improve athletic
performance. It also provides an App for IOS, Android and Windows mobile devices to
check running and training performances. Nike sells own products to footwear stores,
sporting goods stores, department stores, skate, other retail accounts through NIKE-owned
retail stores and Internet Websites (direct to consumer operations) and a mix of independent
distributors and licensees.
Nike shares are listed in New York Stock Exchange, and according to Bloomberg. Com its
sector is: Consumer Discretionary; the industry is: Apparel & Textile products; and sub-
industry is: Apparel, Footwear and Acc. Design.
Below a couple of images of the most recent Nike products.
6. 5
3. Valuation
In order to calculate the value of Nike and therefore provide recommendation buy, sell or
hold the stock, it will be initially developed a valuation based on discounted cash flow model
including a brief description of the model showing what are the steps involved in. Then, the
second part of the paper envisages Nike’s valuation via market multiples such as Enterprise
Value/EBITDA, EV/Revenue and Price/Earnings.
3.1 Discounted Cash Flow
The Discounted Cash Flow approach discounts free cash flow, that is the cash flow available
to all investors such as equity holders, debt holders, and any other non-equity investors at the
weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which represents the blended cost for all investor
capital (Koller, Goedhart, Wessels, 2010). The main goal of DCF is to provide the intrinsic
value of a company. In other words, the value of the firm is calculated by discounting future
cash flows at the weighted cost of capital ,which represents the cost of the different source of
financing of the company, weighted by their market value proportions (Damodaran, 2001).
Essentially, the DCF involves four main steps to provide the intrinsic value of a company:
1. Estimating WACC
2. Forecasting Free Cash Flow
3. Estimating terminal value of the company
4. Calculating and interpreting results
7. 6
3.1.1 Estimating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is a weighted average of the required rates of
return for each of the different sources of capital e.g., equity, preferred and debt. It reflects
the cost of each type of capital weighted by the respective percentage of each type of
capital assumed for the company’s optimal capital structure:
WACC = [Re * (E/(V)] + [Rp * (P/(V)] + [(Rd * (D/(V)) + (1-t)]
o Re = cost of equity
o Rd = cost of debt
o Rp = cost of preferred stock
o E = market value of equity of subject company
o D = fair market value of debt (same as face value unless distressed) of subject
company
o P = value of preferred
o V = total value of company
o T = tax rate
3.1.1.1 Calculating cost of equity capital
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is adopted to estimate the cost of equity capital for
Nike. It basically states the cost of equity capital is a function of the risk free rate, the relative
risk of the company (beta) and market risk premium. The formula is:
CAPM = rf + β * (rm – rf) whereby (rm-rf) whereby rm is the expected rate of return for the
market.
8. 7
We use as risk free rate proxy U.S Treasury Bond 10Yr because it includes premiums for
default, credit, liquidity and inflation risk. Moreover, being stocks a financial instrument for
investors with long-run horizon to use T-Notes rather than T-Bills looks more reasonable.
From www.bloomberg.com we get risk free rate of 1.95%.
Table 1. U.S Government Bonds Yields. Source: www.Bloomberg.com
Beta measures the risk of the stock related to the market. It is calculated by the following
formula:
β= Cov (rm, rs) / Var (rm)
Being Nike a large cap company we can use the S&P 500 as a proxy for the overall market.
When stock’s Beta is 1 signals that the stock price should have the same behavior of the
market in terms of risk and return. Hence if for example the market increases of 1% so the
stock should increase of 1% as well. Beta of less than 1 signals lower systematic risk than the
market and a stock with a higher beta than 1 signals that it has a higher systematic risk than
the market. From Finance.Yahoo.com we get a beta for Nike of 0.51 as shown below.
9. 8
Nevertheless, empiric evidence showed phenomena as low beta anomaly, which
demonstrated low beta stocks outperformed high beta stocks.
Table 2. Nike Beta. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
In order to determine the expected return of the market we can assume that the historical
returns represent a good proxy for the future. As already mentioned, being Nike a large cap
company, S&P500 is a reasonable choice as its relative market. Taking the 10Yr. average
total returns from Morningstar.com we get rm= 8.13%.
Table 3. S&P500 average returns. Source: Morningstar.com
Now we have all input to compute the Nike’s cost of equity capital.
Cost of Equity Capital Beta Assumptions
10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 1.95%
Expected market return 8.13%
Beta 0.51
Cost of Equity 7.09%
Exhibit 1. N ike 's c o s t o f e quity
10. 9
3.1.1.2 Calculating cost of debt
Once computed cost of equity capital, the next step envisages to estimate the Nike’s cost of
debt. From Moody.com we first identify the Nike’s long term rating which is A1 as shown
below.
Table 4. Nike’s long term rating. Source: Moody.com
Then, we identify the 10Yr Corporate Bond rating associated with the Nike’s rating in Yahoo
Finance. For Nike A1 Bond is 2.96%.
Table 5. Corporate Bonds Yield. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
In order to calculate the after tax cost of debt we use the marginal rate which is the tax rate
paid on the next dollar of income. We assume it is 35%. Applying this tax rate we get Nike’s
after tax cost of debt = 1.924%.
11. 10
3.1.1.3 Determining the capital structure
The next step in order to calculate the Nike’s WACC is to determine its capital structure. To
identify the weight of the equity we need two inputs: shares outstanding and share price. We
will use the share price at May 31, 2014 as it is more appropriate it coincides with book value
of debt. The share price at that date is $ 76.24.
Table 6. Nike share price at May 31, 2014. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
The shares outstanding at that date were 859.750.000. Hence market value of equity is
$65.547million. Book value of debt al last 10-K released (May 31, 2014) was $1.373million.
Table 7. Nike book value of debt. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com
12. 11
Therefore the enterprise value results to be $66.920m and We=97.25% and Wd=2.05%.
Applying the formula we get the Nike’s WACC is 6.98%.
3.1.2 Forecasting free cash flow
The second step of the DCF is to compute and project free cash flow to infinity. The idea
behind the DCF model is a going concern company. Hence, we project free cash flow for
three years and then we calculate the terminal value. In order to project free cash flow over
three years is essential to determine the growth rate. It can be computed in three ways:
1. Historical growth rates. Historical EPS, dividends or revenues may provide an
average value to identify the growth rate of the company.
2. Analysts’ consensus. Financial info providers such as Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg
do estimate and assumption on the growth rates of public companies. Otherwise the
company provides useful guidance of future growth rate on SEC filings such as 10-K
and 10-Q.
3. Dividend Pay-out Ratio. Another indicator of the growth rate can be obtained via the
following formula: g= ROE (1- DPR) where ROE is return on equity and DPR is the
dividend pay-out ratio.
Market share price $76.24
Shares outstanding 859,750,000
Market value of equity $65,547,340,000
Book value of debt $1,373,000,000
Enterprise Value $66,920,340,000
Equity to Enterprise Value 97.95%
Debt to Enterprise Value 2.05%
Cost of equity capital 7.09%
After tax cost of debt 1.924%
WACC 6.98%
Exhibit 2. Nike's WACC
WACC Analysis
13. 12
Furthermore, a consideration deserves to be widened. Average industry revenue growth
varies significantly across industries, and often time there are even large differences between
firms within the same industry. In fact, some sectors (IT services, telecom, health-care) had
annual growth rate in excess than sectors like food products and department stores in the
period between 1997-2007 (McKinsey Corporate Performance Centre Analysis, 2010). The
reason stems from structural factors such as changes in customer demand or competition
from substitute products. But also the business cycle affects some industries more than
others.
Coming back to Nike’s valuation, we assume a growth rate of 10% for year 1, 6% for year 2
and 9% for year 3 as indicated by the Nike’s management during the last financial report.
After year 3, we assume a constant growth rate of the 4% forever although the estimated
average growth rate of the revenues from the 2012 to 2017 would be higher. However,
comparing this rate to the median of the industry “Apparel Retail” provided McKinsey which
computed a historical growth rate of 7% for Nike industry in the period 1997-2007 and taking
account that the years from the 2012 throughout the 2015 have been catching an upward
trend post-recession, and being Nike a company at a mature stage of life cycle, we assume an
estimate of the constant growth rate of the 4% for Nike is more appropriate.
After estimating growth rate, the next step is to identify the components of free cash flow.
We are going to implement a top down approach computing the free cash flow starting from
the EBIT because such an approach allows to measure free cash flows to the unlevered firm
determining the operating value of a firm independent of its capital structure (Bear Sterns,
2005). Free cash flow equals:
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 perpetuity
Growth Rate - 10% 6% 9% 4%
Exhibit 1. Nike's Growth Rate
14. 13
EBIT
Less: Taxes
Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: (Increase) / Decrease in working capital
Add: Depreciation and Amortization
The starting point of this stage is the EBIT because the objective is to get the unlevered free
cash flow and EBIT is available to all stakeholders. It excludes interest expense and hence it
is not affected by debt and capital structure. Kicking off from EBIT allows to determine
enterprise value of the company. To get the market value of the company the debt will be
subtracted from the EV.
Tax rate is generally the company’s marginal tax rate which in the U.S. and we assume it to
be 35%. We do not use actual taxes paid by Nike for two main reasons. The first is that the
actual taxes include savings because of the interest expense. Secondly, we use marginal taxes
since we assume that the company will not be able to get the deductions in perpetuity or defer
a portion of their taxes till perpetuity. Change in the working capital is the increase or
decrease in working capital from prior year. Increase in working capital is generally a
reduction of cash flow and vice versa. Capital expenditure is subtracted as it is a use of cash
and depreciation and amortization is added because it is a non-cash charge.
Using Nike’s Financial Statements we calculate the unlevered free cash flow at year 0. The
FCF per the year 0 is $3.143b as shown in the exhibit 2 below.
15. 14
Since we get the FCF for the year zero, we are able to project the FCF for next three years
utilizing the growth rate assumed earlier.
3.1.3 Estimating terminal value of the company
In order to estimate the Nike’s terminal value we will implement the Gordon growth method.
As explained in the previous section, we assume a constant growth rate of 4%. It represent
the perpetual growth rate by which the company is supposed to grow forever by the end of
the 3 years. Again, the growth rate assumed is slightly lower than historical Nike’s growth
rate, nevertheless we have also to consider the average long-term expected rate of GDP
growth or inflation since companies cannot grow at a high growth rate till perpetuity. To
calculate terminal value, we multiply the third year’s free cash by 1 plus the chosen growth
rate, and then divide by the discount rate less the growth rate:
TV= FCF(2017)*(1+g) / (WACC-g)
Applying the Gordon’s method, Nike’s terminal value is $139.422billion as shown below.
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0
EBIT $3,680
Less: Taxes 1,288
Debt-Free Earnings $2,392
Less: Capital Expenditures -880
Less: Working Capital Requirements 999
Add: Depreciation and Amortization 632
Net Investment $751
Unlevered Free Cash Flow: $3,143
Exhibit 2. FCF(0)
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
FCF $3,143,000,000 $3,457,000,000 $3,665,000,000 $3,995,000,000
Growth Rate - 10% 6% 9%
Exhibit 3. Forecasted FCF
16. 15
3.1.4 Calculating and interpreting results
The final step of the DCF is discounting future cash flows and terminal value at WACC and
add all the present value of all cash flow to get the Nike’s enterprise value.
We get Nike’s Enterprise Value of $126.698billion. Since it represents the EV we subtract
the Book value of the debt from it to obtain the Market Value of Equity which is
$125.324billion. Being 860million shares outstanding, we get Nike’s intrinsic value is
$145.77. As Intrinsic Value is higher than market value = $145.77>$99.97, we have a BUY
signal.
Based on DCF model, we are establishing a target price of 145.77 for NKE. Clearly going-
concern companies such as Nike are very sensitive to changes in the terminal growth rate and
discount rate. Therefore, it looks reasonable to provide a sensitivity analysis for investors
who would like to use different assumptions for NKE. From the sensitivity analysis, we see
only 3 out 25 results are below current price. Therefore the buy signal looks reasonable even
modifying assumptions on WACC and perpetual growth rate.
FCF (2017) $3,995,000,000
constant grow th rate 4%
WACC 6.98%
TV $139,422,818,792
Exhibit 4. Nike's TerminalValue
Terminal Value
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 TV
FCF $3,143,000,000 $3,457,000,000 $3,665,000,000 $3,995,000,000 $139,422,818,792
Growth Rate $3,143,000,000 $3,231,300,355 $3,202,063,031 $3,262,500,824 $113,859,089,158
Enterprise Value $126,697,953,368
Book Value of Debt 1,373,000,000$
Market Value 125,324,953,368$
Shares Outstanding 859,750,000
Nike's Intrinsic value 145.77$
BUY $145.77>$99.97
Exhibit 4. Nike's IntrinsicValue
17. 16
3.2 Market Multiples
The idea behind the valuation based on market multiples is similar companies should have
similar valuations (Boston University, 2011). Such an approach tries to answer “what is the
value of a company compared to other similar companies in the market. Three main elements
must be considered when an analysis of comparable companies has been developed:
Use the right multiple. Usually, it is more appropriate to use multiple which are being
used in the market such as EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue and P/E;
The multiple must be built in consistent way. For example if excess cash is excluded
from the value hence interest income must be excluded from the earnings;
Use the right peer per group. Firstly, peers of industry should be selected and after to
refine the sample with further filters such as size, margins, leverage, seasonality.
Moreover, empirical evidence proved forward looking multiples are more accurate predictors
of value than historical multiples (Liu, Nissim, Thomas, 2002). Other research showed
multiples based on forecast earnings over-performed those based on historical earnings (Kim
and Ritter, 1999).
For purpose of Nike’s valuation we selected three multiples:
EV/Revenue
EV/EBITDA
145.77 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
8.0% $89.66 $98.59 $109.77 $124.15 $143.37
7.5% $99.37 $110.65 $125.17 $144.56 $171.77
7.0% $111.54 $126.20 $145.77 $173.24 $214.58
6.5% $127.24 $147.00 $174.73 $216.45 $286.37
6.0% $148.25 $176.23 $218.36 $288.94 $431.54
Exhibit 5. Sensitity analysis
Terminal FCF Growth RateWACC
18. 17
P/E
The choice of these ratio stem from willingness to adopt multiples commonly used in the
market. Moreover, we are going to develop the model using one-year forward looking
multiples whereby the denominator employs a forecast of profits rather than historical profits.
In order to perform the comparable companies analysis, 10 firms from the Yahoo Index
Industry “Apparel Footwear & Accessories” were compared.
For each ratio (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA and P/E) mean and median have been computed in
order to get Nike’s enterprise value.
Then, NKE’s financial highlights have been recalled as shown below.
Finally, Nike’s valuation has been calculated. However, the valuation based on comparable
companies analysis contrasts with BUY signal found in DCF. In fact, comparing its current
($ in millions)
Comparable Companies - Apparel Footwear & Accessories
MultiplesAnalysis
Market Debt and
Company Name Ticker Capitalization Debt equivalents EV/Revenue EV/ EBITDA Price/ Earnings
ADS.DE 15,780 3,466 1,683 17,563 1.1x 11.4x 19.7x
COH 11,870 140 592 11,419 2.7x 11.0x 20.9x
CROX 967 12 268 712 0.6x 6.0x 25.9x
DECK 2,620 10 237 2,393 1.2x 8.0x 15.0x
FL 8,660 134 967 7,827 1.0x 7.1x 14.2x
ICON 1,660 1,333 188 2,805 5.3x 9.0x 10.5x
Puma PUM.DE 2,780 20 402 2,398 0.7x 9.8x 24.4x
SKX 3,770 118 467 3,422 1.1x 8.3x 14.6x
SHOO 2,500 - 81 2,419 1.6x 10.9x 17.0x
WWW 3,380 901 224 4,057 1.4x 11.7x 18.5x
Median 2,700 1.2x 8.7x 16.0x
Mean 3,292 1.6x 8.9x 17.5x
Exhibit 6 - Sources: Companiesfilings10-K, 10-Q, Yahoo.com, Morningstar.com, 4Traders.com, Bloomberg.com
Iconix Brand Group
Skechers
Steven Madden
Wolwerine World Wide
Cash
Adidas
1-year forward multiple
Coach
Crocs
Deckers Outdoor
Foot Locker
Enterprise Value
NIKE Financial Highlights-millions
Ticker
Shares
outstandings
Debt Cash Revenue EBITDA Earnings
NKE 860 1,373 2,220 32,429 5,231 3,464
Exhibit 7- Source: NIKE 10-K
NIKE
Company name
19. 18
price to the average and median price got from the multiples analysis the stock looks
overvalued.
Valuation is never an easy issue because a lot of assumptions are involved and often times
different valuation methods lead to different results.
The next section, which summarizes pros and cons of the two methods used, will try to
provide an advice to investors incurring in such a divergent situation
4. Advantages and limitations of the two methods
Valuing a company is one of the most difficult task for different stakeholders. Empirical
evidence shows market multiples represent the most common method used by investors to
value stocks (Damodaran, 2006). Nevertheless, most academics and equity analysts
recommend to use as first instance the DFC model.
On one hand, main benefits of DCF are:
Provides an objective framework to assess company’s risk and cash flows in order to
estimate value;
Delivers the intrinsic value of a company;
Can be developed even if real peers companies are not available;
Nike Valuation
Enterprise
Value
Equity Value Stock Price
52,156 53,003 62$
46,335 47,182 55$
60,663 61,510 72$
Median Price 62$
Average Price 63$
SELL
Exhibit 8 - Nike M ultiple Valuation
62-63 < 99.97
Price Earnings
Multiple method
EV/Revenue
EV/EBITDA
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Allows investors to incorporate business strategy changes into the valuation (Havnaer,
2012).
As opposite DCF approach presents following drawbacks:
Highly sensitive to cash flow projections;
Incorrect estimations of either cash flow or terminal multiples can lead to distorted
terminal value;
Validity of the weighted average cost of capital relies on assumptions for beta and
market return.
On the other hand, main advantages of market multiples valuation are:
Objective comparison across similar companies reflecting all publicly available
information;
Generally delivers a forward-looking valuation;
Provides a reliable indication of value in situations where no control premium is
involved.
In reverse, such an approach carries on a number of caveats as:
To select a large sample of very similar companies in terms of size, industry,
business, is hard to realize;
Company-specific issues (low liquidity, small float, limited research coverage) can
limit the analysis and its effectiveness;
Share price performance is often affected by external variables such as investor
sentiment, M&A activity within the sector and takeover speculation;
Neglect long-run issues as the analysis is focused on next 1-2 years.
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5. Conclusions
The main goal of this paper is valuing Nike Inc. and provides a market recommendation for
it. On one hand, Discounted Cash Flow model signalled currently NKE stock are undervalued
as the analysis showed the target price is $145.77. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis
reiterated the DCF result demonstrating which even changing assumptions on discount rate
and perpetual growth rate, only 3 prices out 25 are below the current price.
However, Nike’s valuation based on market multiple indicated SELL signal showing the
stock’s current price is overvalued and the intrinsic value of Nike should be about $62-63.
Both models have benefits and pitfalls and if on one hand empirical evidence revealed
valuation based on comparable companies analysis is most common used method by
investors to value stocks, on the other hands academics and equity analysts suggest DCF
approach is most reliable model for valuing companies. They argue multiple just represent
shorthand for valuation process, but it is not a real valuation, as multiples come with blind
spots and biases that few investors take the time and care to understand. Therefore, we
conclude the analysis exclusively relying on DCF making BUY recommendation on NKE
stocks.
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References
Boston University, Techniques in Finance & Valuation, Boston School of Management,
2011.
Brealey Richard, Myers Stewart, Allen Franklin, Principles of Corporate Finance, McGraw-
Hill Irwin, 2011.
Damodaran Aswath, Discounted Cash Flow valuation, NYU Stern, 2001.
Damodaran Aswath, “Valuation Approaches and Metrics: A Survey of the Theory and
Evidence.”, Research Paper, 2006.
Havnaer Kurt, DCF vs. Multiples, Jensen Investment Management, 2012.
Kim M., Ritter J.R., Valuing IPOs, Journal of Financial Economics, 1999.
Koller Tim, Goedhart Marc, Wessels David, Valuation: Measuring and Managing Value of
Companies. McKinsey & Company, 2010.
Liu J, Nissim D., Thomas J., Equity Valuation Using Multiples. Journal of Accounting
Research, 2002.
Steiger Florian, The Validity of Company Valuation Using Discounted Cash Flow Methods.
European Business School, 2008.
Web Sources
Yahoo: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NKE+Profile
DAX: http://www.dax-indices.com/EN/index.aspx?pageID=1
Moody’s : https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/NIKE-Inc-credit-rating-40400
Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
Morningstar: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/index/IndexCharts.aspx?Symbol=SPX