Knowledge as a basis for successful injury prevention: The Handbook of Road Safety Measures. Rune Elvik, Transportøkonomisk institutt.

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Knowledge as a basis for successful
injury prevention: The Handbook of
Road Safety Measures
10:e Nordiska Folkhälsokonferensen – session om
Folkhälsoekonomi, 26.8.2011, 1030-1200
Rune Elvik, Transportøkonomisk institutt (re@toi.no)

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Preventing traffic injury – a success
 The number of people killed in road accidents has been
dramatically reduced in many highly motorised countries
the past 40 years
 This success is partly attributable to long-term research
and the systematic accumulation of knowledge by means
of meta-analyses
 The history of The Handbook of Road Safety Measures,
developed in Norway, illustrates this process
 Knowledge summarised in this book has provided key
input to several road safety policy analyses in Norway
 These analyses show that there are many cost-effective
road safety measures

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73
84
124 124
128
139
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
First edition (1982) Second edition (1989) Third edition (1997) First English edition
(2004)
Second English edition
(2009)
Forthcoming fourth
edition (2012)
Numberof road safety measuresincluded in The Handbook of Road Safety
Measures

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350
291 320
483
609
857 852
1170
2186
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Numberof pages in selected volumes of Accident Analysis and Prevention

5. Areas covered by the Handbook of
Road Safety Measures
1. Road design
2. Road maintenance
3. Traffic control
4. Vehicle design and protective devices
5. Vehicle and garage inspection
6. Driver training and regulation of professional driving
7. Public education and information campaigns
8. Police enforcement and sanctions
9. Post accident care
10.General purpose policy instruments
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30220000
22930000
8140000
614000
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
Prevention of a fatality Prevention of a critical injury Prevention of a serious injury Prevention of a slight injury
AmountinNOK(2009-prices)
Injury severity
Monetary valuation of the prevention of traffic injury in Norway (NOK 2009-
prices)

7. Impacts included in cost-benefit
analyses
 Travel time savings and unforeseen delays (very detailed)
 Prevention of traffic injury
 Prevention of health loss caused by air pollution
 Prevention of global warming
 Prevention of traffic noise
 Reducing anxiety for unprotected road users in mixed traffic
 Reducing anciety for landslides
 Gains for public health by increased walking and cycling
 Costs of implementing a measure
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Numberoffatalitiesperyear
Trafficfatalities in Norway 1940-2010
Highest on record: 1970 = 560
208 in 2010 = lowest since 1954

9. Benefits from optimal use of road
safety measures in Norway
 Optimal use = using a measure up to the point where
marginal benefits equal marginal costs
 Optimal use will maximise the net present value of each
measure (net present value = discounted value of benefits
minus costs)
 Optimal use is found by performing an incremental analysis
of costs and benefits of each road safety measure
 This analysis is based on a ”utility function” for the use of
each measure (i.e. it is first introduced where benefits are
greatest, then second greatest, then third greatest, etc)
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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0500010000150002000025000300003500040000
Marginalbenefit-costratio
Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)
Marginalbenefit-cost ratio for pedestrian bridge or tunnel by motor vehicle
traffic volume
Break-even point

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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
Benefits(NOKmillion)
Costs (NOK million)
Benefits and costs of building pedestrian bridges or tunnels
Marginal benefits = marginal costs
Most cost-effective project
Least cost-effective project
Benefits = 4043; Costs = 3239

12. Cost-effective road safety measures
in Norway (selection)
Measure Fatalities
prevented
Net present
value
Intelligent speed adaptation 34 7798 (1.80)
3.5 times more speed enforcement 21 855 (3.28)
4 times more random breath testing 16 716 (4.62)
Seat belt reminders in all cars (now 58%) 10 3952 (7.93)
Front impact protection on heavy vehicles 7 1560 (2.52)
E-call (electronic accident notification) 3 345 (1.54)
Enhanced neck injury protection in all cars (now 27%) 3 2171 (4.91)
Upgrading pedestrian crossings 3 1646 (2.39)
New road lighting (on currently unlit roads) 2 725 (1.92)
Guardrails along roadside 1 301 (1.80)
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13. Discussion
 A few road safety measures can contribute to a fairly large
reduction of the number of road accident fatalities
 Many more measures each contribute to a small reduction
of the number of fatalities
 Vehicle-related measures appear to have the largest
potential for improving safety
 Increasing police enforcement can also contribute
importantly
 National governments have few instruments for influencing
vehicle manufacturers
 Drastically more police enforcement is unlikely
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14. Concluding remarks
 Large gains in welfare can be attained by reducing traffic
injury
 In monetary terms, these gains in welfare exceed the
costs of implementing the measures roughly up to the
point of reducing fatalities by 50 percent
 Vision Zero for traffic fatalities states that we should not
settle for a 50 percent reduction in fatalities, but should
aim for 100 percent
 At the current monetary valuation of safety, that would
imply the use of road safety measures far beyond the
point that is optimal in economic terms
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