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NewBase Energy News 02 August 2016 - Issue No. 898 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE's Utico set to double water capacity with $185m investment
By Reuters
The United Arab Emirates' only privately owned utility, Utico Middle East, will invest about $185
million to more than double its water desalination capacity in two years, aiming to chip away at
state-owned rivals' market dominance, it said on Monday.
Demand for water and power in the UAE is expected to grow by 5 to 6 percent annually in the next
few years on the back of a growing population and industrialisation, according to estimates by
state-owned utilities. They account for nearly all of the country's water desalination and power
generation capacity, leaving Utico with a very small market share.
Utico has 600 customers including manufacturing companies, port operators, government utilities
in the small UAE states, hotels, palaces, quarries and private entities. However, it currently has
capacity of only 31 million gallons per day (mgpd) of desalinated water, from four plants in the
northern emirate of Ras al Khaimah.
To more than double capacity it is building a new plant and upgrading two existing plants. The
new plant is under construction in Ras al Khaimah with a capacity of 24 mgpd, in a joint venture
with Spain's Grupo Cobra, for an investment outlay by the partners of $196 million.
The Utico plants being upgraded will add a total of 10 mgpd with investment of $68 million,
Managing Director Richard Menezes told reporters. "The new plant as well as the two upgrades
will be operational at full capacity by October 2018, when Utico's total capacity will be 65 mgpd,"
he said.
Financing for the plants will be partly through a $150 million club loan from three local banks -
Emirates NBD, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Commercial Bank of Dubai - and the remainder
through equity, Menezes said.
An infrastructure fund incorporated in the Bahrain Financial Centre is taking a minority stake in
Utico valued at around $50 million, he said without elaborating. The company has won regulatory
approvals to build a clean coal power plant in Ras al Khaimah at an estimated cost of $500 million
in a joint venture with Shanghai Electric Group Corp . "Some packages will go out to tender soon
and we are seeking project finance," Menezes said, adding that completion was scheduled for
2019.
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UAE : RAK Gas company has its eye on gas supply from Malawi
The National - Gavin du Venage +Malawian Wachdog
A variety of minerals and even gas may be available in economically exploitable quantities.
Running close to the length of the country is Lake Malawi, a body of fresh water nearly 600
kilometres long. Indications are that beneath its placid waters lies gas.
Among those interested in finding it is Rak Gas, a
UAE operator controlled by Ras Al Khaimah, and
tasked with supplying the emirate with a consistent
and secure supply of energy. It is also serves to
generate growth and revenues for its government.
Rak Gas has in recent years begun early stage
exploring in various sub-Saharan states.
These include Somalia, offshore Zanzibar and Lake
Malawi. In Malawi Rak Gas has just conducted
environmental impact assessments and what is
termed full tensor gravity gradiometry surveys that
are a precursor to exploration drilling.
Gravity gradiometry is used by hydrocarbon and
mineral prospectors to measure the density of the
subsurface, effectively the rate of change of rock
properties. From this information it is possible to build a picture of subsurface anomalies which
can then be used to more accurately target oil, gas and mineral deposits.
And oil may be available – an Australian company poking around under the lake in the 1980s said
it found signs that there could be as much as four billion barrels to be had. Getting it to the
surface, though, will take some doing as some of the oil blocks overlap the Lake Malawi National
Park, a World Heritage Site.
According to local press reports, Lake Malawi is divided into six segments for oil and gas
exploration with block 1 awarded to Sac Oil of South Africa in 2012. Blocks 2 and 3 were awarded
to the British firm Surestream Petroleum in 2011, but in 2013 Egypt’s El Hamra Oil acquired a 51
per cent stake in the Surestream licences. Blocks 4 and 5 were awarded to Rak Gas in July 2013
and the sixth block went to Ghana’s Pacific Oil.
The Malawi government of Peter Mutharika, who was voted into power during a fiercely contested
election in 2014, will have to work hard convincing environmentalists that exploiting the lake can
be done safely. He will also have to demonstrate to a wary public that the proceeds of oil or gas
production can be used to further the interests of the country as a whole.
There is also a disagreement with Tanzania, which shares the north-east shore of the lake, over
which the boundary between the two countries lies. Tanzania is claiming half the lake is in its
territory, which Malawi disputes.
Mr Mutharika has strong incentives to solve these issues. Malawi is one of the world’s poorest
countries, heavily dependent on peasant farming. According to the UN’s International Fund for
Agricultural Development more than half the population is classified as rural poor. About 30 per
cent of its GDP and 85 per cent of export revenues come from agricultural activity. The country
itself has a GDP of just US$S6.5 billion.
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It is also struggling at the moment with drought. Government research showed that 6.5 million
people, nearly half of Malawi’s population, will require food assistance until the next harvest
season.
Malawi therefore needs every extra dollar it can get. Which is why Mr Mutharika wants to press
ahead with energy extraction, even though the price of oil and gas is not particularly buoyant at
this time.
The controversial Lake Malawi oil exploration project is divided into six blocks for the exploration
and production of Petroleum. Exploration licence for blocks 2 and 3 were issued to a British
Company called Surestream Limited. RAK gas MB45 Limited—a state owned oil company for the
Ras Al Khaima Emirate in the United Arab Emirates—was given licence for blocks 4 and 5. Block
6’s exploration licence was issued out to Pacific Oil Limited whereas Block 1 was licensed to
SacOil, a South African company.
Hamra Oil Malawi Limited was also in operation as Surestream later farmed its blocks to this
Company in a joint operating agreement as Surestream had no enough capacity to carry out the
work. Hamra Oil Malawi Limited is a Company controlled by the Emir of Ras Al Khaima.
The mess which government has discovered is that three licences were issued to this Emir of Ras
Al Khaima controlled companies as the Mutharika administration learnt that Rak gas MB45
Limited, Pacific Oil Limited and Hamra Oil Limited are companies controlled by one group
designed to get a Lions share of the oil blocks by using any trick in or outside the book.
Authorities noted that one Kamal Ataya (Arab), who happens to be the Chief Executive Officer for
Rak Gas also signed an application for an exploration license for Pacific Oil Limited on 1stJune,
2013 and the same guy was also behind the licence for Hamra Oil Malawi Limited.
In November last year, government ordered all companies licensed to explore for oil and gas to
“immediately cease all operations in relation to the granted oil and gas exploration licences until a
review that is currently underway, regarding the manner and procedures that were followed [in
issuance of licences], is finalised.”
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Botolo said the meeting was arranged to give the oil firms “ the Attorney General and the stance of
the Malawi Government.” He said officials will be consulting legal experts for guidance, saying by
not attending the meeting, the firms show that “maybe they are not interested in the business.”
Rak Gas general manager for its Malawi operations Chimwemwe Chikusa however told The
Nation that the company asked the ministry to shift the meeting to the end of this month because
key officials had pre-arranged engagements they could not suddenly cancel but that they afre “
eager to meet government” and conclude the matter.
Malawi suspended oil and gas exploration licences pending a review of some issues government
was concerned with. The review was initially planned to take a month from November 2014. It is
now seven months—and counting.
The exploration of oil on Lake a Malawi is still a contentious issue as locals from the lake shore
districts protest the move claiming the project has the potential to kill fish which they depend for a
living while on the other side, there is still a heated argument which has not been resolved with
neighbouring Tanzania which claims that half of the Lake is hers contrary to Malawi claims that
she wholly own the Lake.
Social commentators also argue that even if the oil explorations can continue, the proceeds from
such an activity can obviously not going to benefit the people of this impoverished southern
African nation but few elites as evidenced by the raw deal Malawians have been given by their
ever greedy politicians since time immemorial.
For example, commentators cite the example of Kayerekera Uranium mine in Karonga which has
only benefited those from the corridors of power, leaving even the district itself poorer than it was
in 1964 when Malawi got independent from her colonizer, Britain.
Rak Gas—owned by the Government of Ras Al Khaimah, one of the UAE emirates—has carried
out Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (FTG) with all the processes duly approved by the Malawi
Government.
Hamra—a Cayman Island Origin private company which bought 51 percent into Blocks Two and
Three from Surestream, also concluded its FTG. Pacific Oil, which is part of Vega Petroleum
Limited—the privately owned oil and gas entity that has oil producing and exploration concessions
in Egypt—is yet to launch an FTG on Block Six.
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Kuwait to Raise Gasoline Prices to Counter Oil Revenue Plunge
Bloomberg - Zaid Sabah ZaidSabahShare on FacebookShare on Twitter
Kuwait’s government approved an increase in prices of gasoline sold locally, becoming the latest
oil-rich Arab nation to cut subsidies as lower crude prices squeeze finances.
The OPEC member will increase the price of the lowest octane gasoline to 85 fils per liter (30
cents) starting September, state-run news agency KUNA reported. The prices of the two higher
gasoline grades will be raised to 36 cents and 56 cents per liter, it reported.
The new prices were agreed after an “exhaustive study,” and are in line with average rates in Gulf
Cooperation Council countries, the government said.
The plunge in oil prices has
prompted members of the six-nation
GCC to revise the generous benefits
their citizens traditionally enjoyed,
and forced them to tap the
international bond market to plug
their deficits. Kuwait plans to raise
as much as $9.9 billion
internationally and 2 billion dinars
locally.
Oil has slipped about 20 percent
from its recent peak in early June,
skirting a bear market and ending a
recovery that saw prices almost
double from a 12-year low in
February. Brent crude was trading at
$42.2 per barrel at 6:58 p.m. in
Kuwait City.
Kuwait is also taking steps to
diversify its economy away from oil,
a goal shared by major crude
exporters including
neighboringSaudi Arabia. The
measures include introducing
corporate taxes and merging state
entities to downsize the government.
Non-oil revenue will reach 1.6 billion
dinars, or 15 percent of total revenues, in the fiscal year which started in April, according to
government estimates.
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India Seeking Merger Model for Possible State-Run Oil Champion
Bloomberg - Saket Sundria
India is open to discussing a merger of some of its state-run oil producers and refiners to create a
larger, stronger national firm, according to the country’s oil minister.
The government is seeking the appropriate model for combining India’s state-run oil companies
and hasn’t decided on any plan, Dharmendra Pradhan said in New Delhi on Monday. The
combined market capitalization of India’s top eight state-owned oil and gas companies is about
$80 billion, ranking a combined entity ninth among global oil firms, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
“I am open to a discussion on merging oil companies,” Pradhan said. “There are two schools of
thought. Whether we have a single entity or we have entities like we have today. We should find
out a way of what should be the future model.”
India is set to emerge as the world’s third-largest oil consumer by the end of this year and will be
the center of global growth through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. It’s
upstream production is dominated by Oil and Natural Gas Corp., which operates independently of
its biggest refiner, Indian Oil Corp.
The Press Trust of India reported Sunday that the government is deliberating on the issue of
merging the companies, citing Pradhan. India had considered a similar proposal about a decade
ago, but didn’t pursue any consolidation, R.S. Sharma, a former chairman of ONGC, said Monday.
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Petrovietnam Gas, Bitexco, Tokyo Gas Establish LNG Vietnam
PV Gas
Petrovietnam Gas (PV Gas), Bitexco and Tokyo Gas have established a joint venture entity, LNG
Vietnam. According to a statement by PV Gas, the newly formed entity came in existence on
August 1, 2016.
State owned PV Gas believes LNG Vietnam will
smoothen the imports of the fuel and help diversifying
the supply of gas in the rapidly growing domestic
market. The new entity will also look at exporting LNG
to markets in the region.
As per the agreement PV Gas would hold 51% stake in
LNG Vietnam, Bitexco will own 39% and Tokyo Gas
10%. Earlier this year, PV Gas and Tokyo Gas had
signed an agreement to extend the MoU for the
comprehensive cooperative relationship on the
development of LNG value chain in Vietnam.
Demand for gas in expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia and Vietnam is no exception. LNG is in
demand as an energy source for industrial parks around Ho Chi Minh City in the country's south.
There are plans to build LNG facilities, including at the port of Thi Vai near the city, Nikkei added.
Expectation of robust energy consumption growth has attracted other global majors to the region
as well. In May, Italy’s Enel and the Japan’s Marubeni Corporation said they will together explore
for opportunities in the gas generation sector in the Asia-Pacific region.
Energy landscape in Southeast Asia is undergoing a major shift as domestic demand continues to
race ahead. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), as domestic natural gas demand
outpaces indigenous production, intra-regional and intra-country trade increases, Southeast Asia
will turn into a net gas importer of around 10 bcm by 2040, compared with net exports of 54 bcm
in 2013.
IEA says electricity demand would almost triple by 2040, an increase greater than the current
power output of Japan. Although coal still remains the dominant fuel, greater focus on pollution
reduction will lead to demand growth in gas fired power plants.
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NewBase 02 August 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
US crude oil edges back over $40, but oversupply still weighs
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices edged up in early trading on Tuesday after U.S. crude broke below $40 per barrel the
previous session, but traders said fuel markets continued to be dogged by excess production.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $40.16 a barrel at 0148 GMT, up 10 cents from
its last close after dipping below $40 for the first time since April the previous session.
International Brent crude oil futures were trading at $42.34 per barrel, up 20 cents from their last
close. Despite the slightly higher prices early on Tuesday, analysts said that overproduction in
crude as well as the refining sector was still weighing on markets.
As a result, refiners will likely reduce orders for new crude feed stocks, putting more short-term
downside pressure on prices, and instead start to draw down on brimming inventories.
"Crude demand growth will soften as throughput in the refining sector moderates in reaction to low
margins. This should result in greater fuels stock draws, but at the expense of slowing the
downtrend in crude stocks," BMI Research said in a note to clients.
In a sign of glutted markets, Singapore's light distillates stocks are around 15 million barrels, up
from 13 million barrels in late June, and close to record levels.
As a result of the oversupplied market, Singapore's overall fuel refinery margins are now
averaging around $3.50 per barrel, a mere third of their 2016 highs from January.
Financial oil traders have taken note of the physical oversupply, with hedge funds taking on large
volumes of bets that would profit from lower prices.
Oil price special
coverage
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"The latest (U.S. regulatory) CFTC data show that speculators increased their shorts (aka bearish
bets) by the biggest volume on record in last week's data for WTI crude. This is the biggest
increase since data began back in 2006, dragging the net long position in
WTI to its lowest since February," said Matt Smith of U.S.-based
ClipperData in a note.
"Another bearish development from the CFTC data has been gasoline
positioning. Speculative positions in gasoline have moved to a record net
short position as hedge funds bet on an ongoing gasoline supply glut," he
added.
Emerging Markets' Treacherous Oil Slick
Bloomberg - Christopher Langner
So, oil's in a bear market again. The good news for emerging market investors is that this time
their assets aren't tracking its descent. Unfortunately, history and statistics suggest this may not
last.
Crude has fallen more than 20 percent from a peak reached in June, with Saudi Arabia cutting
prices on Asian shipments and further increases in U.S. drilling sparking a 3.7 percent tumble in
the West Texas Intermediate benchmark on Monday. Yet emerging market stocks and bond
indexes are still holding on to recent gains.
Oil often leads the prices of other commodities, which are key to major emerging economies such
as Russia, Brazil or South Africa. Hence, it makes sense that their assets would suffer when the
black stuff loses value.
The 10-day correlations between oil and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as well as the Bank of
America Merrill Lynch EM corporate bond and high-yield indexes have all turned negative and are
at some of their lowest levels this year.
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The 10-day correlation between oil and emerging market bond and stock indexes has dropped to
the lowest this year
Curb your enthusiasm, though. Over the past five years, the measure has on average been
positive.
That means that unless oil reverses course and starts rallying, emerging market bonds and stocks
are likely to revert to the averages and start following black gold down. The sticky stuff is still
treacherous for this asset class.
Growing Oil Glut Shows Investors There’s Nowhere to Go But Down
Bloomberg - Mark Shenk
They increased bets on falling crude by the most ever as stockpiles climbed to the highest
seasonal levels in at least two decades, nudging prices toward a bear market. The excess supply
hammered the second-quarter earnings of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. Inventories are
near the 97-year high reached in April as oil drillers boosted rigs for a fifth consecutive week.
“The rise in supplies will add more downward pressure,” said Michael Corcelli, chief investment
officer at Alexander Alternative Capital LLC, a Miami-based hedge fund. “It will be a long time
before we can drain the excess.”
Hedge funds pushed up their short position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 38,897 futures
and options combined during the week ended July 26, according to the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission. It was the biggest increase in data going back to 2006. WTI dropped 3.9
percent to $42.92 a barrel in the report week, and traded at $40.23 at 12:02 p.m.
WTI fell by 14 percent in July, the biggest monthly drop in a year. The decline since early June
was 21 percent in intraday trading. A settlement more than 20 percent off the high would
characterize a bear market.
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U.S. crude supplies rose by 1.67 million barrels to 521.1 million in the week ended July 22,
according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Stockpiles reached 543.4 million barrels
in the week ended April 29, the highest since 1929. Gasoline inventories expanded for a third
week to 241.5 million barrels, the most since April.
“The flow is solidly bearish,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New
York. “It reflects a recognition that the market is, at least for the time being, oversupplied.”
Exxon and Chevron missed profit and production estimates last quarter, earnings data showed
July 29. The biggest U.S. energy companies followed Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc in posting
lower profits as crude’s collapse continued to weigh on the industry.
Rig Count
U.S. oil explorers have boosted the number of active rigs by 58 since the start of June to 374, with
three added last week, Baker Hughes Inc. said July 29. American producers have expanded
drilling in recent weeks after idling more than 1,000 oil rigs since the start of last year.
Money managers’ short position in WTI rose 28 percent to 180,134 futures and options, CFTC
data show. Longs, or bets on rising prices, increased 0.9 percent, while net longs tumbled 23
percent to the lowest since February.
In the Brent market, money managers trimmed bullish bets by 9,072 contracts in the week,
according to data from ICE Futures Europe. Bets that prices will rise outnumbered short positions
by 288,536 lots, the least since February, the London-based exchange said.
In other markets, net-bearish bets on gasoline surged to a record 5,078 contracts. Gasoline
futures fell 2.2 percent in the report week. Net-long wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel dropped
23 percent to 12,742 contracts, the lowest since May. Futures slipped 4.2 percent.
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U.S. refineries cut operating rates in the week ended July 22, the EIA said. The processors
usually don’t begin to curb output until August as the summer driving season nears its end. The
crack spread, a measure of profit margins from refining crude into fuel, fell the past four months,
data compiled by Bloomberg show.
There’s further room for crude prices to drop amid expectations for worsening of refining margins,
according to a Barclays Plc report e-mailed Aug. 1. Although refineries along the U.S. East Coast
have already begun to trim operations "we think there is more pain to come for refineries,"
analysts including Michael Cohen said in the report.
Refineries typically slow during September and October to perform maintenance. Over the past
five years, their demand for oil has dropped an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from July to
October.
“Money managers are net short gasoline by a record amount,” Evans said. “I wouldn’t be
surprised if the net shorts increased for another week, but on an intermediate perspective, you
have to watch out. Gasoline looks oversold given its historic behavior.”
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 01 August 2016
Russian Economy Is Stuck and it is not Get out out of recession
Bloomberg - Evgenia Pismennaya
After focusing almost exclusively on foreign policy since early 2014, the need to get the economy
back into gear is forcing the Russian president to face a painful choice: bow to the demands of the
markets or protect his Kremlin-centered system.
“Putin makes political and geopolitical decisions
confidently, but delays on the economic ones
because they are harder for him,” said Yevgeny
Yasin, a former economy minister. “Serious,
decisive measures are needed” to get the
economy out of its current stagnation, he said.
“But I get the feeling the president isn’t ready for
them.”
The worst of the contraction -- the longest of
Putin’s 16-year rule -- appears over. But even
Kremlin officials admit there’s no sign of anything on the horizon to drive much of a rebound,
barring a jump in oil prices, something few forecasters expect.
Seeking Advice
Low crude prices have cut deeply into government revenues and U.S. and European Union
sanctions have limited access to capital, putting out of reach the kind of stimulus that got the
economy back on track after the last recession in 2009.
The central bank says there’s no room to ease credit quickly, either, with inflation over 7 percent.
Businesses and consumers are still cutting spending.
For a Quicktake explainer on the political impact of Putin’s economic troubles, click here.
In the last few months, Putin has convened a pair of high-level advisory panels to come up with
ideas to accelerate the economy.
He says he’s targeting growth of 4 percent a year, well above the 1.2 percent economists expect
next year. That’s still far below the rates seen during his first two terms in 2000-2008, when
surging oil prices pushed the economy into overdrive. Continued stagnation is also a threat to his
geopolitical ambitions, as it leaves less to spend on a big military buildup.
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Divisions have already appeared between the wide range of specialists pitching ideas on how to
revive the economy, according to officials and others involved in the process. That’s in contrast to
his handling of the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, where he has relied on a tight circle of his
closest aides for counsel.
The most prominent of the economic advisers is Alexei Kudrin, credited with laying the
foundations for fiscal stability as finance minister from 2000-2011. His appointment in April to a top
role on one of the Kremlin panels raised hopes that Putin might back Kudrin’s calls for reducing
state control over the economy to stimulate private business and cutting the budget deficit to bring
down inflation. The International Monetary Fund endorsed that recipe in its annual review of
Russian economic policy earlier this month.
Magic Wand
But so far, the president seems to be seeking more of a magic wand to get the economy again,
much as surging oil prices did in the mid-2000s, the people involved in the discussion said. The
kinds of steps Kudrin has proposed risk alienating powerful people in state-run businesses by
reining in their reach and undermining public support if government spending is cut. Both are risky
as Putin heads into elections in 2018.
“They can write a radical program that’s politically impossible, but then all that will be taken from it
is what will work. The rest they won’t take,” said Oleg Vyugin, a former top central bank and
finance ministry official who also sits on one of the Kremlin advisory panels. “Kudrin has been
given a mandate, but for the moment, it’s not worth anything,”
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In his latest role, Kudrin has been assigned only to craft a program for Putin’s next presidential
term. His efforts to broaden the mandate to include current policy have so far been blocked,
according to senior officials. Last year, he discussed taking a top Kremlin or government job with
Putin, but couldn’t agree on broad enough powers.
The Kudrin panel “is first of all about theory,” said Alexey Repik, an entrepreneur and business
lobbyist who is a member of both the advisory groups.
Putin has ordered a group of economists who back what they’ve dubbed “quantitative easing,
Russian-style,” to prepare a detailed program based on their proposal for a 1.5-trillion-ruble ($22.5
billion) annual stimulus plan. Their state-led investment plan is the opposite of Kudrin’s call for
controlling government spending to allow the private sector to drive growth.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
Putin is likely to cherry-pick ideas from the rival camps to minimize public discontent and keep key
elite groups happy rather adopt a broader strategy, the people involved in the process said. The
result can seem contradictory. Privatizations this year, for example, were supposed to reduce the
government’s role in the economy. But major
state-owned companies and funds have emerged
among the potential bidders for some of the
assets.
The second panel Putin set up, a special
commission on “priority projects” to help boost
growth in the short term, is relying on the kind of
top-down direction the Kremlin has long favored.
“The priority is national projects, for which the
money still has to be found,” said Sergey Dubinin, a former central bank chief who’s now on the
board of VTB Bank. “And priorities like that require manual control,” he added, referring to the kind
of heavy-handed state management that pro-market economists like Kudrin argue is a major
barrier to growth.
A Bloomberg survey of economists found that most thought oil would have to stay below $40 a
barrel for an extended period in order to force the Kremlin into politically painful changes.
When Putin named him to the advisory role this spring, Kudrin said he would push for aggressive
overhauls. “My goal is to show that there won’t be economic growth if we don’t reform
institutions,” he said in May. Putin’s reaction to the proposals was cool, according to participants in
a Kremlin meeting at the time. He rejected any suggestion that he should make concessions to
reduce tensions with the West in an effort to ease economic pressure.
“Putin has an awful lot of other concerns,” said Boris Titov, who heads a business lobby and
attended the advisory panel session with Kudrin in May. “Even at that meeting, he talked mostly
about foreign policy.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 26 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 02 August 2016 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18

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New base energy news issue 898 dated 02 august 2016

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 02 August 2016 - Issue No. 898 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE's Utico set to double water capacity with $185m investment By Reuters The United Arab Emirates' only privately owned utility, Utico Middle East, will invest about $185 million to more than double its water desalination capacity in two years, aiming to chip away at state-owned rivals' market dominance, it said on Monday. Demand for water and power in the UAE is expected to grow by 5 to 6 percent annually in the next few years on the back of a growing population and industrialisation, according to estimates by state-owned utilities. They account for nearly all of the country's water desalination and power generation capacity, leaving Utico with a very small market share. Utico has 600 customers including manufacturing companies, port operators, government utilities in the small UAE states, hotels, palaces, quarries and private entities. However, it currently has capacity of only 31 million gallons per day (mgpd) of desalinated water, from four plants in the northern emirate of Ras al Khaimah. To more than double capacity it is building a new plant and upgrading two existing plants. The new plant is under construction in Ras al Khaimah with a capacity of 24 mgpd, in a joint venture with Spain's Grupo Cobra, for an investment outlay by the partners of $196 million. The Utico plants being upgraded will add a total of 10 mgpd with investment of $68 million, Managing Director Richard Menezes told reporters. "The new plant as well as the two upgrades will be operational at full capacity by October 2018, when Utico's total capacity will be 65 mgpd," he said. Financing for the plants will be partly through a $150 million club loan from three local banks - Emirates NBD, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Commercial Bank of Dubai - and the remainder through equity, Menezes said. An infrastructure fund incorporated in the Bahrain Financial Centre is taking a minority stake in Utico valued at around $50 million, he said without elaborating. The company has won regulatory approvals to build a clean coal power plant in Ras al Khaimah at an estimated cost of $500 million in a joint venture with Shanghai Electric Group Corp . "Some packages will go out to tender soon and we are seeking project finance," Menezes said, adding that completion was scheduled for 2019.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 UAE : RAK Gas company has its eye on gas supply from Malawi The National - Gavin du Venage +Malawian Wachdog A variety of minerals and even gas may be available in economically exploitable quantities. Running close to the length of the country is Lake Malawi, a body of fresh water nearly 600 kilometres long. Indications are that beneath its placid waters lies gas. Among those interested in finding it is Rak Gas, a UAE operator controlled by Ras Al Khaimah, and tasked with supplying the emirate with a consistent and secure supply of energy. It is also serves to generate growth and revenues for its government. Rak Gas has in recent years begun early stage exploring in various sub-Saharan states. These include Somalia, offshore Zanzibar and Lake Malawi. In Malawi Rak Gas has just conducted environmental impact assessments and what is termed full tensor gravity gradiometry surveys that are a precursor to exploration drilling. Gravity gradiometry is used by hydrocarbon and mineral prospectors to measure the density of the subsurface, effectively the rate of change of rock properties. From this information it is possible to build a picture of subsurface anomalies which can then be used to more accurately target oil, gas and mineral deposits. And oil may be available – an Australian company poking around under the lake in the 1980s said it found signs that there could be as much as four billion barrels to be had. Getting it to the surface, though, will take some doing as some of the oil blocks overlap the Lake Malawi National Park, a World Heritage Site. According to local press reports, Lake Malawi is divided into six segments for oil and gas exploration with block 1 awarded to Sac Oil of South Africa in 2012. Blocks 2 and 3 were awarded to the British firm Surestream Petroleum in 2011, but in 2013 Egypt’s El Hamra Oil acquired a 51 per cent stake in the Surestream licences. Blocks 4 and 5 were awarded to Rak Gas in July 2013 and the sixth block went to Ghana’s Pacific Oil. The Malawi government of Peter Mutharika, who was voted into power during a fiercely contested election in 2014, will have to work hard convincing environmentalists that exploiting the lake can be done safely. He will also have to demonstrate to a wary public that the proceeds of oil or gas production can be used to further the interests of the country as a whole. There is also a disagreement with Tanzania, which shares the north-east shore of the lake, over which the boundary between the two countries lies. Tanzania is claiming half the lake is in its territory, which Malawi disputes. Mr Mutharika has strong incentives to solve these issues. Malawi is one of the world’s poorest countries, heavily dependent on peasant farming. According to the UN’s International Fund for Agricultural Development more than half the population is classified as rural poor. About 30 per cent of its GDP and 85 per cent of export revenues come from agricultural activity. The country itself has a GDP of just US$S6.5 billion.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 It is also struggling at the moment with drought. Government research showed that 6.5 million people, nearly half of Malawi’s population, will require food assistance until the next harvest season. Malawi therefore needs every extra dollar it can get. Which is why Mr Mutharika wants to press ahead with energy extraction, even though the price of oil and gas is not particularly buoyant at this time. The controversial Lake Malawi oil exploration project is divided into six blocks for the exploration and production of Petroleum. Exploration licence for blocks 2 and 3 were issued to a British Company called Surestream Limited. RAK gas MB45 Limited—a state owned oil company for the Ras Al Khaima Emirate in the United Arab Emirates—was given licence for blocks 4 and 5. Block 6’s exploration licence was issued out to Pacific Oil Limited whereas Block 1 was licensed to SacOil, a South African company. Hamra Oil Malawi Limited was also in operation as Surestream later farmed its blocks to this Company in a joint operating agreement as Surestream had no enough capacity to carry out the work. Hamra Oil Malawi Limited is a Company controlled by the Emir of Ras Al Khaima. The mess which government has discovered is that three licences were issued to this Emir of Ras Al Khaima controlled companies as the Mutharika administration learnt that Rak gas MB45 Limited, Pacific Oil Limited and Hamra Oil Limited are companies controlled by one group designed to get a Lions share of the oil blocks by using any trick in or outside the book. Authorities noted that one Kamal Ataya (Arab), who happens to be the Chief Executive Officer for Rak Gas also signed an application for an exploration license for Pacific Oil Limited on 1stJune, 2013 and the same guy was also behind the licence for Hamra Oil Malawi Limited. In November last year, government ordered all companies licensed to explore for oil and gas to “immediately cease all operations in relation to the granted oil and gas exploration licences until a review that is currently underway, regarding the manner and procedures that were followed [in issuance of licences], is finalised.”
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Botolo said the meeting was arranged to give the oil firms “ the Attorney General and the stance of the Malawi Government.” He said officials will be consulting legal experts for guidance, saying by not attending the meeting, the firms show that “maybe they are not interested in the business.” Rak Gas general manager for its Malawi operations Chimwemwe Chikusa however told The Nation that the company asked the ministry to shift the meeting to the end of this month because key officials had pre-arranged engagements they could not suddenly cancel but that they afre “ eager to meet government” and conclude the matter. Malawi suspended oil and gas exploration licences pending a review of some issues government was concerned with. The review was initially planned to take a month from November 2014. It is now seven months—and counting. The exploration of oil on Lake a Malawi is still a contentious issue as locals from the lake shore districts protest the move claiming the project has the potential to kill fish which they depend for a living while on the other side, there is still a heated argument which has not been resolved with neighbouring Tanzania which claims that half of the Lake is hers contrary to Malawi claims that she wholly own the Lake. Social commentators also argue that even if the oil explorations can continue, the proceeds from such an activity can obviously not going to benefit the people of this impoverished southern African nation but few elites as evidenced by the raw deal Malawians have been given by their ever greedy politicians since time immemorial. For example, commentators cite the example of Kayerekera Uranium mine in Karonga which has only benefited those from the corridors of power, leaving even the district itself poorer than it was in 1964 when Malawi got independent from her colonizer, Britain. Rak Gas—owned by the Government of Ras Al Khaimah, one of the UAE emirates—has carried out Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (FTG) with all the processes duly approved by the Malawi Government. Hamra—a Cayman Island Origin private company which bought 51 percent into Blocks Two and Three from Surestream, also concluded its FTG. Pacific Oil, which is part of Vega Petroleum Limited—the privately owned oil and gas entity that has oil producing and exploration concessions in Egypt—is yet to launch an FTG on Block Six.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Kuwait to Raise Gasoline Prices to Counter Oil Revenue Plunge Bloomberg - Zaid Sabah ZaidSabahShare on FacebookShare on Twitter Kuwait’s government approved an increase in prices of gasoline sold locally, becoming the latest oil-rich Arab nation to cut subsidies as lower crude prices squeeze finances. The OPEC member will increase the price of the lowest octane gasoline to 85 fils per liter (30 cents) starting September, state-run news agency KUNA reported. The prices of the two higher gasoline grades will be raised to 36 cents and 56 cents per liter, it reported. The new prices were agreed after an “exhaustive study,” and are in line with average rates in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, the government said. The plunge in oil prices has prompted members of the six-nation GCC to revise the generous benefits their citizens traditionally enjoyed, and forced them to tap the international bond market to plug their deficits. Kuwait plans to raise as much as $9.9 billion internationally and 2 billion dinars locally. Oil has slipped about 20 percent from its recent peak in early June, skirting a bear market and ending a recovery that saw prices almost double from a 12-year low in February. Brent crude was trading at $42.2 per barrel at 6:58 p.m. in Kuwait City. Kuwait is also taking steps to diversify its economy away from oil, a goal shared by major crude exporters including neighboringSaudi Arabia. The measures include introducing corporate taxes and merging state entities to downsize the government. Non-oil revenue will reach 1.6 billion dinars, or 15 percent of total revenues, in the fiscal year which started in April, according to government estimates.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 India Seeking Merger Model for Possible State-Run Oil Champion Bloomberg - Saket Sundria India is open to discussing a merger of some of its state-run oil producers and refiners to create a larger, stronger national firm, according to the country’s oil minister. The government is seeking the appropriate model for combining India’s state-run oil companies and hasn’t decided on any plan, Dharmendra Pradhan said in New Delhi on Monday. The combined market capitalization of India’s top eight state-owned oil and gas companies is about $80 billion, ranking a combined entity ninth among global oil firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “I am open to a discussion on merging oil companies,” Pradhan said. “There are two schools of thought. Whether we have a single entity or we have entities like we have today. We should find out a way of what should be the future model.” India is set to emerge as the world’s third-largest oil consumer by the end of this year and will be the center of global growth through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. It’s upstream production is dominated by Oil and Natural Gas Corp., which operates independently of its biggest refiner, Indian Oil Corp. The Press Trust of India reported Sunday that the government is deliberating on the issue of merging the companies, citing Pradhan. India had considered a similar proposal about a decade ago, but didn’t pursue any consolidation, R.S. Sharma, a former chairman of ONGC, said Monday.
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Petrovietnam Gas, Bitexco, Tokyo Gas Establish LNG Vietnam PV Gas Petrovietnam Gas (PV Gas), Bitexco and Tokyo Gas have established a joint venture entity, LNG Vietnam. According to a statement by PV Gas, the newly formed entity came in existence on August 1, 2016. State owned PV Gas believes LNG Vietnam will smoothen the imports of the fuel and help diversifying the supply of gas in the rapidly growing domestic market. The new entity will also look at exporting LNG to markets in the region. As per the agreement PV Gas would hold 51% stake in LNG Vietnam, Bitexco will own 39% and Tokyo Gas 10%. Earlier this year, PV Gas and Tokyo Gas had signed an agreement to extend the MoU for the comprehensive cooperative relationship on the development of LNG value chain in Vietnam. Demand for gas in expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia and Vietnam is no exception. LNG is in demand as an energy source for industrial parks around Ho Chi Minh City in the country's south. There are plans to build LNG facilities, including at the port of Thi Vai near the city, Nikkei added. Expectation of robust energy consumption growth has attracted other global majors to the region as well. In May, Italy’s Enel and the Japan’s Marubeni Corporation said they will together explore for opportunities in the gas generation sector in the Asia-Pacific region. Energy landscape in Southeast Asia is undergoing a major shift as domestic demand continues to race ahead. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), as domestic natural gas demand outpaces indigenous production, intra-regional and intra-country trade increases, Southeast Asia will turn into a net gas importer of around 10 bcm by 2040, compared with net exports of 54 bcm in 2013. IEA says electricity demand would almost triple by 2040, an increase greater than the current power output of Japan. Although coal still remains the dominant fuel, greater focus on pollution reduction will lead to demand growth in gas fired power plants.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 NewBase 02 August 2016 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE US crude oil edges back over $40, but oversupply still weighs Reuters + NewBase Oil prices edged up in early trading on Tuesday after U.S. crude broke below $40 per barrel the previous session, but traders said fuel markets continued to be dogged by excess production. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $40.16 a barrel at 0148 GMT, up 10 cents from its last close after dipping below $40 for the first time since April the previous session. International Brent crude oil futures were trading at $42.34 per barrel, up 20 cents from their last close. Despite the slightly higher prices early on Tuesday, analysts said that overproduction in crude as well as the refining sector was still weighing on markets. As a result, refiners will likely reduce orders for new crude feed stocks, putting more short-term downside pressure on prices, and instead start to draw down on brimming inventories. "Crude demand growth will soften as throughput in the refining sector moderates in reaction to low margins. This should result in greater fuels stock draws, but at the expense of slowing the downtrend in crude stocks," BMI Research said in a note to clients. In a sign of glutted markets, Singapore's light distillates stocks are around 15 million barrels, up from 13 million barrels in late June, and close to record levels. As a result of the oversupplied market, Singapore's overall fuel refinery margins are now averaging around $3.50 per barrel, a mere third of their 2016 highs from January. Financial oil traders have taken note of the physical oversupply, with hedge funds taking on large volumes of bets that would profit from lower prices. Oil price special coverage
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 "The latest (U.S. regulatory) CFTC data show that speculators increased their shorts (aka bearish bets) by the biggest volume on record in last week's data for WTI crude. This is the biggest increase since data began back in 2006, dragging the net long position in WTI to its lowest since February," said Matt Smith of U.S.-based ClipperData in a note. "Another bearish development from the CFTC data has been gasoline positioning. Speculative positions in gasoline have moved to a record net short position as hedge funds bet on an ongoing gasoline supply glut," he added. Emerging Markets' Treacherous Oil Slick Bloomberg - Christopher Langner So, oil's in a bear market again. The good news for emerging market investors is that this time their assets aren't tracking its descent. Unfortunately, history and statistics suggest this may not last. Crude has fallen more than 20 percent from a peak reached in June, with Saudi Arabia cutting prices on Asian shipments and further increases in U.S. drilling sparking a 3.7 percent tumble in the West Texas Intermediate benchmark on Monday. Yet emerging market stocks and bond indexes are still holding on to recent gains. Oil often leads the prices of other commodities, which are key to major emerging economies such as Russia, Brazil or South Africa. Hence, it makes sense that their assets would suffer when the black stuff loses value. The 10-day correlations between oil and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as well as the Bank of America Merrill Lynch EM corporate bond and high-yield indexes have all turned negative and are at some of their lowest levels this year.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 The 10-day correlation between oil and emerging market bond and stock indexes has dropped to the lowest this year Curb your enthusiasm, though. Over the past five years, the measure has on average been positive. That means that unless oil reverses course and starts rallying, emerging market bonds and stocks are likely to revert to the averages and start following black gold down. The sticky stuff is still treacherous for this asset class. Growing Oil Glut Shows Investors There’s Nowhere to Go But Down Bloomberg - Mark Shenk They increased bets on falling crude by the most ever as stockpiles climbed to the highest seasonal levels in at least two decades, nudging prices toward a bear market. The excess supply hammered the second-quarter earnings of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. Inventories are near the 97-year high reached in April as oil drillers boosted rigs for a fifth consecutive week. “The rise in supplies will add more downward pressure,” said Michael Corcelli, chief investment officer at Alexander Alternative Capital LLC, a Miami-based hedge fund. “It will be a long time before we can drain the excess.” Hedge funds pushed up their short position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 38,897 futures and options combined during the week ended July 26, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It was the biggest increase in data going back to 2006. WTI dropped 3.9 percent to $42.92 a barrel in the report week, and traded at $40.23 at 12:02 p.m. WTI fell by 14 percent in July, the biggest monthly drop in a year. The decline since early June was 21 percent in intraday trading. A settlement more than 20 percent off the high would characterize a bear market.
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 U.S. crude supplies rose by 1.67 million barrels to 521.1 million in the week ended July 22, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Stockpiles reached 543.4 million barrels in the week ended April 29, the highest since 1929. Gasoline inventories expanded for a third week to 241.5 million barrels, the most since April. “The flow is solidly bearish,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “It reflects a recognition that the market is, at least for the time being, oversupplied.” Exxon and Chevron missed profit and production estimates last quarter, earnings data showed July 29. The biggest U.S. energy companies followed Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc in posting lower profits as crude’s collapse continued to weigh on the industry. Rig Count U.S. oil explorers have boosted the number of active rigs by 58 since the start of June to 374, with three added last week, Baker Hughes Inc. said July 29. American producers have expanded drilling in recent weeks after idling more than 1,000 oil rigs since the start of last year. Money managers’ short position in WTI rose 28 percent to 180,134 futures and options, CFTC data show. Longs, or bets on rising prices, increased 0.9 percent, while net longs tumbled 23 percent to the lowest since February. In the Brent market, money managers trimmed bullish bets by 9,072 contracts in the week, according to data from ICE Futures Europe. Bets that prices will rise outnumbered short positions by 288,536 lots, the least since February, the London-based exchange said. In other markets, net-bearish bets on gasoline surged to a record 5,078 contracts. Gasoline futures fell 2.2 percent in the report week. Net-long wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel dropped 23 percent to 12,742 contracts, the lowest since May. Futures slipped 4.2 percent.
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 U.S. refineries cut operating rates in the week ended July 22, the EIA said. The processors usually don’t begin to curb output until August as the summer driving season nears its end. The crack spread, a measure of profit margins from refining crude into fuel, fell the past four months, data compiled by Bloomberg show. There’s further room for crude prices to drop amid expectations for worsening of refining margins, according to a Barclays Plc report e-mailed Aug. 1. Although refineries along the U.S. East Coast have already begun to trim operations "we think there is more pain to come for refineries," analysts including Michael Cohen said in the report. Refineries typically slow during September and October to perform maintenance. Over the past five years, their demand for oil has dropped an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from July to October. “Money managers are net short gasoline by a record amount,” Evans said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the net shorts increased for another week, but on an intermediate perspective, you have to watch out. Gasoline looks oversold given its historic behavior.”
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 01 August 2016 Russian Economy Is Stuck and it is not Get out out of recession Bloomberg - Evgenia Pismennaya After focusing almost exclusively on foreign policy since early 2014, the need to get the economy back into gear is forcing the Russian president to face a painful choice: bow to the demands of the markets or protect his Kremlin-centered system. “Putin makes political and geopolitical decisions confidently, but delays on the economic ones because they are harder for him,” said Yevgeny Yasin, a former economy minister. “Serious, decisive measures are needed” to get the economy out of its current stagnation, he said. “But I get the feeling the president isn’t ready for them.” The worst of the contraction -- the longest of Putin’s 16-year rule -- appears over. But even Kremlin officials admit there’s no sign of anything on the horizon to drive much of a rebound, barring a jump in oil prices, something few forecasters expect. Seeking Advice Low crude prices have cut deeply into government revenues and U.S. and European Union sanctions have limited access to capital, putting out of reach the kind of stimulus that got the economy back on track after the last recession in 2009. The central bank says there’s no room to ease credit quickly, either, with inflation over 7 percent. Businesses and consumers are still cutting spending. For a Quicktake explainer on the political impact of Putin’s economic troubles, click here. In the last few months, Putin has convened a pair of high-level advisory panels to come up with ideas to accelerate the economy. He says he’s targeting growth of 4 percent a year, well above the 1.2 percent economists expect next year. That’s still far below the rates seen during his first two terms in 2000-2008, when surging oil prices pushed the economy into overdrive. Continued stagnation is also a threat to his geopolitical ambitions, as it leaves less to spend on a big military buildup.
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 Divisions have already appeared between the wide range of specialists pitching ideas on how to revive the economy, according to officials and others involved in the process. That’s in contrast to his handling of the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, where he has relied on a tight circle of his closest aides for counsel. The most prominent of the economic advisers is Alexei Kudrin, credited with laying the foundations for fiscal stability as finance minister from 2000-2011. His appointment in April to a top role on one of the Kremlin panels raised hopes that Putin might back Kudrin’s calls for reducing state control over the economy to stimulate private business and cutting the budget deficit to bring down inflation. The International Monetary Fund endorsed that recipe in its annual review of Russian economic policy earlier this month. Magic Wand But so far, the president seems to be seeking more of a magic wand to get the economy again, much as surging oil prices did in the mid-2000s, the people involved in the discussion said. The kinds of steps Kudrin has proposed risk alienating powerful people in state-run businesses by reining in their reach and undermining public support if government spending is cut. Both are risky as Putin heads into elections in 2018. “They can write a radical program that’s politically impossible, but then all that will be taken from it is what will work. The rest they won’t take,” said Oleg Vyugin, a former top central bank and finance ministry official who also sits on one of the Kremlin advisory panels. “Kudrin has been given a mandate, but for the moment, it’s not worth anything,”
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 In his latest role, Kudrin has been assigned only to craft a program for Putin’s next presidential term. His efforts to broaden the mandate to include current policy have so far been blocked, according to senior officials. Last year, he discussed taking a top Kremlin or government job with Putin, but couldn’t agree on broad enough powers. The Kudrin panel “is first of all about theory,” said Alexey Repik, an entrepreneur and business lobbyist who is a member of both the advisory groups. Putin has ordered a group of economists who back what they’ve dubbed “quantitative easing, Russian-style,” to prepare a detailed program based on their proposal for a 1.5-trillion-ruble ($22.5 billion) annual stimulus plan. Their state-led investment plan is the opposite of Kudrin’s call for controlling government spending to allow the private sector to drive growth.
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Putin is likely to cherry-pick ideas from the rival camps to minimize public discontent and keep key elite groups happy rather adopt a broader strategy, the people involved in the process said. The result can seem contradictory. Privatizations this year, for example, were supposed to reduce the government’s role in the economy. But major state-owned companies and funds have emerged among the potential bidders for some of the assets. The second panel Putin set up, a special commission on “priority projects” to help boost growth in the short term, is relying on the kind of top-down direction the Kremlin has long favored. “The priority is national projects, for which the money still has to be found,” said Sergey Dubinin, a former central bank chief who’s now on the board of VTB Bank. “And priorities like that require manual control,” he added, referring to the kind of heavy-handed state management that pro-market economists like Kudrin argue is a major barrier to growth. A Bloomberg survey of economists found that most thought oil would have to stay below $40 a barrel for an extended period in order to force the Kremlin into politically painful changes. When Putin named him to the advisory role this spring, Kudrin said he would push for aggressive overhauls. “My goal is to show that there won’t be economic growth if we don’t reform institutions,” he said in May. Putin’s reaction to the proposals was cool, according to participants in a Kremlin meeting at the time. He rejected any suggestion that he should make concessions to reduce tensions with the West in an effort to ease economic pressure. “Putin has an awful lot of other concerns,” said Boris Titov, who heads a business lobby and attended the advisory panel session with Kudrin in May. “Even at that meeting, he talked mostly about foreign policy.”
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 26 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 02 August 2016 K. Al Awadi
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18