Hoe goed voorspelt de net promotor score toekomstige groei? Een vergelijking met de voorspellende waarde van klanttevredenheid. Uit een UvA college over marketing theories.

1. Theories of Marketing
Net promotor score
Ed Peelen
Ed.Peelen@icsb.nl
1

2. Loyalty
 Behavioral and attitudinal
 Driving top line growth (turn over)
 Driving profitable growth
2

3. Customer Loyalty: top line growth (p48 Reichheld)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Year
Annualcustomerprofit
Pricepremium
Referrals
Cost savings
Revenuegrowth
Baseprofit
Acquisitioncost
Source: Reichheld

4. Current practice
 Focus on retention:
 relates to profit, not growth
 switch costs and retention (lock in effect)
 Focus on customer satisfaction:
 ACSI (200 cy): no strong correlation with
outstanding sales growth; outlier: K-mart
(sales drop)
 Dealer: no relationship with growth and profit4
Too import not to
be measured

5. The ultimate question
 How likely are you to recommend our
organisation to a friend or colleague? (on a
scale of 0 to 10)
© ICSB Marketing en Strategie
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Extremely
likely
Not at all
likely
What is the primary reason for your rating ?

6. Research
 N (Q1, 2001): 400 companies, >12 industries,
15,000 responses – ultimate question (2 yrs)
 Desk research: revenue growth data (3 yr
period; 2 yr nps was measured and one prior yr)
 Analysis: Δnps versus revenue growth
6
Keiningham et al: three target industries; nine other
industries small sample size

7. 7

8. NPS and firm value
 50 organizations, different industries:
average growth rate doubled by improving NPS
with 12 points
 Median NPS for 400 service industries: 12%;
highest scores >= 80%

9. Keiningham
 NPS
 Even being presented to investors
 Reichhelds research not been subject to
rigorous scientific scrutiny and peer review
 Morgan and Rego (2006): different data and
miscalculation
 This study: NCSB (Norway), 21 firms, 15,500
response (intention, recommendation,
satsfaction) + subset of Reichheld’s dataset 9

10. Critics Reichheld: current research
 1% increase in American Customer Satisfaction
Index (ACSI) (0-100 scale) correlates with $275
million increase in the firm’s value (1.016%, on
average, measured by Tobin’s Q)
Tobin’s Q = Market
value/Asset value
Further: Gruca and Rego; Fornell et al; ACSI correlates with Casf Flow, Shareholder
Value by reducing variability

11. © ICSB Marketing en
Strategie

13. HIER NOG EEN KREET

14. Managerial relevance
X is a company to recommend X is a company to return to

15. Managerial relevance
Elements that promotors appreciate
Root cause analysis
Relate to processes
Process metrics
Process owners
Improvement programs

16. One study…
Financial sector US
 The difference between the intention to
recommend and the actual behavior: 70% says
they will; 44% actually does
 42% of the recommendation attempts is
effective: a prospect will come in
 77% of the prospects becomes a customer
Kumar, Petersen, Leone, 2010