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NewBase Energy News 23 April 2018 - Issue No. 1163 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Adnoc Distribution, UAE's biggest fuel distributor, said on Sunday it has secured a trade licence to
operate in Saudi Arabia, its first foray outside the home market as the kingdom's planned phasing
out of fuel subsidies attracts retailers.
The retail brand of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was "committed to opening one
service station in Saudi Arabia in 2018," it said in a statement.
Adnoc floated its fuel retail business in December on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange as it
looked to build a leaner business model. Adnoc Distribution, which has also targetted Dubai for
expansion, grew its net profit 6.8 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter on the back of higher
oil prices and an increase in fuel sales. The company holds around 67 per cent of the UAE market
share by number of retail fuel service stations.
Saudi Arabia's municipal and rural affairs ministry, which regulates the kingdom's fuel stations,
issued the award in Riyadh. The kingdom said in its budget for 2018 in December that it would raise
domestic prices for gasoline and jet fuel in this year as it looks to phase out subsidies completely
by 2025.
The move has opened doors for private players such as Adnoc Distribution to enter the fray with
more competitive fuel offerings. Adnoc Distribution, which holds a virtual monopoly in Sharjah and
Abu Dhabi, has been targetting growing its footprint, with rollout of at least 13 new fuel stations this
year, besides an expansion of three existing facilities.
UAE Adnoc Distribution will shine soon in Saudi Arabia
The National -Jennifer Gnana
Adnoc Distribution, the UAE’s largest fuel and convenience retailer, has been
awarded a license to own, operate and manage fuel service stations in the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Courtesy Adnoc
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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The fuel retailer currently operates 360 service stations and 235 Oasis convenience stores, making
it the biggest operator in the segment. The company also leases retail and other space at its service
stations to tenants that include fast food chains such as McDonald’s, Burger King and KFC.
The distributor announced a tie-up in March with food retail group Urban Foods to open Géant-
branded stores at a number of its service stations.
The company, which listed on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange in December, will rollout at
least 13 new service stations this year, and extend three of its existing facilities, the
company said on Wednesday.
Expansion into Dubai, the only emirate where the company has no physical presence, is
now feasible for the company following changes to how fuel is priced were introduced
across the UAE in August 2015, said Saeed Al Rashidi, Adnoc's acting chief executive
officer.
"Fuel products were subsidized until August 2015, so prior to that no one actually wanted
to invest because it was a loss-making business," Mr Al Rashidi told The National.
"Since August 2015, we have wanted to expand and enter the market in Dubai. We are
definitely well positioned from a logistics and supply chain point of view as we have the
infrastructure."
As part of its focus on profitability, Adnoc Distribution has reduced capital expenditure
on a per site basis; projected capex costs for some future service stations have been
reduced by as much as 40 per cent, without cutting corners on health and safety
considerations, according to Mr Al Rashidi.
Adnoc Distribution currently operates 360 service stations and 235 Oasis convenience
stores across the UAE, with the exception of Dubai, holding a monopoly in Sharjah and
Abu Dhabi. Enoc and Emarat are the only operators in Dubai.
Through a franchise model, Adnoc Distribution will open a service station in Saudi Arabia
this year, the company said, giving no details regarding its partner there.
The franchise venture will be the first of its kind for the company, which had previously
explored such a model with Saudi Arabia's Al Olaibi Group for service stations in Riyadh,
Makkah and Madinah.
Adnoc Distribution sold 10 per cent of the company in December in an initial public
offering on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange. The listing, which valued the company at
Dh31.1 billion, was the first to be held on the bourse in over six years.
Priced at Dh2.5 per share, the retail portion of the listing was 22 times oversubscribed.
The company's shares have risen 7.6 per cent since their listing to Dh2.69, compared
with a 5.6 per cent rise for the Abu Dhabi's headline index over the same period.
Goldman Sachs, EFG Hermes, HSBC and AlphaMena all initiated coverage of the stock
this week with "buy" recommendations, with target prices ranging between Dh2.79-3.40.
Morgan Stanley, which also began coverage this week, gave the stock an "equal weight
/ attractive" rating, with a target price of Dh2.95.
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Libya’s Oil Output Slumps After Fire at Pipeline to Key Port
Bloomberg - Salma El Wardany
An attack on an oil pipeline supplying Libya’s biggest export terminal has reduced the North African
country’s production by at least 80,000 barrels a day and would take several days to repair, the
National Oil Corp. said Sunday.
The impact of the fire, which Waha Oil blamed on “terrorist actions,” underscores the fragility of
Libya’s oil recovery. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries member has struggled to
boost production amid the lingering effects of political divisions and conflict that flared in 2011.
A joint venture partly owned by the NOC, Waha Oil pumped about 300,000 barrels a day last month
but Saturday’s attack resulted in a fire on a pipeline connecting the Waha deposit in eastern Libya
to Es Sider export terminal. The blaze was contained soon after midnight, the NOC said in a
statement on its website.
Libya’s oil output has rebounded from 370,000 barrels a day two years ago, but has hovered at
around 1 million barrels a day during stable periods and remains well below the 1.8 million that Libya
pumped before the ouster and death of Moammar Qaddafi. Sporadic disruptions at major oil fields
including Sharara and El-Feel have occasionally set back the revival.
Home to Africa’s largest crude oil reserves, Libya pumped 990,000 barrels a day in March, data
compiled by Bloomberg show.
Es Sider is scheduled to load 14 crude cargoes in May, according to a loading plan obtained by
Bloomberg. The tanker Panagia Armata is to arrive at the Mediterranean port on April 25, and no
loading instructions are available, according to a person familiar with the situation who asked not to
be identified because the matter isn’t public.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Mauritania & Senegal Golar enters preliminary deal to provide
FLNG for BP’s West African project
The Bermuda-based LNG shipping giant Golar LNG said on Thursday that it has entered into a
preliminary deal with units of BP in Mauritania and Senegal for the provision of a floating LNG
producing unit.
Golar said in a
statement it
exchanged heads of
terms for a charter
deal with BP
Mauritania
Investments and BP
Senegal Investments
in their capacity as
block operators.
The heads of terms
represent a
commitment
between the parties
to translate the key
commercial terms
into a full agreement
and proceed with front-end engineering design (FEED) on the provision of an FLNG vessel to
support the development of Phase 1A of the Greater Tortue / Ahmeyin field, located offshore
Mauritania and Senegal, the statement said.
The preliminary deal creates obligations on Golar to progress FEED work and be ready for a vessel
conversion from July 1, 2018 onwards; which would be contingent on project FID, expected end
2018, it said.
The vessel conversion would take place at Keppel Shipyard building on Keppel’s delivery of the
FLNG Hilli Episeyo, utilizing Black and Veatch Corporation’s PRICO technology. The deal also
includes an option for BP on a second FLNG vessel. In the event that FID is not taken customary
termination fees apply, Golar said.
The Tortue discovery was made by Kosmos Energy, which farmed down its investment to BP in
December 2016. BP now has the largest interest (60 percent) among the four partners in the project
and is the operator.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5
Global: LNG import growth highest since 2010
GIINGL
The international group of liquefied natural gas importers (GIIGNL), reported the highest rise in LNG
supply since 2010. Global imports of liquefied natural gas in 2017 reached 289.8 million tons,
jumping 9.9 percent compared to the previous year.
The organization noted only one country, Malta, entered the importers’ circle in 2017 bringing the
total number to 40, while the exporting countries number remained at 19.
The surge in LNG supply was driven by new production from Australia (+10.7 MT) and from the
United States (+9.6 MT) as well as by the better performance of existing liquefaction plants in
Algeria, Angola and Nigeria (+6.2 MT).
In opposite direction, supplies from the Middle East decreased by 2.3 MT as a result of scheduled
and unscheduled maintenance in Qatar.
Out of the five new onshore liquefaction trains coming online in 2017, two were in Australia and the
United States each with one starting up in Russia. Malaysia’s giant Petronas added the only floating
liquefaction train of the year.
The Pacific Basin remains the largest source of LNG supplies with 131.4 MT or 45.3 percent of the
global market, followed by the Middle East (31.5 percent) and the Atlantic Basin (23.2 percent). Due
to the decline in production from Qatar, the gap between supplies from the Pacific Basin and the
Middle East has widened, from 25 MT in 2016 to 40 MT in 2017, while the gap between the Atlantic
Basin and the Middle East narrowed from 42.2 MTPA to 24.2 MT.
On the import side, Japan remained the top importer with 83.5 MT or a 28.8 percent market share,
followed by China (39 MT) that saw its imports climb by 42.3 percent overtaking South Korea
despite the latter showing an increase in imports underpinned by demand in the power sector.
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Power generation sector pushed European net imports up 19.5 percent in 2017, the American
region saw a 4.1 percent rise while the Middle East was the only region reporting imports decline
by 9.1 percent.
Spot and short-term imports have also experienced a rise during the year under review reaching
77.5 MT in 2017 combined, up from 75.5 MT in 2016, although the share in total LNG imports
remained flat at around 27 percent, GIINGL’s report reads.
In 2017 a total of 2.6 MT of LNG was re-exported from 12 countries to 20 destination countries,
down from 4.5 MT in 2016 because of narrower price differentials between markets for much of the
year and due to the increased availability of destination flexible LNG.
India’s March LNG imports rise 16.8 pct
India’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose 16.8 percent in
March on a yearly basis, following a drop in February, according to
the latest data from oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis
Cell (PPAC).
India imported 2.51 billion cubic meters of LNG or about 1.86 million tonnes
last month.The costs of these imports were at $0.9 billion compared to $0.6 billion in March last
year, the PPAC data shows. India’s domestic natural gas production rose 1.2 percent to 2.78 Bcm.
In the April-March period, India imported 26.4 Bcm or about 19.55 million tonnes of LNG, a rise of
7.1 percent on the year.
LNG imports for the financial year 2017-18 were the highest ever for India, PPAC said.
India currently imports LNG via Petronet’s Dahej and Kochi LNG terminals, Shell’s Hazira plant, and
the Dabhol terminal operated by Ratnagiri Gas and Power.
China LNG imports
China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose in March as the country continued its switch
from coal to natural gas as fuel for heating.China imported 3.25 million tonnes of LNG, up 64.2
percent from March 2017, according to the General Administration of Customs data.
These imports dropped 0.74 million tonnes when compared to the previous month.In total, the
country’s LNG imports rose 60 percent for the first three months of this year to 12.4 million tonnes,
the data showed.
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USA: Fuel cell power plants are used in diverse ways across the US
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Annual Electric Generator Report
At the end of 2016, the United States had 56 large-scale fuel cell generating units greater than 1
megawatt (MW), totaling 137 megawatts (MW) of net summer capacity. Most of this capacity (85%)
has come online since 2013. Fuel cells collectively provided 810,000 megawatthours (MWh) of
electricity in 2016, representing 0.02% of total U.S. electricity generation.
Fuel cell systems typically produce hydrogen gas from hydrocarbon fuels such as natural gas using
thermochemical processes such as steam reforming. The hydrogen reacts with oxygen across an
electrochemical cell similar to that of a battery to produce electricity and water.
Although nearly 85% of fuel cell capacity in 2016 used natural gas, fuels such as landfill gas or
biogas from the decomposition of sewage at wastewater treatment plants were also used,
potentially allowing the generation from fuel cells to qualify for renewable portfolio standards in
certain states.
Fuel cell power plants are sometimes used for backup power at small facilities such as hospitals.
They can also be used to operate data centers for large private corporations that have committed
to consuming 100% of their electricity from renewable sources.
Commercial and industrial sector fuel cell power plants are sometimes used in combined heat and
power application, meaning they produce heat and steam in addition to electricity. Overall combined
heat and power applications made up 26 MW of the 137 MW operating in 2016; the rest provided
only electricity.
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Fuel cell capacity factors in 2016 ranged significantly, reflecting a wide operating range for these
fuel cells. Some were operated infrequently: 8 of the 50 plants in operation for all of 2016 had a
capacity factor of 30% or lower, likely reflecting limited-use applications such as peak shaving or
back-up capacity.
Some were operated more frequently: about 25% of fuel cell generators had capacity factors
exceeding 85%, likely reflecting primary power supply applications.
Fuel cells with combined heat and power applications typically had much lower capacity factors than
those that delivered electricity only, with median capacity factors of 44% and 81%, respectively.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Annual Electric Generator Report, Form
EIA-923, Monthly Power Plant Report
In 2016, 36% of total U.S. fuel cell capacity was in California, which has a number of incentives for
distributed generators such as fuel cells. Fuel cell generating units in Connecticut accounted for
27% of U.S. 2016 fuel cell capacity, and plants in Delaware accounted for 22%. Both states allow
fuel cells with nonrenewable fuel to meet requirements for renewable portfolio standards. The
remaining fuel cell power plants are located in North Carolina and Utah.
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NewBase April 23 - 2018 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil slightly dips as U.S. drilling tempers otherwise bullish sentiment
Reuters + Bloomberg + NewBase
Oil prices dipped on Monday as a rising U.S. rig count implied further increases in output, marking
one of the few factors tamping back crude in an otherwise bullish environment.
Brent crude futures were at $73.91 per barrel at 0630 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent
from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 18 cents,
or 0.3 percent, at $68.22 a barrel.
“We expect for oil prices to recede slightly today as market anticipates on the prospect of rising
production in the U.S.,” Singapore-based Phillip Futures said on Monday. U.S. drillers added five
rigs drilling for new production in the week ended April 20, bringing the total to 820, the highest
since March 2015, according Baker Hughes energy services firm.
The rising rig numbers point to further increases in U.S. crude production, which is already up by a
quarter since mid-2016 to a record 10.54 million barrels per day (bpd). Only Russia produces more,
at almost 11 million bpd.
Oil price special
coverage
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Despite slipping on Monday, overall the oil market remains well supported, especially by strong
demand in Asia. Brent is up by 20 percent from its 2018 low in February.
Prices are also being supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) that were introduced in 2017 to prop up the market.
“Added price pressure comes from U.S. sanctions against the key oil exporting nations of
Venezuela, Russia and Iran,” said J.P. Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Kerry
Craig. He was referring to action the U.S. government has taken on Russian companies and
individuals, as well as on potential new measures against struggling Venezuela and especially
OPEC-member Iran.
The United States has until May 12 to decide whether it will leave the Iran nuclear deal and instead
impose new sanctions against Tehran, including potentially on its oil exports, which would further
tighten global supplies.
The U.S. trade action against Russia and, potentially, against Iran has resulted in a slump in
Russia’s ruble and Iran’s rial.
This means costs for any imported goods become more expensive for its citizens or companies, but
it has also pushed up the value of Russia’s and Iran’s oil sales as all of their production costs are in
the local currencies, while foreign sales are largely made in the U.S. dollar.
The generally elevated oil prices have also sparked a spat between U.S. President Donald Trump
and producer cartel OPEC.
Trump on Friday accused OPEC of “artificially” boosting oil prices, threatening on Twitter that this
“will not be accepted”, drawing rebukes from several of the world’s top oil exporters within OPEC.
U.S. Gasoline prices, a good indicator
“Gasoline prices are rising in the U.S. ahead of the summer driving season and he wants someone
to blame,” said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc. in Chicago. As Trump
tries to push prices down and OPEC pushes them higher, that “creates an opportunity for traders,”
he said.
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Gasoline prices at the pump have climbed on the back of rising demand and increasing oil costs for
refineries. While Trump criticized OPEC for bolstering prices in his tweetFriday, the rally has been
largely supported by geopolitical tensions that he has exacerbated, such as fears that sanctions
against Iran may be renewed.
“Without a doubt there’s probably more gas price increases yet to come,” said Patrick DeHaan,
head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.com. “For maybe a couple more weeks prices may move
higher.”
DeHaan sees retail gasoline prices reaching $3 a gallon for a third to half of the U.S. in the coming
weeks, up from an average of $2.76 currently.
Global oil demand growth in the first three months of this year is forecast to reach 2.55 million barrels
a day, the strongest year-on-year expansion since 2010, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note
April 19. Higher prices will only cause a “modest deceleration” in gasoline demand, Goldman said.
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release April 23-2018
OPEC Can Live With Tweets So Long as Venezuela Gets Worse
Pushing oil prices higher is risky when the cartel no longer holds all the cards.
By Liam Denning + CNBC + NewBase
What explains President Donald Trump's Friday-morning focus on restrictive commodity
agreements? Your guess is as good as mine.
Mine, for what it's worth, would have something to do with the fact that gasoline is already north of
$3 a gallon in Washington, D.C., and the sun only just came out on the East Coast after a winter
worthy of Game of Thrones. The prospect of an even more expensive summer driving season,
leading into mid-term elections Republicans dread already, merits one or two angry tweets at least.
And while there are, of course, hundreds of thousands of Americans employed in producing oil and
gas, their ranks pale somewhat against more than 212 million licensed drivers, most of whom can
also vote.
In any case, the president is right in one respect: Oil prices are artificially high. That's what restrictive
commodity agreements are for. Indeed, one almost has to admire the chutzpah of OPEC ministers
pushing back on the president's assertion on Friday ... on the sidelines of a meeting where they
decided to continue holding barrels off the market to support prices.
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OPEC, and in particular its de facto leader Saudi Arabia, is playing a risky game here by pushing
for even higher oil prices (see this). And that's partly because the Middle East no longer holds all of
the wild cards in the global oil game. Washington's unpredictability is a bigger factor than it used to
be.
The president isn't likely to tweet about this, of course, but uncertainty about what will happen with
the Iran nuclear agreement, for example, is one factor pushing up prices. Another is Venezuela.
It is shocking how much of OPEC's success in clearing the glut of oil inventories is owed to the
misery of one of its founding members. In March, compliance among the original 11 members who
signed up for cuts in November 2016 was very high, at 170 percent. Within that, though, Venezuela's
was more than 600 percent.
The real story lies in the cumulative numbers.
In theory, these 11 countries should have collectively withheld about 530 million barrels from the
market from January 2017 through the end of last month, of which Venezuela should have
accounted for about 8 percent. According to OPEC's figures, however, they actually withheld 599
million barrels; and Venezuela was responsible for more than 17 percent of that bigger amount.
Dubious Accolade
Venezuela's cumulative compliance with supply cuts started off weak but it has soared since last
fall
Source: OPEC, Bloomberg Gadfly analysis
Note: Data as per secondary sources published in OPEC's monthly reports. Excludes Equatorial Guinea,
Libya and Nigeria.
The past six months or so clearly marked a tipping point, coinciding with the rally in oil prices.
In absolute terms, Saudi Arabia has cut more barrels than any other member versus its
baseline output -- as you would expect of the largest producer by far. What is really striking,
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however, is the comparison of absolute outperformance; that is, how many extra barrels OPEC
members have withheld over and above their targets. On that measure, Venezuela has actually
moved into the, er, number one slot:
Excessive Restraint
Even in absolute terms, Venezuela's production cuts beyond the targets agreed in 2016 have
overtaken those of Saudi Arabia
Source: OPEC, Bloomberg gadfly analysis
Note: Cumulative cuts in oil production beyond targets agreed in November 2016.
Despite Venezuela's production having dropped by almost 550,000 barrels a day since the end of
2016, it could easily keep going down.
And one big catalyst for that could be, you guessed it, tougher sanctions from Washington. These
look likely given the extreme unlikelihood of fair elections in Venezuela next month. It's not clear
what form sanctions might take. But the elevation of hawks such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo
in the Trump administration suggests harsher options, such as banning U.S. imports of Venezuelan
crude oil altogether, could be on the table.
As ClearView Energy Partners rightly pointed out in a recent report, such a ban might simply shift
those barrels elsewhere rather than take them off the market completely -- albeit likely at a discount.
Still, further revenue reductions would exacerbate Venezuela's economic pain, serving to
undermine the prospects for oil production, too.
As for the president's tweet, there's no telling how that factors into what happens. It might betray
discomfort with the idea of doing anything to push pump prices even higher over the summer.
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Equally, it could just be preemptive finger-pointing to direct drivers' anger elsewhere. And, equally,
it may not add up to anything substantive at all.
What is clear is that supply squeezes, both planned and unplanned, are now an essential element
of the oil rally. That's why OPEC can't bring itself to end its cuts, and also why it risks alienating
consumers everywhere, not just on Pennsylvania Avenue.
There's a lot to evaluate in that statement, so CNBC broke it down and checked the president's facts.
"Looks like OPEC is at it again": What is OPEC doing and why?
OPEC worked out a deal with Russia and several other nations at the end of 2016 to remove 1.8
million barrels a day from the market. The two dozen oil-producing countries agreed to limit their
production to clear a glut of crude that sent prices from more than $100 a barrel in 2014 to about
$26 in 2016.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, actually refused to take action at first, arguing that the glut
was caused by a flood of new U.S. oil production. The Saudis instead bet that U.S. drillers with high
production costs would be forced to cut output, and that would drain the oversupply.
Instead, American drillers cut costs, kept pumping and oil prices continued to fall. That heaped
pressure on nations and U.S. states that depend on oil revenue, bankrupted about 200 American
energy companies and wiped out hundreds of thousands of jobs.
After prices bottomed in 2016, OPEC worked out the deal with Russia and began limiting its output
in January 2017. The producers have since extended the agreement to run through the end of this
year.
Are there really "record amounts of Oil all over the place"?
Yes and no, but mostly no.
While U.S. oil output has recently risen to all-time highs above 10 million barrels a day, many of the
world's biggest oil producers are purposely limiting their production and pumping below record
levels.
OPEC's output caps have also shrunk the amount of oil sitting in storage around the world. The
group's goal is to whittle down stockpiles in developed countries to the five-year average.
Those inventories stood at just 30 million barrels above that level in February, the International
Energy Agency said last week. These stockpiles peaked in 2016 and have since fallen.
What about "the fully loaded ships at sea"?
Trump could have meant several things when he said this, but this part of the tweet is misleading.
Oil shipped by sea is actually down 48 million barrels from a peak at the start of the year, according
to data from tanker-tracking firm ClipperData. The amount of crude loaded on ships around the
globe averaged 50 million barrels a day last month, down from a record 52 million barrels a day
last July.
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While U.S. exports have recently hit highs above 2 million barrels a day, top oil exporter Saudi
Arabia has cut its shipments to help balance the market.
Traders also store oil in floating tankers, but here too, those levels are down 25 percent from their
high in the middle of 2017.
"Storage at sea has dropped, which is what you would expect because the market is in
backwardation, which disincentivizes storage, be it onshore or offshore," said Matt Smith, director
of commodity research at ClipperData
So are oil prices "artificially Very High"?
That's up for debate.
Trump's accusation may have been fueled by recent reports that Saudi Arabia would like oil prices
to rise to $80 to $100 a barrel. Those higher prices would support the planned stock market debut
of the kingdom's energy giant, Saudi Aramco, industry sources who spoke to Saudi officials told
Reuters and Bloomberg.
Some analysts are doubtful that's official Saudi policy, but the reports have fueled speculation that
the Saudis will lobby against winding down the production deal even if that's what's best for the
market. That could cause prices to spike as the world's appetite for oil outstrips supply.
But if Trump is criticizing the OPEC deal itself, that would make him something of an outlier. The
market generally sees the agreement as a necessary measure that stopped a devastating price
crash. OPEC is viewed less as a manipulator and more of a manager.
It's worth noting that Trump and his polices are at least partially responsible for oil prices hitting
their highest levels in more than three years in recent weeks. His decision to launch air strikes in
Syria this month contributed to geopolitical tension in the Middle East. His threat to restore sanctions
on Iran next month has also raised fears about supply disruptions from OPEC's third biggest
producer.
Is OPEC's price support "No good"?
That depends on who you ask.
Oil-producing nations and energy companies surely welcome higher oil prices, which have stabilized
their finances and returned many drillers to profit after years of pain.
But the rebound means higher prices at the pump. A gallon of regular gasoline is currently fetching
an average $2.75 at U.S. filling stations, up from $2.42 a year ago, according to AAA.
However, there's an argument to be made that the best thing for both consumers and producers is
stability. Sky-high oil prices hurt consumers and ultimately shrink demand for fuel, while super low
prices discourage energy companies from making investments in future production, which can lead
to undersupply and price spikes.
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
OPEC's action "will not be accepted": What can Trump do?
Unlike many oil-producing nations, the U.S. government can't tell drillers how much to produce.
That means Trump can't ask companies to flood the market to offset OPEC's production cuts. Even
if he could, American drillers are already pumping at all-time highs.
The Trump administration has developed a close relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman, so it's possible he will appeal directly to the kingdom to change its policy.
The U.S. president also controls the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a stockpile of emergency crude
supplies that currently stands at 665.5 million barrels. The government sometimes sells oil from the
reserve to raise revenue, but it would be unprecedented for a sitting president to threaten to use
the SPR as a weapon.
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk
Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations
base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in
Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas
compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences
in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating
stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase April 2018 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
Thank you for sharing with us your comments and thoughts on the above issue, similarly we would like to
share with our daily publications on Energy news via own NewBase Energy News -
Call us for details khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Your Energy Consultant for the GCC area
Khaled Al Awadi
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
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Ne base 23 april 2018 energy news issue 1163 by khaled al awadi-

  • 1. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 23 April 2018 - Issue No. 1163 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Adnoc Distribution, UAE's biggest fuel distributor, said on Sunday it has secured a trade licence to operate in Saudi Arabia, its first foray outside the home market as the kingdom's planned phasing out of fuel subsidies attracts retailers. The retail brand of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was "committed to opening one service station in Saudi Arabia in 2018," it said in a statement. Adnoc floated its fuel retail business in December on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange as it looked to build a leaner business model. Adnoc Distribution, which has also targetted Dubai for expansion, grew its net profit 6.8 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter on the back of higher oil prices and an increase in fuel sales. The company holds around 67 per cent of the UAE market share by number of retail fuel service stations. Saudi Arabia's municipal and rural affairs ministry, which regulates the kingdom's fuel stations, issued the award in Riyadh. The kingdom said in its budget for 2018 in December that it would raise domestic prices for gasoline and jet fuel in this year as it looks to phase out subsidies completely by 2025. The move has opened doors for private players such as Adnoc Distribution to enter the fray with more competitive fuel offerings. Adnoc Distribution, which holds a virtual monopoly in Sharjah and Abu Dhabi, has been targetting growing its footprint, with rollout of at least 13 new fuel stations this year, besides an expansion of three existing facilities. UAE Adnoc Distribution will shine soon in Saudi Arabia The National -Jennifer Gnana Adnoc Distribution, the UAE’s largest fuel and convenience retailer, has been awarded a license to own, operate and manage fuel service stations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Courtesy Adnoc
  • 2. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 The fuel retailer currently operates 360 service stations and 235 Oasis convenience stores, making it the biggest operator in the segment. The company also leases retail and other space at its service stations to tenants that include fast food chains such as McDonald’s, Burger King and KFC. The distributor announced a tie-up in March with food retail group Urban Foods to open Géant- branded stores at a number of its service stations. The company, which listed on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange in December, will rollout at least 13 new service stations this year, and extend three of its existing facilities, the company said on Wednesday. Expansion into Dubai, the only emirate where the company has no physical presence, is now feasible for the company following changes to how fuel is priced were introduced across the UAE in August 2015, said Saeed Al Rashidi, Adnoc's acting chief executive officer. "Fuel products were subsidized until August 2015, so prior to that no one actually wanted to invest because it was a loss-making business," Mr Al Rashidi told The National. "Since August 2015, we have wanted to expand and enter the market in Dubai. We are definitely well positioned from a logistics and supply chain point of view as we have the infrastructure." As part of its focus on profitability, Adnoc Distribution has reduced capital expenditure on a per site basis; projected capex costs for some future service stations have been reduced by as much as 40 per cent, without cutting corners on health and safety considerations, according to Mr Al Rashidi. Adnoc Distribution currently operates 360 service stations and 235 Oasis convenience stores across the UAE, with the exception of Dubai, holding a monopoly in Sharjah and Abu Dhabi. Enoc and Emarat are the only operators in Dubai. Through a franchise model, Adnoc Distribution will open a service station in Saudi Arabia this year, the company said, giving no details regarding its partner there. The franchise venture will be the first of its kind for the company, which had previously explored such a model with Saudi Arabia's Al Olaibi Group for service stations in Riyadh, Makkah and Madinah. Adnoc Distribution sold 10 per cent of the company in December in an initial public offering on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange. The listing, which valued the company at Dh31.1 billion, was the first to be held on the bourse in over six years. Priced at Dh2.5 per share, the retail portion of the listing was 22 times oversubscribed. The company's shares have risen 7.6 per cent since their listing to Dh2.69, compared with a 5.6 per cent rise for the Abu Dhabi's headline index over the same period. Goldman Sachs, EFG Hermes, HSBC and AlphaMena all initiated coverage of the stock this week with "buy" recommendations, with target prices ranging between Dh2.79-3.40. Morgan Stanley, which also began coverage this week, gave the stock an "equal weight / attractive" rating, with a target price of Dh2.95.
  • 3. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Libya’s Oil Output Slumps After Fire at Pipeline to Key Port Bloomberg - Salma El Wardany An attack on an oil pipeline supplying Libya’s biggest export terminal has reduced the North African country’s production by at least 80,000 barrels a day and would take several days to repair, the National Oil Corp. said Sunday. The impact of the fire, which Waha Oil blamed on “terrorist actions,” underscores the fragility of Libya’s oil recovery. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries member has struggled to boost production amid the lingering effects of political divisions and conflict that flared in 2011. A joint venture partly owned by the NOC, Waha Oil pumped about 300,000 barrels a day last month but Saturday’s attack resulted in a fire on a pipeline connecting the Waha deposit in eastern Libya to Es Sider export terminal. The blaze was contained soon after midnight, the NOC said in a statement on its website. Libya’s oil output has rebounded from 370,000 barrels a day two years ago, but has hovered at around 1 million barrels a day during stable periods and remains well below the 1.8 million that Libya pumped before the ouster and death of Moammar Qaddafi. Sporadic disruptions at major oil fields including Sharara and El-Feel have occasionally set back the revival. Home to Africa’s largest crude oil reserves, Libya pumped 990,000 barrels a day in March, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Es Sider is scheduled to load 14 crude cargoes in May, according to a loading plan obtained by Bloomberg. The tanker Panagia Armata is to arrive at the Mediterranean port on April 25, and no loading instructions are available, according to a person familiar with the situation who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public.
  • 4. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Mauritania & Senegal Golar enters preliminary deal to provide FLNG for BP’s West African project The Bermuda-based LNG shipping giant Golar LNG said on Thursday that it has entered into a preliminary deal with units of BP in Mauritania and Senegal for the provision of a floating LNG producing unit. Golar said in a statement it exchanged heads of terms for a charter deal with BP Mauritania Investments and BP Senegal Investments in their capacity as block operators. The heads of terms represent a commitment between the parties to translate the key commercial terms into a full agreement and proceed with front-end engineering design (FEED) on the provision of an FLNG vessel to support the development of Phase 1A of the Greater Tortue / Ahmeyin field, located offshore Mauritania and Senegal, the statement said. The preliminary deal creates obligations on Golar to progress FEED work and be ready for a vessel conversion from July 1, 2018 onwards; which would be contingent on project FID, expected end 2018, it said. The vessel conversion would take place at Keppel Shipyard building on Keppel’s delivery of the FLNG Hilli Episeyo, utilizing Black and Veatch Corporation’s PRICO technology. The deal also includes an option for BP on a second FLNG vessel. In the event that FID is not taken customary termination fees apply, Golar said. The Tortue discovery was made by Kosmos Energy, which farmed down its investment to BP in December 2016. BP now has the largest interest (60 percent) among the four partners in the project and is the operator.
  • 5. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Global: LNG import growth highest since 2010 GIINGL The international group of liquefied natural gas importers (GIIGNL), reported the highest rise in LNG supply since 2010. Global imports of liquefied natural gas in 2017 reached 289.8 million tons, jumping 9.9 percent compared to the previous year. The organization noted only one country, Malta, entered the importers’ circle in 2017 bringing the total number to 40, while the exporting countries number remained at 19. The surge in LNG supply was driven by new production from Australia (+10.7 MT) and from the United States (+9.6 MT) as well as by the better performance of existing liquefaction plants in Algeria, Angola and Nigeria (+6.2 MT). In opposite direction, supplies from the Middle East decreased by 2.3 MT as a result of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance in Qatar. Out of the five new onshore liquefaction trains coming online in 2017, two were in Australia and the United States each with one starting up in Russia. Malaysia’s giant Petronas added the only floating liquefaction train of the year. The Pacific Basin remains the largest source of LNG supplies with 131.4 MT or 45.3 percent of the global market, followed by the Middle East (31.5 percent) and the Atlantic Basin (23.2 percent). Due to the decline in production from Qatar, the gap between supplies from the Pacific Basin and the Middle East has widened, from 25 MT in 2016 to 40 MT in 2017, while the gap between the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East narrowed from 42.2 MTPA to 24.2 MT. On the import side, Japan remained the top importer with 83.5 MT or a 28.8 percent market share, followed by China (39 MT) that saw its imports climb by 42.3 percent overtaking South Korea despite the latter showing an increase in imports underpinned by demand in the power sector.
  • 6. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Power generation sector pushed European net imports up 19.5 percent in 2017, the American region saw a 4.1 percent rise while the Middle East was the only region reporting imports decline by 9.1 percent. Spot and short-term imports have also experienced a rise during the year under review reaching 77.5 MT in 2017 combined, up from 75.5 MT in 2016, although the share in total LNG imports remained flat at around 27 percent, GIINGL’s report reads. In 2017 a total of 2.6 MT of LNG was re-exported from 12 countries to 20 destination countries, down from 4.5 MT in 2016 because of narrower price differentials between markets for much of the year and due to the increased availability of destination flexible LNG. India’s March LNG imports rise 16.8 pct India’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose 16.8 percent in March on a yearly basis, following a drop in February, according to the latest data from oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). India imported 2.51 billion cubic meters of LNG or about 1.86 million tonnes last month.The costs of these imports were at $0.9 billion compared to $0.6 billion in March last year, the PPAC data shows. India’s domestic natural gas production rose 1.2 percent to 2.78 Bcm. In the April-March period, India imported 26.4 Bcm or about 19.55 million tonnes of LNG, a rise of 7.1 percent on the year. LNG imports for the financial year 2017-18 were the highest ever for India, PPAC said. India currently imports LNG via Petronet’s Dahej and Kochi LNG terminals, Shell’s Hazira plant, and the Dabhol terminal operated by Ratnagiri Gas and Power. China LNG imports China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose in March as the country continued its switch from coal to natural gas as fuel for heating.China imported 3.25 million tonnes of LNG, up 64.2 percent from March 2017, according to the General Administration of Customs data. These imports dropped 0.74 million tonnes when compared to the previous month.In total, the country’s LNG imports rose 60 percent for the first three months of this year to 12.4 million tonnes, the data showed.
  • 7. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 USA: Fuel cell power plants are used in diverse ways across the US Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Annual Electric Generator Report At the end of 2016, the United States had 56 large-scale fuel cell generating units greater than 1 megawatt (MW), totaling 137 megawatts (MW) of net summer capacity. Most of this capacity (85%) has come online since 2013. Fuel cells collectively provided 810,000 megawatthours (MWh) of electricity in 2016, representing 0.02% of total U.S. electricity generation. Fuel cell systems typically produce hydrogen gas from hydrocarbon fuels such as natural gas using thermochemical processes such as steam reforming. The hydrogen reacts with oxygen across an electrochemical cell similar to that of a battery to produce electricity and water. Although nearly 85% of fuel cell capacity in 2016 used natural gas, fuels such as landfill gas or biogas from the decomposition of sewage at wastewater treatment plants were also used, potentially allowing the generation from fuel cells to qualify for renewable portfolio standards in certain states. Fuel cell power plants are sometimes used for backup power at small facilities such as hospitals. They can also be used to operate data centers for large private corporations that have committed to consuming 100% of their electricity from renewable sources. Commercial and industrial sector fuel cell power plants are sometimes used in combined heat and power application, meaning they produce heat and steam in addition to electricity. Overall combined heat and power applications made up 26 MW of the 137 MW operating in 2016; the rest provided only electricity.
  • 8. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Fuel cell capacity factors in 2016 ranged significantly, reflecting a wide operating range for these fuel cells. Some were operated infrequently: 8 of the 50 plants in operation for all of 2016 had a capacity factor of 30% or lower, likely reflecting limited-use applications such as peak shaving or back-up capacity. Some were operated more frequently: about 25% of fuel cell generators had capacity factors exceeding 85%, likely reflecting primary power supply applications. Fuel cells with combined heat and power applications typically had much lower capacity factors than those that delivered electricity only, with median capacity factors of 44% and 81%, respectively. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Annual Electric Generator Report, Form EIA-923, Monthly Power Plant Report In 2016, 36% of total U.S. fuel cell capacity was in California, which has a number of incentives for distributed generators such as fuel cells. Fuel cell generating units in Connecticut accounted for 27% of U.S. 2016 fuel cell capacity, and plants in Delaware accounted for 22%. Both states allow fuel cells with nonrenewable fuel to meet requirements for renewable portfolio standards. The remaining fuel cell power plants are located in North Carolina and Utah.
  • 9. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 NewBase April 23 - 2018 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil slightly dips as U.S. drilling tempers otherwise bullish sentiment Reuters + Bloomberg + NewBase Oil prices dipped on Monday as a rising U.S. rig count implied further increases in output, marking one of the few factors tamping back crude in an otherwise bullish environment. Brent crude futures were at $73.91 per barrel at 0630 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 18 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $68.22 a barrel. “We expect for oil prices to recede slightly today as market anticipates on the prospect of rising production in the U.S.,” Singapore-based Phillip Futures said on Monday. U.S. drillers added five rigs drilling for new production in the week ended April 20, bringing the total to 820, the highest since March 2015, according Baker Hughes energy services firm. The rising rig numbers point to further increases in U.S. crude production, which is already up by a quarter since mid-2016 to a record 10.54 million barrels per day (bpd). Only Russia produces more, at almost 11 million bpd. Oil price special coverage
  • 10. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 Despite slipping on Monday, overall the oil market remains well supported, especially by strong demand in Asia. Brent is up by 20 percent from its 2018 low in February. Prices are also being supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that were introduced in 2017 to prop up the market. “Added price pressure comes from U.S. sanctions against the key oil exporting nations of Venezuela, Russia and Iran,” said J.P. Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Kerry Craig. He was referring to action the U.S. government has taken on Russian companies and individuals, as well as on potential new measures against struggling Venezuela and especially OPEC-member Iran. The United States has until May 12 to decide whether it will leave the Iran nuclear deal and instead impose new sanctions against Tehran, including potentially on its oil exports, which would further tighten global supplies. The U.S. trade action against Russia and, potentially, against Iran has resulted in a slump in Russia’s ruble and Iran’s rial. This means costs for any imported goods become more expensive for its citizens or companies, but it has also pushed up the value of Russia’s and Iran’s oil sales as all of their production costs are in the local currencies, while foreign sales are largely made in the U.S. dollar. The generally elevated oil prices have also sparked a spat between U.S. President Donald Trump and producer cartel OPEC. Trump on Friday accused OPEC of “artificially” boosting oil prices, threatening on Twitter that this “will not be accepted”, drawing rebukes from several of the world’s top oil exporters within OPEC. U.S. Gasoline prices, a good indicator “Gasoline prices are rising in the U.S. ahead of the summer driving season and he wants someone to blame,” said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc. in Chicago. As Trump tries to push prices down and OPEC pushes them higher, that “creates an opportunity for traders,” he said.
  • 11. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Gasoline prices at the pump have climbed on the back of rising demand and increasing oil costs for refineries. While Trump criticized OPEC for bolstering prices in his tweetFriday, the rally has been largely supported by geopolitical tensions that he has exacerbated, such as fears that sanctions against Iran may be renewed. “Without a doubt there’s probably more gas price increases yet to come,” said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.com. “For maybe a couple more weeks prices may move higher.” DeHaan sees retail gasoline prices reaching $3 a gallon for a third to half of the U.S. in the coming weeks, up from an average of $2.76 currently. Global oil demand growth in the first three months of this year is forecast to reach 2.55 million barrels a day, the strongest year-on-year expansion since 2010, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note April 19. Higher prices will only cause a “modest deceleration” in gasoline demand, Goldman said.
  • 12. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release April 23-2018 OPEC Can Live With Tweets So Long as Venezuela Gets Worse Pushing oil prices higher is risky when the cartel no longer holds all the cards. By Liam Denning + CNBC + NewBase What explains President Donald Trump's Friday-morning focus on restrictive commodity agreements? Your guess is as good as mine. Mine, for what it's worth, would have something to do with the fact that gasoline is already north of $3 a gallon in Washington, D.C., and the sun only just came out on the East Coast after a winter worthy of Game of Thrones. The prospect of an even more expensive summer driving season, leading into mid-term elections Republicans dread already, merits one or two angry tweets at least. And while there are, of course, hundreds of thousands of Americans employed in producing oil and gas, their ranks pale somewhat against more than 212 million licensed drivers, most of whom can also vote. In any case, the president is right in one respect: Oil prices are artificially high. That's what restrictive commodity agreements are for. Indeed, one almost has to admire the chutzpah of OPEC ministers pushing back on the president's assertion on Friday ... on the sidelines of a meeting where they decided to continue holding barrels off the market to support prices.
  • 13. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 OPEC, and in particular its de facto leader Saudi Arabia, is playing a risky game here by pushing for even higher oil prices (see this). And that's partly because the Middle East no longer holds all of the wild cards in the global oil game. Washington's unpredictability is a bigger factor than it used to be. The president isn't likely to tweet about this, of course, but uncertainty about what will happen with the Iran nuclear agreement, for example, is one factor pushing up prices. Another is Venezuela. It is shocking how much of OPEC's success in clearing the glut of oil inventories is owed to the misery of one of its founding members. In March, compliance among the original 11 members who signed up for cuts in November 2016 was very high, at 170 percent. Within that, though, Venezuela's was more than 600 percent. The real story lies in the cumulative numbers. In theory, these 11 countries should have collectively withheld about 530 million barrels from the market from January 2017 through the end of last month, of which Venezuela should have accounted for about 8 percent. According to OPEC's figures, however, they actually withheld 599 million barrels; and Venezuela was responsible for more than 17 percent of that bigger amount. Dubious Accolade Venezuela's cumulative compliance with supply cuts started off weak but it has soared since last fall Source: OPEC, Bloomberg Gadfly analysis Note: Data as per secondary sources published in OPEC's monthly reports. Excludes Equatorial Guinea, Libya and Nigeria. The past six months or so clearly marked a tipping point, coinciding with the rally in oil prices. In absolute terms, Saudi Arabia has cut more barrels than any other member versus its baseline output -- as you would expect of the largest producer by far. What is really striking,
  • 14. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 however, is the comparison of absolute outperformance; that is, how many extra barrels OPEC members have withheld over and above their targets. On that measure, Venezuela has actually moved into the, er, number one slot: Excessive Restraint Even in absolute terms, Venezuela's production cuts beyond the targets agreed in 2016 have overtaken those of Saudi Arabia Source: OPEC, Bloomberg gadfly analysis Note: Cumulative cuts in oil production beyond targets agreed in November 2016. Despite Venezuela's production having dropped by almost 550,000 barrels a day since the end of 2016, it could easily keep going down. And one big catalyst for that could be, you guessed it, tougher sanctions from Washington. These look likely given the extreme unlikelihood of fair elections in Venezuela next month. It's not clear what form sanctions might take. But the elevation of hawks such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo in the Trump administration suggests harsher options, such as banning U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil altogether, could be on the table. As ClearView Energy Partners rightly pointed out in a recent report, such a ban might simply shift those barrels elsewhere rather than take them off the market completely -- albeit likely at a discount. Still, further revenue reductions would exacerbate Venezuela's economic pain, serving to undermine the prospects for oil production, too. As for the president's tweet, there's no telling how that factors into what happens. It might betray discomfort with the idea of doing anything to push pump prices even higher over the summer.
  • 15. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Equally, it could just be preemptive finger-pointing to direct drivers' anger elsewhere. And, equally, it may not add up to anything substantive at all. What is clear is that supply squeezes, both planned and unplanned, are now an essential element of the oil rally. That's why OPEC can't bring itself to end its cuts, and also why it risks alienating consumers everywhere, not just on Pennsylvania Avenue. There's a lot to evaluate in that statement, so CNBC broke it down and checked the president's facts. "Looks like OPEC is at it again": What is OPEC doing and why? OPEC worked out a deal with Russia and several other nations at the end of 2016 to remove 1.8 million barrels a day from the market. The two dozen oil-producing countries agreed to limit their production to clear a glut of crude that sent prices from more than $100 a barrel in 2014 to about $26 in 2016. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, actually refused to take action at first, arguing that the glut was caused by a flood of new U.S. oil production. The Saudis instead bet that U.S. drillers with high production costs would be forced to cut output, and that would drain the oversupply. Instead, American drillers cut costs, kept pumping and oil prices continued to fall. That heaped pressure on nations and U.S. states that depend on oil revenue, bankrupted about 200 American energy companies and wiped out hundreds of thousands of jobs. After prices bottomed in 2016, OPEC worked out the deal with Russia and began limiting its output in January 2017. The producers have since extended the agreement to run through the end of this year. Are there really "record amounts of Oil all over the place"? Yes and no, but mostly no. While U.S. oil output has recently risen to all-time highs above 10 million barrels a day, many of the world's biggest oil producers are purposely limiting their production and pumping below record levels. OPEC's output caps have also shrunk the amount of oil sitting in storage around the world. The group's goal is to whittle down stockpiles in developed countries to the five-year average. Those inventories stood at just 30 million barrels above that level in February, the International Energy Agency said last week. These stockpiles peaked in 2016 and have since fallen. What about "the fully loaded ships at sea"? Trump could have meant several things when he said this, but this part of the tweet is misleading. Oil shipped by sea is actually down 48 million barrels from a peak at the start of the year, according to data from tanker-tracking firm ClipperData. The amount of crude loaded on ships around the globe averaged 50 million barrels a day last month, down from a record 52 million barrels a day last July.
  • 16. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 While U.S. exports have recently hit highs above 2 million barrels a day, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has cut its shipments to help balance the market. Traders also store oil in floating tankers, but here too, those levels are down 25 percent from their high in the middle of 2017. "Storage at sea has dropped, which is what you would expect because the market is in backwardation, which disincentivizes storage, be it onshore or offshore," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData So are oil prices "artificially Very High"? That's up for debate. Trump's accusation may have been fueled by recent reports that Saudi Arabia would like oil prices to rise to $80 to $100 a barrel. Those higher prices would support the planned stock market debut of the kingdom's energy giant, Saudi Aramco, industry sources who spoke to Saudi officials told Reuters and Bloomberg. Some analysts are doubtful that's official Saudi policy, but the reports have fueled speculation that the Saudis will lobby against winding down the production deal even if that's what's best for the market. That could cause prices to spike as the world's appetite for oil outstrips supply. But if Trump is criticizing the OPEC deal itself, that would make him something of an outlier. The market generally sees the agreement as a necessary measure that stopped a devastating price crash. OPEC is viewed less as a manipulator and more of a manager. It's worth noting that Trump and his polices are at least partially responsible for oil prices hitting their highest levels in more than three years in recent weeks. His decision to launch air strikes in Syria this month contributed to geopolitical tension in the Middle East. His threat to restore sanctions on Iran next month has also raised fears about supply disruptions from OPEC's third biggest producer. Is OPEC's price support "No good"? That depends on who you ask. Oil-producing nations and energy companies surely welcome higher oil prices, which have stabilized their finances and returned many drillers to profit after years of pain. But the rebound means higher prices at the pump. A gallon of regular gasoline is currently fetching an average $2.75 at U.S. filling stations, up from $2.42 a year ago, according to AAA. However, there's an argument to be made that the best thing for both consumers and producers is stability. Sky-high oil prices hurt consumers and ultimately shrink demand for fuel, while super low prices discourage energy companies from making investments in future production, which can lead to undersupply and price spikes.
  • 17. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 OPEC's action "will not be accepted": What can Trump do? Unlike many oil-producing nations, the U.S. government can't tell drillers how much to produce. That means Trump can't ask companies to flood the market to offset OPEC's production cuts. Even if he could, American drillers are already pumping at all-time highs. The Trump administration has developed a close relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, so it's possible he will appeal directly to the kingdom to change its policy. The U.S. president also controls the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a stockpile of emergency crude supplies that currently stands at 665.5 million barrels. The government sometimes sells oil from the reserve to raise revenue, but it would be unprecedented for a sitting president to threaten to use the SPR as a weapon.
  • 18. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase April 2018 K. Al Awadi
  • 19. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 Thank you for sharing with us your comments and thoughts on the above issue, similarly we would like to share with our daily publications on Energy news via own NewBase Energy News - Call us for details khdmohd@hawkenergy.net Your Energy Consultant for the GCC area Khaled Al Awadi
  • 20. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20 For Your Recruitments needs and Top Talents, please seek our approved agents below