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IRENA’s Costing Analysis:
Social Acceptance Issues
October 2013
Michael Taylor
mtaylor@irena.org
IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre
COSTING….WHY?
AND….
RELEVANCE TO SOCIAL
ACCEPTANCE
2
Rationale and goals
• Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure,
reliable and affordable energy and access.
• Lack of objective and up-to-date data is a barrier
• Cost declines, rapid for some renewables
• But, decision making is often based on:
 outdated numbers
 opinion, not fact based
• IRENA to strive to become THE source for cost data
• Goals:
 Assist government decision-making, allow more ambitious policies
 Fill a significant information gap
3
Costing and Social Acceptance
• Renewables can meet goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy;
while improving access, environmental results and energy security.
• But at what cost? Critical issues - level and rate of change
• Also how to address misconceptions and misinformation?
 Renewables cost too much…
 They aren’t really getting cheaper….
 High capital costs are a barrier….
 Integrating them costs as much as the renewables themselves…
• Cost work of IRENA can help provide the ammunition to address these
issues
4
MYTH #1
RENEWABLES COST
TOO MUCH…..
5
Power generation:
Key findings
6
• Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for
mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply
• Dramatic cost reductions for Solar PV. Onshore wind
competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential.
Hydropower, geothermal and biomass
more mature but low cost
• Equipment cost declines
and technology improvements
LCOEs are falling
LCOE ranges and averages
7
Hydropower
• Mature technology, flexibility in design in many cases
• Lowest cost electricity of any source in many cases
• Importance will grow with penetration of variable RE
8
Advanced biofuels
9
MYTH #2
THEY AREN’T
REALLY GETTING
CHEAPER
10
The LCOE of wind
© IRENA
2013 11
Higher
capacity
factors from
improved
technology
Wind
turbine
cost
reductions
PV modules prices
12
Future cost reductions:
An aceleration for wind & CSP?
A slowing for solar PV?
13
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, February, 2011
H2 2012
Chinese
turbine prices
2012
An emerging issue:
Balance of system costs and
O&M costs to be a problem?
14
Cost reduction pass-through will be strongly tied to success in reducing BoS costs
Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser, 2012
As equipment costs fall, O&M’s share of LCOE will rise and may slow LCOE
reductions
MYTH #3
HIGH CAPITAL COSTS
ARE A BARRIER TO
RENEWABLES
15
Well only if you have cheap gas
or oil…..
16
Pulversied coal supercritical
Source: IRENA and BREE, 2012
Gas OCGT-CCGT
Nuclear
They can be a barrier full stop! for power generation technologies,
except where abundant oil and gas exist cheaply…
MYTH #4
INTEGRATION
COSTS OFFSET THE
BENEFITS OF
RENEWABLES
17
Integration costs
• Are not yet a global issue or constraint
• 1.3 billion people without access to electricity
• Any system relying on oil-fired generation can integrate
high percentages and still reduce costs
• There are grid-integration benefits in many developing
countries with poor system reliability
• But the issues are real for those early adopters in OECD
• Requires careful co-ordination and planning to minimize
• Using “yesterdays” solution is not the answer
18
Integration costs widely
overstated
19
PV Parity Project: For penetration of 2-18% NO demand response!
NEA (2013) for 10% solar…
PLANS FOR THE
IRENA RENEWABLE
COSTING ALLIANCE
20
Rationale and Plans
• Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit
• Engage with business: The Alliance will work at a technical
level on data and its availability
• Alliance members share, confidentially, their data on real
world project costs
• Entirely voluntary, we work together for mutual benefit
• Establishment period now, offical launch at Assembly
• Goals:
 more data, better data, a greater focus on analysis of
data
21
Who can be a member?
• Anyone with real world renewable project costs and
performance data
• Utilities, project developers, community associations,
individuals, research institutions, banks, development
banks, etc.
• What if I only have one piece of the cost puzzle?
 It depends, talk to us: for instance, data on the cost of
equity and loans very interesting….only installed PV
costs (no CF) in 10 homes in Munich, maybe not…
22
Structure
Member countries:
Steering group for costing analysis focus
One workshop a year
Must nominate institution to deliver data
Quarterly newsletter
Alliance Members:
Provide data, confidentially
One workshop a year
Ability to query the database in detail
Quarterly newsletter
Observers:
Quarterly newsletter
Mailing list for new publications/analysis
23
Renewables are increasingly
competitive, but more needs to
be done to fulfill their potential…
24
IRENA is part of the solution

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Demystifying Renewable Power Generation Costs

  • 1. IRENA’s Costing Analysis: Social Acceptance Issues October 2013 Michael Taylor mtaylor@irena.org IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre
  • 3. Rationale and goals • Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy and access. • Lack of objective and up-to-date data is a barrier • Cost declines, rapid for some renewables • But, decision making is often based on:  outdated numbers  opinion, not fact based • IRENA to strive to become THE source for cost data • Goals:  Assist government decision-making, allow more ambitious policies  Fill a significant information gap 3
  • 4. Costing and Social Acceptance • Renewables can meet goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy; while improving access, environmental results and energy security. • But at what cost? Critical issues - level and rate of change • Also how to address misconceptions and misinformation?  Renewables cost too much…  They aren’t really getting cheaper….  High capital costs are a barrier….  Integrating them costs as much as the renewables themselves… • Cost work of IRENA can help provide the ammunition to address these issues 4
  • 6. Power generation: Key findings 6 • Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply • Dramatic cost reductions for Solar PV. Onshore wind competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential. Hydropower, geothermal and biomass more mature but low cost • Equipment cost declines and technology improvements LCOEs are falling
  • 7. LCOE ranges and averages 7
  • 8. Hydropower • Mature technology, flexibility in design in many cases • Lowest cost electricity of any source in many cases • Importance will grow with penetration of variable RE 8
  • 10. MYTH #2 THEY AREN’T REALLY GETTING CHEAPER 10
  • 11. The LCOE of wind © IRENA 2013 11 Higher capacity factors from improved technology Wind turbine cost reductions
  • 13. Future cost reductions: An aceleration for wind & CSP? A slowing for solar PV? 13 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, February, 2011 H2 2012 Chinese turbine prices 2012
  • 14. An emerging issue: Balance of system costs and O&M costs to be a problem? 14 Cost reduction pass-through will be strongly tied to success in reducing BoS costs Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser, 2012 As equipment costs fall, O&M’s share of LCOE will rise and may slow LCOE reductions
  • 15. MYTH #3 HIGH CAPITAL COSTS ARE A BARRIER TO RENEWABLES 15
  • 16. Well only if you have cheap gas or oil….. 16 Pulversied coal supercritical Source: IRENA and BREE, 2012 Gas OCGT-CCGT Nuclear They can be a barrier full stop! for power generation technologies, except where abundant oil and gas exist cheaply…
  • 17. MYTH #4 INTEGRATION COSTS OFFSET THE BENEFITS OF RENEWABLES 17
  • 18. Integration costs • Are not yet a global issue or constraint • 1.3 billion people without access to electricity • Any system relying on oil-fired generation can integrate high percentages and still reduce costs • There are grid-integration benefits in many developing countries with poor system reliability • But the issues are real for those early adopters in OECD • Requires careful co-ordination and planning to minimize • Using “yesterdays” solution is not the answer 18
  • 19. Integration costs widely overstated 19 PV Parity Project: For penetration of 2-18% NO demand response! NEA (2013) for 10% solar…
  • 20. PLANS FOR THE IRENA RENEWABLE COSTING ALLIANCE 20
  • 21. Rationale and Plans • Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit • Engage with business: The Alliance will work at a technical level on data and its availability • Alliance members share, confidentially, their data on real world project costs • Entirely voluntary, we work together for mutual benefit • Establishment period now, offical launch at Assembly • Goals:  more data, better data, a greater focus on analysis of data 21
  • 22. Who can be a member? • Anyone with real world renewable project costs and performance data • Utilities, project developers, community associations, individuals, research institutions, banks, development banks, etc. • What if I only have one piece of the cost puzzle?  It depends, talk to us: for instance, data on the cost of equity and loans very interesting….only installed PV costs (no CF) in 10 homes in Munich, maybe not… 22
  • 23. Structure Member countries: Steering group for costing analysis focus One workshop a year Must nominate institution to deliver data Quarterly newsletter Alliance Members: Provide data, confidentially One workshop a year Ability to query the database in detail Quarterly newsletter Observers: Quarterly newsletter Mailing list for new publications/analysis 23
  • 24. Renewables are increasingly competitive, but more needs to be done to fulfill their potential… 24 IRENA is part of the solution